Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

[Fuldu]

Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here. What is the world coming to?

And aside from the mildly scummish tone of

FOS: neongrey and RandomActs for not paying attention, haha.

and the fact that HezLucky is barely in the top third of the players in this game in terms of experience and skill, there's the fact that if we were able to find who the mafia recruited simply by deciding which player would most advantageous for them, it would mean that the mafia probably hadn't done a very good job of choosing who to recruit.

vote: DrippingGoofball

[Fuldu]

Oh dear, I'm agreeing with Baby Jesus in one game and with Fritzler here.

Huggle Fuldu

And apparently that gets me in good with Pooky by some sort of proxy-huggle. It's like the Axis of Cuddly Evil.

[Fuldu]

I, at this point wouldn't hesitate to vote you. However, the relative speed of the bandwagon is a cause for concern. Your actions do indeed deserve a vote, so I'm going to give it to you, but town, be aware, I may very well unvote if this bandwagon grows too fast. I learned from my last error in the 5 year invitational.

Heh. But the difference you're forgetting is that this time I agree with you.

[Fuldu]

well out of pure curiosity, has anyone played or know of a game with no power roles like this one? i'd like to read it, or hear about experience.

I was scum and won the second of the two minis this is based on, More Mountainous Mafia. On the other hand, between the two of us, LML and I ruined Day Two of the Five Year Invitational for town, with consequences through the rest of the game. The main difference between the two was that the Five Year, unlike this setup, wasn't an open setup. Things would have gone much differently in that game if we'd

known

that there were only townies.

Oh, and as long as you're fishing for experienced players,

FOS: broomhead

.

[Fuldu]

Hez is saying that tidus's post seems suspicious, but that it doesn't really mean anything until we know the alignment of one of those three people. I'd argue that on Day One of a game without power roles, that's a reason to try to start a bandwagon on one of those three people, probably the center, tidus. But I think it looks more like just a mediocre and somewhat newbish post rather than actual ties between the three of them, so I'm disinclined to help him out in that direction.

[Fuldu]

Scum

would

rather want to avoid it, but it's been part of the larger discussion for about two years now and they still seem not to. Especially relatively new players, like tidus, who may not have heard of the various scum tells.

[Fuldu]

So your voting for me for the same reason as I'm voting for MasterOfSin?

Odd.

And, in fact, that's not what he's doing. He's voting for you because of the reason you've given for voting MOS.

[Fuldu]

Errr, without obviating any of my prior suspicions or delivering that promised analysis just yet,

Vote: Mastermind of Sin

. Without a power role, someone who doesn't talk is less than useless, they're actually hindering the game. So either you're scum, or you're dead weight.

And yes, I've gotten on you about this before (ever since Guitarists, I think), but it applies even moreso in this game because you can't possibly have the "I was protecting my copness" defense. Post or Perish.

actually, both my posts contributed to the game, since I was able to get discussion going instead of people just random voting and speculating on who was recruited, which, imo, is a pointless discussion.

That's excellent. I can assume we'll be seeing you start every game from now on by claiming to be scum, since that's certain to spark conversation.

[Fuldu]

unvote: Dripping Goofball; vote: tidus_of_zamarkand

[Fuldu]

Norinel, what is that

3

in all the votecounts? Normally I'd assume it had something to do with one of the roles, but in this game, obviously not.

[Fuldu]

Errr, Sparrow's not the

recruit

... nothing says he can't be one of the original Asian Mafia, after all.

The last game I said this in, I was wrong, but I stand by the argument that players who use the official name of the mafia on Day One instead of referring to them generically are more likely to be scum.

That should be a lynch. Assuming this isn't an April Fool's joke...Unvote: Mastermind of Sin, Vote: tidus of quittingland.

Voting after the hammer has already dropped, expressing doubts about the veracity of the scum claim, and especially venting about quitting all point to scum, to me.

vote: Mr. Flay

[Fuldu]

Errr, Sparrow's not the

recruit

... nothing says he can't be one of the original Asian Mafia, after all.

