Mini 1211: Murder in Sicily [Over]

[monk]

alright im tracker and last night I tracked Substrike and N1 I tracked monk both went nowhere

So you're claiming that you tracked substrike and he didnt go anywhere but hes still scum? I dont buy it not to mention the large amounts of town power

[iamausername]

OK then.

UNVOTE: Noramp
VOTE: Panacea

If Noramp is scum, he has completely written himself into a corner here, so we may as well assume he isn't. He'd have to confirm a new player as town every day to maintain his image as a tracker; we'd run out of unconfirmed players to lynch well before he could kill all the confirmed ones. He can't possibly win as scum now.

If anyone else has any kind of power role, they should probably claim too, by the way. Chances are we can guarantee a win by co-ordinating night actions.

So you're claiming that you tracked substrike and he didnt go anywhere but hes still scum?

I don't see anywhere where he's suggested that substrike is scum.

[iamausername]

Actually, I think we can guarantee a win either way.

10 players left. 3 of them (monk, Substrike & Tovarish) are confirmed town. That leaves seven unconfirmed, including a cop and a tracker (or scum pretending to be tracker, but let's assume not for now). 3 confirmed town, 2 investigators, 4 unconfirmed town, 1 scum.

Let's also assume that we're all idiots and can't lynch scum without eliminating all other unconfirmed players first and see what happens.

We lynch an unconfirmed townie. Scum have to kill one of the investigators. The other one confirms us another townie. That leaves us at 4 confirmed, 1 investigator, 3 unconfirmed, 1 scum.

Lynch one of the unconfirmed town. Scum kills the other investigator. 4 confirmed, 2 unconfirmed, 1 scum.

Lynch an unconfirmed, scum kills a confirmed. 3 confirmed, 1 unconfirmed, 1 scum.

Lynch the last unconfirmed, scum kills a confirmed. 2 confirmed townies and 1 scum. Bang, game over.

So, now that I've conclusively proved that YOU CANNOT POSSIBLY WIN, SCUM, if you could go ahead and out yourself, that would certainly save us all a bit of time.

[iamausername]

Unless of course you want to try to convince us all that Tovarish set his status to invisible on his listed last visit on August 12, flaked from all other games he is in, but returned during the night just to submit his night kill here, then I guess we'd only have 2 confirmed townies, and the whole thing would fall apart.

It'll be a tough one to sell, but I don't think you have another option.

[Scumhunter]

Town reads: Whiskers, Tovarish, Panacea, Noramp
Lean-town: iamausername, Monk
Null: Substrike22, LTP mafia (vote on whiskers and explanation is very bad, however I think mafia would be a bit more self-aware tbh), crappy (0 posts whatsoever)
Slight Lean Scum: Friend
Lean-scum: MusicNinja, bobsnox

Somewhat surprised im a suspect for some of you given my first reads post (above), where I pretty much nailed my top 2 scum reads as scum. Plus I was strongly pushing for a cop to counter day 1, not wanting to let bob off the hook. If I were scum and I knew Ninja was a godfather, I would know there was a cop in the setup and as such it would make literally no sense to try to push for the real cop to come out on d1. A) that real cop would then be protected by any protective roles and b)it would be a careless bus d1. Not offended for being suspected, just surprised is all, any questions about my play I will certainly answer.

I'm not believing noramp's claim here really. But as a lone scum would he really think he would make it to the endgame as a tracker-claim in this scenario? Not so sure. Don't think its particularly likely but desperate times could call for desperate measures. noramp, one way to help convince me you are town if you are in fact town is to provide some sort of compelling case for who is scum if its not you...

Noramp, I'd like more specific reads from you other than just "one of these people are mafia". Why do you think each of your top suspects is likely scum?

[Scumhunter]

For the record I think its incredibly weak to use "inactivity tells" to clear people. If I were scum, I'd be pissed about that!

[Substrike22]

This game would be stupidly imbalanced if there were a Jailkeeper, Tracker, and Cop vs Godfather, Goon, Rb/Goon.

Therefore I suggest that at least one of the Cop/Tracker combo is in fact guilty.

Which runs against Iamuser's list of confirmed town.

[monk]

I don't think we'd have a scum blocker however a scum tracker or scum rolecop would work

[Substrike22]

So you agree with my feelings that one of the two claiming power roles are lying?

