Mafia 137 - Neruzian Era Mafia SERIAL KILLER WIN!

[hiplop]

Goddamn I wish we could lynch hiplop AND Toon Fighter today ffs.

shut up scum

[Hiraki]

lol

[zMuffinMan]

Hey. Neruz PMed me and said if we lynch Toon Fighter today, he'll modkill hiplop. No jokes. All the hiplop voters should jump on Toon Fighter. It's win/win.

[zMuffinMan]

I have a slight townread on Toon Fighter. I nailed him as scum in Matrix Mafia with no problem, and he's not playing the same way here.

explain

[hiplop]

Hey. Neruz PMed me and said if we lynch Toon Fighter today, he'll modkill hiplop. No jokes. All the hiplop voters should jump on Toon Fighter. It's win/win.

Please?

[mastin2]

But I have a slight townread on Toon Fighter. I nailed him as scum in Matrix Mafia with no problem, and he's not playing the same way here.

*insert GreyICE's CAPS LOCK RAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAGE here*

But, yeah. Toon's a town-read of mine as well.

Hey. Neruz PMed me and said if we lynch Toon Fighter today, he'll modkill hiplop.

Explain to me how this would not be made public information.

(Though I do agree with the part about unvoting hiplop. His replacement, on the other hand...)

[mastin2]

*cracks wrists*

I finally got my rhythm back. I remembered why all of my reads are what they are. I'm supposed to go to sleep in a couple of hours, since I've got a long hike tomorrow. But 1: I therefore won't have time tomorrow, and will A: be busy that night and B: have to go to sleep early that night as well, due to an event on Saturday, and

2: After all the procrastination I've done, after literally forgetting the reasons why for nearly every single read of mine, I for the first time in forever--by simply looking at my notes--have gotten my groove back. I sure as heck aren't going to stop myself (and risk losing it) for a thing so trivial as sleep.

No, if it has to be an all-nighter, so be it. I'm getting my act together.

[mastin2]

Remember this?

TOWN:
MuffinMan
Torquez/Hez
Bowser
Maxous

hiplop (STRONGEST--almost enough to move up)
Toon (SECOND WEAKEST)
Phoebus/lewarcher (WEAKEST)

LIKELY TOWN:
Vezok
Hiraki

Pine

DA REST:

malpascp
Prana/Mint
SRG
Warrior
Uprising/chk (ENOUGH TO ALMOST MOVE DOWN)

SCUM:

Tomie?
Edmund

GreyICE

(?)
Empking
Pappums

It needs no updating. Merely re-ordering of the scum-reads. Pappums at the top, Edmund/Empking tied for second (lean towards Empking), Tomie below that, and GreyICE at the bottom.

I had to only look at the list to know instantly why. All I need to do is convert this instant rush of mental notes into physical proof.

(Side-note: among the mental proof IS meta--two Toon-town games which Toon's play is a dead-ringer for me, a town Pappums game which doesn't match Pappum's play here, and a town Empking game which doesn't match his play here. It's something I do think about in my head, but I will not be using it [other than its mention here] in my physical proof, out of respect for GreyICE*.)

(*When I release my "Guide to Scumhunting Well", you'll see my current view on meta. Haven't found what seems like the right time to post that Guide, though. :/)

[HezLucky]

I have a slight townread on Toon Fighter. I nailed him as scum in Matrix Mafia with no problem, and he's not playing the same way here.

explain

I would rather not start explaining anything before completing my reread of the game [lol that might take a while] because that will lead to confirmation bias.

But lets just say toon fighter was really obvious scum to me in Matrix Mafia, and my scumdar hasn't exactly changed. (remember that one, muffin? the one that is wrong about everything? well, i can actually read toon fighter apparently ... though if his wagon is due to something that hasn't happened in the first part of the thread do let me know)

[HezLucky]

(Side-note: among the mental proof IS meta--two Toon-town games which Toon's play is a dead-ringer for me, a town Pappums game which doesn't match Pappum's play here, and a town Empking game which doesn't match his play here. It's something I do think about in my head, but I will not be using it [other than its mention here] in my physical proof, out of respect for GreyICE*.)

