Brightest Day Mafia, Part 1 - GAME OVER

Kast · Post Post #50 (isolation #0) » Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:38 am

/Confirm

Kast · Post Post #259 (isolation #1) » Fri Jul 29, 2011 5:46 am

Oops, didn't get any notifications that there were new posts. Gonna try to catch up sometime today/tonight.

Kast · Post Post #409 (isolation #2) » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:55 pm

There's a lot of posts. I didn't read the thread after my last post. I've skimmed through and noted some things.

Agree with choice claim. I picked Non-Lantern, Colored Lantern, Black/White Lantern. I got Colored Lantern.

NPIAU wrote:Implying one of them is lying. I lean Nikanor actually. Though I'm not sure what their reason for lying could be.

Agree. In BNM Yellow scum successfully used this exact same analysis to find Red scum (that plus Red scum made themselves obvious).

Nik backtracking and claiming potential White Lantern could be a legitimate mistake or could be grabbing onto an excuse

, the mason claim is plausible.

FM wrote:So until we have flips or
have Cop claim that gives flavor Mod responses that restrict Mafia to a set group
nothing about the make-up should be assumed. I’d expect a Mafia team mix (some Red / Yellow Lanterns, some other Villans, maybe a White Lantern)

iHsib's miller claim pretty much tells us that Red

is

a characteristic of Mafia. It may not be the

only

characteristic, but to say being Red makes you investigate as Mafia is nigh equivalent to the

underlined

.

CJ wrote:This wagon needs to happen. Firstly, Ooba starts the game with a joke about voting LLD, which is normal, but then immediatly glosses over joke voting LLD, despite given a golden opportunity to do so with her 'slip' when she typed goon, instead rolling the dice and going with their results on who to vote. I'm not sure why he did this, but it is more likely that town would have plunked down a vote on LLD without worrying instead of ignoring that opportunity and moving onto something else alltogether. (voting vezok)

Also, the fact that through nine posts he has not gotten a single thought in about who is more likely scum than town, or who the cult recruiter is (instead promising it in three days (?)),but has instead talked about the flavour of the game (and his speculation isn't even that helpful) definently is more likely to come from someone anti-town who wants to wait and see how things unfold.

Agree with most of this (and with Mastin's assessment of Ooba's post). However, Ooba I'm not sure why CJ thinks Ooba sounds more like Mafia than Cult given the linked post.

Also, it seems Mastin is mixing reads with random/joke/fake mod-confirms, but I'm having trouble reconciling this with him ID'ing Ooba as Cult

prior to

Ooba posting anything indicative of that

.

Toast wrote:We could just say which corps/non-lantern group we are in

Agree with this.

CJ wrote:Now, why does ooba want us to focus exclusively on one scumgroup D1? Because he's scum from the other faction (Mafia) and wants to a) buy a pass for not hunting other members of his faction and b) potentially buy his faction a free pass into lategame.

I read it a lot more like Ooba trying to take a leading role in directing lynches. If he is CR, then he can even throw town a bone and "successfully" lynch a recruit or two (hell, if there really are TWO CRs, he could even gambit and "successfully" lynch the CR or CR Backup for loads of town-cred).

Friend wrote:I'm not scum, and you pushing it is getting increasingly anti-town.

In other words, "I'll call you town if you stop calling me scum."

@Nik/Friend/Muffin-
Are you guys actually claiming some sort of mod guilty on Toog? If you have something concrete, then I'm ok with placing a vote there, but if it's just the cases that you've been pushing, then no dice; they haven't been particularly convincing.

VOTE: Ooba

Kast · Post Post #475 (isolation #3) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:56 am

With Toog lynched, I'm keeping my vote where it is.

@Ooba-
This was ridiculous. There's no need to invent a BS reason to justify voting Toog. The claimed guilty is the reason for lynching him. Also, your flavor chronology is screwed up and indicates you have not actually read the comics but instead are just quoting bits and pieces from a wiki (or whatever source). Ganthet became a Deputy Green Lantern at the same time that Luthor became a Deputy Orange Lantern.

More than that though, the Mod took liberties flavor in BNM and has said he may do the same in BDM. Flavor CAN be helpful, but this was not an example of that.

@Tans-
Does your PM mention of Luthor include anything that identifies or hints at Luthor

as town

, or is that just a conclusion you are drawing?

The flavor of Luthor's as a villain AND his betrayal of his mission support him as prob-scum. The Governor claim asks to be tested (and Ooba's claim to be town but to be unwilling to Governor himself is WTF?!?). But trumping both of those is that his play itself strongly suggests he is playing as scum.

And this is getting to outguessing the mods, but I think his posted choice submission speculation for game setup has a good chance at being correct and I would expect Dana to give Ooba Luthor/SK/Independent given his post guessing about Luthor

.

I could see Tans as town with Ooba as scum (of some sort). I could also see a Larfleeze/Luthor pair as two third party roles (potentially not on the same team as each other).

@Mastin-
Your softclaim as

X

of

X

and

Y

STRONGLY suggests who you and

Y

are

AND

STRONGLY suggests that

Y

is a role that probably does not want to reveal herself. But it looks much more like a town-town pair than the Oranges.

Kast · Post Post #478 (isolation #4) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:03 am

@LLD-
Also, please stop with the colored font stuff. It's annoying for others to read. If that's not enough reason for you to stop, it's also technically against the rules.

@Mod-

After a lynch does the vote count reset or do we continue with the previous votes?

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Ooba

Kast · Post Post #481 (isolation #5) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:47 am

Ooba wrote:- There is no reason for me (as scum) to invent a BS reason to vote Toog when I could have just sheeped the rest into voting for the guilty. Absence of any scum motivation for pointing out that his claim didn't fit the {white,tans-me} claims points to me doing exactly what I said I was - pointing out discrepencies as town.

This is NOT what I said at all and is ridiculous. There is no reason for you (as town) to invent a BS reason to vote Toog. There is pretty obvious reason for scum Ooba to BS a reason; it looks like you were over-justifying your vote and/or pretending that you had a unique/legitimate reason for voting to buy yourself town-cred when Toog flipped.

Kast · Post Post #482 (isolation #6) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:55 am

Submitted before finishing response.

If a townie can stop the lynch of a confirmed townie, then he should. There's NO guarantee at all that you'd be lynched again, but not using your power GUARANTEES that a townie PR gets mislynched.

Am I cult?
No. I am not going to come out of the gates cult hunting as cult. Lying low or just general scum hunting (i.e my regular play as Mafia) would have carried me through most of the game without getting lynched.

Wifom.

Am I scum?
No. One, I have tans vouching for me. Two, the brokeness of the Janitor+Governor combo should be apparent.

Is this serious at all?

Am I third-party?
If I was third party like Tans last time, the mods would have given me a fakeclaim. (Tans had "Sodam Yat" last game)

It is certainly possible that you have a fake claim you chose not to use. (Especially given your claim was AFTER a Larfleeze claim that didn't result in a lynch). It's also entirely possible that you are lying about being Luthor or having a Governor power at all. The whole "I'm a governor but I'm not going to use it. Oh wait I can't use it." Doesn't exactly ring with confidence.

Kast · Post Post #514 (isolation #7) » Tue Aug 02, 2011 10:45 am

@Ooba's Defense-
All I'm really seeing is you repeatedly stating that Tans claim proves you are Lex Luthor and that Lex Luthor cannot be mafia.

What Tans ACTUALLY posted is:

My role PM mentions Lex Luthor...

I'm thinking if you are on the Ooba wagon you should get off it now

See the thing is my PM basically says
I gave my powers to Lex Luthor for the time being
(24 hours) but
I will get them back
.

So I'm unsure of what to make of his role. I believe he is Lex Luthor, but I am wondering if he might turn after D1 into another faction.

Taken from Wikipedia:

Lex Luthor (of Sector 2814): During the Blackest Night event, Lex Luthor is granted membership to the Orange Lantern Corps for a period of 24 hours, becoming the only other living member of the Corps besides Larfleeze himself.[14] In the final issue of Blackest Night, Luthor's power ring and Orange Lantern abilities faded away.[16]

Anyone know what happens to Lex after the 24 hours is up in the comics?

Nothing in there even suggests anything about Luthor's alignment. As far as what's been claimed, Tans has specifically mentioned a

flavor reason for a potential mechanic tie for Tans getting a power-up in future

; and from this he is assuming that Luthor might be present in the game.

The flavor behind the claim itself doesn't really make sense in that

Larfleeze did NOT give away his own ring/power

; the whole point of the Deputizing was to INCREASE the number of lanterns to BOLSTER each corps. It's not damning, but it's certainly NOT a reason to trust or clear Ooba.

I'm getting bad vibes from the whole, "Tans confirmed me, leave me alone" nonsense.

@Mastin-
You're right, my mistake. You did claim

Y

and not

X

. I'm semi-incredulous that you claimed that. It seems like a horrible move for town. I suppose that fits with the level of random/non-existent analysis and reads you've arbitrarily and incomprehensibly latched onto. I suppose that just shows the level of play that should be expected from you

To be clear, Mastin's soft claim does strongly indicate town. His play indicates bad town.

Kast · Post Post #660 (isolation #8) » Wed Aug 03, 2011 3:22 pm

I'm going to be V/LA from August 6th until August 23rd. I might have internet access while travelling, but I'll probably be too busy to stay current with the game.

I've checked this with the mod already so my twin brother is going to fill in for me while I am V/LA. He'll be posting from this account since he doesn't play mafia on mafiascum (but he's played extensively on other sites and is very familiar with mafia game mechanics and theory). We think similarly enough about things that it'll probably be indistinguishable except he'll be active in East Coast Time Zone and he won't know any of you.

Kast · Post Post #733 (isolation #9) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:09 am

Nikanor wrote:because otherwise ML wouldn't have tried to hammer like that.

Not necessarily the case. It's entirely possible that this is some sort of gambit by CJ. It seems unlikely that scum would single out CJ's vote on Apok when Ooba had and has so much attention and CJ's participation in the lynch is unnecessary and could easily have gone completely unnoticed. (Should go without saying, but it's just as unlikely if not more so that a townie would randomly freeze CJ's vote and not claim it; though it's possible it was a townie who has not posted since this came to light).

I did not previously think CJ is/was scummy, but it's hard to believe he doesn't know what's going on. Whether this is some kind of town gambit, or some kind of scum ploy; it's hard to determine with the information at hand. It doesn't seem at all plausible to me that scum would arbitrarily freeze CJ or that they would arbitrarily freeze a player voting Apok. Neither seems even remotely relevant to today's lynch in any way.

@Mod Re:Two scum teams-

You know that there is
a
cult (the Black Lanterns).

You know that there is
a
mafia faction in this game.

Does the "a" in either of the two quoted special rules indicate that there is a single cult and a single mafia faction, or does it just indicate "at least one" of either?

Kast · Post Post #737 (isolation #10) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:25 am

@Toast-
I thought that was pretty clear; I can't see any reason why scum would:
1) Freeze CJ's vote
2) Freeze a vote on Apok

Additionally, none of this distraction and aimless speculation would be happening if CJ hadn't posted an apparent hammer vote on Ooba. The vote itself is odd since:
-CJ had very explicitly stated unwillingness to lynch Ooba today.
-Ooba has very explicitly requested a chance to post final thoughts before anyone hammers.

Game play wise it doesn't make sense. Game mechanics wise it is at best a complete waste of a vote freeze (if that is what it is).

Beyond that, if CJ/Tar decided to gambit, there's LOTS of plausible explanations for why "he froze his own vote", whereas there's really NONE for why someone else would do so.

Kast · Post Post #742 (isolation #11) » Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:46 am

@Nik-
-Are you running with Mastin's speculation that there are two scum teams, one of whom froze CJ's vote, the other of whom contains CJ/Ooba, AND that CJ just got caught when he attempted a hammer-bus?
-Are you proposing something similar, only calling CJ a BL who got caught by an unexpected scum ability?

I do not see a scum motivation for scum to freeze CJ's vote. Since it seems other players are unaffected, it's a very ineffective way to protect Ooba. It potentially buys town-cred for CJ if he's seen as a victim of a scum ability; but that also seems unnecessary.

@Toast-
A passive mechanic would be more plausible than randomly targetting CJ/Apok, ie. some scum ability that freezes the vote of first person to try hammering Ooba. But that still seems unlikely. If it were true is says NOTHING AT ALL about CJ being town; and it still allows the possibility that CJ's vote was a gambit/scum-ploy.

Kast · Post Post #821 (isolation #12) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:27 am

Just checking in, wrote this up during the looooong Night 1, sorry I couldn't join in on Day 1. As Kast posted, I'm his twin brother and will play for him until he is back on the 23rd. Trying to get a grasp on all the players/alts; I've never played with hydras before.

After reading through all those posts day 1, I think I have some decent reads on the more prolific posters. Nikanor, Muffin, Friend, Hiplop, Subliminal, and Mastin strike me as town. Andrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

Don't have much of an opinion on the rest, or not enough to warrant sharing. Do you guys usually share speculation on night actions and supected motivations, or is that better to keep hidden for now and bring it up when there is a more solid case? Normally I play assuming that a scum team is already just as capable of noticing any observations or conclusions I make from public information, so it's better to share with the other townies that might not have noticed things.

Either way, I will probably be posting a more in depth analysis for the players I find more suspicious. Yesterday's vote weirdness seems the most pressing point to me; that and CJ's attempted hammer, even if it technically happened after the day was over. Since we now know ooba was town, we can surmise there was neither a scum motivation to try to save ooba by preventing a vote switch, nor motivation for scum to prevent a non-scum CJ from voting a town ooba.

Kast · Post Post #896 (isolation #13) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 10:48 am

Um...why is oversoul voting Toast? Nik already pointed out the directed kill strategy.

CJ, Andrius and Vezok seem the most likely mafia (likely others as well). Unless I miss read something (false humility), vezok claimed day 1 that he is JL, and that Nik and company were lying about being JL. Link to post 442 as reference. That, combined with claiming to become a WL by buddying up to hiplop and using "role" info that hiplop announced to gain town cred, make him a likely scum player.

Andrius also rubs me with a scum feel due to the tone of some of his Day 1 posts. Both posts include statements that come from a uniquely scum=mafia perspective. Link to posts 519, complains about mod making the game unbalanced against scum, and 542, concludes that cult team can screw over mafia team, thus concluding that scum are screwed if culted (when in fact only *mafia* would be screwed, while cult would be doing really well). Either case, both posts draw conclusions that come from a largely scum perspective (also, he talks WAY too much).

Kast · Post Post #898 (isolation #14) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:03 am

Friend, I have very little read on WLC. I think he posted what... 7-8 times?

He checked in, voted ooba for random voting (which we know for certain was a random vote), choice claim, claim he was going to read through everything, post that he is sure about the ooba vote, revote for ooba after the first lynch, and idle speculation that the vote weirdness was due to ooba.

As I found ooba suspicious as well, I didn't get any odd vibe from the limited posts, but re-reading knowing that ooba was town, it does give me a scummy feeling.

Kast · Post Post #899 (isolation #15) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 11:05 am

On balance though, I don't see anything that would imply cult necessarily, as opposed to mafia? You were coming from the perspective that WLC is cult, and I don't usually associate cult members to be gunning hard for anyone in particular unless they have reason to think the player is a danger to the cult.

Kast · Post Post #1020 (isolation #16) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:07 pm

Andy:
It's a scum perspective because a townie wouldn't assume scum is screwed, since mafia scum would be screwed but cult and SK woudl be benefitted or unaffected respectively. It would require you to be highly imprecise to make that mixup between scum and mafia. They CAN be used interchangeably, but as you yourself criticized earlier in Day 1, I doubt you would be so careless unless it was slip up.

While this is certainly a subtlety in language, from your posts yesterday, I'm fairly sure you can grasp it. If you disagree (with the content, not with your ability to grasp finer points), then please say so, but don't try to use a technicality to deflect it suc has the potential interchangeability of two words.

Also, as far as mafia perspective from public information, that's a simple concept. It comes down to two points: (1) information asymmetry allows mafia to draw greater conclusions than any single town player;

especially as they can work in concert and point things out to fellow mafioso if someone does miss a point

, and (2) the fact that mafia have a different end goal, thus are more perceptive to things that are more relevance to them (forget the technical term for this, I keep thinking selective bias but I know that's wrong term);

the fire inspector walks into the music store and observes all the escape routes while the guitar enthusiast only sees the vintage Les Paul

.

Blackberry:
Nice observation. I'm curious as well on the distinction. I assumed uncultable was the same as unrecruitable.

Mod, can we assume these two ability keywords are identical, much like a cop and a detective?

Peregrine:
NPIAU half-assed Vezok, but I don't recall NPIAU every claiming or being included in the mass JL claim.

@Oversoul:

Nik in 865 wrote:He's an SK so we're just going to direct his shots dude.

^--update:This is the most retarded thing to claim if you don't actually know the player is an SK

hiplop wrote:wait, you think I'm VEZOKS partner? WTF.

No...maybe you use the term differently, but from a general grammatical structure, if I say "A claims to be a WL by buddying up to B" that means A is trying to associate himself with B. In this case, Vezok claims to have the same WL mechanic that you claimed, to give him townie cred when for all we know he just copied the information you already stated. I think you are pretty solidly town, hence why he was trying to associate himself with you.

RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this. I have susp[icions on both, and may have soemthign useful to contribute...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?

"A mason whose investigative, bulletproof, and can pass through my ability? Yeah there's no way in hell thats town." <- yes it's possible based on Nik's post
"He actually said that the first investigation was his didn't he? He said he was the first to send it in via PM." <- no he said it's a group power and he was the first to submit. This is a subtle distinction again, but it is very different.

I believe he claiemd a *day* investigation that was a mason team investigation. Day 1. But I think I'm willing to test your 1-for-1 trade, and if we lynch you first. It's tricky since your'e an SK and by common game strategy (where I learned to play), you always use the SK as long as you can.

Nik, are you willing to play chicken with Toast?

Andy wrote:That's the dumbest freaking question ever.

No, it's actually very sensible. Tans is more and more making snese to me. In light of the fact that nik claimed the investigate was a day investigate mason team power, this is consistent and directly comparable to a group ability such as the mafia kill. **I am assuming of course that mafia collectively make a the kill based on the posted site information and the discussion in that quote and others in this thread, but that seems a pretty safe assumption...

"@Nikanor: You dumbass." QFT.

HE DIDNT CLAIM IT THOUGH DID HE?
I THOUGHT HE SAID HE DIDNT LOSE IT.

Dude...we all SAW the post where he lost his BP. Maybe you couldn't guess who it was, but friendly and Nik both hinted at it pretty blatantly. I'm going to start relaxing my general assumption that mafia collectively is as observant as any given player.

[offtopic]Death Note - Interesting manga series.[/offtopic]

I'm willing to lynch Nik now. If he's scum, and we leave him, we'll be in martyr syndrom and if he's jsut an arrogant ad ballsy townie who's willing to fake claim SK results on someone he thinks is MAFIA Jailkeeper, then he's a retard that made a false clai mdesigned to keep mafia alive longer and lull the town into a foolish assumption.

Of the claimed JL masons, can I get a straight word from someone that hasn't completely shot his credibility and competency (read hiplop/friend/muffin), who can you ACTUALLY objectively vouch for? I don't want your read right now; I want to know objectively who I can trust.

Kast · Post Post #1022 (isolation #17) » Mon Aug 08, 2011 5:22 pm

Muffin: are you in a mason group with Nik, hiplop, and friend, and do you know for a fact that none of them are mafia? I'm only interested in objective Mod-given confirmation. For instance, if you are all WLC rather than Justice Leaguers (since we know LLD wasn't in your mason claim and WAS JL), I would assume with just flavor information that you are actually confirmed non cult but nothing beyond that.

Kast · Post Post #1050 (isolation #18) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:29 am

NPIAU:
That's mistating my point; I don't

want

a Nik lynch, but I'm

willing

to lynch him. He's either a retarded town or scum. It seems to me the most compelling reason Nik is town is because of the JL/WL claim, but Nik himself is claiming there are WL fake claims. BTW, since others keep (mis)stating this, did oyu during Day 1 ever claim to be part of the Nik/Friend/Muff/hiplop Mod PM issue? from what I see you only stated you trusted them, not that you were part of them.

Spoiler: Thoughts on Nik - in summary he's probably just a retarded townie

Friend (and other

PM-Masons

):
Are you actually a mason with Nik, or did you just assume he's town because he knew about a PM that multiple claimed WL players received?

Nik wrote:ooba, there is no way in hell that anyone from our masonry is a CR. Mafia, maaaaaaybe. But not CR.

Muffin/Friend/Hiplop, as the three other claimed PM receivers, I would like confirmation on this point. I asked earlier as well, and wasn't answered. Are you actually masons, or are you just assuming? If assumption, is this flavor based? See, when I learned mafia, mason was an actual role, not what you call someone when you assume they are town and they assume you are town. So if itns' not a role here, that would explain a LOT of the logical contradictions and blatant lies I'm seeing from Nik.

muffin wrote:So, I'm thinking LLD was a scum kill, Frozen was hero-vigged and we have day-killing scum.

I missed this from you. I also think this may make sense; I was wonderign why others had earlier assumed LLD was vigged while FM was mafia killed. I thought both of the two were likely town, FM for good town play and LLD for hysterics.

Anyway, I agree that it would be best to lynch cult. I'm not sure I buy into the theories on who the cultists are. I think WLC is more likely cult than Apok, but going through my notes I can't find anything specific to indicate why I have that thought. I may have internalized some of NPIAU's arguments.

I think the most obvscum right now is Andy, and that he is most likely mafia, next most likely an ADD townie, and unlikely SK or cult.

pedit: Mr.S, I would like to hear your reasoning for the Nik pseudo vote.

Kast · Post Post #1051 (isolation #19) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 3:30 am

Oh, and while I'm at it, I'm going to

vote: Andy

, with understanding that I'm quite willing to lynch cult if someone actually makes a good case.

Kast · Post Post #1054 (isolation #20) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 4:15 am

pedit: Thanks for the response muffin. As you might expect, it doesn't really do much to clear up any confusion on my part. Can you at least clarify who are the publicly claimed members of your masonry? From what I read of Day 1, there are 4 members who explicitly claimed to receive a Mod PM:

Nik
Muffin
Friend
Hiplop

Since then, Friend has multiple times vaguely and multiple times blatantly defended and included nopointinactingup as another member of the masonry, or as a confirmed townie. A few other players have referenced nopoint's posts as being form the mason team as well.

Apok wrote:Kast's twin: Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.

Learn2read. I am not, nor have I ever voted for Nik - note: I am willing to lynch him, but that is more for meta reasons. Probably not as relevant since I don't play on this forum, but I typically ascribe to the philosophy that the only way to discourage retarded play is to lynch all retards.

Also Nik is no more confirmed than town Muffin, yet you're FoS'ing Muffin. Cognitive dissonance much? I'm still waiting on some explanation from the PM-Masons...

I'm going to go back through and try to look for hints of cult play. Admittedly not my strong point.

Andy wrote:
Me wrote:and I don't usually associate cult members to be gunning hard for anyone in particular unless they have reason to think the player is a danger to the cult.
That's why WLC fits so well.

Since you're mafia, you DO have a vested interest in finding cult players. Can you enlighten me on how your statement makes sense? You took my quote out of context by the way. I had just finished summarizing WLC's 8 posts from Day 1 in that series of posts, which were nearly exclusively gunning for an ooba lynch. Who turns out not to be a player particularly dangerous to the Black Lanterns. So tell me. Since you agreed with my analysis on how cultists play, how does WLC's play suggest cult?

To me, it doesn't suggest mafia or cult or SK in any particular way; it might suggest lyncher, though I doubt that is the case. I don'tt see it as an indicator for or against.

Friend, since you (I think) initiated the WLC as cult agenda, can you summarize the arguments? I went through your posts and you never actually cited a reason beyond that you think he is cult.

The only lead I have to suggest WLC as cult is his recent vote on Mr. S, which does seem like an indicator.

Kast · Post Post #1076 (isolation #21) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:01 am

I don't know how you can call someone retarded when he singlehandedly got Toog-scum lynched.

On a fake investigation result, that he carelessly based off of Toog posting "lolwut? /anywhoconfirmandwhatnot", that could have been just as dead wrong as his dead wrong read on Toast. And that caused several townies to wrongly suspect Toast. A lucky fool is no less a fool.

CJ wrote:Hold on what is going on with this statement. First, what does martyr syndrom mean to you in context of this game? Second, the fact that you acknowledge someone could be a ballsy townie but you are willing to lynch them anyones is not a town mindset. Thirldy, from the progression of actions nikanor jokingly (?) claimed a SK result on toasty, toasty over-reacted and then claimed JK, and then nikanor argued that he was probably a scum jailkeeper. He didn't fake a result on someone he thought was a mafia jailkeeper, he faked a result on someone who after several actions transpired he now thinkis is a mafia jailkeeper.

Not sure what you're also talking about with keeping mafia alive longer and lulling the town into anything. This post is disingenious.

FOS: KAST

Martyr syndrome refers to town reluctance to take action after once failing to take such action. This is rooted in behavioral theory, often referred to as the Endowment Effect. The term was a pretty common term where I learned mafia, with the name deriving from the most common occurrence when a scum player sets up a false proposition

i.e. lynch me then you'll know I'm telling the truth

, the town fails to act on it, then later assumes it is true despite the fact that it was never proven.

I feel like this is mostly a waste of time since we're already in a martyr syndrome, but since several peopel seem to think Nik's gambit is smart play:

Spoiler: why Nik as town requires Nik to be a retard

CJ wrote:
Kast in 1051 wrote:Oh, and while I'm at it, I'm going to vote: Andy, with understanding that I'm quite willing to lynch cult if someone actually makes a good case.
How does this even make sense? If someone is acting anti-town and scummy, you'll only place a vote down on them if you can get them to configure to a view where they are cult?

Do you not read posts in context?

Kast in 1050 wrote:Anyway, I agree that it would be
best to lynch cult
. I'm not sure I buy into the theories on who the cultists are. I think WLC is more likely cult than Apok, but going through my notes I can't find anything specific to indicate why I have that thought. I may have internalized some of NPIAU's arguments.

I think
the most obvscum
right now
is Andy
,
and
that
he is
most likely
mafia
, next most likely an ADD townie, and unlikely SK or cult.

I clearly stated my preference to lynch cult over mafia, but as I didn't see any merit to the arguments against WLC and Apok as cult, I instead voted the most obvious mafia member, Andy.

Kast · Post Post #1077 (isolation #22) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 9:16 am

Toast wrote:@CJ: How is this not obvious? Yes, I thought he was town. Then he claimed a result on me that was 100% impossible to have. So yeah, now I don't even remotely trust him and think he's scum. Common, logical sense.

Toast, for Nik to be scum, Friend, muffin, and hiplop would have to be scum as well, and that doesn't seem too plausible.

Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity _{- Hanlon's razor}

Incidentally, going through Andy's posts, he seems awfully close to CJ.

BTW CJ:

CJ wrote:
Apok wrote:Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.
Flailing is not the word I use to describe people I consider confirmed town.

Ifyou read that statement

in context

, you'll notice the full statment Apok made was,

Apok wrote:
-Kast's twin:
Why in the nine hells are you voting Nikanor just because of a stupid gambit? He's pretty much confirmed town.

That wasn't addressed to you, it was addressed to me. Please try to read in context. You get distorted and completely wacky interpretations when you do that.

Kast · Tue Aug 09, 2011 10:14 am

Mr. S. wrote:Entity claim retracted.

Does this mean you

don't

have a fix to your potential game-breaking plan?

Kast · Post Post #1098 (isolation #24) » Tue Aug 09, 2011 6:02 pm

Nik: I'm sorry. I did go overboard. I got frustrated with what is very clearly senseless play, and while it doesn't validate my language, I assumed from the prolific labeling of

idiot/stupid/dumbass

during Day 1 that this was not out of place on these forums. In retrospect, that it was only Andy and Mr. S using such appellants, and I will refrain from doing so any further. While I bristle at your comment, I recognize and acknowledge that it is fitting and appropriate given my name calling and I hope you will pardon my offense.

BTW. It has no bearing on my analysis of your play and decisions. I still find your gambit unwise and more harmful/confusing than anything, and full of contradictions and careless or thoughtless behavior.

Kast · Post Post #1105 (isolation #25) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 3:57 am

CJ wrote:And my point stands, if someone else is acting anti-town and most people agree on this, (and you too possibly), but think he is mafia, you are saying you wouldn't place a vote down on them because they 'aren't cult'?

That is obviously NOT what I'm saying. I am voting for mafia now. Since you either can't follow what I posted or are intentionally distorting, I'll make it simpler.

I am currently voting mafia. I would rather vote cult than mafia right now.

...srsly...didn't think this would be difficult for you to understand since you voiced the same opinion Day 1...

CJ wrote:With a Red Lantern down I'd rather take out the probable Cult Recruiter first

To more directly answer your question, I would vote for another player if I thought he was acting anti-town. For instance, if most people agree you are scum-mafia (and I agree with that), then I would definitely place a vote down on you.

If most people (read: you and your second head) think that muffin is scum (and I disagree), then I wouldn't place a vote on him

because he isn't scum

.

