Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[ThAdmiral]

@ emp: wait until mod is my vote.
If jilynne does replace in however I think lynching before she has to reread is probably the fairest option.

But

I'm still flipping back-and-forth between whether no-lynching would actually be useful. It could provide information in the admittedly unlikely situation of Iama being the scum, and even if you (emp) are the scum, which is less unlikely but still unlikely, it might provide information as arguably the best move in

that

situation would be for you to kill rhinox.

[Beefster]

Rhinox, Please stop. I'm afraid jilynne beat you to replacing before you had a chance to save yourself. I might have missed a V/LA message- if that was the case, please link to it and I will reverse my decision.

I'm a pretty lazy mod. You should all know that by now.

[jilynne1991]

Ok. I'm town. Don't lynch me. Honestly...what am I supposed to say? It's impossible for me to defend Rhinox's actions. I would suggest that you guys wait to see who dies tonight. If it's MYLO, it might be better for a no lynch.

[jilynne1991]

Wait, if you guys mislynch me, TheAdmiral is making me feel like town doesn't lose. Hmmm...I don't understand what's up with that...

[iamausername]

I can't imagine iama objecting to your rejoining based on his own near miss

Yes, in case it needs to be stated, I would certainly have no objection to Rhinox remaining in the game.

For the record, if Rhinox does not return to his role, I am against the plan of speedlynching his slot to save jilynne the inconvenience of reading up, because, cards on the table, I still really think ThAd is the scum here.

[EmpTyger]

Well, guess that's that re Rhinox/jilynne. But expect me to say a lot about this postgame.

iama:
You're going to need to put a lot more cards on the table.

[iamausername]

Count on it.

[jilynne1991]

I agree with iama that TheAdmiral is scum. I don't think iama is scum, because if he was, he'd find it easier to just go with the flow and get me lynched.

I don't like gambling with 50% chances though. I'd like to vote NoLynch, until I find something that justifies (in my mind) whether Emp is town or scum.

[jilynne1991]

Ok, in my mind, the most helpful strategy would be for everyone to list out why they would for if any of 3 people died at night and who they would for right now. I think we should wait until LYLO.

I'll start.

I'd vote for TheAdmiral or EmpTyger right now. (Still not sure which. Probably TheAdmiral.)

If Iama died, I'd vote for TheAdmiral.

If TheAdmiral died, I'd vote for Iama.

If EmpTyger died, I'd vote for Iama.

This may make tomorrow a little bit WIFOM-y...but I think this is the best strategy at the moment.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
So... what's your play and when is that going to happen, keeping in mind when deadline is? jilynne is desperate for skewering, and I'm not comfortable giving you much more than 24 hours to let you play this out on your own schedule, especially after the futility of yesterday's last minute.

[ThAdmiral]

@ jilynne: that's a terrible plan. Only helpful for the scum.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER ONE

Let's take a good look at t3hkuzinator's posts. He wears his heart on his sarcastic, arrogant sleeve, and as such is by far easier to read than anyone else in this game has been. His responses to the formation of the wagon on him are extremely telling.

Reaction to C-Worl's vote:

Oh really? That's cute that you are trying to look pro-town by telling me that I should learn from playing on here long enough. Ill get back to you on that when I finish my first game on here.

It also amuses me that you are accusing me of fluff considering your 22 is about as devoid of content as it comes. You didn't need to tell me your personal history nor do you need to inform me of the skill level required, but you did anyway. As for the last bit, please continue guessing at the intent behind my posts. You're really making headway.

He's sarcastic and dismissive. He assumes himself to be above C-Worl, and does not consider his vote to be a threat. This is useful as a control group for his reactions to townies voting for him, as we know C-Worl's alignment, of course.

Reaction to Rhinox's vote:

@Rhinox: Overdefensive? It's called I don't let anyone try to take advantage of me. I am known throughout smashboards for doing town gambits. It's just what I like to do because it makes the game more enjoyable/exciting for me. Since this is my first game on the site, I wanted to hear the site-specific view of it. Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me. Also, Iama has a town read on Cworl and his phrasing, not me.

