Mini 1194: Reverse Mafia [Game Over]

[Packbat]

Deadline is in eight days - estimated countdown (expired on 2011-08-25 07:47:00).

I'll post every day, but malpascp and Pomegranate have confirmed their status by leaving their votes fixed, so there's nothing to be said.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Anyway, why haven't I been revived yet?

Because you're scum.

I beg to differ.

The only reason anybody thinks I'm scum is because of something totally out of my control. The fact that malp voted for me when he got the chance in no way affects my scumminess. Any independent analisys of me would certainly find that I'm clearly the best revive.

[Packbat]

Anyway, why haven't I been revived yet?

Because you're scum.

I beg to differ.

The only reason anybody thinks I'm scum is because of something totally out of my control. The fact that malp voted for me when he got the chance in no way affects my scumminess. Any independent analisys of me would certainly find that I'm clearly the best revive.

That's because you're an extremely good scum player.

[Packbat]

IceGuy:

you are the town player most likely to survive to tomorrow. If Bub Bidderskins is revived and ToastyToast is shot, are you willing to vote for bobsnox?

[Packbat]

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

[IceGuy]

The only reason anybody thinks I'm scum is because of

my obvious fakeclaim

.

FTFY

IceGuy:

you are the town player most likely to survive to tomorrow. If Bub Bidderskins is revived and ToastyToast is shot, are you willing to vote for bobsnox?

I'm still suspicious of bobsnox, for two reasons:
1. I don't doubt his Purger claim. I just fail to see why this is necessarily a

town

power role.
2. If he is town, I'm not convinced of him being calm enough to be not trigger-happy and shoot a town player, thus eliminating one of our win conditions.

Taking into account my current reads, I'd vote him over malpascp, but I'd prefer all remaining three limbo players over him. Especially since I hope one of them is an unclaimed town vig and can get rid of Pom and Bub.

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

What about AntB, MrTrow or StrangerCoug?

[ToastyToast]

revive SC or MrTrow today. Revive the bob 2morrow. malpascp not doing the townie thing and letting ice control his vote = SCUMZ4LIFE

[Packbat]

Run the numbers, IceGuy. Which is more probable:

(A) That one of AntB, MrTrow, and StrangerCoug is a town vig

and

that we manage to pick one who is a town vig completely randomly right now?

(B) That bobsnox is honestly a town Purger?

I'd say that there's better than one-in-three odds that bobsnox is genuine right off the bat.

[IceGuy]

I'd say that there's better than one-in-three odds that bobsnox is genuine right off the bat.

It's not just about the odds that he is genuine, it's what happens when he misfires. If he misfires, we've lost. We are never going to get more than three townies alive at the same time as long as scum can kill, and unless there are only six townies or less, which is VERY unlikely, this means we can't satisfy the "half of the town players alive" win condition.

And since Bub and Pom are pretty much confirmed scum but malpascp is only very likely scum, I'm inclined to err on the side of caution.

[AntB]

revive should have happened by now, this day has stalled beyond rescue methinks...

I also think scum hold enough of the votes to force a scum revive and/or win outright tomorrow.

[Packbat]

And since Bub and Pom are pretty much confirmed scum but malpascp is only very likely scum, I'm inclined to err on the side of caution.

If malpascp were town, malpascp would notice that Pomegranate was scum. If any of the first three revived was the vote-stealer, then they would have stolen the vote and won immediately (if they were scum) or not stolen the vote until there was likely scum in the town (if they were town and the ability was one-shot) or stolen the vote of the most likely scumbag every day (if they were town and the ability was unlimited). And ToastyToast is the Jinxer, so he can't be the vote-stealer.

Given this, if malpascp were town, malpascp would have unvoted.

[IceGuy]

If malpascp were town, malpascp would notice that Pomegranate was scum. If any of the first three revived was the vote-stealer, then they would have stolen the vote and won immediately (if they were scum) or not stolen the vote until there was likely scum in the town (if they were town and the ability was one-shot) or stolen the vote of the most likely scumbag every day (if they were town and the ability was unlimited). And ToastyToast is the Jinxer, so he can't be the vote-stealer.

Given this, if malpascp were town, malpascp would have unvoted.

It's (almost) confirmed the vote-stealing power is a scum power, since it wasn't claimed. It likely rests with Pomegranate. I assume you can either give the vote not to yourself or only to a player in limbo, so she couldn't give the vote to herself. Now malpascp has already claimed he wanted to revive Bub. There are two possibilities, since a Pom flip as "Scum Vote Stealer" or whatever would immediately make malpascp suspicious:
- malpascp is scum and prepared in advance so he doesn't have to explain why he's suddenly voting Bub.
- malpascp is town, thinks Bub is also town for some reason and was selected by Pom as an "useful idiot".

[MrTrow]

Could either of you do/say something game-related?

I've already said what needs to be said.

