Open 315 - Quack Mafia (Game Over)

[popsofctown]

This_broken_computer_lacks_spaces.

Don't_have_tons_of_time_for_this,_but_be_sure_to_compare_N0_with_n1.__And_remember_quacks_dont_hurt_scumz.


Izak_is_almost_conf_scum.__he_should_have_been_the_nightkill.
thinkaboutit

[Sathoris]

Mafia had a choice between quack and the doc. Empking was confirmed quack with the mafia's knowledge.

Doesn't make scum conf scum for not taking the NK, but adds a certain amount of suspicion yes.

[jilynne1991]

Ok, whatever, whenever I flip town, please go lynch Apolytika. (Sorry if I spelled your name wrong.)

[popsofctown]

apocalyptika is confirmed town

[izakthegoomba]

Quick post here due to limited access.

Glow, WTF? I have no clue why you think that's scummy.

jilynne, you are confirmed scum. STFU. Nobody believes a word you say.

And pops, why should I have been the NK?

[glowball]

Quick post here due to limited access.

Glow, WTF? I have no clue why you think that's scummy.

jilynne, you are confirmed scum. STFU. Nobody believes a word you say.

And pops, why should I have been the NK?

Check the bolded: It seems like you hinted at the plan possibly not going as planned. Nothing shows that things didn't go as planned, so what makes you think that?

FoS:Izak

I didn't say it was scummy- why are you freaking? I just asked what makes you think that someone didn't follow the plan?

[popsofctown]

Code: Select all

IceGuy        → jilynne1991
jilynne1991   → Uncle Pain
glowball      → jilynne1991
DonJosh       → PopsofCtown
izakthegoomba → Sathoris
Sathoris      → izakthegoomba
Uncle Pain    → Empking
PopsofCtown   → Empking
Empking       → PopsofCtown
forest_air    → ???

onlyifDonJosh-scum or
DonJosh is Doc:

forest->jill
jill-> goomba
empking->Sathoris
Sathoris->popsofctown
goomba->uncle pain
popsofctown->forest
uncle pain-> goomba
glowball->forest
iceguy->Sathoris

[popsofctown]

If Iceguy is a quack, that means Sathoris is scum.
If popsofctown is a quack, glowball is a town doctor, and so is Uncle Pain.
If Sathoris is a quack, popsofctown is scum. (for the sake of completeness. From my point of view, Sathoris is a doctor or scum)
If goomba is a quack, Sathoris is probscum, and uncle pain is scum.
If glowball is a quack, we know nothing.
If Uncle Pain is a quack, goomba is scum, and popsofctown is confirmed town doc.
Apokalyptik Forest is a quack.
jillyn is a scum.
That's some fyi on all the players

[popsofctown]

Izak I must have been spacing when I said you should have been the kill. Empking was pretty much best kill.

It looks like Iceguy should single protect someone for a win-win. If he turns out to be a quack, Sathoris is confirmed scum. Otherwise, Iceguy just protects effectively. If we choose to do this, though, Iceguy needs to be protected from harm because he will have yielded all the info he can, really.

If I'm a quack we can discover two conftownies. That may or may not be worth me testing my sanity out. (if I did test it out, I would need to do so on neither glowball nor Uncle Pain.)

Sathoris-quack proves me to be scum. From my PoV that's not worth consuming night actions to investigate. From everyone else's PoV, that's at least not as interesting to explore as Iceguy's potential, since Sathoris quack is rendered unlikely by his night 1 behavior.

Goomba is in a similar situation to iceguy, but shares Sathoris's unlikelihood of being a quack. Iceguy actually has a nice chance of being a quack.

If glowball is a quack, ebwop, popsofctown is conftown. That's not particularly valuable info, though, so I see her as a prime NK target because a quackflipped glowball isn't very dangerous.

Uncle Pain is like Iceguy, but actually even better. Little to no mitigating reasons he can't be a quack, direct scum implication if he's discovered quack, and a confirmed innocent gets tossed in too. Uncle Pain single protecting forest seems worthwhile to me.
Ice guy can single protect a townishh person.

You guys can start thinking about plans.

