Mini 1198 - Marketplace Mafia - Game Over

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Due to the fact that there is a sample PM, claiming cash will not out scum. It may out special town roles though, so no.

This is town.

[Ethos]

LLD, Ghostlin is cop and near confirmed town to be honest. It is confirmed that mafia sniped at investigation immunity at the end of yesterday meaning that they feared cops investigation or wanted to remove a chance of having cleared players. This essentially means that they themselves didn't hold cop, therefore Ghostlin is town.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

LLD, Ghostlin is cop and near confirmed town to be honest. It is confirmed that mafia sniped at investigation immunity at the end of yesterday meaning that they feared cops investigation or wanted to remove a chance of having cleared players. This essentially means that they themselves didn't hold cop, therefore Ghostlin is town.

I don't see how this makes Ghostlin town.

First off, this assumes that scum was 100% on getting the cop investigation?

Secondly, this assumes that scum would not benefit from having the cop ability?

Thirdly, this assumes that scum wouldn't take the investigation immunity AND the cop ability to achieve just this reaction? The fact that the scum can co-ordinate their purchases makes this likely.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Okay I just got my answer. So as you'll recall, my questions was

"Are there more than two different win conditions among the role PMs sent to players?"

My answer was in the

affirmative

(just in case quoting = copying a one word answer)

So, there's the win condition in the Entrepreneur Role PM. Then there's the scum one. Then there's at least one more.
Unless there's a hole in my question, but I think I've covered it.
So, that could mean there's a 3rd party. Or it could mean that members of one of the other two factions have a different worded win con. So if you're town and not an Entrepreneur, check your win con. Don't answer anything in thread, but eventually, I might want to know.

Tomorrow I might as about how many people are in the same faction as the Mafia Zaibatsu Member.

Also, this.

This all but confirms that there are likely 2 scum teams.

Unless you want to say there is a third party serial killer (which I don't see as likely).

So why WOULDN'T scum want a cop?

[Ethos]

Hiphop claimed that he had the leading bid and intent on winning investigation immunity, to mafia this would mean that any innocent the town receives is a clear therefore them receiving investigation immunity instead of hiphop would be crucial. I never stated that mafia would not benefit from the cop ability however I fail to see any possible scenario where mafia lay down majority of their funds on cop and investigation immunity two items which alone do not do much for them.

I suggest you read through the entire thread in chronological order and then proceed to stating your reads because there's a lot of context needed when attaining reads in this setup.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

This is still ignoring the all but confirmed multi scum factor?

Don't tell me you don't see the same thing I see. I mean, Ghostlin was your top scum read on Page 4 or so.

Assuming 2 scum teams for a moment, do you still see Ghostlin as confirmed town?

[Ethos]

Trust me, I understand where you're coming from because I saw the exact same thing earlier in the game and no if there's two scum teams he wouldn't be considered confirmed town. Though right now I'm very much of the opinion that there's a SK rather than two scum teams because it's clear that one of the scums powers is to steal money from the auction bids which is an ability which wouldn't make sense for one of the teams to have and not the other however it makes perfect sense for a SK to have.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Seacore, here is the question you need:

"Are there three or more factions consisting of at least two people?"

That will tell us whether its 2/2/8 or not.

Fine, we can wait a day on Ghostlin, provided that Seacore asks this question of the mod tonight.

If the answer comes back as "Yes", promise me you lend me your vote and help me lynch Ghostlin!scum tomorrow.

If no, I will yield to you and agree that Ghostlin is near confirmed town.

In the spirit of the marketplace, are you willing to make this deal with me?

Regardless, I agree that Ghostlin isn't the play for today anyway.

Unvote;

Let me read some more.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

ChaosOmega, Hiphop: You will explain why your are voting town!Mal in your next post.

This still applies.

[PeregrineV]

Since I read of no town activity on auction 13, commuter, and I have no targeted abilities to use anyway, I have placed a bid for it. I'm OK with Ethos having Watcher, and I can't afford the NK to keep it from scum.

I'm assuming (probably wrong, but what can you do?) that scum won't bother with Doc, since they are buying NK, so am hoping Doc is being bought by town. Other auctions are either ended or discussed by players I think are town or I have no interest in.

[IceGuy]

Also- alarm bells did tingle my insides: but since I had no idea at the time, if it was another Townie that bid much smarter then me, like Bidding 99$ straight out instead of playing the poke-it-with-a-stick-and-see-if-moves game, or a scum who bid way more then that to get it right off, I couldn't know till later.

Midnight, could you post your exact bid amounts and responses (i.e. winning bid, outbid)?

I may be one of the most guilable people in the world but I believe Newmans explanation over the mix up and still consider him to be town but let this be a warning anyone that lies about their auctioning and bidding actions later in the game will be hung.

Chaos interrogation of Newman bringing up the fact that it was impossible to have the funds he was claiming to have reads as a solid town-tell.

I don't get what you're trying to say in the last sentence, but what makes Newman scum in my eyes are the inconsistencies. For instance, I can simply look through my PM box and simply copy&paste the nest egg, wage, bid amounts, investments, and balances, and it will all add up.

Newman made several SMALL mistakes (189 vs. 190, two invented bids) and claimed he deleted his PMs. Why should anybody delete PMs from an ongoing game, especially if they are important for bookkeeping? If he would be off by, say, $100, I would believe he's town who made a honest mistake (forgot to factor in a bid, or forgot his nest egg, or whatever). But being off by $1 or $2 isn't an honest mistake. Stuff like this happens when you're trying to construct a bid and investment history, and you forget to add a bid fee, or accidentally add in a fee for a bid you're not claiming.

