Mini 1211: Murder in Sicily [Over]

[Maruchan]

Who is scum most likely to RB? My money would be on Maru based on his soft claims last day period, so that they can kill Link but this didn't happen either, The other option is that they RB'd Link now that doesn't make sense because he got back an Innocent on me.
However if we add a Doctor into the mix then basically we have them protecting Maruchan or Link and it gives us no information on whether xvart is scum or not!

@Mod: how do you fix conflicting night actions? IE: Town RB vs scum RB, how would that be fixed?

[Whiskers]

Disclaimer: This was supposed to be post 899, but my internet got shut off. I'm almost glad you guys didn't do a howle lot while I was away, but then again, I"m a bit pissed off to see that the activity died again and will have to be whipped up. Again.
Anyway, here's that post:
_______________________

Interesting.

[Preedit]
@monk:
Did I say I thought there was a doc? I missed that part. Did I say that? Link thinks there is a doc. Maru thinks there is a doc.

Can the Scum RB not RB

&

Nightkill? Also, why is there "likely a scum RB", all of a sudden? There wasn't before.
Hasn't Maru been pushing for the xvart slot (On Day 1?)? More importantly, Friend (goodtown #1, the original goodtown player (the other two replaced in).) has been pushing for the xvart slot. He should be back from V/LA soon, so I'd reccomend him as a cop-vestigation candidate.

monk, since you're suddenly sure of a Scum roleblocker, what if he roleblocks Maruchan? Then Maruchan can't roleclock Hikari Link, then Hikari Link gets a read, and we lynch Maruchan, Town Jailkeeper.

Look. If you throw a doc into the mix, we DO get info on whether xvart is scum or not, because we're lynching him today. Then we will have that information. YOU, however, are just trying to confuse us. You added in the possiblility of a scum roleblocker (from out of nowhere, so I suspect it's you), so maybe Marucha nnot blocking HikariLink DOESN'T mean he's scum--

Mafia Roleblocker is a much less common role that Doc. Who says there's even a Doc anyway?
Haoala did.

How about you tell us what his coded message meant. Hm?

[Hikari Link]

I'm going to write this from the perspective that I was scum, so bear with me hear. I keep hearing arguments for me possibly being scum on the basis that I could have bussed bobsnox D1 to gain towncred. The problem there is that makes no sense. As I stated when I claimed, people were already starting to like my posts, so I had a pretty good in with the town. Furthermore, scum was already claimed Cop with no counter-claim. For starters, I'm not stupid enough to take the gamble that the Cop hadn't claimed already when I as town I wouldn't claim until D2 if necessary and at least Maruchan felt the same (also, his soft-claim could've been Cop and he could've been waiting for the bobsnox report to reveal, as I originally intended). That's an effective gamble of two scum for some paltry towncred when I already had towncred and bobsnox also had towncred. From there, the night actions would've depended greatly on what the special Mafia roles are. That's an infinitely safer play than claiming Cop, getting my scum partner killed, then apparently giving an innocent verdict on my scum partner, as people seem to be claiming.

Back in the regular perspective now. Now the above doesn't at all remove the possibility that things went that way, it just means that if it's true I'm a far worse player than I've been given credit for being. Now I admit that if xvart flips scum, that it is highly unlikely that Maruchan is scum, but I really can't see any chain of events last night that makes sense leading up to today. Let's look at what happened if every claim is true.

1. I got a report.
2. No night kill happened.
3. xvart got jailed.

1. Now for all of those to be true, that means that either a. xvart was scum performing the kill (unlikely because he had a great deal of scumreads on him, I think) or b. xvart was the kill target (unliely because a mislynch on him would've been easy) or c. there was a Doctor save (not unlikely if the Mafia came after the claimed Cop, but unlikely if a jailkeeper exists) or d. no kill was submitted (unlikely unless there was a scum gambit).

2. It also means that if there is a roleblocker he a. targeted Maruchan (which would mean option only 1c or 1d can be true) or b. targeted me (which means that xvart is the roleblocker) or c. targeted a random player (makes no sense wit a claimed PR and a soft-claimed PR) or d. targeted nobody (why would that happen?).