This setup actually seems broken in favor of town, which is thumping down my motivation to do traditional daygame scumhunting. But that rot is important too and stuff, so if people have cases don't feel like no one wants to hear them because of nightgame discussion! Present. Ideally the daygame and nightgame go hand and hand. That was a success last night, when the scummy jilynne was confirmed scum.

[Uncle Pain]

Good to see two confirmed players today. This leaves six players to be determined, one of which is non-quack (izakthegoomba because I didn’t die tonight) and one of which is town (me). Among these six players, there must be three doctors, one quack and two scum. I took the time to write down all possible role combinations with regard to these constraints:

Uncle Pain	Sathoris	izakthegoomba	popsofctown	glowball	IceGuy
doctor	doctor	scum	doctor	quack	scum
doctor	doctor	scum	quack	doctor	scum
doctor	quack	scum	scum	doctor	doctor
doctor	scum	doctor	doctor	quack	scum
doctor	scum	doctor	doctor	scum	quack
doctor	scum	doctor	quack	doctor	scum
doctor	scum	doctor	scum	doctor	quack
doctor	scum	scum	doctor	doctor	quack
doctor	scum	scum	doctor	quack	doctor
doctor	scum	scum	quack	doctor	doctor
quack	doctor	scum	doctor	doctor	scum
quack	doctor	scum	doctor	scum	doctor
quack	doctor	scum	scum	doctor	doctor
quack	scum	scum	doctor	doctor	doctor

Since all of these possibilities are equally weighted, you can read the scum likelihood by counting the number of scum possibilities for each player. So from my point of view, Sathoris and izakthegoomba are the most likely scum, IceGuy coming in third. It’s hard to determine who the quack may be, IceGuy and me are the most likely candidates, popsofctown being third.
Please note that these are

probability

values, nothing is for certain. Feel free to calculate your own values from your perspectives. For your convenience, here are all the other cases that I excluded (me scum, izakthegoomba quack); just kick out the possibilities that contradict your POV:

Spoiler: possibilities with Uncle Pain scum

Uncle Pain	Sathoris	izakthegoomba	popsofctown	glowball	IceGuy
scum	doctor	doctor	doctor	quack	scum
scum	doctor	doctor	doctor	scum	quack
scum	doctor	doctor	quack	doctor	scum
scum	doctor	doctor	quack	scum	doctor
scum	doctor	doctor	scum	doctor	quack
scum	doctor	doctor	scum	quack	doctor
scum	doctor	quack	doctor	doctor	scum
scum	doctor	quack	doctor	scum	doctor
scum	doctor	quack	scum	doctor	doctor
scum	doctor	scum	doctor	doctor	quack
scum	doctor	scum	doctor	quack	doctor
scum	doctor	scum	quack	doctor	doctor
scum	quack	doctor	doctor	doctor	scum
scum	quack	doctor	doctor	scum	doctor
scum	quack	doctor	scum	doctor	doctor
scum	quack	scum	doctor	doctor	doctor
scum	scum	doctor	doctor	doctor	quack
scum	scum	doctor	doctor	quack	doctor
scum	scum	doctor	quack	doctor	doctor
scum	scum	quack	doctor	doctor	doctor

Spoiler: possibilities with izakthegoomba quack

Uncle Pain	Sathoris	izakthegoomba	popsofctown	glowball	IceGuy
doctor	doctor	quack	doctor	scum	scum
doctor	doctor	quack	scum	doctor	scum
doctor	doctor	quack	scum	scum	doctor
doctor	scum	quack	doctor	doctor	scum
doctor	scum	quack	doctor	scum	doctor
doctor	scum	quack	scum	doctor	doctor

Regarding our Night 2 plan, what do you think of this?

Code: Select all

IceGuy        → glowball
glowball      → popsofctown
izakthegoomba → Uncle Pain
Sathoris      → IceGuy
Uncle Pain    → Apokalyptika
popsofctown   → Sathoris
Apokalyptika  → izakthegoomba

Everyone is targeted, using two protection circles. Apokalyptika “tests” the scumminess of izakthegoomba; should he be town, then this also funnels the scum nightkill onto him. I protect Apokalyptika as suggested by popsofctown, closing the circle. IceGuy, the other interesting guy, protects glowball. From my POV, the results of Night 2 would then be:

• If IceGuy dies, then Sathoris is quack. In conclusion, izakthegoomba and popsofctown must be scum.
  
