Newbie 1117(Town Wins)

[verydark]

Wow. Let it be known that I STILL support my vote on BB. And I will NOT be supporting lynches based STRICTLY on inactivity. This is exactly why.

[drmyshottyizsik]

It is now day two, dead line is in (expired on 2011-07-23 21:00:00)

[SomeRandomGuy]

Wow. Let it be known that I STILL support my vote on BB. And I will NOT be supporting lynches based STRICTLY on inactivity. This is exactly why.

VOTE: zMuffinman - i want some responses to the stuff i raised prior to the flip regarding the way your interactions with BB have played out. BBmolla, please also respond to the points where it's relevant.

I'm going to go back and look through Haze's ISO and check where his interactions with people might lead to clues, but i think we all know that kill analysis doesn't give great results that can't be countered with WIFOM to a level that would confuse the best of us.

BB's vanilla claim made him an unlikely target for scum in the last night phase, which unfortunatly means we can't go down the route of 'why didn't scum kill you, unless you are scum' but again that line of enquiry just brings WIFOM also.

[SomeRandomGuy]

Haze only really seemed involved in the Kad / BB thing - opted to vote for Kad and jumped on voided for 'jumping the shark' much like i did. He wasn't active enough to likely be protected and i believe that ultimately led to his death as opposed for any other reason. It occurs to me that a Voided / Muffin scum team is also a possibility, but i'll have to look through their interactions together - it would create a lot of wifom either way voided jumping onto Kad when i don't believe any new evidence against him had really been raised whilst we were waiting on Muffin to hammer seems scummy - were you perhaps scared that with the new posts i had made Muffin would change his mind to BB? Or perhaps you wanted to spread the heat of the hammer between the two of you. Perhaps you're simply town who jumped the gun but please do elaborate.

[SomeRandomGuy]

There are other reasons your hammer on BB was scummy in my eyes btw voided or at least other reasons i could interperate that way, those however I will wait for your first response before talking of.

[Voidedmafia]

Like I said, BB was posting for the better in my eyes, at least enough to make me think he wasn't the lynch. Since I still believed kad to be in contention for the lynch, I switched to him.

Muffin choosing BB over kad would've been pretty contradictory, since all indications prior to my hammer were that muffin thought BB to be town. Even if he was able to express thoughts towards BB being scum and hammered him, either lynch wouldn't have mattered. BB alive or dead would still be able to give information, and with what seems to be more competence, seems to be better off alive rather than dead.

Kad, on the other hand, is much better off dead than alive, so it works out in my mind. Sadly, he doesn't give a whole lot of info with his death, but he definitely was gearing himself to be way more useless alive, much more than BB.

In regards to the hammer itself, I see no problem in putting the hammer down before someone else so long as the logic/reasoning surrounding it is sound. In my case, I believe my reasoning to be sound because, as I've said, BB had shown himself to be townier leading up to this point, while Kad had only slid further downwards. If BB hadn't shown that upwards climb, I probably would've stuck with BB for the potential info we would've (or could've) gotten from his lynch, and been miffed at Muffin if he had stuck to a kad lynch for denying us that info.

[SomeRandomGuy]

You didn't go with an aggressive defence / offence approach and certainly not with the one i had expected you to do esp if scum.

what do you think of BB at the moment? Also, what of Muffin? how about verydarks 'post #350? how do you read it?

Personally I don't like that post at all verydark - a very 'i told you so' attitude which helps with nothing. The fact is the case wasn't solely inactivity, it was also based on the posts he did make when he was active which has also been outlined, it seems a bit of a misrep to state otherwise. In my opinion in the way in which the wagons went assuming for a moment BB is also town, sitting on BB was the safest bet, sit there, criticise the lynch on Kad when he flips and push for the BB lynch in this day phase on the idea it was a more solid case than the Kad one in the previous day. With it being quite obvious for quite some time that it would be Kad eating the lynch it would be the perfect oppertunity, i even would go as far to say, it's exactly what i would have done as scum i'd have just been a bit more subtle with the dislike of kads lynch.

[Voidedmafia]

As I said prior to the hammer, BB is null at the moment. Muffin...Eh, I think I had him as town, but I'd have to recheck that.

