New York 134: Planet of Hats (Scum Win!)

[Amrun]

Yeah, I'm pretty obviously not scum, Palisade. I spent 10 minutes ISOing one of the flipped mafia before I replaced into this slot because I didn't want a scum slot and that is how long it took me to figure out Parabollocks was town.

Is your reasoning that I would have forgotten to submit a scum kill when I replaced in? Fat chance.


Here's my plan of attack. I'm going to try something new. Before reading the thread in its entirety, I'm going to do these things:

-ISO each scum that has flipped (and its predecessor, if applicable) and analyze the posts to determine likelihood of buddies
-ISO each flipped town to glean what I can
-ISO remaining players by likelihood of being scum as per above analysis
-Finally, read the thread in context to help put the pieces together

I replaced into two games at once (why did I do this damnit) so I needed to break it down into doable sections so I can still be of use here.

Also, I have always wanted to try this and this game has enough flipped scum that I think it could be really effective.

[Amrun]

This is how this is going to go. I'll quote pertinent posts and highlight confirmed players in green/red respectively, then analyze how that player treats town and scum respectively.

I'm not going to do a giant annoying catch-up wall like

PBuG

did.

Reck and

thor

are obv-town
Jilynne is town
I can't read

sleepykrew

for shit, so I'm going to trust reck's read (which he seems rather confident about).

Taro

is town
Chkballin' is likely town
Peregrine,

KoC

,

Parabollocks

, and

JGDA

need to die
I believe Palisade's vig claim
Cele is probably town
I'll talk about hydras and

sancho

and whoever else I forgot to address in the next post.

I'm going to elaborate on the scum reads in my next post. If you guys want me to elaborate on a specific town read, ask, because I'm too lazy to do it without asking.

From this one post, I can surmise that Zebronic doesn't treat all of his buddies the same but likely tries to avoid saying anything specific about them.

Reck gets town points.
Palisade, chkballin, Celebloki get minor scumpoints

[Amrun]

I think that

NS

could possibly be Scum, but the big problem is wheter we can afford to lose a Town Cop. I also think that if we mis-lynch today, then it's possible that LYLO will come sooner then we all suspect. If

NS

is realy Cop, then we started the game with 2 Cops. Also, because there was no deaths last night, it is possible that the town has several other PR's. If this was the case, to counter-balance, it is possible that there would be a large Mafia (maybe as much as 6), causing an early LYLO.

I think it is possible Jilly COULD be lieing when she claimed PGO, and is useing it as a coverup so that no one will investigate. I saw a game 1 time when a Goon claimed that role, and because everyone was too scared to investigate, the Mafia won.

Thor

, please clarify when you say "Give your reads".

Mostly of note in this post is the part about jily. He is treating her exactly like he treated NS, ostensibly, but it bothers me...

[Amrun]

And on that note, I'll stop being an asshole.

This game just lost half the fun.

So, I'm up for a

DK

, jily, or

swag

lynch.

This combined with his early jily vote gives jily town points - but I'm a little torn on how valid this is because jily would be a perfect early bus and sk obviously had experience with her.


SK later fencesits on chkballin' wagon (scumpoints) and fully supports

PBuG

wagon.

KoC

=active lurker

PBuG

=scummymcscummerson

Conclusion: SK does not seem to bus. Townpoints for jily seem to be valid. Palisade also gets some (lesser) townpoints from SK's iso.

[Amrun]

Bah... it feels like we're all getting caught up in

DK

again instead of discussing scum.

Swag136

I'm not entirely sure about, but it does seem like an awfully stupid move regardless.
jilynne, however, still has these same contradictions surrounding her that she since she tried to explain away her vote on

DK

, and I

really

don't like them. IMO, thinking that L-7 is pressure doesn't really seem to make sense to me, and her constant flipflopping of attitudes towards

DK

in particular just reeks of scum. My vote stays.

And speaking of votes...
[edited out VC]

JDGA also doesn't seem fond of bussing.

Major townpoints for jily.

JDGA spends most of his time attacking chkballin, so townpoints there as well.

Minor townpoints for Palisade, too.

Very minor townpoints for Reck.

[Amrun]

Every flipped scum slot gives jily a lot of town cred, so with even with the sketch PGO claim, I think VinegarEater is town.

