Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!


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Post Post #17 (isolation #0) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 9:18 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Vote: Dripping Goofball
for a weird kickoff. What makes HezLucky so special that he'd be your automatic first-draft pick for scum recruitment?

Fuldu has a point though (as usual), in that any game of "who got recruited" is going to degenerate into WIFOM faster than you can say Humperdink. Unfortunately it's the only lead we'll have, as we're bereft of special roles on this mountaintop.

So the question them becomes, "Are they the sort of mafia that would choose the best player, or the Xth best player?" And I'm not at all sure we can answer that this early in the game.
Norinel wrote:I will try to have a little flavor...
Does that make you the expired tour guide? :P
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Post Post #60 (isolation #1) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:12 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

I wish I'd kept the snapshot I had of the partial confirmation list, because I think scum would be more likely to recruit (and converse with?) an early/often poster than someone about to be replaced. So I can see some of the logic of the Sparrow's-not-scum crowd.

Unvote: DG
for right now because this wagon is going WAY too fast without even a vote count yet. More tomorrow.
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Post Post #61 (isolation #2) » Wed Mar 22, 2006 8:13 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Errr, Sparrow's not the
recruit
... nothing says he can't be one of the original Asian Mafia, after all.
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Post Post #80 (isolation #3) » Thu Mar 23, 2006 5:07 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

tidus_of_zanarkand wrote:Also TheCessPit seems very on the fence and making safe statements all the time. I will
unvote TheCessPit
because my original vote was very weak to begin with.
Ehh? You find Cesspit' to be "playing it safe" and then unvote him? Where's the logic in that? Also, what's magic about page 5 for lynching DG? We have until late April, if it comes to that...

I think broomhead has a point about the dangers of speculation, but there's also no power roles to protect.

I'm also curious why HezLucky thinks it's only good to talk about the recruit on D1?
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Post Post #94 (isolation #4) » Fri Mar 24, 2006 5:49 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

I'm here, but I am going to be away from the computer at least the rest of today, if not most of the weekend. Will post something substantive when I get back.
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Post Post #148 (isolation #5) » Mon Mar 27, 2006 8:50 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Errr, without obviating any of my prior suspicions or delivering that promised analysis just yet,
Vote: Mastermind of Sin
. Without a power role, someone who doesn't talk is less than useless, they're actually hindering the game. So either you're scum, or you're dead weight.

And yes, I've gotten on you about this before (ever since Guitarists, I think), but it applies even moreso in this game because you can't possibly have the "I was protecting my copness" defense. Post or Perish.
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Post Post #160 (isolation #6) » Tue Mar 28, 2006 5:21 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Mastermind of Sin wrote:spring break ends a week from yesterday. also, see my previous post.
So wait, are you saying that during spring break you can post MORE, or post LESS?

Sorry, I am coming back to do more analysis, but work is kicking my ass right now - boss has been out of the office for a week. :x
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Post Post #192 (isolation #7) » Thu Mar 30, 2006 3:19 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Alright, let's finally try this:

neongrey - first post, susp. of Mini Neo. Largely silent soon after that.
DG: Fecking weird, but her misunderstanding of the way recruitment works is a point in favor of her not being one of the original 3 mafioso. Targets HezLucky out of the gate, and continues to do so up til now. I honestly don't get this idea that she somehow tried to "clear" fritzler, though.
Fritzler, on the other hand, knows how the recruitment works. Possible point against. Also as other players have pointed out, his playstyle is fairly difficult to get a read on.
TheCesspit pops in and says he's watching.
broomhead likewise doesn't understand how recruitment works. Ditto JamesSparrow, although at this point it's becoming something people can just parrot to feign ignorance.
HezLucky shows up and says that he'd pick LML as the most likely recruit. No comment on DG, which is interesting.
Twomz comments that Fritzler is likely to die before the end of the game, so he can be tested later. This is an interesting point, in that with no power/protective roles, it's unlikely many of the "good" players will live very long. Mafia can pick them off one at a time over the nights, if they don't get them during the day. Lee has the same idea later, and says the recruit may in fact be a relative newbie. Any of the "top tier" players who live to endgame are going to be naturally suspicious.
Thoth pops in and votes RA for voting the non-playing CoolBot. Not sure what to think about this idea...
The bandwagon on DG gets to 6 or 7 before people start slowing down, and CessPit, Lee, & DG make the comment "there's mafia on that wagon!" Hardly earthshattering, but a point of common logic. Common logic may equal common allegiance, once we start to know what side people are on.
Cesspit then amends to say that DG could be one of the "at least one mafia" on the wagon. This just strikes me as weird.
neongrey seems to be largely flying under the radar at this point, as is broomhead and TSAGod. Of course, MoS is explicitly in "visible stealth" mode...
tidus, then, simultaneously accuses Cesspit of "playing it safe" and unvotes him. What the heck?
Cesspit makes a good point about noengrey's "pressure votes", when there's nothing to give up to a bandwagon. No role name, no power roles to be lost. All a bandwagon gets you here is psychological reaction. Unfortunately a good player is going to be largely immune to this, and a bad one will give up "scum tells" whether they're actually scum or not. Not sure where I'm going with this, but the whole game is different than most...
I don't think Cesspit's "some show of pro-town behavior" is really that scummy. It's sort of an odd statement to make, but it's too obvious to be a real slipup (granted, I may be biased since I'm playing worth crap in Clue right now, and being suspected for it). I'm actually more suspicious of TSAGod for mocking it in placing his vote on Cesspit; humor/relaxation is easy for scum, especially lurkers who come back to vote.
DG's defense of tidus is very interesting, however. I'm liking my early vote more and more now...
Fritzler inexplicably jumps on the stalled MoS bandwagon, ignoring tidus completely.
MoS finally shows up.
A tidus wagon develops like a steamroller. While there's plenty of reason for it, it seems similarly suspicious to the one that landed on DG earlier in the Day. Looking at the counts, it's interesting that exactly zero people voted for both players (Fritzler, Fuldu, myself, Twomz, LoudmouthLee, creampuffeater voted for DG initially, and HezLucky, Mastermind of Sin, DG voted for tidus so far). Scum spreading out their votes? Too early to tell.

