vezokpiraka wrote:unvote
vote AGM
Lynch one of the obvious CRs.
You're just happy for a lynch other than yourself.
Tell me again why we are talking about lynching someone other than a 100% chance of being anti town? Is scum really influencing the lynch that much?
Let's take a look at the must lynch scum reasoning.
There have been two nights of recruiting. Assuming no crazy stuff going on the cult would have max of 4. Assuming that they have an extra member and both recruits went through. Now let's look statistically. Chances are cult have less than this. 1. Cult probably didn't start with two. Just because that is logical. Also there are multiple unrecruitables. Not sure how many but scum certainly can't and from my role pm there are town that is unrecruitable as well.
So look at the amount of players. 13.
Taking out the town paranoia, which is generally a safe way to look at it, but not useful here. We are probably in a 6/4/3. Lets say we lynch vezok. 6/3/3 going in to the night. Scum will be trying to kill cult. Cultists are probably going to be easy to random kill and add in a bit of calculated guessing and we have a cult dying. 5/3/3
We can probably play a waiting game as town seeing as if scum lose a single player at this point they will have to stop attacking town and attack cult. It would only be a matter of time until the cult recruiter dies. We probably have 4 deaths to hit them after the lynch.
That is pretty good odds considering what information can be gathered / what we already have.
Instead of lynching in the dark, even if there is reasoning. Would it not be better to force the action of scum to help eradicate the cult?
Don't @ me.
