Newbie 1104 -- Game over

[Twistedspoon]

^I agree

/offtopic
@morthas: I figured out a real easy way to remove the white from avatars like you were asking me earlier. Still interested?

[noragar]

Tonight, I read through the iso on CC. There's just not a whole lot of substance there other than his confusion about the format.

So, just to be sure, I went back and reread the interactions between gbevil and Lord of Graves/Otolia and reconfirmed what I thought all along - that I don't see any way he could be Otolia's partner with the way he pushed toward that lynch when there were several other options that he could have subtly turned his attention to.

Twisted has the same Otolia alibi, in addition to the doc's revelation putting him even more in the clear.

So by process of elimination, I know that the scum has to be CC/Mothras. The problem - that info does me no good unless I can convince the two of you of that fact (or, more specifically, the one of you that survives the night).

There's not much to make a case about CC's iso that hasn't already been said. Numerous fluff posts (trying to float under the radar???), then confusion about the game format (questioned and dismissed as newbie/confused), then before disappearing, throwing a few votes around and withdrawing them. The interesting thing is that one of the places these votes never landed was LOG/Otolia (He voted for Twisted and Espe during the RVS, then gbevil and Frostbite later in the day).

The best defense I have for myself is also the voting against Otolia during Day 1. Here's the history of the votes against Otolia after RVS.

1. gbevil (L-4)
2. gbevil Unvotes (L-5)
3. Twisted (L-4)
4. Chkflip (L-3) (one of his copycat votes)
5. Chkflip unvotes (L-4)
6. Twisted (unless I missed an Unvote somewhere, his vote was already on Otolia (L-4)
7. Chkflip (L-3)
8. Gbevil (L-2)
9. Noragar (L-1)
10. gbevil unvotes (L-2) (he placed what he said was a probe vote on forest to see how she would react, then immediately revoted...)
11. gbevil (L-1)
12. forest (hammers)

For much the same reason as I'm clearing Twisted and gbevil for their voting against Otolia when they had other options, i think this voting pattern also clears me. My placing Otolia at (L-1) came right after a vigorous 3 page discussion taking place in one afternoon between Twisted, chkflip, and Otolia. I made the decision after reading all of that that Otolia was acting the most desperate and illogical in his defense of himself, so decided to vote in that direction. If I were scum, I could just as easily have picked out some points to attack on chkflip, who had been my #1 scum target up to that point to try to move the pressure back away from Otolia, but decided to move toward his lynch instead.

So your call will be, in this newbie game, is it more likely for the scum to actively take action to work toward his partners lynching on Day One, or to avoid voting for him, and really avoiding comment about him altogether?

That's all I have for now. I haven't gotten to Mothras' iso yet, though my impression as it was happening was that he seemed to be acting more townish than CC was. I'll try to get to that tomorrow night and see if I can pick anything out in hindsight.

[gbevilchaos]

@Morthas - have you ever been in a MyLo situation before?

[Morthas]

@Gbevil: No i don't believe i have.
@TS: Yes, pm me about it so we don't clutter the game threat.

@mod:

Sorry I will have to V/LA until next tuesday... yeah.

[noragar]

I guess there's no hurry to do my iso then. I'll wait until the weekend when I have more time.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 4.01

No votes cast

Not Voting: noragar, gbevilchaos, Twistedspoon, Morthas

V/LA: Morthas, until Tuesday, July 12

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch, and 2 to No-Lynch.

Deadline: July 25

[Twistedspoon]

oh, I'm V/La until sunday btw
sorry

[noragar]

Will post over the weekend.

[gbevilchaos]

Prod dodge post.

I'm still here, but there's honestly no reason to post with half of the game V/LA. We have several weeks to discuss whatever we want to and we already know what we're going to vote (no lynch, duh), so we might as well wait for at least one of the players to get back. Things can pick back up when TS gets back on Sunday.

[Nobody Special]

Hi, so.

No one's in prod range yet; Morthas is V/LA until Tuesday and has until then to post to avoid a prod; Twsitedspoon is V/LA through today; the votecount hasn't changed.

[noragar]

Reading now. Prod dodge in case I'm not done in the next hour..

[Twistedspoon]

k, back

the plan is To NL today and whichever of me and chaos are around tommorow, cast the hammer after noragar and morthas cross-vote

not sure if ready to end the day yet...

[gbevilchaos]

k, back

the plan is To NL today and whichever of me and chaos are around tommorow, cast the hammer after noragar and morthas cross-vote

not sure if ready to end the day yet...

No need to end the day yet. I think we should have at least another few days.

Still waiting on noragar's Morthas read and Morthas' noragar read.

[Morthas]

Weee what an amazing present~~ A page full of prod dodges, come to think of it... my birthday ain't too far off.
How about after the no lynch and we lynch noragar or evil and have this win as my birthday present ;D?

I'll start working on the case as soon as i get some sleep take the reason i've been so busy to the airport.

[gbevilchaos]

Weee what an amazing present~~ A page full of prod dodges, come to think of it...

As I explained, no point in posting with half our players when we have 2 weeks left to make the decision that we've already decided on - lol.

And this can be your birthday present - you don't have to do any catching up!

[noragar]

Sorry I didn't get around to posting last night. I had an Evony emergency come up that I had to deal with.

Reading through Morthas' iso, the thing that strikes me first is that there's an awful lot of really short posts with little to no substance. Doing a quick count, out of 54 total posts by Morthas, 41 of them (over 75%) have been one or two lines. And that's even counting post #988 above as one of the multiple line posts. Overall, it just strikes me as trying to build up post count, but saying as little as possible in the process.

