Mini Normal 1187: Game Over

[Scumhunter]

We almost certainly have auto win here though I think as long as nintendo is real. Someone hammer.

[pappums rat]

Vote Count 3.1

xvart - 4 (nintendoaddict1, Barry Allen, hiplop, Scumhunter)

Not voting - Heliman, xvart, Valern, Giitah, ace5993


The deadline for Day 3 is 8 P.M. on Friday, July 15, 2011.

With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch.

[xvart]

Okay, so foil was scum, which means ace, SH, bob, or BA could be the other scum on the first wagon. This clears Giitah and Heliman, as neither of them was on the second lynch, yet, two scum were on it. These games usually have three scum, which means that xvart is confirmed scum.

Vote: xvart

You better double check with the mod to make sure there isn't a mod error on your result. Otherwise you are lying scum. I have to give you props on the Sensor fake claim though, even thought it isn't sustainable long term (obviously). As you probably realized, you could have executed it better. Since you will be lynched tomorrow you'll be down one scum member then; so you should have faked the results so that you outted another scum member and given yourself a ton of town cred and you would have been down one scum member that way with a much better chance of lasting long term.

Since NES is faking this result on me it makes me think that his team isn't worried about losing a member if they are going to trade 1v1 so they might have four scum members (so town must have some strength in PRs). Best guess at this point is that BA is scum (someone that, given our day end interactions, archaebob and I probably would have gotten lynched together). If there are four scum, that rounds out as hiplop being the fourth scum member.

OK - report is

hiplop targeted no one

hiplop - looks like I may well have been wrong about you.

How does hiplop not targeting anyone clear him of being scum?

I'm trying to wrap my brain around this, but I think I get it. Bascially, if you accept nintendo's claim as sensor, he has mathematically proven that xvart MUST be scum. There is no other way to read it as the only way xvart can be town is if nintendo is lying about his claim and is therefore scum himself.

In other words, an xvart lynch will tell us a lot no matter which way it flips.

The bolded is spoken like a true scum member who knows I am going to flip town.

Scum team: Foilist, nintendoaddict, (Barry Allen and/or hiplop)

I wanted to get this post out since everyone seems to be thinking a quick lynch is a good idea; but I would like a chance to crunch the numbers a little bit if there are four scum.

[nintendoaddict1]

I have no idea why scum would kill bob over such a strong pr like sensor. /facepalm if nintendo is real.

Guess the Doc listened, then.

@nintendo, bob is dead. it could be BA though I doubt it.

Oh yeah. -_-"

[nintendoaddict1]

Desperate scum is desperate. Trying to bring me down with him.

[ace5993]

Um yeah, not buying this. There's no way in hell nintendo's telling the truth. The role is so blatantly overpowered it's a joke. He has 1 scum "found" and cleared 5 people. On D3. No way. And scum not NK'ing nintendo because there's supposedly a DOCTOR?!? Not possible.

Vote: nintendoaddict1

[nintendoaddict1]

Um yeah, not buying this. There's no way in hell nintendo's telling the truth. The role is so blatantly overpowered it's a joke. He has 1 scum "found" and cleared 5 people. On D3. No way. And scum not NK'ing nintendo because there's supposedly a DOCTOR?!? Not possible.

Vote: nintendoaddict1

There's already so many roles flying around, and you doubt there could be a Doc? Don't outguess the mod, ace.

[Giitah]

All in favour of a mass roleclaim, bold + say I, against, nah.

I

[Giitah]

@ ace -

Yeah maybe. I guess it's a little null.

Who do you think is scum?

Mainly still nintendo, who's way scummier than BA imo. BA/nintendo still aren't on the same side even considering foil is scum, although 814 is not relevant anymore because it assumed whoever targeted you was town. I still think the last post yesterday before the hammer was a HUGE slip from nintendo. I'm interested to see what nintendo comes up with for his sensor report tomorrow.

Aside from those two Giitah's play has been horrible today, all fluff questions/blending in to the crowd and no scumhunting. 830 in particular reads scum to me.

I can't say I disagree. I spent the day lurking and watching for the most part; I didn't find anything worthy to speak mind to, really.

[Giitah]

Okay, that was stretching it a lot in the wrong way. More like I didn't know what to say. >_> Perhaps I ought to read over what kind of bullshit my brain forms when it tries to reword nasty topics.

[xvart]

Obviously you should lynch nintendo tomorrow and then mass claim the following day.

If there it is a 4 man scum team then it looks like this (T:M)
Today - 6:3
Tomorrow - 4:3 (my lynch and NK)
Next Day - 3:2 (nintendo and NK)

So if it is a 4 man scum team on that day I'm guessing the plan was for Barry to fake a track result on a townie to the dead body to finish off the game. Although it is possible that there are only three and they just got busted and realized the Sensor claim was unsustainable long term and had to make the best of it.

Now I'm going to look at the D2 Sensor result and see if anything can be parsed out of that.

[Scumhunter]

Um yeah, not buying this. There's no way in hell nintendo's telling the truth. The role is so blatantly overpowered it's a joke. He has 1 scum "found" and cleared 5 people. On D3. No way. And scum not NK'ing nintendo because there's supposedly a DOCTOR?!? Not possible.

Vote: nintendoaddict1

trying to avoid auto win?

worst case scenario is we lynch nintendo tomorrow and then there is just one scum left.

