Newbie 1117(Town Wins)

[SomeRandomGuy]

Right, i'm finding this really difficult to decide, infact i've changed my mind a few times already.

I keep looking for partnerships, i've done a VCA for Kad's lynch and the current votes:

.|Vote count 8|.

BBmolla-3(

kad2361

, verydark, bvoigt)

kad2361

-5(

SomeRandomGuy

, BBmolla,

Haze

, ToastyToast, VoidedMafia)Lynched
ToastyToast-1(zMuffinMan)

Not Voting-0
With 9 alive it takes 5 votes to lynch


BBmolla-2(bvoigt, VeryDark, Voided)L-1
zMuffinMan-1(

SomeRandomGuy

)
bvoigt-2(zMuffinMan, BBmolla, Toastytoast)L-1

This is from my point of view how everything maps out, Toasty has been on the same wagon as BB both times, bv has both times been voting for BB, BB was quick on both wagons. Muffin did nothing in the day 1 lynch and today has his vote on bv. There needs to be scum on the Kad wagon, i know i'm not scum, i know that haze wasn't, it leaves BB, toasty and voided if i were to choose from them? I'd probably choose BB.
I get the feeling a toastytoast wagon was meant to have formed in day 1, taking away from the BB wagon, this time perhaps a bv one? 2 wagons opposing BB's were started or attempted at starting by Muffin.
The amount of suspicion on BB has been fairly constant, he's gotten out of a spot once, where he soft claimed, took it back, etc and i believe even if by chance i'm wrong, we'll get more from his death than if i'm wrong about Bv.

VOTE: BBmolla

[SomeRandomGuy]

I really do hope i'm right, but on a read back he seems most likely. With the no role claim from Bv it's unwise to lynch also. Tonights results will be interesting.

[ToastyToast]

@voided: Um, out of all the players here you have the most blatant connection with bv. He defended your replacement and he defended you. He also formed a counter-case on me.

That was at Muffin, not you.
Also, the latter part is irrelevant to that.

I know. I let Muffin give his answer. And then I gave mine.

[ToastyToast]

Yeah, bv sure did a super-town thing by refusing to claim when he was at L-1 and had to go on V/LA during deadline.

Ugh, I'm like 90% sure that BB is town, but I guess we'll see.

[BBmolla]

Whelp. Good luck Town, keep in mind tomorrow is LYLO. If there is a cop PR he should probably out tomorrow imo. Also, protective roles should probably be on SRG/Muffin.

[BBmolla]

EBWOP: LYLO and MYLO.

[zMuffinMan]

I'm really not happy that bv was allowed to live today. I checked this before I went to sleep and saw SRG saying he'd hammer bv and thought "OK cool". Wake up to find BB hammered, sorely disappointed.

Just getting my reads out before night starts.

verydark is very likely town. SRG is very likely town. Toasty I'm still meh about but he looks more town today than he did D1, so the scum team is probably Voided+bv.

If we go to LyLo tomorrow,

take your time, carefully analyse the game, do not take for granted any of your previous suspicions and keep an open mind. Don't vote recklessly, start with FoSes, only vote when you're confident.

^ Mostly directed at verydark, since he's really the only legit newbie left.

[SomeRandomGuy]

I'm guessing then since the lack of admission of guilt from BB that i made a bad choice, i was honestly flipping between the 2 of them almost constantly. I'm not sure what this means in terms of Bv, i think looking back at everything in context of BB being confirmed town may give more to work with though. And hopefully a good result or 2 in this night phase will help a lot.

[drmyshottyizsik]

.|Vote count 12|.

BBmolla-4(bvoigt, VeryDark, voidedmafia, somerandomguy)

Lynched

VoidedMafia-0
SomeRandomGuy-0
verydark-0
ToastyToast-0
zMuffinMan-0
bvoigt-3(zMuffinMan, BBmolla, toastytoast)

L-1

Not Voting-0

With 7 alive it takes 4 votes to lynch

If there are any problems tell me.

BBmolla,

a VT

, has been lynched day 2. It is now night 2. Night ends in 72 hours.

[drmyshottyizsik]

You all awake to a scream!

zMuffinMan,

a VT,

has been killed night 2.

It is now day three. Day three ends in 3 weeks!

[verydark]

Ok, this is the farthest I've got in a mafia game- so what generally happens on D3?

Since none of the PR have been killed, I think it would be beneficial to find out what cop/doctor/jailkeeper actions have been taken, and how they have affected the outcome of the game thus far.

Maybe an SC or IC can shed some light as to the procedure for today?

[SomeRandomGuy]

Firstly we need to not drop our votes down easily - a misvote means scum can hammer.

I'm unsure on the claims - it really depends what information people have that they can claim with, however we should wait it out a little i expect as getting to scum without reveals would surely be best.

The kad lynch:

.|Vote count 8|.

BBmolla-3(

kad2361

, verydark, bvoigt)
kad2361-5(

SomeRandomGuy, BBmolla, Haze,

ToastyToast, VoidedMafia)Lynched
ToastyToast-1(

zMuffinMan

)

.|Vote count 12|.
BBmolla-4(bvoigt, VeryDark, voidedmafia,

somerandomguy

)Lynched
VoidedMafia-0
SomeRandomGuy-0
verydark-0
ToastyToast-0
zMuffinMan-0
bvoigt-3(

zMuffinMan, BBmolla,

toastytoast)L-1

[SomeRandomGuy]

Now, i've coloured the 2 lynches in things as i see them, obviously you do not know for sure whether or not i am town, but i do and thus the colours.

the only 2 people to be on both of the lynches are myself and voided.