At this point I'd support a lynch on DG, MoS, tidus, or TSAGod. Since my existing vote is on the game leader, no reason to change it now, but those are my FoSes. Sorry it took me so long to get to them...
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Post Post #230 (isolation #8) » Sat Apr 01, 2006 8:18 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

That should be a lynch. Assuming this isn't an April Fool's joke...
Unvote: Mastermind of Sin, Vote: tidus of quittingland
.
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Post Post #241 (isolation #9) » Wed Apr 05, 2006 4:39 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Twomz wrote:Either Hezlucky was right, and the mafia didn't want him to voice his opinion, or Hezlucky was right and the mafia wan'ted to throw us off w/ WIFOM, or Hezlucky was wrong and the mafia wanted to throw us off w/ WIFOM...
Huh?
I'm going to
Vote: MoS
based on Hezlucky's logic. I'm hoping that HL was right and one of them is mafia :(.
Guess you've decided which glass you're going to drink from... I'm not so sure yet. I actually thought I was putting the hammer on tidus yesterday, but it looks like my vote switch didn't count. The fact that he cracked so easily could mean we're dealing with an overall newbish group of scum; that of course would increase the likelihood of an experienced player being recruited.

No vote yet.
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Post Post #252 (isolation #10) » Wed Apr 05, 2006 9:39 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fuldu wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:Errr, Sparrow's not the
recruit
... nothing says he can't be one of the original Asian Mafia, after all.
The last game I said this in, I was wrong, but I stand by the argument that players who use the official name of the mafia on Day One instead of referring to them generically are more likely to be scum.
As Fritzler said, "Reading is scummy". It says in the very first post of the thread what the role PMs say...
Mr. Flay wrote:That should be a lynch. Assuming this isn't an April Fool's joke...Unvote: Mastermind of Sin, Vote: tidus of quittingland.
Voting after the hammer has already dropped, expressing doubts about the veracity of the scum claim, and especially venting about quitting all point to scum, to me.
As you might recall, JEEP briefly screwed up the threads on April Fool's Day. I did a manual count and it looked like tidus had 11/12 needed when I voted. Later after the count was fixed I think I ended up being 13th, and Norinel opted not to change my vote in the final tally. I can't prove that, of course, since I didn't take a screen capture, but that's what happened on my end. It really did seem bizarrely easy to catch a scum on D1 of a Mountainous game, is all...
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Post Post #253 (isolation #11) » Wed Apr 05, 2006 9:40 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Should we just replace MoS, since he's (once again) unable to contribute?
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Post Post #262 (isolation #12) » Wed Apr 05, 2006 4:55 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fuldu wrote:It has nothing to do with whether you were aware of that information. I had read it and was aware of it, so it's not like your use of the phrase "Asian Mafia" came as an enormous surprise to me.

It's a question of the psychology of who would be more likely to actually use the phrase in a post. People who are members of the group have internalized that description, and so are more likely to use it externally. People who aren't members of the group are (if, as you've pointed out, they've read at all carefully) aware of the name of the group, but are more likely to think of that group generically as "scum" than specifically as "the Asian Mafia." It doesn't matter to them one way or the other what the group is called - the important fact is just that they're the bad guy who must be done away with.
Sure, that makes sense in general. It matters to me because my very personality is that I'm pedantic, and I usually read through the whole opening posts even when it's blatantly simple like this game. I only generally use "scum" before I'm sure who they are, or not sure if it's mafia or an SK.

I just think you're a) wrong in this case, and b) generalizing without taking into account the characteristics of the player you're talking about/with.
I don't recall the threads ever being screwed up on April Fool's Day, just the avatars and user-related information (not including usernames).
To be more specific, there was a short period of time where certain threads were giving "No new posts in this topic" errors when they shouldn't. I don't know if that was the problem with my counting or not, but it looked like he had just reached 12, when in fact he had apparently just reached 11.
But that's less of a vital point here and you're right in saying that it's an unprovable issue. In general, it gives the impression that you're trying to appear in agreement with the lynch without having actually wanted it.
Well, we can argue about it until the cows come home, but it's my word against yours; worse than usual for WIFOM.
But for my main point, here again consider the mentality of a person who complains (even just a bit passive-aggressively) about tidus' giving up and admitting to being scum. I'm not saying that there's no reason a pro-town player might be upset about that. It makes the game less fun when other players give up.

For a pro-town player in this situation, that's going to be somewhat mediated by the fact that it's still early in the game, meaning that there's still a ways to go for the win. And, since we've lynched one scum, we have a bit more of a buffer to work with and additional information to build off of.

On the other hand, for scum, the annoyance of tidus being a poor sport is compounded by the fact that it's made scum's game that much more difficult. And so, they have greater reason to feel slighted by his actions, and therefore more of an emotional disposition toward complaining about it.