• If glowball dies, then IceGuy is a quack. In conclusion, Sathoris is scum and Uncle Pain is a doctor.
  
• If izakthegoomba dies, this implies Sathoris-scum, Uncle Pain must be a doctor and IceGuy a non-doctor.
  
• If Sathoris dies, then popsofctown is a quack. In conclusion, izakthegoomba and IceGuy are scum.
  
• If Uncle Pain dies, then izakthegoomba is scum.
  
• If popsofctown dies, this implies that Uncle Pain is doctor.
  
• If Apokalyptika dies, then izakthegoomba must be scum.

• If IceGuy does NOT die, then EITHER Sathoris is a doctor and IceGuy is town → izakthegoomba is scum, Uncle Pain is a quack; OR IceGuy is scum → popsofctown and glowball are town.
  
• If glowball does NOT die, then EITHER IceGuy is a doctor and glowball is town → izakthegoomba is scum; OR glowball is scum → popsofctown is a doctor.
  
• If izakthegoomba does NOT die, then izakthegoomba is scum.
  
• If Sathoris does NOT die, then EITHER popsofctown is a doctor and Sathoris is town → izakthegoomba is scum, IceGuy is a non-quack; OR Sathoris is scum.
  
• If Uncle Pain does NOT die, then Sathoris is scum, IceGuy is a non-doctor.
  
• If popsofctown does NOT die, then EITHER glowball is a doctor and popsofctown is town; OR popsofctown is scum → glowball is a doctor, IceGuy is town.
  
• If Apokalyptika does NOT die, then Uncle Pain is a doctor.

I find that this plan delivers us a lot more information than IceGuy’s suggestion. I especially don’t like about it that it reveals nothing about IceGuy, izakthegoomba and partly also Sathoris (from my POV, again).
As always, please correct me if you find any mistakes.

BTW:

jilynne, you are confirmed scum. STFU. Nobody believes a word you say.

Just because she’s confirmed scum, it doesn’t mean it’s okay to be rude to her.

VOTE: jilynne1991
Please DON'T put jilynne at L-1, we still need a strategy for tomorrow and since she's going to die anyway she'll likely try a self-hammer.

Then why do

you

put her on L-1?! I count four votes on her (Apokalyptika, glowball, izakthegoomba, IceGuy) and it’s five to lynch.

I highly suggest someone on you unvotes jilynne1991.

(whew, been writing this post for five hours in total now)

[IceGuy]

VOTE: jilynne1991
Please DON'T put jilynne at L-1, we still need a strategy for tomorrow and since she's going to die anyway she'll likely try a self-hammer.

Then why do

you

put her on L-1?! I count four votes on her (Apokalyptika, glowball, izakthegoomba, IceGuy) and it’s five to lynch.

I highly suggest someone on you unvotes jilynne1991.

I'm not sure if this is correct, but just to be sure UNVOTE: jilynne1991.

[popsofctown]

Iceguy, glowball, goomba, sathoris, uncle pain, apokalyptic, popsofctown.

Iceguy shot.

glowball, goomba, sathoris, uncle pain, apokalyptic, popsofctown

popsofctown lynched, town

glowball, goomba, sathoris, unclepain, apokalyptic (night).

glowball shot

goomba, uncle pain, apokalyptic, sathorisscum

game over, scum win.


Looks like it's not safe to make that assumption there, UP.

[popsofctown]

Uncle Pain protect apokaylptic is spot on though. We can hammer out something nice.

How bout everyone unvotes since votes are not needed for diplomacy at all whatsoever when we have a confirmed scum? Then we can landslide vote when we confirm a plan.

[popsofctown]

ebwop, 336 should quote where you say, "if iceguy dies, sathoris is quack, etc". Sathoris could still be scum, and we don't have enough warm bodies to determine which is the case.