Now consider how these look from my perspective. 1a is something I just can't see happening and the same for 1b. I'll fully admit that it is possible, but they just seem so highly unlikely that I think you can see where my suspicion would come from. 1c seems possible to me, but I simply don't see the likelihood if Maruchan is legit, which I'll get into soon. 1d makes no sense if Maruchan is legit. Why no kill when they don't even know a Jailkeeper is going to claim? What possible gambit is there to be had and why haven't they made there move yet?

Now let's look at 1c or 1d deeper if Maruchan was scum. Now my assumption from the beginning has been that his claim was due to an unsuccessful kill on my last night as a result of the Doctor and that he never planned to claim if I died, only if I lived. I believe that 1c occurred, only that it happened with Maruchan as scum. On the other hand, I have considered 1d so that he could make his claim guaranteed, but considering that means leaving the Cop untouched for no reason, I really don't see this one as extremely likely anymore.

Moving on to section 2. 2a seems highly unlikely, since as I've said, I can't imagine 1c or 1d with a town Maruchan. 2b seems unlikely to me as well because it seems like a bad idea to have the kill come in with him even more so if he's already got another important duty. Putting all your eggs in one basket just doesn't make sense when a Jailkeeper/Roleblocker could exist in the town. 2c is unlikely unless they were shooting for the doctor, which seems like a far worse move than targeting either me or town Maruchan. 2d just doesn't even make sense.

So if you look at my thought process here, you can see why I'd be suspicious of Maruchan. 1a and 1b just don't add up in my mind and seem far too convenient to be be true. No Mafia Roleblocker scenario makes any sense to me either, so it seems unlikely to me that we will see Maruchan framed.

Hopefully this will help everyone see that I didn't just lose my mind or something and that I actually have a legitimate concern. I'm not even denying that everything could have just went better than expected, but to me that just screams of unlikelihood. If xvart flips scum though, I'll accept the likelihood that Maruchan is town. Especially if he is roleblocker, though even if he's not. In that case, then I'd say Doc on Maruchan (unlikely to exist, but worth a shot) and Maruchan on me. If I die or get a report, then a Maruchan lynch, otherwise, we accept his claim as legit and we can continue onward from there tomorrow.

[Whiskers]

Okay...
Still bugs me that you go, "If xvart flips scum, I'll agree and say Maruchan is probably town! But if stuff doesn't work out in the night, He's scum!"
Yeah, I guess that was the plan. But you JUST SAID that you'd not be so suspicious if xvart flipped scum.

Anyway, w/e. Right now I want to move on to the night phase, and then to the next day phase, because I"m getting all kinds of confused and we're talking about what will happen later like it already has. Let's start the plan into action and talk about what will happen tomorrow tomorrow.

[Hikari Link]

Okay...
Still bugs me that you go, "If xvart flips scum, I'll agree and say Maruchan is probably town! But if stuff doesn't work out in the night, He's scum!"
Yeah, I guess that was the plan. But you JUST SAID that you'd not be so suspicious if xvart flipped scum.

Anyway, w/e. Right now I want to move on to the night phase, and then to the next day phase, because I"m getting all kinds of confused and we're talking about what will happen later like it already has. Let's start the plan into action and talk about what will happen tomorrow tomorrow.

Me not being suspicious of him =/= it not being possible. And you realize that if I die, I'm confirmed town and there's no reason to think my suspicions are in at all suspicious. It's just that if Maruchan is legit, I can't possibly die while I'm in jail and I don't want to let him weasel out by saying there must have been a Roleblocker who blocked him when I've already established why I believe a Roleblocker is unlikely. And since I can't very well post that argument when I've died, I kind of have to post it now, don't I?

So we're 100% clear, my current stance on the three major issues are as follows:

xvart flips town: Doc on me.
xvart flips scum: Doc on Maruchan.

I die: Lynch Maruchan.
I get a report: Lynch Maruchan.
I get no report: Don't lynch Maruchan.

Negative utility claims: No.

I'm going to be gone until tomorrow afternoon/evening/night, so I just thought I'd throw all that out there in case I'm unable to respond to anything.

[Whiskers]

Yeah.

However, monk seems to think there likely

IS

a mafia roleblocker.

[Whiskers]

Sorry, let me rephrase that:

However, monk seems to think there likely

IS

a mafia roleblocker, and he is "confirmed" town.
I'd say monk for Godfather.

Hm, Hikari (Link),, I thought of something. If I were a one-shot day-vig, whose kill didn't end the day, would you have me kill Maruchan?

