Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Seacore]

1. It's possible, as was suggested, that he screwed up his reading of Auction Detective, I know I've screwed up reading a couple of abilities, and thus he confessed rather than be busted.
2. I'm arguing that this is a lie.
3. You and I have both proven that he had $191 at the time he claimed to have bid it all on the NK. I have proven that he could only have bid $189. Thus he lied
4. WIFOM

[Seacore]

In short, he has definitely lied. He must be lynched for this.

I'm V/LA starting now until Australian Monday. I'll try and check in through my phone, but who knows...

Please try and organise the other abilities, but don't delay the hammer, we get more money this way.

[Ethos]

1. It's possible, as was suggested, that he screwed up his reading of Auction Detective, I know I've screwed up reading a couple of abilities, and thus he confessed rather than be busted.
2. I'm arguing that this is a lie.
3. You and I have both proven that he had $191 at the time he claimed to have bid it all on the NK. I have proven that he could only have bid $189. Thus he lied
4. WIFOM

1. It's not an ability that is hard to understand therefore I don't see how you could attempt to attack on this basis.
2. So are you stating that he bidded $116 randomly as mafia which also happens to be the number of which investing $50 works with?
3. Yes, something isn't adding up and he needs to explain it asap.
4. I can agree that it this is slightly wifom however the advantages of the cop and nightkill are so strong that mafia can't exactly afford to wifom and aim for smaller and weaker items especially if it's two scumteams.

We are NOT quicklynching this, there's a lot of information Slaxx and myself need to get out in the thread and it's going to take a day or two to get together, we're also waiting on a double voeter and vote nullifer claim.

[hiphop]

Look at it this way ethos. He invested $50, since his partner had the high bid on nk. He then gets more money for the next nk, to outbid any town players. He then uses his remaining funds to bid on a small item, since he doesn't have enough for a larger one. One that would tell him what abilities that he could win the next day, and he would be able to discuss them with his partner. Plus how do we really know that he had invested money at all? For all we know he could have made it up, to provide a cover for his extra funds?

I also encourage you to look at the WLC, and tell me that his vote could not have been a buss.

[HellloooNewman]

@ Mod - Is the current high bid on NK correct? I bid $190, am not the high bidder, but the auction lists high bidder @ $190?

I can't explain that. I am betting on a mod mistake.

Re: 189 vs. 190 - when I said 189 I was going off the top of my head, using the math that made sense. When you guys freaked out, I went through my pm's to get exact amounts.

If I am indeed lynched, the two pushing my lynch this hard need investigating pronto.

[IceGuy]

Starting cash = $100.
Win of bid on oracle = $20 + $1 transaction fee. Remaining funds = $79.
Penalty for not having highest bid = $2. Remaining funds = $77.
Investment = $50. Remaining funds = $27.
Day two started and wage recievement = $90. Remaining funds = $117.
Bid on nightkill = $116 + $1 penatly fee. Remaning funds = $116
Recievement of investment = $75. Remaining funds = $191
Bid on nightkill = $190 + $1 fee.

It all adds up.

It adds up much better this way:
Starting cash: $125. (Scum likely gets more money than town.)
Won bid on Oracle for $20, fee: $1, remaining funds: $104. (He reasons that Oracle will go relatively cheap and allows him to earn town brownie points. Is also useful to scum.)
Other bids: $3, remaining funds: $101. (Maybe Cop or some other abilities where he got overbid.)
Bid on NK for $100, fee: $1, remaining funds: $100. (Thinks that he can safely overbid town because all they've got is $100, which they can use to bid $99. But the kill goes to the other scum faction or a third-party role who had the same idea but earlier.)
Wage: $90, remaining funds: $190.
Bid on NK for $189, fee: $1, remaining funds: $188. (If the current bid is $190, the second highest bid is AT MOST $189.)

He's claiming NK because of Auction Detective (or rather because how he - and I - remembered it) and/or to have a plausible explanation why he isn't bidding on anything else.

Yeah, busted.

VOTE: Newman

[RedCoyote]

1) Mafia shot at the person that doctor saved therefore the doctor was held by a town player and the saved is town and clear, this is possible. 2) Town shot at the person that doctor saved therefore the doctor could be held by either allignment, this is likely not the case. 3) WLC bought night-kill and no kill was made due to it dying with him, this is the one that I believe is the most likely.

Two seems like this could be elaborated on publicly. If a townie got the NK, they should be upfront with us and tell us what they did with it.

Ethos, I'd actually consider the first option a little more than usual because if WLC was holding the scum's NK, I doubt they would've gave him up so easily. I mean, I don't know if they could've saved him, but it seems like that lynch went through without much struggle. This is all WIFOM, but it's like, I don't know, even though I gave this speech about how we need to rush this kill, I honestly didn't expect anyone to follow through with it. I'm glad y'all did, but I just didn't expect it.

Additionally, I propose a fourth possiblity (although it isn't much different from the second possibility you already mentioned). The scum just didn't bother bidding on the NK. They may have focused on either investing or bidding on other things.