So, when someone complains about tidus quitting, I'm more inclined to think of them as likely to be scum. And in this case, that meant you. In then reading back over your posts, I came across the Asian Mafia comment, which I had missed yesterday, so I chose to include that. By my main argument is on the psychology of being annoyed enough at tidus to type "tidus_of_quittingland."
The only time I've ever not been annoyed at a quitter was in an old-style Newbie game when the Cop & Doc had us dead to rights. Other than that, I take the same attitude toward it that I do toward replacements; I think they damage the game and make it harder to enjoy/play. You already alluded to the fact that a bunch of people are now both simultaneously "off the hook" for voting their possible scum partner, and more suspicious for voting after he claimed scum (including me). How does that part make our job easier?

All of that being said, I'm not really inclined to think either MoS or TheCesspit are scum today, based on tidus' claim/FOS. Fritzler, on the other hand, ignored the bandwagon on tidus, and had some strange behaviors on D1 (I already mentioned that he's shown full awareness of the recruitment scheme AND said he has people in mind he might have recruited).
Vote: Fritzler
as a better option in my mind, today.
Yosarian2 wrote: Well, Tidus was clearly a newbie, but how does the way he broke under pressure tell us anything about the characteristics of the rest of the scum group?

...

I just want to understand Mr. Flay's logic here; it bothers me a little when the most experenced player in the game tries to imply that the scum are probably all new players, so I would like him to explain his logic here.
Gyeah. I am by far neither the most experienced player here nor the best. I'm actually a fairly lousy pro-town player, perhaps by virtue of not much experience... :roll:

That being said, I
do
have some insights into the criminal mind. My statement about tidus and his (potential) band of newbies is that if tidus felt like he wasn't going to get any support from teammates to deflect what was going on, that may have contributed to his fold. A newbie scum may stay 100% away from their partner, avoiding any defense whatsoever; I'm not even saying it's a good theory, just putting it out there.
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Post Post #279 (isolation #13) » Fri Apr 07, 2006 1:51 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Seems like scum would be trying to stir the pot in a game like this (well, some of them may be lurking). TSA's behavior there *is* odd, as I can't figure out why anyone here would jump to someone else's defense.

That said, I'm content finding out what happens with Fritzler first rather than switching to TSA.
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Post Post #298 (isolation #14) » Sat Apr 08, 2006 6:38 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

DrippingGoofball wrote:Mmmm... I already explained in Post 243 that I am rather unlikely to vote for MoS. Recent inactivity in the thread suggests to me that some people are waiting in ambush. Or busy painting Easter eggs with re-hydrated yak blood.
Yak's blood, yak's blood, rolly polly yak's blood.... (bonus points to anyone who gets this)

Yosarian, all kidding aside, wouldn't that make Fritzler the lynch for today and TSA maybe tomorrow? I guess it doesn't matter either way, they're either scum or not, just trying to make sure I understand your analysis there.

Really, I think Fritzler is less than helpful as town, and dangerous as scum, because he's so random/hard-to-read. Hence my vote.
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Post Post #315 (isolation #15) » Sun Apr 09, 2006 4:39 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fritzler wrote:Why do you say this, but earlier you said you thought you had me read because i didn't jump on a bandwagon?
Mr. Flay on Day One wrote:Fritzler inexplicably jumps on the stalled MoS bandwagon, ignoring tidus completely.
And that was before we lynched tidus and found out he's scum. Who am I voting currently? The prosecution rests.

DG: actually, that's not the correct song I'm thinking of. More to the point, this whole "just joking" thing seems to point at you from the get-go, as you've been all over the sanity map thus far... I've not played with you before though, so I don't know if you're always like this.

MoS: Why can't you document someone's playstyle before they get to ten games? Regardless, that comment about Hez's theory was pretty scummy.
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Post Post #316 (isolation #16) » Sun Apr 09, 2006 4:39 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Errr, Cesspit's comment, not MoS's....less pronouns, please.
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Post Post #342 (isolation #17) » Tue Apr 11, 2006 3:55 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

DrippingGoofball wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:
DG: [...] this whole "just joking" thing seems to point at you from the get-go, as you've been all over the sanity map thus far... I've not played with you before though, so I don't know if you're always like this.
The "just joking" thing does NOT point at me. Let me acquaint you with my playstyle personally. I won't let you get away with saying that the "just joking" pointed at me.

The only jokes I did was to "show" MoS how to vote for Twomz instead of merely FOS'ing him, and to refer to "Barnes and Barnes" as fellow goofballs. Sorry - I won't let you paint me as the Himalayan Jester.
Your "lightheadedness" on D1, and your bit about avalanches today, are similarly joking posts that don't actually move the game forward in any way. However reading over your other posts I'd say you're pretty much always like this, so it doesn't tell me much.

Fritzler, then either TSA or Twomz, then DG, at this point. Already voting for my top pick.
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Post Post #385 (isolation #18) » Thu Apr 13, 2006 5:04 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

I'm not buying the Lee thing (or the MoS one, either). I've been scum with him before (not sure we've ever been town together), and he's careful. Lloyd's whole argument is predicated on a lot of assumptions that aren't necessarily generalizable (motivations from player to player vary, basing vote on one person on another person's actions, etc).

Meanwhile, Fritzler and DG look scummier by the second. What's with the "gotta be on a bandwagon" crap? I'm not even sure I've ever played with you outside of chat, so maybe you're both insane, but Fritzler still looks like a better lynch to me.
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Post Post #408 (isolation #19) » Fri Apr 14, 2006 4:05 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

I want to see Pooky's "Huggle Alliance" info as well (for a couple of reasons). Even if Lloyd did give good reasons, Pooky's usually articulate and competent.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #20) » Mon Apr 17, 2006 4:50 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Let's define our terms a bit here. "
normal
" and "
weird
" are in relation to the way a Reasonable Player (as in the legal definition) would act. Fritzler, on the other hand, is acting more 'normal' than usual, which is
unusual
for him. DGB seems to be 'weird' in every game, including this one, so that makes it her
usual
behavior and therefore fairly useless as a tell. Have I summed up effectively?

