Open 315 - Quack Mafia (Game Over)

[popsofctown]

Simple. When we were still slightly sumhunting I said Jilynne and Glowball+Iceguy are likely the mafia. Or Glowball/Iceguy with Izak. Since then Iceguy has been confirmed doc from my PoV so that leaves you with Glowball. Uncle is going to be confirmed Quack when he kills Apok tonight. Pops is still uncertain, but I've had a town read on him from the beginning. Though his new plan has me rethinking that. Either way Uncle's plan can shed light on that.

And why the sudden suprise? I've been saying this from D1.

I would vote for you if this setup wasn't so analysis-orientated.

You'd rather vote for me than confscum? slipslip

I've forgotten there's a confscum in the game earlier today, so I don't see this as a scumslip.

Iceguy isn't confirmed town from your PoV, but he could be your partner. slipslip?

[Sathoris]

Yes he is. Empking flipped Quack and he and Iceguy protected me. I know I'm a doctor so that makes Iceguy a doctor.

[Uncle Pain]

My scumteam? Hmm, sounds a bit early, doesn’t it? I mean, we have so far only found jilynne1991, do you expect us to have crystal balls? But well…

From an analytical standpoint, I suspect the three of you the most: Sathoris, izakthegoomba and of course jilynne1991.

From an actual in-game point (i.e. posts, interpretations etc.), my reads from #247 haven’t changed a lot, mainly due to our focus on Night action planning. jilynne1991 has obviously given up to convince us of anything else. I’d put Sathoris on null-scum now though: the fact that he wants us to stop making a plan just rubs me the wrong way, as if he had recognised that the numbers make him look scummy and he must find a way to get out of this.

I mean, why stop it? Today’s lynch is a no-brainer so it’s sensible right now to make a good Night 2 plan. In fact, if Night 2 should reveal another scum, we’re good to go for a Night 3 plan and so on. If we make and follow good plans that reveal scum by logic, we can get along with analytical Mafia gaming here without relying too much on uncertain reads and interpretations. Not that I don’t like the traditional approach but it seems obvious to make use of any advantage to get town closer to a win.

[Sathoris]

Let's stop with all these plans

for a second

. I want to hear scumteams from people.

I'm 100% sure it's Izak, Jilynne and Glowball.

Not saying we should stop fashioning a plan. I just want people to list their suspects for the scumteam. And as far as I'm concerned we follow Uncle's plan and we roll up all the scum tomorrow.

[Uncle Pain]

Yes he is. Empking flipped Quack and he and Iceguy protected me. I know I'm a doctor so that makes Iceguy a doctor.

Full ack, that’s your PoV. Question: why am I not your top scum suspect then? In the six cases that constitute your PoV, four of them have me as scum – 67% likelihood, more that for every other player.

[Sathoris]

Yeah.. That's what I said:

. Since then Iceguy has been confirmed doc from my PoV

Doesn't matter what I think of you right now. You protecting Apok will answer that for me.

this gives me all the info and I'm sticking to it.

[popsofctown]

I made purple comments in the spoilers

I’m sorry but you criticised my incorrect conclusions from #334, the updated ones are in #350. Also, you’re arguing from your own PoV which obviously collides with my PoV. So to make things comparable, I generalized the statements that one can derive from both plans (my one and yours from #355 with the change from #359):

Spoiler: neutral conclusions from Uncle Pain’s plan

• If IceGuy dies, then Sathoris is a non-doctor.
  
• If glowball dies, then IceGuy is a non-doctor. In conclusion, Sathoris must be scum and Uncle Pain a non-quack.
  
• If izakthegoomba dies, then Uncle Pain must be a non-quack.
  
• If Sathoris dies, then popsofctown is a non-doctor. In conclusion, IceGuy must be a doctor.
  +glowball is a nonquack+Uncle pain is a nonquack.
  
  
• If Uncle Pain dies, then izakthegoomba is a non-doctor. In conclusion, popsofctown must be a non-doctor.
  I don't follow this
  
  
• If popsofctown dies, then glowball is a non-doctor.
  furthermore if popsofctown dies and flips quack, glowball is scum.
  
  
• If Apokalyptika dies, then Uncle Pain is a non-doctor. In conclusion, IceGuy must be town.