The fact that investigation immunity was sniped means that mafia feared the cop attaining useful reports

How do you know this was sniped by scum? Am I just missing something?

Love potion really is pointless, no one better bid ofr it.

Eh, I'd rather town have it and just

not use it

than I would give it up to scum.

---

I want to claim that I won absolutely zero bids D1. Info at your disposal. My thoughts are not very accurate right now, but I will be back tomorrow.

There's no reason for you to say this as town. No one asked for this information. There's no reason for you to volunteer this.

---

So, that could mean there's a 3rd party. Or it could mean that members of one of the other two factions have a different worded win con. So if you're town and not an Entrepreneur, check your win con. Don't answer anything in thread, but eventually, I might want to know.

Tomorrow I might as about how many people are in the same faction as the Mafia Zaibatsu Member.

Now I'm thinking it might be more likely there are multiple scum teams due to the name of WLC's role. This was a good question to ask though, I think. I think it's safe to assume that there is either another scumteam or a third-party role.

---

Am I the only one who sees that nk went for $100? Which means that town does not have it, but mafia.

Oh and because I did not win any auctions yesterday, and had invested money at the start of the day yesterday, I fully intend to win an ability today. I was thinking nk, thoughts?

Good catch. Yeah, I don't have an issue with this.

---

I have 1 more use of Oracle. Should I use it, or hang on to it?

Might as well use it. I mean, unless you have grow your business.

---

Seacore, here is the question you need:

"Are there three or more factions consisting of at least two people?"

I second this question.

---

Okay, so now that that's out of the way, I think Newman may be scum

Newman bid and won oracle yesterday. That is $20 +1 for bidding.
Newman made two claims today one of which was $189 +2 for bidding

So that is $222.
I'm going to go with the fact that Entrepreneurs start with 100 and then got another 90 last night. Where is your $32 coming from Newman?

Very good catch. This crossed my mind, but I didn't crunch the numbers.

---

Acutally, I just read something I need to share immediately. I won the Cop ability last night and investigated Seacore last night and got the fact he was town. I wanted to make sure that the setup was in good hands, and it seems that it is. Another possiblity, Seacore: maybe more than two scum factions exist?

I already have good feelings about Seacore, so this makes me feel better about you both.

[Ethos]

Bid on NK for $189, fee: $1, remaining funds: $188. (If the current bid is $190, the second highest bid is AT MOST $189.) He's claiming NK because of Auction Detective (or rather because how he - and I - remembered it) and/or to have a plausible explanation why he isn't bidding on anything else.
Yeah, busted. VOTE: Newman

Yeah, no. It is confirmed that he made two separate bids on NK, one being for $116 and the other being for $189 or $190 depending on if it was a mod error or not, you've just attempted to construct an entire made up transaction record to place your vote on him without even mentioning that it takes him to L-2 furthermore you've avoided discussing the lynch yesterday which you were not part of, the items up for auction today, the abilities won yesterday and much more.

There needs to be more votes on Icey.

[Ethos]

RC, hiphop stated publically that he had the highest bid on Investigation Immunity and it was mentioned multiple times that no one should bid on it without showing suspicions of Hiphop, the item was then sniped. I think it's a reasonable assumption to make that mafia took it.

[RedCoyote]

Also, I'm fine with an HN lynch. This whole ordeal just seems too much. I don't think he was being upfront with us about his bidding.

Ethos is right that we should hold off, but we should lynch him before we lose our bonus.

I also don't understand why Ethos is having to defend HN rather than HN defending himself. Ethos, are you implying that Ice/Seacore/hiphop are all actively trying to get HN lynched under false pretenses? Or are they all just mistaken?

[RedCoyote]

PS: Or is it some combination of the two?

[Ethos]

Also, I'm fine with an HN lynch. This whole ordeal just seems too much. I don't think he was being upfront with us about his bidding. Ethos is right that we should hold off, but we should lynch him before we lose our bonus. I also don't understand why Ethos is having to defend HN rather than HN defending himself. Ethos, are you implying that Ice/Seacore/hiphop are all actively trying to get HN lynched under false pretenses? Or are they all just mistaken?

I'm defending HN because we both have a strong town read on him but at the same time I can understand why Seacore and Hiphop suspect him, if it's a mod error than hopefully they realize the need to look elsewhere however if it isn't a mod error I will need to take a second step back and rethink it. So yes, I do believe that Seacore and Hiphop are merely mistaken however I believe Ices attempt to push the lynch was highly opportunistic.

[IceGuy]

Yeah, no. It is confirmed that he made two separate bids on NK,

No, it's not confirmed. He claimed it, and there is no way to prove his claim.

you've just attempted to construct an entire made up transaction record to place your vote on him without even mentioning that it takes him to L-2

It's not just "made up", it shows a plausible transaction record which fits the information we have from independent sources much better than Newman's own.

furthermore you've avoided discussing the lynch yesterday which you were not part of, the items up for auction today, the abilities won yesterday and much more.