Reck and chkballin likely town. Palisade also probable town.

More analysis required for possible scumbuddies.

[glowball]

Wait you guys, I have a question how many scum are normal for a large game? I've been trying to find the rules for balance since someone said something about games being balanced to me once- I need a little more elaboration if it's not a problem. I just think it might help me sort things out if I know how many more we have to find, I mean 3 are dead I would have thought that was enough but obviously not...

~

BALLIN

[chkballin]

Sorry

Wait you guys, I have a question how many scum are normal for a large game? I've been trying to find the rules for balance since someone said something about games being balanced to me once- I need a little more elaboration if it's not a problem. I just think it might help me sort things out if I know how many more we have to find, I mean 3 are dead I would have thought that was enough but obviously not...

~

BALLIN

[Amrun]

Balance is not a simple equation. Is there an sk in this set-up, for example? I don't even know yet.

4 scum minimum for this size, I'd say.

[VinegarEater]

@mod - If a hypothetical roleblocker blocks one member of a hypothetical scumteam that has two or more members, can the hypothetical scumteam still make a kill?

Everyone -
First of all, Palisade is still an SK, so VOTE: Palisade. Others should do the same.

Here are my conspiracy theories, formulated overnight:

Suppose we have a jailkeeper, who either really liked Palisade and wanted him to be protected, or wanted him not to make any kills and repeatedly roleblocked him. He saw that we were planning to lynch Palisade today and that we wouldn't mind if he got NK'ed, so he left him alone. He locked up NS instead, a claimed cop who several people believe. Scum decided it might be fun to shoot NS because he's going to be lynched anyway in a few days, and it's better for them if he flips sooner with fewer investigations under his belt. It didn't work.

The other possibility, for heathens who don't believe in the jailkeeper, is that an RB (probably scum*) switched from blocking Palisade to blocking NS. Also, the scum were sleeping, and the roleblocker was too polite to wake them up, so they didn't kill anyone.

I like the first one, personally. I'd also like to hear Chkballin's reaction to my theories.

*Would a town RB switch from an SK/vigilante with poor judgement, to an nonroleblockable scumbag (if my mod question turns out to be true) or the cop?

Amrun -

Yeah, I'm pretty obviously not scum, Palisade. I spent 10 minutes ISOing one of the flipped mafia before I replaced into this slot because I didn't want a scum slot and that is how long it took me to figure out Parabollocks was town.

Since when was "if you'll just think for a moment, you'll take my side on the issue" ever a good tactic against people who have both thought for a moment, and taken an entirely different side on the issue?

I want to know how you decided Parabollocks was obvtown solely by spending ten minutes ISOing

someone other than Parabollocks

.

Is your reasoning that I would have forgotten to submit a scum kill when I replaced in? Fat chance.

It's equally plausible to me that you would have omitted your kill specifically to say that. That's WIFOM, mind you, but you started it by asking a "would I really do that?" question. Abandon this chain of reasoning altogether - it will take you nowhere.

I don't like your ISOful scumhunting style but I'm going to wait until you've finished before I elaborate, in case I change my mind. It isn't something I've seen before.

[Nobody Special]

I think that

NS

could possibly be Scum, but the big problem is wheter we can afford to lose a Town Cop. I also think that if we mis-lynch today, then it's possible that LYLO will come sooner then we all suspect. If

NS

is realy Cop, then we started the game with 2 Cops. Also, because there was no deaths last night, it is possible that the town has several other PR's. If this was the case, to counter-balance, it is possible that there would be a large Mafia (maybe as much as 6), causing an early LYLO.

I think it is possible Jilly COULD be lieing when she claimed PGO, and is useing it as a coverup so that no one will investigate. I saw a game 1 time when a Goon claimed that role, and because everyone was too scared to investigate, the Mafia won.

Thor

, please clarify when you say "Give your reads".

Mostly of note in this post is the part about jily. He is treating her exactly like he treated NS, ostensibly, but it bothers me...

I would like to know why you've colored me green here.



Unrelated: Since the potential Godfather discussion came up

after

my initial Innocent result on Celebloki, I never once considered Celebloki in the potential pool of Godfathers. However, he has just as much chance of being GF as does Reck and Palisade. (This is mainly for my notes; but also for anyone else who thought this way.)

