Nobody Special wrote:I believe that Abel's reactions to what's happened are incriminating; he is trying desperately not to be lynched, while if you notice several other people are actually OFFERING THEMSELVES UP for sacrifice.
...
At this point, based mostly on Abel's reactions lately, I'm willing to lynch him and try to (if necessary -- which I don't think it will be) jail the proper player tonight.
So you had no reasoning to support him being scum at the time you declared him scum?
No. More of a gut feel. I took a chance, jailed him, now we have the results.
Why did you say you did?
Okay, yes, I did call it reasoning. But since it was more of a gut feeling and a bit of a gamble, it's not really classical "reasoning" -- if that makes sense.
DarkClaymore wrote:Of course, we could just lynch Whilst, or whoever, today and then lynch Abel tomorrow in case there's no NK again.
Are you so certain that Honest is scum? Cause if not, this concerns me verily "we could just lynch Whilst, or whoever".
I Am Innocent wrote:Who do you think is cavjj's teammate and why?
dicknose wrote:i'll answer questions and be more detailed either tonight or in the morning.
Still waiting.
Honest Abel wrote:There is no strategy you can plan right now that will guarantee a town win. The sooner you get over that and return to scumhunting, the better for town.
QFT (esp when you substitute "we" for "you" above)
Honest Abel wrote:A single mislynch at this point means a D4 in which you and whilst are both alive, meaning it will be a 50/50 shot that mafia wins. Even if you are town, you should be able to see that leaving one of you alive severely lessens the chance of a town win. One of you is town and just playing poorly. One of you needs to admit that and lynch the other or die for the cause.
Why do you think whilst is cavjj's teammate?
DarkClaymore wrote:I could join Whilst's wagon I suppose, but before then I'd like to see what others have to contribute.
Same question to you DC. And why are you waiting to see what others have to contribute?
Honest Abel wrote:Yes, at least one, and 2/3 odds for another.
Theoretically it is half. (1/2 the scenarios have a VT and 1 power role, the other 1/2 scenarios have 2 power roles).
Same question to you DC. And why are you waiting to see what others have to contribute?
I was waiting to see:
1) How many are willing to lynch Abel. I thought it might be impossible today, but maybe I was wrong.
2) Whatever someone want to claim or point out something good which will change my mind.
As for who is Cav's partner. I don't know from this specific angle as I didn't really put much effort into finding something against players based on "interactions" with Cav. And I don't think I'll find much even if I search. Though, I did at least make sure my prime suspects fit to be Cav's partner.
Whilst was pushing Cav's wagon all along. So he might fit being his partner assuming he thought Cav won't really be lynched. Or, if Cav is really lynched then he could get some town points. Abel as accusing Cav a lot at first, yet then agreed with how mafia might have used Cav, despite how initially he denied such theory. So he also fits. Even more I'd say.
I'm aware. I wanted to hear what NS had to say first.
I don't think much has changed in my reads. I tried reading the thread with my top suspects as either Abel or Nobody, but there's a few logical problems with seeing them as scum based only on NS's claim. The most I can say is that Abel looks a lot scummier for leading a wagon on Cav and then leading the wagon away once cav neared a lynch.
dicknose wrote:I don't think much has changed in my reads. I tried reading the thread with my top suspects as either Abel or Nobody, but there's a few logical problems with seeing them as scum based only on NS's claim. The most I can say is that Abel looks a lot scummier for leading a wagon on Cav and then leading the wagon away once cav neared a lynch.
You're forgetting that he did the same thing with IAI -- which is why my 'idea/plan' gives him the benefit of the doubt.
NS
, I still need a response from you. Who will you be jailing tonight, if we lynch Abel today?
dicknose wrote:I haven't reached where switches wagons in my reread. Circumstances may have been different.
I'd like Darky to go first.
Um, all right. What if I go first, and you go second? Does it matter if DC goes third?
Rest of the town:
Also, we'll have to consider something else: If we ask a claim from Abel (if we put him at L-1), and he claims doc/cop, then we might want to consider asking someone else to come forth with their own claim (if the power role exists). In that scenario, we'd have three power role claims, and obviously one scum in the mix (Abel, NS, third claim).
I'm tired of wrapping my mind around your various ineffectual plans. whilst, you quoted my question about how you're missing the fact that mafia still get to kill at night and how it makes your plan useless, but you started talking about something completely unrelated. Just give it up.
My top two suspects, whilst and DC, both did everything in their power to cast confusing and anti-town plans into the mix and distract us from a clear goal.
IAI, my reasons why whilst is at the top of my list after reading cavjj's ISO will come tonight, and I'll explain why DC is in second place as well. I have to make dinner for my girlfriend right now because she isn't feeling well. However, since I've said that I would make a case on whilst three times now, I should probably show some evidence that I'm not just full of hot air, which is why I'm going to share my cavjj ISO notes, completely unedited and unexplained. I will expound on everything later, I promise.
