ASOIAF: Test of Faith Mafia (Game Over!)

[ooba]

Vote Count

Empking (2)

- Benmage, Cogito Ergo Sum

Benmage (1)

- Empking

Nexus (1)

- Thor665

Not Voting (7)

- Bogre, Lost Butterfly, Magua, Nexus, SpyreX, Hinduragi, Espeonage

With 11 alive, it took 6 to lynch!

[Magua]

That's logical. Shame you had to ruin it with a random mafia accusation

You asking "Is this true?" in regards to a mafia theory question is incredibly out of character for you.

Why?

Because you're a smart person, mafia-theory-wise, and are more than capable of knowing what the answer to that question is.

[Magua]

If we assume benmage is a recruit as seems likely, the fact that you've tunneled on him for a while now but pushed someone else for the vig seems awfully convenient. The mechanics of the vig meant that even a recruit shot would be something that the cult would try to avoid, I would think.

When do you think Benmage-recruit was recruited?

[Hinduragi]

Here's my guess for recruits in no way set in stone:
Benmage N2, AGM N3, (LB/CES/Dark Horse Canidate) N4.

I think it's less likely to be LB. CR never went for DGB, meaning he didn't go for the most obvtown people in the game. That's why I don't think he would've gone for LB last night. This also tells us the CR's playing a VERY NEUTRAL game. You're likely to see something like this in his play if you find him.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I'm not sure about that, Hind. You probably don't want to draw too much attention to the cult at first or risk recruiting players who end up getting nightkilled, but I don't see those concerns as particularly valid at this point. If I were CR, I'd probably just recruit LB here and try to lead the town - the only downside to LB as recruit that I see is how obvious it is.

If we assume benmage is a recruit as seems likely, the fact that you've tunneled on him for a while now but pushed someone else for the vig seems awfully convenient. The mechanics of the vig meant that even a recruit shot would be something that the cult would try to avoid, I would think.

When do you think Benmage-recruit was recruited?

Not sure. N2, N3 or non-CR cult from the beginning all work. I do see the problem you're alluding to - both AGM and benmage make most sense on N2, but I kinda think that's just due to how terrible the cowlynch was.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

P.S. why would Empking as mafia push Maguavig over benmagevig? Mafia should absolutely be culthunting, so unlikely benmage suspicion would be fake or bussing in that case.

[Magua]

P.S. why would Empking as mafia push Maguavig over benmagevig? Mafia should absolutely be culthunting, so unlikely benmage suspicion would be fake or bussing in that case.

This is a good argument.

It ties into exactly why I want to know if anyone claims Embodiment of the Crone.

I'm absolutely assuming that no one who has posted since then claims it, so:

Does Not Claim Crone

9. Empking
10. Magua
12. Cogito Ergo Sum
15. SpyreX
16. Hinduragi
19. Espeonage

Not Yet Spoken

2. Bogre
3. Thor665
7. Lost Butterfly
11. Nexus
17. Benmage

[Hinduragi]

If everyone was onto AGM, a recruit, and EVERYONE is looking for you, I'm pretty sure the CR will continue playing his neutral game or make it even more passive. The entire reasoning behind it is how obvious it is and that's why he never recruited DGB. AGM was definitely recruited N2, as per my ISO. Benmage N3, if only in the hopes to get a Cop recruit.

I'm game for a massclaim. It can't really hurt at this point.

Pretty sure Empking isn't mafia for the way he didn't counterclaim Benmage...Wait, Empking didn't claim Crone. What?

[Magua]

Pretty sure Empking isn't mafia for the way he didn't counterclaim Benmage...Wait, Empking didn't claim Crone. What?

Reading is tech.

D3

Benmage fakeclaims Crone D3.
hasdgfas gets hammered.
Benmage retracts his Crone claim.

D4

Benmage fakeclaims cop-guilty on Lost Butterfly
Empking pushes hard for Benmage lynch
Benmage says "Empking is clearly the Crone" in #1889
Empking neither confirms nor denies this

[Lost Butterfly]

i'm pretty obviously the embodiment of charisma, so no, not the chrone.

[Nexus]

Also not the crone.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

If everyone was onto AGM, a recruit, and EVERYONE is looking for you, I'm pretty sure the CR will continue playing his neutral game or make it even more passive. The entire reasoning behind it is how obvious it is and that's why he never recruited DGB. AGM was definitely recruited N2, as per my ISO. Benmage N3, if only in the hopes to get a Cop recruit.

"Never" is a strong word for 2 nights; I'm not sure DGb was that obvious either.

I'm game for a massclaim. It can't really hurt at this point.

I've thought about it and I think we should stick to a Croneclaim (which should answer some questions). We've got a pretty idea of what the set-up looks like townwise and I'm having difficulty imagining a scenario wherein forcing the issue would be the smart move. It's one of the things where you think "yeah, this'll get us info" but when it comes down to it, it's pretty hard to pin down how exactly it's supposed to help us, like no-lynch when the nightkill or the lynch is obvious.

[Hinduragi]

I'm game for a massclaim. It can't really hurt at this point.

I've thought about it and I think we should stick to a Croneclaim (which should answer some questions). We've got a pretty idea of what the set-up looks like townwise and I'm having difficulty imagining a scenario wherein forcing the issue would be the smart move. It's one of the things where you think "yeah, this'll get us info" but when it comes down to it, it's pretty hard to pin down how exactly it's supposed to help us, like no-lynch when the nightkill or the lynch is obvious.

All the roles we know of have been claimed except 2: Crone and Stranger.

[Thor665]

Not Crone.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

I know, Hind. If we didn't have such concrete knowledge, I'd probably be advocating mass claim blindly.

[Hinduragi]

I'm pushing it because I can bag scum with it depending on the claims. I know how it will help us, but other people may not see it.

[Empking]

Waiting for a consensus - Crone

[Espeonage]

Ok,

Unless I am missing something, is it not Occam's Razor that the Crone is the scum fakeclaim?

[Magua]

Ok,

Unless I am missing something, is it not Occam's Razor that the Crone is the scum fakeclaim?

Yes, it is. Well, not "scum" -- could be cult, too, or could've been AGM's role.

Still would be nice for Bogre to make it all official like.

[Hinduragi]

Pretty sure Empking isn't mafia for the way he didn't counterclaim Benmage...Wait, Empking didn't claim Crone. What?

Reading is tech.

D3

Benmage fakeclaims Crone D3.
hasdgfas gets hammered.
Benmage retracts his Crone claim.

D4

Benmage fakeclaims cop-guilty on Lost Butterfly
Empking pushes hard for Benmage lynch
Benmage says "Empking is clearly the Crone" in #1889
Empking neither confirms nor denies this

I got that. I took it as Empking being the Crone, though.

[Benmage]

Waiting for a consensus - Crone

This isn't a crone claim??????

Then lynch empking no other explanation for him vehemently wanting me lynched. He had inside info.

[Espeonage]

He is saying that the person waiting for a consensus is the crone.

[Empking]

No I'm the Crone plus I was waiting for a consensus.

[Cogito Ergo Sum]

You should full-claim and point to breadcrums as far as I'm concerned.

[Lost Butterfly]

Was AGM pushing for Magua to be shot?

Just wondering as I don't remember it. Not that I think recruiting the person pushing you as CR is especially good play actually, or at least it's not how I'd play cult recruiter but i'm just curious.