I've kind of lost the thread of what's going on here (sorry, weekend was busier than I expected and relatively few chances to post here). I'm still happy with my vote on Fritzler, but I could switch to Pooky if he doesn't start addressing some of the things he's already promised. MoS disappoints me, but at least he's posting. :P There's too many lurkers overall, myself probably included.
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Post Post #434 (isolation #21) » Tue Apr 18, 2006 7:35 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

I know it's a while ago, but I'd rather know what DG's original intent was with the question to Fritz. I think I can see where LML is going with this, but I don't have his certainty that it was a "slip". It looks more like pure illogic to me.

Keeping my vote where it is, but major FOS on Pooky for still keeping quiet.
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Post Post #453 (isolation #22) » Thu Apr 20, 2006 5:12 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Unvote: Fritzler


Not that I don't think he's scummy for having a behavioral change, but Pooky's being
entirely
unhelpful, and now says the HA was some sort of game concept?? Bull$#!t.

Vote: Pooky
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Post Post #466 (isolation #23) » Fri Apr 21, 2006 3:59 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Usually it's first-past-the-post, but Norinel's opening post didn't specify. Right now it looks like that means Pooky'd be the winner if nothing changes, as Twomz dropped LML to 4...
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Post Post #536 (isolation #24) » Tue Apr 25, 2006 6:15 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Sorry for being so absent. I knew the deadline was coming but this is the first time I've gotten to have a full read-through.
To me, PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Well what did you think the Huggle Alliance was?
Honestly? I had no idea. I'm not in Lights Out, and the idea of you trying to concoct a lynch-managing voter block didn't even cross my mind. The fact that you tried to do it in two games at once, apparently, and turned up town in the other one, doesn't give me any confidence in your pro-townness here.
DrippingGoofball wrote:
PookyTheMagicalBear wrote: [...] DGB's posts this game have been very bantery, it's often her style to befriend people this way and she's quite adept at it.
That's rich, coming from the leader of the Huggle Alliance and Adele's Weepy Lovesick Fan Club. As far as I know there is no "Goofball Alliance" which is a good thing for the Huggle Alliance, because we'd kick your teddy bear behinds.
Qouted for truth. Pooky is the last one who should be talking about being disarmingly friendly.
DrippingGoofball wrote:It's also possible that tidus was trying to throw people off in ways that aren't so obvious. Though if anything could be said about tidus, is that he was obvious indeed.
tidus melted down, but that doesn't mean he wasn't hiding in plain sight. The NK last night may have been part of a way to jump on HezLucky's luck and push something on TheCesspit or MoS, hence why I never voted for either of them.
PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Amazing Goofball, the reason I didn't want to begin a wagon on you and get you all up in votes is because I knew you were going to be on vacation, I didn't want you to come back close to deadline with a ton of votes on you and have not enough time to properly defend yourself. That's why I laid off on you and didn't come after you, I didn't explain my reasoning because I didn't want to have you run up while you were away!
That was very sweet of you, Pooks. Why are you standing up for another player, and why did your vote on DGB come SO late???
PookyTheMagicalBear melodramatically wrote:I care no longer what happens, your comment about me trying to distance myself from her doesn't even make any sense. If I were trying to distance myself from her I'd be voting her.(I'd definitely be voting her if I were scum)

I'd rather be lynched than to have to suffer through a game with the amount of lurking that this town has decided it can treat with such delightful complacency.

Is that somewhat suicidal and not very good for the town? Perhaps, but my 1 vote isn't going to make Goofball be lynched over me and I doubt that I would like to spend my time atop this windy peak with such silent arbiters who would throw my fate into the winds without the slightest care in all the world. I'd much rather spend my time here with Goofball, at least she speaks, even if she is scum.
I'm touched. But EVERY player's vote counts, unless they're scum who know that they can unvote at any moment for the slightest provocation. This looks like WIFOM, stone-cold bluffing.
Fritzler wrote:
TheCesspit wrote:
Fritzler wrote:
Vote Count:


PookyTheMagicalBear- 4 (Dead Rikimaru, Yosarian2, kirbyphreak, Mr. Flay)
LoudMouthLee- 4 (Lloyd, TSAGod, Fuldu, DrippingGoofball)
DrippingGoofball- 3 (LoudMouthLee, Fritzler, Mastermind of Sin)
TheCesspit- 1 (Twomz)

Not voting (7): broomhead, creampuffeater, JamesSparrow, neongrey, RandomActs, TheCesspit, PookyTheMagicalBear

10 to lynch, 5 at deadline.


we should probably pile some more votes on DGB
Shouldn't the GM be the only one posting the votes?

Isn't a bit off to post vote count and then add a bit of editorial?
why the hell can't i post one? i want to know who has how many votes so i did my own, why not give it to you guys?
It's sleazy. You gave yourself a bit of authority there, by making a vote count without even saying it was unofficial, associating your "we should pile more votes on" with it, that's what I have a problem with, anyway. Why didn't you want LML or Pooky to be the vote leader? You've been flailing your suspicions all over the place since Vote One.

Gods help me, I just don't see the emphasis on DGB. Her posting style started off wildly erratic, but she's straightened up since things got serious. I don't remember who posted that unusual play was most likely to be jumped on by scum..Fuldu? My vote's staying on Pooky.
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Post Post #543 (isolation #25) » Tue Apr 25, 2006 10:02 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fritzler wrote:so i should put the phrase unofficial before it?
Yes. The Mod makes official vote counts because the Mod is a disinterested party. if your VC had been "off" by one vote (accidentally or otherwise), and someone got lynched (accidentally or otherwise) as a result, wouldn't that be a poor result?

