[Mini 1205] Tough Guy Mafia - Game Over!

[bobsnox]

haha Hez that's a great post. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that Hez is town based purely on that.

But Yank isn't happening today, so let's get something else going.

[Rainbowdash]

I'm sorry guys, things have come up I need to /replace out. It'd be unfair for me to keep stalling the game.

So this means deadline extension right?

@Hez - We are not lynching Yank. You ponies will have to drag me kicking and screaming across the finish line to make that one happen. Wicked who is a top read of yours is getting voted. Im trying to get Vifam voted who is also a top read. Move your vote where its going to contribute since your little statement vote or whatever it is won't help anypony here.

[bobsnox]

I could go for a vifam lynch. His ISO is lolscum - especially at the beginning. And his suspect list includes town reads for me.

[Wickedestjr]

Okay... sorry it took so long, but here is my case against avasthearties. The four points are listed in order from weakest to strongest.

Wickedestjr's avasthearties Case

I.

In post 296, avasthearties posts his thoughts on the Yonzy/Vifam slot:

I guess Yonzy is out now and in comes Vifam, who I think is making up for the dumbassery of his predecessor. Good reasonable defense provided for Yonzy's cluelessness. Time will tell how useful Vifam is, but I'd say currently he's about a 1 on a scale of -5 to 5 (with -5 being confirmed scum and 5 being confirmed town).

First of all, these comments regarding Vifam don't make any sense. avasthearties says that Vifam provided a good reasonable defense for Yonzy's cluelessness but all Vifam said about his predecessor was:

The guy I replaced was a derpasaures, though.

avasthearties says that Vifam is making up for the dumbassery of Yonzy but also says that time will tell how useful Vifam is. Those contradictory points are the only reasons avasthearties provides to justify his Vifam read and this whole paragraph seems like useless fluff. And IIRC there was never any followup to these comments, anyway.

For these reasons, I'm curious why avasthearties even felt the need to give his read on Vifam rather than wait until after seeing more from him. I don't think it was because anybody asked him about his read (or at least I didn't see anybody ask him about his Vifam read). It wasn't because he was giving his thoughts on all of the players. It wasn't because he was giving his thoughts on the replacements, because he didn't say anything about Rainbowdash. He didn't have anything helpful to say about Vifam, wanted to hear more from him, and didn't give a strong read on him either way, so why did he even post his read on Vifam? I see a possible connection. It looks like avasthearties scum may have felt obligated to say something about his scumbuddy. Either that, or avasthearties scum is just trying to appear helpful and didn't do a very good job of it.

II.

This was something avasthearties said after I voted him, but I find it suspicious and thought I'd include it in my case anyway. After I post my scumlist, avasthearties, in his post 398 says:

It's pretty much an unsurprise that Wicked votes for me seeing as I'm in 2nd place for the rope necklace contest... and he's in first. It seems as though he's decided to try to help push me over the edge to keep himself alive... Well I'm going to read through Wicked's iso and should have another post coming soon.

avasthearties undermines my vote for him with bad reasoning. He says that my vote looks like an attempt to save myself, but this logic is bad for two reasons:

• This same point could easily be used against me if I had voted for bobsnox or tarsonisocelot (somebody I had already expressed suspicion of) instead.
  
• Trying to prevent my lynch this late in the day isn't a scumtell. I would want to do it as both allignments because, in a mini normal, any player's lynch (regardless of said player's allignment) makes their win condition more difficult to acheive.

That's not the only issue I have with this post, though. This post includes IIoA because he implies suspicion of me but never does say that he actually suspects me. I also think that the implied suspicion feels pretty opportunistic.

III.

For most of the day avasthearties tunneled on Kid Know Nothing for what I felt were weak reasons. The vote boils down to Kid Know Nothing casting a reasonless vote IIRC. This is especially strange considering Kid Know Nothing wasn't the only person to vote without giving a reason. bobsnox, HH, and I are all also guilty of voting without reason in this game. YankCane brought up bobsnox's reasonless vote and avasthearties responded by saying:

And as for 13,

he explained his vote in between then and my post,

unlike KKN who only provided a BS "I wanted to see who would overreact" answer after the fact.