@Iama: Are you honestly clearing CWorl from saying the word scummates instead of scummate? You do realize any half decent scum player could consciously on unconsciously throw that in? What bothers me more is that CWorl actually picked up on where you were going with it before you explained it.

There's other key stuff here too, but first, the Rhinox vote. kuz obviously feels a little more threatened here, and his reaction is a little less dismissive, but it still bears a lot of similarities. He addresses Rhinox directly with a self-aggrandizing paragraph, and is highly defensive and confrontational.

Furthermore, his "Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me." is telling; he perceives the attacks on him as a united front, not as two separate and distinct events. This suggests that there is no difference in the motivation of the two of them in his mind.

Then we have his obvious upset at my pinning C-Worl as town for what he percieved to be invalid reasons. He makes no attempt to disguise his emotions here or anywhere else, and that was his downfall on D1, and I hope it will ultimately prove to be the downfall of his partner too.

Reaction to my vote:

Why do people keep assuming I am upset? lol. Apparently any type of aggressive posting is taken as a sign of being butthurt. It's my playstyle, get over it.

@Rhinox: Or I could have just asked about it in thread, which was much easier.

@IAAUN: Someone had put effort into thinking about something? Must be a town-tell.

Again, sarcastic and dismissive, "it's my playstyle, get over it". That basically sums up his response to all three votes so far.

Reaction to ThAd's vote:

@Emp: What? I was asking the question to get a general feel for the site. My playstyle had nothing to do with the question.

@Admiral and IAAUS: Show me where I was upset. You're blowing my posts way out of proportion.

The wagon on me is so freaking scummy and agreed with Mitsuru that Admiral's vote was flat out disgusting.

followed by flaking entirely from the game and the site.

Here we see t3hkuzinator throwing his toys out of the pram. There's no dismissive "it's my playstyle, get over it" attitude here. Instead we get emotive language like 'so freaking scummy' and 'flat out disgusting'. He's very clearly moved from being mildly irritated to being genuinely upset, and it is my firm belief that the most, maybe even the only likely explanation for this sudden mood swing is that the one person he thought he could rely on had turned on him too.

More to come...

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER TWO

I believe two things are true:

1. scum is far more likely to call people scum, and far less likely to call people town

2. generally when someone has a town tell on someone else they shouldn't be attacked for it for the reasons we have already talked about

ThAd doing a little self-reflection here. Clearly, if he believes this is a universal truth, then it must be true of his own scumplay, no? Wanna guess how often ThAd calls people town, and how often he calls people scum? The answer may surprise you.

I mean, given that the key point of my - and therefore also ThAd's - case against kuz was that he was upset that I correctly identified C-Worl as town, you'd assume that somewhere in ThAd's posts, you would find some declaration that C-Worl is town. But you'd be wrong. He talks around the subject for a long stretch by discussing town reads in the abstract, but never actually gives an opinion on C-Worl. That is, until C-Worl made his dumbass vote on ThAd to "get the game moving", at which point ThAd immediately starts calling him scum.

Together, me and Fishy talk him out of that vote and back around to the Archaist (kuz) wagon, but despite agreeing with Fishy's point that C-Worl's behaviour was dumb but not scummy, he continues to suspect C-Worl. This is heavy cognitive dissonance; his case on t3hkuzinator remains centred on the concept that t3hkuzinator displayed upset at C-Worl being identified as town, and yet he also suspects C-Worl? Does not compute.

In fact, ThAd never calls anyone town throughout D1. One of his final posts on D1 says that he would "be willing to move [his] vote to sab, mk or c-worl" at deadline, implying scumreads on the three of them. He opens D2 with a vote on Emp, implying a scumread there too.

Number of people ThAd has called scum up to this point: FIVE
Number of people ThAd has called town: NIL

Again, straight from the horse's mouth:

scum is far more likely to call people scum, and far less likely to call people town

Even when he finally gives his first explicit townread (on me) in this post, he does it at the same time as adding Rhinox to the ever-expanding list of scumreads, and he seemingly reverses his townread on me shortly afterwards when I vote for him. So that's pretty much everyone in the game that he has called scummy at one time or another, while never really commiting to a single town read.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER THREE

Q: Would scum ThAd bus his partner on D1?
A: Yes, he would.

