Neon Genesis Evangelion Mafia (Game Over)

[Iecerint]

I doubt Kast==Ritsuko is the scum inventor. If Kast is scum, Ritsuko is a fakeclaim. I do not know of any Angels for whom inventor is a plausible role, and Keel was probably the SEELE representative.

[vollkan]

Having four players entangled with one another was confusing the hell out of me, so I spent some time going through every scenario.

Lynch of Kast

Result: Scum

Implications:

CJ: Depends on whether Kast flips as a scummifier (in which case, obviously P(CJ-scum) skyrockets) or, as GI as just suggested, something else like a scum inventor, in which case it is null.
SX: More likely town no matter what Kast's role (because if CJ was recruited, he is more likely to be lying, and if Kast is a scum dud inventor, then it is possible SX is being framed or something)
Stevie: I don't really know what to make of Stevie in any scenario that follows, other than that there is somewhat of a inverse correlation between Stevie's and SX's alignments (ie. Stevie-town makes SX-scum more likely, and vice-versa)

Result: Town

Implications:

CJ: Obviously less likely to be scum than before, though the flavour means that there are still good grounds for concerns about possible recruitment
SX: More likely scum, but qualified to the extent that the flavour creates cause for doubt over CJ and, thus, the claimed investigation result
Stevie: See above

Lynch of CJ

Result: Scum

Implications:

Kast: CJ was a mason; Kast targeted CJ; CJ became scum. It follows that Kast is more likely scum than otherwise.
SX: MUCH more likely to be town, the only exception being a gambit by CJ to claim guilty on a partner
Stevie: See above

Result: Town

Implications:

Kast: Conversely to the above, Kast becomes more likely town here.
SX: MUCH more likely to be scum
Stevie: See above

Lynch of SX

Result: Scum

Implications:

CJ: MUCH more likely to be town (absent gambitting)
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely town, Kast is more likely town (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above

Result: Town

Implications:

CJ: MUCH more likely to be scum
Kast: Insofar as CJ is more likely scum, Kast is more likely scum (obviously, the correlation is being filtered down a level)
Stevie: See above

Lynch of Stevie

Result: Scum

Implications:

See above

Lynch of Stevie

Result: Town

Implications:

See above

---

So what have we learned?

It's basically a direct chain of probability in either direction, with the reliability of the implications diminishing the further you move away from any given player.

Red = SCUM-SCUM
Green = SCUM-TOWN

Kast

<---------------------------->

CJ

<---------->

Spyrex

<------------------------------------------------------------------->

Stevie

Stevie's separation from Spyrex is longer than every other one to represent the fact that any information about or derived from Stevie is much less reliable than information about anybody else. Similarly, because I think recruitment/non-recruitment of CJ is more likely than an inventor role, I think the link of CJ-SX is stronger (and thus shorter) than the link of CJ-Kast.

This means that Stevie is the most useless lynch. However, with his score, and thinking he is also the one I am most confident of individually being scum.

SX and CJ are roughly equivalent in terms of usefulness, though CJ's mason status makes me inherently favour SX's lynch over his.

I don't see lynching Kast as particularly helpful, since I don't buy the case on him and a Kast scumflip wouldn't confirm CJ as scum.

SOOO, it's either SX or Stevie. Since I think Stevie is more likely scum at this point, it follows that his lynch should come first and any talk of lynchng SX should be postponed unless and until furter information comes to light

Unvote, Vote: Stevie

[ZeL1nK]

I could get behind a stevie lynch. He claimed a scum ability.

The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless.

[vollkan]

I could get behind a stevie lynch. He claimed a scum ability.

The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless.

True. The double-lynch factor makes the information-value of a Stevie lynch lower, at least in the immediate term. I'm not sure that outweighs the fact that he is the most likely scum; though, nothing is really clear-cut in this sort of situation.