As for 350, I'm gonna have to agree with your summary of it, though at the point we were at I would've pushed (and was pushing) the BB lynch because of the information we could've gained rather than just the case (which was probably the most solid case in D1).

However, I do believe you or verydark outlined how some of BB's posts (or parts of them) could be seen as scummy, so I'd have to put that up there and move BB toward leaning scum. However, I don't think he's the lynch for today.

[BBmolla]

Wow. Let it be known that I STILL support my vote on BB. And I will NOT be supporting lynches based STRICTLY on inactivity. This is exactly why.

It was our first ML, and we still have another. Post #355 explains it with the same logic I used. Kad was not going to be killed by the mafia because he wasn't going to help the town, and if he wasn't gotten rid of sooner he could have caused issues later in the game because of his lurking tendencies and his overall unhelpfullness.

VOTE: zMuffinman - i want some responses to the stuff i raised prior to the flip regarding the way your interactions with BB have played out. BBmolla, please also respond to the points where it's relevant.

If you could elaborate on what you want me to respond to, then sure.

[SomeRandomGuy]

VOTE: zMuffinman - i want some responses to the stuff i raised prior to the flip regarding the way your interactions with BB have played out. BBmolla, please also respond to the points where it's relevant.

If you could elaborate on what you want me to respond to, then sure.

Anything from #330 that you think you can explain and anything else from since the day start that you can offer any thoughts on if you feel the need

I'll be honest, i'm actually surprised by the amount of people that could look scummy for some reason due to the wagons and flips, i guess this is the product of getting to people to L-1 and then having to decide between i think that's a situation that I'm going to try and avoid being in in the future.

Bv + Toast: Any thoughts?

[ToastyToast]

1) I withdraw my "hmm" comment from earlier. I had a hunch that verydark was scum, so I looked over his posts again, but not much stood out.

2) Haze was likely killed for being in the middle; no one suspected him, but he wasn't a huge part of the D1 discussion. As such, its hard to track the reasons for the kill.

3) Players I'm going to be looking @ today: Bv and voided/colbalt

[zMuffinMan]

@srg

It's hard to properly explain why I think BB is newb-town at this point, but it makes more sense in light of the recent revelation of his "I was going to claim VT and ask to be lynched" plan. This sort of thing comes from a different style of play and I've seen a fair few newbies coming from a different mafia background with the idea that it's OK to lynch them because they're VT. So far, I've seen none that have flipped scum (although there's an ongoing game I'm in that may prove me wrong on this one).

Apart from that, parts of his ISO just look genuinely town to me. For example, his ISO#14 list of reads early on. Follow that up with ISO#15 (where he says he can't explain his read on Bo), that's something I'd expect from newb-town, not newb-scum. newb-scum I'd be more inclined to believe would at least fabricate something to explain their read. Other examples include his response to verydark in ISO#27 (especially the last part, which really reads town to me) and is ISO#28 (where he asks for further explanation on the toast case - consistent with his previous read on toast, and also not taking the opportunity to sheep onto the bv/muffin votes on toast - there are a few reasons I could think BB-scum would do this, but it really looks town to me).

As for kad, I saw nothing of the sort. None of his posts really gave me any sort of feel for him being town, and there wasn't even any effort to scum hunt. There was just a general lack of involvement in the game, and considering my town read on BB, and the choice given the deadline, I wanted kad dead over BB.

But something is really, really off and I'll be doing some VCA over the next day or so, when I have some time. Either I'm wrong in my town read on BB (and I really don't think I am) or VCA and reading the posts leading up to where we had two L-1 wagons is going to be very, very telling.

[Voidedmafia]

Any thoughts on me hammering before you? Or do you still stand by the pre-night post where you said you prefer to push cases rather than hammer?

Looking over Dark's ISO, most of his earlier stuff is town in lieu of the fact that it was when BB was acting the scummiest in D1. The main area where he starts to look shaky is ISO 10 (post 350), sadly, so most of the work is going to have to be done starting from ISO 10 onwards. There MIGHT be something in ISO 8 (where he says my hammer was a bit like jumping the gun), but I'm still trying to pin down why I think it's odd.

verdark: You said that if Kad flipped town you'd look at me more. How's that coming along?

