Newbie 1138 - Game Over! Town Win!

[Honest Abel]

And then you put four of them in #562, doubling them for emphasis, as though you thought maybe cavjj hadn't seen your earlier one or something. I guess it could be nothing, but it might be worth looking into what you said in regard to NS and seeing if it fits the picture of you being mafia and knowing he's jailkeeper.

[Honest Abel]

Okay, maybe you just put 100 because you wanted it to span across the entire post.

[DarkClaymore]

DC, if we nolynch and let NS jail me again and there's no kill again, what does that prove? NS could be scum and purposely choose not to kill at night.

If we don't lynch, scum can't win in any way unless he kills at night. I say if there is no NK, then we should lynch you. I think this method will give us clearer picture of NS. If you flip town and the following night NS isn't killed, then it'll automatically put him in a bad situation since it'll appear very unlikely to happen. This will automatically block the possibility of him "automatically winning" with this claim.

On the other hand, if NS is killed this night despite blocking you - then you'll become a confirmed townie next day and we'll have a better chance lynching scum. If we just lynch someone we aren't sure about today, we'll just help scum IMO.

True, we can also lynch someone anyway and

then

let NS block you. But I believe with this setup - the chance scum will decide to not perform NK is higher. Thus it will not be as helpful as what I suggested IMO.

DC, explain how your realization that the mafia would have had to use a code to convey to cavjj that there was a jailkeeper would have had any bearing on the game at hand.

As it is, I suppose it won't help us much as I originally thought. Still, I'm willing to believe NS is the jailer because that's what I expected him to be and because I'm not certain about whatever or not he could read the scum night conversation and give his partner the code. My idea was to clear NS with the code thing in case a jailer dies (as paradoxical as it is since I thought NS might be the said Jailer). I'm not sure how convincing it is in this situation though...

Therefore I wanted to see who aside of me put effort into thinking in a similar direction. To see the mentality of the remaining players.

Unless you can find the code. I actually made a topic on the rolecop a while back and posted in it today. There's some discussion in there about possible codes.

I don't think it'll work... we aren't even sure what post we should check. Finding the code, no matter how simple it is, is very unlikely IMO. I admit, I tried to look for something fishy. There was one thing that caught my attention. But obviously, such speculation are never convincing. In #100 Cav makes a bold "5". In #102 Whilst makes Cav's name bold. True, he does bold the names of the players, but not that often. Also, if I were to count the roles as they are shown on the first post from top - then JK will indeed be 5. (if we see the whole mafia PM as a "1").

[singersigner]

Vote Count 3.3

DarkClaymore (0):
Honest Abel (0):
whilst (1): Honest Abel
dicknose (0):
I Am Innocent (0):
Nobody Special (0):

Not Voting (5): DarkClaymore, whilst, dicknose, I Am Innocent, Nobody Special

With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

Mod Notes:

Deadline for Day Three is September 4th, 2011 at 5pm PST.

[Honest Abel]

There's nothing weird about cavjj bolding the 5, and he wouldn't be the one giving the code anyway. His partner would.

Anyway, I'm down with the NS jailing me again tonight plan. Let's lynch whilst.

[Honest Abel]

How's this for a code? If we were to assign each town role a number, it would probably be something like this: townie: 1; cop: 2; doc: 3; jailkeeper: 4. In whilst's first two posts of the day, he stresses the number four in weird, unnatural ways:

You kill someone who is going to put "2 and 2 together" and figure you out.

Why would he put "2 and 2 together" in quotes like that? Because he wanted to point out the number 4.

Right, just thought that over. I guess you're saying:

1. the mafia makes you, cavjj, look bad
2. the town ends up lynching cavjj
3. In the end its two townies dead, cavjj and scumhunter
4. It is also Night 2, mafia gets another kill

I don't know. I still think the mafia would lynch someone helpful, than try to frame another player.

Above, in his next post, he makes it explicit in another way just to make sure cavjj knows.

