Mystery Box Mafia - Game Over

[Neruz]

Oh i forgot you were in the damn hydra. Blargh.

[MagnaofIllusion]

While showering this morning I realized I had made a critical error in assessing the relative levels of scumminess in my analysis post. The wagons and calculation of raw numbers of scum are valid but I’m revising the weighting as follows …

Day 1

1 scum in (Empking, Neruz) - +.5 scum value each

2 scum in (Sath, InHim, Lobster, Junox, Emp) - +.4 scum value each.

Day 2

InHim - -1 scum value

1 scum in (Neruz, Spyrex, Sathoris, Junox) - +.25 scum value

1 scum in (Empking, Spyrex) – +.5 scum value each
2 scum in (Sath, dana, Lobster, Neruz, Gamma, Junox) - +.33 scum value each

Day 3

2 scum in (Lobster, Spyrex, dana, Sath, Gamma) - +.4 scum value each

1 scum in (Inhim, Junox, Empking) - +.33 scum value each

The new Net scum values

–

Empking – 1.73
Neruz – 1.08
Sathoris – 1.38
InHim – Negative value
Lobster – 1.13
Junox – 1.31
Spyrex – 1.15
Dana – 0.73
Gammagooey – 0.73

So after revising my analysis output I find multiple tiers of weighting

Top Tier – Empking, Sathoris, Junox
Middle Tier – Spyrex, Lobster, Neruz
Bottom Tier – Dana, Gamma
Not scum Tier - InHim

[inHimshallibe]

Have you ever used this before, Magna?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Have you ever used this before, Magna?

Have I ever used Vote Count analysis before? Tons of times.

Have I ever used weighted values based on expected scum distribution? No, I've adopted that from DGB's Scumputer methodology. I wanted to see how the blending of the two methods (my hunting for critical information all the VCs mixed with DGB's statistical leaning) worked out.

[inHimshallibe]

PERSONS OF INTEREST:

Rikana |||||||| = 8

dana |||||||| = 8
MoI ||||| = 5
Empking ||||||| = 7

DeathNote ||||||| = 7

Junox |||||||| = 8
SpyreX |||||| = 6
LobsterCatapult |||||| = 6
Gammagooey | = 1
Neruz | = 1
Sathoris || = 2



Right now, the ones to stick out to me most are {

Rikana

, dana}, Empking, and SpyreX

dana, Empking, SpyreX

Will make it my duty to read isos.

[inHimshallibe]

Have you ever used this before, Magna?

Have I ever used Vote Count analysis before? Tons of times.

Have I ever used weighted values based on expected scum distribution? No, I've adopted that from DGB's Scumputer methodology. I wanted to see how the blending of the two methods (my hunting for critical information all the VCs mixed with DGB's statistical leaning) worked out.

I mainly meant the scumputering.

Let's look at the CSL lynch and the xvart lynch.

[inHimshallibe]

YamiChan

(3) -

Rikana

,

Toon Fighter

, danakillsu

CSL

(13) -

ReaperCharlie

,

CooLDoG

, Sathoris, inHimshallibe, LobsterCatapult, JunoxJuls,

YamiChan

,

DeathNote

,

Lady Lambdadelta

, Empkingkondi2424,

Hoopla

,

hohum

,

Mastermind of Sin

Rikana

(1) - SpyreX

ReaperCharlie

(3) -

DeityKabuto

,

xvart

,

CSL

Not Voting(5) -

bvoigt

, Gammagooeyjmj3000,

Primate

, MagnaofIllusion, Neruz

ReaperCharlie

(2) - inHimshallibe,

hohum

CooLDoG

(1) -

Primate

xvart

(10) - MagnaofIllusion,

ReaperCharlie

,

Kublai Khan

, Neruz, SpyreX, Sathoris,

DeityKabuto

,

CoolDoG

,

xvart

, Junox

Primate

(1) -

Rikana

DeityKabuto

(1) - Empking


Not Voting(4) - danakillsu,

DeathNote

, LobsterCatapult, jmj3000

[MagnaofIllusion]

BTW InHim I like my coloring system better as it specifically highlights the Third Parties as such.

Just saying.

[inHimshallibe]

Third Parties are town in the eyes of scum until they are claimed to be such. CSL was acting really scummy (because of Jester lolz) but Mafia knew he wasn't a partner of theirs. May be interesting to see reactions to CSL's play. That's the next order of business.