"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."
dicknose, I would have nightkilled IAI, no question. I think it's pretty clear that cavjj wouldn't bus his partner as hard as he bussed IAI. And given cavjj's record with L-1s and hammers, it's just obvious that it's how he treats townies. I'm surprised nobody else saw that, and it's making me think I'm the only one who RTFT'd after D2. IAI is the towniest right now.
"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."
Honest Abel wrote:Yes, at least one, and 2/3 odds for another.
Theoretically it is half. (1/2 the scenarios have a VT and 1 power role, the other 1/2 scenarios have 2 power roles).
But if we accept that there is one specific power role (which is my assumption, as I know which power role I am), there are then three remaining setups possible, only one of which contains a VT. So, from where I sit, there is a 67% chance of another power role.
whilst wrote:
dicknose wrote:I haven't reached where switches wagons in my reread. Circumstances may have been different.
I'd like Darky to go first.
Um, all right. What if I go first, and you go second? Does it matter if DC goes third?
Rest of the town:
Also, we'll have to consider something else: If we ask a claim from Abel (if we put him at L-1), and he claims doc/cop, then we might want to consider asking someone else to come forth with their own claim (if the power role exists). In that scenario, we'd have three power role claims, and obviously one scum in the mix (Abel, NS, third claim).
You seem to be assuming that Abel is town. Why?
I would've NKed IAI last night. If I were scum, which I'm not.
dicknose wrote:Everybody, who would you have nightkilled last night?
You.
I mean, seriously.
If I knew NS is the Jailer then sure I'd kill NS.
However, if I assume I didn't know then:
Me and Whilst should be out of question as we are the scummiest by the end of D2.
Abel and NS could be protected and aren't safe bets.
This leaves IAI and Dicknose. Now, my impression during D2 was that: IAI is a SE who appears rather scummy, Dicknose is a player who many can't exactly say whatever he is scummy or not.
I most likely would have chosen Dicknose in order to have a safe night kill, as well as get rid of a player who doesn't seem like a very likely lynch target.
Honest Abel wrote:I'm tired of wrapping my mind around your various ineffectual plans. whilst, you quoted my question about how you're missing the fact that mafia still get to kill at night and how it makes your plan useless, but you started talking about something completely unrelated. Just give it up.
You missed the point. If NS blocks you, then there is no mafia night kill.
dicknose wrote:I haven't reached where switches wagons in my reread. Circumstances may have been different.
I'd like Darky to go first.
Um, all right. What if I go first, and you go second? Does it matter if DC goes third?
Rest of the town:
Also, we'll have to consider something else: If we ask a claim from Abel (if we put him at L-1), and he claims doc/cop, then we might want to consider asking someone else to come forth with their own claim (if the power role exists). In that scenario, we'd have three power role claims, and obviously one scum in the mix (Abel, NS, third claim).
You seem to be assuming that Abel is town. Why?
Because of his D2 "discussion" creating actions, and his repealed vote on IAI. I feel as if IAI would have eventually been lynched.
Now, can you tell me who you'll be jailing tonight?
dicknose wrote:Everybody, who would you have nightkilled last night?
Basing it off of the "flips" conversation, I would've picked one of the targets that NS and Abel highlighted. Abel has been 'leading' discussions, so I would assume that he'd do the same thing during D3 and lynch the wrong person. For an example (reference), I would've lynched IAI. Then NS and Abel would've probably gone after DC. A successful night kill would've brought the population to 5, making 3 the majority vote. NS + Abel, would've made it L-1 on DC -- in time, he'd be lynched.
whilst wrote:You missed the point. If NS blocks you, then there is no mafia night kill.
You missed the point. I'm not mafia, so I'm not going to agree to a flawed plan where mafia gets to kill whoever they want while you sit around daydreaming about three lynches.
whilst, why do you want to know who NS will protect?
"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."
Here's what makes me think whilst is scum based on cavjj's iso:
So all that, combined with the fact that whilst's big, unending suspicion on cavjj with no excuse other than "his reasoning was a little off" strikes me as quite a strange relationship, especially when you consider that whilst is the only one who actually detailed cavjj's reasoning and sympathized with it in #103.
All that said, I get a lot of strange resonance between cavjj and DC as well. Such as the fact that cavjj spent all of his interaction with DC simply ridiculing him (he doesn't really ridicule anyone else like he does DC, and he doesn't really cast suspicion on DC, either, when he does it), and then DC just suddenly disappears off of his radar when IAI takes his place in the #1 slot.
I could detail my thoughts on the cavjj/DC connection as well, but I'm pooped for tonight. If anyone wants to hear more, let me know.
"He had decided to live forever or die in the attempt."