------

To Friend and GW: If I understand right, you suspect WLC as cult because:
(1) He hasn't posted much
(2) He attacked the idea that WL are anti-Cult

Is that the bulk of the argument? I see some merit to the second one, but I don't see the first one. Actually, my statement is imprecise; while he hasn't posted much, his posts Day 1 gave me a feel that he was actively participating, but probably overwhelmed by sheer post volume, and that he actively took a position in gunning for ooba's lynch. I feel like a cult player wouldn't be actively gunning for a lynch unless he had information to warrant such behavior.

------

Reviewing the low post players, I actually think Blackberry is more guilty of both offenses. I suggest you read through his post history; he begins with questioning Nikanor, he points out the Uncultable vs Unrecruitable role descriptor (could indicate he is interested in cult hunting, or could indicate he's cult and wants to know what he's up against), he fence sits regarding Nik vs Toast, but continues to post to discredit Nik (though admittedly, his criticisms are spot on). He contributes little content, and takes no official stances, while at the same time adding fuel to Toast and myself who had both voiced criticism of Nik's fake gambit, while keeping himself distanced. That rings to me as a non-commital cult-like play. Also, his criticism of Mr. S's gambit.

Peregrine's *3 posts* also worries me, especially as his justification for voting WLC is that WLC voted Mr. S

the Entity

, and he didn't remove that vote after Mr. S revealed that it was a fake gambit. I think there's a good chance peregrine is cult, fake cult-hunting, and happy to push the WLC wagon.

That in mind,

Unvote, Vote: Blackberry

My updated list:

Town:
Nik
Muffin
Friend
Hiplop
Nopoint
Toast
Mr. S

Mafia:
Andy
CJ
Vezok

SK:
?

Cult:
Blackberry
Peregrinne

Kast · Post Post #1109 (isolation #26) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 4:16 am

Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but after your interaction with Andy today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.

Kast · Post Post #1112 (isolation #27) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 4:52 am

Spoiler: Player Analysis

Kast · Post Post #1150 (isolation #28) » Wed Aug 10, 2011 9:14 am

Vezok:
Every post before your realization in 362 "My ability

seems

stronger

after I realized this is double lynch

." Combined with the fact that someone else just pointed out that it is a double lynch, and that you use seems in present tense.

Peregrine:
I realize you only joined day 2, but your first post was on Monday, and between then and when I commented, you had only posted 3 times total. I also only replaced my brother during N1, so have had about the same amount of playing time as you, but had around 15 posts as of that point. Now, I realize that many people may not work on a computer all day, so may not be able to post as much. Counting day 2 only, 270~280 posts among 20 players, you were around 10 posts behind the average. I consider that to be low post count.

BB:
You had i think about 20 posts when I counted, where only one post had any substantial discussion, and only 6 posts had more than a single line of text (many of your posts seem content-free or directly off topic/joking/stating the obvious). Contrast this with 12 or so posts by WLC, where 7 (over half) of them contain real content that ties him down to specific suspicions and opinions.

BB - case in point wrote:I think:

Nikanor is either scum or fakeclaiming.

&

ToastyToad seems sincere in his jailkeeping, or gambiting scum ...

But both are being active and I want to focus on someone who is laying in the background X_X.

This amounts to saying:
A is lying or not lying. And B is not lying or is lying. And draws attention to an issue that you apparently didn't want to focus on. I think this highlights the content-less post and the fence sitting. And this is also your second longest/wordiest post.

Inhim, I'm curious, what is your reasoning for putting me on your baddie list?

Kast · Post Post #1167 (isolation #29) » Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:07 am

CJ wrote:This is terrible logic. You are basing assumptions about whether people are town or scum, (here, tans is town, and you list lists vezok as scum) based on your presumed knowledge of Andrius alignment which has not yet revealed and I strongly believe to be town. This means your chaining lynches and clearing other people for no apparent reason based on your own read which is probably incorrect.

Your argument here boils down to:

It's illogical to draw conclusions based on your own reads.

If you genuinely believe this, then I really don't know what to say. Obviously, if I'm wrong about Andy, then everything that is dependent on that assumption is no longer valid.

Inhim wrote:I don't really read your posts, I just make lists.

I don't understand...is this a joke?

Kast · Post Post #1182 (isolation #30) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 3:24 am

Summary (for inhim): I agree with Muffin. I want BB to stop fence sitting and actually commit to suspicion list/vote.

----

Muffin wrote:So far all I've seen said about WLC-as-scum is that he's not very active and ooba thought he was CR. I don't even think this is an exaggeration, either - that's all I've seen people say about WLC.

Muffin, there also suspicion based on his attack on Mr. S based on the Entity claim gambit. This was also similarly debunked (Friend's criticism there ignored that in the first post where WLC voted Mr. S, he also claimed to doubt the claim, which turned out to be a gambit anyway).

Not to mention, if Apok is red and he's lynched, red-scum are going to have to start seriously cult-hunting (including NKs) if they want any chance of winning. Ditto for whoever's doing the day kills.

++ this.

----

BB:

But both are being active and I want to focus on someone who is laying in the background X_X.

Who exactly do you suggest we focus on? As you have no vote history and have expressed no suspicions, other than Nik's fake gambit was full of holes and you think Nik and Toast are town, it feels like you're just trying to coast along under the radar.

I still think for all the posts you've made, there is almost no content beyond token questions (with no follow up) and off-topic/joke posts. Feels very active lurk-y to me.

Kast · Post Post #1183 (isolation #31) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 4:57 am

CJ - (Ludi?) wrote:I never dodged any question. We basically started and drove the wagon on ooba on circumstances that legitimately
looked like cult to us
. We were more than happy to vote for him the entirety of day one, but only shifted onto you after the first lynch because we had suspicion of you and we thought you had a higher chance of flipping cult recruiter. Once I realized your wagon was going nowhere, with only our vote on it, I made to shift back to ooba who I had thought was cult the entire first day.

Italics added for emphasis. Also this:

Tar wrote:I'll be around to lay out the case on
Toast and ooba
(oh yeah, there's a case there) in a bit.
(Only potential issue with the ooba wagon is that I'm pretty sure given his play so far
ooba is Mafia
, not Cult.)

Tar wrote:Now, why does ooba want us to focus exclusively on one scumgroup D1? Because he's scum from the other faction (Mafia) and wants to a) buy a pass for not hunting other members of his faction and b) potentially buy his faction a free pass into lategame.

Dogpile on ooba, everyone, he's not town. We can find the Cult Recruiter with the second lynch, kay?

Tar wrote:Apparently he wasn't listening to my lecture about "ooba might be scum, but we can lynch him tomorrow because
HIS BEHAVIOR SUGGESTS MAFIA
AND I WANT TO LYNCH THE CULT LEADER TODAY AND THAT CULT LEADER IS PROBABLY APOK".

You certainly drove the wagon on ooba, but it was on basis of him being mafia, not on basis of CR. Now you're claiming you initiated the ooba wagon on basis of hunting CR from the get-go, and still dodging the fact that you attempted to hammer when ooba had clearly requested the chance to make a defense before hammering him. Especially considering you attempted to hammer him (in posts 677 & 678) immediately after inHim posted this.

Kast · Post Post #1185 (isolation #32) » Fri Aug 12, 2011 6:59 am

I don't see apok as cult, but I'm pretty convinced WLC is not scum, and I largely think Muffin and Mr. S have been well reasoned so far, so

unvote, vote: apok

FOS:

Andrius, BB, CJ

Kast · Post Post #1301 (isolation #33) » Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:15 pm

Tans: from the discussion, great plan except you're teaming up with Andy, who is scum. I guess he DOES have a vested interest in blocking cult so whatevs. Since I apparently got on the mason block's baddie list (excluding muffin?) for not loving Nik's crazy or because inhim didn't want to read my posts...

My list (for all the good it will do) was already conveniently posted, but most likely scums are:

BB (cult)
Andy (mafia)
CJ (mafia)

unvote

BB, I don't really see you as doing anything pro town or pro mafia. I don't see you as having done anything really all game. That feels like cult to me. You

still

haven't voted or stated any suspicions or scum hunted in any way.

Kast · Post Post #1302 (isolation #34) » Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:16 pm

ebwop:crazy fakeclaim gambits*

Kast · Post Post #1306 (isolation #35) » Mon Aug 15, 2011 3:14 am

CJ: vezok is not in my top 3 scum picks. His posts do read more as mafia to me than as cult or town, though his dearth of posts recently make it hard for me to confirm or reject my initial reads (as it was v/la, I don't necessarily see this as a tell either way).

Kast · Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:07 am

Tans: Once you decide on your three targets, if there are any probMafia among them, I'd like to request that you have Andy target the player most likely to be cult rather than a probMafia.

Vezok: Did you think oversoul was cult or mafia when you decided to target him?

Kast · Mon Aug 15, 2011 10:14 am

Toast wrote:Why is Oversoul a bad target again? OH WAIT HE'S NOT

I agree with Toast here. Hiplop's criticism doesn't make sense. Oversoul is not confirmed town, and certainly wasn't as of end of D1. There wouldn't be anything inherently wrong with delaying him. Nik has it right; Vezok's pick is suspect mainly because he never mentioned or hinted at being suspicious of oversoul.

Kast · Post Post #1323 (isolation #38) » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:46 pm

I think the idea is that, if you publicly pick 3 players to block, and mafia know who the 3 are, unless you manage to pick all the mafia players, then they will choose a non-blocked mafioso to make the kill. To compound that, if at least one of {Andy, Toast} is mafia, then he can pretend to block his target, but actually let the target take actions with town none the wiser, and maybe even make the kill himself.

Kast · Post Post #1324 (isolation #39) » Mon Aug 15, 2011 4:50 pm

As I trust Tans and Toast, I would suggest rather than publicly coordinating who exactly you are targeting, instead you assign Andy's target, and maybe Toast's target, but not to announce your target. Furthermore, if we manage to lynch CR, then consider assigning Andy and Toast secondary targets to block based on likelihood of mafia, rather than likelihood of cult.

Kast · Post Post #1331 (isolation #40) » Tue Aug 16, 2011 7:26 am

I'm on board with a Peregrine as cult lynch.

Kast · Post Post #1389 (isolation #41) » Thu Aug 18, 2011 8:03 am

Muffin is right again. Unless Andy has two votes, GW still has a chance to claim. Anyone hammering before the claim and before tans confirms who Toast and Andy should target (or at least confirms the "list") is doing a huge disservice to the town.

Also, to Andy's point, a 3-man list without any explicit coordination in targeting and still expecting Toast, Andy, and Tans to

not

double target is somewhat implausible.

Was proposed already, but Tans should def not nail down his target to just WLC or just any one player; he should pick from a list of players that he can think for himself and determine, while at the same time assigning Toast/Andy to pick from a public, non-overlapping list of players (can be list of 1), guaranteeing that there is no overlap as only Tans would have to pick carefully, while Andy and Toast would be picking from mutually exclusive lists. This completely avoids all the disadvantages of a "you target A, you target B" plan, while guaranteeing no overlap, and still doesn't reveal to scum who exactly is targeted. It also locks in Andy and Toast against future potential lies as scum about their night actions.

Kast · Post Post #1508 (isolation #42) » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:45 pm

vote: bb

Kast · Post Post #1522 (isolation #43) » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:46 am

If he were town who jk'd me because he thought I was a day cop, he would have assumed that I got my 'result' on him during the day, not at night.

This is BAD logic. Correction: If he were town who jk'd me because he thought I was a day cop, he would have KNOW I was lying when I claimed he wasn't town. Thus he would have KNOWN I was a liar, and should (and did) call me out on it.

Nik you are incorrectly assuming he called you a liar

because of an impossible night action

when in fact he called you a liar

because of an impossible claimed result on a claimed day cop action

. Please try to use logic logically.

BB: You're flailing. I also don't like how you basically went what...10 days of posting a reasonable post count, but not actually saying anything, while I and others continued to call you out on it, then when you finally do post stuff, it's scummy as all heck, and phrased in a way that it sounds like another fake claim gambit (and you

know

how I feel about those).

Nik: I agree town doesn't likely have 3 role blocks. Rather than targeting Toast, you should be looking at Andy, who is better than 99% likely to be mafia, as the non town RB. Also, Tans claimed to have copied Andy's power as a temporary copy, so that's one less block in town hands than your game balance comment would imply.

Kast · Post Post #1523 (isolation #44) » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:49 am

Toast in 943 In Context wrote:THIS IS BULLSHIT FOR MULTIPLE REASONS.
NIKANOR IS COPYING THE SCUM-GAMBIT FATE PULLED IN FIRE EMBLEM MAFIA

I'm Star Sapphire, JAILKEEPER.
I FUCKING JAILKEPT Nikanor last night
That means
1) He couldn't have gotten a result on me
2) I'm too hot to not be in this game
3) Nikanor may have been the target of a kill, but he also had bulletproof. CALLING EVIL CULT OF FAKE MASONS

So don't you guys dare even think this isn't a one on one. Lynch nikanor or lynch me.
Vote:Nikanor

Here's where you are misreading Nik:

1) He couldn't have gotten a result on me

at night because he was blocked

Here is what he's actually saying:

1) He couldn't have gotten a result on me

during the day because I am town so I know he's lying

You see how your incorrect assumption is leading

you

to believe there is a logical contradiction? That's why you shouldn't make unfounded assumptions.

Kast · Post Post #1524 (isolation #45) » Fri Aug 19, 2011 3:50 am

ToastyToast wrote:Even I agree with this, but Andrius is the odd one out.

QFT. Sorry for the multi posts.

Kast · Post Post #1530 (isolation #46) » Fri Aug 19, 2011 6:51 am

Nik, you are correct. He

is

logically inconsistent there.

Kast · Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:41 am

BB: You played for 8+ days of posting without reading through the game, and the whole time you ignored or flamed people that called out out for fence sitting and being non-committal. You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to start posting more and being active.

You tried to setup multiple haphazard cult accusations, including against claimed WL's that are known to be non CR, and at most one of whom might be a recruit (who wouldn't be worth targeting). So yes, I think you are very likely to be cult. You've done nothing to change that.

BTW, the uncultable versus unrecruitable thing happened day 2, after you joined and started posting, so claiming you were unaware of it until now is really stretching plausibility.

Oversoul wrote:Kast, I pmed the mod about the difference between Uncultable and Unrecruitable and they said the difference was the wording.

They wouldn't elaborate on that so I am going to say that the words are interchanageable.

Andy: Dana didn't publishly state that. Oversoul said he PMed the mod and was confirmed they are essentially the same thing.

Kast · Fri Aug 19, 2011 10:52 am

You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to start posting more and being active.

Grammar fail me now!

You only started posting content after multiple players stated that it is a cult characteristic to sit back and actively lurk/keep their head down. Obviously, after your behavior was called out sufficiently, you decided to start posting more and being more active so as not to give off those cult scumtells.

Kast · Post Post #1592 (isolation #49) » Mon Aug 22, 2011 3:36 am

Not seeing GW as cult recruiter, but if that's the only option then I agree he should be claiming now.

Kast · Post Post #1632 (isolation #50) » Mon Aug 22, 2011 4:38 pm

Oversoul wrote:Kast is a Jailkeeper which isn't only a roleblocker

Is this a typo oversoul? I did not claim this. Did you mean to type Toast?

I think the main reason GW wasn't lynched earlier is (as muff already pointed out) that he's likely mafia, not CR. Don't think this really matters at this point though...Was hoping for more coordination, but Andy, since you're probably mafia blocker, I strongly suggest you let me follow BB tonight. I'm fairly sure he's CR. It's still in your best interest even if you are mafia.

Also, guess: R

Kast · Post Post #1731 (isolation #51) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 1:27 pm

This is the real Kast back from V/LA, though won't be around over the weekend. I'm sort of caught up and my brother filled me in on what's been going on. I think he is still interested in reading along and posting.

Mr.S wrote:
@tanstalas
: How come you no say who you jailkept last Night?

I think I might know why that is. Last night we got a mod PM essentially stating that our powers were taken away. Your claim seems to imply you can either use a stolen power OR steal another power. So I'd like to amend the question to:

@tanstalas:

WTF did you steal our powers instead of blocking your suspected CR?

@BB-

Can't help you; I essentially got blocked when my powers were taken.

Kast · Post Post #1740 (isolation #52) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 1:47 pm

Oh damn, misread the PM. Actually I think my powers were stolen permanently.

Kast · Post Post #1750 (isolation #53) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:14 pm

@Tans-

Wondering if this is a mod error and only one of us were supposed to get this,

Doubt it's an error on my side, I asked a few questions about the PM already and got responses (hence why I realized it was permanent). You should check if it was an error on your side.

both of us losing our powers in the same night seems very anti-town

Firstly, if there is a scum ability to permanently erase a player's power each night, then we should DEFINITELY start with lots of town PRs and likely have some redundancy built in.
Secondly, two possibilities immediately come to mind if this is a result of a night power:
-We have a Doubler in this game who Doubled scum (if there *is* a town Doubler, then this possibility becomes extremely likely)
-Vezokpiraka claimed a delay power, so if Oversoul is the power-stealer/eraser he may have targeted either you or me on N1 and it got delayed until N2.

@BB-
Yes, except there was some flavor that implied it was temporary. Mod clarification stated that the flavor was just flavor.

I have a town read on Tans, so I'm guessing he's legit. His reaction actually makes more sense with what he's claiming now (and fits with my own annoyance at going from PR -> VT).

Kast · Post Post #1755 (isolation #54) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:40 pm

Also, disagree with this:

Motivator will come from the Blue Corps.
Like last time.

It's entirely possible that mods changed things up and made Kilowog a Doubler AND that he doubled a scum member last night. (Incidentally, this would also mean the mods made a *good* change from the previous game in which town abilities only worked on town and resulted in town having something like 7 or 8 effective cops).

-If anyone else got a PM that they lost all their powers, now might be a good time to share it. There's also a possibility that a DEAD player might have had their powers erased and didn't have a chance to claim (also if it's a mafia ability, there's a chance it hit a Black Lantern who might not want to claim).

Kast · Post Post #1756 (isolation #55) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 2:41 pm

Kast 2.0 here. Confirm what Kast said before. Agree with the

TOWN

read on Tans. Kast didn't post this but I told him I still suspect BB; he knew we were going to follow him.

Also, EITHER Oversoul can't be delayed power stealer, OR Toast must be his scum buddy. More likely, we have a doubler (drill sergeant?) and it was doubled...I think seeing who Peregrinne trusted is the best lead for *mafia*, but I'm much more inclined to go after CR.

will post list in a second.

Kast · Post Post #1757 (isolation #56) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:17 pm

- Kast

tracked N1

- Andrius

was power stolen N1
- Candle Jack
- WeyounsLastClone
- Blackberry

- hiplop

WL
- Mr. Subliminal

- ToastyToast

JK'ed Nik N1

- vezokpiraka

* Delayed OS N1

- tanstalas

Stole Andy N1

- Nikanor

WL

- zMuffinMan

WL
- inHimshalibe

- Oversoul

* was delayed N1

All players in strike objectively cannot be CR since we know they took other actions night 1, or we know they were blocked, or we know they started as WLs.

Since we KNOW who was the N1 recruit, we can objectively eliminate all confirmed pairings (cult would have to coordinate for the pairings to be faked).

This leaves the only

possible

OS (ordered based on my opinion of likelihood):

- Blackberry
- WeyounsLastClone

- Mr. Subliminal
- Candle Jack

- inHimshalibe

Of the 5, I'm most inclined to suspect BB as he knew he was going to be tracked, or WLC who knew he was going to be blocked. inhim is least likely CR due to miller claim.

Also, BB, if this isn't just a ploy where you are intentionally abusing logic and faking being too lazy to read, then I will be very surprised. And also very disappointed in human intellect.

Tans claimed he power stole/copied RB from Andy. That means he isn't conflicted with Toast.

*Note that BB's logic for excluding vezok from cult is wrong. Vezok is not cult because OS confirmed the delay, and they can't both be cult. Not because OS is mafia, but because objectively, they cannot be coordinating as cult since we know nopoint was cult.

*His argument actually works to prove OS is not cult recruiter since OS was delayed, and even if vezok is scum, he can't also cult coordinating with OS.

Agree with Mr. S's analysis on Day kill: we know it happened D2. Also, did anyone else notice that nopoint's 1 shot BP was striken out? I'm betting he was the Day 1 indigo target.

Kast · Post Post #1759 (isolation #57) » Fri Aug 26, 2011 3:35 pm

Also, BB, why don't you read the nopoint *incontext*. WLC vote never went above 5 votes, never anywhere near actual lynch despite a lot of empty talk. Nopoint could have easily been distancing, as he never expressed any suspicion of WLC day 1.

That said, I'd be happy with lynching BB or WLC; if Mr. S is CR then he was blocked last night and Andy (scum or otherwise) is likely to continue blocking him.

-Kast 2.0

Kast · Post Post #1796 (isolation #58) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:37 pm

Mr. S, I tracked Tans night 1 and saw he targeted Andy. I soft claimed this fairly early Day 2. I also hid a hard breadcrumb to this effect in my first post of the game (this is Kast 2, my first post was my first post of D2). I also stupidly put my character name in the same post so I didn't want to point that out unless we were doing a name claim as well. I'll point it out if necessary.

Kast · Post Post #1797 (isolation #59) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:44 pm

BB, you're right; you are unlikely to be both CR

AND

also perma-block/stealer. This was NOT a requirement for being suspicious of you. there are tells indicating you are scum, some are mafia tells, and some are CR tells, but there are NO townie tells. Not sure why you bring that up as an objection when it is immaterial.

BTW, if you always play like XYZ style as town, and you are aware of this, then I don't see what is to stop you from playing in XYZ style as scum and trying to use that as meta proof that you are town. It could be valid if it was behavior you were UN-aware of, but if you're smart enough to recognize your play style, then I imagine you're smart enough to adapt. Though you are free to prove me wrong there...

Toast, yes I'm trying to be objective so I included myself. I assumed it was clear Day 2 why I trusted tans so strongly combining my soft bread crumbs and suspicion of Andy. As above post, I can further back up my claim with a hard breadcrumb as needed.

Kast · Post Post #1798 (isolation #60) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 1:51 pm

Nik wrote:The only thing we learned from yesterday is that WLC is probnotcult.

Where did this come from?

Kast · Post Post #1804 (isolation #61) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 3:25 pm

I want a claim from WLC and BB.

Fine with voting either, with preference for BB. For now though,

vote: WLC

Magua, soft claim (I think this was my 3rd post of the game)

Kast wrote:RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this. I have susp[icions on both, and
may have soemthign useful to contribute
...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?

This later was aimed at tans when he asked why I was no longer listing him as suspicious:

Kast wrote:Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but
after your interaction with Andy
today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.

I agree you are blind

. We lost our ability last night. This has been discussed extensively.

If you need something more than the above, let me know.

Spoiler: BB, you are wrong

Kast · Post Post #1805 (isolation #62) » Sat Aug 27, 2011 3:26 pm

huh weird. I tried to sign my post but it posted in the middle of the quote. That was me, Kast 2, if it wasn't obvious.

Kast · Sun Aug 28, 2011 12:33 am

@vezok: WTF did you delay a claimed tracker? Not that it matters due to

losing our ability.

@Muffin: I agree with Nik; CJ is most likely mafia.

@Nik: Why do you think there there was more than 1 cult day 1?

BB wrote:Has anyone even bothered to read my town game and mafia-sided game to see how I act when I'm anti-town vs when I'm town?

Why the hell would I want to spend hours reading through an (ended?) game where you are town when you refuse to spend the time to read through this that you are currently playing in?

Also, you already pointed out how you don't care about games when you're scum so you half ass your way through them. That's a whole new level of willful disrespect to the mods and to the other players, but even ignoring that, if we take you at face value that you haven't read through the game, then using your claimed meta, I can conclude that are (1) trying your best as scum to act like what YOU think is your town meta (2) failing to be consistent since you are still half ass-ing your way through this game by not caring enough to read through.

Also, I asked you to to disprove my assumption that you are smart enough to play mafia competently. Demonstrating that you sucked in past games doesn't prove you are unable to learn from your mistakes. (Incidentally I find it amusing to think that you're actively arguing about your own inability while I'm defending the opposite by taking the position that no one can prove themselves town by citing that they'd be incompetent as scum).

Kast · Sun Aug 28, 2011 12:35 am

@WLC: That is the correct post. I hid the breadcrumb. I doubt you'll be able to find it if I don't point it out, but once I do it'll be overly obvious, unambiguous, and uncontroversial. I realize it isn't the breadcrumbing convention on this site, but cleared with Kast original and mod that it's a legit style.

Kast2

Kast · Sun Aug 28, 2011 12:47 am

WLC wrote:Anyway, I have a feeling that everyone who was targetted tonight has lost their powers, as at the start of the day I got a pm with the same information tans had.

This doesn't make sense. Please clarify. Are you referring to N2? If so, are you claiming that you temporarily lost your ability, or that you perma lost your ability? We have numerous night target claims, but only 3 claims of vanilla'd.

N2 Claims
- Kast - Perma Vanilla'd, also delayed by Vezok
- Andrius - Targetted Mr. S
- Candle Jack - No night (or any) claims
- WeyounsLastClone - Perma Vanilla'd or Temp Power Stolen?
- Blackberry - Was targetted or bus driven in a "provable" manner
- hiplop - No night claims
- Mr. Subliminal - (indirect) was double blocked
- ToastyToast - Blocked oversoul
- vezokpiraka - Delayed Kast
- tanstalas - Perma Vanilla'd
- Nikanor - No night claims
- zMuffinMan - Blocked Mr. S
- inHimshalibe - No night claims
- Oversoul - Was blocked by Toast, his delayed action would presumably also be blocked

Kast · Post Post #1882 (isolation #66) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:11 pm

muffin wrote:Either Kast is lying, or people who lost their powers performed no actions that night, which means tans did not end up targeting you (or he's lying about having lost his powers), so you couldn't have lost your powers from someone targeting you, and it doesn't explain why others who were targeted by someone didn't get this mysterious PM that you supposedly got.

Technically incorrect; investigative roles resolve last in NAR. Blocks and steals happen first. I don't know if Tans' ability would have gone through or not; however, if it did, I STORNGLY doubt that WLC would have received a PM that it was from Tans' steal ability since Andy expressed surprise D2 to learn he was targetted by Tans (surprise but belief; he clearly hadn't known apriori that he was stolen). If WLC's claiming perma vanilla, then he may have received the same PM.

Mr.S wrote:You didn't claim tracker D2. So WTF is this coming from?

Literally incorrect. See post 1632. You should know. I was playing your hangman game in the same post, and you acknowledged my guess before end of the night.

Mr.S wrote:In theory, then, if Kast is really a tracker and really tracked Blackberry, he should get his report N3 then (not getting it N2 because he was delayed by vezokpiraka).

This may make sense. I'm not clear on the ordering of a delayer, if that would occur similar to a bus driver, thus before a block, or same a a redirector, thus after a block. Don't think it will come in N3 from a flavor point of view, but depending on the strict order of operations, that might be possible. We did NOT receive a result last night, but if we receive one N3, we'll let you know.

CJ: I certainly never claimed lantern color, and I don't believe Kast ever did; he did claim colored lantern I believe. I'm not sure why you want to know my lantern color considering you're likely scum, but if you can explain clearly why it makes sense for me to answer then I'll consider it.

Also, in order for WLC to be mafia RB, there would need to be yet anouther (6 now) claimed RB abilities. I'm not sure where you're going with that.

Kast · Post Post #1884 (isolation #67) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:25 pm

Mr.S in 1874 wrote:The only thing we'd still like to hear is if Oversoul's N1 action went through.

Oversoul in 1767 wrote:Remove Toasty from that list and add yourself and I think we have a pretty good list as I was NOT RECRUITED LAST NIGHT AND I DIDN'T RECEIVE ANY INFORMATION ABOUT MY DELAYED ABILITY.

He answered before you asked. Keep up

Also Toast claimed to have JK'ed him N2, so if it was going to resolve it should be blocked no?

Thanks for bringing this up though. OS, you claimed if it HAD resolved N1, you would be able to incriminate or clear CJ as CR. Is this by process of elimination?

Kast · Post Post #1885 (isolation #68) » Sun Aug 28, 2011 5:28 pm

That's probably unclear. To rephrase; are you claiming that you would have known objectively if CJ recruited nopoint (essentially tracker on CJ), or are yo uclaiming to be able to deduce this indirectly from your ability results?

Kast · Post Post #1889 (isolation #69) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 4:21 am

Did you miss all of D3?

Tans and Kast claimed they were vanilla'd at night.

Andy and Muffing both claimed block on Mr. S.

Vezok calimed delay on Kast.

Toast claimed JK on Oversoul.

Oversoul claimed no delayed results.

Tans claimed block on WLC.

BB argued why, by meta, he must be town. Mr. S, Kast, and others thoroughly destroyed the illogical nature of that fallacious argument.

BB made his first vote ev4r.

Mr. S's multi asks a lot of questions, half of which were answered D2 or D3.

WLC claimed anti-cult doctor, and claimed he was also either power stolen or vanilla'd (or both) last night.

CJ claimed he used to be regular doctor, but lost that power and now has a new power.

These events are probably out of order, as I don't feel like digging through 5-6 pages of posts to confirm that, but I believe highlight the majority of D3 happenings.