Iceguy must be town if Uncle Pain is town,your PoV. (did you do both are lists from creator's point of view or spectator's?)

• If IceGuy survives, then EITHER Sathoris is a non-quack and IceGuy is town; OR IceGuy is scum → Sathoris is scum → WIN.
  
• If glowball survives, then EITHER IceGuy is a non-quack and glowball is town; OR glowball is scum → IceGuy is town.
  This is true.
  
  
• If izakthegoomba survives, then izakthegoomba is scum. In conclusion, IceGuy is town.
  How?
  
  
• If Sathoris survives, then EITHER popsofctown is a non-quack and Sathoris is town → IceGuy is a doctor; OR Sathoris is scum.
  
• If Uncle Pain survives, then EITHER izakthegoomba is a non-quack and Uncle Pain is town; OR Uncle Pain is scum → IceGuy is town.
  
• If popsofctown survives, then EITHER glowball is a non-quack and popsofctown is town; OR popsofctown is scum → IceGuy is town.
  
• If Apokalyptika survives, then Uncle Pain is a non-quack.

Spoiler: neutral conclusions from popsofctown’s plan

• If IceGuy dies, then popsofctown is a non-doctor.
  We also win the game. I've determined in an earlier post that when I am a quack, 2/3 of {Sathoris, izak, Iceguy} are scum. If Iceguy dies, I'll know Sath/izak is the scumteam.
  You'll know glowball is not a quack, because then I wouldn't be a quack, I'd be scum that shot Iceguy, so apok should be dead.. You'll know Ice isn't quack from his flip. You'll know Uncle pain isn't quack because pops didn't die. Sathoris won't have been shot, which will be suspicious. There will be six players in the game.
  
  The game is then breakable, even with for a spectator. We repeatedly nolynch and do goomba+Sath->glowball->UP->apok. I just chill, apok just chills. If apok dies, whichever of glowball or UP was assigned to protect him is scum with pops. gg. If glowball dies, goomba and Sath aren't really a doc/quack pair, so gg. If goomba and Sathscums shoot pops, he flips quack and gg.
  
  Apok generates a random number between 1 and 60, and at that point he protects Sathoris instead of taking no action. Unless the scum make a 1/60 guess correctly, apok will simply cause exactly 1 or 0 deaths. If his target dies, I'm scum. If his target doesn't die, he then can verify that I'm a quack and goomba and Sathoris are scum.
  
  There might be a cleaner way to break the game then that, if that ever happens I'd think more on it.
  
  
  
• If glowball dies, then IceGuy is a non-doctor → Sathoris is scum, Uncle Pain is a non-quack.
  
• If izakthegoomba dies, then glowball is a non-doctor.
  And I'm a nonquack
  
  
• If Sathoris dies, then nothing.
  If he flips quack I'm scum, and goomba is revealed as either definite doc or definite scum by apok's livelihood.
  
  
• If Uncle Pain dies, then nothing.
  I didn't realize you aren't covered. Glowball should protect you, funneling a kill to Sathoris or goomba, the prolific single protecters who scum don't want to flip quack
  
  
• If popsofctown dies, then Uncle Pain is a non-doctor → IceGuy is town.
  
• If Apokalyptika dies, then Sathoris and izakthegoomba are both non-doctors.

• If IceGuy survives, then EITHER popsofctown is a non-quack and IceGuy is town; OR IceGuy is scum → Sathoris is scum → WIN.
  
• If glowball survives, then EITHER IceGuy is a doctor and glowball is town; OR glowball is scum.
  
• If izakthegoomba survives, then EITHER glowball is a non-quack and izakthegoomba is town → Uncle Pain is a non-quack; OR izakthegoomba is scum → IceGuy is town.
  
• If Sathoris survives, then nothing.
  
• If Uncle Pain survives, then nothing.
  
• If popsofctown survives, then EITHER Uncle Pain is a non-quack and popsofctown is town; OR popsofctown is scum → IceGuy is town.
  
• If Apokalyptika survives, then EITHER Sathoris and izakthegoomba are both non-quacks; OR Sathoris/izakthegoomba is a doctor/quack team → IceGuy is a doctor.