---

In a vacuum, these are town to scum based on the voting:

inHim on 3P, off scum and on this other scum
Junox on 3P, on scum
Sathoris on 3P, on scum
Magna off 3P, on scum
Neruz off 3P, on scum

SpyreX on town, on scum
Gamma off 3P, off scum (jmj powerlurk)

dana on town, off scum
LC on 3P, off scum
Empking on 3P, on town

Sweet spot on the CSL lynch: Sathoris, inHimshallibe, LobsterCatapult, JunoxJuls
Off-voting the CSL lynch: SpyreX, dana
Not voting: Gamma, MoI, Neruz

Off-voting the xvart lynch: Empking, inHim
Not voting: dana, LC, Gamma

[Seraphim]

Sathoris has requested replacement. Looking for a Sathoris replacement, wish me luck. Votecount later today.

[inHimshallibe]

vote: Empking

[MagnaofIllusion]

MoD – I’ll be V/LA from 4pm EST today until Monday for my usual weekend family duties.

@MOD – Can we have a vote-count please

.

--

@InHim

– Meh, to each their own. Of course scum think of 3rd Parties as Town for purposes of mis-lynching. I still like the clarity that having them separately colored brings to my review of the wagons.

--

Empking is my number 1 suspect by far based on his Voting pattern. So looking at his (and Kondi’s if he actually posted) ISO yields the following observations –

Kondi RVS votes jmj (Gammagooey) in ISO 0.

Kondi posted the whole “I have a level 2 investigative box” line Day 1. I haven’t seen any confirmation that it was traded away.

@EMPKING – What happened to said box? Did you use it? If you traded it who did it go to?

Kondi votes ReaperCharlie in ISO 7 (post 372) for the reason “You need to die”. In context this is after CSL says the exact same thing in post 369 and right after I voted for RC for basically trolling the game. Possible weak hop on partner wagon? Perhaps.

Yet 6 hours later he immediately votes CSL in ISO 8 when CSL turned on the Jester Magic Touch he has. No mention of Reaper in the post and also mentions that Yami needs vigged.

Watch. We're all town, and our goal is only to lynch to Serial Killer, Seraphim.

This strikes me as odd in downplaying the possibility of Mafia when it was explicitly listed by said Mod in the rules. Not sure if Kondi scum would be so brashly wrong.
I’m leaning scummy for the follow post at ISO 16 –

Another thing easily found on the front page.

Chastizing Yami for missing out on basic Mod provide info but speculating about no Mafia? Hmmm …

The rest of his ISO after 16 is basically screwing with Yami in Twilight.

Empking’s ISO is typical for him (aka not surprising) – short responses and many votes with little to no support for why.

FOS: Sathoris - I think scum is going for an easy lynch wrt RC but ignoring their buddy.

This strikes me as suspect. He FOSes Sathoris with the ostensible reason that scum are pushing an easy lynch on Reaper but ignoring their buddies.

What’s suspect is that when he posted this Sathoris was voting InHim. So throwing an FOS on Sathoris makes no sense since he wasn’t doing the actions that Empking is claiming is scummy.

ISO 5 – Direct attack on DK for pushing ReaperCharlie. I find this suspect in that xvart was the absolute leading voice on the RC wagon Day 2 and nothing appears in Empking’s ISO about xvart.

The next stretch of his ISO is basically mild question tossing (with no followup or evident scum-hunting motivations) and some votes on Gamma and InHim.

I already have said I find Empking very scummy for his follow the Cop tactics revolving around Junox’s transparent ‘gambit’ regarding fake-claiming a Guilty result on Neruz.

His ISO really doesn’t have much meat to it when looking for scum-hunting.

--

I’ll be looking at the two other supects I have either today or when I get back from V/LA

[Empking]

Magna:
1. Kondi used it.
2. I was calling Sathoris the buddy that the scum were ignoring. (Due to his even worse PR.)

[Gammagooey]

Hey Empking can I get a few non-Neruz reads from you? Town/scum/odd/gut/whatever are all fine.

[Empking]

Junox - 100% town
Spy & MOI - Gut says town
Dana - The actual scum lurker (who's doing everything in his power to remain unnoticed.)

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna:
1. Kondi used it.
2. I was calling Sathoris the buddy that the scum were ignoring. (Due to his even worse PR.)

1. Explain to me why someone who is Town and openly claimed an Investigative Box Day 1 is still alive Day 5.
2. So Sathoris was scum for having a bad PR and was being ignored? Why haven't you mentioned him in any significant manner since then?