[Friend]

I think there's a possibility Noramp is fakeclaiming.

[Noramp]

anything other than stating it's possible that I'm fakeclaiming Friend?

Substrike you said you did not think I was scum or at least suspicious or something does that mean you think Link is fakeclaiming?

[iamausername]

I'm not sure what you are all still arguing about. We have won this game. All we have to do is lynch people who aren't confirmed town. We will run out of unconfirmed townies and hit the scum before the scum can kill enough of us to win.

If Noramp is scum, he will have to clear a new townie every day, and once he has cleared all of the townies that are left, we will lynch him.

Whoever is scum might as well give themself up now, because they have lost.

[monk]

So you agree with my feelings that one of the two claiming power roles are lying?

Yes, one of the two power roles is lying, I'd like to hear whether Link got any results

[Substrike22]

I'm not sure what you are all still arguing about. We have won this game. All we have to do is lynch people who aren't confirmed town. We will run out of unconfirmed townies and hit the scum before the scum can kill enough of us to win.

If Noramp is scum, he will have to clear a new townie every day, and once he has cleared all of the townies that are left, we will lynch him.

Whoever is scum might as well give themself up now, because they have lost.

My point is that if Link is lying then Monk is no longer confirmed town, although I suppose that doesn't really matter cause if we lynch Link then we win if he's scum.

Same story with Noramp. If he's lying then both I and whoever else are no longer confirmed town. But I guess that brings up the same pattern discussed above.

So let me go look at your strategy post tomorrow after I wake up.

[iamausername]

If Link is lying, it means he's scum, which means monk is not scum. Either he is actually a town cop with an innocent on monk, or he is the last scum. Either way, monk is town.

[monk]

Same story with Noramp. If he's lying then both I and whoever else are no longer confirmed town. But I guess that brings up the same pattern discussed above.

That would be me, I am doubleconftownplusplusgood

[Hikari Link]

I'm currently trying to catch up, a few pages behind.

I'm trying to decide whether or not it's possible that Link claimed cop, bussed his scum buddy, then gained an infallible amount of town credit in the process. As such I'm reading particularly carefully.

Cause I mean what could've happened was:
1. Link replaces in D1 and sees that Bobsnox is floundering and that LTP is also a high candidate on many scum lists. (his two scum buddies.)
2. The town is calling for a cop counter claim on Bobsnox on day 1, Link indulges us.
3. Xvart and Link decided in their scumtopic on N1 not to do a kill, or perhaps because they were both replacements, one simply didn't get sent as they hadn't effectively communicated.
4. They employ a gambit with the non kill, with Link pushing that a doc must've saved the kill, and that the likeliness of Xvart actually doing the kill (and thus being effectively roleblocked by Maruchan) was slim to none.
5. Xvart hammers himself to prevent an awkward situation from coming up with VCA on Link.

Anyone want to poke a hole in that admittedly outrageous theory?

Also I'm in the process of doing some important RL things that are kind of interfering. (i.e. considering joining the USAF) So, apologies, and if people have something to say on the above bit, I'll have answers and other scum candidates. Just needed to have something to let you all know I'm here and actually working at the game.

I'll start by saying that there is no way that I'd ever do that as scum. Just letting you know for future reference. That's not a gambit, it's just fucking dumb play.

Here's to hoping Maruchan didn't actually jail our cop. We really really should have specified that he not jail Link if xvart flipped scum.

Also, I think this doesn't make any sense what-so-ever. Though I did not like Maruchan and the feeling was clearly mutual, he was not an idiot. He would not have jailed Link given the scenarios that he was confronted with.

But he did jail me, so that's irrelevant. I got no result. Wasn't really a bad move anyway. Had I been scum, no kill would have went through. Not like there was really a better choice in terms of suspects.

alright im tracker and last night I tracked Substrike and N1 I tracked monk both went nowhere

Works for me. I don't buy the claim one bit, but as has been stated, this is basically a town win. I fully expect one of us to die tonight, but you should probably declare who you are Tracking so that I don't investigate them myself and increase our town-confirming speed. The reason you declare is in case of framer. And you know what would really suck? A Ninja.

So you agree with my feelings that one of the two claiming power roles are lying?