...which strikes me as an unusual defense because bobsnox only explained the vote in post 257 because Vifam questioned it. So bobsnox didn't explain his vote until Vifam asked him about it, but avasthearties let him get away with it simply because he ('he' being avasthearties) didn't have to bother asking him about it.

avasthearties never does try to explain why they didn't question Horrifying Hero and I. This is even worse. He voted Kid Know Nothing for

posting a vote without giving reasons

,

explaining

only after being asked about it, and

giving bad reasons

for withholding his case. However, I would think that avasthearties would be much more interested in voting Horrifying Hero for

posting a vote and insisting they are voting scum, but without giving reasons

,

not explaining

even after being asked to, and

giving no reasons

for withholding their case. Instead, avasthearties, when commenting on Horrifying Hero, says:

I don't really get the calls against HH though. I don't really see anything scummy coming from them, and the gambit in the beginning just strikes me as a little too... conspicuous, I guess, to be done by scum.

So Horrifying Hero's reasonless suspicion was too suspicious to be coming from scum, but Kid Know Nothing's reasonless vote was voteworthy. avasthearties completely ignored my reasonless vote.

IV.

My biggest issue with avasthearties is his take on the Yank vs. Hez exchange in post 296:

Ah Christ that was a pain in the ass to read, and frankly for little value. There really wasn't much actual content to be garnered from those several back and forth pages, except for a few interesting statements like:

bobsnox: Look again. Determine again. Hez is scum, let's not look elsewhere.

That big show managed to achieve that, as it is pretty hard to look anywhere but there with several pages of arguing. Now discussion has been moved off of KKN and onto that firestorm. I don't like the result of this attention whoring, which leads me to

FOS: Yank

for now. I just find it suspicious that when the bandwagon on KKN started growing suddenly an arguement forms that overshadows everything else. Obviously Hez is responsible for that as well, but the reason it's Yank I am FOSing is simply that unusual statement above. If anything, there is the possibility that they could both be scum bussing eachother to get the heat off of KKN.

Town's role in this game is to scumhunt. We do this by figuring out if a player truly believes everything they say. I have a lot of trouble believing that avasthearties actually believes what he is saying here and that is a reason why I have reached the conclusion that he is mafia. Specifically, I don't think avasthearties actually believes in the possibility of a Yank-Hez-KKN scumteam and I have many reasons for drawing this conclusion and for disliking this post otherwise, ordered from weakest to strongest:

a.)

avasthearties begins the post by complaining about the exchange. The first two sentences of this quote seem really out of place coming from somebody who has drawn the conclusion that the two players in the exchange could possibly both be scum.

b.)

avasthearties gives Yank an FoS simply because he said he didn't want to look elsewhere. So, basically, avasthearties gave Yank an FoS for tunneling. Two problems with this: avasthearties was tunneling on Kid Know Nothing up until he made this post

and

HezLucky had the exact same attitude towards Yank, so it is odd that avasthearties didn't give Hez an FoS. Also, avasthearties' point seems like a pretty easy/weak reason to attack Yank.

c.)

It's pretty clear what avasthearties' real motivation is for bringing up a Yank-Hez-KKN scumteam possibility. He's trying to push a KKN mislynch and didn't like how KKN had been forgotten.

d.)

Yank and Hez being scumbuddies is, itself, a pretty crazy and unbelievable theory and avasthearties' belief that this could be the case is suspicious. However, the reason he gives for this theory is even worse. He believes that two scum partners would bus the heck out of eachother for 5 pages straight and thus put all of the attention on them just so they could get three serious votes off of their other scumbuddy. So this team would essentially be trying to put all the attention on two of their members just to remove three votes worth of attention from one of their members.

I think that there is no way avasthearties actually believes this is possible.

TL;DR - avasthearties is scum, so lynch him instead.

[bobsnox]

hey I'm good with that too, and even more sure Wicked is not scum.

[Rainbowdash]

I will bite.

unvote
Vote Avas

Its either Avas or Vifam today, which one really doesn't matter too much to me since after that case, they both look pretty bad, and like possible partners.

[YankCane151]

Not going to touch the mentions of me on Hez's wall, but I swear there's a team with Hez and Snox. He mentions suspicions of Bob on his wall but fails to add to his "richter scale", and then later gives him a couple of positive "richters". Yawn. Someone ask him to explain why Snox is so town, because he's going to ignore everything I say anyways. Also ask him to comment on Snox's wagoning too.

Unvote, Vote:avasthearties

The case on him is solid and I don't particularly like the case on Wicked, because as he said, it's based on him being V/LA. There needs to be a better case on him than "for the heck of it" before I see him as scum(which HH claims he will provide, so.)