Kast · Post Post #1956 (isolation #70) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:32 pm

BB: Since you don't answer town questions, why should I answer your scum questions? I already stated that I did submit an action at the start of N2, and that I did not receive a result. I presume that is because of the power theft. I also acknowledged that it may have been delayed by Vezok, if so I would receive a result N3 presumably and would reveal it tomorrow if it was relevant. I'm not interested in convincing you I'm town; we both know you're scum, so there's no point. I just don't know if you're mafia or black.

WLC: You are at L-2. Is there anything you want to add to what you've already claimed?

Kast · Post Post #1959 (isolation #71) » Mon Aug 29, 2011 5:56 pm

Back-up CR (or multiple starting cult) was something Nik posted as proof that the RB's are not cleared. Mr. S and Ooba stated it might be credible day 1, though the majority of speculation was that CR would be more likely BP from D1 speculations.

Oversoul, if you haven't realized it, Nik likes to fake claim. Also, Nik, you were right about toog, but you claimed either GW or WLC is CR, against the objection that GW is likely mafia. That puts you at 1 for 3 on strong pushes (wrong on ooba).

Considering OS claimed no result, he either has to be mafia with toast or he was honestly blocked by toast.

Mr. S, when you ask a question 5+ times and someone dodges it just as many times, shouting isn't going to convince them otherwise

^ Same applies to you BB: if you're scum and I do state who I targeted, I'm not going to give you that info without a very good reason for it. I can see a few easy ways for you to make it useless if I do get a delayed result, particularly if I targeted correctly and you are worried about the result.

Muffin: BB's statement is consistent with his play all game; it implies he either hasn't paid any attn to D1, D2, or D3, or requires that he's intentionally playing the fool and drawing more fallacious conclusions based on shaky or flat out wrong assumptions.

Kast · Post Post #1972 (isolation #72) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:11 am

BB:

I hope your "clever assumption" is better than all the other "clever" assumptions you've made all game.

NVM it's just as bad as all the others you've made.

Here's one bullet to your theory: you are mafia and can't recruit.

And now...

bb wrote:Toasty claimed to have JAILKEPT oversoul last night (first off, why jail-keep someone that only had a 1-shot ability?).

One: JK is a doctor AND a RB.
In general, the best target of a JK would be a townie day cop or a one shot townie that already used their power. Two: you answered this objection yourself in your next sentence. Cognitive dissonance much? You're worse than all the hydras in this game put together. If Toast suspected OS as scum then of course it makes sense to block his delayed action claim.

bb wrote:* However, Oversoul's action did go through, his 1-shot ability somehow involved giving CANDLE JACK A RING.

OS claimed his ability would confirm whether CJ was CR or not CR. This means it is either a role cop ability, a tracker ability, or some kind of power steal, and I strongly doubt that Oversoul could steal a cult recruiter's recruiting ability. Giving CJ a ring would NOT condemn OR clear him as CR, so this is a complete fail assumption.

So, to summarize, your argument is this:

Toast wouldn't have JK'ed OS because you claim it wouldn't make sense (despite the fact that it would make sense).
Ergo, OS must have an ability that doesn't match his claims.
Since OS won't claim the ability that doesn't match his claims, he must be lying and thus must be cult.

Logic Fail. A for effort, though.

Also, Vezok NEVER claimed green. He claimed Justice League Ice, and also claimed he thought he would become a WL.

Hiplop: We know that CR must have targeted nopoint N1. We know that either Vezok delayed OS, or Vezok and OS must be scum team. If Vezok is CR, he couldn't have recruited both nopoint and OS, thus Vezok cannot be CR.

Kast · Post Post #1978 (isolation #73) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:31 am

OS wrote:Also, why we lynch WLC, then one of CJ or Kast Blackberry and then roleblock the last two if none of them flip the recruiter. everyone is happy.

I'm fine with this plan. I doubt we'll have to worry about getting past the first step.

Mr. S wrote:We were thinking that Oversoul was the ring-giver as well, which is why we wanted him to claim if he knew that his power from D1 had gone through or not (1861, 1874, 1886).

How would giving a power confirm CJ as CR or not CR? OS claimed this D2, before he could have been recruited. OS as power changer/switcher makes no sense.

Kast · Post Post #1979 (isolation #74) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 3:45 am

The only thing that I am uncertain of with WLC is that he didn't seem to realize he had been blocked by tans. I don't know if tans's RB would have gone through or would have itself been blocked by the power loss, and I am assuming a blocked RB-er would not know his RB was blocked based on Andy/Tans D2 interactions.

Kast · Post Post #1984 (isolation #75) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 8:16 am

This is real Kast.

Some thoughts:
On BB:
I don't completely agree with Kast2's assessment of BB, and I think some things he's posted definitely show more annoyance/frustration with some of BB's more ridiculous posts; but they aren't necessarily scumtells. I don't think BB is the best lynch for now (though if he is SK, then he becomes a priority lynch). BB strikes me as independent 3rd party. This is mostly a result of his extreme over defensiveness combined with his tendency to start calling people scum based on how much they're pressuring him (when I was posting at the start of this day without pressuring him, Kast suddenly fell into BB's town side, then when my brother started attacking him, he started throwing out empty scum accusations). Some of BB's paranoia looks genuine, but it doesn't look like it's from a town perspective. I'd guess some kind of survivor independent (potentially a SK).

Also, it should have been clear but N2 we submitted a Track on BB. However we did not get any results and when asking the mods we were referred to the NAR with the implication that whatever it was that took our power ALSO prevented us from investigating. It is

possible

but

unlikely

that vezok's delay ability will played any part in it, though if results on BB are delivered on N3, they will be presented.

Oversoul/CJ-
Oversoul's N1 ability + Vezok's Claimed N1 delay being responsible for CJ's claimed role change is plausible (despite what my brother said). It seems unlikely that any such change would confirm or deny CJ as cult recruiter.

Another possibility that I could easily see from CJ/Tar is that his new ring/new role claim is a Black Recruit gambit.

WLC Lynch:

WLC wrote:Seriously, get your act together guys. Basing it on the naming thing is crazy. Cop and Doc in regular situation, if you want to specify them further, I think the way it currently looks like is logical. Cult Cop is about finding cult. The doc in this case, prevents culting, so it's Anti-Cult Doctor.

No, logically, BB is correct and it should simply be cult (or recruit) doc. However, this is a minor point and while it's a potential fake-claim slip, it's not the reason for lynching you.

The reason for lynching you is here:

The pm was at the same time as start of day post. So I believe everything during the night should still have processed as normal, and that's why I want to know what tans did tonight.
PM basically says my powers are gone. As it doesn't specify anything regarding the loss being temporarily, I assume it's permanent and not just stolen what tans was going to do in the night.

WLC clearly indicated that he read my post about losing my powers and not getting any results last night AND he obviously read Tans' answers to my post/questions. Tans also VERY CLEARLY explained out that he could STEAL a power on one night, then USE that power on the NEXT night, then STEAL another power on the FOLLOWING night. I referenced and linked to this and specifically asked Tans about it at the start of this day. There's no way WLC read that exchange and then genuinely thinks Tans might have stolen WLC's powers and can confirm him.

WLC is playing dumb here after demonstrating that he knows better. He's either responsible for erasing Tans and my power OR he's trying to take advantage of it and get pseudo cleared. I'm leaning more towards the latter given his botched cult doc claim (which would also implicate him as probable CR). Also, I suspect that the double-power loss was a result of town motivating a scum player, and I doubt any townies would have motivated WLC.

Additionally, NPIAU's bussing on WLC is a pretty terrible reason to dismiss him as potential CR. There was no point in D2 where WLC was anywhere near being lynched, so there was really no danger to him. As far as NPIAU going after WLC very hard; that's kinda the point of bussing and pretty much the only way to do it effectively.

Kast · Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:21 am

(1) Kast is probably right, I probably am somewhat frustrated at BB's crazy ideas and posts. Disagree with Kast: If BB is SK, then he is not a priority lynch; instead we make him kill a town selected target, and if he doesn't listen, then we lynch.

(2) Aquaman is black in Darkest Night

NOT

in Brightest Day. If anything he'd be a Black Miller. He certainly wouldn't be CR. WLC's claim makes no sense.

Muffin, Toast, Vezok, Inhim please commence with the voting.

BB: I don't think you understand what a delayer does; it delays your action, not your result. Meaning if you have an investigative role, the investigation action doesn't happen until the next night. If you are blocked the next night, then it never goes through. Similarly, if you delay a kill, the doctor has to protect on the second night, not the first. Similarly, if you delay doctor, it will prevent a kill that was made on the next night, not the current night.

="OS"]I NEED A FUCKING BREATHER. SORRY FOR THE CAPS. I AM SUPER PISSED OFF AT BLACKBERRY RIGHT NOW.

<3

Mr. S wrote:he was blocked N2 by tanstalas.

Wow. I'd been convinced all along that Mr. S was a rational and reasonable townie until the recent 180 degree and piggy backing on all of BB's whacko ideas. I have some doubts that tans RB really did go through based on the vanilla PM, but mod still has not clarified when I asked for more details. This feels like distancing.

If

When WLC flips CR, I'm strongly incluned to agree with Oversoul.

pedit: too many posts!

BB wrote:nopoint flipped Cult-Recruited after Night 2. Kills before Cult (unless the siuicide happens afterwards, which I doubt...
has anyone asked the mod about this?.
.. on the front page nopoint's death is NOT last so I think it happens right away).

Yes. This was also stated in thread by others I believe. Mod keeps refusing to answer questionsabout ordering of abilities n ad instead points at NAR. Mod doesn't seem to answer how unlisted abilities would be sorted.

Mr.S wrote:Our daykill only works on town.

Are you pulling a Nik-claim? I thought I liked your play style...

Kast · Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:32 am

Oh, and it was Kast2 posting if it wasn't already obvious (still is Kast2 posting).

Oversoul, are you claiming you literally received a PM that you said your action did not succeed? That is not how I read your post but I'd rather you be explicit rather than making any assumptions.

Mr. S: I don't know why you are pushing so hard for a CJ lynch if you agree WLC is scum. I don't see WLC as anything but CR or SK. Do you think he is mafia? If so, how do you work that one out? Your post felt very knee-jerk-y. I don't think you were buddying but rather it felt liek you were trying ot throw some distance after having pushed hard for a different lynch target that literally cannot be CR.

Kast · Tue Aug 30, 2011 10:39 am

Oversoul: Obv our daykiller shot someone with protection. Nik and Mr. S are both fake claiming, in a way that is apparently supposed to be so obviously false that they don't bother with the lol or jk or to acknowledge that it's fake. And then Mr. S. decided to continue to beat a dead horse and string you along probably cuz he can get a rise out of it. since it's almost certain we have a night vig, based on the night kill targets, it is probably also the case that the day killer is scum.

pedit: That makes no sense. If the action is delayed then the whole action should be delayed. That would only make sense if the delay only worked on investigative roles and only delayed the investigation results. That's like saying a delayed kill requires a doctor to protect the target on night 1 rather than night 2.

Kast · Tue Aug 30, 2011 11:18 am

This is Kast.

@BB/OS-
We don't know how Vezok's delay works. If either of you genuinely cares to figure things out, you should start by asking Vezok (though to be fair, he's not a player generally capable of communcating subtleties of how exactly his role works or how it interacts with other roles). It's entirely possible that the delaying of the ability happens before standard roleblocking and thus leaves the action vulnerable to standard roleblocking on the subsequent night.

OS wrote:I haven't seen any indication from my target that my ability succeeded or failed

This was a valid point from BB though. It does not appear to refer to an investigative ability; but rather some ability that does something to the target. Regardless, OS isn't the cult recruiter, and it's quite likely that WLC

IS

.

@WLC-

Well, fine you know better than the mod and the one who got the mod pm then.

Or you just suck at fake claiming.

Tans in 1256 wrote:I have it
just for tonight
, then
next night
I can target someone else and take their power.

What part of NEXT NIGHT confused you or was unclear?

Kast understanding EXACTLY what Tans claimed wrote:WTF did you steal our powers
instead of
blocking your suspected CR?

Try reading the post you quoted. It's explicitly stated as a ONE-OR-ANOTHER.

Instead of

means NOT BOTH.

but otherwise I wouldn't have been such an ass about it and go through the back and forth we did.

You went through a tiny "back and forth" that SCREAMS "I'M PLAYING THE CONFUSED TOWN CARD".

You, together with tans, have done an admirable job in making BB look good.

WTF is this supposed to refer to?!? Are you playing the same game? Did you give up since you're already caught?

And LoL at the jump to OS. The OMGUS is strong with this one.

@Kast2-

If BB is SK, then he is not a priority lynch; instead we make him kill a town selected target, and if he doesn't listen, then we lynch.

[rant]Town directing SK shots is an absolutely terrible, horrible, no-good, scummy, excessively anti-town strategy that mafia always jumps for and gullible town like jumping aboard because they don't like winning games.[/rant] Lynch SK, remove a kill add multiple extra days of discussion and lynches, meanwhile avoid having town PRs get picked off and avoid endgame kingmaker situations where town is screwed no matter who we lynch. SKs don't follow the town directives, and they don't shoot for mafia; they shoot to ensure that town needs to lynch mafia and "needs" to keep them alive to deal with other scum.

@BB-
Your toast wagon isn't convincing anyone. Let's lynch WLC, you can resume the pointless throwaway vote when we finish.

@InHim/Hiplop-
More votes. Less lurking.

@Mr.S-
To be clear, your objections to WLC are:
1> You don't think NPIAU would bus his Cult Recruiter
2> You think mafia would have pushed for a WLC lynch instead of bussing obv scum Apok or GW
Mostly I'm just getting the feeling that you don't accept the concept of bussing as plausible. It happens. All the time.

Kast · Post Post #2055 (isolation #80) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 4:55 pm

This is Kast2:

@Kast: I disagree about SK direction. I think we always disagreed on that point, so not gonna bother with it unless it becomes a real issue.

To add to Muffin's point on OS's tracker/clear claim, it also wouldn't clear CJ if

CJ

was blocked N1. That would get the same result as if CJ never targeted anyone. I don't think that indicates a fake claim; I think that more likely indicates OS didn't think through his role or implications of his (claimed) ability.

BB: You claimed that if I tracked you N2, I could clear you as not CR. Since we don't know who was recruited N2, the only way I could clear you is if you didn't target anyone. However, it sounds like you are now claiming to be a watcher, or some other informational role. You're more inconsistent than you are claiming OS to be.

The only thing I don't like about WLC's claim is the Aquaman reference, which actually leans me toward SK/independent. The rest is based on his play and some PoE.

WLC in 1346 wrote:Is one of you Aquaman? Are you JLA that turned White Lantern?

WLC sounds like he's looking for aquaman and that he

thinks

Aquaman is WL

not

cult.

WLC in 1975 wrote:From the description of my role, it felt to me like Aquaman would be CR.

Now, he

thinks

Aquaman is CR.

WLC in 2005 wrote:looking for Aquaman, as my role pm mentions him

This is highly suspect to me, and almost seems like WLC is some independent trying to find/kill Aquaman more than anything else.

Kast · Post Post #2056 (isolation #81) » Tue Aug 30, 2011 5:29 pm

OS: Did you ever confirm whether your the no result statements were paraphrasing a mod pm or rather than a statement that there was no result? Also, did you ask Mod if you still have your one shot ability? I strongly doubt mod would PM you N1 if you were delayed or PM you N2 if you were blocked.

Kast · Post Post #2059 (isolation #82) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 8:25 am

This is real Kast.

Three thoughts:
1> Reviewed the Oversoul potential slip thing and context is key.
-Reading OS in iso and reading the posts surrounding it shows he's being consistent (doesn't necessarily mean he's telling the truth, but it's NOT a slip). OS is right that in context, the line he posted that looks odd is actually a response to Vezok asking for a claim. It easily fits with an unclaimed tracker hinting that he has not received any tracking result yet (hence not knowing whether the ability has succeeded or failed).
-BB's making a lot of noise about the "no result" and knowing if OS's action succeeded/failed. OS has stated he received no result on N1 or N2, and thus he concludes his tracking failed (presumably due to Toast's JK).

OS

correct me if I'm wrong, but it sounds like you are claiming to have received no response regarding your ability. My brother thought you might be claiming to have received a PM saying "Your action failed".

2> I reviewed what's been claimed/flipped so far. Not much to add from that analysis except that I think I know what BB keeps hinting/soft claiming. Suffice to say, he's not on the table as a lynch candidate for me anymore (I've discussed some with my brother and he still dislikes BB, but does agree that my analysis/guess is reasonable). To be clear, my theory doesn't address the possibility of BB having been recruited, but at this point a recruit is lower priority than the CR and also lower priority than SK or mafia. Also, if my theory is correct, I have a question for BB/possibility to consider if he decides to claim/share results.

3> WLC's OMGUS vote for me (before OMGUS swapping to OS) is even more strange given his claim to cult protect Kast. For whatever reason (prolly cuz we weren't pushing him at the time) he apparently thought Kast was obv. town enough to be worth a cult protection; yet from there he's suddenly decided Kast is some flavor of scum? Also, given NPIAU had to have been recruited N1, WLC-town would know that Kast is definitely not recruit and unlikely CR.

Kast · Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:13 am

BB wrote:If you didn't get a 'result' then you would have KNOWN your action FAILED because you didn't get a result. And thus you wouldn't say your infamous 'i haven't gotten any indication from my target that the action failed or succeeded' yadda yadda. It's plain as day that OS is lying.

Kast already explained this. You are reading him out of context. Oversoul said he didn't know if the result failed AFTER vezok claimed the delay action. Thus he would honestly have no way of knowing D2 if his action succeeded or failed. He made that statement D2 after Vezok (1) claimed the delay and (2) directly asked for a claim from Oversoul. Read in context please.

pedit:He didn't say he's looking at his target for day actions to indicate confirmation of his ability. Read his post in context. He is clearly referring to not receiving any indication of what his target did at night. You are reading your own biased theory into this.

Kast · Post Post #2093 (isolation #84) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:27 pm

@OS-
I'm pretty sure BB is claiming something that is undisputably town; and based on what people have already claimed, it is very unlikely that there would be a counter-claim. I don't want to say more on that unless BB decides to claim.

@Mr.S-

Spoiler: WLC is prob-CR. You're calling him scummy then asserting with no reason that he's mafia and not CR. Fix your vote plz

@BB-

Spoiler: You misunderstand my brother's point.

Spoiler: You don't need to claim.

Spoiler: I think you're wrong about OS/Toast.

@Mod-

Prods on Hiplop and inHim please (and anyone else due for a prod).

@Toast/Muffin-
Let's lynch WLC. If he isn't CR, then we can move on to CJ (if he IS CR then CJ is still a potential candidate for a recruit). But odds are that he

is

CR. At the moment we're pretty much stalemated and most of the secondary support for CJ is secondary to WLC.

@WLC-

Spoiler: WLC is flailing & prob-CR

Spoiler: Tans is prob-town; you're obv-lying and prob-CR

@BB, 2077-

Spoiler: You're speculating a lot; come back down to Earth and let's lynch the CR

@OS, 2078-
Tans claimed to use the standard Roleblock stolen from Andy to RB WLC. If the roleblock happens AFTER losing his powers, then he was probably blocked. If it happens BEFORE losing his powers, then it should have blocked WLC. Also, ignore Nik's claim, it was an obv. joke/troll.

@Tans, 2079-

Spoiler: BB's prob-town

Spoiler: Hammering is prob-useless

@BB, 2089-
Tans point is that Scar was full BP in BNM and it was a

Spoiler: HUGE MISTAKE that mods said they would not repeat

Kast · Post Post #2094 (isolation #85) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 1:35 pm

Making the CR impossible to be killed by mafia or SK is extremely imbalanced. From BNM, I'm pretty sure that even if the CR was lynched the remaining recruits were still Black Lanterns with Black Rings who still had to be dealt with by the other factions.

Also, BNM allowed recruiting of scum members (which I thought was going to be fixed for this game, but since GW and Apok didn't flip Uncultable or Unrecruitable, then maybe it wasn't fixed).

Kast · Post Post #2128 (isolation #86) » Wed Aug 31, 2011 4:39 pm

Haven't checked with my brother on this, but he's already said he suspects CJ as next most likely after WLC.

If you're asking whether we'd be willing to go with a CJ lynch

IN THE EVENT WLC IS NOT CR

, then yeah no problem with that. Obviously CJ should post and claim/explain anything before getting lynched (so this isn't an agreement to turbo lynch if WLC is non-CR).

If by vote lackey you mean you expect us to follow a vote on

ANYONE

even if there's no good reason for it (eg. Tans or Nikanor or something ridiculous like that), then can't promise I'll be with you on that.

I'm also fine with Tans getting the hammer (lulz if he is a stealth ring collecting Third Party again).

Kast · Post Post #2311 (isolation #87) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:31 pm

Quick check in, I'll try to read more thoroughly and post more in-depth thoughts (also try to consult with my brother on his thoughts).

@WLC's flip says a few things:
-There were 3 powers erased last night, which makes the motivator/doubler theory less likely.
-WLC had flavor that implicated Aquaman as Black. That would seemingly point to OS as potential CR; but it just doesn't seem to add up with claimed actions.

@Ludi's claim of Blue-Doc -> Orange-Rolecop seems strange. TBH, it seems more likely that CJ got recruited and perhaps he got a corresponding role change to assist his new faction. Given the RBs and claimed BPs, I don't buy that a doc is a necessary role in the first place. Also with BB's claim confirming the missing role, plus the already confirmed watcher, my tracker, and another claimed watcher/tracker, game balance doesn't suggest/support a town rolecop.

Also not liking how Ludi and Nikanor both ignored the whole beginning of the day but miraculously appeared as soon as WLC was lynched.

@BB's claim-
I actually thought he was hinting color cop; that would seem to be the ideal town cop role (Black for cult, White for...whatever white is, Red/Yellow for mafia, other for...other?...

I guess the non-lantern town and scum mess up a color cop

). I actually thought the bus driver speculation was a result of investigating a claimed player who claimed one color but showed up as a different (but also good) color. The claim that N1 result was a specific name whereas N2 result was generic doesn't suggest bus driving to me. Our tracking ability returned simply the name of the person who was targeted (Andy) but did not say who actually did the targeting (we're assuming it was Tans and that we didn't get redirected).

BB should ask the mods to clarify whether his N1 target was guaranteed to be who he tried investigating and whether the difference in result PMs is meaningful. I'm guessing it's just inconsistency from having three mods.

@Muffin/CJ-
I'm pretty sure Mr.S just said doc because people are auto-clearing CJ without any thought based on him claiming former doc.

@Mr. S-
It does not appear that the remaining WLs {Muffin, Hiplop, Nik} picked up on your hint/crumb. If you genuinely have something confirming you as a WL, it's probably better to stop playing coy and share it directly.

------

I need to think more and re-read OS given WLC's now confirmed-flavor condemning him. For now going with best impressions up to now.
VOTE: CJ

Kast · Post Post #2318 (isolation #88) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 3:55 pm

Also, @BB, a cop investigation on inhim seems like a huge waste. That's not at all what I was thinking about and it's just a huge waste (I actually was thinking if you got a color that didn't match the claim it might be a GF who used a different scum member's fake claim).

Investigate someone you suspect please; also keep in mind that it's possible there are mafia cult members, but also anyone you investigate as mafia almost definitely is NOT the CR.

I also meant to say this in the previous post, but I don't think your claim will keep you safe; if you ARE able to find cult, they're just going to recruit you and stop it. If you are NOT able to find cult, they can ignore you. If you are going to find mafia, they should kill you. Since you announced that you're going after the miller; if InHim is ACTUALLY a miller, then scum have motive to kill you, thus protecting themselves tomorrow, and setup InHim as a mislynch for tomorrow.

Your claim is gonna get you killed, and to be honest, I doubt mafia figured it out, would have figured it out, or would have any incentive to kill you without the claim.

EBWOP:
@Ludi-
-It's strange because it doesn't seem to fit balance, doesn't match any sensible flavor, doesn't have any synergy with anything else that's been claimed.
-I'm not

sure

what you are. I

AM

voting you. I think there is a good chance that you are lying about your role which leaves you as one of the remaining possible CRs (I agree that it seems like most people are not fakeclaiming their actual abilities).
-NPIAU is confirmed BP. Tans/Andy pair has essentially confirmed each other's RBs. Vezok/OS interaction plus Nik/Toast N1 claim pretty much confirms Toast's JK (and his CC on Nik with unprompted JK claim doesn't seem at all like a plausible fake claim). Muffin has claimed Downgrader/RBer.
-Friend is confirmed Watcher. Tans pretty much confirmed my tracker (Mr. S, it's been said already, but my brother made an undisputable crumb of the track result well before Tans or Andy posted ANYTHING, the crumb will be revealed if we massclaim, he also soft claimed that we did not trust Tans on D1 but trust Tans on D2

ALSO

prior to Tans claiming anything). OS has claimed Track/Watch (which might be scum, but if he is, he probably genuinely has that ability). BB's claimed mafia cop was a role missing from the claimed Town arsenal; some form of affiliation cop (or potentially name or color cop) is practically guaranteed for this game. Also left out Cult Cop, which leaves town with a cult cop and an affiliation cop, then multiple tracking/watching abilities. If we didn't have the tracking/watching abilities, we'd probably need a JoAT or a backup cop of some kind. As it is, we have a good amount of investigative roles.

Kast · Post Post #2321 (isolation #89) » Thu Sep 01, 2011 4:10 pm

@BB-
I played a game once where the cop decided to claim for no reason and announce his target publicly with no intention to change it. He insisted it was in scum's best interest to leave him alive while he caught the SK for them.

It wasn't the SK. Mafia killed him. Town subsequently mislynched the cop's claimed target (without any prompting from the mafia OR the SK). Town lost (no surprise).

In the event that you are correct and InHim is the CR; then tonight he recruits you and tomorrow you lie and tell everyone that he is mafia. Mafia don't know any better since he claimed miller. Town doesn't know any better. CR isn't any closer to being lynched (even worse he could tell you to lie tomorrow and claim a different investigation on someone else to screw with town).

How about this: just pretend you're going to work with town; tell us you're going to keep your target secret and it might be someone other than InHim. Let scum wifom it (or block you if one of the RBs is scum controlled, or whatever). Don't make yourself a big target.

Also, Tans' claimed role is more a Thief or Ability Thief than a Copier. He can correct me if wrong, but the role is only a partial RoleCop, partial RB, and partial role Copier. He probably only learns the ability that he steals. A full up role cop would be more standard for scum of some sort to improve night planning.

Kast · Post Post #2383 (isolation #90) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 3:15 am

This is KAst2: I trying to skim. FYI I have no internet at home and haven't been able to read since Wednesday afternoon due to my roommate moving out and taking his cable modem but Comcast refusing to allow us to activate a new model until the service contract expires (should be expired today, so should be able to get net setup tonight or tomorrow morning). Will try to catch up when I can but was out of the office at work yesterday so have a lot of stuff to catch up on.

Kast · Post Post #2386 (isolation #91) » Fri Sep 02, 2011 7:17 am

bb wrote:CR won't recruit me because I'm a high-profile target for mafia kills on subsequent nights. If I die the following night it would be revealed I was recruited and then yall will know who CR is.

Not an idiot >=(.

You idiot. If inhim is NOT CR, then he really is miller or mafia. Then CR can recruit you, he tell you to clear inhim, and when mafia kills you and you flip cult, town mislynches inhim thinking in was inhim as CR. Your "safety"/"best" case here also screws town.

Also, I'm fine with mass claim in either Muffin's order or in some other. Not sure about Kast, but I don't think he'll have a problem with it either.

Muffin, thanks for hte point on inhim. I must have missed his claim, and I was strongly suspecting different name/flavor based on his play/suspicion list. I will have to re-read him.

Also, the original claim that the PM went to justice league masons and confirmed them as non cult. His specific claim was later admitted to be a gambit, with the implication that there was a WL specific PM. The fact that Mr. S. assumed PM receivers were WL rather than Justice League implies either he didn't read at all, or more likely, that he assumed the PM masonry was WL related due to also receiving the PM. I think this fairly solidly identifies Mr. S as being WL as per his claim.

Also, WTF is up with Nik? He comes back right after WLC is lynched, and berates the town, yet he was voting WLC and attacking him, and was also the first person to criticize the "Anti-Cult Doctor" wording. Is he really prone to going away for 2-3 days and completely forgettting/changing his opinions?

Kast · Post Post #2605 (isolation #92) » Tue Sep 06, 2011 9:48 am

Kast2 here.

Kdub: I can only be CR if you believe CR recruit & Track, OR you believe Tans and Nopoint were both recruited N1.

Flavor perspective, Ludi's claim makes sense, but I agree with some of the points BB/Muffin/Toast brought up; with 5+ roleblock abilities, 2+ BP abilities, and 5+ investigative abilities claimed, there is both sufficient blocking/protection, and sufficient redundancy in roles that a traditional doctor is not necessary.

Want to point out something else: I think Andy said he would create a CR + JK role if he did setup, but we know there is a Anti Cult Doctor, so CR *cannot* be a JK, thus Toasty can't be CR,

if

Toasty is JK. I also strongly doubt that Mod would give Toasty a JK false claim if Toasty didn't have some way to actually JK.

BB is almost certainly not CR due to claiming Mafia Cop.

Not seeing the hiplop as CR argument form Ludi; feels like misdirection/flailing to me.