The last game I said this in, I was wrong, but I stand by the argument that players who use the official name of the mafia on Day One instead of referring to them generically are more likely to be scum.

As Fritzler said, "Reading is scummy". It says in the very first post of the thread what the role PMs say...

It has nothing to do with whether you were aware of that information. I had read it and was aware of it, so it's not like your use of the phrase "Asian Mafia" came as an enormous surprise to me.

It's a question of the psychology of who would be more likely to actually use the phrase in a post. People who are members of the group have internalized that description, and so are more likely to use it externally. People who aren't members of the group are (if, as you've pointed out, they've read at all carefully) aware of the name of the group, but are more likely to think of that group generically as "scum" than specifically as "the Asian Mafia." It doesn't matter to them one way or the other what the group is called - the important fact is just that they're the bad guy who must be done away with.

That should be a lynch. Assuming this isn't an April Fool's joke...Unvote: Mastermind of Sin, Vote: tidus of quittingland.

Voting after the hammer has already dropped, expressing doubts about the veracity of the scum claim, and especially venting about quitting all point to scum, to me.

As you might recall, JEEP briefly screwed up the threads on April Fool's Day. I did a manual count and it looked like tidus had 11/12 needed when I voted. Later after the count was fixed I think I ended up being 13th, and Norinel opted not to change my vote in the final tally. I can't prove that, of course, since I didn't take a screen capture, but that's what happened on my end. It really did seem bizarrely easy to catch a scum on D1 of a Mountainous game, is all...

I don't recall the threads ever being screwed up on April Fool's Day, just the avatars and user-related information (not including usernames). But that's less of a vital point here and you're right in saying that it's an unprovable issue. In general, it gives the impression that you're trying to appear in agreement with the lynch without having actually wanted it.

And in this particular situation, I extend that suspicion back through everyone who voted for him after he admitted to being scum. Once someone's taken that step, it's hard to really clear anyone based on their vote simply because they helped lynch scum. It's just that your after-the-fact vote looks a little forced in a "Damnit, that lynch went suddenly and I wasn't on it. I'd better make it look like I wanted to be" sort of way.

But for my main point, here again consider the mentality of a person who complains (even just a bit passive-aggressively) about tidus' giving up and admitting to being scum. I'm not saying that there's no reason a pro-town player might be upset about that. It makes the game less fun when other players give up.

For a pro-town player in this situation, that's going to be somewhat mediated by the fact that it's still early in the game, meaning that there's still a ways to go for the win. And, since we've lynched one scum, we have a bit more of a buffer to work with and additional information to build off of.

On the other hand, for scum, the annoyance of tidus being a poor sport is compounded by the fact that it's made scum's game that much more difficult. And so, they have greater reason to feel slighted by his actions, and therefore more of an emotional disposition toward complaining about it.

So, when someone complains about tidus quitting, I'm more inclined to think of them as likely to be scum. And in this case, that meant you. In then reading back over your posts, I came across the Asian Mafia comment, which I had missed yesterday, so I chose to include that. By my main argument is on the psychology of being annoyed enough at tidus to type "tidus_of_quittingland."

[Fuldu]

Well, Tidus was clearly a newbie, but how does the way he broke under pressure tell us anything about the characteristics of the rest of the scum group?

I don't think it tells us much of anything. They might all be newbies. The others might be experienced, but not the sorts that give a bunch of advice on how to play scum effectively. Or tidus might just not have been the sort to ask for that advice, or to have used it effectively. My first time playing scum, I was teamed with Leonidas (later replaced by Dragon Phoenix) and bloojay (replaced by Captain Blicero). I asked all of them for advice, most of which was quite good, but still ended up making the fairly elementary error of trying so hard to keep the town from lynching me that I made an excellent night target for the other scum team.

[Fuldu]

You already alluded to the fact that a bunch of people are now both simultaneously "off the hook" for voting their possible scum partner, and more suspicious for voting after he claimed scum (including me). How does that part make our job easier?

