Mini 1195: The Beehive Mystery (GAME OVER)

[Whiskers]

Really? I thought You'd said the opposite earlier. I'll find it tomorrow whe I have the eyes for it.

Of course, if you can find it in stead, and clear yourself by explaining what you DID mean, that'll be cool too.

[Ivan the Pleasant]

You all are doing these "lynch, NK, lynch, NK," scenarios wrong. There are 8 people alive right now. 1 will die each day and night which will bring us to 6 tomorrow, then to 4 the next day which will be mylo, not lylo. Presumably then we would no lynch, and THEN be in lylo with two townies and a scum.

[Beck]

If you think there must be a scum player on the subgenius wagon than it is Beck. Put your money where your mouth is.

It comes down to this. I've given my reasoning why for my vote on Beck. My vote is where my mouth is, and despite my last post saying we've got a statistically higher chance of winning when lynching Tommy, I still think Beck has a higher likelihood of flipping scum. Which is why I've not changed my vote.

you are basing that off faulty logic though.

it is 100% possible for all town to be on the Sub wagon

it is 100% possible Ivan is lying and is a SK


also when i flip town ice, you are going to probably look the worse out of anyone cause your absolute refusal to consider any other options.

[Magic Trainer]

Hi, I skimmed the last few pages. Nothing productive got done. Ivan-Vig threw a money wrench in, and I still don't think Beck is scum. So Tommy scum gets to die instead. Call me back when we get something productive done.

Vote: Tommy

I still don't think Ice is scum either.

In addition, Magic Trainer was clearly online at the time prior to the hammer - I can testify to that. Had he no lynched, that would have been a cause for some worry.

Actually, no you can't. There was a 30 minute difference between my last post in this thread and my hammer, I could easily say I had to leave or there was an emergency. In addition to that, I have my account set up so others don't see my username down below when I'm browsing the forum, meaning even if I was here, you wouldn't know.

[Magic Trainer]

That is L-1 btw.

(Mod, please be more consistent with vote counts, at least 1 every 2 pages)

I'll do my catch up post within a few days. I have some stuff to today plus another game that seriously needs my attention.

[ICEninja]

Really? I thought You'd said the opposite earlier. I'll find it tomorrow whe I have the eyes for it.

I've stated that Tommy is acting scummier today, but I've also stated, repeatedly, that because of the circumstances, I feel like Beck has a higher likelihood of flipping scum.

it is 100% possible for all town to be on the Sub wagon

it is 100% possible Ivan is lying and is a SK

It's also 100% possible for me to find $100 lying on the floor next to an ATM machine next time I go out. That doesn't mean it's likely.

also when i flip town ice, you are going to probably look the worse out of anyone cause your absolute refusal to consider any other options.

I can probably find at least 3 instances declaring today that I'm open to a Tommy lynch. This is flat out mudslinging, fear mongering, borderline threat that scum tends to do to get out of lynches, and town does not. This is probably the scummiest thing you've said all day.

However if I can't get enough support for a Beck lynch, I'm fine hammering Tommy. He is a very close second lynch preference for today.

[Whiskers]

Tommy, Claim.

Beck maybe shouldn't have appealed directly to you-- THAT was a big hard scum slip. But he's right and I've been trying to push you in the same direction, nudging you to go from "We must lynch Beck because statistically that is what will please the Math Gods." to open up a little bit to "Well, I guess we COULD lynch Tommy today." And it's worked.

Finding those three would be cool-- the earlier the better, as that's what will help clear you in my opinion.

[Beck]

I'm not mud-slinging, your last few posts you seem open to a Tommy lynch but early on you and Scott were pretty much locked.

What I'm trying to figure out if the sense I have been making is finally sinking in or do you realize a Tommy lynch is more possible

I have been making the same sense all day. Nothing in that respect has changed

[ICEninja]

A Tommy lynch is possible. It always has been. It's just always been second best.

[Ivan the Pleasant]

you are basing that off faulty logic though.

it is 100% possible for all town to be on the Sub wagon

it is 100% possible Ivan is lying and is a SK

Try to read.

If

you think that there is scum on the subgenius wagon then it must be Ivan or Beck. Ivan is

not

on the scum team because he has demonstrated the ability to kill at night. No mafia family can kill twice, therefore Ivan must be a vig or an SK. The idea that there must be scum on the subgenius wagon is predicated by the mafia family knowing who its members are and making a conscious effort to save one of them. An SK, while scum, does not have that relationship with the mafia and would therefore be excluded from this scenario. If one is to assume that there must be at least one scum on the major town wagon yesterday and one scum on the major scum wagon, then the scum on the town wagon must be you.

[Beck]

But I'm arguing, and have been arguing, that there was 0 mafia on the sub wagon

Cause I'm not mafia or SK.

You are not mafia


Scott says that there is no possible way to have an all town wagon.

This is why I suggest that MT is not conf. Town cause he was on sub and hammered marble.

Scum hammering scum in that situation would make him look like a hero.

[ICEninja]

I never really considered MT

confirmed

town, so to speak. I do, however, feel like he has a lower likelihood of being scum than yourself and Tommy. Hammering Llama in that situation as scum would have been a gambit of sorts, but I must admit that MT's slot isn't exactly squeaky clean so I'd be open to the possibility, if not the likelihood, of considering MT as scum after we get either a Beck or Tommy flip.

[Tommy]

Still on a campsite in Sussex, but I can give you a claim and an answer to the ConfidAnon confusion.

I'm vanilla.

There had been a slight scum-tell in Confid's play early on, but by the time he was replaced my read was neutral.

[Whiskers]

This is gonna sound dumb.
ICE, why should't we vote for you?
I read all of your posts that say "Oh, after we lynch X today, we can lynch Y tomorrow", and none of them ever include lynching you. I know, I KNOW that's soooo stupid, why would you ever advocate for your own lynch. But tell me why we can't lynch you? From our perspective, you're NOT confirmed Town. From MY perspective, at least. Why can't we lynch you after Tommy/Beck?

[Scott Brosius]

I'm ready to hammer, would like to see a VC though to make sure he is at L-1.

[Beck]

lol I thought you would not vote anyone but me Scott

[Beck]

unvote

No rush to end the day without more discussion

[Scott Brosius]

Tommy was always second. But that is a complete lie that he was neutral on CA.

The question to Tommy was....what did you think of CA before he was replaced out. Given the tone and content of Tommy's posts, he was far from neutral on him.

[Beck]

My gut says Tommy is scum but my guts been wrong before. I'm not rushing this one

Scott, you need to do more really, you have been useless so was koolzy

[Magic Trainer]

Alright, this is been bugging me as of late.

Why does

everyone

here have a fetish for the word "confirmed" and why do you hate town reads, beck?

Can we please stop using the word confirmed? Especially when I'm starting to think no one here actually knows what that simple word means?

[Beck]

I know what confirmed is, yes you aren't confirmed but people think you are essentially confirmed cause your hammer

[Whiskers]

I am being treated as confirmed, for my mason claim.

Without being cleared by a confirmed cop, I'd say I'm the only confirmed townie we have.

[Whiskers]

*I'd say I'm the closest thing to a confirmed townie we have.

[Klazam]

Vc coming tonight very limited access

[Beck]

*I'd say I'm the closest thing to a confirmed townie we have.

Well nobody is CC'ing your mason claim. Yank said we have 3 masons so yeah. You are close enough I guess