[zMuffinMan]

Any thoughts on me hammering before you?

no. maybe after I go back and have a look. I want to set aside some time for it while I do VCA to look at it properly, so not right now.

[Haze]

Bah!

Great, I was nightkilled on Night 1 First game ever.
Whatever, Go townie!!

[SomeRandomGuy]

@srg

It's hard to properly explain why I think BB is newb-town at this point, but it makes more sense in light of the recent revelation of his "I was going to claim VT and ask to be lynched" plan. This sort of thing comes from a different style of play and I've seen a fair few newbies coming from a different mafia background with the idea that it's OK to lynch them because they're VT. So far, I've seen none that have flipped scum (although there's an ongoing game I'm in that may prove me wrong on this one).

Apart from that, parts of his ISO just look genuinely town to me. For example, his ISO#14 list of reads early on. Follow that up with ISO#15 (where he says he can't explain his read on Bo), that's something I'd expect from newb-town, not newb-scum. newb-scum I'd be more inclined to believe would at least fabricate something to explain their read. Other examples include his response to verydark in ISO#27 (especially the last part, which really reads town to me) and is ISO#28 (where he asks for further explanation on the toast case - consistent with his previous read on toast, and also not taking the opportunity to sheep onto the bv/muffin votes on toast - there are a few reasons I could think BB-scum would do this, but it really looks town to me).

As for kad, I saw nothing of the sort. None of his posts really gave me any sort of feel for him being town, and there wasn't even any effort to scum hunt. There was just a general lack of involvement in the game, and considering my town read on BB, and the choice given the deadline, I wanted kad dead over BB.

But something is really, really off and I'll be doing some VCA over the next day or so, when I have some time. Either I'm wrong in my town read on BB (and I really don't think I am) or VCA and reading the posts leading up to where we had two L-1 wagons is going to be very, very telling.

I like this explaination, still though i feel you've failed to see some of the contradiction in BB's play for instance the:

'I was going to use the 'so vote me' that Kad did' yet i've shown you his response to that argument when Kad made it and BB didn't seem to like it - infact switching his vote right across - If he thought it to be a valid defence, why would that make him move his vote?

Also that he got less survival orientated, decided he'd go with the soft claim idea and then still backed out the moment he had to - He should have held on to it in my opinion, Kad was always more likely for the lynch - it just seems a little odd - if his aim was to eat the night kill he ended up instead making himself the one least likely to be targetted by it. I mean it may be something newbies here have used BUT the flip-flopping on his potential defence seems - odd? 'i was going to claim VT and asked to be lynched - people thought it was a soft claim so i went with that to draw a night kill and then i just came out as VT'.

All in all however i do like the explaination of your read on him, whether i fully agree with the conclusion you've came to right now aside, I can follow the reasoning.

[BBmolla]

'I was going to use the 'so vote me' that Kad did' yet i've shown you his response to that argument when Kad made it and BB didn't seem to like it - infact switching his vote right across - If he thought it to be a valid defence, why would that make him move his vote?

The "vote me" is not a defense. It's a way of giving up. I was going to give up on the game because it became pretty apparent I was hurting the town more than harming it, so I figured I should just be lynched so that the town could move on. Kad used the defense, but it could also have been a WIFOM. A dangerous WIFOM if your scum, but a WIFOM nonetheless.

Also that he got less survival orientated, decided he'd go with the soft claim idea and then still backed out the moment he had to - He should have held on to it in my opinion, Kad was always more likely for the lynch - it just seems a little odd - if his aim was to eat the night kill he ended up instead making himself the one least likely to be targetted by it. I mean it may be something newbies here have used BUT the flip-flopping on his potential defence seems - odd? 'i was going to claim VT and asked to be lynched - people thought it was a soft claim so i went with that to draw a night kill and then i just came out as VT'.

I absolutely disagree with me going through with the soft claim. There is nothing more scummy then someone who claims a PR when they aren't one. The biggest issue with it is it could have outed a real PR, which would have been all for nothing. I soft claimed it, sure, but only to draw the night kill, not to protect myself.