[YankCane151]

Snox, why do you think Hez' blatant tunneling of me and anti-town stance where he is 'not contributing to town' and 'single-minded' and 'pushing for only one person's lynch' and 'dragging out the argument more' is town? Because it was a scum read when I 'did it'.

Hez, control him better, please.

[LobsterCatapult]

@ rainbow, where did vifam come from?

bigger post after project runway!

[Rainbowdash]

@ rainbow, where did vifam come from?

Really?

Vifam is a mix of a necessary lynch for deadline, scum shot and informational lynch.

Most of what he did in the early game is just defending what his predicessor did. He is far more concerned with what happened to Yonzy and half attacking those who put pressure on that slot than actually scumhunting. There is a vote on Hez that appears to be based on Yanks case (which no offense was pretty poor), and after that nothing. Eventually he wants attention to shift off of Hez/Yank but doesn't mention what his current reads of those two are, it should be noted that he wants a shift to LC, bob or el simo. No attempt to distinguish between any of these three, or actually move a wagon is taken.

Then there are the really wierd posts. For example he calls CA town early, but seems to be interested in another town read (Yank) no longer thinking that CA is scum. This is the kind of stuff you are supposed to dream of as town, two at war town reads deciding they have been wrong? Its perfect beyond reason.

Then there is his case on I have no idea who that is incoming apparently. His little "oh noez L-1" post just makes my mane stand on end a bit as well. Something is seriously wrong here, he has coasted this entire game adding almost nothing, while continuing to work on a post, despite clearly having kept up with this game.

[el simo]

I could bite into an avast lynch, still haven't seen anything condemning about Wicked. Would still highly prefer bob I struggle to understand how anyone can rate him as town.

[Rainbowdash]

L-2, deadline in about 24 hours.

@avast

- Claim in your next post.

Oh and if Avas-Vifam are both scum, someone lynch el simo if im not around at that point.

@simo - Let's play a game! Bob reveals in his next post, he is an Innocent Child! Who do you vote? WHO DO YOU VOTE! Subtle hint - your answer should be where you move your vote to. Despite there being a chance for Bob to be scum here, the ship has sailed there and its a two pony race, neither of which is me for someone who I sure had a coy comment.

[HezLucky]

Oh look, every single one of my scumreads is voting for avasthehearties. I smell that being a counterwagon.

{Looks to see who it's a counterwagon against}

Oh, that's right.

Unvote, Vote: Wicked

[el simo]

I've already claimed avast. Nobody has presented me with a case on Wicked, despite asking numerous times.

[HezLucky]

I did a quick check. Right now I have the wagons at 5-5:

Wickedestjr - 5 (Horrifying Hero, tarsonisocelot, HezLucky, LobsterCatapult, ConfidAnon)
avasthearties - 5 (Kid Know Nothing, bobsnox,

wickedestjr, Rainbowdash, YankCane

)
bobsnox - 2 (avasthearties, el simo)
HezLucky - 1 (Vifam)

Of course, two problems:
- We have three useless votes. As much as I want to lynch YankCane, I can't fucking do it today. Just like none of the 3 people not on Wicked or avast are going to get their choice today. This CLEARLY looks like a case of town versus scum.

My biggest problem? Nearly all of my town reads are on Wicked, as well as myself, and I absolutely despise those on the avast wagon. I have scum reads on thoes that are bolded, as well as Vifam.

Oh, and there's another problem. It's this guy:

hey I'm good with that too, and even more sure Wicked is not scum.

You play this game with your emotions, and not with your head. It's how I play as well. It makes you obvtown as fuck. Unfortunately, it makes you wrong more often than not. Pointblank: you're on the wrong wagon.




EBWOP: el simo, a lot of the (my) problem with Wicked is, like, the 10 billion connections we see between him and certain other people in this game that could potentially be his scumpartners. In other words, I don't like his interaction with others. Especially with those on the wagon counter to his. I've seen your scumlist, el simo, and it's just so... different ... from anyone else's in this game (IIRC) that I don't think anyone's going to be convincing you of Wicked-scum without some flips changing your scumdar. Still, your vote is useless where it is and you should move it.