Yes, one of the two power roles is lying, I'd like to hear whether Link got any results

I wish people would read my first posts of the day carefully. I'm the claimed cop, of course I'm gonna bring my results out.

So I'm not really sure in terms of possibility whether or not a Tracker, a Cop, and a Jailkeeper is possible. I want to say it sounds unlikely, but I'd be lying if I said I thought it as implausible as a Jailkeeper, Cop, and Doctor. Point is, there's relly no reason to lynch noramp if he'll just keep confirming townies. It will be annoying as hell to wait it out if he is scum, but if he's not, I imagine both he and I will be night killed in the next two days. Given the current situation, I think Scumhunter, Panacea, or Friend are our best options for a lynch. And of those, I feel like Panacea has the greatest chance of being scum. Reasoning as follows:

Friend

: I've pretty much always read him as town.

iamusername

: Pointless for him to bring up that Mafia have no way to win at this point. Unless he's a Ninja or his assertion that all games of this size have 3 Mafia is untrue.

monk

: Confirmed town.

Noramp

: It's been explained what his fate is destined to be.

Panacea

: My gut says maybe and the fact that there's no escape for scum anymore tells me I don't really give a fuck. A perfect town win would be nice, but at the end of the day, a win is a win.

Scumhunter

: I'd be lying if I said there wasn't always a pang of suspicion here, but this comes with every player that looks extremely town. There's always gong to be the paranoia that there is some sort of boogeyman scum that is incapable of slipping up.

Substrike22

: See monk. Unless of course this set up ends up raping us with 4 scum...

Tovarish

: Seems pretty likely town for obvious reasons. Also want to point out that setting it to invisible removes the last visited date and presumably switching it back will create a new last visited date of when you changed it, so there goes that theory.

Whiskers

: Feelings on Whiskers remain unchanged since the beginning of the game. I could be wrong here, but again, I don't give a fuck. It's or win.

VOTE: Panacea
Sorry if I'm wrong, but you'll win anyway eventually, so don't even trip.

[Scumhunter]

Link is confirmed town due to the fact there is a godfather in the game there is most certainly a cop.

I'm not so sure a cop, jk, tracker would be completely unheard of power for town if there are no other power roles...

Scum flips of goon, godfather (strong scum role), and a potential roleblocker/rolecop (also decent scum power + would make sense with tracker) would be a strong mafia team as well.

We do have the game well in hand, but I'd say we should guard ourselves against lazy lynches and the idea "we will win eventually". No, we won't, if we lynch a bunch of townies in a row.

I highly highly doubt 4 scum especially with a godfather which is a very strong mafia role.

@noramp, why the hell would you "track" Link last night?

He was confirmed town pretty much as soon as bob flipped scum, but certainly 1000% town after the godfather flip. That track makes no sense and I don't believe it for one second. Your "reports" give us as little information as possible, and I really think that is by design. I know some people will say "let the tracker claim live another day" to which I will say why? Let's win today? I have a hard time thinking anyone else (with the exception of Substrike maybe) is likely to flip scum here. If someone could explain the case on Panacea again, please do so as I'm really not seeing it...Barring a very convincing answer to my bolded question, my vote will not be changing today.

[iamausername]

We do have the game well in hand, but I'd say we should guard ourselves against lazy lynches and the idea "we will win eventually". No, we won't, if we lynch a bunch of townies in a row.

Yes we will. As long we don't lynch people who are cleared by the tracker/cop, we WILL win.

@noramp, why the hell would you "track" Link last night?

That would be stupid, which is probably why he tracked Substrike instead.

[Scumhunter]

OH LOL FAIL AT READING. NVM HMM.

[Scumhunter]

My Updated Reads

Confirmed Town

-Link
-Monk
-Substrike (barring some untrackable role, which is fairly unlikely)

Strong Town reads from Strongest to Weakest

-Panacea
-Friend

(Considerable Gap)--Tovy? not sure where to put him

-iamausername
-Whiskers
-noramp

Biggest surprise reading back was probably considering the possibility that iamausername is playing a strong scum game. I mean those 2 scum lynches went pretty smoothly so I wouldn't be surprised if there was some hard bussing going on somewhere. Not really sure who the last scum is but still don't think its Panacea really.

