Newbie 1117(Town Wins)

[verydark]

@Voided
We're not over the deadline, I mistakenly thought a countdown clock was how many days were left when it was posted...we have 9 days. Sorry for the confusion.

[ToastyToast]

@bv:

I switched to Kad because I honestly believe he has less to offer the town than I do.

Translated: "I think he's town, but I'd rather lynch someone worthless that get lynched myself."
If he outright said it, someone would've hammered.

And yes, I think BB and kad were the only possibilities at that point.

[bvoigt]

@bv:

I switched to Kad because I honestly believe he has less to offer the town than I do.

Translated: "I think he's town, but I'd rather lynch someone worthless that get lynched myself."
If he outright said it, someone would've hammered.

He said that

after

five or six posts explaining that kad was "a dumb read" and his top choice for scum.

[zMuffinMan]

I'd vote a town read if it came down to a choice between him and I.

Or if your problem with BB is that he was inconsistent with his read, I'm not entirely sure about that. Seems to me like he was saying that kad is either scum or "dumb" town, and if kad was town, BB was less of a liability, or something to that effect.

[bvoigt]

I'd vote a town read if it came down to a choice between him and I.

Yeah, that's the correct play, since (assuming you're town) there is of course a higher chance of a town read being scum than of you being scum.

Or if your problem with BB is that he was inconsistent with his read, I'm not entirely sure about that. Seems to me like he was saying that kad is either scum or "dumb" town, and if kad was town, BB was less of a liability, or something to that effect.

And he also called kad his "scummiest read."

[Voidedmafia]

@Voided
We're not over the deadline, I mistakenly thought a countdown clock was how many days were left when it was posted...we have 9 days. Sorry for the confusion.

Oh. Thanks for making me worry over nothing. <_<

Unvote: BB

[BBmolla]

I'd vote a town read if it came down to a choice between him and I.

Yeah, that's the correct play, since (assuming you're town) there is of course a higher chance of a town read being scum than of you being scum.

Or if your problem with BB is that he was inconsistent with his read, I'm not entirely sure about that. Seems to me like he was saying that kad is either scum or "dumb" town, and if kad was town, BB was less of a liability, or something to that effect.

And he also called kad his "scummiest read."

I wasn't lying, he was my scummiest read, except for maybe verydark. But the read itself was flawed because I didn't know if it was just him being dumb as town or him being scum.

Shall I repeat myself again?

[SomeRandomGuy]

I'd vote a town read if it came down to a choice between him and I.

Yeah, that's the correct play, since (assuming you're town) there is of course a higher chance of a town read being scum than of you being scum.

Or if your problem with BB is that he was inconsistent with his read, I'm not entirely sure about that. Seems to me like he was saying that kad is either scum or "dumb" town, and if kad was town, BB was less of a liability, or something to that effect.

And he also called kad his "scummiest read."

I wasn't lying, he was my scummiest read, except for maybe verydark. But the read itself was flawed because I didn't know if it was just him being dumb as town or him being scum.

Shall I repeat myself again?

Yes, please.

Right sorry i got inactive here for a while, lack of payment to virgin media etc,etc anyway got a couple of games i need to catch up with, hopefully will get through them all tonight, if not i'll respond here tomorrow. Will get a full read done

[SomeRandomGuy]

Right so i've had a re-read now and again let me appologise for my absence.

There's a lot of defence going on for BB if he is town (as i'm tenatively going to assume) then someone is likely defending him for all the wrong reasons.

Muffin, I don't like your 180 on me, not because your suspicion worries me but because PoE itself is flawed, especially when PoV is making you drop your previous major scum read (toasty) and moving you onto your previous biggest town read (me). If you want to make the case of me and bv being a scum team, feel free to do so, back it up with more than PoE and i'd respond to any points you raise. The other worrying thing here is that I don't see a cat in hells chance of you getting me lynched today and with a bit of suspicion seemingly going Bv's way from a few people if you managed to get him lynched you'd have the perfect in to continue pushing for my lynch, because we have toasty in the mix who you believe could also be my partner, although not as strongly as you think Bv could.