[Kdub]

Day 2 - Vote Count #5

Amrun (0)

-

Kawaii (0)

-

GreyICE (0)

-

Antifinity (0)

-

Candle Jack (0)

-

populartajo (0)

-

Iecerint (0)

-

Nocmen (0)

-

Surye (0)

-

Celebloki (0)

-

Starbuck (0)

-

ace5993 (0)

-

drewoftherushes (0)

-

ZeL1nK (0)

-

StevieT92 (2)

- Lady Lambdadelta, vollkan

GhostWriter (0)

-

SpyreX (9)

- StevieT92, Candle Jack, Pomegranate, SpyreX, GreyICE, Nocmen, populartajo, drewoftherushes, LobsterCatapult

Kast (0)

-

vollkan (0)

-

Pomegranate (0)

-

LobsterCatapult (0)

-

Lady Lambdadelta (0)

-

No Lynch (0)

-

Not Voting (11)

- Amrun, Kawaii, Antifinity, Iecerint, Surye, Celebloki, Starbuck, ace5993, ZeL1nK, GhostWriter, Kast

22 votes available, 12 votes needed to lynch

Deadline is July 30, ~ 11 pm PDT

[Lady Lambdadelta]

@Mod: Prod/Replace Kawaii please?

[Candle Jack]

but perhaps not fabricated by stevie, but the scum team used their ability on him.

What ability are you talking about here like it is a fact?

only thing that i think is weird is the one shot unlynchable....hmm...last time i played a game with a governor it ended up pretty wonky. idk ill have to think about all this.

Can you explain what is 'weird' and what happened that made the game 'wonky'? Keep in mind, this isn't a governor role, rather a one shot self reviver with no alignment flip until the second death (!)

~~~

Iecerint

, why aren't you voting SpyreX/(anyone)?

~~~

The problem with lynching anyone else is, for one, that we have gotten a result saying SpyreX is an angel, and besides (lolframing!) which actually may be possible, SpyreX has defended himself by saying, 'kill me now as town, before I become scum!!!' which is a horrible defense because he is saying not to kill him because he isn't scum,... YET.

'defense'

I could be infected and that could be what spawned all this.

However, AS OF RIGHT NOW, I am town

[Candle Jack]

I could get behind a stevie lynch

. He claimed a scum ability.

The only issue I have with that is that this Spyrex/Kast/CJ issue needs to be resolved one way or the other at some point, and delaying that with double stevie lynches seems pointless

Not Voting (11)

- Amrun, Kawaii, Antifinity, Iecerint, Surye, Celebloki, Starbuck, ace5993,

ZeL1nK,

GhostWriter, Kast

????

(Also, I don't understand your stevie position, if you think he is scum, you're going to have to do just that to kill him, so no sense weeping over it)

[Kdub]

@Mod: Prod/Replace Kawaii please?

Kise informed me during N1 that he wished to remain in the game. If he or his other head doesn't contribute soon, I will force-replace them.

[drewoftherushes]

Stevie is the most useless lynch.

Volkan - This is great analysis of the situation, and a horrible conclusion. Lynching Stevie will likely not give us either an alignment or a dead player. I know he has the highest score on your board, but surely you can see that we need to figure out what's going on with the Kast/CJ/Spyrex thing before we can do anything about Stevie.

And I agree that Stevie is scummy looking, and needs to answer the questions being asked of him, but I really think we need to lynch CJ or Spyrex (I think Spyrex) today

[Iecerint]

I'm waiting for SX to answer my question.

[Celebloki]

Sorry again all. I have been keeping up on my phone but don't have the time to make a real post yet. They are painting and replacing carpet to and I should be able to set my stuff up today or tomorrow. Regardless I will be back at work tomorrow and can perform proper analysis.

[GhostWriter]

I was rereading, and wondering what the fuck was wrong with so many of you, up until LLD's page 42 posts.

Why. The fuck. Does Stevie have. Investigative mod pm's?

"We have a mafia message-sender."
Possibly.

Or Stevie's scum. Which is so much more likely. Time to hang.

VOTE: Stevie

[Kast]

Catching up. Should get a post up later today/tonight.

[Kast]

Spoiler: Catchup thoughts

LLD's attack on Antifinity is silly. I'm sure everyone (including LLD) at least considered the possibility of recruiting (particularly the one of the Magi being recruited).

We know for certain that a Magi was targeted last night.

My ability is a day use. If anyone targeted CJ last night, it was not me.

However, as I said yesterday, this ability is some sort of convoluted "doc-cop-mason combo" which is imbalanced for scum and I still havent researched what kdubmod thinks about this. Also, Kasttown means that pretty much he should be dead by now unless someone messed with the kill, which i guess, is possible in night 1.

Im leaning to not believe the claim but day is still early and I have some research to do regarding kdub.

I'm also assuming that scum attempted to kill me but were blocked or I got protected.