[BBmolla]

*hurting the town more than helping

[ToastyToast]

@SRG: It seems to me that you are still suspicious of BB, but only based on some gameplay errors rather than scumminess.

[BBmolla]

Need RedCobalt to talk more, he hasn't said anything in 150 posts :/

[SomeRandomGuy]

BB - Red was replaced!
Also, I agree that claiming a PR is or at least usually IS anti-town and town have little to benefit from doing this BUT when you said that your aim at that point was to draw a night kill from the mafia making the plan completely clear was a wasted oppertunity and could be seen as the 'safe' claim for scum. If it were me as a VT and i had seen that people were interprating my post as a possible role claim i'd subtly play it up and when asked to claim I'd explain that 'If I claim, my role or lack thereof will be useless to the town, you'd be as well of lynching me.' You haven't claimed so no one will counter claim your role and worst comes to worst you get lynched for being a bit vague and closed - still that's better than a PR being lynched - although if you thought Kad was scum i can understand why you'd not want to get yourself lynched, still though i believe it to have been certain enough he was going to be lynched regardless.

@SRG: It seems to me that you are still suspicious of BB, but only based on some gameplay errors rather than scumminess.

Well, essentially you're right in a way but scuminess can lead to such gameplay errors. It seems we had 3 possible final cases from BB and i think flip flopping between them isn't a good thing. I mean, when we're at a point that things he does are automatically viewed as 'gameplay errors' when they can also be interpreted otherwise we have a slight problem, let me put forward a few scenarios which could have been the case:

BB began to hint at power role in his defence, his scum team mate seeing that explained it wasn't a good play (and i honestly believe as a scum tactic this early on - it wouldn't have been, not with kad as likely or more so to be lynched) The town power role he claimed (even if it was a duplicate) wasn't necessarily going to counter claim but BB would have made somebody very certain of his scum alignment. So, he decides to go for the safe claim.
A note on this: If he had claimed doctor, and i was doctor for instance i'd have moved my vote from Kad to him - i'd have done so in a way that would hopefully stop the scum from realising it was because of the claim.

As i say, it's not just a case 'gameplay error' but the reasoning that could possibly sit behind it. I'd have expected you to at least realise that, Toasty.

Main suspects for me are hard to list right now, simply because in my mind there's so much possibility still and whilst we have information to work on it can be interprated in a lot of different ways. As Muffin rightly pointed out 'something is really off right now' and whilst i view BB as a possible scum player still I'm not certain of it, the feeling that we're being led on a wild goose chase is quite strong.

Bv - you've gotten quiet, get in here

[bvoigt]

Sorry, I was gone over the weekend.

BBmolla

In addition to the points I mentioned earlier, I'm guessing there was scum on the kad wagon. BB's vote seems like the most probable candidate. He seemed to vote kad more for being unhelpful than being a true scumread. He also contradicted himself about his read on kad: first saying "he's a town member that doesn't care," then saying "I'm getting a dumb read," then saying "he's my scummiest read."

Bv + Toast: Any thoughts?

About anything in particular?

@Toasty: Was your "Hmm" referring to the way verydark criticized the kad lynch before the flip?

[bvoigt]

Er...VOTE: BBmolla

[SomeRandomGuy]

Bv + Toast: Any thoughts?

About anything in particular?

Nope not really, just looking for thoughts

[BBmolla]

Oh lol, first post isn't updated so I saw his name on there and I was like "Hm where has he been?"

In addition to the points I mentioned earlier, I'm guessing there was scum on the kad wagon. BB's vote seems like the most probable candidate. He seemed to vote kad more for being unhelpful than being a true scumread. He also contradicted himself about his read on kad: first saying "he's a town member that doesn't care," then saying "I'm getting a dumb read," then saying "he's my scummiest read."

He seemed like a town member who didn't care, due to him being pretty dumb and unhelpful. He was my scummiest read however, mainly because everyone else seemed town to me. I wasn't lying.

@bv: If I were to be scum, who do you think my partner would be? And if I were to pop up blue, who would be your immediate suspects?

Also, if it's going to cause issues, we can lynch me today just to prove my innocence. It'll be a ML, but it'll clear some things up and allow people to get past me as the obvious scumread.

Thoughts?