Slightly Obsolete Analysis From Us wrote:5. DrippingGoofball Mist7676 <--Vanilla claim, apparently. (Personal town-read of ours, but we'll be looking at her objectively to make sure she's town, just in case.)
6. VinegarEater jilynne1991** <--"Paranoid Gun Owner". Note the quotations.
7. bvoigt <--Null, weak town-lean.
12. PeregrineV <--Null,
scum-lean
.
Edit: Claimed doctor, confirmed town.
15. NobodySpecial <--Cop claim.
17. xRECKONERx <--Apparent Innocent of NS.
18. Amrun Parabollocks** <--Heavy scum suspect.
19. chkballin <--Backup Roleblocker claim. Despite evidence that the roleblocker is indeed scum--targets of Thor (N1), ? (N2), Us (N3+4), and NS (N5). None of those are town-motivated.
20. Celebloki <--Apparent innocent of NS.
We've had these power-role claims:
Cop (krypt, dead N1 [our vig, sowwy
]), (Other) Cop (NS), two-shot Vig (Thor, dead N4), Paranoid Gun Owner (Jily/Vinegar), Full-Vig (us), doctor (
?--but
PeregrineV's
pretty much confirmed with so many missing scum kills), and Backup Roleblocker (chkballin).
Now, seven roles of that strength in a 22 player game isn't as bad as we originally assumed--with a weak scumteam of 4, it's way too much, sure. It seems like at LEAST two claims would have to be false and even THAT might not be enough. (Hence, why a 4-man scumteam is way too weak, even with their last member being an RB.)
With a mediocre scumteam of 5, it can go many ways--one lie (this is most likely), two lies (doubtful), or maybe all true (extremely doubtful). With a 6-man scumteam, versus 7 power roles, it looks like that for symmetrical purposes, one has to be lying.
From this, we've concluded:
-If NS flips scum, Vinegar and chkballin are both confirmed town.
-If NS flips town, one of Vinegar and chkballin is scum, but the other is town.
This will be the foundation for our reads.
However, the setup speculation is not finished. With 3 Goons, that means that a scumteam of 5 would have to be incredibly powerful (especially in the one-lie or all-true scenarios). We know one of their roles is a Roleblocker. That's pretty much confirmed. The other would have to be Godfather. (Whether it's investigation-immune or kill-immune, I dunno. It'd have to be one or the other, but not both.)
With a team of 6, this is more ambiguous. We know they have a roleblocker. They'd obviously have at least one more Goon, making their team Goon x 4, Roleblocker, and ?.
The question mark role probably wouldn't be a Rolecop--the scum's kills seem to have mostly been on mediocre players. This implies their kills are generally geared towards PR-hunting. Tomie and *numbers* for instance both reek of being PR-hunts, since neither were epiphanies of towniness. Hence, their last role can't be that.
It could be a Godfather.
If NS is town, the chances of an investigation-immune Godfather are higher, since two cops is overall stronger than one full-vig and another limited-shot vig.
If NS is scum, the chances of an nk-immune Godfather are SIGNIFICANTLY higher, since one cop is weaker than a full vig plus limited-shot vig.
NS has claimed to be roleblocked, last night. If NS is town and not lying, this implies to me that the scum are still afraid of him--that they fear his investigation. In other words, if NS is town, they still can be caught. This'd imply that either
1: the godfather was already investigated (leaving only goon/RB to be investigated, neither of which is a good thing for them), or
2: there is no godfather (but then what the heck would their last scum PR be?!?)
Which means that if NS is town, {Celebloki, Reck} contains one scum. Making {Celebloki, Reck} and {chkballin, Vinegar} be 2/3 of our scum.
If NS is scum, however, it theoretically could imply the same thing: NS has given four results. An innocent on us (Vig--or to you crazy conspiracy theorists, SK, but either way, not the issue), a guilty on SleepyKrew, and two further innocents on Celebloki and Reck. Seems like a dangerous amount to call town.
This'd have been confirmed if NS added another result to his claim in the NS-is-scum scenario. However, since NS claims to be blocked, this could imply that NS's results were all real and NS fears clearing too many people. This is what we believe if NS is scum, that
{chkballin, Vinegar, Celebloki, Reck} is ALL town. Which'd narrow down the lynch pool to a guaranteed win, pretty much, limiting the names for scum to be
{DGB, bv,
Peregrine
, Amrun}. Between our vig and a lynch, we'd have them all dead soon enough.
We will be pursuing this line of thought, to try and narrow it down to NS and two from the above.
...Unfortunately, we find it more likely that NS's claim IS legitimate. Where'd that roleblock go, if not onto NS? It was on us for two nights in a row, so it had to have gone somewhere else. (Theoretically, we suppose it's possible they doc-hunted or decided not to use it on anyone to make NS look better, but both seem less probable than NS being blocked. Sadly.)
Which means one of {Vinegar, chkballin} is scum, one of {Celebloki, Reck} is prob-scum, and there's one more scum loose within {DGB, bv,
Peregrine
, Amrun}.
This scenario is harder for us and will be a LOT more work than the NS-is-scum scenario. But it'll be worth it if the end result is, indeed, a town victory.
And now that we've finally, FINALLY gotten all that setup speculation out of the way, the real work begins. We will be covering as much as the game as we can, in as much detail as possible, to figure out who the scum are.