I'll just correct this so that there's no confusion later. I was suggesting that in most games, players who are on a bandwagon that lynches scum are more likely to not be members of that same group and in a game like this, where everyone knows there's only one scum group, that means they're more likely to be pro-town. My point was that for whatever degree of innocence you want to assign to that normally, in this instance you have to draw that line at tidus' scum claim instead of wherever you normally draw it.

So there's no simultaneity in what I was describing. People who voted tidus before he claimed get whatever amount of lenience you would normally give to a player on a bandwagon that lynches scum (what you've called "off the hook," though I think that phrase is a bit too strong and the quotes you used made me think that I'd said it). People who voted after the claim, including both you and me, get none.

[Fuldu]

I just assume that everyone is joking, because almost everything i say is a joke (except that) (and that).

Really?
That's very interesting considering it has been said before in this thread that joke posts generally come from scum.

I think that point that's being missed in the discussion of joking being a scum trait versus a town trait is that it isn't just a matter of joking. It's a matter of whether there are entire posts that are nothing but jokes, and (usually) a question of whether there are more than just one or two of them. Joking in the context of an otherwise useful post isn't indicative of anything. And a single post that's just jokes and non-contributive isn't indicative of much. But when a player begins to present a pattern of that behavior, it becomes much more likely that they're trying to give the appearance of participation without actually doing anything. Jokes aren't the only sort of post that I look for of this sort, but they're generally the easiest to spot.

[Fuldu]

machirity coming from fritz??? who would live to see that day? I really find this whole thing coming from fritz a little unlike him, and since I dont know how he acts when he is scum, I will guess its this.

Vote: Fritz

Yes, please. Let's punish Fritzler for trying to become a more reasonable person.

[Fuldu]

unvote: Mr. Flay; vote: LoudmouthLee

I believe that makes seven, and I don't like lynching without giving the lynchee a chance to respond, so let's try to slow this one down a bit, please.

[Fuldu]

usual all out fritz with trying to catch scum and be crazy in every post

so you're saying that because fritz is normally crazy and all out when he's mafia

MoS, I interpreted what creampuffeater wrote, as an example of Fritzler being town in other games.

i'm not sure how you can say DGB is being normal (but wierd by mafia standards)

Yes I agree that DGB is wierd for mafia standards.

I enjoy reading her weirdness in varous games. I seconded Thok's nomination of her for The Coffee on the Monitor award.

You seem to be very buddy buddy with DGB. I implore you to look AWAY from your friendliness and lynch her, Lloyd. She masically SLIPPED. I quoted it and pounced on it RIGHT AWAY. I have referenced said quote a HUNDRED TIMES.

I'm even willing to bet my mafia life on it.

I've read this proposed slip probably five or six times each time you bring it up. I still don't understand it or what you're trying to say about it. I don't understand what DG was trying to get at with her odd question, but the fact that it's clearly a counterfactual (since it basically asks "If you were scum, would you recruit yourself, Fritzler?", which is obviously impossible) says to me that it doesn't say anything at all about her knowledge of Fritzler's alignment. All I can think is that you're reading the "if you were scum" part of the question as known to be an assumption, but since the question is hypothetical whether Fritzler is scum or not, I don't think that's a valid conclusion.

[Fuldu]

By betting my "mafia" life I mean, I'm sure of it... and I'd be willing to sacrafice myself tomorrow if i'm wrong.

I had a whole post about my concerns that LML hadn't further explained the "slip" that I've asked him to elaborate on, since it still makes no sense to me. But the Internet connection dropped while I was typing it and I had to go. Now, two days later, I see that the discussion has moved on in some regards, but that we're still focused on LML, Pooky, and (more than before) DGB.

Personally, I still find the above quote from LML to be worthy of concern. Partly it's concern that if he's being honest about being pro-town, in an all-vanilla game, he should never be willing to make that tradeoff. But mostly it's concern that this is precisely the same sort of tone that he and I took with one another during our ill-fated run at one another in the 5th Anniversary Invitational. We were both dead-certain that the other was scum, for what, in retrospect, were about comparably valid reasons, and we were both wrong. I'd have thought LML would have learned from that experience, but apparently not.