Unfortunately, malpascp has my vote, put it on Bub and went on V/LA, so we can't continue.

Sorry for the confusion: the 2 who i wanted to contribute, were the 2 who seem to be 'just waiting for the deadline' and use my 'parse-error' as an excuse to do just that. : Bub/pom need to speak up

When I made post #947, I hadn't thought it through as far as deciding which day to revive which people. At the time, I was not thinking about reviving bobsnox today, so I suppose the answer would have to be D4+.

(surprisingly) good answer (at last )
my problem with #947+aftermath:
It was a response to SC`s 'not yet confortable with a bob-revive', arguments against this make sense ONLY when you`re talking about today.
Yet when i asked about that post #951/2 it consisted mainly out of points that only makes sense if #947 was NOT about today.
I like the response, i don`t like how much time/work it took to get it. (a townie could truthfully answer that instantly, while scum would need time to think of this lie and pack did put effort in buying more time).

Anyways back to the situation at hand:

@Ice:

Spoiler: bobsnox

Both the purger and the jinxer only make sense as a town role in very odd situations.
The medium is exactly that odd situation.
Summoner makes sense to counter the jinxer (why they are both town) or to resurrect 2 PR`s in a single day. (at least: i`m not buying it was intended to 'replace out')
with the purger and the jinxer both being a weapon against the medium and no other usefull/credible PR the purger must be a town role with the purpose of fighting the medium.
This also makes the medium unlikely to be 1-shot.

As for the 'trigger-happy': he should be: It is not a power we want gone, mafia should not be allowed to kill him.
It`s true his shot WILL (effectively) end the game:If he is not to fire tonight, he is not to be ressurected today.

The 2 'reasonably possible scumteams' i see are:

Spoiler: Pom/Bub/(likely)Malp:

Only argument i have to add to this case is:

Pom/Malp: given the practical impossibility of a Toasty/Packbat scumteam i would prefer a decent bub over sc case or an unvote(directly restoring that vote is fine, it`s the draw-advantage i would like to see gone)

Neither responded (no counter argument and no desire to break this advantage): To both: question/request remains.

Spoiler: Pack/AntB/(at least as likely)Malp:

- #806(packbat): 'quickhammer in progress quick help me by voting (hereby defined counterwagon) AntB' (requires less explanation, as it being rushed is explained)
with a vote in the 'quickhammer(tie but still) in progress' (one that can easily switch) AntB could be quickhammered (yes this does require such action to be pretty much game-ending(with medium not 1-shot it would be))
The fact that it was crypto`s vote (the slowest living townie) that was stolen supports this over the 'actual quickhammer'.

- strong spirited townie: this power seems to explain not being killed, while in fact it does nothing (well maybe protect from the purger, but my reasons for believing the purger is town are already known).

- #877(packbat): 'using a logical placeholder' as a scumtell to restore the AntB vote

Of course, if we revive bobs today, he can shoot Bub Bidderskins and TT can jinx malpascp. That would work equally well.

I`d rather see that the other way around (i`m more certain about malp than about bub and a mis-jinx we can handle, a mis-purge we can`t)

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

Great idea: lets wait for scum to pick the day town has to outrun scum.

- #902+(AntB): lets play under the assumption we have a lying townie

- #921(Malp): lets play under the assumption we have a lying townie

- #984(AntB): 'uhm.. lets just give up and let scum win'

I`ll try to limit the 'wall-thing' next time

[Pomegranate]

Hai.

[StrangerCoug]

*snaps fingers* Let's get moving. I have nothing new to add to the table.

[Packbat]

It's (almost) confirmed the vote-stealing power is a scum power, since it wasn't claimed. It likely rests with Pomegranate. I assume you can either give the vote not to yourself or only to a player in limbo, so she couldn't give the vote to herself. Now malpascp has already claimed he wanted to revive Bub. There are two possibilities, since a Pom flip as "Scum Vote Stealer" or whatever would immediately make malpascp suspicious:
- malpascp is scum and prepared in advance so he doesn't have to explain why he's suddenly voting Bub.
- malpascp is town, thinks Bub is also town for some reason and was selected by Pom as an "useful idiot".

And I am telling you, every post that malpascp makes without

unvoting

Bub Bidderskins is further confirmation that the latter cannot be the case. If the day ends and malpascp's vote is still on Bub Bidderskins, malpascp is scum. Period.

Of course, if we revive bobs today, he can shoot Bub Bidderskins and TT can jinx malpascp. That would work equally well.

I`d rather see that the other way around (i`m more certain about malp than about bub and a mis-jinx we can handle, a mis-purge we can`t)

I'm not bobsnox or ToastyToast - if they would prefer to shoot malpascp and jinx Bub Bidderskins that's their prerogative. All they need to do is decide on who does which in advance (and they don't even truly

need

to, as long as bobsnox hits scum - it just works better that way).

