Flash mafia 3 (town wins)

[Ellibereth]

lolporoonlyonewholost
gg
re?

[Porochaz]

I hate being godfather in triplevotinglynchervangekill mafia.

[mastin2]

Oh, right. This game. Heh. Thanks for the reminder. Had completely forgotten about it.

Not really surprising, considering how I only came in on request and have been feeling quite apathetic recently. (Not to mention, being occupied elsewhere with said obligation being a huge priority to me.) But, hey. A prod has sparked my motivation elsewhere; it'll probably spark my motivation here as well.

Anyway, this game's not exactly on the top of my priority list. I suddenly have less work to do than I thought I would, but I still have to do work elsewhere for a while. Be back soon.

[VP Baltar]

just claim now. save us the trouble.

[shaft.ed]

you can't even fake claim while youre here?

[Llamarble]

I find 'forgetting completely' about a game a hard thing to believe.

[Llamarble]

Hrmph, Tajoslot was on both scumlynches. Less happy now.

[VP Baltar]

Step 1) look at how Amrun was voting all game
Step 2) Stop believing scum wouldn't buss the shit out of their buddies when things are going badly

[shaft.ed]

we can still lynch AGOTI if you dont want to put mastin out of his misery

[mastin2]

Turns out I have less work to do than I thought I do. Will be getting to you momentarily.

[shaft.ed]

lies

[farside22]

Turns out I have less work to do than I thought I do. Will be getting to you momentarily.

zzzzzzzzzzzzz

[mastin2]

Not finished reading, yet. But from what I've seen...

Fate <--Obv-town.
VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Mastin2 (who replaced PopularTajo) <--Also suffering replacement syndrome.
Springlullaby (who replaced Ythill) <--Yet another suffering from replacement syndrome.
Porochaz
Farside
shaft.ed (who replaced crypto) <--Pretty much the only person who isn't suffering from replacement syndrome.
a girl on the internet <--I read one of {Parabollocks, Girl} as being scum. Parabollocks (Zoraster) flipped scum. Therefore, Girl is town.
Regfan


What is Replacement Syndrome?
Simple, really. DGB might not have been to the level of confirmed-town, but nobody was really suspicious of DGB's slot until VPB came in. And it's not hard to see why; DGB was a weak town-read of mine; VPB is a strong scumread of mine, since he's not playing the way I remember town-VPB to be playing. Put bluntly, VPB blew all the town-cred DGB had.

Ythill was a strong town-read of mine, and pretty much everyone else as well. Spring came in and has essentially squandered all of that built up town-cred.

Then there's me. Most people called Tajo town. Then I came in. And I've wasted all that town-cred.

Shaft.ed's the only one who seems to have been spared; Crypto was obv-town, and while shaft.ed isn't as GOOD as crypto was, he at least still looks like town.

Now, to narrow down my reads a little bit.

VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Springlullaby (who replaced Ythill) <--Yet another suffering from replacement syndrome.
Porochaz
Farside
Regfan <--Town. Regfan's play seemed town to me when I did my read.

Spring I'm leaning town on. While she has an extreme lack of activity, when she does come in, her insight looks good.

VPBaltar (who replaced DrippingGoofball) <--Suffering Replacement syndrome.
Ellibereth
Llamarble
Porochaz
Farside


Process of elimination, I feel like our scum are within these five names. I just did the math, and I really can't see us losing.

Five suspects.

Eleven alive.

Mislynch today,
Scum get a kill in,
Nine alive, four suspects.
Mislynch tomorrow, scum get a kill in,
Seven alive, three suspects.
Mislynch the day after, scum get a kill in.
Five alive, and only two suspects.
(Mis)lynch the next day, scum get a kill in.
Three alive, only one suspect.

That's assuming that we mislynch, AND assuming the scum get their kills in, AND assuming we don't get role-based information to implicate/clear further names within. In other words, even in the worst case scenario, this is a town win.


That said...I said it before, and I'll say it again. Farside looks like scum to me. One of {farside, Regfan} heavily looks like scum. Observe Parabollocks not approving, but later on that same page, voting for farside, anyway. I don't see her claim as being that pro-town, and easily could see it as scum.

I'll give more after I respond to others. (Offense always comes before defense.
Always.)

[Llamarble]

Farside & Reg are town unless SERIOUS additional town power gets claimed.
Explain your thought process on AGOTI
I don't think Mastin's trying very hard.
That 'lets lynch these 5 people who aren't me several of which are clearly town' plan is very 'what is the remote possible way I can win from this situation.'