[I Am Innocent]

so who didn't want a shorter night?

I give up, who do you think? And why?

Just from reading cavjj's ISO:

• IAI is 99% town
• dicknose is probably town
• If whilst isn't scum, DC is
• No reads at all on NS from the cavjj ISO; he hardly talks about or interacts with NS, except at one point he admits reading up on Wickedestjr, saying that he was just forced to claim in one game and lynched in another. Hmm.

As it is, I say we lynch whilst and then DC or NS. I will have to look more at the patterns I noticed with cavjj's aggression/compliance with certain players.

Nobody should have someone else at 99% town. 100%, yes based on power role information. But 99% is very dangerous, even with a mislynch to spare.

Also, do not like the lining up lynches. We need to come up with a consensus for the most likely scum, and hope we get it right. If we're wrong, we better do a better job D4.

He uses "fair enough" and "fair point" several times to me, which I guess means it's something he does with people who are, to him, obvious townies or people he wishes to look townie. He says "to be fair" to usually to make a negative point to someone, but sometimes to make a reinforcement of someone's idea.

Interesting. I will keep this in mind when I start my reread.

Okay so... the jailer didn't die

. Rather, no one died.

As much as, in a way, it's a good thing, it has it's disadvantages as Abel stated

. I was looking forward learning something new.

Guess I'll have to reread as well

. Was waiting until N2's death is revealed but... it was pointless...

BTW, I have a question to everyone. Assuming a jailer were to be killed on N2, what would be your conclusions from that?

I think there is one interesting aspect to that but I'd like to hear what others think about it first.

Why are you so confident that we have a jailer at this point?

As for your last question, I already read ahead so I think I understand where you are going with this. Not sure I agree, otherwise the jailer would be dead in my opinion unless the jailer jailed the scum, in essence protecting himself.

I was waiting specifically to see how Honest Abel would react to the lack of nightkill before I posted.

I will give you my results.

I jailkept Honest Abel last night.

There are two possibilities:

1) Abelscum and

2) Abeltown.

I'm personally leaning Abelscum, for reasons that I will expand on after some discussion. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts (

especially

Abel's).

Umm, substitute any player's name in 1 & 2 and the statement is still true.

I personally hate this claim, because I think you may be forgetting that a Doctor could also be out there. Despite hating it, it is likely legit. Scum NS has no reason to fake claim at this point in the game.

[Honest Abel]

99% percent means that I'm willing to ignore you for the rest of the game because of cavjj's interaction with you, but I'm leaving 1% room to spare for being completely fooled. Everyone else left in the game is a bigger fish to fry than you, IAI. You're an anchovy right now.

I think we're agreeing that NS is truly jailkeeper at this point. Let's move on.

[Honest Abel]

I guess that makes NS an anchovy, too.

[Bricktoes]

Also, usually, when I survive the night with a nokill, I say that it's because I was targeted by the mafia and a protection.

except in our last game when you were kept alive for being clueless protown and in your game on here where you were scum. no dice.

[I Am Innocent]

I'm personally leaning Abelscum, for reasons that I will expand on after some discussion. I'd like to hear everyone's thoughts (

especially

Abel's).

Hmm... I have to admit I'm also leaning toward Abel being scum. I has been doing for a while. And wow... if you are really Jailerkeeper then my deduction was correct. I assumed if mafia knew the jailer, it'd be the IC. Because he'd be the first one I'd investigate as scum.

As for this specific situation, I'd say aiming at Abel isn't the smartest move during the night. Whatever scum did or didn't know if there are protective roles, a sole scum should try and

kill

someone. Even if the target isn't the most protown player there is. If we are dealing with an awfully tricky scum who knew there is a jailer, he could choose to not kill and then frame whoever the jailer blocked. But I'm not sure about this...

So you think maybe Scum Abel investigated NS N1, then tried to kill him N2 but was beat to the punch by the JK? Interesting theory.

Night One I (or, specifically, Wickedest) jailed DC.