I'm fairly sure Muffin has always been openly vague about WL as non CR, whereas Nik, Hiplop, and Friend were blatantly insistent early game that WL cannot possible by CR. I've been operating on the assumption since mid D2 that Muffin's implication is the most feasible.

Agree that if any WL is CR, it is most likely Mr. S, who still hasn't claimed or explained his WL claim to any other than WLs.

Pedit: "But nopoint still seems to have died via suicide, which means not completely vanillized." Obviously so. If you were a mason lover and your partner suddenly *stopped* being a mason lover, you'd know he was recruited. I doubt any form of vanillizing would have ended mason-lover status. That's more like a pseudo affiliation than a power/ability.

Kast · Tue Sep 06, 2011 10:59 am

@Mod-

Is there any game significance to LLD's and FM's death as opposed to Peregrine's and Friend's deaths?

- Lady Lambdadelta, Deadman (Town Redirector), member of the Justice League, aligned with the town, died Night 1.
- FrozenMirror, Munk (Cult Cop), member of the Indigo Tribe, aligned with the town died Night 1.

- kondi2424 PeregrineV, Kilowog (Drill Sergeant), member of the Green Lantern Corps, aligned with the town, killed Night 2.
- Bogre Friend, Hawkgirl (1-Shot Watcher Lover-Mason), member of the Justice League, aligned with the town, killed Night 2.

@Ludi-
It's been explained a few times why your claimed role & role change doesn't fit for flavor, balance, or synergy reasons. It's also been explained a few times that your behavior is plagued with low activity and general lack of attempts to contribute (to be fair, your recent string of posts in the face of an imminent lynch is a change from your previous posting behavior). While there isn't definite consensus, you're exaggerating in claiming that Hiplop (or any of the D1 WL's who got PMs) are being cleared for no reason; it's pretty clear that several people got a WL PM that implies they are unlikely to be CR.

You disagreeing with the explanations and asserting that there is NO EXPLANATION simply because you disagree with them is an invalid and pointless defense.

@Subliminal/CJ-
As far as lynching between Subliminal and CJ,

IF

they were exactly equal, then it would seemingly be better to lynch the one who has had more opportunities to recruit and thus is potentially more dangerous. But they aren't equal. Mr.S claimed late but he did claim to get the WL PM and at least one of the WLs has confirmed that Mr.S bread crumbed being a WL. Further, CJ's claimed role sounds fake and this alone should be enough to tip the scales in his favor.

I'm all for lynching CJ today and letting Andy block Subliminal tonight if CJ is not the recruiter.

@Kdub's claim-
I'm a bit torn on the claim. We already have one confirmed 1x PGO. However, it was a mafia 1x PGO, which could imply a symmetry of one town PGO and one mafia PGO. If mod answers that there is a mechanics significant difference in the wording for the deaths on N1 and the deaths on N2, then it supports Kdub's claim. Barring that, there's another plausible symmetry for a PGO (mafia PGO and SK PGO) that would make sense as an anti-cult balance.

Also, with the number of kills on N1 and N2 staying the same (with NPIAU's death being a function of role), it's entirely possible that Kdub is telling the truth about the Peregrine kill, but is lying to hide an N1 kill on either LLD or FM (either of which would pretty clearly implicate him as SK).

People claiming that Kdub revealed under 0 pressure are incorrect. If IHSIB was lying/fake claiming, then Kdub HAD to reveal (or at least claim something different) since BB made it very clear that he was going to investigate IHSIB no matter what. If IHSIB was lying (actually Cult or SK), then BB would have revealed that tomorrow and Kdub would certainly have been lynched tomorrow.

PEDIT-
@Hiplop-
Is there a reason you think Subliminal is Red Mafia?

Kast · Post Post #2704 (isolation #94) » Tue Sep 06, 2011 4:02 pm

Toasty jailkeeps Kast
vezokpiraka delays
Kast

Two points regarding this:
1> This is absolutely idiotic. Even if you genuinely believed that Kast might be CR (which is completely ridiculous given our CONFIRMED Track BEFORE Tans or Andy said ANYTHING), there's absolutely no reason to waste two potential town PRs here. Given that Vezokpiraka ALREADY claimed to have delayed Kast on N2, then a JK from Toast should stop any actions ANYWAY. Vezok should follow the previously proposed plan (I think it was Muffin's plan?) and delay someone else, so that Toast can JK that person on N3 and effectively lock down 2 players. IHSIB is a good delay candidate as potential SK. Oversoul is another potential candidate given WLCs mod flavor hint that Aquaman is a Black Lantern (and potentially CR*).

And that's ONLY if you genuinely think that CR BOTH recruited AND tracked on N1. If you don't then Toast AND Vezok shouldn't waste their PRs on a VT and should instead block/delay actual potential scum.

2> Mr.S has inconsistently gone from saying:
Kast is non-CR based on his claim and play >

(Kast claims a breadcrumb to be revealed later)

> Ok Kast isn't CR >

(later he apparently forgets his position)

> Kast hasn't given 100% proof so let's RB him >

(later support for CJ lynch seems to be stalling)

> let's lynch Kast and RB CJ >

(breadcrumb revealed)

> Kast can't be CR let's lynch CJ >

(later he apparently forgets that proof of track equals proof of non-CR)

> Kast should be RBed AND Delayed

The proposed action plan

DOES

look like what Kdub posited; Mr. S

could

be setting up for an expected CJ town-flip. I could potentially buy a paranoid Magua not accepting my track PRIOR to the breadcrumb being revealed (it's still an idiotic position given my brother linked to exactly the post containing the breadcrumb and described exactly what it contained), but to continue pushing that BS after it's been revealed is ridiculous.

That said, CJ is still MUCH more likely CR than Sub given his play and his claim.

*- Did everyone just forget that WLC's last thoughts and message were emphasis of his role PM flavor implicating OS as a Black Lantern? I voted CJ earlier because I wanted to think on OS some more, but it seems like nobody else is even considering that. OS was cleared as CR due to the delay + NPIAU's flip, however, we still don't know how Vezok's delay ability works (or even if Vezok is town...it's entirely possible Vezok is scum and he's lying about either the delay ability or his delay target).

@Vezok-
Please ask mods about your Delay ability:
-What class of actions does the delay ability fit within the NAR list (e.g. is it Blocking, Redirecting, Miscellaneous)?
-If your target uses a standard investigation ability and is

ALSO

targeted by a standard roleblock on the same night, would the target's ability still happen on the following night?
-If your target uses a standard investigation ability and is targeted by a standard roleblock on the following night, would the target's ability still happen on the following night?
-For that matter, does your ability delay explicitly state how long it delays an ability (e.g. one FULL day/night cycle, one PHASE, the NEXT night phase,...etc.)?

One theory I had earlier which I forget was that vezok might be reading his power wrong and perhaps his delay is just for one phase (which would explain Mastin's day death, clear Kdub, and indicate OS is SK or mafia (also would explain why N2 only had 2 apparent kills)). If that's the case, then it would also prevent the Delay/JK double lock.

Kast · Wed Sep 07, 2011 11:31 am

kast2 here.

If WL are not confirmed CR by role info, then we are much more confirmed non CR than any of them.

kdub: We are confirmed tracker. Unless CR can track and recruit, and on the same night, we are confirmed non CR.

If CJ/Ludi flips CR, trackers should consider blocking kdub in case he is SK.

OS: I agree that you are unlikely CR. I don't agree that you are confirmed; this will depend on the answers to Vezok's questions to the mod, and whether vezok is telling the truth. As Kast pointed out, it is possible Vezok is lying, and if you ARE CR, you wouldn't have any reason to CC/disprove Vezok if his fake claim clears you; in fact it might give you some incentive to keep him alive or even recruit him. That said, I find it unlikely both Vezok is lying and you are CR given whats happened so far.

Mr. S. I don't see why you are resisting claiming. You have continued to lose credibility in my opinion nearly all day today. Part of it may be OMGUS for your nonsensical insistence on keeping me at 1 or 2 on your list, but certainly doesn't help that you have ceased to present rational arguments and are taking a "because I said so" approach to everything.

unvote

to prevent a hammer.

Kast · Wed Sep 07, 2011 12:07 pm

By trackers* I meant blockers* should consider kdub. Kdub, I realize you claimed one shot. If you are SK, I think claiming 1 shot vig makes you a less mafia threat, so I don't see why you wouldn't pull that trick. With as many RB as we have, if we can get an RB to guarantee there isn't a SK running loose, that seems a win for me, and all the more if it's the mafia RB wasting a block on a now VT.

BB: I'm not sure your insistence on there being a doctor in game. I don't see the relevance for a doctor when there are soft duplicates/redundancy for most of our roles, there are 5+ claimed role block abilities, there is an explicit JK/untargettable claim, there are two claimed/revealed PGO's, there is a known redirector, etc. Doesn't feel like we need a doctor with this setup.

Toasty lying about Nik is inconsistent. Toasty pushed for a 1-for-1 trade with Nik when it happened. If he was scum that would have guaranteed he was lynched if he was lying about his role. Rather, if he was mafia and he knew Nik was lying, he would have made some other claim that would have been both credible and consistent. The claim he made is completely inconsistent with start of D2 events, and only didn't lead to a mislynch because Nik backed down and admitted to gambiting.

Kast · Wed Sep 07, 2011 12:10 pm

If I am an SK, then by claiming that my vig was one-shot, I basically can't kill anymore except in a 3/4-player endgame scenario or else I will expose myself. Since I wouldn't want to do that if I were an SK, it stands to reason that I would not take an action tonight anyway even if I had one.

but if you aren't blocked or tracked, and you do use a kill, there is no way to prove it was you...

I'm jsut calling this in case it becomes an issue later. I don't particularly believe that you are not a 1 shot.

Kast · Post Post #2762 (isolation #98) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 4:15 pm

Mr. S. You didn't resist WLC because of the anti cult doctor claim. You resisted because you insisted he is mafia. You're putting a lot of spin on your positions, or you've convinced yourself you're so accurate that you're changing what you remember to match what happened.

Ftr, I agree Ludi si most likely CR at this point, but you approach to this hasn't felt very pro town. It just feels mulish and surly.

Kast · Post Post #2768 (isolation #99) » Wed Sep 07, 2011 7:17 pm

vote:Ludi

Not in L-1 range anymore...Tans please explain your switch.

Kast · Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:44 am

Caught up, my brother posted most of what I would have commented on already (except that it was a dumb move to unvote since it allowed things to move more and more to a standoff/stalled game state).

@Kdub-
-Do you actually suspect any of the WLs, or are you just asking for their claims for the sake of having a mass claim?
-My brother said it, but I want to emphasize that Kdub as SK claiming to be a one-shot vig does NOTHING in the event that you are actually an SK and continue killing afterward. There's no traceability to the NKs; for that matter we don't even know how many NKs there are. Plus if you are an actual vig, you should claim 1x even if you have more shots since it'll screw with scum. If you got somehow caught killing someone, you could easily fall back and claim that. We've played together in games where this same issue was raised so I know you know better. Point stands that you are a good target for town RB/JK/Delay effects.

@Sub-
I seriously doubt you could have any town role which is better to be mislynched than claimed and left alive. If you're unwilling to believe that you might be lynched today, then you're not paying attention. I think Ludi was complaining about the numbers already, and though his scare tactic was way off base (it's ridiculous to count mafia & potential cult as a single anti-town voting bloc), town is better off with the extra body (even if it's a useless PR) than if we waste our lynch on a stubborn townie.

@BB-
-Dove flipping unrecruitable and Atrocitus flipping uncultable shoots down your "only WL can be recruited" theory.
-Another difference between Hiplop and Mr.S is that Hiplop was part of the group who claimed the PM when it happened (he was the last, but also the first to indicate role info about being a WL). Mr.S didn't say anything until his Entity fake claim, and then much later added himself to the WL group while pointing out a breadcrumb that only WLs should see.
-I'm pretty sure dana treats a "fake" quotes from a mod-PM the same as actual quotes from a mod-PM. OS not getting modkilled doesn't really say anything about whether he's telling the truth or not; all it says is that dana didn't look at it yet, or he thinks it's a reasonable paraphrase (or "apparent paraphrase").

@Mod-

-If a player pretends to quote something from their role PM (e.g. scum quotes from a fake claim or pretends quote their abilities from their PM), would they get the same punishment as actually quoting from their role PM?
-Is it safe to conclude that OS not being modkilled says anything about whether his claim was true?

@Tans/OS/Andy-
Let's lynch Ludi. If he's not CR, then the RBs can handle Subliminal. There's really no need to be so confused or indecisive about it. Right now the game is stalling out and people are just filling with pointless spam. Let's move on.

@BB-
To be clear, are you primarily suspecting Nik because of his cop false claim and his subsequent disappearance/lurking? I agree that his gamble to get Toog lynched on D1 without any info to back it up was idiotic (very lucky, but very stupid move). His gambit pretty much clears him as non mafia. You weren't here for the WL PM and claims, but Nik was pretty clearly and obviously a WL, which makes him extremely unlikely to be cult at the time. It's possible a CR might have recruited him, but then again, the WLs claimed or implied unrecruitability so I think it's actually fairly likely that CR would have avoided the directly claimed WLs (ie. NPIAU was explicitly not one of the WL PM group but rather was pretty obviously soft claimed as a town mason with Friend).

Kast · Thu Sep 08, 2011 7:58 am

@Sub-
Half the people voting you are unsure and hopping between yourself and Ludi.
Most of them are voting you because Ludi claimed to formerly be a doctor and now be a traditionally scum PR. His claim is both unverifiable and inherently suspicious.

Even if you are lynched despite claiming, how does that hurt town? You've locked out another potential anti-cult role that scum might use as a fake claim.

Kast · Thu Sep 08, 2011 8:48 am

Kast2 here:

Mr. S wrote:hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin are neither cult recruiter nor mafia.

Or, to put it another way: if we're the cult recruiter, then none of hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin are (this should be obvious), and if we're town, we're telling the truth, and then none of hiplop/Nikanor/Muffin are recruiter. Get this?

This is not a proof. Posit the case you are recruited or mafia scum lying. In that case hip/nik/muff *could* be anything. Bad logic.

Mr. S wrote:the way the role works, it's useful if cult is aware of it.

Assuming you mean the opposite?

@BB: Nopoint never claimed WL. For that matter, Friend claimed WL and PM, but flipped Green Lantern...

One thing puzzles me looking: WLC's role formatting looks different from every other dead player flip; his role is not in parenthesis, and rather than a strike-through like nopoint's flip, it just states new and former roles, comma separated.

Mod:

is this inconsistent formatting due to different mods updating the post, or can we conclude this is a different game mechanic?

Kast · Thu Sep 08, 2011 9:01 am

Mr. S wrote:We are 100% because of role info that Nikanor, zMuffinMan, and hiplop are non-CR,
non-town
. Our townflip will confirm that this is true.

I assume you mean non-mafia?

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 2:48 pm

Kast 2 here. We did not receive any delayed results. OS also claimed to have been blocked rather than receiving delayed results.

My best bet is either Ludi CR (as per Mr. S), or Vezok with a fake delay claim. So far, the delay has

not

been verified, and everyone he's claimed to have delayed has received no result or been blocked the same night by another player. Thus, he is not cleared either.

BB, your Toasty hate is blinding and foolish. Please consider the following.

If Ludi is

not CR

and

is actually role cop

, then Toasty as mafia shouldn't target him; Toasty would want him to uncover the CR and would likely try to block the CR or the *mafia cop*. Toasty obv has the JK power he claims; he isn't afraid of a role cop. It makes no sense for a mafia Toasty to block role cop Ludi. It only makes sense for Toasty to block Ludi if he thinks Ludi is CR (which is still the most likely result). I have NFC why you guys all switched to Mr. S.

There is no

mafia

incentive for Toasty to target Ludi that

town

wouldn't also share equally.

Hiplop, please pay attn. Kdub claimed both extra night kills. We still have two day kill/attempts unaccounted for.

Ludi: Kdub just replaced into the game. I don't buy your argument. He replaced into a game where there are over 100 pages of posts, and if you read when he placed his vote, that was something like 70-100 posts after momentum on your lynch had already died due to apathy and Nikanor already started the charge on Mr. S. The fact that he unvoted when the wagon restarted, and that he didn't hammer you despite claiming to be equally suspicious of you and Mr. S is proof that he wasn't trying to get you lynched.

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 7:43 pm

@Ludi-
Sorry but you don't get to quote things out of context and ignore what was going on to twist the facts.

At the time Kdub voted you to L-1, Andy had just said he would join the Ludi wagon since there were NO FEASIBLE ALTERNATIVES and the next highest candidate was

2 VOTES

. You were the top candidate for CR (and STILL are the top candidate), and for all intents and purposes town was about to do the right thing and lynch you. It was an obvious bus and something Kdub does frequently as scum.

Then you yelled at him for placing an L-1 vote and he IMMEDIATELY removed his vote. From there it follows pretty classic Kdub scum play; continue calling Ludi the obvious lynch but refuse to actually place the vote. Instead he posts several times that he will wait on hammering until the WLs claim*.

He even avoided the hammer opportunity when Vezok placed Sub back at L-1. (For that matter he avoided the hammer opportunity on Subliminal when he was at L-1; which pretty flat out debunks Ludi's ludicrous claim that Kdub just wanted to lynch either of CJ or MS).

The ONE reservation I have with Ludi as CR is WLC's flavor info on OS. Given that OS was also unwilling to hammer CJ when given the opportunity (despite saying he was fine lynching either one), I'm wondering if cult did start with 2 members and/or OS might be backup CR to CJ as primary CR.

If I was his CR, he would have read the thread carefully to check my current vote amount.

Lol, this reads like you are

STILL

mad at him for putting his leader in danger of lynch.

@Ludi Lynch-
Atm, I'm pretty mad with my brother for unvoting Ludi after Kdub which pretty much killed the momentum for the Ludi lynch. Town screwed up yesterday; we're not doing the same today. You're obv CR from play, interactions, implausible flavor, implausible claim, PoE of potential CRs; pretty much EVERYTHING points to you as CR.

What's MOST frustrating is that everyone has pretty much acknowledged this at some point, but for some inexplicable reason everyone decided to either give you a 100% get out of jail free card since you claimed doc (WHICH YOU AREN'T EVEN CLAIMING ANYMORE) or just gives you a pass for no reason at all (wth?!).

VOTE: Ludi

@Kdub's vig flip-
With Kdub flipping actual town vig (prior to recruitment), it pretty much confirms that one of the N1 kills was his fault and the N2 Peregrine kill was his fault. That makes it extremely unlikely that we have both nightkilling mafia AND nightkilling SK. Given the day kill on D2 and the Mod announcement of failed day kill on D1, it makes a Day-SK much more likely. Lack of kill on D3 would imply either the DSK forgot to submit a kill, or kill attempt failed (potentially hit a BP, potentially has a night component to his ability which got blocked,...other possibilities).

If there is DSK who failed a kill on D3, it's almost definitely the CR. If so, DSK should share his target.

*- Btw, Kdub's strong push for the WLs to claim is pretty clearly an attempt to determine which of the WLs cult should recruit last night. It's highly likely that all three of Nik/Muffin/Hiplop were non-recruits on D3. It's possible that one of the three is a recruit now; however it's also possible that the CR stuck with one of the claimed PRs since Nik/Muffin/Hiplop didn't claim yesterday.

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 7:49 pm

@Andy/OS/Tans/Vezok-
You guys all abandoned the CJ wagon for Subliminal (for practically no reason), but indicated suspicion of both at some point. Let's see the votes follow through on the previous statements.

I'm guessing there's probably at least 1 if not 2 scum among the people who switched. I'm also guessing they realized CJ is the CR but avoided the CJ lynch to buy themselves another mislynch. If we lynched CJ yesterday, Mister S would be pretty much confirmed town at this point and we could switch over to hunting scum and potentially SK instead of continuing this fruitless CR hunt.

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 7:49 pm

The previous 2 posts were both the actual Kast.

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 8:15 pm

@Ludi-
Are you an idiot? Reread my post I included links to the ACTUAL POSTS. Are you trying to bury the point in pointless quote walls?

Kdub very clearly and obviously did NOT hammer you. He explicitly stated that he was caught up.

Please stop trying to waste time or create confusion. Kdub REFUSING TO HAMMER YOU while stating that you were the POE CULT RECRUITER AND HIS TOP CHOICE is in NO WAY an attempt to hammer.

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 8:16 pm

Also, love how Ludi just OMGUSes away and doesn't post anything except when it concerns his lynch. Now I'm supposed to be what exactly? Did Hiplop stop being CR?

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 8:25 pm

@Andy-
To be clear, are you claiming that you do not suspect CJ/Ludi of being CR and have no intention to vote him today (nor intention of blocking him last night) despite yesterday's posts to the contrary?

Kast · Sun Sep 11, 2011 8:30 pm

I'm going to sleep. I shouldn't have checked tonight; I bet I'm going to see people doing extremely ridiculous and frustrating things tomorrow when I check in again.

Yesterday was:
Muffin and Hiplop attack Ludi
"the WLs are actually cult"
Mr.S pushes Ludi
"Mr.S must be CR"

Ludi pushes through MISLYNCH on Mr.S

Today:
Kast pushes Ludi
"Kast must be CR because he's going for MISLYNCHES"

Kast · Mon Sep 12, 2011 3:00 am

Kast2:

Muffin: BB is way more confirmed than Andy or Vezok. I would rather he claim last of the 4 you asked. I'd much rather Andy -> Vezok -> BB.

Kast · Mon Sep 12, 2011 9:11 am

Pay attention to the game please. Muffin already stated D3 that he couldn't use his power debuff/block as he used it N2 and he can't use it consecutive nights.

Toast as CR makes no sense. We have confirmed claim by Oversoul that he was blocked N2, and we know kdub had to be the N2 recruit, so OS and Toasty couldn't have been coordinating as per BB's original off the wall theorycrafting.

Toast as mafia JK/blocker wouldn't make sense to try to block a *role cop*. Andy: role cop is not mafia or cult cop. It wouldn't help confirm or deny anything other than fake role claims. We know Toasty has confirmed blockage, thus whether or not he's lying about affiliation, he has nothing to fear from a rolecop. A Mafia Toasty only has incentive to block Ludi if Ludi is CR. A Town Toasty has more incentive; town toasty would block if Ludi is CR or mafia.

The only way claimed night actions might make sense is if we have 4 players coordinating lies or if vezok took a certain action.

Ludi, you claimed no result. Did you receive a message indicating no result, or did you receive no message?

Kast · Tue Sep 13, 2011 1:30 pm

If people do not unvote until we get claims I will intentionally lie/not reveal any of my results >:-(

Yeah...we already had someone saying pretty much the same thing yesterday. He was black recruit stalling to avoid lynching his recruiter. I'm not eager to repeat that fiasco, especially with a third of our voting population showing major ADHD (some of which is potentially scum motivated).

If you or anyone else has results that

change

anything, then obviously people who have already voted should reconsider and revote as necessary. There's absolutely zero reason to start giving people (even fake claiming docs) free passes while we wait for claims.

That aside, it looks like we're just waiting on claims from Vezok, Muffin, and BB?
-It sounds like Vezok is following Muffin's claim order and waiting for BB.
-It sounds like BB is following BB's claim order and waiting for Vezok (and potentially also waiting for Muffin?).
-It sounds like Muffin is willing to claim to break any deadlock (and previously was not part of Muffin's claim order other than a soft hint that he has info to shake things up AFTER the night actions are all claimed).

I honestly don't care and seriously doubt it makes any difference which of Vezok/BB claims first. We've got a delay ability whose target has prolly already been revealed by the other claims. We've got a cop investigation that either failed and tells us an RB lied or succeeded doesn't tell us anything relevant to lynching the CR.

Vezok or BB, one of you just claim your actions please so we can move past this waiting/stalling game.

If Muffin thinks he can claim something now to break the deadlock, then go for it. Otherwise we're just waiting on two people who are waiting for each other but don't seem to have realized it.

Kast · Wed Sep 14, 2011 7:01 am

Kast2 here.

Read through this BB. Seriously.

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... Resolution

Recruit is 9. Investigate is 10. If CR doesn't vanillize their recruits, then anyone with an investigative power would have the investigation resolve AFTER being recruited, thus it makes sense for Mods to have the investigator pick a new target.

If you got mafia result on someone, then claim it. If you got town result on someone, claim it. It's your pride getting in the way of your results. You refuse to believe you can be wrong, so you assume that your results are tampered with rather than accept that you are wrong...

I do agree it's weird they kept me alive and killed inHim (unless they were trying to target Cult Recruits for some reason). The only reason I see this making sense is if they are redirecting me. Which is partially why I think me claiming is bad because then yall will assume I'm wrong about the redirecting and clear people as innocent.

Are you an idiot? Mafia probably knew you'd either going to target town or that you'd waste your investigation. Killing kdub indicates they either suspected kdub as CR or suspected kdub as SK (as per Muffin's speculation above).

I'm surprised they didn't kill Ludi; are they really too dumb to realize he must be CR?

Kast · Thu Sep 15, 2011 6:35 am

Toast: BB's theory is definitely some holy shit.

Neither Toasty NOR Nik can be CR. Ludi is CR. Let's proceed with CR lynch now, please.

Kast · Thu Sep 15, 2011 11:36 am

@Vanillizer-
Vezok didn't claim his target did he?

Speculation: If TT is mafia, then it's he may have been lying about JKing OS on N2. In that case, OS becomes a strong bet for Vanillizer (either mafia or cult). N2 having 3 vanillas would mean Kilowog likely doubled OS on N2 while one of the vanillas was a delayed action from N1. No action last night could be one of several possibilities (OS may have done the mafia kill instead of his ability, Vezok may have delayed OS again, CR might have been vanillized and doesn't want to claim).

Some other possibilities:
-Vanillize ability might be limited shot similar to Toog's Janitor
-Target of the vanillize might be immune (Hider or SK with Immunity)
-Another possibility is Ludi is the Vanillizer (OS CR with Ludi Cult Vanililzer?), and the RB on Ludi stopped him from acting last night.

There's really too many unknowns and too many possibilities.

Unofficial VC:
Nik (4) - Oversoul, Blackberry, Andrius, hiplop
TT (3) - Magister Ludi, vezokpiraka, Nikanor
Ludi (1) - Kast

Not Voting (3) - tanstalas, zMuffinMan, ToastyToast

Review of thoughts on players:

Summary:
Ludi is still most likely CR with OS as potential buddy.
One of Andy/TT is probably mafia. If Andy is mafia, then Ludi

might

be his scum-buddy instead of CR, which leaves Vezok/OS as potential CRs
Nikanor is an idiot, but he's not likely CR. The way TT and Hiplop tried to jump on and turbolynch him was excessively scummy.

Some things we know:
N1- NPIAU was recruited
N2- IHSIB/Kdub was recruited

Andy
Cult Potential:
-N1 interactions with Tans strongly imply he cannot be CR
+Claimed active PR with no claimed protection makes him a potential N3 recruit
Other Thoughts:
-Game play has been much more passive and "follow the crowd" on the whole than previous BNMafia.
-Some interactions are suspect:
--Particularly the lynch of Mr.S & avoidance of lynching Ludi (potential link with Ludi; if Andy is mafia, Ludi might be a buddy)
-Overabundance of blocking/interference roles (Muffin, Vezok, TT) imply potential scum blocker, although if TT is mafia JK/blocker, then Andy is cleared town.
Probable Role:
Either town or mafia RB (depending on which TT is)

BB
Cult Potential:
-Claimed role and lack of other cop claims makes him unlikely to be CR (game balance/setup unlikely)
+Claimed active PR with no claimed protection makes him a potential N3 recruit
-High chance of mafia NKing him makes him less likely to be recruited
Other Thoughts:
Game play is erratic. He has some decent thoughts ideas, but other stuff that's way out there. Overall he's playing in what seems to be an earnest manner.
Probable Role:
Town Mafia-Cop

Hip
Cult Potential:
-Early D1 WL CC on Vezok makes him unlikely to be CR
-WL mod-PM reinforces this
-Unrecruitable claim makes him extremely unlikely for the N3 Recruit
Other Thoughts:
Generally low activity and when he is posting a lot of times it seems like he's not being very careful. Generally getting a lazy town read.
Probable Role:
Probable town PR of some sort, potentially a passive PR since I'd have expected him to soft claim or breadcrumb if he had a night power.

Kast
Cult Potential:
-N1 confirmed track result strongly implies he cannot be CR
-N2 VT makes recruitment unlikely
Other Thoughts:
Obv town.