Give me a moment or two to compare these two properly… at first glance, they both lead to a lot of redundancy, especially IceGuy’s role often revealed.
I still don’t feel confident in building such plans, I must admit. I don’t see through the mechanics yet… it’s still a lot trial-and-error.

dang, what a waste of time. I forgot you reworked them.
I tried to argue from spectator's PoV, none of my criticisms were intended to be based off of "I know pops is town so therefore:". However, my conclusion at the end about how much I like the plan is influenced by my point of view, I don't want time and energy wasted gathering information about me or Sathoris's sanity.

Ok, i stopped after developing that long insane contingency plan in there. Now my brain hurts, I'm gonna stop working things out.

I want uncle pain-> pops, iceguy->glowball, and pops->Iceguy. The other ones I really don't care about and don't see a strong case for. Could we accommodate those ones and do whatever you wish with the rest?
Uncle pain ->pops confirms UP's sanity to himself, which I like.
iceguy->glowball has explosive info as a side effect of the iceguy-glowball scum pairing being impossible.
As dramatic as it is, the long spiel I typed out works, so me protecting Iceguy will either rescue him, important when he might become conftown, or it wins the game instantly for the town.

[popsofctown]

Yes he is. Empking flipped Quack and he and Iceguy protected me. I know I'm a doctor so that makes Iceguy a doctor.

erg right

[IceGuy]

Currently, I like pops' plan best, but I propose a slightly modified version:

Uncle Pain -> goomba
IceGuy -> popsofctown
Apocalyptica -> glowball
popsofctown -> Apocalyptica
Sathoris -> Apocalyptica
goomba -> IceGuy
glowball -> popsofctown

It doesn't make sense to waste Apocalyptica on a double protect (he is a confirmed quack, so he can test glowball, who is currently the scummiest player and also never single protected). Also, he should be protected by two people which are likely doctors.

Neutral conclusions:
- If I die, goomba is quack or scum, and likely scum, since both Uncle Pain and Sathoris must be scum for goomba to be a quack. We lynch goomba and if he flips town, we have two confirmed scum. -> WIN.
- If glowball dies, she was town. If she flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor.
- If goomba dies, Uncle Pain is not a doctor, so popsofctown is a doctor, and Sathoris is scum, so I'm the quack. If goomba flips town, Uncle Pain is a non-quack.
- If Sathoris dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack, and I'm a doctor. If he flips quack, popsofctown and goomba are scum.
- If Uncle Pain dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack. If he flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor, and goomba is scum.
- If popsofctown dies, and glowball is the quack, I'm either quack or scum. If he's scum, I'm the quack. When popsofctown flips town, Sathoris is a doctor or scum; if I'm the quack, Sathoris is scum.
- If Apokalyptica dies, popsofctown and Sathoris are non-doctors, and Uncle Pain and glowball are doctors, which makes goomba a non-quack.

Survival conclusions are pretty straightforward (protector is either quack or scum or target is scum), with the exception of glowball (if she survives, she is scum).

[glowball]

Currently, I like pops' plan best, but I propose a slightly modified version:

Uncle Pain -> goomba
IceGuy -> popsofctown
Apocalyptica -> glowball
popsofctown -> Apocalyptica
Sathoris -> Apocalyptica
goomba -> IceGuy
glowball -> popsofctown

It doesn't make sense to waste Apocalyptica on a double protect (he is a confirmed quack, so he can test glowball, who is currently the scummiest player and also never single protected). Also, he should be protected by two people which are likely doctors.

Neutral conclusions:
- If I die, goomba is quack or scum, and likely scum, since both Uncle Pain and Sathoris must be scum for goomba to be a quack. We lynch goomba and if he flips town, we have two confirmed scum. -> WIN.
- If glowball dies, she was town. If she flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor.
- If goomba dies, Uncle Pain is not a doctor, so popsofctown is a doctor, and Sathoris is scum, so I'm the quack. If goomba flips town, Uncle Pain is a non-quack.

- If Sathoris dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack, and I'm a doctor. If he flips quack, popsofctown and goomba are scum.