[SomeRandomGuy]

Also Muffin, the idea that the hammer was taken away from you in the last day means nothing to confirm the hammerer... there wasn't too much of a fall out from that and really nothing that couldn't be controlled - the fact that argument can be made, surely HELPS them to NOT appear scum? Nice that you'd make that case for them!

[zMuffinMan]

The idea that the hammer was taken away from me does mean nothing. It's mostly me trying to make sense of VCA (e.g. my theory about the 1-1 split between wagons when they were both at L-1). <-The main reason I think Voided is town for the hammer is because of that theory. Also, I have a slight town read on Voided apart from VCA.

Relatively strong town reads on BB/verydark.

I'm working off PoE here. If you think it's flawed, explain why.

It's not so much that I'm less suspicious of Toasty now, but that I can't see reasonable connections if he's scum. I still don't like his D1 play, and his D2 play hasn't left much better of an impression on me (tunneling Voided makes me sad).

Who are you currently suspicious of, btw? And what are your thoughts on bv? And Toasty for that matter.

[SomeRandomGuy]

Whilst it is completely possible that we had a scum on each side of the wagons it's not a dead certainty, if assuming that is the case leads you to through PoE to suspect your previous town read, it's perhaps time to rethink the possibility of 2 scum being on one wagon or one of the scum being the other wagon victim. The issue with connections toward me is that there's bound to be a few, most seem to trust me, the scum know that I'm town, to think that some would not use that to their advantage, as either town or scum wouldn't be the genius thing to do. I will say on the trust of me that I am of course not confirmed, everyone should absolutely still be considering that I could be scum but taking into account these things would be wise.
I actually wish I had taken the move I was heavily considering toward the end of Day 1, which was switching my vote to BB and bringing about a lynch, whilst some concerns are leaving my mind regarding him, looking back on Day 1 I actually find myself feeling his case was more compelling although Kad was infuriating.

Generally, the reason i think this PoE is flawed falls down to the fact it falls down to an assumption of 1 scum on each wagon, then it falls to perceived links when the scum team, if well played will have made links with townies and avoided too many links between themselves.

On Toasty and Bv:

Toasty - I've never felt as suspicious of him as you have previously, there've been no real slips from him and i find him fairly trustable.
Bv - He's hard to read, in fact at times i've considered he was perhaps scum mainly down to that reasoning though.

I do need to reread through the whole of the game which i will do soon, i'm trying to catch up with 4 games at the moment whilst trying to mess around with Google+ ^_^

[SomeRandomGuy]

Oh and my suspicions I'll answer again after the reread as hopefully i can find something i've missed or overlooked for some better reads.

[zMuffinMan]

Whilst it is completely possible that we had a scum on each side of the wagons it's not a dead certainty, if assuming that is the case leads you to through PoE to suspect your previous town read, it's perhaps time to rethink the possibility of 2 scum being on one wagon or one of the scum being the other wagon victim.

uh...

Actually, VCA has nothing to do with my PoE.

I'll explain this again.

I have strong town reads on BB and verydark.

I also have a town read on Voided.

^ Those reads are stronger than the town reads I had on you and bv yesterday.

PoE from there means I'm left with 3 candidates: you, bv, Toasty.

Based on VCA, still going with my 1-1 split theory, and looking at likely partnerships in that trio................

And that is how I came to my conclusion.

I'm just reading this game really terribly right now. Over the next day I will be having a thorough reread and re-assessing all my reads because I've gone terribly wrong somewhere, either D1 or D2, and I want to figure out where.

[ToastyToast]

prod dodge.
I don't think VCA is useful yet, given that there have been no flips. Unless you're going for the "third vote" tell (which is like prehistoric), I don't see why you (muffin) are focussing on that for your reads other than what has actually been done

-Recolbalt was scummy, and only gave input once
-voided had the whole "I'd vote me," thing, which is scummy regardless of what actually happened. Even if one didn't know who they were replacing, looking back on that slot and calling it scummy says something.
-voided is not scummy for his hammer

Also, I'm not tunneling at all, Muffin. I'm going after my number one suspect. I'm also pursuing my suspicions of bv. This is in no shape or form tunneling. I feel saying such is a complete misrep of my play.