Probable

Role:
Town Tracker, now VT

ML
Cult Potential:
+No N1 or N2 interactions that prevent him from being cult
+Implausible role claim under pressure along with implausible claimed

CHANGE

to his claim make him VERY unlikely to be town.
Other Thoughts:
-Lurked through D1 and D2 then only became active in D3 when he was going to be lynched.
-Strange interaction with Kdub's attempted bus when his lynch seemed inevitable, then sudden retraction after he flipped out at Kdub
--Even more suspect, Kdub continued to call him probable CR and Kdub's choice for lynch, but Kdub refused to place the actual hammer and instead let his non-preferred target be lynched instead
-Generally hasn't been active in trying to determine player alignments or help town find CR or scum; rather he just attacks the claimed WLs and/or OMGUS attacks the people who pressure him
-Opposition to mass claim is

EXTREMELY CONTRARY

to Tar's normal stance as town (in which he generally pushes for early mass claiming with the expectation that he can figure out who is lying or not),

this is mitigated since Tar dropped out

Probable Role:
Cult Recruiter or Backup Cult Recruiter

Muff
Cult Potential:
-WL Mod PM makes him unlikely to be CR
=Implication that WLs are unrecruitable makes it less likely that he was recruited; however, the WLs revealing that not all of them are unrecruitable leaves him as a potential N3 recruit
Other Thoughts:
-Been pretty reasonable on the whole and seems interested in solving the game and figuring things out. Don't agree with everything he's posted, but on the whole it gives a very pro-town feel.
--The push for stalling the game until a mass claim is finished is the main point where I'm hesitant about
Probable Role:
Very likely town JoAT as claimed

Nik
Cult Potential:
-First player to mention WL Mod PM makes him very unlikely to be CR
=Implication that WLs are unrecruitable makes it less likely that he was recruited; however, the WLs revealing that not all of them are unrecruitable leaves him as a potential N3 recruit
Other Thoughts:
-Idiotic but lucky D1 gamble resulted in lynching Toog.

Potential D1 scum bus gambit for town cred

-After that he failed a gamble on TT (which makes the Toog D1 scum bus gambit less likely and more likely Nik's just an idiot) has pretty much disappeared
-Lurky post to avoid prod/replace indicates he's something of an ass but isn't really playstyle indicative (asking to be lynched doesn't indicate affiliation)
Probable Role:
Town VI, probably has a 1xAbility similar to the flipped WLs, though potentially passive ability.

OS
Cult Potential:
+Directly implicated as Black Lantern by conf. town WLC.
+Claimed Watch/Track role doesn't directly conflict but overlaps with my Tracker and Friend's Watcher
-N1 Delay by Vezok makes him unlikely to be NPIAU's recruiter and thus unlikely to be CR
-N2 JK by TT makes him unlikely to be Kdub's recruiter and thus unlikely to be CR
Other Thoughts:
-Anger and frustration with BB seemed genuine and plausible. He was likely telling the truth OR a partial truth.
-Sudden jump to Mr.S to protect Ludi is suspect
-General buddying with all obv-town players (except BB) feels like scum (of some sort) buddying to town
-Track result on TT is odd.

Speculation: OS or Ludi failed to recruit TT last night and from that are guessing that he is lying scum (Unrecruitable DSK/Mafia/3rd Party)

-Claim of targeting CJ N1 is/was worded oddly, and may be an attempt at protecting a cult buddy
Probable Role:
He's probably Backup CR or potentially even co-CR with Ludi

Tans
Cult Potential:
-N1 Stole Power from Andy Strongly Implies he is not CR
-N2 VT makes recruitment unlikely
Other Thoughts:
-N1 and interactions with Andy on D2 mark him as probable town.
-Knowing about the VT PM makes him plausibly either the one who is stealing powers OR a genuine victim.
-Recent game play has been less involved and more under the radar. Potentially indicates recruitment (more likely if Cult thinks he is mafia responsible for vanilla-izing)
Probable Role:
Ability Thief probably started as town

TT
Cult Potential:
-N1 JK on Nik and D2 CC of Nik, especially given Nik's unclaimed but trusted-by-town status makes him unlikely to be CR
+Claimed JK ability makes him a strong candidate for N3 recruit
Other Thoughts:
-OS's claimed track result plus Vezok's claimed non-targetting of TT means someone is lying. If OS is town, then it's very likely TT is the mafia blocker
-Aside from the TT/OS thing, TT has been acting fairly pro-town and been fairly active. I was leaning prolly 70-30 Andy mafia blocker and TT town blocker. It's possible OS is just flat out lying right now to secure a mislynch, but that seems odd since a TT lynch and townflip would very likely result in OS getting lynched second.
Probable Role:
Either town or mafia Blocker (depending whether Andy is town or mafia)

Vezok
Cult Potential:
-N1 Delay on OS weakly implies he might not be CR.
-VI status and general lynch-prone playstyle would arguably make Vezok a poor recruit target (I can't imagine any CR ever wanting to recruit Vezok)
Other Thoughts:
-He's been generally useless and confused about what's going on, but that's normal for Vezok
-Potential mafia blocker/delayer; if so, he might be lying about his Delay targets (and about his ability in general).
-BB's Town result on Vezok makes it unlikely that he is mafia.
Probable Role:
Town delayer is plausible; though if we did start with a 2 man cult, then there is a possibility Andy/TT are the town and mafia blockers with Vezok as the Cult Blocker.

Kast · Fri Sep 16, 2011 2:50 am

Kast2 here.