So if DC was the role cop, he would not have gotten his investigation in N1. Interesting.

But then again, if I were mafia, I wouldn't have made cavjj perform the kill knowing that he'd be the subject of suspicion for the D1 quickhammer. I would say that greatly decreases the odds that DC is scum.

I'm not so sure. Remember, the living scum is the role cop. If the role cop performed the kill N1, they'd be risking putting all their eggs in 1 basket. One way to hedge is to each take on a responsibility.

My initial thinking was that if a Jailer dies (who I hoped isn't NS, even though I guessed chances are high he is) then indeed they used a code.

Can you explain this sentence more? What you mean by it?

A suggestion: How about ending this day with no lynch and letting NS jail Abel again? If no one dies again, then Abel most likely scum. I doubt scum will overlook the opportunity to kill the jailer. Of course, in exchange this will make Abel confirmed townie next day, but he can always be killed the next night. So I believe if Abel isn't scum, the Jailer will be killed. While scum can choose to not kill in order to frame Abel, it's debatable how likely that is and whatever this is the best move for scum or not. I believe killing a powerful PR should take priority to framing a townie who can be killed latter anyway.

Terrible idea. I will not explain why for fear of helping our remaining scum strategize.

Here's the deal with the claim gambit: If scum-NS claims jailkeeper and thereis a real jailkeeper, the counterclaim means that we simply lynch both of them and one of them will be scum, meaning instant town win; If scum-NS claims jailkeeper and there isn't a real jailkeeper, it's pretty much instantly a win for him because nobody would suspect him of claiming under such risky circumstances. We just have to decide whether NS is a gambling man or not.

Yes, if there is a JK out there, they should have counter claimed already. (FTR, I am not a JailKeeper.)

There's nothing weird about cavjj bolding the 5, and he wouldn't be the one giving the code anyway. His partner would.

Anyway, I'm down with the NS jailing me again tonight plan. Let's lynch whilst.

I am not sure NS should say who he is jailing. If he is the JK, I'd be more comfortable with him playing cat and mouse with the scum rather than allowing the scum to know our plans and how best to react to them.

You're an anchovy right now.

I'm trying to figure out if this is a compliment or insult...

*********************

My summary prior to my reread:

dicknose was my #1 suspect once cavjj outted himself. He has done very little since cavjj outted himself, almost like he has felt the tides turn. I'm going to try my darnedest to keep an open mind during my reread tho...

Other thoughts:

cavjj seemed to hint that he knew a JK was out there, but in post 797 he says "Unfortunately, said jailkeeper isn't here to corroborate my story."

But Post 796 (4 minutes earlier) was made by Nobody Special, our claimed JK. So either way, it appears cavjj was lying. So I will not be paying attention to the mystery code/hints that some think are out there as I do my reread.

[I Am Innocent]

Also, usually, when I survive the night with a nokill, I say that it's because I was targeted by the mafia and a protection.

except in our last game when you were kept alive for being clueless protown and in your game on here where you were scum. no dice.

Who do you think is cavjj's teammate and why?

[DarkClaymore]

Why are you so confident that we have a jailer at this point?

I was hoping Cav's claim wasn't full BS. So I tried assuming we have a Jailer, which is found by the mafia, and see what I can conclude from his death. This sadly didn't work as no one died, but I still wanted to ask what others would have concluded. And I didn't say I think we have a Jailer at that point anyway.

Can you explain this sentence more? What you mean by it?

Cav claimed he found the Jailer. Yet he flipped goon. So only his partner could have known who is the Jailer during the day. Were the Jailer to die during N2, this would lead to the conclusion they somehow communicated in the thread under our noses. Though I don't know whatever it's really the case the way things stand now.






If we aren't going to do "no lynch", then this might turn into a weird situation. Assuming Abel is scum, if NS blocks him every night then no one'll die at night. However then, during the day, Abel can claim scum tried to frame him and refused to NK. Then he might convince us to do another mislynch and perhaps another. He could just win like this.