[ThAdmiral]

@ card one: I was the -1 vote. I think that could explain any difference in his reaction to it. Furthermore it could also be attributed to a growing frustration due to the votes consistently piling on.

@ card two: slight misrepresentation here, but I can see why you would think that. I said I would be willing to move my vote to sab, mk, c-worl NOT necessarily because I had scum reads on them all (actually I did on mk, but not so much the other two) but largely because I was getting at least decent town-vibes from everyone else. Furthermore I made it clear that I would move my vote to these people only if necessary to ensure a lynch.
You are right about me being sidetracked by c-worl, though. I admit I overreacted to what was a dumb move, but not necessarily a scummy move.

@ card three: If you want to bring up my scum meta as a point against me that is fine, but in reality if you checked it out properly it would tell an entirely different story. While it is true that I have bussed a partner as scum before on day 1 this would be an extremely rare occurrence and I am far, FAR, more likely to not bus. I believe in general bussing is suboptimal play and I more or less only resort to it as a last option.

[ThAdmiral]

@ card two: you also didn't mention that from day 2 onwards my main suspect has been almost exclusively deduced via PoE from my list of townreads.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER FOUR

Like with C-Worl on D1, when I voted for ThAd on D2, he responded in a decidedly OMGUSy fashion. First he comes out with this:

@ iama: how did you know the scum killed c-worl before fishy's claim?

lazy and stupid attempt to imply that I knew that scum killed C-Worl, because I am scum. Note also that he doesn't ask this question when I first suggest that scum killed C-Worl, only after I voted for him. If he thought I was displaying knowledge I shouldn't have as town, why did it take me voting for him for this to bother him?

He follows it up with another attack on something that in no way bothered him at the time of posting, only after I voted him, namely me taking credit for the D1 scum lynch (credit which I deserve, btw), because taking credit for scum lynches is scummy
(

Next time guys, just listen to me.

)

and also adds this:

Secondly:
He goes from this...

I don't think I need to explain why ThAd is town.

...to this...

Unvote

VOTE: ThAdmiral

...in 24 hours.

and also this:

Admittedly that's true, but I doubt I'd have liked it much more if your sudden change of heart was directed at anyone else either.

Which, as has been well established, is plainly ridiculous, because I'd just called everybody but Fishy town for one reason or another, and Fishy had just proven himself town with his claim, thus requiring me to have a sudden change of heart on

someone

. After this is pointed out to him, ThAd further embellishes, suggesting that it was the percieved strength of my town read on him being suddenly dropped that bothered him.

The thing that bothers me the most about this whole sequence of events is the follow-through. Or rather, the lack thereof. When no one else bites on his arguments, he realises that I'm not a target he's going to get anywhere pursuing, so he just leaves the accusation hanging, without pressing me further to explain myself. If he genuinely found my turn on him to be scummy, why doesn't he seem to care that I never explained myself on it? No part of this comes off as genuine scumhunting.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER FIVE

I managed to get kuz/Archaist lynched yesterday almost single handedly by browbeating enough townies to go along with me, and I listed Rhinox as the most likely partner. By contrast, one of the last things C-Worl said was "Rhinox is town".

I am obvtown after yesterday, so killing me would not implicate Rhinox in any way. I have demonstrated a stubborn refusal to let go of my top suspect, and the ability to get them lynched. Rhinox would have every reason to believe that a) I would come into this day after his blood, and b) I have the power to exert my will upon this town. No way he kills anyone but me.

Still true.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER SIX

Towards the end of the day, Archaist was the leading wagon, with his vote sitting alone on C-Worl. He could have switched his vote to Mitsuro to bring that wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead specifically spoke out against this wagon, presumably to create a false connection between the two of them, and to appear consistent, since he'd listed Mitsuro as a town read earlier.
He could also have switched his vote to ThAd to bring THAT wagon up to three votes, equalling his own, but instead he... doesn't acknowledge this possibility at all. Even though he'd earlier listed ThAd as a scum read.

