Mini 1194: Reverse Mafia [Game Over]

[Pomegranate]

I'm trying to figure out how malp's recent posts (regarding CBD's lack of response) impacts my read on him; I'd say it comes off as overall town. He seemed excited (if a bit quick) to have 'found scum' in a way that gave me a fairly townie impression.

[ToastyToast]

Has he said anything that struck you as scum?

Bitching about RVS too much, then calling you scum, pushing it until Slaxx said something about you. Now your his big town read.

Whats scummy about the first though....

Because he's nitpicking/calling things scummy when they aren't.

[malpascp]

kiwi, pom, toasty, sc = my scumlist if anyone cares. maybe kiwi is just bad town but the others are giving me heavy scumvibes.

Explanation?

why are you guys even talking about me anymore? just get some more townies alive and call me when you nail scum

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

I just noticed something interesting.

Take a look at post #400.

CDB says he can't tell how bobsnox power would interfeer with town win-condition. This means that role isn't predicted in the setup, making bobsnox claim absolutely false!

bobsnox is scum

I'm so smart

*cough* bussing *cough*

Yeah, everyone had already noted this.

@kiwi: why did you say I pushed for bobsnox revival? I was clearly against it (I think)

You didn't answer this yet.

Maybe we should use all the day to discuss on who is scum before someone hammers Bub

[MrTrow]

Maybe we should use all the day to discuss on who is scum before someone hammers Bub

True:
Bub - Parama scumpair not possible (Parama should have hammered otherwise)
Bub - Crypto scumpair unlikely (hammer possibility has been out there too long and he must have seen the 'heads up i`m gonna vote Bub soon' by Packbat)
so unless Bub/Packbat are buddies resurrecting Bub doesn`t end the game.

I didn`t find anything to exclude this possibility, i`d say if packbat is in any way likely to be scum we will not revive bub.
At this point i`d like to see parama`s packbat-scum case. (as this is an 'if you are right and we miss it, we lose'-situation please don`t just refer to your ISO on this one)
Also kiwi`s 'bub is laying low since he has accoplisched his objective of looking town' is a valid observation. (i`m not so sold on bub-scum myself, but this tell is indeed out there)

As for Bobsnox: as far as i`m concerned he`s scum:
his role makes sense if going for the 'all mafia dead'-wincon, which a 1-shot should not be leading
or for the 'all town has been alive'-wincon if this translates to 'no town in limbo'(instead of 'all town must at some point have had the status

alive

')
the fact he didn`t check the latter, more than a week after the 'no-comment' response to the loaded version of this question has been pointed out as 'not confirming/denying the claimed role', says enough to me.
(The "you" in that post indicated to me that a by-pm question from bobsnox would produce an answer.)


Also there is a connection between StrangerCoug and Parama:

If I understand this right, crypto and Packbat can't both be scum or the game would be over, but if they're both town I am going to jump off the Empire State Building.

Pointing out there can be at most 1 scum among the living and calling 1 scum in 2 of the living is a great way to imply parama has to be town without ever having to state it.

I`m wondering SC: is your suspicion on crypto based on more than his FoS on the lurker?

[Bub Bidderskins]

I'm not really sold on that SC/Parama connection, it seems really minor to me.

[StrangerCoug]

Because he's nitpicking/calling things scummy when they aren't.

What did I nitpick about/call scummy that is not scummy? You need to give us examples if you want us to consider your case on me credible.

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

Why the emphasis on the word "me"? This comes off to me as a scumslip.

I`m wondering SC: is your suspicion on crypto based on more than his FoS on the lurker?

It currently is. He is himself lurking and has clearly demonstrated that he is clueless about what is going on. Frankly, my dear, I don't think he gives a damn.

[kiwieagle]

I'm trying to figure out how malp's recent posts (regarding CBD's lack of response) impacts my read on him; I'd say it comes off as overall town. He seemed excited (if a bit quick) to have 'found scum' in a way that gave me a fairly townie impression.

it gave the opposite to me tbh

[kiwieagle]

kiwi, pom, toasty, sc = my scumlist if anyone cares. maybe kiwi is just bad town but the others are giving me heavy scumvibes.

Explanation?

why are you guys even talking about me anymore? just get some more townies alive and call me when you nail scum

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

I just noticed something interesting.

Take a look at post #400.

CDB says he can't tell how bobsnox power would interfeer with town win-condition. This means that role isn't predicted in the setup, making bobsnox claim absolutely false!

bobsnox is scum

I'm so smart

*cough* bussing *cough*

Yeah, everyone had already noted this.

@kiwi: why did you say I pushed for bobsnox revival? I was clearly against it (I think)

You didn't answer this yet.

Maybe we should use all the day to discuss on who is scum before someone hammers Bub

post 411

[ToastyToast]

For the sake of fair voting, I am not going to participate in RVS.