[Gammagooey]

@Emp-I was kiiiiind of hoping for an opinion on Lobster/inhims. Any thoughts on them?

[Empking]

Magna:
1. Kondi used it.
2. I was calling Sathoris the buddy that the scum were ignoring. (Due to his even worse PR.)

1. Explain to me why someone who is Town and openly claimed an Investigative Box Day 1 is still alive Day 5.

Because it hasnb't come to fruitation.

2. So Sathoris was scum for having a bad PR and was being ignored? Why haven't you mentioned him in any significant manner since then?

Mainly because I was focused on other things until RC which obviously make the think worthless.

Gamma: Scummy side of null. Sorry. Haven't really noticed them much. One is probably scum but I don't think I can accurately pinpoint which one (without some more flips).

[MagnaofIllusion]

Because it hasnb't come to fruitation.

Um, whut?

1. Player A claims to have a useable box with an Investigative role.
2. Player A doesn’t get killed for 4 Nights while this information and possible Investigation powers are afoot.

Explain how that make any sense. Whatever it was you wrote above is meaningless.

Mainly because I was focused on other things until RC which obviously make the think worthless.

Why does Reaper getting himself modkilled and flipping scum make his Post Restriction any less a Mafia gambit possibility? Sath ‘opened’ his box at just the right time to present a suitably annoying Post Restriction to support that Reaper’s was ‘valid’. Exactly at the same time that he was under heavy pressure from xvart, his partner. I can certainly see that as a gambit to confirm one of either xvart or Reaper that blew up when xvart got lynched and Reaper derped himself out of the game.

[Empking]

Because it hasnb't come to fruitation.

Um, whut?

1. Player A claims to have a useable box with an Investigative role.
2. Player A doesn’t get killed for 4 Nights while this information and possible Investigation powers are afoot.

Explain how that make any sense. Whatever it was you wrote above is meaningless.

That box hasn't produced any useful info. There are much more pressing things for the scum to night kill.

Mainly because I was focused on other things until RC which obviously make the think worthless.

Why does Reaper getting himself modkilled and flipping scum make his Post Restriction any less a Mafia gambit possibility? Sath ‘opened’ his box at just the right time to present a suitably annoying Post Restriction to support that Reaper’s was ‘valid’. Exactly at the same time that he was under heavy pressure from xvart, his partner. I can certainly see that as a gambit to confirm one of either xvart or Reaper that blew up when xvart got lynched and Reaper derped himself out of the game.

And that's a perfectly valid theory. It seems to be one of much moremasterplannish than I'll buy though. And I've nerver supported this theory. The therory I was working for calling Sathoris scum (Double standards to to protect the scum-buddy Sathoris while lynch the innocent RC) has been proven false.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That box hasn't produced any useful info. There are much more pressing things for the scum to night kill.

So your theory is that scum would have more pressing players to kill than a possible Investigative role that each Night carried a higher and higher chance they might through dumb luck or good play identify scum?

No. Scum don't kill the claimed Cop / Tracker Day 6 after he claimed a single guilty. They kill him before he even gets the chance to do so.

VOTE: Empking

[Empking]

That box hasn't produced any useful info. There are much more pressing things for the scum to night kill.

So your theory is that scum would have more pressing players to kill than a possible Investigative role that each Night carried a higher and higher chance they might through dumb luck or good play identify scum?

No. Scum don't kill the claimed

Cop / Tracker

Day 6 after he claimed a single guilty.

Level 2 remember.

[Seraphim]

Vote Count:

Empking(4)

- Gammagooey, Neruz, inHimshallibe, MagnaofIllusion

Sathoris(1)

- danakillsu

Neruz(1)

- Empking

Not Voting(4)

- Junox, SpyreX, Sathoris, LobsterCatapult

With 10 alive, it is 6 to lynch.

Deadline is in

(expired on 2011-08-08 09:00:00)

[Junox]

@MOI: Wasn't Kondi supposed to have traded the box away? So how would that make kondi/emp a target for having the investigation box if it was supposed to have been traded away?

[MagnaofIllusion]

@MOI: Wasn't Kondi supposed to have traded the box away? So how would that make kondi/emp a target for having the investigation box if it was supposed to have been traded away?

You are saying that scum absolutely took him at Kondi's word that he was trading it (when Empking has revealed he clearly didn't after the fact) and would pass him over Day after Day because he couldn't

POSSIBLY

be gambitting with the Trade talk?

I just want to be absolutely clear on your thinking.