I've made them before, but I believe I've always put "Unofficial", or "Back of the envelope", or some other way of designating them as being player-based. I didn't even realize yours was a non-official count at first, until I noticed your name on my second read-through. It's not the cleverest scum ploy, when/if it happens, but it's not implausible. The appearance of impropriety is bad for your reputation. That said, Cesspit's apparent overreaction is noted.
Yosarian2 wrote:More then two games, actually; take a look at Speedy's current Big New York game, for example.
Huh. Looks a little different now that you mention it there, but clearly I'm not playing enough games these days. Things have become wildly different in the last couple of years....[/oldbie]
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Post Post #595 (isolation #26) » Mon May 01, 2006 7:27 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

neongrey wrote:I think by his statements, he's not going to be giving much further defense. I think he's made that clear. I don't see the reason for dithering on that level...
Maybe because some players haven't even checked in yet?? We only opened the thread like 2 days ago, isn't this a bit fast for a lynch?

I still think Fritzler or Pooky are the better bet, as our two scum caught so far are neither one I would consider a strong "recruited scum" candidate. We could possibly get so lucky as to speed-lynch the third random scum, but my money's not on it.
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Post Post #602 (isolation #27) » Mon May 01, 2006 4:26 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

I think broomhead was the hammer.

Fastest NY day I've ever seen.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #28) » Thu May 04, 2006 8:11 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fritzler wrote:hmmm.....my bad?

Vote: TheCesspit
I'd say so.

Vote: Fritzler
. I was wrong about Pooky being a likely recruit (forgot the replaced-in thing), but Fritz has been squirrely all game, and yesterday was just unconscionable. Everyone on that bandwagon ought to be ashamed, but Fritzler looks like he's angling for a repeat.
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Post Post #623 (isolation #29) » Fri May 05, 2006 5:13 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Fritz, your image is broken, at least for me. What were you trying to say there?

JS's sudden reappearance seems suspicious, but much happier with my vote where it is for now.
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Post Post #652 (isolation #30) » Tue May 09, 2006 3:52 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

neongrey wrote:I'm not the best lynch for today, in that the best possible lynch for today would involve lynching scum. If that's what you want to do, though, I won't kick and fuss. I can see how those things would seem scummy.
Errr? Why not put up a fuss? Won't your lynch hurt the town?
PookyThePolyglotBear wrote:vote Mr Flay

Valar Morghulis
Qu'est ce que c'est?
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Post Post #671 (isolation #31) » Thu May 11, 2006 6:29 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Hell, no sense in switching my stellar record so far in this game (I don't think I've been on a single successful lynch of either side). I still rpefer Pooky and/or Fritzler at this point, and neongrey is much further down in my view. What's the case, particularly, against them? Not that we don't have some wiggle room to remove suspicious townies, but there's no reason to squander it, is there?

Trying to stay caught up here and in other games. Next post likely Friday, though.
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Post Post #673 (isolation #32) » Thu May 11, 2006 7:32 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Errr, what's the case against "him" (neongrey), that should have said...I know what I think about Fritz & Pooks.
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Post Post #683 (isolation #33) » Fri May 12, 2006 6:22 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Flay's clearly wiggling under pressure from the amazing pair of Pooky/Fritz who've cornered his scumbucket butt in the corner!

He's so clearly the recruited scumbag.

The way he was talking about looking for the recruited player and how niether Tidus nor Goofball were likely to have been recruited is what gives it away.
No. The recruit, as we discussed back in early Day One, stands to reason that they'd be an experienced player. Whether they'd be a VERY experienced player or just someone who's been around a while, I don't think anyone disagreed that the recruit, whoever they were, was unlikely to be a pure newbie.

I think/hope we can rule out tidus from that list. DGB, maybe, but she did ask some leading questions D1. There's enough of a feel of "distancing" between her and Fritzler (especially when Fritz comes out and says he thinks DGB is scum,
sans
investigation or any real reason at all, but then backs off and jumps down MoS' throat, staying there during the tidus lynch. Then D2 he jumps not back onto DGB, but back onto MoS (who I've never seen as scummy, except for his lurking), and then onto TSAGod, then LML, before finally switching to DGB. D3 deserves no real comment, of course, except that he did no jumping around whatsoever. I don't think Fritzler is above exploiting weakness in his teammates, and in a game with no investigative roles, it's relatively easy for scum to get on and off wagons, since they're all based on information available in thread, and thus they can't get "caught" by a cop who is holding a trump card.

But back to your original postulate, why would they recruit me? Aside from the above, what reasoning do you have to suspect me as the recruit, specifically? (Given my game history, I'd think a natural born scum would have been a statistically more likely analysis).
Yosarian2 wrote:Again, why the two of them?
The above was meant to be a reply to Pooky, but it serves half the purpose of answering your question as well. As for Pooky, I don't trust him. Anyone who speaks with that much certainty in a mountainous game is either a) insane, b) a god among mafia hunters, or c) scum. I've seen what he can do once he gains the town's favor, even if it means starting with some sacrificial plays, and I don't like that prospect here. Of course others can see it in other ways.