[Hikari Link]

Sorry, let me rephrase that:

However, monk seems to think there likely

IS

a mafia roleblocker, and he is "confirmed" town.
I'd say monk for Godfather.

Hm, Hikari (Link),, I thought of something. If I were a one-shot day-vig, whose kill didn't end the day, would you have me kill Maruchan?

Why would you put Link in parentheses? And to answer your question, no, I would not. While I'm certainly more inclined to believe he's scum, I'm not so close-minded as to rule out the possibility that he is town and I'm just paranoid.

Also, your monk for Godfather case hinges on the assumption that monk as town would have the exact same thought process as me regarding the Roleblocker. Could you clarify what exactly leads you to that conclusion?

[iamausername]

a. xvart was scum performing the kill (unlikely because he had a great deal of scumreads on him, I think)

This is where we part ways. There are several reasons why xvart might have performed the scum kill.

Perhaps his other partner has some other role to perform at night, preventing him from making the kill. Scum set up of Goon, Goon, [power role] is entirely possible, and if xvart is the other goon beside bobsnox, he'd be making the kill by default in that case.

There's also the possibility that he was forced to make the kill due to his partner's absence; again, I know for a fact that Tovarish has been replaced in at least one other game, and he's not showing any signs of life here either.

And even if we don't assume that xvart had no choice but to make the kill, I still don't see it as particularly unlikely that he'd choose to anyway. MusicNinja was under a fair amount of suspicion on D1, this is true. But he was also the main competition to bobsnox before bob claimed, and towns often assume that they can't have had two scum in their sights on D1. Add on the fact that the case on MusicNinja was necessarily limited by his small number of posts, and it would be easy for xvart to assume that most of the suspicion would blow over quite readily.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Vote count 2.3

(6) Xvart: Friend, Hiraki Link, iamausername, Whiskers, Maruchan, Scumhunter [L-1]

(2) Maruchan: xvart, monk [L-5]

(7) Not voting: Panacea, Scumhunter, Substrike22, Tovarish, Noramp

With

12

alive it will take

7

to lynch.

Day Two Deadline

[Hikari Link]

a. xvart was scum performing the kill (unlikely because he had a great deal of scumreads on him, I think)

This is where we part ways. There are several reasons why xvart might have performed the scum kill.

Perhaps his other partner has some other role to perform at night, preventing him from making the kill. Scum set up of Goon, Goon, [power role] is entirely possible, and if xvart is the other goon beside bobsnox, he'd be making the kill by default in that case.

I want to say that there's nothing preventing scum from performing more than one action during the night and also that the person making the action does not have to send the PM, as is suggested by [urlhttp://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/e7fAkmqYgD6wW]this QT[/url] from a finished game. Now that says nothing about this set up, but it suggests that at least the possibility exists and there are set ups that all this.

There's also the possibility that he was forced to make the kill due to his partner's absence; again, I know for a fact that Tovarish has been replaced in at least one other game, and he's not showing any signs of life here either.

See above statement.

And even if we don't assume that xvart had no choice but to make the kill, I still don't see it as particularly unlikely that he'd choose to anyway. MusicNinja was under a fair amount of suspicion on D1, this is true. But he was also the main competition to bobsnox before bob claimed, and towns often assume that they can't have had two scum in their sights on D1. Add on the fact that the case on MusicNinja was necessarily limited by his small number of posts, and it would be easy for xvart to assume that most of the suspicion would blow over quite readily.

I disagree. Even though the case against him was relatively small, I'd argue that he was still a prime target in many people's eyes.

@Mod

: I'm Hikari Link, not Hiraki Link.

[iamausername]

@mod: Tovarish hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week, any chance we could see about getting a replacement any time soon?

[Hikari Link]

EBWOP: This QT.

[xvart]

Vote: xvart

[iamausername]

Awesome.

[Hikari Link]

Scum self-hammer FTW? Doc on Maruchan, Maruchan on me. Lynch Maruchan if I die tonight.

[Bub Bidderskins]

Who is scum most likely to RB? My money would be on Maru based on his soft claims last day period, so that they can kill Link but this didn't happen either, The other option is that they RB'd Link now that doesn't make sense because he got back an Innocent on me.
However if we add a Doctor into the mix then basically we have them protecting Maruchan or Link and it gives us no information on whether xvart is scum or not!