Of course, we could just lynch Whilst, or whoever, today and then lynch Abel tomorrow in case there's no NK again. But I think we are just helping the mafia like this as he might

really

give up on NK for the sake of lynching Abel on the following day. If anything, I'd suggest Abel's lynch first then. I still think no lynch is better as losing Abel just like that can be pretty bad if he's town. But...

[whilst]

so who didn't want a shorter night?

I give up, who do you think? And why?

Isn't it just the people with night actions who control how long the night is?

[Honest Abel]

cavjj seemed to hint that he knew a JK was out there, but in post 797 he says "Unfortunately, said jailkeeper isn't here to corroborate my story."

But Post 796 (4 minutes earlier) was made by Nobody Special, our claimed JK. So either way, it appears cavjj was lying. So I will not be paying attention to the mystery code/hints that some think are out there as I do my reread.

Yes, good work. I looked at this again at some point while D2 was still ongoing and deduced that the only person he could have meant "not present" was you, IAI. Further enhancing the idea that cavjj was just spewing nonsense. It just seems really odd that he would make such a claim that would fall apart so fast.

I will not allow a lynch of me unless you present me with some infallible plan that proves how lynching me would win the game for town. As far as I'm concerned, NS may have just dashed our chances of winning the game by claiming so early. He could have tested his own theory in the privacy of his own unknown role. Casting suspicion on me when it's pretty clear I was going to be the focal point of N2 anyway was a silly move, and now we're going to have one less power role if he doesn't survive the night.

[Bricktoes]

dicknose was my #1 suspect once cavjj outted himself. He has done very little since cavjj outted himself, almost like he has felt the tides turn. I'm going to try my darnedest to keep an open mind during my reread tho...

except i've been posting less since long before that due to work. i'm sure you have far better reasons against me.

Fixed quote tags. <3
~singer

[Bricktoes]

i'll answer questions and be more detailed either tonight or in the morning.

[Honest Abel]

so who didn't want a shorter night?

I give up, who do you think? And why?

Isn't it just the people with night actions who control how long the night is?

Mod made it pretty clear that we could end the night early by PMing her.

[whilst]

Oh well, my bad.

I'm still waiting on NS's case against Abel. I'm trying to work out NS's claim in my head, if there's a way to disprove it. The only thing I can think of (at the moment) is a counter-claim, or two power role claims. In the latter case we'd have even a bigger problem.

[DarkClaymore]

I will not allow a lynch of me unless you present me with some infallible plan that proves how lynching me would win the game for town.

All I'm saying is that not lynching you will bring about a big problem to the town in case NKs won't occur while you are blocked. We'll never have a way to know whatever scum decided to not kill on purpose or whatever you, as scum, were blocked. If we lynch a townie today, this will put more suspicion on you for the following day, yet will also become a good excuse for you to say "scum tries to frame me and decided to not conduct NK".

That's why I think rather than living in phobia, we should either lynch you or possibly sacrifice the Jailer at night with no lynch - but in exchange make you a confirmed townie for at least one day. True, we can lynch Whilst first. But question is what is more helpful to the town. If Whilst flips town, you'll most likely be jailed again. What if there's no NK again? What should we do then? Should we lynch you? We can't know and we are back to square one. You'll yet again become a suspect, yet not enough to become automatic lynch target.

On the other hand, if we lynch you and you flip town - then at least the Jailer will have a better chance to Jail scum during the night because there will no longer be any need to Jail you in order to see whatever NK happens. Also, we might get a clearer read on NS from the whole thing and possibly block his opportunity to easily win with the claim if he's scum.

[Honest Abel]

Jailkeeper is dead tonight no matter what, unless the scum is trying to play at a really weird angle that probably won't turn out well. It's my belief that the scum was going for the obvious promafia choice of killing me at night and was blocked. He didn't just nokill to mess with our heads. He will be promptly back on the right path of things unless there is a doctor protecting NS as he should be.