It's mountainous. Even given tidus' meltdown and DGB's spazzing, we're doing well. REALLY well. I think too well, which is why I think scum are all over the early wagons, to stir up dust for the endgame.
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Post Post #688 (isolation #34) » Sun May 14, 2006 6:43 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Errr? I don't think I've said since page 1 that scum had "much better" options than me to recruit; I'm just not including myself in my OWN analysis because I know what my role is. Occasionally it's useful to WIFOM like that, but pointing a finger at yourself in a game like this is tantamount to suicide.
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Post Post #700 (isolation #35) » Mon May 15, 2006 5:16 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Yosarian2 wrote:I realize that none of that is very solid, it's more suggestive then anything else. Still, right now, Mr. Flay, you are currently third on my list of possible suspects, after neongray and TheCesspit.
Fair enough. My gameplay has been crap lately, and I'm usually not 0-3 on participating in lynches, even when I AM scum (I'm usually one of those sell-out-your-weak-partner types). I
did
think I was dropping the hammer on tidus D1, but I can't prove that externally.

Is TheCesspit still primarily under suspicion because of tidus' either-or comment? Just curious, I didn't think I'd seen much of anything else. Not willing to drop the hammer on neon until we finish discussing things today, we've still got plenty of time before deadline. Besides, I think I've got a better scum candidate in Fritz, even if no one else does.
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Post Post #719 (isolation #36) » Wed May 17, 2006 4:31 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

PookyTheMagicalBear wrote:Silliness Flay, voting Tidus after he confessed his guilt isn't going to absolve you regardless of whether you were the lynching vote or not.
You're right, he melted down, I voted, Norinel didn't count it, and here I am. People keep bringing it up though as some sort of scum tell though, when it all happened in just a few hours.
Dead Rikamaru wrote:Could you please explain why is Fritzler such a good scum candidate?
  • Interaction between him and DGB on Day One. Almost no one takes D1 bandwagons very seriously, but they're an excellent way to establish distancing.
  • Fritzler coming on as more 'serious' and his playstyle being different than it usually is, by his own admission once he got called on it.
  • His certainty with his suspicions. In this game, the only ones with knowledge are the scum. This goes double for Pooky in my book.
Pooky says DGB wasn't a weak partner, but then why did she die so early? Why did tidus go down in flames? tidus specifically said he wasn't going to give up his partners, which nobody expects scum to do, but why did he say that? I don't think it was because of TheCesspit or MoS, honestly.
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Post Post #726 (isolation #37) » Thu May 18, 2006 7:16 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Actually, I'd think broomhead will look worse if neongrey ISN'T scum. Why hammer someone you don't think is scum?

Fritzler, I have no idea what you're trying to say there. Super serial? Anyway, no I wouldn't RATHER you were irrelevant, but when you change your behavior, it makes me suspicious.
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Post Post #748 (isolation #38) » Sun May 28, 2006 8:59 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

I'm here, my conference is done. I still think broomhead is more suspicious for hammering a townie than scum, so that would be my top choice for right now.

Why Pooky last night? Why not sooner, since all kills will have to go through? He was on his game earlier, pushing strongly for DGB, but lately has been less "magical". Hell for that matter, why kirby/logicitus N2?

Of the remaining players, my List™ would look something like this (this is back of the envelope, just to stir up discussion):
  • broomhead - unsteady play, hammering neongrey despite saying he didn't think he was scum. Also hammered RandomActs on D3, our first townie lynch.
  • Fritzler - previously mentioned.
  • creampuffeater = too quiet, goes with the crowd, some defense of DGB.
  • Dead Rikimaru - on against TheCesspit and me.
  • JamesSparrow (Replacing Hallisy) - doing the absolute minimum, not helpful, seems "lost" all the time.
  • TheCesspit - somewhat defended by DGB early (and defending of, in retrospect), seems to be doing enough to get by, earlier I didn't see the case against him but now I'm not so sure. Of course I don't think it's him
    and
    Dead Rik... however he does think the same about Fritzler as I do.
  • Thesp (Replacing TSAGod) - not sure on him though, too quiet (except for the spamming posts of yesterday). Rabid about killing neongrey.
  • Twomz - not bad, somwhat quiet but seems to have a good grasp on the game.
  • Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said."
  • MrBuddyLee (Replacing LoudMouthLee) - LML was replaced which doesn't help :/ But Lee was never high on my list, so he defaults to the bottom tier.
  • Lloyd (Replacing Thoth) - bottom tier. Not much problem with anything he's said, except when he's after me of course. :roll:
  • Fuldu - seems damn solid. Only question is why is he still alive?
  • Mr. Flay - err, yeah.
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Post Post #764 (isolation #39) » Tue May 30, 2006 6:21 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote: [*]Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said.
That comment of mine was just sort of a general statement of annoyance that MOS was getting all offended at me for something I didn't even say; I didn't really mean anything more then that by it.
Damn, I live for that sort of game analysis (when I have time to do it, anyway).

creampuffeater's actual vote was on neongrey at the end of D4, whatever Norinel's error was. He should know damn well that this was the case, and trying to throw off Twomz' analysis is just scumtastic. I concur with Fuldu:
Vote: creampuffeater
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Post Post #774 (isolation #40) » Wed May 31, 2006 8:04 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Helllooo....where are all the lurkers?
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Post Post #786 (isolation #41) » Thu Jun 01, 2006 4:21 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Huh, I didn't realize we already had 6 of 7 needed. I lost most of last week, sorry folks.
MrBuddyLee wrote:Mr. Flay, after the RA mislynch you voted Fritzler out of the gate. I saw his Cesspit lynch vote right before your post as the logical one right then, and it was Pooky who pretty much rang up RA, not Fritzler. So why'd you get so aggressive on Fritzler there instead of Pooky?
Eh? I think I've been fairly equally on Pooky and Fritz, maybe leaning a little more towards Fritz since he pegged DGB for no obvious reason D1, and has been acting funny as opposed to Pooky just acting like Pooky (more or less). I wasn't going off of any one action when I voted Fritz, just continuing my earlier suspicions. Also, pegging Pooky tends to get his friends against you, and whether I was right or wrong about Pooky I needed more information first...
I'm most likely to vote Cesspit once I hear answers to the above questions. I thought he was the logical lynch after day 2, but Pooky got the ball moving in another direction. Cess spent days 3-4 quibbling about unofficial vote counts and next to Twomz, he was the lamest vote on neongrey (basically stated no opinion.)
Lamer than broomhead??
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Post Post #798 (isolation #42) » Fri Jun 02, 2006 8:49 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