Additionally, given that I survived the night (I expected to be dead), I need to reveal that I left out one detail from my ability. I cannot use it on the same person twice. If scum did not send a kill at CJ last night, then he still has his 1-Shot Bulletproof. I can't help him anymore AND I can't give him a second Day Cop. I can give both to another Supercomputer. I'll leave it up to CJ and his mason buddies to determine if they want to reveal another member or not. If they don't want to reveal, then I'll just make a best guess (I'll wait til later in the day to submit).

@Tajo RE: Malthusis-
Malthusis was an SK. Why are you talking about his buddies?

@LLD-
Trying too hard...Point 1 is reasonable, but the rest sounds like fluff to appear to be contributing.

@Spyrex/Scum-
Given Stevie's claim combined with CJ's investigation, I'm good with this lynch.

Re: possibility of CJ AND Stevie both lying-
I don't see why CJ-recruited-scum would bother tying himself to a false result on Spyrex. There was no indication that Spyrex is particularly dangerous to scum. I'm trusting CJ's investigation.

@Noc-
-I'm not sure how helpful it is to tell scum whether my protection has any impact on being recruited or not. However, I will say, if CJ was recruited, I doubt he would have come out with a positive investigation result on anyone. I believe CJ is town.

...

Not much to comment on the rest of stuff.

So:
-I'd like to hear (I guess from CJ) whether any other supercomputers want to reveal themselves or whether I should just submit a best guess.
AND
VOTE: Spyrex

[populartajo]

Did Candle Jack get a post from mod saying it was targetted by Kast?

[LobsterCatapult]

but perhaps not fabricated by stevie, but the scum team used their ability on him.

What ability are you talking about here like it is a fact?

only thing that i think is weird is the one shot unlynchable....hmm...last time i played a game with a governor it ended up pretty wonky. idk ill have to think about all this.

Can you explain what is 'weird' and what happened that made the game 'wonky'? Keep in mind, this isn't a governor role, rather a one shot self reviver with no alignment flip until the second death (!)

LLD said that scum may have a framer ability that made spyrex show up as guilty. however, since your ability is daytime ability, and ive never played a game where a framer ability carried over into the next day, i was saying that if a framer exists, itd be more probable that stevie recieved false information than you since his was recieved at night. this is obviously conditional on LLD's scenario of a framer.

ive never played a game where someone had that sort of ability, and it wasn't a scum-governor deal that saves him from getting lynched. thats all i was saying was i was somewhat debating in my head if this mod used that kind of set up [because the governor in the last game i played threw off the balance severly and made it really wonky] and stevie was in fact scum, lying about his role, and has a scumbuddy 1 shot governor or something that would save him if he got lynched. however, i understand that they are different (stevie's claimed role, and a governor) and so i think my point is invalid.

[Kast]

@Tajo-
My ability should have given him a PM telling him he has been upgraded and that he has the 1-Shot Day Cop. It should not have said

who

gave it to him. I get no notification whether the ability is a success or not.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

I'm overheated, sick and tired. I don't have time for your shut Kast.

You either help me lynch Stevie, or I'll let Grey have his way with you.

[populartajo]

i fail to see what benefit we get from stevie lynch since I think he is telling the truth regarding his resurrection powers (no flip after lynch) and I want to know TODAY if we are dealing with a cult or not.

[Pomegranate]

i fail to see what benefit we get from stevie lynch since I think he is telling the truth regarding his resurrection powers (no flip after lynch) and I want to know TODAY if we are dealing with a cult or not.

QFT

[populartajo]

i also dont get framer paranoia when we have

a) a supposed day investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

b) a supposed night investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

I dont know if Im missing anything or not but lynching anyone but Spyrex today seems pretty useless, let alone the stevie lynch that gives zero input on the situation.

BONUS: we get cult confirmation or not.

[GhostWriter]

Where did the night investigation come from?

[vollkan]

i also dont get framer paranoia when we have

a) a supposed day investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

b) a supposed night investigation that gives a guilty on Spyrex.

I dont know if Im missing anything or not but lynching anyone but Spyrex today seems pretty useless, let alone the stevie lynch that gives zero input on the situation.

BONUS: we get cult confirmation or not.

The cult confirmation is a really good point, and wasn't part of my inter-player analysis. Stevie is the most likely scum, but if that means not knowing about the cult for two days, then SX makes more sense.

Unvote, Vote: SpyreX

[populartajo]

ghost, im assuming stevie got that PM at night, though I think clarification is needed.