Ludi wrote:Blocking me and Blocking Nikanor.

~~~
Unrelated to that, zmuffin, who do you think the remaining mafia here is?

(1) We have no way to tell if Toast did or did not block Nik N1. That's not a confirmed lie. We have "confirmation" that you were blocked N3. OS could be lying, or Toast could have also been blocked. Another unconfirmed lie. You treat potential lies as proof that someone is scum? Ridiculous.

Also love how you really don't give a shit about catching CR and are focused on finding mafia

Really shows us where your CR priorities are, CR.

Kast · Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:21 pm

@OS and others who apparently did not read or pay attention to the start of this game-
The probability of a backup recruiter is and has been long posited by multiple people from the beginning of this game. It's based on comments dana made in several places regarding Blackest Night Mafia and his thoughts about cults (primarily that a cults should NOT be easily killed/removed/dealt with by N1 of any game). There are several methods to deal with this, but with a double day setup, the simplest and most effective method is to allow cults to have 2+ members on D1 (either N0 recruitment or flat out starting with 2+ members).

You are and have been buddying myself and Muffin (which other than BB, rounds out the makeup of "trusted" town players). Pretty effectively I might add, until WLC's role info implicated you as Cult of some sort. On review, I realize I had you marked as more probably town a big part being due to your interactions with BB which mirrored my brother's frustration with his BB's early game ridiculous play.

And to be clear, you have NOT claimed any tracking RESULTS on Ludi. You have claimed an attempted but failed track on Ludi. Which says absolutely NOTHING about whether you actually targeted him or not.

The wording remains odd as it was before; in context it can be explained, but as directly stated, your initial claim implied that you expected some sort of action OTHER THAN an investigation result.

@BB-

Look for scum based on play, not based on roles and theories of what happened at night or who is CR because they were near last to claimincg (Why yall lynched Mera and why yall wanna lynched Ludi)

You cleared Ludi for claiming doctor. The hypocrisy in this statement alone makes the rest of your post meaningless.

Arbitrarily clearing people for ridiculous WiFOM reasons is invalid (yes saying "he's too crazy to be scum" is WiFOMy crap-logic).

YOU YOURSELF are *CLEARED* because of roles and theories about what makes a balanced setup. These are tools we have to use and they should be used ALONG WITH analyzing game play.

@Toast-
Mod pretty much confirmed that NPIAU was recruited N1 and KDUB was recruited N2. If you're assuming OS was recruited N3, it has no bearing on any of OS play regarding Nikanor prior to N3. You claim to think Ludi is more likely CR than Nikanor. Place your vote on Ludi. There's too many people saying they agree with and understand the points on Ludi but just giving him a free pass for no apparent reason. Fix your vote.

@Muffin-
You know the case on Ludi, fix your vote and let's get things going.

@Tans-
You asked if Ludi can die next, well the answer is yes. Vote him.

@Hiplop-
Are you giving Ludi a pass because there wasonly 1 death last night? The implications of that conclusion are that mafia knowingly decided to make Ludi perform the mafia kill and then he got blocked. This in turn requires that mafia choose the player who was designated as the RB/JK target for BOTH of our claimed roleblockers under TWO DIFFERENT plans. Please clarify if that is what you actually thought. Then when you realize how nonsensical that position is, return your vote to Ludi. Obv-CR is obv-CR.

@Nikanor-
Why would OS as the backup-CR claim a false investigation result on Toasty as the main CR?
If we lynched Toasty and he flipped CR, then it would show that OS is lying about Toasty not targeting anyone (or mean that Andy is lying about his target AND Ludi is lying about getting blocked). That just doesn't work.

Ludi is the CR with OS backup. Move your vote. Let's lynch the CR.

@Andy-
You're setting up a ridiculous strawman. Your ENTIRE game play (not

just

[i/]

your following Nik's fake cop claim D1 Lynch 1) has been follow the crowd instead of trying to figure things out for yourself. You weren't helpful in BNM because you were a cop. You were helpful because you tried to solve the game and figure out what was going on (and you were mostly successful at it).

I've read Ludi and CJ many times. All he's done of note is attack WLs at every turn. Heavily buddy you after you told everyone that Saint Walker (aka CJ's fake claim) is definitely a townie. Attack mass claiming. Attack the claimed WLs some more. Completely abandon his supposed target to focus on the only competing wagon (with no reasoning other than OMGUS). Tell a confirmed Black Recruit to not hammer him (and the recruit *LISTENED TO HIM*). Attempt a bullshit OMGUS wagon on Kast. When called on the idiocy of claiming Kast as CR, change his position to call Kast a mafioso (which he previously claimed was horrendously anti-town to search for).

And that's just his game play; adding in his implausible claim & implausible CHANGE to his claim & anti-town Night action choices leaves pretty much no room for anything but CR. Are you scared that lynching CR will mean town switches to focus on mafia next (namely you)?

There's a reason I asked you your thoughts on Ludi, and though you dodged the question, your defense of Ludi makes your real intent clear. Ludi lynch now. After he flips CR, we look to Andy.

Kast · Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:33 pm

@Nikanor-
Vezok might be lying or an idiot and might have actually delayed Toast's JK.

OS might be backup CR with Ludi. If so, he has all sorts of incentive to GET A MISLYNCH by LYING about Toast and thus stopping Ludi from getting JKed AGAIN.

Ludi/OS Cult team fits with EVERYTHING that's happened so far. All other posited scenarios have holes or implausible streches somewhere or other.

Move your vote. We have 5 who have already stated explicitly that Ludi is their top suspect for CR but didn't vote since apparently they all think there's no support for a Ludi lynch. This is exactly the kind of martyr syndrome that my brother was worried about when he replaced into this game.

Vote people.

Kast · Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:33 pm

@Toast-
You're stalled out. Move your vote. Defending yourself isn't getting us any closer to lynching the CR.

Kast · Fri Sep 16, 2011 12:34 pm

@Nik-
Share your thoughts on Ludi as CR with OS as backup CR.

Kast · Sat Sep 17, 2011 5:11 pm

Muffin wrote:You know what's still bugging me? That indigo light.

Agreed. We know for certain from kdub's flip where both of his two kills went (one of the two N1 kills, plus his claimed N2 kill). This doesn't explain the indigo light or the day kill. As far as I can tell, we also have a day killer that made at least two shots (one failed one succeeded).

Kast · Sun Sep 18, 2011 3:55 pm

OS: That makes NO sense if you're town. You claim to

know

that Toasty is JK, based on JKing you. If Toasty is JK, then Nik cannot be CR. If we assume you are town and telling the truth, then only Ludi can be CR.

Kast · Sun Sep 18, 2011 3:57 pm

I'm starting to agree with my brother's conclusion; OS is probably Ludi's recruit. He probably called the null result on Toasty in order to get the town-JK mislynched so that Toasty can't block Ludi again.

Kast · Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:23 am

@Tans-

Tans wrote:Unless a watcher watched me and scum have daytalk

How does this make any sense? Our result was that you targeted Andy, so someone watching you wouldn't see anything.

Tans wrote:
Kast couldn't have known I visited andy
. Unless andy is scum roleblocker and told kast he was going to rb me night one.

So if andy is scum so is kast.

You nailed it with the

first part

. The second part doesn't explain the first part.

Also, you avoided my point/question/direct address to you. If you genuinely suspect Ludi, then fix your vote.

Also, I'm curious why you completely ignore several potential explanations for multiple power loses on N2, yet act as if that is all that concerns you. If you have private information that lets you automatically dismiss and ignore possibilities you know aren't true, then share and explain.

@Ludi-

Ludi wrote:Kdub almost hammered me, was a recruit yesterday, and people still think I am the cult recruiter. I don't get it.

This is a lie.

KDUB REFUSED TO HAMMER YOU WHILE CLAIMING HE WANTED YOUR LYNCH

You repeatedly say this lie despite all the actual posts being linked to and/or quoted. You are also "conveniently" leaving out the fact that as soon as Kdub placed his bus L-1 vote, you told him to remove his vote and he immediately obeyed your command.

It's funny how your Hiplop suspicion suddenly revived as soon as Hiplop voted you again.

Also, I still haven't heard anything of your "case" for why Kast is mafia other than "Kast is voting me and holding me responsible for what I actually posted".

@Muffin-
When mods were asked about whether NPIAU could have been recruited on the same night he was killed, instead of the usual "I can't answer" mods actually gave an indirect answer and linked directly to the NAR list that explicitly shows recruiting occurs after killing. The deviation from standard "I can't answer" response to most questions pretty clearly signals what happened. Additionally, both NPIAU and Kdub were recruits and did not start as Black Lanterns; so neither of them could have been a back-up CR. The possibility of an N0 recruit exists, but it doesn't really fit with NPIAU or Kdub's posts or behavior. Further, it would mean the mod "answer" was a direct involvement red herring which seems extremely unlikely and inappropriate behavior for a mod (I don't see it as at all plausible that mod would answer with a misleading answer and actively help one faction instead of simply refusing to answer). Also given we have 2 flipped PGOs, a secret N0 is extremely unlikely.

@OS as a recruit-
My brother is wrong about my theory there. OS can't be a recruit, but he is very probably backup CR for Ludi.

@OS-
The JADE ANDY TANS breadcrumb was already explained. Role/character name is Jade. Our investigation result was that our target visited Andy. Our target was Tans. This was also crumbed several times, both linked to the original crumb and independently

Separate thought though, if you honestly believe that Ludi is Nikanor's recruit, then Ludi flipping recruit first shouldn't be a problem for you and would tell us a lot.
-Ludi flipping recruit means he was recruited last night
-This confirms for everyone that you are telling the truth about TT not JKing anyone last night
-Since you personally know TT actually has JKing from N2, then this means someone else delayed or RBed TT
-BB's innocent result on Vezok implies that Vezok is telling the truth about not delaying TT
--That leaves either Andy (prob scum) lying about blocking Ludi or an unclaimed RB/JK ability

Kast · Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:27 am

@Vezok-
OS is probably backup CR with Ludi. Please move your vote and help us lynch Ludi.

@Tans-
Just so it doesn't get lost again.

Please clarify if you actually suspect Ludi as CR or not, and if you do suspect him, then move your vote accordingly.

Kast · Mon Sep 19, 2011 9:50 am

@OS-
To be clear, you are now ignoring all pretense and just going for flat out protecting your CR. It's funny how you stopped trying to buddy me as soon as I pointed it out.

Also to be clear, you are completely abandoning your prior position now that Ludi is actually in danger of lynch.

Probably going to go with Andrius targetted Ludi and violated his own plan of action which makes absolutely no sense because Andrius supported Ludi yesterday. I think we just found the CR and his recruit, guys.

Kast · Mon Sep 19, 2011 2:54 pm

@Ludi-
Using large font doesn't make your lie any more true.

Kdub EXPLICITLY states that he just finished reading the recent pages IN THE EXACT SAME POST where he votes. Further IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING his vote he states he will check back in later. OBVIOUSLY he knew it wasn't a hammer.

To be clear THIS is the BS you keep claiming:
Ludi's Assumption: A cult recruit would NEVER place a hammer vote on his cult recruiter
-Kdub placed a hammer vote on Ludi (or for whatever reason Ludi is convinced that Kdub thought his vote was a hammer)
-Kdub is a confirmed cult recruit
>>Kdub cannot be Ludi's cult recruit

The reason it is BS is:
-Kdub did NOT place a hammer vote on his cult recruiter
-Kdub KNEW it was not a hammer vote and SAID SO

Ludi wrote:So you're assuming we have daytalk (planning in the middle of the day, actually, hello slip because I didn't know cult had daytalk), and that I wouldn't alert him to the fact that I was at very low lynch number, so he could put a potential hammering vote on myself?

Ludi, you did the day talk IN THREAD. You and Kdub both knew you were at L-1 and you got upset and

TOLD HIM TO MOVE HIS L-1 VOTE

. Then your recruit listened to his boss and

MOVED HIS VOTE

while at the same time

STATING THAT YOU ARE STILL HIS LYNCH CHOICE AND HE INTENDS TO REVOTE

.

In post 2600, Kdub wrote:VOTE: Magister Ludi

I'll be back later tonight.

In post 2614, Magister Ludi wrote:
I am at L-1

In post 2616, Magister Ludi wrote:Kdub, unvote, please.

In post 2632, Kdub wrote:UNVOTE:

We still have time and we should try to figure out a plan. Once we do, I'll put my vote back on unless an argument for a better lynch candidate surfaces.

@OS-

Spoiler: Revisionist defenses are so annoying.

More like I stopped buddying you and you are now pushing me.

Check your isos again. I've pushed you as backup CR since our confirmed townie revealed info from his ROLE PM that said YOU ARE A BLACK LANTERN. You tried buddying to get me to drop it and I called you on it. You only "stopped buddying" AFTER I explicitly stated that your buddying is scummy; at which point you joined Ludi's OMGUS and claimed Kast is suddenly rising in your suspicion.

I've been going after Ludi since yesterday; notice who was pushing for Ludi's lynch and against Subliminal's lynch yesterday (hint it was Subliminal, Kast, and Muffin, the three townies who are actually trying to figure things out instead of playing by emotions (BB/Nik) or just sheeping (Tans/Vezok)). Ludi is the obvious CR; this remains as true now as before.

Spoiler: Repeating lies does not make them true. You and Ludi seem to have the same mindset

You obviously have motive for lying about TT; Ludi is going to be lynched. If TT actually JKed Ludi and stopped the recruit last night, then cult is likely down to 2 members. Ludi being lynched would drop cult down to just yourself. TT or Andy would pretty obviously JK or RB you as the pretty damn certain last cult member. You only have a shot anymore if you can swing mislynches of people other than Ludi (ie. your Nikanor and TT schemes).

I could give a whole bunch of half baked reasons why you are mafia

And can you give any full baked reasons for why I am mafia? Your post is overflowing with lulz.

Spoiler: Did you just decide to start slinging crap and hoping something sticks?

And if I was the CR backup and Ludi is my CR why wouldn't I buss the shit out of Ludi especially after yesterday?

Seeing as Cult almost certainly loses if we lynch the CR AND the backup CR, then I would think it obvious why you would avoid doing something that directly would lead to your loss.

If I was regular recruitee why wouldn't I be joining Ludi on the Toasty wagon especially with a claim that could have damned him?

Straw man.

Kast does not want to lynch Nikanor because that would directly implicate Hiplop and shred Mafia's last chance at winning the game. THe problem? White Lanterns.

Are you reading what you're posting? Subliminal and Muffin are vouching for Hiplop as a WL. How does anything I've posted relate to Nikanor clearing Hiplop (or anything clearing Hiplop for that matter)?

Due to the duality of the roles in this game
Hiplop is likely the Dayvig,

WTF?! Are you even trying? Hiplop is town or hiplop is mafia? Make up your mind.

I think he reversed it so as to cut ties when scum Andy flips scum. Problems?

Ok, how do you explain the three additional breadcrumbs that all indicated a track result of Tans targeting Andy? That right there is a bigger problem than "My word against his"

Toasty has claimed to have blocked him the first night, and Toasty isn't lieing about his ability

How do you explain Toasty's lack of JK despite you yourself knowing TT is a JKer? Are you claiming Andy roleblocked TT? Why would Andy lie about blocking Ludi; unless he was recruited by Ludi last night? Your story doesn't hold up.

Scum have 6 members. 3 red and 3 yellow. We already have Atrocitus, and 2 yellow, but no Sinestro. Sinestro is going to be in this game. Vanillalizer (paralyzing fear) makes sense for Sinestro (Kast *was* yellow mafia last game, and Tans was given the same role he had, so not entirely inconceivable), plus the other 2 Red scum members. Problems? major flavor guessing and outguessing the mod

Other problems, mods already confirmed they assigned roles randomly, so odds of Kast getting Sinestro AGAIN are extremely low (not to mention others who played in both games and flipped have not been the same roles as before...plus it would just be idiotic game design). Aside from that, a 6 man scum team (+/-1) is fairly likely and has been posited for quite some time...padding your post with IIoA?

Tans, if everything goes to plan, Kast can wait until tomorrow.
Nikanor and Ludi, the CR and the Cultee can die today.

Here is where you show your true colors once again. If you honestly think our lynches today should be used on Nikanor and Ludi, then there's absolutely zero reason for your strong opposition to lynching Ludi first and Nikanor second.
-In your scenario, Ludi flips recruit, it confirms that you are right about TT getting somehow blocked, and combined with your knowledge that TT is really a JK, you've narrowed down CR to someone who has no confirmed night actions (Nik/Hiplop/Vezok/Muffin), which almost certainly would mean Nikanor hangs. Your refusal to go with this shows you aren't honest about a Ludi lynch. You just want to mislynch a WL. If Nik got lynched and flipped WL, you'd likely go back to claiming Toast as cult recruit or some crap like that

again

.

Btw, have you taken a look at your own iso? The buddying is so thick it's stifling. You started this day buddying my and following to the Ludi wagon with hopes that I'd reciprocate your buddying and give you a free pass to endgame. Seriously man, pleading for me to not suspect you and asking my opinion on how to proceed with everything was kinda disgusting. Abandoning your "TT is a recruit" chain of thought immediately when my brother pointed out your hypocrisy in doing so

@Peregrine motivating Kast-
Peregrine targeting Kast is a reasonable supposition; but there are two problems. First, Peregrine did state agreement with my brother's posts and trust of my slot. However, as he posted in his notes before D2 ended, he didn't pick up on my brother's Tracker claim. That's the problem with piggybacking the guy who wasn't really reading the first half of the game; BB didn't notice that Peregrine

didn't realize

Kast had claimed tracker. Actually BB was one of the ONLY PEOPLE who realized my brother's Tracker soft claim (probably since my brother stated intent to TRACK BB).
Second, and pretty damn definitive, Vezok delayed me on N2, so that blows the whole Kast vanilla'd Tans/WLC on N2 out of the water.

@Nik-
Less stalling, more voting. If you have an actual question for Ludi, then ask it directly, otherwise vote and let's move on.

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:08 am

@Mod-

Is it intentional that NPIAU's 1-Shot BP has a strike through but Kdub's 1-Shot PGO does not have a strike through (or is that just a result of different mods writing the death scenes)?

In post 0, The Book of Oa wrote:-
nopointinactingup,
Hawkman
(1-Shot BP
Lover-Mason)

, member of the
Justice League
, member of the
Black Lantern Corps
, committed suicide Night 2.
-
inHimshallibe

Kdub,
Guy Gardner (1-Shot PGO Vigilante)
,
member of the
Green Lantern Corps
member of the
Black Lantern Corps
, died Night 3.

@OS-
As far as lynching Ludi first and you second or you first and Ludi second; either way is acceptable, however there is support for a Ludi lynch and not enough support for your lynch. It's not at all a parallel situation to yours (nice try asking me to give you a defense you could parrot

). For that matter, your claim to want Ludi lynched after Nikanor flips CR makes no sense except as the empty throwaway post it is. If you genuinely believed that Nik is CR and Ludi is his last recruit, then a Nik lynch would effectively neuter the cult and you

should

move on to focus on scum. The fact you

claim

to still suspect Ludi and

claim

he should be lynched after is an obvious slip admitting you know he is cult but you aren't thinking about things from a town perspective.

PEDIT-
@Andy-
You are already voting Nikanor. No surprise that you won't lynch obv CR Ludi. Btw, the tone of your post indicates you don't really care which is lynched, which is inconsistent with your insistence on voting Nikanor over Ludi. Also, you missed the request from Vezok and BB.

@Vezok/BB-
Nice try, but at the moment scum don't want to lynch CR. This is pretty clear from Andy waffling about lynching Ludi but ultimately refusing to place a vote. Scum knows if we lynch CR today, then they come under the axe tomorrow (or potentially even second lynch today).

Btw, this raises further evidence that Ludi is CR; if he wasn't CR then CR plus any cultee should and could have easily jumped aboard and lynched him (for that matter, Kdub would have had ZERO REASON to not hammer and TONS of reason to eliminate a claimed ROLE COP who could investigate/out the recruiter). Mafia too should have no reason to avoid a Ludi lynch (again a claimed town ROLE COP is a threat to both mafia AND cult). The only explanation for mafia avoiding a Ludi mislynch is if they believe it is

NOT

a mislynch. If mafia know that Ludi is CR (which is likely given Andy's reactions), they're going to leave him alive for a later lynch while knowing he isn't actually a role cop.

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 8:11 am

@Mod-

Also, prods on Nik and Tans please (and anyone else due for one).

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 1:51 pm

@Ludi-
Thanks for being a dear and revealing. You're right that Tar's Orange role change claim was complete bollocks and that alone was enough to screw your slot.

However, your claim that your death triggers WLs but that all your recruits flip with you doesn't match up with Sub's WL claim. If all your recruits die with you, then his claimed WL power is absolutely useless.

@OS-
Was going to respond to the horridly formatted BS you posted, but if you're mod-dying with the CR, then no need for that. You're forgiven.

@Mod-

Death scene please. Also can we start voting now for lynch 2?

VOTE: Andy
^This is scum. Sorry man, the hammer doesn't clear you.

Probable buddy:
-Vezok (would need to be GF via BB's investigation), this is also supported by his reluctance to lynch Ludi (pretty obv. following Andy's lead).

Depending whether WLs are DEFINITELY confirmed or whether they're potential mafia:
-If WLs can be mafia, then Nikanor's "guity" on Toog was likely an early game-bus. In that case, it's entirely possible he was telling the truth about vanillizing on N2 (and it explains no vanilla on N1 and N3 since TT blocked him N1 and Vezok delayed him N3)
-If WLs cannot be mafia, then it's pretty much got to be Tans (in a sense this fits with his flavor and also is the only possible thing I can see making any sense regarding his nonsensical comments earlier today).

Btw- If OS doesn't get modkilled, then he gets lynched now. There's no need at all to risk the backup recruiter becoming active (given Ludi is clearly lying about some parts of his claim, I'm dubious that OS will actually be modkilled).

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 1:53 pm

@Tans-
Your claim that I'm vanillizer ignores that Vezok delayed me on N2. How could I have vanillized anyone if I was delayed?

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 1:54 pm

Btw, Vezok delaying claimed Tracker was pretty scummy.

Kast · Tue Sep 20, 2011 2:37 pm

@OS-
You either need your eyes checked or reading lessons. Your post makes absolutely no sense whatsoever.

You can stop whining; you've already been caught and outed. You deserve some props for keeping Ludi alive yesterday, but a huge part of that temporary win was due to Andy, Tans, and Vezok switching over and helping cult (thereby buying themselves some time).

Andy/Vezok were pretty instrumental in that lynch. Tans is less clear. He

might

be confused town going with the flow from Andy/Vezok/OS suddenly protecting Ludi.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:26 am

Since mod didn't count it:
VOTE: Andy

We're lynching Andy today. This time town's not going to screw around again with an obv-lynch-win right in front of us. It's kinda pathetic that we needed OS to essentially self hammer for that.

@Muffin-
If you've got an ability to stop multiple players/the entire scum team, then great. If you can hit three players, go ahead and block me, Tans, and Nik since whoever the power stealer is, it's almost definitely one of us three.

Btw, if any of the WLs have gained an anti-cult power (e.g. something similar to Subliminal's "cure black recruits") let us know since that could mean we have 1 recruit floating around.

@Blackberry-
And you *personally* thought that Ludi MUST be "doctor" and OS couldn't be his backup. Guess your scumdar was majorly flawed.

With OS flipped cult JoAT and Ludi flipped NON-DOC, it pretty much clears Toast's JK as our effective protection role (quite possibly combined with 1+ BPs, 1+ commuters). As stated from before Ludi's flip, this game DIDN'T need a doc role. There could potentially be a hider or bodyguard role...but doc really didn't fit. Also, with OS's fake Track/Watch claim, town investigation roles make more sense (Regular Cult-Cop, Mafia-Cop, and Tracker, with 1x Watcher mason). Hider as potential weak-cop/self protection ability could have fit, but a full out Tracker/Watcher was dubious.

Also, in the event that drill sergeant was a super motivator (multishot), I seriously doubt it would allow scum to 3x nightkill (or cult to 3x recruiting), and likely would be limited to a player's personal abilities rather than factional things (ie. this would likely work along the same lines as Tans claimed ability thief).

@Other Thoughts-
In terms of night actions, it seems unlikely that Tans would simply ability thief Andy on N1 if he were capable of vanillizing. Here I'd go with Muffin's analysis of Nik's reaction to the WL PM; does Nik's reaction make it at all plausible that he could be a scum WL (ie. Sinestro)? Because despite Tans being an idiot, the claimed night actions fit best with Nik as vanillizer and Tans just being an idiot.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:27 am

Dang, you guys posted a lot while I was writing up my post. Morning people...

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:41 am

@Muffin/BB-
>_>

Lynch today is obv. We lynch Andy.

BB is town, balance says we

need

a regular cop (flavor or color cop could also have fit). Muffin leave that one alone please, you've done the role analysis and you should see this as well.

Scum can prolly still vanillize, but there's no way there's 2 scum blockers. MY preference is for Toast to block Nik with BB investigating Tans to confirm if he's legit. Muffin can do his RB or whatever on me (or hell, since it seems BB/Tans are the only ones pushing the "Kast is nillizer" BS, then BB can investigate me).

Gonna think a bit and formalize a plan for tonight.

@Muffin-
So it doesn't get lost:
Is Nik's reaction consistent with being Sinestro, mafia aligned WL?

It would probably mean he

did

get the WL PM, but he wouldn't be conf. town. It would also explain his D1 "gambit" with Toog. To add to this, Andy and I played in a large before this where scum very effectively "day vigged" one of their own teammates on D1 and then just played VI/lurky the rest of the game and coasted to a win based on the D1 scum lynch credit. Wouldn't be the least bit surprised if Nik's gambit was a suggestion by Andy.

@Hiplop/Nik claiming-
If you have anti-cult powers, then please claim. If you don't, then claim if your WL power makes sense to claim.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:05 am

Also left out one more thought:
OS's claim that TT went nowhere is obv. a claim to have JoAT RBed TT. I'm inclined to think Andy was telling the truth about his

FIRST

RB target but changed his claim to protect obv-Cult Recruiter Ludi. Block on Kdub would also explain why there was only one death last night.

Claimed Roles (Useful > Useless):
ToastyToast - JK
zMuffinMan - RB (multi-block?)
vezokpiraka - Delay
Blackberry - Mafia Cop
Kast -

Tracker

Vanilla
tanstalas -

Ability Thief

Vanilla

Unclaimed:
hiplop - Unrecruitable
Nikanor - BP (of sorts)

We've got 3 claimed block/delay abilities of sorts. At worst, 1 of them is scum controlled (Vezok). 2 Proposals, depending whether Muffin can multiblock.
Proposal 1 (Muffin cannot multiblock)
Toast JKs Nikanor
Vezok delays Kast or Tans (his choice)
Muffin blocks Kast or Tans (whichever Vezok doesn't delay)
BB can investigate either Kast or Tans

Proposal 2 (Muffin can multiblock)
Toast JKs Nikanor
Vezok delays Kast or Tans (his choice)
Muffin blocks Vezok and Tans (and Kast if it's triple blocking)
BB investigates either Kast or Tans

It doesn't completely cover our bases, but gut says TT on Nik will stop the vanilla.

Also note, with 9 players alive, if there's 3 mafia, then we can only mess up once. We lynch Andy now, that's 6T/2M. Tonight mafia kills one person, 5T/2M. Tomorrow if we miss twice, it's down to 3T/2M which goes to 2T/2M the following day for a game loss. Preferably BB can find scum or at least clear a townie.

My guess for the remaining scum team says it's:
Andy (RB)
Vezok (GF, Delay claim might be legit or might be part of his fake claim)
Nik (Vanillizer, WL)

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 5:20 am

@Muffin-

WL abilities gained were pre-determined, so not sure what you mean by this.

I know. My point is that Subliminal's claim implies there could be cult recruits AFTER the white rings come into play. Which means Ludi was LYING when he claimed ALL his recruits die with him. Since it looks like Ludi's death pretty clearly triggered the WL rings, but some of the WL abilities are anti-cult, then there might be cult recruits hanging around. And actually, if there is, then it's probably just a single recruit from last night (meaning OS blocked TT and Andy lied about blocking Ludi).

It would mean that Sinestro would be the only scum player to get a WL fake-claim

Actually it would mean Sinestro actuallt IS a WL. Because from flavor he actually WAS a WL. It would also mean Toog's D1 lynch was a planned gambit.

Link to Andy's post raging about how effective the gambit was (essentially town lost the game because everyone except for Andy trusted the "day-vig" couldn't be mafia and wouldn't sacrifice a mafia PR so early in D1 for no reason.
http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 6#p3021556

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 9:19 am

@BB-
Wth is with you and insisting there is a doctor O_o?

If OS was anything "before" he was culted, then it should show up in his flip. It didn't. Ludi wasn't being completely honest with his claim (no surprise there).

@Muffin-
Plan sounds good.

To be clear, the major drawback I see with the plan is the possibility of Vezok-GF

(though if BB or Hiplop is mafia, then that is also a drawback...but if any WL is mafia, Nik fits much better)

. If so, he could potentially divert from plan and screw with town (if he is GF, then his delayer claim could be true or could be part of a fake claim).

I'm willing to take that risk.

@Toast-
PLEASE let's not screw around. If you are saying you refuse to JK Nikanor, then please say so and we will figure out an alternative plan that covers all bases (or as best as possible covers bases).

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 3:46 pm

@Mod-

Lynch scene please.

Also, assuming people stick to the plan, it

prolly

shouldn't matter whether Nikanor gets a replacement or not...(though I suppose acknowledging this would be tantamount to clearing TT...although he's already pretty much cleared by Andy's claim).

@Andy-
Thanks for claiming, really no sense in dragging things out. Can't be town every game. Sorry you felt cheated, but keep in mind that your buddies got themselves lynched very early by playing horrible scum games. You did a decent job keeping Ludi alive and mislynching towns, but to be fair, you only survived as long as you did because you were obv-mafia and we needed to lynch the CR. Btw really your scum game is way different from your town game.

@BB-
Vezok is prob scum. His claim and claimed actions are unverified and nonsensical for town. It's a pretty standard situation with Kast and Vezok: determining if Player A or Player B is mafia. Player B claims an action that means Player A is not mafia. Player B is the mafia in this situation. Unless you're positing Kast/Vezok scum team (which I haven't seen/heard yet and is ridiculous), then Vezok's claimed N2 action clears me.

Andy's RB is confirmed via Tans. Toast's JK is confirmed via Nik/OS. While it's possible (probable) one of Nik/Tans is mafia, OS's claim of being blocked N2 has to be true given OS was trying to blend with town at the time.

Tans is probably town; but Tans-town pretty much means Nik mafia and Muffin doesn't think that's possible.

If there is a doc among the WLs, there's no value in fishing for him.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:12 pm

From BNM, Sinestro was an OP Inv-Immune, Redirector, Roleblocker and Vice was a Framer.

Given Andy is pretty much mafia Roleblocker, and I doubt mafia would get two roleblockers on the same team; Sinestro (assuming he is present) would probably not be a roleblocker, but would likely have some kind of redirection and/or the vanillize ability. My money would be on Sinestro as WL with Power Stealing (probably flavored as terrorizing the person), and gaining some kind of anti-cult WL power. Also, given that Toog/Atrocitus flipped non-Inv. Immune, it's quite possible that mods went away from "flavor scum leader must be GF".

Vice could really be anything. Or it could be a different Red Lantern altogether. I'd actually guess if any Red Lantern members are present, it would probably be Bleez. Though that again leaves lots of possibilities for powers (Bleez was a Goon in BNM).

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:26 pm

@Muffin-
Your implication seems to be that you'd block BB instead of me. If you aren't blocking me, Vezok is the way to go. If BB is scum, then his "clear" on Vezok is meaningless. But I really doubt he's mafia; Tracker + 1x Watcher + Cult Cop + your JoAT Watcher doesn't add up to enough investigation power for town. Even with OS's fake claim of Track/Watch, town could still do with more information roles.

But it's prolly best to just stick with plans as they are.

@BB-
It's hard to keep track because your apparent ADD keeps kicking in and flipping around your suspect list; but your seeming reason for Kast as mafia would be "I think Tans must be town so Kast must have vanilla'd him N2". So UNLESS you think Vezok AND Kast are the remaining mafia (which you STILL haven't claimed), then it's impossible for me to be the vanillizer. If you have another case/theory/reason for me as mafia (maybe because the cult JoAT who I single handedly outed OMGUSed me?), I'm all ears.

There's no way scum have a RB AND a JK on their team. If that's what you're claiming, then...just no.

-Toast counter-claimed a JK on Nikanor. This is SUICIDE for scum ESPECIALLY given Nikanor had claimed cop. Nikanor backing down and admitting he had no night investigation

IS

confirmation of TT.
-OS claiming no night action on N2

IS

confirmation of Toast's JK on OS. Andy

claimed

a RB on a flipped townie and unclaimed townie. He OBVIOUSLY blocked Sub. It would have been suicide for scum-Andy to make that claim otherwise.

PEDIT @Muffin-
If you can watch BB AND block Vezok, that would be super (or block me or whatever).

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:29 pm

EBWOP- (which you STILL haven't clarified)*

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:37 pm

@Muffin-
I seriously doubt BB is mafia. However,

IF

Andy blocked Kdub on N3, then I could see Ludi being ballsy and claiming his actual final recruit (BB). That

might

explain BB's obstinacy; but if BB is solitary recruit, then we don't need to lynch him because he can't win as a single man faction without a night kill. It could have been a gambit by Ludi to keep BB from getting lynched (name him and let town WIFOM it up).

I'm not sure what watching BB gains you though...if your suspicion is right and BB is mafia, then he does the team kill plus any other ability he might have and you're none the wiser. If you think BB is going to be NKed, then announcing a watch on him pretty much nixes that (unless Vezok is mafia Delayer GF, then he could delay you kill BB or anyone really...).

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:45 pm

Dunno, BNM had mafia couldn't do night actions AND kill on the same night UNLESS they were the only mafia left alive. You might be right.

Also, forgot this, but I'd guess Sinestro is prolly Uncultable like Atrocitus.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:57 pm

@Muffin-
Another possibility given your watch, you could watch Tans, Vezok would have to Delay Tans (this kills 2 birds since Tans can be cleared as taking no actions and you can clear Vezok.

BB can investigate me. The danger is it leaves BB open to kill (or less likely to be killed). But I'm willing to take that risk (your watch plan does the same risk). With Vezok delaying Tans and Toast JKing Nikanor, that's means none of the probable scum

should

be able to kill, so if BB dies, then lynch me (again things can be switched between Kast and Tans if that's preferred). If you die, then BB should have a clear on me and we lynch Vezok.

Kast · Wed Sep 21, 2011 4:59 pm

Anyway dinner later guys. I'm not sure if that's better than your plan you just proposed.

Ultimately, I think Toast and Vezok's targets are set, so you and BB just need to figure out how you want to do things.

Toast -JK-> Nikanor
Vezok -Delay-> Tans

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 8:22 am

Kast 2 here.

I discussed with Kast the mod's indication on flavor, and the possibility of a 3 man cult etc.

The most likely case is that this is flavor leading toward a Brightest Day Mafia, Part 2 game. First, from balance point of view, a 3 man cult that also night recruits is way too broken.

Second, we know that Ludi could only recruit nights 1 and 2, since we have two (Toasty AND Andrius) claimed blocks on Ludi. Even if Andy was lying, Toasty was not.

It is possible that mod pre-wrote some of the death scenes and flavor, and that there is a game mechanic for a recruit to inherit the CR recruiting ability, but it is nearly impossible for there to be a recruit due to all the blocking shenanigans. The only possibility I can see is if Andy blocked Toast instead of Ludi, and that Ludi recrutied night 3, in which case we have one recruit who may have inherited the recruiting ability.

Specifically at BB: the flavor for the night kill indicates it may be black, or it may be something faking black. I am guessing that the remaining mafia player(s) would try to push for there being a cult recruiter.

Toasty, please don't post whether or not you were able to successfully block Nikanor last night. I think Nik is the most suspicious player at this time. His refusal to claim or post much throughout the game, and his strong push for mislynches yesterday instead of taking out the obvCR is similar to what Andy was trying; distract the town from lynching CR so that we would spend more time on mislynches and wouldn't shift gears to killing mafia.

Killjoy, I would like a claim from you. Did you use your cool new ability last night?

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:07 am

killjoy: here's a summary of claims. BB can confirm or catch anything I missed.

Kast - Jade - Green -

Tracker

- Tracked Tans N1, Vanilla'd N2
Blackberry - Soranik Natu - Green - Mafia Cop - Investigated Frozen N1, Muffin N2, Vezok N3, ?Kast? N4
hiplop - ??? - White - Unrecruitable + OP WL Power
ToastyToast - Star Sapphire - Violet -

Jailkeeper

- JK'ed Nik N1, OS N2, Ludi N3, ? Vanilla'd N4
vezokpiraka - Ice - Justice League - Delayer - OS N1, Kast N2, ??? N3, ??? N4
tanstalas - Larfleeze - Orange -

Power Stealer

- Stole Andy's power N1, Vanilla'd N2
Killjoy - ??? - White - Bulletproof + Lie detector - ???

Killjoy: If you think it is balanced for cult to start with 3 and also recruit at night, you're welcome to your own delusions. I don't think it's pretentious; I think it's the only sensible conclusion. Considering we pretty much single handed-ly forced the lynch on Ludi CR, I think this is justified.

I agree with BB's plan; I think we should test Tans. I don't think there is any likelihood of Toasty being mafia considering his claims. I would rather test the lie detection on Nik, but since it's his claim...

Also @BB: The only possible way for us to be mafia is if vezok and I are both mafia. Vezok claimed delay on us night 2. This would also require that collectively, Vezok and I are both godfathers with tracking ability and can both vanilla and kill and bypass roleblocks. That's too fantastical. More likely, Vezok is lying about delaying and is scum. Note who

wasn't

voting for Ludi or OS when we lynched them.

BTW BB, Ludi claimed you are town based on OS, but he also claimed OS blocked Toasty (to make the fake tracker result), and whether Toasty is mafia or town, he blocked OS on N2, so I don't see how he could have investigated you. My guess is:

N1 OS killed Mastin, but was delayed by Vezok, so the kill happened D2
N2 OS was blocked by Toasty.
N3 OS blocked Toasty.

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:08 am

Killjoy: are your results posted in thread, or do you receive them directly? Do you have to post your investigation in thread, or is that PM to the mod?

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 9:17 am

Also, can you catch all/multiple lies within a post, or only one? I haven't played with a lie detector before; I imagine we can get more useful information with more modal statements including role claims as well.

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 12:58 pm

This is real Kast.

Lie detector is an interesting claim. Obviously you need to share your results BEFORE the first lynch. More thoughts on this below but since it shouldn't hurt:
I am a townie. I am not mafia. I am not cult.

@Toast's Vanilla Claim-

Muffin wrote:I block Kast
You check tans
Toast->Nikanor
Vezok->Tans

Given Muffin's last post, that

should

be a clear on me. With Toast getting nillized, it's most likely Nik/KJ, unless both Vezok AND Tans are mafia together. (There also exists the possibility of BB or Hiplop, but both seem less likely especially given play and claims).

@KJ's Claim-
Firstly, your claim is not complete. Nikanor claimed bulletproof "with stipulations".

-Lie detector abilities are always questionable since most statements have subjective elements. They're also often misused or misleading since townies often make mistakes.
--Does your lie detector ability work with subjective statements?
--Does your lie detector ability work with complex statements (if possible, we should attempt to confirm multiple people)?
--Does your lie detector ability work with false statements that the target believes are true (ie. cop investigates GF and thus believes that the GF is town)?

-The possibility of a GF screwing with results and that you didn't consider that is a bit wtf?
--While a GF investigation immunity often works against a lie detector when checking straight up statements (ie. I am town, I am mafia, etc.), it often does NOT hold up for specifics like action claims, etc. Check with mod please.
--Have you considered possible questions to trick or get around GF ability?

Another point against a

day

lie detector claim is the lack of results from yesterday. This is somewhat mitigated since Nikanor got replaced for inactivity.

Given Nikanor is most likely candidate for vanillizer, the sudden 1-shot investigative claim out of the blue is seemingly the perfect claim for turning a lynch into a 1-for-1 trade. Also, given that Nik claimed 1-shot, then ideally he uses his power first, we lynch him, then depending on his flip follow his result or not.
-Best scenario he flips mafia so we ignore his results.
-Next best, he has a guilty so we lynch the guilty.
-Worst case, he has an innocent result (which may be prone to investigation immunity).

@BB-
Is there a reason you investigated Kast despite objecting to it in your final post of yesterday AND Muffin telling you to check Tans?
If you're going to assume your investigation result is false no matter what result you get, then why bother? (ie. you assumed you were redirected when you got inno on Muffin, you assumed you hit GF when you got inno on Vezok, you assume you got redirected OR hit GF when you got inno on Kast)

@Cult Flavor in Mod Scenes-
My brother didn't quite get my thoughts on it; he's right that I doubt there are any cult left. If there ARE any cult remaining, then I would guess BB was recruited by Ludi on N3. OS almost definitely blocked Toast; his "no action" claim was pretty obviously a cover for a JoAT roleblock. However, it's unclear whether Andy really blocked Ludi or not. Andy might have been genuinely telling the truth about blocking Kdub and his later claim to have blocked Ludi might have been an attempt to protect Ludi and push off the CR lynch until later. I'm leaning against that possibility since mafia should know whether Andy actually blocked Ludi or not, and if Ludi WASN'T blocked, then mafia would prolly have killed BB last night.

@Toast-
Did you get any messages/feedback on whether your JK worked or not?

@Hiplop-
Did you take any actions last night targeting Nikanor?

@Kill & Vanilla-
Muffin raised a good point yesterday; if this follows the same as BNM, then mafia are unlikely to be able to kill AND use a power on the same night. Even if Nikanor flips vanillizer, it would mean someone else who was unblocked last night did the kill.

Taking out Kast/Nik/Toast leaves 4 possibilities; BB, Hip, Tans, & Vezok. Of the 4, Vezok is the most probable mafia (if Tans is vanillizer, then this would also mean that Vezok is mafia).

My preference would be for Nik to check Tans. Then we lynch Nik. If Nik flips mafia, then Tans is cleared and we lynch Vezok. If Nik gets an innocent, then it might be better to lynch Vezok first since we don't learn as much from Nik's flip.

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:06 pm

Kast2 here.

BB: i doubt mod is so anal about it. But for your sanity:

I am not aligned with mafia. I am aligned with town.

BTW, KJ jsut stated it works on only one post and one sentence, then he asks us to post two sentences in the post. I'm assuming he's faking his results like Kast noted above.

Tans wrote:I still think Kast should die, he is most likely the vanillaizer, I can't see three of us being vanillaized in one night. Two with a motivator makes sense.
Andy told Kast he was going to RB me N1, hence he was able to put that Andy/Tans thing into his post D2.

Tans are you fucking retarded? We already addressed this. I soft breadcrumbed separately 3 times (two before you fucking claimed that you targeted Andy), that I knew you acted on Andy. Why the hell are you ignoring this?

Second, Vezok claimed delay on me N2, thus it is impossible for me to be vanillaizer. LITERALLY THE FUCK IMPOSSIBLE.

Thirdly, Muffin claimed he would block me last night, yet Toasty claims to be vanilla-ized.

In order for me to be vanilla-izer, Vezok AND Toasty would have to be in on it. Are you seriously pulling this bullshit?

Please, let's go ahead and test the lie detector out on tans. Or anybody for that matter. Most likely there are two mafia left so KJ will probably claim inno, then try a mislynch tomorrow with a fake guilty claim.

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:17 pm

Oh, and for BB's reference, mod role PM states (paraphrased) that I am Jade (tracker), member of the Green Lantern Corps. The image in my role is not on the Jade wiki page.

Kast · Mon Sep 26, 2011 6:24 pm

One mafia left is possible; I think we've seen to many night actions for that to be true. Remaining mafia MUST be vanilla, and also must have made the kill. More likely, we have two left.

KJ: I want a claim on your original power.

Hiplop and KJ: Does your WL role info suggest that the other WLs are town? Muffin indicated strongly that it does, and he was pretty sharp throughout the game, but D1 Nik was claiming that other WLs are not confirmed town, only confirmed non CR.

The possible mafia arrangements that are consistent with the known and confirmed night actions are:

Vezok + Anyone

Toast + CJ

Toast + Tans

Vezok can literally be mafia with anyone except for Kast, unless Kast + Vezok have double GF or have GF + redicrector + nilla + tracker between the two of us. With his delay, they can circumvent any RB. I could see Vezok as Killer Frost (who I think during the start of the D1 he originally claimed then retracted).

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 3:51 am

BB: I agree with your conclusion on vezok: if he is town, then it confirms tans and myself as NOT being vanillizer. If he is mafia then he's scum.

KJ: Are you an idiot? Can you not follow simple logic? Or is that just an act?

I was vanilla'ed on N2. WLC was vanilla'ed on N2. Tans claimed vanilla'ed N2. Vezok claimed delay on me N2. Therefore, even if you ASSUME that I am faking it, Vezok HAS to be mafia. Conversely, if Vezok is not mafia, then I CANNOT be vanillizer.

Add on top of that the fact that BB already got town results on Vezok AND me, and that I posted confirmed tracker results, this literally requires that between the two of us we have three confirmed abilities:

GF or redirect, vanilla-izer, tracker

And also requires that last night we used 3 actions:

Night kill + vanilla on Toasty + godfather/redirect on BB

Srsly now.

-------------------------

I think best course of action is to wait on KJ's claim results, if he claims inno, we ignore him for now and focus on Vezok. I am pretty sure we have a solved game with a vezok lynch.

Best case: We lynch vezok, he is mafia GF/redirector. This clears Toasty, BB, and myself (confirmed night actions), and puts us at 5 town, 1, mafia, with 3 confirmed town, and at least 3 lynches to mafia's 1 NK. If we also consider KJ's result on tans:

If KJ claims inno (most likely claim if he's scum), this scenario puts us at 5 town, 1 scum, with 4 confirmed (tans would be confirmed if there is only one scum left). with 3 lynches to the one mafia kill.

BTW* even if you stubbornly ignore my tracker result, that is still 5 town with 3 confirmed, 1 mafia, and 3 lynches to 1 NK.

If KJ claims mafia, then we are automatically one-for-one with the last mafia.

2nd case: We lynch vezok, he is mafia nilla-izer. This means remaining mafia must be a redirector. This hard clears Toasty, BB, and myself (confirmed night actions), and also separately confirms Tans and myself as not the nillizer, putting us again at 5 town, 1 mafia, with *4 confirmed town*, and at least 3 lynches to mafia's 1 NK.

In this scenario, it doesn't matter what KJ's result will be, though he cna pretty much only get away with claiming town.

3rd case: We lynch vezok, he is town. This hard clears tans and me as not nilla-izer, leaving KJ+Toasty, KJ+Hiplop, or Toasty+Hiplop as the possible scum teams, but also confirms Toasty, BB, Tans, and myself as not the nilla-izer. This puts us at 4 town, 2 mafia, and pretty much guarantees KJ as the nilla-izer.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:04 am

BTW, BB, I'm not ignoring this; the soft crumbs and hard crumb are all explained in post 3074, with

5

links to explanations and the soft bread crumbs.

The gist of it is that I opened D2 with the hard crumb post, and also indicated my original suspicion including both Andy and Tans. However, my second post (and every single other post after that D2) I did not include tans in my suspicion list, because I was convinced Andy was scum, and Tans wouldn't have targeted Andy if he was scum. Note how, even before Tans ever posted D2, I already had him off my suspicion list. Note also how tans' claim was subtle, to the point that scum wouldn't know that Tans targeted Andy; Andy kept posting that he targeted tans. If I was faking a track Andy onto Tans, I would also have assumed that Tans was talking about being blocked rather than blocking Andy. Tans only clearly claimed this well after Andy continued to post the opposite.

My posts 1105 and 1107 also strongly support this in that I refer to Tans's interaction on Andy rather than Andy on Tans.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:26 am

@BB-
Its been answered multiple times that there's no flavor related to losing a ring or any item.

A townie is a member of town. If we're supposed to claim role as well, that's fine but not what was stated/asked.

Note for future, don't p propose last second objections to town action plans if its gonna just create unnecessary confusion.

@Tans-
You're still avoiding why/how I could be vanillizer given vezok's delay.

I already answered possibilities for the vanillas on N2:
-You are lying
-Vanilla ability is multi-shot
-Motivator turned the ability into multi-shot
-Vanilla ability is a combination of scum abilities and cult abilities

To be clear, the most probable situation is that KJ is the vanillizer. Tans reads as stubborn VI. Unfortunately the only other townie looking at the facts just got killed.

Note KJ completely ignored any questions about clarifying how his role works with the mods & didn't address the discrepancy between his claim & Nik's claim. Primarily, he didn't even attempt to see if we could get around potential GF issues (likely protecting vezok).

Also note his plan is crap logic-if he assumes I am mafia, then vezok has to be my partner (which he essentially admits in thesame post). But if he believes that & that vezok is probable mafia, then he should lynch vezok first. The plan for a Kast lynch is obviously an attempt to sneak in a mislynch on the only person who actually is looking at evidence & going after the clear scum.

Also note his proposal does nothing to test himself or prove himself; it was obvious from the beginning that he intends to claim an innocent result since a guilty would result in either his direct lynch or a1-for-1.

Share your result, if its guilty we lynch you first then Tans if you flip town. If its innocent, we learn nothing (except that you're playing like scum). In that case, then we could lynch Vezok as my brother just posted.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:41 am

@KJ-
To be clear, despite promising you would address my posts, you are choosing to NOT address them.

-My proposal with you and Tans is NOT equivalent to your proposal with me and Vezok. Claiming they are the same is classic scum crap-logic on the same level as Ludi's defense.

The short answer is:
-If you flipped town it guarantees Tans is mafia. If I flip town it says NOTHING about Vezok. IF the decision is to lynch one of Kast/Vezok, then the ONLY thing that makes sense is to lynch Vezok first.

Kast's Proposal:
-IF KJ has a guilty on Tans, THEN lynch KJ.
--IF KJ flips town, THEN lynch Tans
--IF KJ flips mafia, THEN Tans/Kast are cleared (Vezok is mafia GF by PoE and by his claimed Night Actions)
-IF KJ has an innocent on Tans, THEN lynch Vezok
--If Vezok flips town, THEN Tans/Kast are cleared so lynch KJ
--If Vezok flips mafia, THEN reexamine players for flips/behavior (you can push lynching Kast again if it still makes sense...which it won't but whatever)

Results of Kast's plan:
-The situation GUARANTEES a scum lynch no matter what KJ's affiliation is (and KJ-town would KNOW this guarantees a scum lynch).
-The situation lynches scummy players first, so if we DO have a 1-for-1 situation, we have better chances of making it 0-for-1.
-If Kast is mafia, then this proposal means Kast will most likely get caught/lynched.

KJ's proposal:
-IF KJ has a guilty on Tans, THEN lynch Tans.
--IF Tans flips town, THEN lynch KJ
--IF Tans flips mafia, THEN Kast/KJ are cleared (Vezok is mafia GF by PoE and by his claimed Night Actions)
-IF KJ has an innocent on Tans, THEN lynch Kast.
--IF Kast flips town, THEN reexamine players for flips/behavior (Kast town flip says NOTHING about Vezok and NOTHING about Tans/KJ)
--IF Kast flips mafia, THEN lynch Vezok.

Results of KJ's Plan:
-In the event that Kast is town, town is down one mislynch and scum are no closer to found than before.
-Requires a crap-logic jump to claim Kast MUST be mafia if Tans is not mafia
-Requires a crap-logic jump that IF one of Kast/Tans is a GF, then Kast is the GF

What part of my claim doesn't make sense? Nikanor was playing like a crack head o.O

Nikanor claimed he was bulletproof with "stipulations". Your avoiding this point is scummy.

Kast is probably pushing for a Vezok lynch as a form of trying to gain town cred not only from the lynch, but also because Vezok will flip delayer and Kast is probably going to pull the why would he lie/ I am a tracker speech.

Lolz actually Kast is pushing the "Vezok is scum as I've been saying", and "when Vezok flips GF, it clears Kast" because it is absolutely and completely 100% off the wall ridiculous to claim that scum just happen to have 2 GFs and both of them got investigated.

lieing scum caught

To be clear, you "decided" to investigate Tans instead of Kast because you thought it was possible that Kast might be a GF-Vanillizer and would thus screw with your result. In the event that scum Vanillizer

is

a GF-Vanillizer AND that Tans is the Vanillizer, why would your power work on Tans if it would not work on Kast? (this is one of the reasons for asking questions about your role...and I assume one of the reasons you avoided those questions?)

If you ARE a townie lie detector, then you are HORRIBLY misplaying your role by completely unnecessarily rushing things and refusing to clarify with mod how your ability actually works. If town loses as a result of a replacement jumping in and making a noob-OMGUS-misplay, that will be really annoying.

@KJ's result-
To be clear, KJ's claimed result would require one of these possibilities:
-Nikanor is lying
-There are 2 mafia GFs (Kast/Vezok)
-There are 2 mafia GFs (Tans/Vezok)
-One of BB/TT/Hip is mafia

@Hiplop-
Thoughts on Vezok and Nikanor. Also, do you think it is at all plausible that mafia has 2 GFs? Also, if you have any night action results from your OP WL power that you partial-claimed yesterday, please share.

@Toast-
Similar question: thoughts on Vezok and Nikanor? Do you think it is at all plausible that mafia has 2 GFs? And specifically, let's lynch Vezok now.

As far as cult; I doubt that there are any cult still present. It seems like the game started with OS/Ludi cult team and their N1 and N2 recruits were NPIAU and Kdub. On N3 it's unclear whether they were able to recruit anyone. I think the chance is low enough (Andy's backtracking on his claim seems slightly more like scum afraid of getting caught than scum lying to protect the CR). More than that, if Andy did not block Ludi on N3, then mafia would almost certainly have killed BB and nillized Muffin instead of killing Muffin and nillizing TT (mafia not killing cult on N4 means they risk getting out-voted and potentially recruited).

If Ludi successfully recruited anyone, it is

probably

BB like Ludi claimed. If BB was recruited as cult AND became the new cult recruiter, then last night he almost certainly recruited someone. That would mean we're screwed if we eliminate mafia, and we're screwed if we eliminate cult (3T/2M/2C). In that case we need to lynch one mafia and one cult then hope for a cross kill of mafia on cult.

We can start by lynching mafia.

@BB-
It seems like you absolutely trust Nikanor (for whatever reason), so fine, let's lynch Vezok for now. However, after Vezok's flip you're not allowed to flip-flop/fence-sit.

-If Vezok flips mafia-GF, then it should be obvious that I'm not mafia. If you're still hung up on the potential redirector at that point, then fine go for the Kast lynch. After my town flip, push Nik/KJ.
-If Vezok flips town, it clears me and Tans. At that point we lynch Nikanor.

@Lynch-
I'm vexed that it takes so much effort to get town to just do the clear and obvious thing (Lynch Ludi>Lynch Andy>Lynch Vezok/Nikanor). If there is no support for a Nik/KJ lynch, then let's lynch Vezok. His flip as GF should confirm myself and Tans. This pretty much PoE's KJ as the last possible mafia.

Obviously we'll have to take into consideration what Vezok actually flips; if he flips mafia non-GF, then it indicates either BB is mafia with him OR BB's suspicion about a redirector was correct.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:51 am

VOTE: Vezok

Btw, I'd actually prefer a Nik/KJ lynch based on his scumtastic play; but since people are apparently willing to ignore actual scummy game play and to instead focus on speculative, convoluted role-interactions that were claimed to avoid a lynch, then fine we can go with number 2. If Hiplop/Toast/BB/Vezok are willing to lynch obv-scum Nik/KJ, then I'll move my vote there.

I'm ignoring Tans since he's already claimed in thread that he doesn't care playing this game or figuring out what's going on anymore.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 11:58 am

Killjoy wrote:but also because Vezok will flip delayer and Kast is probably going to pull the why would he lie/ I am a tracker speech.

Also, please don't claim that I would use such an idiotic and nonsensical "defense". If Vezok flipped Mafia-Delayer, that says nothing about whether I was actually delayed or not. The information we might gain from Vezok flipping Mafia-Delayer would be that BB's investigation on Vezok turning "innocent" is not a result of Vezok being GF. In that case it would mean either:
-BB is lying
-Scum redirected BB

If scum have a redirector who redirected BB, it is plausible that the person who did the redirection ALSO is a GF; however, that would mean there is no remaining scum to be the Vanillizer (at this point Kast could only be mafia if there is a 7 man starting scum team, AND Kast

STILL

wouldn't be the vanillizer).

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:08 pm

KJ wrote:If anything your flip should confirm Vezok as town or scum. If you flip town, then Vezok is scum. If you flip scum, that throws everything into the air, but there is the possibility of Vezok being town.

Look at this shit. Everyone including Tans already acknowledged that it is impossible for us to be mafia unless Vezok is ALSO mafia. Literally impossible. KJ's refutation of logic is to ignore objective and undeniable fact. How exactly is he getting away with this?

Toasty: let's keep this simple before KJ fucks your mind over with his crap logic.

Vezok claimed delay on Kast N2.

Kast, WLC, and tans claimed to be vanilla'ed on N2. If Vezok is town, then it is impossible for Kast to be Vanillizer.

The only POSSIBLE way that Kast can be scum is if Vezok is also scum, but the two are not tied together. This is called necessary but not sufficient.

This is an objective proof.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:12 pm

KJ wrote:And no I am not dumb. That is very offensive and I expect an apology.

It's not offensive. It's accurately describing your conclusions. I find it offensive that you refuse to use logic or actually respond to objective, verified, proven logic. It is literally impossible for your suspicions to be true.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:21 pm

Killjoy wrote:I can't think straight

You got that right. It doesn't excuse you for pushing the half-baked crap that you're trying to push. You obviously have NOT read the game and are making ridiculous claims based on having incomplete info about the game state. Did you just start panicking when I fingered you as the scum vanillizer?

Killjoy wrote:He flipped a joat, probably meaning he didn't block you because he had a 1-shot roleblock so that would allow you to submit the vanillalize on Toasty.

Muffin claimed to have JUST RECEIVED an

UPGRADED ROLEBLOCK ABILITY

that screws the scum team if he RBs scum. Unless you're claiming that confirmed town Muffin, the person making the most sense this ENTIRE GAME, was LYING TO TOWN about his role; then kindly read up and realize what's actually happening and what actually happened so far in this game.

Killjoy wrote:You keep referring everyone to your claims and crumbs, when it is just as possible that you can fake those claims and crumbs as scum.

It is IMPOSSIBLE for me to FAKE a CRUMBED TRACKER RESULT unless TANS AND KAST are scum together. If you genuinely believe that your claimed result actually clears Tans as town, then that same clear means Kast

has

to be an actual Tracker.

Killjoy wrote:If you flip scum, that throws everything into the air, but there is the possibility of Vezok being town.

[sarcasm]Yeah because obviously town Vezok lied to protect Vanillizer-Kast. Town PRs are always lying to protect mafia. How would we figure out anything without you KJ?[/sarcasm]

Also, the previous 2 posts were from my brother, and I think both he and I are completely annoyed and frustrated by KJ's refusal to actually discuss and engage our points and insulted by his penchant for asserting that we are pushing the idiotic strawmen arguments that he keeps inventing.

Regardless it is inappropriate to call KJ dumb. Sorry about that. Your arguments have been crap-logic. Your play decisions have been terrible if you are town (semi-effective if you are mafia). But that reflects on your playstyle and ability to play mafia, not on you as a person. I'll talk to my brother.

I want to hear from BB/Hiplop/Toast regarding a Vezok lynch (it's pretty obvious KJ will refuse to lynch his buddy Vezok).

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 12:27 pm

BB wrote:If you're dumb enough to waste it on me I will punch you in the face -_-.

Killjoy wrote:And no I am not dumb. That is very offensive and I expect an apology.

Kast wrote:It's not offensive. It's accurately describing your conclusions. I find it offensive that you refuse to use logic or actually respond to objective, verified, proven logic. It is literally impossible for your suspicions to be true.

Oh nvm, I thought Killjoy was talking to me since the entire rest of that post and paragraph were addressed to me. I assumed my brother must have posted calling him dumb and that was a response. Lol @KJ getting "insulted" by BB's statement. You have to forgive BB for posting that; better safe than sorry and given the rest of your posts so far, it's not unwarranted.

To be clear, agree with you 100% that nobody should be calling you dumb.

However, nobody DID call you dumb. So yeah...

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:09 pm

@Toast-
Explanation of primary breadcrumb
Links to secondary/supporting breadcrumbs

Spoiler: In depth explanation of each crumb with time context

Primary Breadcrumb Highlighted wrote:
J
ust checking in, wrote this up during the looooong Night 1, sorry I couldn't join in on Day 1.
A
s Kast posted, I'm his twin brother and will play for him until he is back on the 23rd.
T
rying to get a grasp on all the players/alts; I've never played with hydras before.

A
fter reading through all those posts day 1, I think I have some decent reads on the more prolific posters.
N
ikanor, Muffin, Friend, Hiplop, Subliminal, and Mastin strike me as town.
A
ndrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

D
on't have much of an opinion on the rest, or not enough to warrant sharing.
D
o you guys usually share speculation on night actions and supected motivations, or is that better to keep hidden for now and bring it up when there is a more solid case?
N
ormally I play assuming that a scum team is already just as capable of noticing any observations or conclusions I make from public information, so it's better to share with the other townies that might not have noticed things.

E
ither way, I will probably be posting a more in depth analysis for the players I find more suspicious.
Y
esterday's vote weirdness seems the most pressing point to me; that and CJ's attempted hammer, even if it technically happened after the day was over.
S
ince we now know ooba was town, we can surmise there was neither a scum motivation to try to save ooba by preventing a vote switch, nor motivation for scum to prevent a non-scum CJ from voting a town ooba.

Note the entire post

also

makes complete sense while simultaneously hiding an indisputable message. This is *part* of the reason for the JADE/ANDY/TANS order. The other part is because our actual result was just Andy (your target visited Andy). Tans was our target, but with LLD flipping redirector, there was certainly a possibility of our target actually being someone else (unlikely since I hadn't claimed PR yet). This message was posted before Andy or Tans had claimed any actions.

Second Breadcrumb Linked to and Clarifying Primary Crumb wrote:
CJ, Andrius and Vezok
seem the
most likely mafia
(likely others as well).

This is to be contrasted with the prior post statement of scum suspects

Contrast Updated Suspicion List wrote:Andrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

This clarification crumb follows a more traditional setup and is used to clarify that out of the two people mentioned previously, Tans was a suspect from D1 action but is no longer a suspect after N1. This crumb was posted before Andy stated anything about Tans and before Tans posted at all.

Traditional Breadcrumb wrote:RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this.
I have susp[icions on both,
and may
have soemthign useful to contribute
...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?
...
No, it's actually very sensible.
Tans is more and more making snese to me.

More traditional crumb of a standard investigation role of sorts relevant to Andy and Tans with indication that

result does not straight up clear or condemn

either one, but if anything

positive result on Tans

. At this point in time, Andy had claimed taking an action on Tans and Tans had hinted at sending a mod PM to Andy.

Third Crumb direct to Tans wrote:Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but after your interaction with Andy today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.

Again a crumb that I suspected Tans (hence reason for investigating him), but no longer suspect him. Uncertainty indicates the uncertaintly of whether Tans is townie or 3rd party (he took some action, but it obviously wasn't harmful to Andy). At this point Tans had already hinted that his ability sends a mod-PM to Andy, which is unlikely to be mafia.

EBWOP-
@Hiplop-
Please confirm with mod if your PM flavor is actually game relevant or just flavor. None of the other WLs claimed to KNOW that ALL WLs are good, they just all assumed it from play interactions (except for Nikanor who helped push through the Mr.S lynch).

Also, two things:

Hiplop wrote:i thought he was going ot get CRed

By this did you mean you thought CR was going to kill Toast or recruit Toast?

Hiplop wrote:I WAS the bodyguard,

If you are town BG (which seems plausible),

YOU SHOULD HAVE CLAIMED ON D3!

Your claim would almost certainly have gotten Ludi lynched instead of Mr.S.

@Hiplop's claim-
Sounds plausible; though it would have been good to get confirmation from one of the WLs whether they lose their old power when gaining a new one (not sure if any of them clarified this...or if it matters since most of them were 1x).

To be clear, you are not claiming 3x BG that are now used up, but rather that you lost your BG when you gained your new power?

Also, is your Mid-day cop 1x or multiple use? Is it a Mafia/Cult/Other Cop?

@Cop Target-
Nikanor is probably a better bet, however, we should lynch Vezok first and figure out who is the best target after he flips and depending what he flips (if he flips GF-Vanillizer, then maybe don't target Nikanor...though Vezok as GF-Vanillizer is prolly the least informative on potential partners).

Also, if your investigation can reveal cult, then as long as Vezok flips any type of mafia, it might be best to investigate BB to confirm if he is still town.

Kast · Tue Sep 27, 2011 4:29 pm

[quote=Toasty]Also, Kast, I thought you claimed a Vanillizer? But a town one? Like, claimed it a looong time ago too....[/quote]
No, Nikanor claimed vanillizer. He claimed to have been doubled and targeted Tans and me. However, pretty much everyone except BB dismissed it as a joke claim at the time.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 7:35 am

@BB-
Not really. Subliminal and Muffin both said that Hiplop's confusion makes sense given the WL PM. Also, no offense to Hiplop, but his play has been riddled with confusions about almost everything.

For that matter, Nikanor also claimed to have received his ring on D2. Though he clarified it was from a different source than Mr.S.

@Toast/Vezok-

Vezok wrote:Do you really think Sinestro is a delayer?

Toast wrote:Andrius flipping scum roleblocker makes vezok a more likely town target.

If Vezok is mafia, then Delayer is probably a fake claim (along with Ice/Freezer). If Vezok is mafia, then he is pretty much guaranteed to be a GF (potentially Unrecruitable-GF).

@Hiplop-
You didn't answer your thoughts on Nik/Vezok (or at least not directly).

Scenarios:
Hiplop review scenarios and if you agree, let's lynch Vezok.

-Vezok flips Mafia GF-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates Kast to confirm BB's night cop result

Confirms Kast as town and confirms BB's cop results.

-Vezok flips Mafia GF-Vanillizer
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates BB to check if he was Cult Recruited

With mafia vanillizer dead, this takes care of potential cult problem

-Vezok flips Mafia GF, Non-Vanillizer, Non-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

Similar to previous, it's probably best to investigate BB. It's actually prolly better to investigate Nikanor, but it's unlikely there will be clear support for that

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Non-Vanillizer, Non-Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates BB to check if he is mafia

The remaining mafia must be the vanillizer so it isn't redirector. That leaves BB as a lying scum false clearing Vezok

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Redirector
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

It might be best to investigate BB and confirm he isn't Cult AND he wasn't lying to protect Vezok

-Vezok flips Mafia Non-GF, Vanillizer
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates ???

It's unclear at this point. Investigating BB might be good here since it kills 2 birds with one stone (ensures BB wasn't lying to cover Vezok and checks whether he is cult)

-Vezok flips town
>Hiplop Day Cop investigates Nikanor

This is the least likely case, but if so, then Vezok's flip confirms Kast as non-Vanillizer and Nik's Lie Detector confirms Tans as non-Vanillizer. Nik is PoE the only remaining plausible Vanillizer.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 8:16 am

@Blackberry-
-If Vezok is GF and Nikanor is Vanillizer, then they obviously wouldn't vanillize you because you obviously were not going to investigate Nikanor.
--For that matter, if Nikanor is Vanillizer, then Toast is the ONLY PERSON he could have vanillized. Otherwise he would have gotten JKed.

-Also, it was pretty obvious that you were going to investigate Kast or Tans last night. If Kast and Tans are both town, then mafia have no reason to touch you. Even more, Muffin's previous plan (his final one was RB Kast), was to watch BB; that would mean any mafia action (e.g. kill, vanillize, anything) could have been found.

-Seriously not getting why you're spazzing out. Right now you aren't looking at what is MOST likely. You aren't looking at what fits ALL the evidence we have.

You keep looking at INDIVIDUAL puzzles pieces, finding a possibility that NOBODY ELSE seems to be pushing, then declaring that it MUST BE because it fits THAT ONE SPECIFIC criteria.

If the puzzle piece fits on 1 side, but the other 3 sides don't fit, then it's the wrong piece.

-Toast isn't mafia. He CCed Nikanor with his JK claim and claimed a JK on OS when OS should have had results. OS confirmed the JK.

You are misremembering or misrepresenting what OS claimed about Toast; he did not claim that Ludi was JKed. He claimed that he RBed Toast; that's how he knew that Ludi wasn't blocked by Toast. It also makes absolutely NO SENSE for the Cult JoAT to NOT RB the guy who ACCORDING TO PLAN was going to JK his CR.

-Your objections to my scenarios also make no sense. There is only ONE scenario in which I discuss Vezok flipping town. In that scenario I did NOT propose Hiplop investigating you. In any scenario in which I propose investigating you, VEZOK IS MAFIA. None of those are compatible with Kast + Toast mafia, unless you are claiming there are currently 3 mafia members (Kast, Vezok, & Toast).

If there IS cult today, then we should lynch one mafia and one cult. At the least we need to lynch one mafia today.

It should be pretty obvious I'm not MAFIA-aligned because OS used something on me to prove I'm not mafia and thus his conclusion that I am town.

Where/when did OS use an ability on you and how/why should we believe OS's claim? You realize OS was cult? You realize cult's objectives are not the same as town's objectives?

You also realize that if you WERE recruited, then you are on OS's team and he would be trying to keep you safe/out of suspicion.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:05 am

@BB-

A: This statement is conscerning why I am not MAFIA. Not why I am NOT-CULT.

Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.
Aside from that, it's pretty clear that mafia can be recruited, so the point about OS or Ludi defending one of their recruits holds regardless of whether you are town or mafia.

Ludi had absolutely no reason to lie when he posted about his suspects of who mafia are and who was cleared as non-mafia.

This statement is circular. If you are a recruit, then Ludi has a clear and obvious reason for lying about you. If we assume you are town, then Ludi would have no reason to tell the truth OR lie about his suspects. Also, given that it was town pushing to lynch Ludi with confirmed scum leading the counter-lynch that kept him alive until D4, it's not very realistic to claim he has any incentive to help town and hurt mafia.

-If we pretend Ludi had some incentive to help town against mafia, when did OS actually have a chance to use an ability and verify your affiliation?
a) N1 he was Delayed by Vezok
b) N2 he was JKed by TT
c) N3 he RBed TT

a) If you're assuming Vezok is lying mafia GF, then let's lynch Vezok now.
b) If you're claiming TT lied about JKing OS on N2, then how do you explain TT's JK CC on Nikanor N1?
c) If you're claiming OS did not RB TT on N3, and instead used a night action to investigate you, how does that make sense with Ludi's claim to have recruited you on N3 because you were town? Investigations resolve AFTER recruiting (also, why would they investigate the person they are recruiting?).

To be clear, you're probably not cult and you're extremely unlikely to be mafia. But it's not for the silly BS reasons you are claiming now. You're probable town mafia cop just because this game needs that role for balance. For that reason alone you are unlikely to be mafia.

TT was almost certainly RBed on N3. But Andy's claimed RB on Ludi, combined with mafia not killing BB on N4 both indicate that mafia prolly did block Ludi. If they did NOT block Ludi, then they would need to kill his recruit or risk getting recruited/out-voted.

-You've gone from wanting to lynch Vezok, to Killjoy, to Hiplop, to Toasty (all the while listing me as a potential buddy to half of the others). You're calling everyone (except Tans) scum. Changing your thoughts based on what's going on is fine and good. Changing your thoughts because you got bored isn't helpful.

-If you're opposed to any of my proposals for Hiplop, be specific on which one and why. If you have a better idea/alternative, then share it.

@Hiplop-
Not sure if that last part was addressed to me, but assuming it is, I'd like you to vote Vezok and depending how he flips, investigate the appropriate person.

@Toast-
Given Nik's claim, Tans cannot be mafia unless he is GF or unless Nik is lying.

Thoughts on my proposal for Hiplop's Day Cop power?

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 10:57 am

@Tans-
He claimed 1-shot Lie Detector and Permanent (no conditions) Bulletproof (different from Nikanor's claim)

In post 3439, Blackberry wrote:
Nobody is calling you mafia; so your arguments are straw men.

I listed my arguments as to why
I can not mafia
and you attacked
those
arguments as to why I could be cult
when they are about me being mafia or not
...
Are you a f#cking idiot?

I listed my arguments as to why

you should be investigated as CULT

and you attacked

those

arguments by

claiming you cannot be MAFIA....

Are you a f#cking idiot?

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:11 am

@BB-
Your "reason" you can't be mafia is a load of crap-logic BS anyway. If you were culted by Ludi, then OS's defense of you is MEANINGLESS regarding your affiliation as town or mafia.

As an analogy, if a Serial Killer were lynched and he posted twilight crap that he was actually a cop and investigated Player A as innocent. Once he flips SK you can't trust that Player A is actually innocent. If the SK flipped as 3rd Party who wins if Player A survives to end-game, then ABSOLUTELY the 3rd Party should not be trusted since he has motive for keeping Player A alive. It doesn't matter what affiliation Player A is.

@TT-
If you have a better first lynch choice than Vezok, please share. This game is stalling out.

Obviously Hiplop gets to decide who he investigates. However, town should absolutely give input on what's the optimal investigation target.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:24 am

BB wrote:Incorrect, I listed why you are an idiot.

Incorrect, you listed a "reason" why you are not mafia. You listed a "reason" why you are not cult. You posted therefore that you should not be investigated.

This was posted as a direct response to my proposal for Hiplop's investigation.

You added to this that investigating you would be bad because Kast and Toast would be mafia together (requiring Kast & Toast & Vezok to all be mafia).

This is my reason why I can't be Culted. You ignored this.

This is false. I addressed it here:

You are misremembering or misrepresenting what OS claimed about Toast; he did not claim that Ludi was JKed. He claimed that he RBed Toast; that's how he knew that Ludi wasn't blocked by Toast. It also makes absolutely NO SENSE for the Cult JoAT to NOT RB the guy who ACCORDING TO PLAN was going to JK his CR.

So no, Ludi was NOT double blocked. He was

probably

single blocked and

potentially

not blocked at all.

The above was my reason why I can't be Mafia, yet, you choose to attack these reasons.

That's NOT a cult reason. Your degradation of posting to personal insults instead of actually addressing my points is uncalled for and is itself more crap-logic.

Your claim that you cannot be mafia is based on an assumption that is false. You require the testimony of a player who is NOT town and who might have RECRUITED you. This has 3 problems:

-IF YOU WERE RECRUITED THEN HIS TESTIMONY WAS OBVIOUSLY PROTECTING HIS RECRUIT.

This is not a "cult reason", this is a refutation of your crap-logic straw man defense.
-If you are town, OS is STILL NON-TOWN and STILL has NO REASON for telling town the truth.
-OS NEVER CLAIMED what you say he claimed.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:42 am