Unless what he learned was that by being a prominent and vocal player and espousing complete certainty, he can get another player lynched on the basis of not very much at all. And that's only something you'd want to take advantage of if you were scum.

[Fuldu]

I agree with Pooky on RandomActs. Plus, the "I'm impressed" portion of his most recent post reads like scum to me.

vote: RandomActs

[Fuldu]

I never said you were wrong. I merely said I was unconvinced, which I might add, were all but 7 of us at the time of the deadline. Now, in fairness, are you going to grill the other nine of us too, the ones who didn't vote with you??

He should, to the extent that he feels we were pushing for LML over DG on bad grounds. I'm prepared to defend my decision, should it come to that. But Pooky's also saying that the particulars of how you did so were more suspect than anyone else he's looked at, which means that he's chosen you over the rest of us who weren't on the DG lynch to look at.

I think the patting-DG-lynchers-on-the-back attitude you started the day with fits into that. You feel that if I think it's scummy to congratulate other people on being right when you were wrong, then that's my problem. I feel that "Gee, shucks, I guess I was wrong. What can I say?" is a common scum obsequiousness after a scum lynch, which, to my way of thinking, makes it your problem.

[Fuldu]

Lets face it, if I WAS scum, would I make it that easy,

tidus did, so that's not the most useful argument. My current suspicions are on Twomz, but I have to do a full reread when I have a bit more time to recheck that.

[Fuldu]

Out of curiosity, what in particular have I done?

You've been scummy for most of the game, then tipped the scales by tying yourself to known scum. You're definitely the best lynch for the day. Good thing I'm here to show everyone, since it looks like they obviously missed it.

Thus far you haven't shown anyone anything, just asserted that the case exists without making it. And, in fact, I read back over everything that neongrey has posted and can't find anything like what you're saying, so you're going to have to expand on it a little before I'm going to show any more interest in it than that.

Of course, I said my current suspicions were on Twomz and in rereading I see that he has a substantially better voting record in this game than I do and it's just his more recent posts that seem scummy. So I'll rescind my overall suspicion of him with the narrower suggestion that going forward he might want to dial back the arrogance of a few of his more recent posts.

[Fuldu]

Rereading Flay's posts, I find myself in agreement with Pooky and Fritzler. On several occasions, Flay indicated a willingness to lynch DG, but a preference for somebody else (usually Fritzler). I had some arguments against him Day Two that I feel are still valid, if hardly damning. And his primary argument against being the recruit (which he's used a couple of times now) is basically, "No, no, they'd almost certainly want to have recruited someone better than me." To my mind, though, we have two dead scum who were relatively new players, at which point a guy with "Professor Mafia" attached to his name is going to look awfully appealing.

vote: Mr. Flay

[Fuldu]

Well, we don't really have much more information then yesterday, other then Pooky being town, which I was already pretty sure of anyway. I think the strongest thing I have to go on is still my argument against TheCesspit from yesterday.

Well, you know, there's always the fact that eight of you voted to lynch neongrey, who turned out to be innocent. We could work with that information, instead of your not unreasonable, but not especially strong, argument against TheCesspit. Downplaying a major piece of information isn't going to incline me toward trusting you. I want to reread the Dripping Goofball lynch, because that's the vote you've cast that I can really put in your favor, but it's a confusing timeline of changes regarding who would be lynched at deadline, and I'd like to see exactly where you fall in that. If not for that, I'd be ready to vote you.

[Fuldu]

That might be reasonable if I could see any justification for calling neongrey's behavior suspicious. The only real argument I see made is Thesp's, which he was pushing fairly emphatically. And little of that made any sense back when it was still possible that neongrey was scum, and less so now.

[Fuldu]

vote: cesspit

The lynch i've wanted for a while now .