[iamausername]

ALL WE HAVE TO DO IS LYNCH ANYBODY WHO IS NOT CONFIRMED

THAT'S IT

THAT'S ALL WE HAVE TO DO

[iamausername]

Everybody. In your next post, type this, exactly this:

Code: Select all

[vote]Panacea[/vote]

until Panacea is lynched.

If that is not game, then either Link or Noramp will die over night, and whichever of them survives will have a result on one of the following:

iamausername
Scumhunter
Friend
Whiskers

If it's a guilty, we lynch that person and win. If it's not, we lynch one of the other three. If that's not game, then whichever of Link and Noramp is still alive will die.

Two of the four names listed above will be alive, and uncleared. We will lynch one of those. If that isn't game, one of the FOUR confirmed townies will die. We will lynch the last remaining unconfirmed. If that is not game, THE UNIVERSE WILL EXPLODE BECAUSE THAT IS NOT ACTUALLY POSSIBLE.

WE

HAVE

WON

THIS

GAME

ALREADY

[Hikari Link]

We have two options right now. We lynch Noramp, likely winning the game and we leave in a small margin for the possibility that we lose, or we wait until he or I confirm almost all town and pretty much guarantee that we win.

So right now we've got 10 player. 3 are confirmed town, 2 are claimed PRs with the ability to confirm town, and 5 are unknowns. So if we lynched town today, I guarantee that I die or Noramp dies (but noramp is probably scum, so me), since the Mafia aren't going to want two confirmations a day. That leaves us coming into tomorrow with 4 confirmed, 1 claimed PR, and 3 unknowns. From there, we lynch an unknown and the PR dies during the night or a confirmed townie does. That leaves us with 4 confirmed townies, 1 PR, and 1 unknown or 4 confirmed townies and 2 unknowns. From there we can lynch the PR, a confirmed townie will die at night, and we can lynch the final unknown the next day. In an absolute worst-case scenario though, we'd lose if there was a Ninja among us.

On the other hand, lynching Noramp today means that we can end the game if he is scum, but we'll have to do some actual scumhunting since I'll die tonight and there will be nobody left to confirm town. It will leave us with 3 confirmed town and 5 unknowns. The confirmed are guaranteed to die every night and unknowns lynched every day, so it will progress to 2-4, then 1-3, which is MyLo.

Both of these are the worst-case scenarios, assuming crazy amounts of town error. The former is clearly the superior method, but the latter is faster if Normap is scum. And should anyone want to entertain the notion that I am scum, remember that I'll be confirming town daily. Oh, and should a PR claim that they were roleblocked at all, they should be lynched immediately, as they lose all usefulness the moment their power stops working and there is no longer any way to confirm that they are town. So I'm sticking with that first idea.

The following assume I die tonight and the town mislynches everyday and all results are innocent. Based on the plan I presented, I'm going to suggest a Panacea lynch today, Whiskers tracking tonight, and mystery investigation from me in case there is a Framer. Tomorrow I'm dead, we lynch Scumhunter and track Friend. Then I suggest an iamusername lynch or a Noramp lynch if he is still alive. If Noramp was night killed, we need a Friend lynch and if he was not, an iamusername lynch. Unless one of the "confirmed town" is a Ninja, we win. This order is what I consider to be the most likely to avoid tracking a Ninja.

@Scumhunter: I'm not confirmed town. I could have lied about being jailed by Maruchan and thinking bussing bobsnox was a terrible move. I'm not scum, but there's no confirmation that I can see. Tovarish is confirmed town too, since there is no way he could have sent in the kill PM while he was offline.

@iamusername: Technically, a ninja could still fuck us. Technically.

[iamausername]

In the alternate scenario where Noramp is scum:

We lynch Panacea. Link dies. Noramp still has to clear one of the four names listed above to convince us he is really a tracker. We lynch one of the other three. One of the NINETY FUCKIN MILLION confirmed townies dies. Noramp has to clear one of the two remaining unconfirmed. We lynch the other one. Another confirmed townie dies.

Now everybody is confirmed town except for Noramp. Maybe you can figure out what to do from there yourself. (hint: we lynch Noramp).

THE GAME IS OVER

TOWN WIN

CONGRATULATIONS

CRACK OPEN THE CHAMPAGNE EVERYBODY