MrBuddyLee wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:(was cess's vote on neon) Lamer than broomhead??
This is like asking if the Backstreet Boys were lamer than Milli Vanilli. They were both terrible.
Okay, you've got a point there... :lol:
Cess's reason for voting neon straddled the fence, the same way he straddled on DGB
Yeah, but DGB was scum while neongrey was town. I think that shows more about the personality of the player and not whether or not he's scum, particularly.

Not much change since my last post, but I still prefer creampuffeater to TheCesspit; I don't think they're both our remaining scum, however, and I still prefer broomhead to either, but there's no momentum there.
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Post Post #810 (isolation #43) » Sun Jun 04, 2006 2:35 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

What exactly do you expect to change in the next 50 hours? Another scummy meltdown? Or are you just making sure we're done with non-Cesspit discussion?
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Post Post #813 (isolation #44) » Sun Jun 04, 2006 4:48 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Well, creampufeater is next most likely to be lynched if the Cesspit bandwagon falters, so that seems like enlightened self-interest. I'm more concerned by broomhead's complete silence of late...
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Post Post #818 (isolation #45) » Tue Jun 06, 2006 3:24 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Unvote, Vote: broomhead
for reasons stated repeatedly throughout the day. I still think his hammering of two townies while hemming and hawing about their guilt is the scummiest thing going.
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Post Post #822 (isolation #46) » Tue Jun 06, 2006 5:15 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Or that...
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Post Post #834 (isolation #47) » Sat Jun 10, 2006 4:26 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

Gyeah. Guess I can't vote for both of them, can I?

Vote: Fritzler
although I could switch to broomhead with little prodding.

JS, what's the "oh god?" about?
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Post Post #839 (isolation #48) » Mon Jun 12, 2006 2:14 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Dead Rikimaru wrote:What I want to know from the Fritzler hunters (specially Lloyd) is:
- Do you agree with the Fritzler + MrBuddyLee (LML) combo?
- If not, please explain why Fritzler caused DGB to be lynched by convincing Pooky to give the last vote while he could just kept silent and see LML being lynched instead.

In case of doubt about what I'm talking about please read again Day2.
No, I think I know what you're talking about. It's a possibility that those are our two remaining scum, as experienced+experienced could last this long while the newbies got offed so early, but that's by no means a sure thing. I think Broomhead and Fritzler have been much scummier than LML/MBL so far; remember that Fritzler called DGB scum in like his second post. At that point he was committed to the idea, and if he'd argued against her, it may have gone badly for him.

We're getting very close to a WIFOM endgame here I think; there's almost certainly AN experienced scum left, because experienced players are being left alive (me, Fritz, LML up til replacement, Lloyd, etc). But who?
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Post Post #842 (isolation #49) » Mon Jun 12, 2006 4:48 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Yosarian2 wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote: We're getting very close to a WIFOM endgame here I think; there's almost certainly AN experienced scum left, because experienced players are being left alive (me, Fritz, LML up til replacement, Lloyd, etc). But who?
You?

vote:Mr. Flay


I've had a bad feeling about you for most of the game; quite a few people have, in fact, but somehow you just never made it to the top of anyone's list.
Yeah, I'm still alive, and I'm in the "experienced" tier. So are you, thanks for reminding me. If "quite a few" people have suspicions, I'm sure they'll bring them up, but for right now you're just using an Appeal to the Majority. How about something specific I can refute?
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Post Post #845 (isolation #50) » Tue Jun 13, 2006 10:29 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Yos: I'm inherently conservative when it comes to throwing the hammer; therefore even on the chance that broomhead is a bloodthirsty townie, I don't see it as pro-town/helpful behavior. That sort of thing can get us killed should we reach a Lynch-Or-Lose endgame. I would NEVER say that a lynch is a foregone conclusion before the hammer is thrown; just looking at the voting pattern in this game should answer that, and we don't have any investigative/useful roleclaims to rescue people.

My voting record is fairly indefensible; I was way more absent for the early game than I expecetd to be, what with work eating my soul for several months. As I've said on numerous occasions, though, I'm better as scum than town, generally speaking. Why would my voting record be so poor here, if I knew I could do something about it? I'm trying to plug in now, hence my uptick in posting. I've already laid out who I think is scum, though, which is verifiable/set in stone now for future reference.

I've not played with Fritzler much, actually. A little bit of scumchat, Newbie 165, and Good Omens look like it on quick glance. On the one hand, he says he's playing differently; on the other, he's still going after people for little/no obvious reason. A three-way discussion between us, however, is likely to just benefit the scum, whoever they are....
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Post Post #854 (isolation #51) » Wed Jun 14, 2006 6:02 pm

Post by Mr. Flay »

MrBuddyLee wrote:
Mr. Flay wrote:A three-way discussion between us, however, is likely to just benefit the scum, whoever they are....
If the three of you are town, that's correct, you're more likely to whip up paranoia and end up lynching an innocent. But if one or more of you is scum, your discussion is nearly certain to benefit town. Also, you've been finding Fritzler scummy, and are currently voting for him, but that statement just kinda implied you think he's town.
Sorry; what I meant to say there was that few-person discussions in a game with this many players left means a) lurking scum get off free for a while, and b) scum in that small group have a comparatively greater chance to control the tone of the discussion. I'm not certain about Fritzler, of course; I think I just find him scummy/irritating in general.
Unvote: Fritzler

Fuldu wrote:In this game, I suspect Flay more than I suspect Fritzler, but past experience indicates that I naturally tend to find Flay suspicious, whether he's scum or not, so that may not be the best indicator.
*laugh* Ain't that the truth. We're we in the (losing) endgame of Good Omens, going at each other's throats?