Still true.

[iamausername]

CARD NUMBER SEVEN

1) iam's catch, while significant, was not so overwhelmingly that voting Arch was the only option.
2) If Rhinox had voted ThAd, he would have taken no more heat for it later than anyone else not on the Arch wagon.
3) If Rhinox had not voted, Arch would very likely not have died. If Rhinox had voted ThAd, Arch would very very likely not have died.
I think 3) is beyond doubt - there were only hours to go, and there were two wagons at L-2. Voting either one of them makes it hugely more likely to succeed. The others are obviously matters of judgement, but AFAIC there's just no reason to think that Rhinox was forced to take the only route that didn't mark him as Arch's buddy.

I don't think Rhinox must be innocent. But I think his end of day actions make little sense for scum. When I look at day 1, I see that if Rhinox is scum he killed his partner in a situation where he didn't have to, and was never going to look that good for doing so. iam or ThAd being scum would have had to bus their partner hard; Rhinox being scum would have had to avoid being on the actual wagon, but change his mind at the death then make sure his partner got lynched anyway. All the scum death for little of the distancing power. It's possible that Rhinox decided the evidence against his partner was so overwhelming that a mislynch or a no lynch would inevitably lead to their deaths over the next two days. But I doubt it.

I agree with all of this. In particular, I would like to elaborate further upon point one. The catch in question is found in Post #249; Archaist argued from the apparent belief that I had never explained my town read on C-Worl, yet also said

iamausername: Had a town read on C-Worl for

one line

(#39).

Is this damning enough evidence that scum Rhinox would feel compelled to bus his partner immediately, because he was dead in the water at this point anyway? I don't think so. Archaist knew that I had a town read on C-Worl for one line, but this doesn't mean he knew the reason

why

this one line gave me a town read. There's no actual inconsistency here, and anyone who had an inclination to defend Archaist could easily have spotted this.

So, no, I do not believe that Rhinox was simply bringing about the inevitable. If Rhinox is scum, he made a conscious choice at the very last minute to force a lynch on his partner which almost certainly would not have happened without his involvement. I don't see this as a likely scenario.

[iamausername]

Putting the brakes on my assault for a moment...

Ok, in my mind, the most helpful strategy would be for everyone to list out why they would for if any of 3 people died at night and who they would for right now.

How do you think this will help?

[iamausername]

@ card three: If you want to bring up my scum meta as a point against me that is fine, but in reality if you checked it out properly it would tell an entirely different story.

Certainly possible. I didn't thoroughly check your history as scum. The very first scum game I found showed that there are circumstances in which you would be willing to bus a partner on D1, which is all I was looking for.

While it is true that I have bussed a partner as scum before on day 1 this would be an extremely rare occurrence and I am far, FAR, more likely to not bus. I believe in general bussing is suboptimal play and I more or less only resort to it as a last option.

Whether or not it is an irregular occurance, I think the game I linked pretty emphatically proves that you do not only do it as a last resort.

[jilynne1991]

For the people still living tomorrow, based on who died, they should be able to figure out whose scum.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
You're ignoring how Rhinox and now jilynne is spending their energy avoiding their lynch instead of finding mafia.
Read jilynne's [432-433] and tell me how you believe a word from her.


In the meantime, your cards.
Card 1:
This contradicts your theory that ThAd was deliberately bussing kuz. [see "card 3"]
On the other hand, whose attitude is the only one which also changes in response to kuz's attitude changing?
Rhinox's.

I happen to think that the most likely explanation for this mood change isn't that he got a ThAd vote, but that he got a lynch-1 vote. He's being pressured to claim. He can't be sarcastically dismissive any more, because he's under real pressure. Whatever he was trying to accomplish (perhaps being the stereotypical newbie bandwagon that gets early votes but dissolves when it "forms too quickly", but that may be giving him too much credit), it didn't work, and with his plan having failed he had no further interest in playing.