Empking's play can be sporadic from game to game. Need a larger sample size than one.

Though from those 4 I would be happy with a pappums rat lynch the most.

Vote: pappums rat

I have no intention of holding up the game. Back to my initial read I go.

[HezLucky]

Back to my initial read I go.

read here doesn't mean "guess as to who i think is mafia", read means "i am literally reading pages 1 to 30"

[mastin2]

Step one: confirmation posts.

Yes. I can get generally reliable reads from confirmation posts. Don't ask me *why* I can. I just do, and it works.

(No, this is not BS. Yes, this is how I got my mystical initial reads which people thought were pulled out of thin air. Yes, I realize how insane that sounds, and yes, I realize how people probably will not accept it as valid evidence. But these were the foundation of my reads, no joke, no BS.)

Town.

I'm slightly suspicious of there being one scum in {SRG, Pine, warrior}, hence why warrior was originally on my scumlist and currently is near the bottom of my "DA REST" list.

Prana's gave me a very weak town-read.

Uprising's identical confirmation initially gave me a town-read. But on a re-read, I realized how it was bandwagoning Prana's confirmation. But then I thought that it was the type of interaction which could only come from town. And I changed my mind. Back and forth multiple times. I settled eventually on weak town.

Very

weak town. As in, "probably would be on my scumlist if one of my scumreads was proven to be town", weak. (You can see this strongest in my first post of the day.

8. Uprising <--Flip-flops, but overall leans town. (So, very minorly.)

To this day, that has not improved.)

I've already explained why I see Torquez's as town. He shows enthusiasm, as well as displaying one of my personal town-tells by greeting the names he's familiar with.

Between Muffin, Phoebus, and Empking, there should be another scum, too. Phoebus's used a period and lacked a slash--enough to make me doubt him. Muffin's obvious-town for other reasons. Process of Elimination, Empking's confirmation post makes him scum.

Toon's post is overall null--on the one hand, he's showing enthusiasm. On the other hand, it looks like a copy of Torqez's.

Mal became a town-read of mine for his confirmation post. It could be a copy of Torqez's via the ":D" showing enthusiasm, but it didn't read that way. Also, the word choice of "confirming" rather than just "confirm" makes Mal stand out from the crowd a bit.

And that's the confirmation stage.


I realize that you still think that this is a load of BS, but if you reeeeeeeeeeeally insist, I can try to explain why I feel the way I do about these confirmation posts. And how I'm right about them all. There's a whole hidden depth, a layer in confirmation posts which I feel is actually quite a cool way to scumhunt once you master the finer points of it. (It's not a perfect art, but it does work more often than not.)

[mastin2]

...But not until after I finish, okay? Next up is the short RVS. (Short, because I come in on page two. And once Mastin posts, the RVS is effectively over. Has been that way since early '09. )

[Neruz]

sorgster

replaces

Tomie Uzumaki

.

[sorgster]

Hi everone. I'm going to have to read through 32 pages of text.

[lewarcher82]

we are very delayed even with suspended deadline. At this point, we need a major wagon, someone at L-2/1 claiming and a resolution to be taken following the claim.

the leading wagons are: hiplop, toon, bowser, pappum's.

I am not voting bowser: he is town. At this point, I am willing to find an agreement with the people voting toon or pappum's. Day does not need to end immediately, contrary to some scummy statement that was made. but we do need momentum.

I suggest everyone assigns a score from 1 to 4 to each of the 4 leading wagons, without repetition, 4 being the scummiest. We will see who is on top at the end of the process.

I start:

hiplop: 4
toon: 3
pappum's: 2
bowser: 1

[mastin2]

Toon's opener starts the standard Mastin wagon. (There's always a Mastin wagon in games.
Always*. )

*Sometimes even when Mastin himself isn't and never does join said game.

His reasoning is some of the best out of all. Toon has seen me in two games, at that point. One was a marathon game. Where I dayvigged my scumbuddy the second the game began on Day One, and cruised to my first-ever 3P lylo. He (town) won, but it was not an easy victory for him to earn. He had to fight me, hard, to get it.