@BB-
Also, you're distracting from the issue at hand. Let's lynch mafia.

@TT-

+ a single result in which Nikanor is checked.

If this was meant to imply suspicion of Nikanor (ie. Nik should be investigated in more cases), then that's probably fine. The deciding factor in most of the Vezok-Mafia-Flip cases is that

IF

there are any cult today,

THEN

it is better to lynch 1 Mafia and 1 Cult rather than 2 Mafia.

If BB was recruited on N3, then N4 he recruited someone (potentially even mafia). That puts us at 3T/2M/2C (potentially 4T/1M/2C).
-If lynch mafia but don't lynch any cult today, then we lose after cult recruits tonight 2T/3C (potential kill OR recruit would make us lose 1T/3C).
-If we lynch one mafia and one cult, then we're in the best shape:
3T/2M/2C -lynch 1M/1C> 3T/1M/1C -Mafia must try to kill cult or he gets lynched tomorrow/Cult recruits someone> 3T/1M (or 2T/1M/1C or 3T/0M/1C depending who got recruited and whether killing CR cancels recruiting) -lynch 1M and 1C> Town Win

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 11:52 am

Posted that before finishing:
@TT (cont'd)-
If there was NO recruit on N3, then lynching 1 Mafia and investigating to find Cult ALSO helps with a clear on BB (especially if Vezok flips non-GF). It doesn't prevent us from lynching another mafia, but

EVEN IF

we fail to lynch the second mafia, we have another 2 chances on the following day. And if Vezok flips GF/Redirector, then we get 2 more investigations that we can trust if we mislynch.

@BB-

BB wrote:Ludi was a cult. He was pissed off at mafia for killing two of his men. He seemed very sincere when he posted who was cleared.

That is

PLAUSIBLE

. I've stated several times that I think you are probably NOT recruited.

PLAUSIBLE

is not the same as

PROOF

. If you are town, then you need to do a better job thinking about things from the PoV of a

TOWNIE WHO IS NOT YOU

.

BB wrote:On top of that, I already know he is telling the truth so I know furthermore that his intention is to help the town when he posted his bit.

Great for you. That's not the least bit convincing for anyone

WHO IS NOT YOU

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:22 pm

@BB-
Here's an analogy to show how little sense your posts made.

PersonA: PersonB probably is not TEAM1, but just in case we should <CHECK HIM>
PersonB: I can't be TEAM2 because PersonC on TEAM1 said I <HAVE BIG FEET>
PersonA: Wtf?! That doesn't make any sense. I didn't say you are on TEAM2, that is a straw man. Also, we can't trust anything PersonC said because he might be protecting his TEAMMATE. Finally, <HAVING BIG FEET> doesn't mean you can't be part of TEAM1 or TEAM2.
PersonB: You are an idiot. You are saying I might be on TEAM2 because I might be on TEAM1!!!
PersonA: O_o...

@KJ-
-You haven't answered several questions:
--You still haven't answered the discrepancy in your claim and Nikanor's claim.
--You still haven't explained why you think GF-Vanillizer Kast would show up innocent to your lie detector ability but GF-Vanillizer Tans would show up guilty.
--You still haven't explained why you didn't ask mods about how your ability works with a GF (or any other questions about how it works for that matter).
--You still haven't explained how Kast could be Vanillizer who Vanillized 2+ people on N2 if Vezok-town Delayed Kast on N2.
---If you acknowledge the impossibility of that, then clarify and explain how it would hurt to lynch Vezok first.

-You realize the person who was supposed to block you is the SAME PERSON who got Vanillized right?
-You also realize OS was not a cop, right?

In post 0, The Book of Oa wrote:-
Oversoul, Scar (Cult JOAT)
, member of the
Black Lantern Corps
, died D4.1.

-If Vezok flips non-GF and you think I am the GF, WHY SHOULD

ANYONE

INVESTIGATE ME?

It is just like Andrius's play who flipped mafia.

Did you even read this game when you replaced in? Andy was playing a complete sheeping-follow-the-leader game. His lack of directing/coordinating town is one of the huge scumtells that several people pointed out against him

FROM D1

.

The primary person coordinating town this game was Muffin (FYI he was the

townie

WL that you killed last night).

@Hiplop-
If you are unsure about your power, ask mod how it works.

Kast · Wed Sep 28, 2011 12:25 pm

You know somethings up when people are using flipped, Anti-Town, 3rd-Party as their best references.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 4:24 am

Nikanor's Day 2 claimed that he already got his WL ring KJ: explain this.

BB: You asked for links to the crumbs, so I posted links. You ignored the post, so Kast reposted. You haven't commented whether you read them, but you imply in your post here that you have not read the links or the posts, and that you doubt they actually exist, despite the fact that the links have been posted multiple times. I can't do anything for you if you refuse to look at or read the posts and links you asked for.

You also seem to keep confusing NAR.

Copy
Hide
Bus

Block

Redirect

Protect

Miscellaneous

Kill
Recruit

Inspect

Tracker is an inspection, it happens last, regardless of the ordering of anything else.

Vanillize should be a miscellaneous* action, so it should resolve after (4.) RB's and after (5.) Delay/Redirects.

*We know it must be miscellaneous category because it doesn't fall into other categories above, and because it must have been doubled by a motivator, which is itself a miscellaneous action.*

We also know empirically that Tans claimed RB on WLC N2, and that he didn't know if it succeeded or failed.

We also know that WLC claimed to use his Anti-Cult doctor N2, and indicated he was not blocked, as he did not receive the action failed message that Muffin and OS both claimed to receive.

The most sensible conclusion then is that, like Tans' Copy + Block Power, the vanillizer power also blocks. This is consistent with becoming a vanilla townie.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:23 am

@Nikanor-
The previous post was my brother. That point about Nik claiming he got his ring on D2 wasn't meant as an attack, it seems reasonable given that Hiplop ALSO claimed the same thing (and it seems implausible that you are BOTH mafia).

-Discrepancy between your claim and Nikanor's claim is as I have stated several times now:

Spoiler: Nik claimed limited BP

-Let's be clear here. You stated intent to investigate either Kast or Tans due to belief that one of us must be the Vanillizer. This had NOTHING to do with play and/or scumminess of either player. You haven't even read the game or seen how either of us is posting/playing (except that I'm an active player and Tans isn't).

You were asked if GF interacted with your role and you said YOU DON"T KNOW. We asked you to check with the mods and you INSTEAD JUST USED YOUR POWER.

You decided to NOT INVESTIGATE KAST because of the possibility of Kast being a GF-Vanillizer. Instead you decide to investigate your OTHER vanillizer suspect, despite the EXACT SAME disqualifying condition existing for him.

NAR says that blocks go before miscellaneous so that point about me being vanillizer is completely wrong

You (and my brother) did not read NAR properly. There are several problems with your guys interpretations:
1) The FIRST thing listed and key aspect of NAR is the golden rule. Resolve all abilities that don't depend on other abilities first. A delayer targeting a roleblocker would delay that roleblocker as long as the roleblocker did not ALSO target the delayer. In both cases involving Vezok, NOBODY has claimed an RB, Block, or Vanillize on Vezok. His ability thus would go through as claimed and effectively Block his target.

2) Delayer is a BLOCKING action. Nillizer is ALSO a BLOCKING action. WLC and I were both BLOCKED by the vanillize ability. When an ability contains multiple parts, it resolves when the FIRST part would resolve. The only question/uncertainty is WHICH blocking action would happen first in Nikanor/TT situation. Jailkeeping is ALSO a BLOCKING action.

KJ wrote:Andy was making a lot of plans and night action guides that people followed and guess what, scum still were able to kill

WTF?!? You screw up once because you didn't read the game, fine. I'll give you that and correct you. But if you're going to insist on blatantly false statements, then sorry but you've GOT to back it up.
--N3 actions Andy

followed

the plan proposed by Kdub. This really isn't relevant since it has NOTHING TO DO with allowing a kill/vanillize to happen last night.
--N4 Andy didn't plan ANYTHING. Muffin and I proposed plans for N4. My plan included MUFFIN BLOCKING KAST. Muffin decided to NOT BLOCK KAST and altered the plan to MUFFIN WATCHING BB. I told Muffin if he wasn't blocking me he should WATCH TANS TO CONFIRM OR DISPROVE Vezok. BB objected and told Muffin to BLOCK KAST. Muffin said fine we could REVERT to the ORIGINAL PLAN where MUFFIN BLOCKS KAST.

It's pretty fucking obvious that Muffin was killed was to prevent him from clearing me. If Muffin was alive right now, Nik and Vezok would both be already lynched and flipped scum and we would have won this game already.

I didn't kill muffin last night if I vandalized someone like you said. Nice slip right there. Just trying to paint me as scummy.

Please don't act like a moron. You is clearly referring to you as part of the MAFIA. How the hell does a mafia SLIP KNOWLEDGE THAT A TOWNIE DID THE MAFIA KILL?!?! Unless you are claiming that WE are mafia together and thus Kast knows that Nikanor did the mafia kill, then your objection is nonsense.

This whole "I'm gonna read that and twist it as much as I possibly can instead of reading the obvious and direct meaning" is an indication that you're getting cornered and desperately grasping for straws here.

Switching votes to bus your buddy is more indication that you're getting desperate (scared of Toast's indication that you should be investigated?). Obv-scum-bus under pressure is obv. But that's fine. We lynch Vezok now then depending if he flips GF or not we may check BB for being cult. If BB is not cult, then we've already won no matter who we lynch second.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:23 am

EBWOP:

@Mod-

please fix spoiler tags in previous post?

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 5:59 am

Actually, disregard my NAR discussion. I had Kast just explained to me more clearly how NAR works. I had skimmed over the explanation of the Golden rule. Also, my above logic fails since WLC's action would be second to last under NAR, so it should have been blocked regardless of whether or not Tans's block went through.

Revised to account for golden rule:

The Golden Rule wrote:Apply actions which modify other actions before the actions they modify.

Applying the Golden Rule in Three Easy Steps wrote:Find an action such that its effect cannot possibly be modified by any other action.
Resolve it.
Repeat from step 1 until all actions are resolved.

Blocking is an action that modifies other actions.
Delaying is an action that modifies other actions.
Vanillizing is an action that affects other actions.

If blocker targets the delayer/vanillizer, and the delayer/vanillizer does not also target the blocker, then there is no paradox, so the Golden Rule applies, and the delayer/vanillizer would be blocked.

If delayer targets the blocker/vanillizerm, and the blocker/vanillizer does not also target the delayer, then there is no paradox, so the Golden Rule applies, and the blocker/vanillizer would be delayed.

If vanillizer targets the blocker/delayer, and the blocker/delayer does not also target the vanillizer, then there is no paradox, so the Golden Rule applies, and the blocker/delayer would be vanillized.

Three players vanillized on N2, plus the vanillizer, plus delayer.

Role blocker
Delayer
Cult Doctor
Vanillizer
Tracker

As N2 has no claimed paradox loops, we then pick an action. In

this scenario

, we look at step one of applying the golden rule.

Find an action such that its effect cannot possibly be modified by any other action.

Cannot pick Role blocker, it's effect can be modified (nullified) if Vanilla resolves first.
Cannot pick Delayer, because it's effect (delay tracker results) can be modified if Vanilla blocks tracking result.
Cannot pick Cult doctor, it's effect can be modified (nullified) by Vanillizer, and if Vanillizer does not block, then results would still be blocked by Role blocker.
Cannot pick tracker, it's effect will be modified either by the Vanillizer, or the delayer, or both.

The only action (of the relevant actions here) by Golden Rule that can be applied first is the Vanillizer (if we include a motivator, then the motivator necessarily would be before this).

Thus N2, all vanillizer shots would resolve first. Once vanillize resolves, all vanilla players are VT. VT do not have abilities, thus no actions would be performed.

Vanillizer
Delayer

Now we have an interesting claim for N4:
TT jailkeeps JK, but JK Vanillizes TT. By NAR, we have a paradox loop, so we skip the Golden Rule, and move on to the Paradox resolution rules:

Paradox and Ambiguity wrote:Sometimes the actions that might affect each other form a loop, so that there's no action to pick in step 1. In other cases, the order of two actions matters but it isn't clear that one affects the other. When that happens, pick an action to resolve in this order:
Copy
Hide
Bus
Block
Redirect
Protect
Miscellaneous
Kill
Recruit
Inspect
Count minor modifications of the actions listed above the same as the basic action (e.g., randomize would be the same priority as redirect).
For actions which combine two other actions use the first one listed.

If the list still doesn't narrow it down to a single action, pick one of the best candidates using any fair method, such as by taking the first one submitted.
Resolve the action you picked this way, then go back to the golden rule until you get another cycle. Usually one or two picks are enough to make everything work.

N4, we have two conflicting actions: vanilla on TT, and block on KJ. Both actions are combined actions:

TT: Jailkeep = Block + Protect => resolves on step 4
JK: Vanillizer = Block + Miscellaneous => resolves on step 4

I'm not sure which of the two would then occur first, so this is a null indicator for now.

PEDIT: Well, I guess Kast original decided to step in clear it up already. Going to post anyway since I went through and redid the analysis.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:16 am

Also, how the hell is delayer a miscellaneous action?!? that makes absolutely no sense. It is most definitely a Manipulative Role style, and of those, it is closest to a redirect (except that it redirects the ability from occurring the current night to the following night. This is consistent with a redirected kill requiring a doctor to protect on the second night, not the first, (just like a redirected kill would require a doctor to protect the new target player instead of the original player).

Why are getting hung up on that one claim

Because that, along with the WL claim and conditional BP claims were the only claims he made in serious posts where he was responding seriously to other players that, at the time, he claimed were town. As opposed to when he soft claimed vanillizer, and everyone assumed it was a joke.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:18 am

Are you an idiot? The updated discussion of NAR is a correction of my mistaken read, but if you even bothered to read it, it comes to the same conclusion: Vanillizer blocks others, and NAR doesn't clear you.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 6:20 am

Backpedaling means taking back a prior position in order to take a different position. That is hardly the same thing as posting a flawed argument that comes to a conclusion, then posting a correct argument that breaks down the original argument and comes to the same conclusion with valid methods.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:03 am

How can I be flailing if I'm not at risk for a lynch?

This is a straw man deflection. You know what I stated since you quoted it below. Nowhere did I say you're about to be lynched. I explicitly stated you are scared of Toast saying you should be investigated.

Your "muffin was killed so he couldn't confirm me" is WIFOM.

You're evading the point. You claim I tried to setup night actions so that Kast-Mafia would not be blocked. This is BLATANTLY FALSE. My proposal was for Muffin to roleblock me. Muffin's final statement was that he WOULD BLOCK ME. In a normal game with sane players who actually READ what's been posted, this would be a clear. I realize you haven't read the game, Tans isn't reading anymore, Hiplop isn't paying attention, Vezok isn't here, BB's confused as hell (Toast is the most reasonable, but he's only semi-active); so I've been focusing on finding and lynching SCUM.

So you are WRONG about Andy coordinating actions. You are WRONG about ME planning actions to let mafia kill/vanillize. You completely made up that BS about Andy. You have no idea what's actually going on.

-Revisionist defenses are invalid, yours is inconsistent you admitted that you did not think about how a GF would interact. You were asked by several people to check with mod on how it works.

Instead of checking

you posted that you submitted your action on Tans. You later claimed to check with mod and that the wiki told you how it interacts. You now claim the mod told you how it interacts.

What? Where did I say that? I was told by the mod and
looked it up on the wiki
that gf are immune to any investigation including my lie detection.
I see your point about Tans, he is playing like town tho. You are not.

-And yes, saying "Hiplop can investigate me but he's probably scum" shows you ARE scared of his investigation. You're already setting up to drop your primary suspect (Kast) as soon as Vezok flips and switch to Vezok/Hiplop scum team theory. Anything that keeps you alive.

You are makin assumptions out the ass and then using them as "proof" that I am wrong.

Pot meet kettle. Aside from that, point out a

single

false assumption that I am using as "proof" that you are wrong. Everyone has to make assumptions in this game; if you think any of my assumptions are unjustified then explain why or how.

you make the claim and assume that it acts as a roleblocker too,

Yes, the Vanillizer blocked me, Tans, and WLC. That's three players who all got vanillized and blocked. How is that a bad assumption? Even if you don't trust me or Tans, WLC is FLIPPED CONFIRMED TOWN.

which is dumb considering how many have already flipped,

This doesn't even make any sense.

I state I can't be because I was roleblocked, you then go on to use your own assumption as evidence that I am lieing?

You roleblocked a Jailkeeper. Your power "won" in priority. The EVIDENCE is that Toast claimed to have been Vanillified. The assumptions required for this are that CONFIRMED TOWN WLC was telling the truth, that the MOD STATEMENT ABOUT NAR was true and not bastard modding.

Delayer is not a blocking action. It is also in miscellaneous.

And Vezok told you this in your private QT? Or are you claiming the mod told you this? Delaying pretty clearly and obviously BLOCKS the ability from happening. It's a temporary measure to be sure. It's effectively BLOCK + COPY (on the following night). Vezok's

specific

Delay hasn't been exactly clarified since he won't answer anyone's questions about how exactly it works.

Mafia slip in that they dont remember what they previously said about someone because they are making up lies.

You don't GENUINELY mean to say that DESPITE me posting in the EXACT SAME POST that you are the mafia vanillizer, you claim I "forgot" that you are the mafia vanillizer? Your whole point is an attempted semantics argument to lock onto one word ("you") and force an unnatural reading of it as a means to discredit the rest of the post (which you haven't even touched on). Scumtastic.

I will answer your bulletproof question later but I have to run now.

Translation: "I need more time to make up a plausible fake claim/explanation"

Nice back pedaling though with the NAR. Classy stuff.

You're avoiding the point. Quit the stalling tactics. Your understanding of NAR is horrible. My brother's understanding was also completely off. The correct understanding has been explained. Your BS defense is revealed as BS. Your move.

-Lol also apparently this was just for show? Trying to figure a way to save your buddy or are you just scared that Hiplop will investigate you even if you bus?

I'm going to
bus
vote for Vezok now

Seriously would prefer a Nik/KJ lynch before a Vezok lynch.

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:09 am

@BB-

you state word for word what ALL your crumbs were,
[done]
with post numbers, as well as when Tans came out with the information about Andrius,
[and done]
so we can therefore know you indeed stated this before Tans admitted to targetting Andrius.

When you see that little button saying "SHOW" try clicking on it. If you don't have the energy for that, then sorry I'm not going to take the energy to erase the spoiler tag.

In post 3426, Kast wrote:@Toast-
Explanation of primary breadcrumb
Links to secondary/supporting breadcrumbs

Spoiler: In depth explanation of each crumb with time context
Primary Breadcrumb Highlighted wrote:
J
ust checking in, wrote this up during the looooong Night 1, sorry I couldn't join in on Day 1.
A
s Kast posted, I'm his twin brother and will play for him until he is back on the 23rd.
T
rying to get a grasp on all the players/alts; I've never played with hydras before.

A
fter reading through all those posts day 1, I think I have some decent reads on the more prolific posters.
N
ikanor, Muffin, Friend, Hiplop, Subliminal, and Mastin strike me as town.
A
ndrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.

D
on't have much of an opinion on the rest, or not enough to warrant sharing.
D
o you guys usually share speculation on night actions and supected motivations, or is that better to keep hidden for now and bring it up when there is a more solid case?
N
ormally I play assuming that a scum team is already just as capable of noticing any observations or conclusions I make from public information, so it's better to share with the other townies that might not have noticed things.

E
ither way, I will probably be posting a more in depth analysis for the players I find more suspicious.
Y
esterday's vote weirdness seems the most pressing point to me; that and CJ's attempted hammer, even if it technically happened after the day was over.
S
ince we now know ooba was town, we can surmise there was neither a scum motivation to try to save ooba by preventing a vote switch, nor motivation for scum to prevent a non-scum CJ from voting a town ooba.
Note the entire post
also
makes complete sense while simultaneously hiding an indisputable message. This is *part* of the reason for the JADE/ANDY/TANS order. The other part is because our actual result was just Andy (your target visited Andy). Tans was our target, but with LLD flipping redirector, there was certainly a possibility of our target actually being someone else (unlikely since I hadn't claimed PR yet). This message was posted before Andy or Tans had claimed any actions.

Second Breadcrumb Linked to and Clarifying Primary Crumb wrote:
CJ, Andrius and Vezok
seem the
most likely mafia
(likely others as well).
This is to be contrasted with the prior post statement of scum suspects

Contrast Updated Suspicion List wrote:Andrius, CJ, Tans, and Vezok* strike me as possible scum.
This clarification crumb follows a more traditional setup and is used to clarify that out of the two people mentioned previously, Tans was a suspect from D1 action but is no longer a suspect after N1. This crumb was posted before Andy stated anything about Tans and before Tans posted at all.

Traditional Breadcrumb wrote:RE: Andy and Tans:
I'm goign to read more into this.
I have susp[icions on both,
and may
have soemthign useful to contribute
...when I get through the additional 4 pages of texts...(did I mention you guys talk way too much for me to keep up)?
...
No, it's actually very sensible.
Tans is more and more making snese to me.
More traditional crumb of a standard investigation role of sorts relevant to Andy and Tans with indication that
result does not straight up clear or condemn
either one, but if anything
positive result on Tans
. At this point in time, Andy had claimed taking an action on Tans and Tans had hinted at sending a mod PM to Andy.

Third Crumb direct to Tans wrote:Tans, honestly, I was originally suspicious you were mafia of you after reading through Day 1, but after your interaction with Andy today, I am fairly positive you are not mafia.
Again a crumb that I suspected Tans (hence reason for investigating him), but no longer suspect him. Uncertainty indicates the uncertaintly of whether Tans is townie or 3rd party (he took some action, but it obviously wasn't harmful to Andy). At this point Tans had already hinted that his ability sends a mod-PM to Andy, which is unlikely to be mafia.

Also why the hell would ANYONE lie about timing of posts, ESPECIALLY if they provide LINKS to the POSTS IN QUESTION?

Kast · Thu Sep 29, 2011 7:39 am

with post numbers,
[done]

CRUMBS:
#821 - PRIMARY CRUMB, STANDALONE, UNDISPUTABLE -

At this point, Tans had not even posted anything

#896 - SECOND CRUMB, LINKED, TRADITIONAL -

At this point, Tans had not even posted anything

#1020 - THIRD CRUMB, STANDALONE, TRADITIONAL -

At this point, Andy/Tans had soft claimed that Andy targeted Tans and Tans had some ability that let him know what power was used on him AND that it should send a mod PM

#1109 - CLARIFICATION CRUMB, STANDALONE, OBVIOUS -

At this point, Andy/Tans had soft claimed that Andy targeted Tans and Tans had some ability that let him know what power was used on him AND that it should send a mod PM

ANDY'S CLAIM:
#923 - Andy claims taking a night action and asks if Tans knows what he did
#926 - Andy claims targeting Tans
...too many posts, can't find where he actually claimed roleblocking Tans, but it was somewhere after these posts

TAN'S CLAIM:
#917 - Hinted knowledge of mod PM to Andy
#924 - Tans acknowledges Andy's action~sort of
#927 - Asks Andy to confirm if Andy targeted him
#1097 - Asks mod confirmation about something (potentially related to his ability)
#1121 - Confirms Andy might be telling the truth (about blocking him) but that he could be town or mafia
#1247 - Claims targeting Andy

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 6:39 am

One of
Vezok
/Toasty is mafia
One of hiplop/
Killjoy
is mafia

QFT

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 7:01 am

@Kast - saying they killed Muffin to implicate you doesn't make sense when I was going to investigate you in the plan >_<

(1) We aren't claiming muffin was killed to prevent confirming me. That nonsensical fallacy was a straw man-paraphrased fabrication crapped out by Killjoy, who has clearly demonstrated an inability to actually address points, and instead just name calls, blatantly ignores posts as "flailing" (despite his definition of flailing being someone in immediate danger of lynch, which we aren't) or blatantly misrepresenting and lying.

(2) We argued, IN RESPONSE to KJ's accusation, that muffin's plan would have blocked us, thus if we were obviously not trying to coordinate in our favor (other than the general in favor of town winning).
To go into specifics:
KJ:

Kast is suspicious cuz he coordinated night actions to allow him to not get blocked so he can vanillize people

Kast:

What the hell? No I didn't. I suggested a plan that involved BLOCKING ME, so if I was vanillizer, it would have prevent me from even being able to vanillize. Muffin, a confirmed townie, proposed investigating me instead of blocking me. Then BB vetoed that idea and went back to my original plan where I would be blocked, not investigated.

KJ:

Now you are claiming muffin was killed to prevent him from proving you town! You must be mafia.

Kast:

What the hell? That isn't true, and that ignores what my actual point was!

BB:

You know Kast, KJ is right, mafia wouldn't kill muffin to prevent confirming you because they knew I would investigate you. Ya know. Despite the fact that I, BlackBerry, refused to follow Muffin's plan, insisting that I would not investigate Kast, and forcing muffin to go with the block on Kast plan.

and

(3) You investigating me was NOT part of the plan. See the last post by Muffin. You objected to investigating, claiming it was a waste and you wouldn't do it. Muffin agreed to block me instead and have you investigate Tans. You never indicated otherwise, so that's most likely the assumption everyone worked under. Doesn't matter; we aren't using Muffin's block on us as any justification for anything; we probably should, but we try to play in an objective manner that doesn't require making crazy assumptions or the outright false and contradictory craplogic (ala KJ).

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 8:54 am

KJ wrote:Andy did not follow Kdub's plan because he targeted Ludi with a roleblock which was not part of the plan.

So instead of

actually

following Kdub's plan, Andy just

claimed to

but actually followed Mr. Subliminal's plan. Your objection is irrelevant to the point and purely an attempt to distract/nitpick instead of responding. You can slice it however you want; your premise is still wrong. IN ADDITION TO THIS, Kdub's plan (and whether Andy followed it or not) has no relevance to LAST NIGHT'S events.

Also to be clear, your attempted nitpicking means you did read my points but just decided to not answer or address them. Can we

assume

your attempt to confuse and distract from my points are admission that you have no valid response to them or would that be a "bad assumption that makes you wrong"?

KJ wrote:Unless you are claiming you know he killed Kdub?

This doesn't make any sense. Under what "plan" are you claiming Andy killed Kdub? Did you read your mafia QT and mix-up Andy planning night actions for the mafia team as Andy planning night actions for town?

Additionally, if you have private info confirming/denying who Andy actually blocked on N3, that would be awesome. Even better, if you know for certain that Ludi was blocked instead of Kdub (which you're apparently claiming), then that would clear BB of being a recruit (if you were honest).

BB wrote:Number 1 scum-tell in my books: Using terms such as WIFOM, etc., etc.

And this is

your

pre-established theory?

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 9:08 am

KJ wrote:How is my understanding of NAR wrong?

KJ wrote:Delayer is not a blocking action. It is also in miscellaneous.

NAR wrote:For actions which combine two other actions
use the first one listed
.

Using miscellaneous INSTEAD OF blocking simply because an action is "also in miscellaneous" demonstrates you do not understand how NAR works.

Claiming a "clear" in a situation where the priority of two actions is

THE SAME

further confirms that you don't understand how NAR works.

KJ wrote:And what you just posted as NAR confirms that I cannot possibly be the Vanillalizer.

Attempting to use my brother's post as justification for a false NAR clear ALSO shows that you don't understand how NAR works (my brother did not apply the "Golden Rule"). It also shows that you did not read my brother's post properly. If you did, it would be clear that under BOTH understandings (how NAR actually works AND how my brother thought it works) you are NOT cleared.

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 10:14 am

I love how the entire time KJ has been in the game, he's stated that he thinks Vezok is scum, but he has yet to actually vote on it. It's so obvious they are scum buddies and and he wants everyone to remember he pushed Vezok, once Vezok flips, but he's still hanging onto the chance that he can get a mislynch out of the day before vezok flips.

Kast · Fri Sep 30, 2011 1:43 pm

@TT-
Are you saying there are some good reasons for voting Vezok, but since some people also are using bad reasons you don't want to lynch him? Or are you saying you understand the reasons but think they are all bad? Or something else?

Specifically, if you are worried that BB will try to push a lynch on you as Vezok's buddy after his flip; it seems like you are overestimating how much support BB's attack on you has. It's likely that KJ will jump aboard. However that's probably it. Vezok's flip will almost 100% clear me, and given KJ's botched fake claim investigation on Tans, KJ will be unable to backtrack and push a Tans lynch. That means we'll have at least me and Tans pretty much cleared with KJ as the PoE vanillizer. Also, if Hiplop investigates

either

you OR KJ, it should give you a clear (provided you are town).

Disagree with your assessment about the WLs. BB, Hiplop, Kast, and Toast have all indicated suspicion of at least one if not both claimed WLs. KJ has expressed suspicion of Hiplop conditional of Hiplop not investigating him (retracted after the scumminess of his position was pointed out). Tans and Vezok haven't really said whether they trust WLs one way or the other.

@KJ-

Spoiler: KJ is not reading the game and not trying to find scum. He is right on one point, the volume of crap he keeps posting as he OMGUS tunnels me is unnecessarily distracting from the game.

@Mod/All

-
Gonna be V/LA for the weekend (as per norm).

If someone decides to hammer Vezok before I get back; keep note of how Vezok flips:
If he flips Mafia non-GF, then it is probably best for Hiplop to Day Cop BB.
If he flips GF-Redirector, then investigate Kast.
If he flips GF anything else, then Nikanor is probably the best bet.
If he flips town, then Nikanor is also best.

That should cover all cases. It would be preferable if Hiplop waits until all players have a chance to share their thoughts before investigating; but ultimately the investigation choice is up to him.

Kast · Sun Oct 02, 2011 12:16 pm

@BB-
Your "realization" is EXACTLY why I've BEEN saying Nik/KJ was most probable Vanillizer. Dead cult works, we just have to make sure to hit mafia now.,

@KJ-
Thanks for claiming. Assuming it's true, that means your "investigation" on Tans is fake. That also means Tans is no longer cleared of being Vanillizer. I guess this explains why you refused to "clarify" your "power"; no point clarifying if it's just a fake to protect your recruit.

Your breakdown now looks exactly the same as OS's breakdown. One more attempt to protect your cult from beyond the grave. My money's on Tans as OS's last recruit. It's also quite likely that Tans is both mafia AND the last recruit. That would explain his attempt to lynch obv-mafia-GF Vezok so that his recruit, Tans, would be the last mafia controlling the mafia kill.

Hiplop should investigate Tans now. KJ's first attempt to discredit Hiplop and now request for Hiplop to be lynched is obv an attempt to remove one of the two investigative powers with mafia killing BB tonight to make Tans undetectable. Your claim to have a bodyguard fake claim is another botched failure since you clearly haven't been reading the game. There are repeats of actual roles as well actual roles that coincide with the flipped scum fake claims.

Vezok was likely lying about delaying Tans.

Btw- You're forgiven for being an asshole. When you join the dead thread, you can apologize when you find out how wrong you are (though I guess you already know how wrong you are).

@BB-
Please confirm with mods: If you investigated a mafia member who became a Black Lantern, would he turn out as mafia or non-mafia? My guess is he would flip mafia, hence Nikanor's need to get rid of both Hiplop now, leaving his recruit free to kill you tonight (obv Vezok won't delay his own buddy).

EBWOP:
@KJ-
Lol, you're claiming now that OS could take multiple JoAT actions during the day?
The claims keep changing more and more.

Kast · Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:29 am

We need to hit mafia today. I'm not letting KJ screw town over and pull a last second win now. Look at his posts and behavior again. Look at his claim again. It's the EXACT SAME thing that OS was doing after Ludi got lynched. He's trying to protect his recruit by crying wolf on someone else using a claim that doesn't even explain how he could know the other person is mafia.

@Bodyguard Claim-
-If he

was

telling the truth and knew that Hiplop was lying about bodyguard, then there is no way he could know whether Tans or Kast was teammates with Hiplop. Why try clearing Tans?
--For that matter, the bodyguard role was the one role missing from this setup for balance reasons. It's the only "protection" town has for a claimed PR that still allows the PR to take any action.
--Given the fake claims that were used in the previous game and the claims seen so far, it's pretty obvious that Nikanor got a "BP" fake claim and used that.

@Votes-
-Look at his behavior, he was pushing for a Vezok lynch. If Vezok flipped town, then there's no way he could have won. He would have been the obvious next lynch based on Vezok's flip clearing Tans and Kast; at which point mafia would straight up win.
--For that matter, if Vezok is town and Hiplop is mafia, then he should and could have hammered Vezok. This isn't even a WIFOM situation; if Hiplop was mafia, then a vezok lynch would have been a straight up mafia win. It's like assuming mafia won't night kill when they are 1 night kill away from winning.

@Black Lantern Kill Flavor-
-Aside from that, the mod flavor on Muffin's death scene strongly implies a recruited mafia member (there's also a possibility that Vezok & Tans were both recruited on N3 and N4, but this is less likely given KJ's attempt to lynch Vezok).

While you were sleeping, one of the heroes that had so bravely defeated Nekron yesterday was stabbed through the heart with a long, sharp object.
Some of you believe it was Nekron's scythe, but others think they see burn marks around the wound.
Whatever happened, Digger Harkness will surely be missed.

@Vezok's behavior-
-Aside from that, Vezok's behavior has been scummy as hell.
--His claim to delay on me on N2, delaying a claimed investigative role, makes no sense from a town PoV.
--Also, the complete lurking then suddenly jumping in on a non-mafia lynch wagon as soon as it appears is too "coincidental".

@Summary-
The simplest scenario that fits ALL the evidence (votes, posts, day/night action claims, flips) is that KJ recruited Tans and wanted to "clear" his recruit. Through Tans, he knew that Vezok was the remaining mafia member and was aiming for a Vezok lynch. With a Vezok mafia-GF flip, he could continue his same argument that Kast/Vezok are mafia buddies and claim that Vezok was lying about delaying Kast. Even if we ignored the ridiculousness of 2 mafia GFs and lynched KJ, he would still have a shot at winning since his mafia-recruit would be in charge of the mafia kill (and potentially be in charge of both kill and vanilla).

If we mislynch Hiplop now, then tonight Vezok's obviously not going to delay his buddy. BB will get killed or vanillized so he can't reveal Tans. Town will be down to 2 votes vs the 2 remaining mafia. Vezok wouldn't know whether his buddy is recruited or not, so he'd be stuck going along with a no lynch until the townies are eliminated (though it's unclear how mod would handle an end game with a recruited mafia and a non-recruited mafia...).

Kast · Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:42 am

@BB-
You're doing that thing again where you only look at one possibility, ignore the problem parts that don't make sense, and ignore the other possibilities that make sense without any problems.

@Toast-
The things that stop Tans from being vanillizer are:
-KJ's cult claim that he is town
-Vezok's claim that he delayed him

Problems with those:
-KJ was lying cult and didn't have any way to investigate Tans (and even if he had an investigation, he has no way to determine between a GF or a non-GF).
-Vezok is the obv-mafia-GF, this was clear before the sudden shift to KJ, this is confirmed by KJ's attempt to lynch Vezok (suicide for cult if Vezok was town).

Cult needed to lynch mafia. There's actually a few scenarios I can see (the most likely of which is that he recruited Tans):
-KJ recruited Tans, so he knew Vezok was mafia.
-KJ failed to recruit Vezok so he knew he was lying/mafia (in this case he took a guess as to whether Tans or Kast was mafia, but this is less likely since it doesn't explain his attempt to protect Tans).
-Ludi recruited one of Tans/Vezok N3 and KJ recruited the other one N4 (in this case, leaving BB alone makes even more sense since Vezok GF is safe, and KJ-cult leader would investigate as non-mafia). This would also imply the Vezok lynch was an attempted bus (gives Tans/KJ town-cred) and they would only need a single mislynch after that then tonight kill & recruit for the win.

Least likely since I'd expect a 3 man cult team to just aim for a straight up win.

Kast · Mon Oct 03, 2011 7:55 am

BB wrote:Tans or Kast has to be the other, strongly leaning Kast because of his play and because Tans outted Andrius as a Roleblocker D2. Toasty RBed OS Night 2- confirmed. Vezok delayed OS Night 1 - confirmed. Tans was delayed last night - there was a kill and a vanillia - pretty much confirms him non-mafia.

BB, if Vezok and tans started as mafia, then of COURSE tans knew that Andy was roleblocker. If Vezok is mafia, then we have no confirmation that Tans was delayed.

Let's be clear. If Killjoy is telling the truth, then cult day investigated AND day killed at the same time, when in fact none of them have flipped with roles that indicate multiple mid day powers, and on top of that, they would have to control MULTIPLE investigative powers rather than one shot powers.

So, do we really think it's likely that cult started with 3 players, and ALSO day investigated AND day killed on the same day, and ALSO day investigated another player after their JOAT died?

BB, please do not get distracted by the fact that KJ and Ludi both tried to posthumously buddy with you. They're just trying to get you to mislynch town so the remaining recruit can win.

As Kast indicated, mafia recruited as cult is the obvious explanation for the muffin kill coming from both cult and mafia; Vezok mafia + Tans mafia/cult recruit is the only explanation that is both consistent with Moderator posted scenes and also with the possible claimed actions.