[HezLucky]

I did a quick check. Right now I have the wagons at 5-5:

Wickedestjr - 5 (Horrifying Hero, tarsonisocelot, HezLucky, LobsterCatapult, ConfidAnon)
avasthearties - 5 (Kid Know Nothing, bobsnox,

wickedestjr, Rainbowdash, YankCane

)
bobsnox - 2 (avasthearties, el simo)
HezLucky - 1 (Vifam)

Of course, two problems:
- We have three useless votes. As much as I want to lynch YankCane, I can't fucking do it today. Just like none of the 3 people not on Wicked or avast are going to get their choice today. This CLEARLY looks like a case of town versus scum.

My biggest problem? Nearly all of my town reads are on Wicked, as well as myself, and I absolutely despise those on the avast wagon. I have scum reads on thoes that are bolded, as well as Vifam.

Oh, and there's another problem. It's this guy:

hey I'm good with that too, and even more sure Wicked is not scum.

You play this game with your emotions, and not with your head. It's how I play as well. It makes you obvtown as fuck. Unfortunately, it makes you wrong more often than not. Pointblank: you're on the wrong wagon.




EBWOP: el simo, a lot of the (my) problem with Wicked is, like, the 10 billion connections we see between him and certain other people in this game that could potentially be his scumpartners. In other words, I don't like his interaction with others. Especially with those on the wagon counter to his. I've seen your scumlist, el simo, and it's just so... different ... from anyone else's in this game (IIRC) that I don't think anyone's going to be convincing you of Wicked-scum without some flips changing your scumdar. Still, your vote is useless where it is and you should move it.

Basically, the speed at which the Avast counterwagon has grown next to Wicked has me worried as fuck. Especially given that I can see Wicked as scum with EVERY SINGLE PERSON who just helpedt he Avast wagon grow. Avast town read now for this reason.

My reads:

Scum: Yank, wicked, Rainbow, Vifam
Town: HH, ConfidAnon, bobsnox
Null leaning Town by PoE: everyone else

[el simo]

Yes that is what everyone is saying, let's lynch Wicked because he has relationships with scummy people A, B and C. It doesn't make sense to lynch him over that, we don't even know the set up yet and we already deducing that he is everyoens partners. Lynch scum first, find buddy later!

[HezLucky]

Lynch scum first, find buddy later!

This is exactly why I'm voting for Wicked. I already believe I've found the scum. It's just a matter of figuring out which one of my 4 reads I'm wrong about.

[bobsnox]

Hez - I trust my scumvibe reading more than picking apart posts. The more I pick apart posts, the more I realize that townies can be scummy as heck sometimes. I nail scum a lot more frequently when I get the gist of someone's play and vote based on that. Avast is way scummier than Wicked from that basis.

[el simo]

No that isn't what you are doing. You just said so yourself, the problem is his connections with other players you find scummy that makes him scummy. How about we find out if those guys are scum first before we start drawing these connections. It is irresponsible to say Person A is scum because he is buddying to Person B who is scummy as hell. Let's first find out if Person B is scummy before string up Person A, that is the only sensible thing to do.

I really do not understand this Wicked wagon.

Bob needs to die, I'll settle for avast though.

[el simo]

No that isn't what you are doing. You just said so yourself, the problem is his connections with other players you find scummy that makes him scummy. How about we find out if those guys are scum first before we start drawing these connections. It is irresponsible to say Person A is scum because he is buddying to Person B who is scummy as hell. Let's first find out if Person B is scum before string up Person A, that is the only sensible thing to do.

I really do not understand this Wicked wagon.

Bob needs to die, I'll settle for avast though.

[el simo]

Also my reads are different from everyone elses, they're different from yours. Which don't make sense, you repeatedly slam bobs posts but still rate him as townie. And HH has done nothing this entire game but dribble and you calling him town as well.

[avasthearties]

Alright, I'm going to have to UNVOTE: VOTE: Wicked just for the sake of self-preservation at this point. Bob is obvscum but Wicked still makes my top 3 and with the deadline coming up I might as well. Post coming tomorrow when I'm actually in the mood. Wicked vote will remain unless a Bob wagon starts up.

[ConfidAnon]

UNVOTE: wickedestjr
VOTE: avasthearties

This is going to sound terribad, but the reason I voted you, wicked, was because you were a lynch that I didn't have a Town read on. I didn't have a scum read on you, per se, but with deadline as close as it is, I wanted to make sure this day didn't get wasted in a No Lynch. But your play the past couple of pages really has seemed Town, and your avast case is a lynch I'm willing to go with, especially this close to deadline.

[el simo]

Avast should probably claim as I'm willing to hammer.