[Amrun]

I don't know why I colored you green, NS. Weird mistake.

From what I've read so far, I think I do believe your claim, though.

Vinegar:

It's possible there's a plausible case on Parabollocks, but I don't have any clue since I haven't read even one of his posts.

I ISOed Zebronic and Auckmid before replacing in since they were the scum in the game longest. I saw Zebronic list parbollocks and jdga in the "needs to die" category after concluding he treated his buddies differently and decidit was highly unlikely more than one scum was in the "needs" category.

To be honest, I then gathered that jily claimed pgo, which seemed like a classic jilyscum move, so I isoed you (vinegar), saw your extensive attacks on para, and concluded para wasn't scum.

Then when I did a more extensive analysis of the flipped scum, I concluded I was wrong and you are actually town (or at the very least, not groupscum). Pgo claim does increase chances of sk, though.

[VinegarEater]

Anrun -
Unless Palisade is claiming someone else's kills, he's either the vig or the SK. So, if I'm scum, I'm groupscum.

Your ISO isn't that bad as far as reasoning goes. Withholding unfavorable remarks about your scumhunting style for now.

[bvoigt]

Amrun looks town so far.

I think things would make a lot more sense if our mysterious jailkeeper/roleblocker claimed. What do you guys think?

[VinegarEater]

I won't support that until after Palisade is dead, which should be today. If the jailkeeper/RB claims, he'll get shot the next night, and I don't want to have to deal with two kills per night.

Also, if anyone claims jailkeeper/RB at this point, I plan on lynching them tomorrow for being a scum RB.

[Nobody Special]

I don't know why I colored you green, NS. Weird mistake.

Although not sure what I really expected (aside from "oops scumslip lol"), I guess I was hoping for more than

that.

To be honest, I then gathered that jily claimed pgo, which seemed like a classic jilyscum move, so I isoed you (vinegar), saw your extensive attacks on para, and concluded para wasn't scum.

Craplogic 101 (unless you can explain in better detail, which I doubt).



I'm down for a Palisade lynch today.

Vote: Palisade

[Amrun]

NS, why so confrontational?

To the best of my memory, I was going to say something like I believed your claim (at this point of reading) and wanted to use that to look at how he treated jily's claim, but I was pretty tired. Your name was green, it shouldn't have been, end of story.

As for my "craplogic," it was something I did in literally 3-5 minutes to determine if I wannted to take the slot. It was never meant to impress.

You're being pretty vague. How about drawing some conclusions?

Vinegar:

As stated, this "iso" thing is bnoth an experiment and a method to help me be useful before I fully catch up.

I decided I wanted to try it after I replaced into an L-1 obvscum ( and yet town) slot simply to claim and be hammered. I expected that to happen and so didn't want to commit to reading the game. I ISOed thw singular flipped scum to determine which of the counterwagons to join. In doing so, I decided one player (one of my slot's counterwagons) was town and another was scum.

So in about 10 minutes, I figured out enough to declare one player town, another player scum, and pick the counterwagon that was on a player in the null category rather than town. My vote was on scum; my scum read was scum; my town read was town. Scum won the game.

A replacement's biggest value is the new set of eyes and the fresh perspective. I decided to expand the above concept and utilize that to its fulest.

Maybe it will work out, maybe it won't.

Either way, can the rudeness. It's uncalled for.

[Amrun]

Also there seems to be some type of evidence that shows Palisade is sk.

Wagonho.

VOTE: Palisade

[xRECKONERx]

phonepost

vote palisade

about time.
NS continues to troll the game
the supposed roleblocker making these actions makes NO SENSESENSE

[VinegarEater]

Reckoner -
Do my rationales explain the roleblocker/jailkeeper action if you temporarily assume NS is telling the truth?

[xRECKONERx]

There isn't a jailer though otherwise we would have a claim

[Amrun]

I thought ns claimed cop, not blocker?

[Nobody Special]

I did. I have no idea what Vinegar is on about.

Amrun -- don't take my anger personally. You can't help it if you inherited a lousy scumrole.

[xRECKONERx]

he did

[VinegarEater]

Ignore #1594 for being stupid. My rationale doesn't really require NS to have any particular role - for some reason, I was thinking NS had to be cop for us to have a scum roleblocker.