The hell? This is not the RVS; right now Parama's discussing player meta to determine who should be revived. Nobody's vote is random in either the usually applied sense or the true sense.

Who gives a shit? This isn't even why Awesoma is scummy.

How do our votes lack "true backing"? I voted Parama because he can be a vicious scumhunter, while my self-vote is admittedly a bit WIFOM-based as I don't see why someone who's been crap as scum lately would offer him- or herself to be revived unless the person is town.

Here your just asking for a needed explanation, but I really didn't like the WIFOM bit. Also, who is the crappy scum referring to?

Here's a hint: When people are actually contributing, the RVS is over. There were already a few people that were major topics of discussion: Parama and I are the main candidates for revival, while Awesoma is being viewed as scummy. You chose to talk about none of us, so I don't plan on reviving you in the foreseeable future.

"MER MER MER. I'm SC and I think there's enough evidence to revive me this early in the game! Anyone who ignores me or Parama is scum. MERRR"

ugh. Happy?

[Parama]

guys drop what you're doing I'm rereading and I will have a read on everyone by the time this is over. Game will be WON for sure.

[StrangerCoug]

For the sake of fair voting, I am not going to participate in RVS.

The hell? This is not the RVS; right now Parama's discussing player meta to determine who should be revived. Nobody's vote is random in either the usually applied sense or the true sense.

Who gives a shit? This isn't even why Awesoma is scummy.

If I'm talking about it, then obviously I give a shit. Awesoma was never exempt from making meaningful contributions to the game. The RVS, as I saw it, did not exist in this game, so I saw the comment as non sequitir. What did he add to the information that others have put in? Nothing. All it is is fluff. See what you quoted below.

How do our votes lack "true backing"? I voted Parama because he can be a vicious scumhunter, while my self-vote is admittedly a bit WIFOM-based as I don't see why someone who's been crap as scum lately would offer him- or herself to be revived unless the person is town.

Here your just asking for a needed explanation, but I really didn't like the WIFOM bit. Also, who is the crappy scum referring to?

I was referring to myself as "crap as scum lately". I'm currently on a five-game losing streak as that alignment.

Here's a hint: When people are actually contributing, the RVS is over. There were already a few people that were major topics of discussion: Parama and I are the main candidates for revival, while Awesoma is being viewed as scummy. You chose to talk about none of us, so I don't plan on reviving you in the foreseeable future.

"MER MER MER. I'm SC and I think there's enough evidence to revive me this early in the game! Anyone who ignores me or Parama is scum. MERRR"

I was being as objective as I could. Nowhere in the quoted post do I say that I should be revived over anyone else except you and Awesoma. I know it seems like since he, Parama, and I were the main topics of discussion, you were prohibited to talk about anybody else, but if you made a meaningful post about someone other than the three of us I would not have condemned you per se. The point I was making was that you needed to post content.

[Parama]

What this post is:
I started on page 1, read the entire game, and moved limbo people around after catching town and scumtells. No elaboration, because I've been bad at that recently. +3 to get over the green line, -3 to get under the red line. Anyone alive is irrelevant at this point in terms of reviving. Packbat is pretty much confirmed scum and I may use some association tells from that, but it won't be a major factor.
Mid-D1-read comment: You know what, no. I want to reconsider that Packbat read now. I am smelling a few things - namely, desperate scum, among a few players. They NEED a revival today, I bet, else everyone alive gets confirmed town otherwise. I will elaborate on some stuff later but the pieces are all coming together now.

ToastyToast +infinity; townslipped
Pomegranate +3

----------------

Bub Bidderskins +2
AntB
bobsnox -1
StrangerCoug -2

----------------

kiwieagle -3
MrTrow/Awesoma -4
malpascp/wredfar -7

SC #5 +1
Awesoma #16 -2
Bub #29 +1
Toasty #31 -1
Bub #67 +1
Awesoma #90 -2
AntB #92 +1
bobsnox #104 +2
Toasty #113 -2
kiwi #122 -1
Pome #145 +2
bobsnox #164 -1
kiwi #166 +3
kiwi #195 -1
Pome #221 +1
malp #231 -1
bobsnox #256 -1
Toasty #304 TOWNSLIP
malp #308 -1
SC #337 -1
malp #374 -2
bobsnox #393 -1
kiwi #409 -1
kiwi #421 -3 (this is close to a scumslip IMO...)
SC #429 -2
AntB #452 -1
malp #509 -3

Logically the scumteam here is malp/Trow/kiwi... I think this is unlikely at best, impossible in reality.
What the hell I think is going down in this thread:
SC/Bub/malp scumteam.
Yes I realize I have some townpoints on Bub. But... the association is very clear. SC's way of pushing the Bub wagon reeks, and malp fits in really nicely with this proposed team. If malp isn't scum, then kiwi is. I am going to call a mulligan on Awesoma because I think, frankly, he was a terrible player. Just that, nothing more.