Poro's clear unless intentional nokill happened. Which I am ruling out a lot less than normal.

[Llamarble]

Also Mastin being gone forever provides an explanation for last night's nokill.

Only thing making me uncomfortable is replace in-> hammer scumbuddy, but then again he didn't list Zoro as someone he thought was scum and Zorolynch was inevitable.

CONFIRM VOTE: MASTIN

[farside22]

The link Mastin provided lead me to a tiger that said the page was eaten.
Never said that my role would look pro-town.
No claim from Mastin who is at L-1 and was asked to claim.

-I read one of {Parabollocks, Girl} as being scum. Parabollocks (Zoraster) flipped scum. Therefore, Girl is town.

This makes no sense and gives no reasoning.

[Regfan]

Mastin, just a few questions;

1. If you're reading VP Baltar as a strong scum-read and are near certain that it's impossible to lose this game why haven't you placed a vote on him?

2. What makes you strongly believe that one of Farside and me are mafia? Further, if you're certain enough that I'm town to remove me from the suspect pool why aren't you convinced that Farside is scum?

3. I have Porochaz no visting last night, do you still think he's potential or likely mafia now?

4. Where have you read up to and why haven't you claimed yet?

[Fate]

Only scum call Fate obvtown

CONFIRM VOTE: MASTIN

[shaft.ed]

No claim from Mastin who is at L-1 and was asked to claim.

If you pretend there is no pressure on you it might just go away

So we lynching mastin yet?

[VP Baltar]

Hammer:Mastin2

Time to move this along cause that was the worst 'Imma stall' post I've seen in a long time.

[mastin2]

Dang it. I'm not finished, yet.

Why I think Farside is scum:

Simple, really.

Redundancy.

We have a tracker; that takes care of an investigation-type role.
We have a doctor; that's painfully obvious by the continuous lack of kills. That's a protective role.

A town roleblocker, however, is ALSO a protective role. Heck, they're even listed as the first two roles up there! As in, the two most common (at the time, presumably), most important roles of them all! Why include both?

While admittedly a Janitor is a strong role, for Farside to be town, the scum'd either need a strong scum power role, or two additional scum. Her presence as town completely overpowers the scum, overwhelms them in all the scenarios I come up with.

Because two protective roles pack a heck of a punch. Two protective roles can stop kills non-stop. Two protective roles can shut the scum down unless they have something to counter the protective roles.

...Yet obviously, they don't. Hence, Farside's far more likely to be scum. The way she claimed was about as scummy as you can go about it. Her play has been quite poor, overall, ringing multiple scumtells. She was strongly tied to Parabollocks, as I said before. (Heck, when I came in yesterday, I said that "Farside looks like scum, with either Girl or Parabollocks.")

Interaction, scum. Tone, scum. Setup, scum. And her claimed targets don't look solid to me, either. So, Motive, scum.

I CAN see her as town. I just quite frankly don't think she is.

Note Parabollock's 294, isolation #6: link1

This is the post I tried to link to before. (Blasted Quicktopics really mess up links. >_<)

And then in 299, isolation #11, link 2
He votes for Farside. Yay, unexplained turnaround! This reeks of defending-then-bussing.

-Fate: Why did you want to avoid expressing a clear stance on Regfan?

AGOTI: Why did you vote for farside, at the time you did? Please explain.

-Parabollocks: Who are your actual suspects?your townreads?

This is MORE evidence (as if it wasn't obvious enough already) that Girl is town. "Scumbuddy and two townies", played as straight as an arrow.

Current scumreads are Farside and {Parabollocks, Girl}. Parabollocks (and therefore replacement) looks more scummy individually, Girl looks more scummy by interactions with farside.

Still holds true. Girl is town.

[mastin2]

It's 4:15 AM. I've been working on this game for the last five dang hours, so I'm sure as heck not going to go down without making sure the scum get lynched. I will NOT let you guys mislynch Girl and/or Regfan, will NOT let my scumreads get away. I'll play beat-the-mod for as long as I can.

[VP Baltar]

...Yet obviously, they don't.

Well...they kind of have actually.

And feel free to continue posting cause it'll be awhile before Kise gets here I'm sure.

[mastin2]

LYNCH ORDER:
Farside22
VPBaltar
Ellibereth
Llamarble.

DON'T YOU DARE STRAY FROM THIS PATH.

[VP Baltar]

If you're the last scum. we may as well quit the charade. Thinking ellibereth is scum is pure lunacy. (but then again, so is saying DGB looked town and I've pissed away her towniness...lol)