He doesn't really give reasoning behind who he suspects as scum, but I did notice an odd pattern to it in regards to how he suspect me and others:

In his initial reads (#3/#510), I'm his second most likely scum candidate (behind Espe), the two of the three players who were getting the most scum heat from everyone at the time. The third, forest, who was getting the most heat from the town and was eventually lynched, Morthas said he had a town read on, but never made any points or arguments to question the lynch.

After forest flipped town, Morthas changed his stance on me (#10/#716) and started saying he suspected TS or Gbdevil (#16/#746), two of the most solid, generally accepted town reads. Next, after Muffin confirmed TS as town, he changed his list to "I say it's either EVIL or Haylen" (#23/#840), again with no explanation of either suspicion.

To me, this seems like a very plausible way for scum to play it. There's already a ton of suspicion on me, so go after the more solid town reads. If he's able to get those solid town reads lynched, then it would be easier to get me lynched in the late game because everyone already suspected me. How much chance would he have if instead of being in the final 4 with me, TS, and gbevil, he was in the final 4 with TS, gbevil and either Haylen or Muffin?

[gbevilchaos]

Few problems here...
Bolded below.

Sorry I didn't get around to posting last night. I had an Evony emergency come up that I had to deal with.

LOL

Reading through Morthas' iso, the thing that strikes me first is that there's an awful lot of really short posts with little to no substance. Doing a quick count, out of 54 total posts by Morthas, 41 of them (over 75%) have been one or two lines. And that's even counting post #988 above as one of the multiple line posts. Overall, it just strikes me as trying to build up post count, but saying as little as possible in the process.

See after quote, I have a bit of a problem with this.

He doesn't really give reasoning behind who he suspects as scum, but I did notice an odd pattern to it in regards to how he suspect me and others:

In his initial reads (#3/#510), I'm his second most likely scum candidate (behind Espe), the two of the three players who were getting the most scum heat from everyone at the time. The third, forest, who was getting the most heat from the town and was eventually lynched, Morthas said he had a town read on, but never made any points or arguments to question the lynch.

After forest flipped town, Morthas changed his stance on me (#10/#716) and started saying he suspected TS or Gbdevil (#16/#746), two of the most solid, generally accepted town reads. Next, after Muffin confirmed TS as town, he changed his list to "I say it's either EVIL or Haylen" (#23/#840), again with no explanation of either suspicion.

It's unlikely that scum would first target only the weak-looking players and then about face and attack the stronger players. Town is likely to attack everyone who they see as scummy, especially in a tough situation. Scum is likely to pick out the weakest links and wait for the stronger ones to mess up. They can attack the slips much easier than they can attack player giving off strong town-reads at every opportunity. This wouldn't make sense for how scum would play, in my opinion.

To me, this seems like a very plausible way for scum to play it. There's already a ton of suspicion on me, so go after the more solid town reads. If he's able to get those solid town reads lynched, then it would be easier to get me lynched in the late game because everyone already suspected me. How much chance would he have if instead of being in the final 4 with me, TS, and gbevil, he was in the final 4 with TS, gbevil and either Haylen or Muffin?

Yes, but how likely are you to be lynched if you attack the strongest town player with no reasoning? Wouldn't make sense for scum in my opinion.

Now for my other thing that I didn't what to quote above. Here is the last 6 posts of TS's ISO currently (ISO #270-275)

I'm leaning noragar scum

K, well the way I see it scum is likely Morthas or norgar

and If I lynch noragar Muffin will never forgive me. At least it's his fault if noragar scum wins the game because he was the one saying he was obvtown.

there have been some real obvtown things coming from CC though...

@Gbevil: Can I get your opinion on this post?

I had a dream about getting voted down by you TS. Ah well, I got nothing to hide. Remember my sacrifice! The cop should have an easier time guessing who the mafia is right? It made sense to me :/

^I agree

/offtopic
@morthas: I figured out a real easy way to remove the white from avatars like you were asking me earlier. Still interested?

oh, I'm V/La until sunday btw
sorry

k, back

the plan is To NL today and whichever of me and chaos are around tommorow, cast the hammer after noragar and morthas cross-vote

not sure if ready to end the day yet...

Now these are short posts as well. Is TS scummy because of it? You've never mentioned this as a scum read from TS before.

[gbevilchaos]

I grabbed a voting history for noragar with analysis. Interesting stuff. I also noticed one other oddity that I think pretty much confirms noragarscum, in my head anyway.

Still, I want to see Morthas' read tomorrow. Will post mine immediately afterwards.

[noragar]

It wasn't the point that he had short posts. It was the point that he had very few long posts with any substance. The only time Mothras did any kind of reasoning or analysis was in explaining how he came to the conclusion that forest had investigated chkflip - after it was already obvious to everyone.

I think you would agree that Twisted has made a few posts with substance and reasoning along the way and hasn't been afraid to take a stand or make a case.

[gbevilchaos]

What I was trying to get at was the fact that short posts could just be a part of his meta. Is it a helpful part? Certainly not, but we need to consider the possibility that he just tends to make short posts. At this point, lynching unhelpful town results in a loss.

Having said that, Morthas, please provide a link to your most recent newbie scum game and newbie town game.

Let's look into his meta before we make conclusions based on his general posting style.

[Morthas]

Skimmed, posting later today.
@Evil: I posted links to my games in a previous post.

[gbevilchaos]

Skimmed, posting later today.
@Evil: I posted links to my games in a previous post.

Ah, totally missed that. Sucks that you don't have a full scum game.

Can't post anything long now, will post after my college class.

[Nobody Special]

Votecount 4.02

(unchanged)

No votes cast

Not Voting: noragar, gbevilchaos, Twistedspoon, Morthas

V/LA: ...

With 4 alive, it takes 3 to lynch, and 2 to No-Lynch.

Deadline: July 25

[noragar]

Waiting for Morthas to say something.

[gbevilchaos]

Waiting for Morthas to say something.

Ditto.