(Note that as long as ToastyToast is alive, he can jinx malpascp, meaning that it is only the day after his death that we are

forced

to revive bobsnox.)

Great idea: lets wait for scum to pick the day town has to outrun scum.

Sooner is better, absolutely. If ToastyToast wants to move his vote today I'll follow. I'm just saying that we don't

auto-lose

if it happens tomorrow.

Hai.

=

Didn't even acknowledge the discussion.

[bobsnox]

MrTrow - malpascp shot is good y/n?

[ToastyToast]

Sorry, who do you want me to switch to? I'm fine with SC or MrTrow, with bobsnox drawing a "MEH"

[MrTrow]

If the day ends and malpascp's vote is still on Bub Bidderskins, malpascp is scum. Period.

qft

scum declaring victory

Spoiler: stuff that's only relevant in case of town-pom

I'm not bobsnox or ToastyToast - if they would prefer to shoot malpascp and jinx Bub Bidderskins that's their prerogative. All they need to do is decide on who does which in advance (and they don't even truly

need

to, as long as bobsnox hits scum - it just works better that way).

My point was: unless there is a clear reason for the other way around your suggestion is likely to be followed, which is exactly what the pack/antb/malp-team would want.

we don't

auto-lose

if it happens tomorrow.

True, doesn`t compensate the fact that the same statement in #968 was calling for the same 'give scum a 50% for no good reason'
or the fact that your 'don`t want to risk the tie-breaker' in #952 excuse for the same thing is totally bogus.

If malpascp were town, malpascp would notice that Pomegranate was scum.

The guy didn`t even find a single question directed at him in this thread.
Yes he should have noticed, but assuming he would have?

MrTrow - malpascp shot is good y/n?

On a bub revive by draw-at-deadline: you are to be

quick

-tie-hammered and you have to shoot malp. (this is not to be debated tomorrow)
On 'something actually happens today(second half)', i would like to see what, but yes he is currently the most likely scum and unless the new information provides something weird he should be shot.

I prefer to wait for his return(it`s likely we have no choice on that matter) but at the moment: YES i am prepared to bet the game on shooting malp

[AntB]

- #902+(AntB): lets play under the assumption we have a lying townie

- #984(AntB): 'uhm.. lets just give up and let scum win'

Misrep much.

#902 I never said anything even close to that. I said based on CBDs message, we have some form of sleeping role who either isn't aware or isn't claiming. My thoughts != "everyone assume extra town PR and go from there"

#984 The game had stalled and it had been going that way for a while, the fact 2 votes seem to be in scum hands currently means either they can force a scum revive (no revive isn't possible) possibly win it outright tomorrow. I believe we may be in a stalemate.

@Mod: What happens if 2 players hold an equal majority of votes at the deadline?

[MrTrow]

#902 I never said anything even close to that. I said based on CBDs message, we have some form of sleeping role who either isn't aware or isn't claiming. My thoughts != "everyone assume extra town PR and go from there"

So you did say:
'according to mod-provided information we have another PR'
You did not say:
'we should assume an extra town-PR'?

Could you please point out the misrep in the above or explain how either:
- a PR that should allow a non-instant town victory after 'empty-limbo' would be a scum PR ('all townies revived' is either not possible or instant, 'half of town alive at single point' in a situation where there will be no more revives is also impossible or instant, so which scum-PR would contribute to 'all-scum-dead')
- players should work based on mod-provided info could be incorrect

#984: indeed not a case by itsself:
in case of pom/bub/malp you are probably correct (pom`s recent 'we win' hints towards that: however we`ve seen 2 of those this game already)
in case of pack/antB/malp a push towards apathy that would benefit said team

If town gives up: scum wins (whether you are town who gives up and chooses to limit own number of proddodges over other townies still playing or scum who wants to inspire townies to do so, remains to be seen)

[Packbat]

Sorry, who do you want me to switch to? I'm fine with SC or MrTrow, with bobsnox drawing a "MEH"

Looking at the PRs we know about, I think it's likely that bobsnox is town, and if he is he's our best shot at victory - why are you "meh" on him?

[ToastyToast]

because the only reason you want to revive him is for his shot. His play is scummy.

[Packbat]

because the only reason you want to revive him is for his shot. His play is scummy.

Let me ask you a question, then. You're town. How will you win?

The way I see it, we have two choices.

(a) Win the draw every time from now to endgame - that's four times: StrangerCoug, AntB, MrTrow, and bobsnox. If we assumed that we could pull off each drawhammer half the time, that would be between 12.5% and 6.25% chance of victory.

(b) Revive bobsnox, shoot scum in limbo, and win because scum can't achieve majority in town. 50% chance of victory.

If you see a third way to reclaim the game, have at.

[Packbat]

The only case in which reviving bobsnox does not strictly dominate reviving

any other player

is the case where bobsnox is scum - and that would mean a four-player scumteam.