PEDIT: Tell me what is actually giving you strong town reads. You have yet to explain your reasons for why you suspect bv and SRG, and you haven't said much on your town reads either.

I don't want to turn this into a lecture, but I find the fact that you are relying on VCA and other mechanical elements of the game over things people have said/done to be suspect.

[zMuffinMan]

There have been flips. VCA

is

useful, even if it's only been town flips. I don't use tells, I look at voting patterns. For example, the most common pattern you'll find in newbie games when looking through D1 mislynch votecounts is 1 scum on the lynch, 1 scum off the lynch. There are circumstances where you'll find both scum on the D1 lynch (most commonly when the only valid D1 counterwagon is on scum), and there are rarer circumstances where there will be no scum on a D1 mislynch, but in general, it's fairly reliable to assume 1 scum on, 1 scum off. The fact that there were two L-1 bandwagons D1 suggests one of two things. Scum were split or one of those wagons was scum. I don't think BB is scum, so I'm going with the 1-1 split as the most likely explanation here.

And no, I'm not relying on VCA or any other 'mechanical' elements of the game with my reads.

I'll explain my reads after a re-read, but they are actually pretty much all explained in my D2 posts.

[ToastyToast]

Okay, I'll wait for the new explanation. See, I just find VCA as unreliable. Experienced scummers might encourage bussing, for example, which would throw off your 1-scum-on, 1-scum-off theory.

[verydark]

I don't use tells, I look at voting patterns. For example, the most common pattern you'll find in newbie games when looking through D1 mislynch votecounts is 1 scum on the lynch, 1 scum off the lynch. There are circumstances where you'll find both scum on the D1 lynch (most commonly when the only valid D1 counterwagon is on scum), , but in general, it's fairly reliable to assume 1 scum on, 1 scum off. The fact that there were two L-1 bandwagons D1 suggests one of two things. Scum were split or one of those wagons was scum. I don't think BB is scum, so I'm going with the 1-1 split as the most likely explanation here.

So you don't think BB is scum, yet Kad was town. So you think BOTH our D1 wagons are town? Which wagon is the scum on? Both? I've reread this several times and am having difficulty understanding it. I've looked back at the voting patterns in D1 and nothing really jumps out at me. I have to admit I'm totally voting based off a gut feeling, but if you have some vote count evidence, I'd be more than happy to check it out.

[SomeRandomGuy]

The VCA is still integral to your argument, even if it is only narrowing the numbers from 3 to 2. The idea that your PoE is accurate enough that in those 3 you have both scum in it, is unlikely too.

[bvoigt]

Prod dodge. I still want to lynch BB.

[BBmolla]

If we're all dodging prods why doesn't the deadline just get shortened?

Also I'd still prefer a verydark/bvoigt lynch.

[Voidedmafia]

Deadlines don't get shortened, only extended in extreme circumstances.

Nothing has shaken my SRG-townread. I'm not really gonna be a fan of VCA in this case because as verydark pointed out, it'd likely mean that we had two town wagons going D1 instead of town/scum. And if that's true, you're kinda up a creek without a paddle, Muffin, as it seems that most of us aren't gonna buy PoE making SRG one of the scum.

I'm still good with BB hanging, and since bv's the only null read I have, I can go with him as an alternative.

[zMuffinMan]

OK, Voided.

VOTE: bv

Join me.

It's bv+1. Who his partner is, I'm not too sure at the moment. It's not BB. It's not verydark.

I'm about halfway through my reread, continuing it tomorrow when I have time.

[Voidedmafia]

I said bv's an alternative. BB's never really left the nullscum slot I've given him, so I'd lynch him over bv if it comes down to it.

Mod: Votecount, please?

[bvoigt]

There are just over 4 days until the deadline. It's time to see who's a viable lynch and who isn't.