Also, there isn't some clear dichotomy of pattern of reactions between ThAd and not-ThAd. You're overlooking his reaction to me, for instance.


Card 2:
*I* had the same reaction to C-Worl that ThAd had.
On the other hand, while we were all reexamining each other, Rhinox laid low. D2, instead of trying to figure out who was guilty, his interest was in avoiding the lynch.


Card 3:
Quickly looking through the linked game- I don't think that's necessarily conclusive of anything: the mafia got a bonus daykill if they bussed each other. Moreover, ThAd coordinated the bussing pregame with his partners, which contradicts what you are assuming happened for your "card 1".
(And unless your point is that ThAd as town wouldn't lynch mafia D1... so what?)


Card 4:
Again, I had the same reaction as ThAd when you did that. I may have gone about it more subtly, certainly. But my [276] was probing why you assigned the kills, and I definitely reread you before him. Your play D2 was troubling, and it took reviewing D1 to put me at ease.


Card 5:
Still no. I mentioned several alternatives D2, but there's most prominently the fact that C-Worl was the only one who Archaist attacked.


Card 6:
Still no. It's a point in ThAd's favor that Archaist treated ThAd and MK the same.
Or since you seem to like speculative theories- Archaist's comafia Rhinox just switched his vote to MK. Archaist was distancing himself from his partner by automatically taking the opposite side. That's why Archaist was commenting on only MK.


Card 7:
Still no. Rhinox could not have done so. Here's the sequence of events.

[226] Rhinox, who had been voting ThAd, unvotes ThAd and votes MK. Archaist 3, MK 3, ThAd 2, C-Worl 1.
[229] C-Worl attacks MK
[231] Fishy attacks MK
[233] ThAd attacks MK
[235] EmpTyger unvotes and defends MK. Archaist 3, MK 2, ThAd 2, C-Worl 1.
[236] Rhinox attacks MK and EmpTyger
[237] C-Worl attacks MK
[240] C-Worl calls Rhinox town.
[243] EmpTyger attacks C-Worl and Rhinox, voting C-Worl. Archaist 3, MK 2, ThAd 2, C-Worl 2.
[244] Archaist defends MK, attacks C-Worl.
[245] Rhinox attacks me and MK.

Through this point, MK has been the counterwagon to save Archaist. Rhinox can't switch a vote to ThAd without easing pressure on MK.

[246] Fishy defends Archaist, unvotes MK, votes ThAd. Archaist 3, ThAd 3, C-Worl 2, MK 1.
[249] iama attacks Archaist
[250] ThAd attacks MK.
[252] C-Worl calls [249] the "catch of the game"
[253] Rhinox to act...

This is what Fishy, short-sightedly only seeing at the 3-3 votecount, called the definite opportunity for Rhinox to try for a ThAd lynch. Like a lot of things, Fishy was wrong.

Let's say, hypothetically, that Rhinox did so.
He would have to ignore what was *just* called a "catch of the game".
He would have to vote ThAd, who had just defended Rhinox's position about MK.
But setting those factors aside, even if he does place a 4th vote- who was there to put a 5th vote on ThAd at that point?

Not ThAd, obviously.
Not sAb, MK, or Fishy- they're already voting ThAd.
Not C-Worl or iama- not after they said that about the catch.
Not me- not unless you think that Rhinox would believe that I would ignore iama's catch to follow Rhinox when I was currently arguing a C-Worl/Rhinox theory, had been after Rhinox most of the day, and had vowed to not let up on him D2.
So that left only Archaist.

So best case, Rhinox/Archaist speedlynch ThAd immediately following the "catch of the game" against Archaist, leaving them both hopelessly exposed the following day.
Worst case, they don't even get the speedlynch, with the very real possibility that one of sAb, Fishy, or MK decide to switch to Archaist, leaving Rhinox exposed for going against the catch.

[jilynne1991]

Well, first I need to make sure I'm not lynched, otherwise tow will lose.

In case you haven't noticed, I AM LOOKING FOR MAFIA.