[popsofctown]

If glowball+iceguy scum: there is no third quack. Therefore this is not the pairing. (double check me.)
If iceguy +goomba scum: I see no conclusions about quack.
If iceguy + Sathoris scum: I see no conclusions.
If iceguy + Uncle scum: glowball or goomba(decreased chance) is the quack.
If iceguy + pops scum: Sathoris must be quack. (but Sathoris is unlikely quack)


glowball + goomba scum: uncle pain quack.
glowball + sath scum: Uncle pain or ice quack
glowball + Uncle scum: goomba quack
glowball + pops scum: Sathoris quack (N0 offchance)

goomba + sath scum: no info
goomba + uncle scum: glowball quack
goomba + pops scum: Sathoris quack

Sathoris + uncle pain scum: goomba or glowball quack
Sathoris + pops scum: Iceguy quack

uncle + pops scum: Sathoris or goomba quack, goomba less likely

[popsofctown]

I seem to be the least likely quack. I looked into it, if I am a quack 2/3 of {iceguy, Sathoris, Uncle pain} are scum. This is pretty useful because there's little reason I can't be a quack.

[popsofctown]

guys it might break the game harder if we no lynch >_>

<_<

[popsofctown]

lol wait i forgot we had a confirmed scum to execute.

nevermind.

Diving into the actions and excluding jill all the time frazzled my brain

[Sathoris]

Sath: Doc
Iceguy: Doc
Pops: Doc
Uncle: Quack
Apok: Quack

Jyl: Scum
Izak: Scum
Glow: Scum

100%

[popsofctown]

I seem to be the least likely quack. I looked into it, if I am a quack 2/3 of {iceguy, Sathoris, Uncle pain} are scum. This is pretty useful because there's little reason I can't be a quack.

Wait... Uncle pain protected with me night zero, so it'd just be iceguy-sath scum. lemme double check

[popsofctown]

I just mistyped earlier, goomba was supposed to take uncle pain's place in the {} list.

[glowball]

I have been looking this over and I have to take back my first statement about IceGuy. If Sathoris is town, there is NO WAY IceGuy is scum. If IceGuy was scum or quack then Sathoris(as town) would have died last night. IceGuy is most likely a doctor unless Sathoris is scum. Although they could both be scum.

So,given that every possible scenario has to have IceGuy as Doc if you have Sathoris as town. If you have sathoris as scum then IceGuy can be Quack or Doc. IceGuy CANNOT be scum without Sathoris also being scum...think about it and tell me if that makes sense to you...

[glowball]

I have been looking this over and I have to take back my first statement about IceGuy. If Sathoris is town, there is NO WAY IceGuy is scum. If IceGuy was scum or quack then Sathoris(as town) would have died last night. IceGuy is most likely a doctor unless Sathoris is scum. Although they could both be scum.

So,given that every possible scenario has to have IceGuy as Doc if you have Sathoris as town. If you have sathoris as scum then IceGuy can be Quack or Doc. IceGuy CANNOT be scum without Sathoris also being scum...think about it and tell me if that makes sense to you...

btw the point of this was to propose we test Sathoris' alignment and we would come out of that with either confirmed town(IceGuy) or confirmed scum for lynching the next day (Sathoris)

[Apokalyptika]

Ok, I'm really sorry for not posting for a bit. A bit of RL got in the way.

That being said, I've learned that I'm not really good at figuring out plans/patterns of lynches/protects/what have you. So I'm going to just scumhunt regularly, and factor in the results afterwards. Right at this moment, izak, iceguy and glowball stand out to me in a negative way. Updated thoughts in a moment.

Also,

Unvote; jilynne

.

[IceGuy]

That being said, I've learned that I'm not really good at figuring out plans/patterns of lynches/protects/what have you. So I'm going to just scumhunt regularly, and factor in the results afterwards. Right at this moment, izak, iceguy and glowball stand out to me in a negative way. Updated thoughts in a moment.

Please at least read our posts regarding protect patterns. Sathoris was targeted by a quack and by me, which means that if he is town, I'm also town.

I find that this plan delivers us a lot more information than IceGuy’s suggestion. I especially don’t like about it that it reveals nothing about IceGuy, izakthegoomba and partly also Sathoris (from my POV, again).
As always, please correct me if you find any mistakes.

What? My plan reveals my and Sathoris' role. It also narrows down goomba's alignment, and gives us some information about the rest.

The problem with your plan is that it gives us little information. Don't forget that a kill only confirms somebody as "not doctor", and a no kill doesn't confirm anything (except for confirmed quacks, and we only have Apo).