Kad has the largest number of town that i can make out of any lynch - notice, it's the first 3 votes with him that are all town, the scum watched that one happen
How to use this information?
Look at Toasty and Voided, looking for anything suspicious in the way they moved the wagon forward.
Toasty and Bv both were on one of the bad lynches, but not together.
Toasty voted Bv in the day BB was lynched, how hard did he push for Bv to be lynched? Did he seem to try and persuade that way, or subtly knock me away from it?
Verydark is in a similar situation as Bv - voting BB both days/

What's obvious is that i've been incredibly off with my reads, there was times where i was suspicious of both BB and Muffin, Kad also.

Please analyse and see if there's anything else you can see that i missed, i've not done much work on myself, since i know my alignment, so feel free.

[SomeRandomGuy]

@Bv + voided - thoughts on Toasty please
@Toasty + very dark - thoughts on Bv please

This is in context of the votes, however if you want to expand it would be appreciated.

[SomeRandomGuy]

Just remembered that toasty's vote was missed and he had started the Kad wagon.

I'll post who the scum is following answers / arguments.

[bvoigt]

Ok, this is the farthest I've got in a mafia game- so what generally happens on D3?

Since none of the PR have been killed, I think it would be beneficial to find out what cop/doctor/jailkeeper actions have been taken, and how they have affected the outcome of the game thus far.

Maybe an SC or IC can shed some light as to the procedure for today?

Since it's LyLo, the usual procedure is to massclaim. It does no good to keep power roles hidden if we don't lynch correctly, so we want to have as much information out there as we can. You'll see on the wiki page a description of popcorn-style massclaiming, and (from what I've seen) it is the most common and effective method.

And this has been mentioned already, but don't vote until you're sure of your top suspect.

Since I had 3 votes on me yesterday, should I claim first?

My top suspect is probably Voidedmafia. Since 2 of the 3 people who were voting me flipped town, there is guaranteed to be at least one scum on BB's wagon. And Voided fits the bill, both based on my other reads, and the way he voted. I know I'm town, and verydark and SRG don't seem like scum to me. Voided, on the other hand, has been somewhat scummy. Finally, his vote here was the most scum-motivated. (He later unvoted, but then revoted BB without any additional reasons.) It didn't seem like he truly believed BB was scum, just unhelpful:

BB, OBVIOUSLY you're gonna get called out on it.

Okay, look, we coddled you (well, not necessarily including me at this point) through D1 until you showed signs of being helpful (remember this being my reason for hammering kad?). Now, you're not helping, and I'm done coddling you.

Vote: BBmolla

. If it takes L-1 or the threat of a hammer (assuming the latter is actually going to be on the table soon) to get you to actually DO SOMETHING, then so be it.

@Bv + voided - thoughts on Toasty please
@Toasty + very dark - thoughts on Bv please

This is in context of the votes, however if you want to expand it would be appreciated.

I'd say the two town flips on a town wagon would make him more likely to be scum. But there's no guarantee of at least one scum, like the BB wagon. For that reason, I'd probably prefer a Voided lynch.

[ToastyToast]

@SRG: My thoughts on bv are the same as my thoughts on him yesterday.

bv and voided are still looking like the scum team to me.
PEDIT: Even with the last post considered
Also, I was only on one wagon where town flipped. WTF u talkin about?

Also, I'm in agreement with SRG that we should sort out our thoughts on each player first b4 massclaiming. The main advantage of a massclaim in a setup like this is that we basically get two confirmed town with results.

I'm not saying wait all day but I want to hear from everyone first. At this point having 2conf town is more valuable then having hidden PR's

[ToastyToast]

Actually, let's claim now.

bv, you claim first. I'll claim second.

[SomeRandomGuy]

I'll go third

[SomeRandomGuy]

In actual fact, I'd like to go last, I think this would be a better sequence.

[SomeRandomGuy]

How does the rolecop effect this by the way? It would seem that scum have had a whole night and possible role cop results to base their claims on.

[ToastyToast]

scum HAS to claim VT. There are only 2 town PR's and claiming such makes them a target.

Rolecop's allow scum to find PR's w/o needing them to claim.

Does that answer your question?

[SomeRandomGuy]

scum HAS to claim VT. There are only 2 town PR's and claiming such makes them a target.

Rolecop's allow scum to find PR's w/o needing them to claim.

Does that answer your question?

It does kinda

[bvoigt]

I am just a Townie. I think we should do popcorn style, where the person who claims chooses who goes next. I'd like Voided next, please.

@SRG: My thoughts on bv are the same as my thoughts on him yesterday.

bv and voided are still looking like the scum team to me.
PEDIT: Even with the last post considered
Also, I was only on one wagon where town flipped. WTF u talkin about?

I meant that the wagon on me yesterday had two townies, and you, on it.

Also, I'm in agreement with SRG that we should sort out our thoughts on each player first b4 massclaiming. The main advantage of a massclaim in a setup like this is that we basically get two confirmed town with results.

I'm not saying wait all day but I want to hear from everyone first. At this point having 2conf town is more valuable then having hidden PR's

Well, they wouldn't be confirmed town. We might have an extra VT, and only one power role.

[verydark]

scum HAS to claim VT. There are only 2 town PR's and claiming such makes them a target.

Not true, because I'm the LAST

VT

. There are 5 VT's, and 4 are dead.

This is why I was so concerned with the amount of VT's, starting as early as Post #395

I'm leery of BB's VT claim, because that would mean there are 2 more VT's left, but 2 mafia, and 2 PRs. So out of the 3 people whose roles have been revealed, they are

ALL

VT? I don't like those odds.

There is a 25% chance there is one more VT besides me because of the "PR" distribution.

P-EDIT:

Yeah, the chances of you being vanilla are REMOTE.

VOTE: Bvoigt