@Mod: how do you fix conflicting night actions? IE: Town RB vs scum RB, how would that be fixed?

I don't want to delve too much into that topic, but I generally follow Natural Action Resolution.

@Mod:

I'm Hikari Link, not Hiraki Link.

My bad .

@mod: Tovarish hasn't posted anywhere on site in a week, any chance we could see about getting a replacement any time soon?

Tovarish has been prodded, as has Substrike22.

[Bub Bidderskins]

And I just got ninja'd by the hammer. Locking topic. Lynch scene will be up

this evening

tomorrow. I'm tired right now.

Vote count 2.3

(6) Xvart: Friend, Hikari Link, iamausername, Whiskers, Maruchan, Scumhunter, xvart [L-0]

(1) Maruchan: monk [L-6]

(4) Not voting: Panacea, Substrike22, Tovarish, Noramp

With

12

alive it will take

7

to lynch.

Day Two Deadline

[Bub Bidderskins]

Once the sun emerges from the horizon, the madness of daytime begins yet again. Tempers flair and acusations made. But there is a strange order to it this time, and soon Xvart finds himself in the hotseat. When it becomes clear that he will not survive the day, he bolts for the belltower. The villagers give chase up the long, circular staircase. About halfway up, the large bell in the church strikes. What does it mean? Who could have pulled it?

The answer comes when they look up. There is Xvart, with the rope to the bell tied around his own neck, dangling from the top of the chapel. Suddenly, a unearthly laugh greets the town. There, in the corner, is the ghost of Bub Bidderskins, beside himself in hilarity.

"Ha! That stupid fool. Hah, ha, ha! He killed himself! Serves him right. Ha!"

Xvart, Mafia Godfather, Lynched Day Two

Night actions are due within 72 hours (countdown timer). If you have not PMed in your night action within 72 hours, then your action will be ignored.

[Bub Bidderskins]

The sun peaks above the horizon for the third time since the funeral of Bub Bidderskins. The town slept unsoundly that night. Not because they were scared, but because the ghost of Bub Bidderskins was busy mutilating the bodies of his murderers. He is a bit crazy, you know. But at last, the day dawns bright. The town gathers together once more, and again performs a head count.

"Tovarish, Panacea, Hikari, Scumhunter, Substrike, Friend, Whiskers, Noramp, monk, iamausername, all here." But where is Maruchan? He's missing. Bub Bidderskins' voice breaks the silence.

"He's in the bathroom." Phew, that's good to hear. Two nights in a row you thought you lost somebody who turned out to just be in the bathroom.

"No you morons, he's in the bathroom yes, but he isn't coming out." The ghost of Bub Bidderskins flings open the door to the bathroom, and there lies Maruchan, head submerged in the toilet, dead. His hands were handcuffed behind his back with his very own manacles. He lived locking people up, and so it was only fitting that he died locked up.

Maruchan, Town Jailkeeper, Killed Night Two

Vote Count 3.0

(10) Not Voting: Panacea, Scumhunter, Substrike22, Friend, Hikari Link, iamausername, Whiskers, xvart, monk, Tovarish

With

10

alive it takes

6

to lynch

Deadline

[Scumhunter]

RIP Maruchan

[iamausername]

1. Panacea
2. Hikari Link LTP Mafia
4. Scumhunter
6. Substrike22
7. Noramp
8. monk
9. Tovarish
10. Friend
11. iamausername
12. Whiskers

Right, I can of course write off myself. monk is 100% cleared by Link, since the Godfather is dead already. Tovarish has not been on site in like two weeks, so he wasn't around to submit the kill last night. Link's claim is deeply unlikely as a scum gambit. Whiskers is just obvtown.

1. Panacea
4. Scumhunter
6. Substrike22
7. Noramp
10. Friend

These guys are possible scum. I recall having town reads on Scumhunter especially, and Substrike and Friend to a lesser extent. So I'm thinking it's probably Panacea or Noramp.

Off to do some rereading!

[Friend]

VOTE: Panacea

username's analysis is correct. Our scum is in that pool. I'm going with the gut read I had from D1.

[Scumhunter]

Whiskers is not obv town.

[Scumhunter]

Here's to hoping Maruchan didn't actually jail our cop. We really really should have specified that he not jail Link if xvart flipped scum.