- If Uncle Pain dies and flips doctor or quack, goomba is a non-quack. If he flips quack, popsofctown is a doctor, and goomba is scum.
- If popsofctown dies, and glowball is the quack, I'm either quack or scum. If he's scum, I'm the quack. When popsofctown flips town, Sathoris is a doctor or scum; if I'm the quack, Sathoris is scum.
- If Apokalyptica dies, popsofctown and Sathoris are non-doctors, and Uncle Pain and glowball are doctors, which makes goomba a non-quack.

Survival conclusions are pretty straightforward (protector is either quack or scum or target is scum), with the exception of glowball (if she survives, she is scum).

Nothing in your plan suggests that Sathoris will die, so can you explain? Besides that the plan sounds good although all of these plans are tilted to personal reads. While I've continuously seen certain players get free passes to not be in the loop and I just think town is cheating themselves in this aspect.

[IceGuy]

Nothing in your plan suggests that Sathoris will die, so can you explain?

Scum NK.

Besides that the plan sounds good although all of these plans are tilted to personal reads.

Of course they are. Scumhunting still plays a role, although a lesser one as usual.

[popsofctown]

I want uncle pain-> pops, iceguy->glowball, and pops->Iceguy. The other ones I really don't care about and don't see a strong case for. Could we accommodate those ones and do whatever you wish with the rest?
Uncle pain ->pops confirms UP's sanity to himself, which I like.
iceguy->glowball has explosive info as a side effect of the iceguy-glowball scum pairing being impossible.
As dramatic as it is, the long spiel I typed out works, so me protecting Iceguy will either rescue him, important when he might become conftown, or it wins the game instantly for the town.

[glowball]

Nothing in your plan suggests that Sathoris will die, so can you explain?

Scum NK.

Besides that the plan sounds good although all of these plans are tilted to personal reads.

Of course they are. Scumhunting still plays a role, although a lesser one as usual.

OKay I think pops is tied to his plan and I'd rather incorporate testing Sathoris alignment by Apok into the test. Although I see all sides, so whatever plan we come up with is cool...I guess there isn't much work to be done once we all agree on a plan.

[Sathoris]

Not doing that. Uncle's plan is best.

[glowball]

K...why don't we just vote for which plan is best. I liked Uncle Pain's plan initially but I am for whatever but all this is just getting boring...where does everyone else stand?

[popsofctown]

I only have 3 protects I care about and have a good case about them..

[glowball]

have you proposed a plan, did I miss it?

[popsofctown]

see 386

[glowball]

Oh I meant like a plan involving everyone...like the one UnclePain made

[popsofctown]

I did one of those too. But it's not popular as a whole and I've realized from a neutral perspective, I can't expect it to be, so I'm just pushing the points I feel strongly about. I actually don't even particularly care who apok investigates. Do that wisely though. İpod post, spellinf not guaranteed

[Apokalyptika]

I personally like IceGuy's plan, but I do see the merit of pops'.

[glowball]

In Pops and IceGuy's plan I just see people getting overlooked and nothing about that sits well with me, I mean Uncle Pain's plan has everyone involved without the double protects people will be outed- it provides a reasonable amount of information.

In reality, I'd prefer Pops' plan if Uncle's is out of the question.

[popsofctown]

Well its all about circles, my three requests can be used to form a loop

[Uncle Pain]

IceGuy’s plan from #383 sounds well thought-out but I still dislike the double protections. They sacrifice an increase of information for the protection of players. IMHO the information is definitely more important to town than the protection of non-confirmed players and still arguably more important than the (safer) protection of confirmed players. Hence, I prefer a circle protection plan, at least for the coming Night.

Regarding popsofctown’s protection “wish list”, what do you think about this?

Code: Select all

IceGuy        → glowball
glowball      → izakthegoomba
izakthegoomba → Apokalyptika
Sathoris      → Uncle Pain
Uncle Pain    → popsofctown
popsofctown   → IceGuy
Apokalyptika  → Sathoris

This is based on his (IMHO sensible) protections and completes them to a circle. I chose izakthegoomba to protect Apokalyptika because from my PoV he cannot be a quack. Furthermore I chose Apokalyptika to go for Sathoris because it’s highly likely that he’s scum – I would probably die then but this is okay because it gives information.

[Sathoris]

Err. Wrong.

I'll die from a quack.
Pops will die from a quack
Apok will be NK'ed by scum.

2v2 tomorrow and scum wins.

Worst plan so far.