Malpascp is town for this post, and people should be voting Ghostlin for this. There is MASSIVE scum intent behind it.

LLD, I don't see why Ghostlin is scummy; of course his cop claim does not absolutely confirm him as town, but nothing in his posts strikes me as scummy. Attacking the only outed power role with basically made-up reasons DOES strike me as scummy, though. And I this post doesn't make malpascp town. It's simply a nulltell for both.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

You don't see why scum would want to have someone who bid on THE KILL lynched? Their main competition for the kill + the potential of the kill being used against them?

Further, you don't see why scum, should they miss out on the kill, would want to have "the town vote on who to kill"? It's a manipulation tactic to avoid having the scum get shot by what essentially amounts to a vig.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Further, you quoted my post, but not the post that it was referencing....

Hmm, I;m going to have to read you in isolation.

[Ethos]

Icey, what I am attempting to say is that the way Choas went about the attack on Newman reads as VERY townie specifics include Post #301, Post #303 and Post #309. Mafia would just want to point out the error or issue giving them a massive chance to push on a player whereas town want to gather information and create an opportunity for a potential slip to occur.

LLD, I haven't heard from Slaxx since he left on vacation but I can say that you have my acceptance to that deal. Waiting on your thoughts on everyone in the room at the moment though.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Hey Reg, here's what I have so far.

RC is town, you are town, Mal is town, Seacore is town.

Ghostlin is scum, but our deal so not today.

I feel uneasy about Hiphop and ChaosOmega, but I doubt highly that they are BOTH scum.

I want to read IceGuy again, his posting is pretty bad. Not sure if scum or just bad.

I read Newman as null, but I'll read him more carefully in light of his wagon.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Two things:

- Forgot who brought I up,

but a SK is highly unlikely in this setup.

Considering he'd have to buy his kill and all.
- Random thought. Mass claim amount of starting cash?

This is interesting.

Newman, what led you to this train of thought?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Why do you feel an SK is a possibility? Seems almost too obvious to me that there isn't.

And again... I can see maybe once, but to continue pushing it?

If there's an SK in the setup, as opposed to just 2 scum teams, this is it.

So, in my mind: One of Newman and Ghostlin is scum. Guaranteed.

[Ethos]

I can agree and understand on RC and Seacore town but you need to convince me of Maltown because that one post of his is a minimal town-tell furthermore there is really no chance that Newman is SK. There's zilch motivation for a SK to spend funds on Oracle as spending funds on Oracle is only done to work out if advertising is needed or not and SK cannot afford to nor would ever want to advertise.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

As I stated, I was unaware of Hiphop bidding on NK as well. I thought that NK was likely to be bid on by scum, and I wanted to keep it away from them. I figured, as I had invested money, that I may have had enough to win it outright, if not I would at least drive the price up on the scum.

Had I won it, I would have claimed it in thread, and used it as a de-facto 2nd lynch (voting on who I used it on).

Ok, I understand the Newman wagon now. The only issue is... who is he scum with? If he's SK like I think, then this isn't a problem...

But if it is as I suspect... and there are two scum teams... who is he connected to?

His WLC vote was pretty damn bad... there;s a bussing potential there? Beyond that, he actually has NO CONNECTIONS to anyone else left in the game. Not that I can see.

P-Edit: Regfan, remember PYP? What point was there to scum taking Goon Cop? It's the same motivation. It's actually FURTHERED, since Oracle's not a provable claim... and if there IS an SK, they probably have extra abilities. (They would need them to survive this game).

[Magua]

Breaking news

The following auctions have completed:

#	Name	Minimum Bid	Winning Bid	Auction Length
12	Auction Detective x 2	$25	$81	5 days
13	Commuter x 2	$25	$51	5 days
14	Doctor x 2	$40	$40	5 days
15	Love Potion x 1	$25	$25	5 days
16	Medium x 3	$25	$25	5 days
19	Roleblocker x 3	$50	$84	5 days

All relevant PMs are sent. If you have any questions, PM me.

[Ethos]

I don't understand your disagreement with a vig-votting system, it allows the vig shot to be optimally placed as well as locks the person holding night kill into a particular kill which is incredibly good if the person holding is scum.

Sure the addition of a doctor or a roleblocker may make it difficult however if someone wishes to roleblock the person with nightkill watcher will catch the visit or we can auction detective catch the person and if the doctor saves the person shot we can catch them the same way.

Actually I believe I was correct about my setup thoughts in PYP (No scum in the (1,1s) and 2 scum in the (6,?s)) but surely you would agree that the SK would be inclined to bid on multiple other auction items in this setup.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Vig Voting and Vig direction allows the scum to manipulate the vig into killing town.

And it means that you can't read based on kills.

I agree 100% with the person who won Vig CLAIMING. But I would advocate them shooting their scum reads. Town directing vigs is never a good idea.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

And I'm not trying to get into a fight about the rest of PYP with you. I'm merely referencing that the scum in that game took a role that was never expect of them, exactly FOR that purpose.

[Ethos]

Fair enough.

In other news I was just outbid on watcher even though I directly stated that I was planning on aiming for it therefore if any town placed a bid on watcher they should claim so inthread now otherwise I know that I'm in a bidding war with scum.

[Lady Lambdadelta]

Regfan, I'm curious. Who are your top scum reads?