My first post on this Day was a survey of the items up for auction.

There needs to be more votes on Icey.

I don't see any justification for your vote except that you're defending Newman at all costs and I'm one of his attackers.

[Ethos]

No, it's not confirmed. He claimed it, and there is no way to prove his claim.

Wrong, it is confirmed in Post #207 by Hiphop. This post alone proves that your entire transaction record is completely implausible and therefore an attempt to create a scenario which never existed.

I don't see any justification for your vote except that you're defending Newman at all costs and I'm one of his attackers.

Your vote and incredibly opportunistic push on HN was just the final straw and solidified my suspicions of you. My vote was placed on you before you attempted to 'attack' HN so I'm unsure how you're attempting to link the two actions furthermore if I was attempting to just attack the people attacking HN I wouldn't have stated I had a town-read on Seacore and Hiphop the leading attacks of him in my previous post.

[IceGuy]

No, it's not confirmed. He claimed it, and there is no way to prove his claim.

Wrong, it is confirmed in Post #207 by Hiphop. This post alone proves that your entire transaction record is completely implausible and therefore an attempt to create a scenario which never existed.

That just confirms that

somebody

bid this amount. Newman claimed it after hiphop's post.

[IceGuy]

EBWOP:

Your vote and incredibly opportunistic push on HN was just the final straw and solidified my suspicions of you. My vote was placed on you before you attempted to 'attack' HN so I'm unsure how you're attempting to link the two actions furthermore if I was attempting to just attack the people attacking HN I wouldn't have stated I had a town-read on Seacore and Hiphop the leading attacks of him in my previous post.

Well, both of them are pretty much conftown.

[Ethos]

That just confirms that

somebody

bid this amount. Newman claimed it after hiphop's post.

I have no fucking clue what you're attempting to get at by stating this. We know that Hiphop stated he was going to bid on NK and therefore no one else should meaning if the person bidding against Hiphop wasn't Newman and was town they would have claimed by now and stated they did so. If the person bidding against Hiphop was mafia then Newman would be town because mafia wouldn't have a bidding war with themselves. So what did we learn from this? Either Newman was the person who bid $116 as mafia or as town so your constructed transaction is impossible and instead of standing back and accepting and agreeing to that like you would if you were town you're trying to defend it.

[Ethos]

EBWOP:Well, both of them are pretty much conftown.

Again you're attempting to link my vote on you to you being one of HNs attacks while ignoring the fact that I clearly had my vote on you before you attacked HN. On a completely unrelated note no one every buy a Dell, computer just broke so now I'm using a family members that doesn't have any of my documents...

[IceGuy]

That just confirms that

somebody

bid this amount. Newman claimed it after hiphop's post.

I have no fucking clue what you're attempting to get at by stating this. We know that Hiphop stated he was going to bid on NK and therefore no one else should meaning if the person bidding against Hiphop wasn't Newman and was town they would have claimed by now and stated they did so. If the person bidding against Hiphop was mafia then Newman would be town because mafia wouldn't have a bidding war with themselves.

We know for sure there are more than two win conditions, which very likely means we either have two mafia factions or a mafia/SK setup. In such a setup, I don't see why one scum faction shouldn't overbid another.

[Ethos]

We know for sure there are more than two win conditions, which very likely means we either have two mafia factions or a mafia/SK setup. In such a setup, I don't see why one scum faction shouldn't overbid another.

Let me just make sure I understand what you're getting at here. You're stating that Mafia faction #1 bet $116 on the kill, was outbid by Hiphop for $117. Mafia faction #2 overbid to $189/$190 and was outbid by Hiphop for $190/$191 and then someone from mafia faction #2 claimed to have mafia faction #1's bid and all of this is more likely than Newman bidding $116 himself as town or mafia.

Did I get that right?

[IceGuy]

Let me just make sure I understand what you're getting at here. You're stating that Mafia faction #1 bet $116 on the kill, was outbid by Hiphop for $117. Mafia faction #2 overbid to $189/$190 and was outbid by Hiphop for $190/$191 and then someone from mafia faction #2 claimed to have mafia faction #1's bid and all of this is more likely than Newman bidding $116 himself as town or mafia.

I'm saying: Somebody (likely scum) bet $116 and hiphop outbid him, bidding more than $189. Afterwards, Newman tried to outbid them both by bidding $189, but fails, because hiphop already bet more.

[IceGuy]

EBWOP: bet -> bid

[HellloooNewman]

Allow me to sum up Iceguy's arguements.

Vote - Iceguy

You are trying WAAAY to hard to push my lynch, past the point of all reason. Your interaction with Ethos proves that.

[IceGuy]

Vote - Iceguy

Obvious OMGUS is obvious.

[HellloooNewman]

So, I OMGUS'd the 3rd or 4th one on my wagon?

Does anything out of your mouth make sense?