For 2 days we've lynched a player that looked "suspicious" and turned up town. I'm sure after we lynch cesspit scum, we'll be able to draw a conclusion on which people on the wagons are scum. .

Didn't you say you wanted to do that today?

unvote, vote: Neongrey

I suppose this is the move for today... but, even if Neon turns up town, we'll be able to cross check who pushed her wagon and see who voted during the "quick vote" area.

You've equivocated your way onto both of the town lynches, all the while pushing this Cesspit/MoS choice. I've already said once that you've seemed really scummy the past two days, but that your superior voting record keeps me from voting you. You should keep in mind that that buffer of tolerance is dwindling.

[Fuldu]

Thanks for posting all that vote count stuff, Twomz. It clarified something for me that I'd missed (as a result of the mistake in it, but that's not your fault).

Think about the argument you're making against Cesspit, Twomz. Now look at some of creampuffeater's posts.

Vote: DG

people that disagree with fritz day 1= great random/ begginging vote. Huggle fritz already a gg bg list? I think its early... but ok

Wow this game has gotten much wierder....

Unvote DG, Fos: Tidus

and TheCesspit I think that TheCesspit is scummier, because I just dont understant where he is going with that pressure vote thingy, pressure votes always seem to work when I see them. Also the whole we are voting him for why he voted MoS seems like he tried to direct attention to MoS not himself. Tidus isnt much better, but I do not find him as scummy as TheCesspit. I will refrain voting for now uuntill I can better understand this crazy situation we are in.

hmmm I agree with Thecesspit, and agree that with no follow up

pooky

does look suspicious, and I also dont really find

DGB

all that suspicious... cause she is always like that and if you find it scummy then pretty much everything she does is scummy. I really dont know who is scum atm, but I think Fritz is just not bieng his nornal self (which does catch scum) so vote stands on fritz

Caught scum show up in most of the comparative posts as the less suspicious individual, but often in such a way as to be justifiable later on. Also, a random vote on DGB at the beginning that doesn't threaten her but creates some amouont of voting pattern.

The only contrast to this is that creampuff was on the tidus lynch before he outed himself, and that deserves some slack. But what I find odd is that, instead of being emboldened by a successful lynch, creampuff seems to have backed off substantially since then, as if it wasn't quite the outcome he was hoping for.

vote: creampuffeater

[Fuldu]

Yes, Twomz, that was the mistake I was referencing. Checking the actual post record indicates that creampuffeater was voting and the "not voting" bit in Norinel's count was mistaken. Given the context of this particular game, we know it isn't possible that creampuffeater was doing both.

[Fuldu]

I still like my creampuffeater vote from yesterday. Between Flay and Fritzler (not the only options, but the main two under discussion), I'm more inclined to suspect Flay, but past evidence suggests that I'm naturally more inclined to suspect Flay.

vote: creampuffeater

[Fuldu]

I'm more inclined to suspect

Flay

, but past evidence suggests that I'm naturally more inclined to suspect

Flay

.

Would I be right to assume that there should be a Fritzler in place of one of those Flays?

No, that sentence is correct. In this game, I suspect Flay more than I suspect Fritzler, but past experience indicates that I naturally tend to find Flay suspicious, whether he's scum or not, so that may not be the best indicator.

BuddyLee, did you reread my suspicion post against creampuff from yesterday? It covers more than the DG thing you mention.

[Fuldu]

I don't have three suspicions. I have one that I feel strongly about, but no one else seems to agree.

[Fuldu]

I won't speak to Fritzler's preferences in the matter, though it seems like you have them right, but for my part, I want you dead

before

Flay's lynch, creampuff. And the fact that you're reacting like that to one vote and an expression of suspicion makes me all the more inclined to suspect you. Also, the fact that you didn't vote for DGB is only part of the reason that I find you scummy. Your whole voting pattern is consistent with someone who was trying to seem somewhat suspicious of both DGB and tidus without putting them in any real danger of being lynched.

[Fuldu]

That is quite possibly the stupidest reason for putting the hammer on a lynch that I've ever seen.