[xvart]

There's already so many roles flying around, and you doubt there could be a Doc? Don't outguess the mod, ace.

This is a logical fallacy.

[(There are a lot of exposed power roles) THEREFORE (there is a doctor)] is not logically consistent.

If anything, the abundance of roles would mean it is less likely there is a doctor because the town would be way overpowered. Of course, that assumes that nobody is lying about their role, but we both know that isn't true which makes your assumption that there is a doctor even more scum biased because you know the known roles are filled with fake claims so it is possible there is a doctor.

[hiplop]

Okay, that was stretching it a lot in the wrong way. More like I didn't know what to say. >_> Perhaps I ought to read over what kind of bullshit my brain forms when it tries to reword nasty topics.

giitah be a good girl and vote the confirmed scum

[nintendoaddict1]

There's already so many roles flying around, and you doubt there could be a Doc? Don't outguess the mod, ace.

This is a logical fallacy.

[(There are a lot of exposed power roles) THEREFORE (there is a doctor)] is not logically consistent.

If anything, the abundance of roles would mean it is less likely there is a doctor because the town would be way overpowered. Of course, that assumes that nobody is lying about their role, but we both know that isn't true which makes your assumption that there is a doctor even more scum biased because you know the known roles are filled with fake claims so it is possible there is a doctor.

And have you considered that there are scum PR's to balance all of those roles out?

[Barry Allen]

xvart - the more you talk, the scummier you sound. However, how you sound isn't the point. Basically, we have a very interesting situation here. If nintendo is a lying scum as you say, then he has completely backed himself into a corner. He has mathematically left no possibility other than either 1. xvart is scum or 2. nintendo is fake-claiming and therefore scum.

This mean xvart's lynch tells us something really important, because we learn something important for the town either way. Now, xvart's own reaction looks scummy enough to make it more likely than not that nintendo's claim is accurate (I mean, really, pleading for "mod error"?). That's why I'm more than comfortable with my vote. But, if by some chance we are wrong, we have an absolute lock on who needs to be lynched the next day. This is why I don't understand Ace's vote, nor do I understand his reaction.

One last note on the number of powers: If this does turn out to be such a role-heavy round, it has taught me something interesting about mafia rounds. I had always assumed such role-heavy rounds would result in a quick read of reports and a quick win. Instead, it has created intense debate over whether each role exists and whether we should believe a claim. It also opened the door to at least one mafioso (Foilist) fake claiming a town role and almost getting away with it. For today's phase, I'm willing to go along with our sensor, especially knowing that if he isn't what he claims to be, then he's backed himself into a very lynchable corner. I'm leaving my vote on xvart.

[hiplop]

Nah, no way is there a doctor. Scum just went after arch probably underestimated tracker role

[xvart]

As I said yesterday, Giitah is town for this post alone:

You're missing another piece of evidence there, Barry. I don't think we'd only have two scum in a game of 13 players, right?

Pine - 7 (ace5993, Giitah, Scumhunter, archaebob, Barry Allen, Heliman, foilist13)
Barry Allen - 2 (Valern, hiplop)
DemonHybrid - 1 (

Pine

)

Not Voting - LittleGrey,

DemonHybrid

,

nintendoaddict1

DemonHybrid's dead and nintendoaddict has to be town if we're even going to play with this evidence. Pine's also town by death call. That leaves hiplop, Valern, and LittleGrey (Jilyne's replacement) as possible suspects.

This is intentional scumhunting and logical thinking based on available information that would only come from town. It doesn't really matter now since nintendo is lying about all his results, but under the deceitful context of him telling the truth no scum would say this.

[hiplop]

+1 barry. Great post

Xvart, no need to even try. YOU'RE SCUM

[xvart]

And have you considered that there are scum PR's to balance all of those roles out?

You are dodging the point. You are pretending like all the claims are true and you suggest because all the of the available claims there must be a doctor. There is no way, if all the roles are true, that there is a doctor in this setup (but again, we both know not all the roles are true). The only way you would even suggest there being a doctor was because you know there actually might be one because of you know there is at least one person fake claiming (you).

Hey Barry - speaking of dodging questions, how does hiphop not going anywhere last night clear him of being scum????

[xvart]

Barry - you also never answered what sort of flavor you expected to have been associated with a mafia kill if it wasn't "shot."

[Giitah]

I'll actually have to question Nintendo's claim now. There's something very odd here.

If we look at the setup and just assume there are only Townies and Mafia and that the Town and Mafia successfully kill each day & night, here's the best winning sets for a three-man and four-man team of scum.
(Townies:Mafia, starting at Day 1 with everyone alive)

9-4
7-4
5-4
Day 4 opens, Mafia victory (4-4)

10-3
8-3
6-3
4-3
Day 5 opens, Mafia victory (3-3)

Again, this is just in the best scenarios probability wise. I'm going to go look at what happens if even a single scum gets lynched, but I'll leave this - this is important.

I think there is a high possibility we could be dealing with four Mafia, meaning if we mislynch, we lose.

[hiplop]

I doubt theres a 4 man mafia...

[Scumhunter]

I doubt theres a 4 man mafia...

This. Can someone hammer already.

[Giitah]

Hiplop, I'm going to do some number crunching right now and check the probabilities of a three team Mafia winning against ten Townies.

Er... is there any rules against looking at a mod's history? o_O