So, he sees that as scum, I'm hard to kill and therefore a threat.

The other game was Tricycle Mafia, where I exceeded my "one-gambit-per-game" limit. The end result was me, lynched, and him having outed himself pointlessly because he missed my hints.

In other words, I helped screw over the town and contributed to the scum victory that game.

So, he sees me as a liability to the town and therefore a threat.


Both are consistent with his vote and reason. This is what instantly propelled Toon to his current spot.


Prana's RVote has some history behind it--SRG and he know each other. Prana vouched for SRG before the game to allow SRG to play. They had a bit of a conversation. Prana's RVote was following through on that, in a manner I felt was quite pro-town.

This gave me my scumread on Tomie. I've never played with Tomie before. If I have, I certainly am not aware of it. So, Tomie voted me, despite having not known me. It started the mastin bandwagon. It was one of the least justified votes.

The Prana-SRG interaction continues, and again, this particular kind of conversation, the overall casual, playful feeling to their interactions feels like it is pure town.

THIS, however, was pure scum. "just my way of saying hello". The way to say "hello" is to say it in-thread, like Torqez did. It also gives off a distinctive feeling of needing to over-explain the vote, like Edmund needs to justify his random vote. More than that, it's bandwagoning without acknowledging the wagon on Muffin.

It simultaneously created a scumread on Edmund and a town-read on Muffin. (Yes, this is where I got my Muffing town-read from.) Edmund displays a clear overcautiousness in his tone, a clear feeling of scum paranoia. It stands in stark contrast to the casual tones of SRG/Prana.

Hiraki was null.

Maxous, on the other hand, has a town-lean. His vote on me seemed town enough. Like Toon, it could be referring to two games. One, marathon, where I was a cop, and nailed both him and his buddy as scum. (Revenge.) Two, the same game as Toon, Tricycle, where I fakeclaimed daycop on day one.

Either one could explain the emoticon at the end. And both display an overall town mind-set.

This gives off an identical "overall null but leaning town" feel. It's a safe vote, on a safe person, for a safe reason--but it is the casual attitude I'd expect.

And then I post. So, that's the end of the RVS, as far as I'm concerned.

[mastin2]

hiplop: 4
toon: 3
pappum's: 2
bowser: 1

No need for numbers overcomplicating things. Pappums, Toon, Hiplop, Bowser,

most to least scum.


Do note, "most to least scum" still means "only one scum", meaning the others are town. Pappums should be the lynch today. But I'm getting to that. I've gotten to where the real game begins.

[lewarcher82]

he sees me as a liability to the town and therefore a threat

I never played with you but I see you as a liability as well.

numbers work to create a matrix and see what happens... I have never done this before, but it is also the first time I find myself in the situation of a suspended deadline with 4 medium size wagons. I think it may help.

score-so-far

pappums = 6
toon = 6
hiplop = 6
bowser = 2

keep going

[zMuffinMan]

toon 4
pappums 1
hiplop 0
bowser 0

[lewarcher82]

muffin, it's not about saying someone is scum or not, it's about giving score to the wagon. I would assing 0 to bowser and almost 0 to pappum's, but I did not. Please use 4 to 1 to keep the system working.

[zMuffinMan]

*snip*
life story
*snip*

So, he sees me as a liability to the town and therefore a threat.

I have a much simpler explanation. It was a RVS vote; it's a null tell on alignment.

Please use 4 to 1 to keep the system working.

I'm not voting someone I think is town.

[lewarcher82]

me neither. Assigning scores != voting.

The difference between making a shared matrix of scummy-point and voting is so evident that you cannot possibly have missed it. If you don't like my idea, then ok, forget about it. Hiplop is scum, my vote is on hiplop. Plane's waiting for me, see you tomorrow.

[vezokpiraka]

hiplop 4
bowser 4
TF 4
Pappums 0

[mastin2]

There's a flaw in your matrix.

Town will always score higher than scum.

Always.