Anyways, Toasty townslipped. That should be our revive today. I'm actually surprised nobody caught it, so I'll explain it:

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

What the slip is:
Toasty doesn't understand the scum win-condition correctly. I see no way in hell scum wouldn't know their own wincon, and he completely botched it here, unless I'm misreading something, which seems unlikely. Even then, Toasty gives off lots of townie vibes in recent posting; I stopped keeping track of him after his townslip though.
I really want to go to N1 with 4 town alive so we can have 4 confirmed town and basically an auto-won game from that point. If I'm right about everyone alive being town, then BUB SHOULD NOT BE REVIVED TODAY. If I'm wrong, BUB SHOULD NOT BE REVIVED TODAY. This is not his fault. It is almost 100% association, but Packbat's alignment has nothing to do with it at this point, and Packbat's alignment is the only one I'd call into question of the living players.

SC's posts seemed good at first, but I realized what game he's playing - he's trying to appeal to Pack's good side because he knows Pack's town and Bub's scum, and Pack is the most likely of the three living players to vote Bub. Lots of subtle stuff, but I think he's been getting what he wants and he knows it; the problem is that his attempts are just a bit too transparent.

My crackpot theories make some sense I guess. Either way I think it's a good idea to

vote: ToastyToast

and see what happens from that point on.

[Parama]

I am now only slightly more confident in my reads after that reread, btw... this game is shaping up to be a mindscrew game.

[Packbat]

Anyways, Toasty townslipped. That should be our revive today. I'm actually surprised nobody caught it, so I'll explain it:

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

What the slip is:
Toasty doesn't understand the scum win-condition correctly. I see no way in hell scum wouldn't know their own wincon, and he completely botched it here, unless I'm misreading something, which seems unlikely. Even then, Toasty gives off lots of townie vibes in recent posting; I stopped keeping track of him after his townslip though.

That sounds really plausible. I hadn't thought that angle through, but if you're right, we absolutely must revive ToastyToast today.

UNVOTE: Bub Bidderskins

I'm not going to hammer Toast without thinking it over, but the possibility of having a 4-player conftown team is too good to resist.

[bobsnox]

Parama's post sounds good to me

Toasty was a scumread for me but that does look like a townslip

[malpascp]

why are you guys even talking about me anymore? just get some more townies alive and call me when you nail scum

Yeah, you guys to the work, just don't nail

me

I was translating bobsnox's post. Duh.

I don't get Parama's point. Slaxx being scum wouldn't end the game, so I don't see where Toasty town-sliped.

Anyway, I think Bub and SC being scumbudies is highly unlikely reading the whole game. Bub is our best shot for today, and I dislike everyone suddenly seeing Toasty as near conf-town.

@Everyone: any thoughts on connections between Toasty and anyone else alive?

[Packbat]

[...] I dislike everyone suddenly seeing Toasty as near conf-town.

@Everyone: any thoughts on connections between Toasty and anyone else alive?

Toasty-Parama is possible based on ToastyToast's early play - his ISO has him expressing hesitance to vote for Par followed by an L-1 with very little explanation, which would be a natural pattern for scumpartners. That would also be supported by the way that Parama and Toasty staked out opposite positions on

my

revival Day 0.75, although Toast's retreat after Par's initial objection doesn't fit.

However, what makes

zero

sense from a scumpartners perspective is the townslip post.

lolwut? I was just watching soccer, and then I came back and thought Slaxx claimed scum (which is impossible given that we revived you first and therefore the game would have ended immediately.

Do the math. For this to be scum:

1. Toasty would have to realize that this was a confusion that a town player could have (especially unlikely if he's partners with Par, who was alive to make it one-and-one).
2. Toasty would have to make plans to express this confusion in some context.
3. Toasty would have to see #284 and realize that it was a perfect opportunity to unleash it.

That doesn't seem plausible to me. The post doesn't even read like a fake-misunderstanding post; there's too little brains in it.

[AntB]

Paramas explanation of toastys townslip makes sense. Mals slips more...

[AntB]

(down the scale)

[kiwieagle]

Im fine with everyone but bobsnox tbh.

Also:
I have no idea why slaxx would revive crypto.
he was playing bad

this is a scumslip?

[Parama]

"Everyone but bobsnox" is 100% guaranteed to contain at least one scum.

[bobsnox]

lol more than one since I'm not scum.

[kiwieagle]

But do we know who they are?

[bobsnox]

lolyou

[Parama]

No, but you just claimed that you don't give a damn about who's revived as long as they're not the PR that's (according to my theory) the most dangerous to scum.