I'm having a hard time seeing Lloyd as scum, therefore the person voting for him jumps up on my list.
Vote: broomhead
, he's still flipping my triggers, and more actively than Fritz of late.
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Post Post #861 (isolation #52) » Sun Jun 18, 2006 7:27 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

Ergh. I'm still here, where is everybody else?

Yos: You've got a point about the deadline doing the work for him, I just never like the "well, I don't really think this person is scum, but I'm going to vote for/lynch them so we can get on with the game." I think it's anti-town behavior regardless of which faction you're in (and a reason I won't play with certain players anymore, it's too tempting to venge-vote them).
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Post Post #863 (isolation #53) » Mon Jun 19, 2006 4:35 am

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Well, crap. I didn't notice I was headliner for the deadline yesterday. I'd say I don't understand "all" of the votes on me, but there's only 4 of them total, so...

Same question as the other day: Are you all willing to let a small number of people push a deadline lynch onto the group? If my accusers could be more specific I'd be able to answer more, but at this point they just seem to be riding the wave to my death. That'll make it 7-2 tomorrow, not bad but by no means as good as if you'd lynched scum. The number of lurkers makes me want to get out, anyway, in a way.
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Post Post #869 (isolation #54) » Tue Jun 20, 2006 6:36 am

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Fritzler wrote:i am :confirmed: bitches
Wait. Explain it to me like I'm a five-year-old: How does Pooky's death make you confirmed? Is this one of those Huggle Alliance things?
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Post Post #872 (isolation #55) » Tue Jun 20, 2006 9:55 am

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But why? If Pooky was doing such a bangup job in this game (and he was, at first at least), why not kill him early? Why not kill a threatening player, in a game WITHOUT docs? That's what I'm trying to understand, and where I think the nightkill choices come into play here:
Norinel wrote:tidus_of_zanarkand (Mafia) - lynched Day 1
HezLucky (Townie) - killed Night 1
kirbyphreak (Replacing logicticus) (Townie) - killed Night 2
Mastermind Of Sin (Townie) - killed Night 3
PookyTheMagicalBear (Replacing Mini Neo) (Townie) - killed Night 5
Thesp (Replacing TSAGod) (Townie) - killed Night 6
I'm not saying the lynches aren't important, because they are, but there's a lot of bad plays/bad information in there. NKs, on the other hand, are 100% and solely the responsibility of the mafia, so they're a clear insight into the scum personality in this game, unadulterated by power role considerations. A criminal profile, if you will.

I'm not sure what happened to N4, hang on... okay, it looks like just a miscount, Pooky was killed the night after MoS. The only one that sticks out of the
dead
is kirbyfreak, and possibly MoS. But why are the rest of us still alive? Okay, scratch that, I know I'm alive 'cause I've been a terrible player this time around. But why Lloyd, whose logic has been unassailable? Fritzler, who pegged DGB D1? Yosarian? Fuldu, for crissake, who I'd have killed on general principle a long time ago... :wink: Lee/BuddyLee? Twomz?
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Post Post #880 (isolation #56) » Wed Jun 21, 2006 5:26 am

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I'd offer the novel concept of lynching broomhead today so that we don't have to replace him, but I'm pretty sure no one cares at this point. :roll: Better to do the mafia's work for them and off the experienced players...

Yos: I know, I didn't get much out of looking at the nightkills either, I was just looking for something, ANYTHING, to stir discussion back up...
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Post Post #886 (isolation #57) » Thu Jun 22, 2006 2:29 am

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We've got more like 18 hours, Yos. However with broomhead replaced, as much as I don't like it,
Unvote:CES, Vote: creampuffeater
.

Post, ya bastards!
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Post Post #893 (isolation #58) » Thu Jun 22, 2006 11:28 am

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Bah. I'm a ghost like Elvis...
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Post Post #1073 (isolation #59) » Sat Aug 05, 2006 7:06 am

Post by Mr. Flay »

*laugh* Holy (&%^*$* - we made it??? Unreal - major props to MBL/LML for ballsy playing.

Town did a good job, actually, especially knocking us down 1-2 in the first two days. But as somebody else said, that created a lot of confusion later on as to who could be paired together. If it hadn't been for Fritzler's "confirmation", my ploy to attack him relentlessly might have gotten him lynched, too.

I was running WIFOM the entire game, of course....when Norinel sent me the PM that I'd been recruited, I thought "well, crap, that's too obvious..."

Good game, everybody, but especially the Lees!
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Post Post #1083 (isolation #60) » Fri Aug 25, 2006 2:58 am

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kirbyphreak wrote:Why the heck did scum NK me night 2? I still can't figure that out....
Actually, that was completely random (literally). We missed our deadline by a couple of hours, and Norinel's rules stated that no choice would end up in a random kill.

So MoS, you can say we were lucky to kill you when we did, but you actually got an extra night's grace. ;)
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Post Post #1087 (isolation #61) » Mon Aug 28, 2006 7:22 am

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Yeah, Mountainous is probably better suited to smaller games (a 3-15 seems like it might be fair, like 2-10). It was a good game overall, with a lot of excellent play on both sides.
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