DC, you are trying to plan how the entire rest of the game is going to pan out based on someone else's role. There is no strategy you can plan right now that will guarantee a town win. The sooner you get over that and return to scumhunting, the better for town. In fact, a lot of your reasoning seems pointedly antitown:

On the other hand, if we lynch you and you flip town - then at least the Jailer will have a better chance to Jail scum during the night because there will no longer be any need to Jail you in order to see whatever NK happens.

This is just a thinly disguised attempt at town-damning strategy. NS will have a better chance jailing scum in the night no matter who is killed because the pool will be smaller.

Also, we might get a clearer read on NS from the whole thing and possibly block his opportunity to easily win with the claim if he's scum.

There's almost no possibility that he's scum, unless he's exploiting some kind of mind game we're not considering by claiming a role that could have been easily counterclaimed.

You are perpetually behind the times as far as thread developments go. And you are even more gung-ho about NS's claim and suspicion of Abel-scum than he is. It's ludicrous that you are using his "probably scum" statement to build this whole "strategy" to get my lynched, speaking as if it's the only course of action. If whilst weren't acting so aloof and ignorant of the whole mess (posts once about something irrelevant to the big issue here), which looks rather scummy, I would definitely change my vote to you. You've acted this way the whole game and you're only digging yourself deeper in. Now that the scumfield has been whittled down to two (in my eyes), you are trying desperately to get an obvious townie lynched just so that we can't basically instawin by lynching you and whilst. You're hoping for a scenario in which we have to choose between you two.

[Honest Abel]

Another thing against whilst is that he's used to playing mafia with me on another site where I am basically the only competent player and I almost always get investigated, protected, and/or killed on the first night. So knowing whilst's experience of me, I think he was more likely to target me N2 as solo-scum than any other player.

[Honest Abel]

I still cannot figure out why NS wouldn't just keep his mouth shut and jail me again N3 to figure out if I'm scum or not. Mafia would have to be pretty stupid to go after me twice in a row after being blocked.

[DarkClaymore]

This is just a thinly disguised attempt at town-damning strategy. NS will have a better chance jailing scum in the night no matter who is killed because the pool will be smaller.

But he'll most likely try blocking you again in order to check if someone NKed. As long as you live today, you'll probably end up as his target. So no, if you aren't scum then his chances to block scum won't increase even one bit no matter how many other players we lynch. Of course, that depends on how much he is willing to jail you again in the first place.

you are trying desperately to get an obvious townie lynched

Obvious townie? How so? Because you are somewhat protown? BS. I already said that this only makes you more scummy in my eyes. This is a great scum strategy which I have seen numerous times before. The most protown players I have ever seen ended up being scum in most cases.

You are basically the most dangerous player in this game to be the remaining scum. That's why if we have a chance to either clear you or conclude something from your death - we should do one of those while we have the chance.

You said it yourself:

Jailkeeper is dead tonight no matter what

If he's going to die anyway, why not make you a confirmed townie along the road? Atm we have 0 confirmed townies, as much as I personally willing to believe to NS's claim. The more we mislynch just for the sake of lynching, the greater chances are that scum will win. Why not come back and find the scum after we have two more confirmed townies? I don't think we have enough on Whilst as it is. You were the one who said "that's how he always plays". While he is one of my top two suspects, the same goes for you. Yet only one is scum. And right now I'd personally prefer your lynch first unless we find a way to clear you.

You're hoping for a scenario in which we have to choose between you two.

And you for a scenario in which there's 0% chance someone will want to lynch you. As protown as it's scummy.

[Honest Abel]

Mislynchnig for the sake of lynching is what you'd be doing to me. You have no scumreads on me other than the fact that the jailkeeper said he was leaning toward me being scum more than being town, yet you want to lynch me? Your whole case reeks of opportunism. You should be wanting to lynch people you think are scum, not defaulting to/relying on calculated strategies that won't offer proof either way. That is supremely scummy. I am absolutely ready to lynch you or whilst depending on whose lynch has greater support at the moment.