Flash mafia 3 (town wins)

[shaft.ed]

mastin more likely scum

I'd put Elli towards the bottom of the unknown pile off of read. But from various tracking/RBing info Elli moves up some by default

right now I'd rather have a Llamarble lynch

[springlullaby]

Hi guys

1. Massclaim needs to be carried through since it has been all but . There is no point in discussing whether it was a good or bad idea now. We can't let that go unfinished as it will only cause more atmosphere of confusion and possible wiggle room, whereas it will not harm town badly if we do it.

a.The pro for massclaim:
i/No wiggle room for scum
ii/Optimal RP coordination.
iii/One more conftown for today's lynch which improves our chances at ending this game right now.
iv/Put a rest to wild setup speculation

b.The cons:
Doc is dead tonight if we don't lynch scum today. BUT it still leaves us enough chances at lynching correctly before we runs out of right minded townies. So this needn't be a issue now, especially since it has already done halfway, and as said, it improves our chances of lynching correctly today.

c. The tab

Claimed:
Regfan --------------------- Tracker
Farside --------------------- RB
VPBaltar ------------------- VT
Ellibereth ------------------- VT
Llamarble ------------------ VT
Mastin2 ------------------- VT

Unclaimed:
Porochaz
Springlullaby
shaft.ed

d. Comment: My preferred order would Porochaz going first. This is because I'm not liking the fact that Porochaz is not willing to claim whereas he has already been tracked, I just don't see the point.

@At Porochaz

, please just claim.

I'm indifferent whether I or shafted claim first, but if forced to choose I would like to claim last as I know I'm town. Shafted, what do you say?
BTW, I'm retracting shafted from the red scum list, I think what he has said today is townish.

____________________________________________________________________________________

2. Setup speculation, or 1 or 2 scum left.

I agree with what most people said today. The most probable scenario 3 scum, and only one left.
1 janitor+goon+maf(assuming goon)+maf (assuming goon) vs doc+RB+tracker seems too scumsided to me. If we had a cop, I'd be willing to believe in 4 scum, but a tracker and RB as the sole investigative capable power is not fair against so many scum with a janitor. It might be plausible, but only if mykonian was a really bad mod. Occam Razor here.

The only plausible screw I can see would be the existence of saulus or of a third party survivor. But even then, and even if there were indeed 4 scum, the best chances still lies with proceeding by eliminating people who aren't confirmed in any capacity.

@Farside,

I think you are tunnelling a bit on VPB. As shafted already pointed out, he is 50/50 meaning that there are better target. I also think that DGB couldn't have been scum because I have never seen scum actually rage quit. It would be dishonourable for any scum to rage quit anyway, and I don't see DGB as scum not just letting herself getting lynched.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


3. I think mastin is scum.

a. His reads are terrible.
b. His vote on regfan, and subsequent retraction is horrible. I think he thought he thought he could bullshit a scenario with reg being a scum tracker, and is backtracking ad-haste right now because he sees that it isn't possible. This is scummy because even if scum tracker was a possible role nothing would make reg 'sure scum' as he has hinted in his voting post.

@Mastin,

I'd like you to clearly state why you thought Reg was sure scum here to convince me otherwise.

VOTE MASTIN

--------------------------------------------

Predit ninja: well ok,

I'm VT

[springlullaby]

Porochaz next please.

[shaft.ed]

um...you're the only one who hadnt claimed SL

[shaft.ed]

also dun dun!
weird situation ahoy!

Llamarble and VPB must be the scumteam?

[springlullaby]

BTW no setup speculation is a good suggestion before Porochaz claims.

Prediit: Nahh, Porochaz didn't claim that I could see. He was tracked. Difference.

[Regfan]

Uh.

What.

[springlullaby]

Porochaz still needs to claim.

[Porochaz]

VT

[Porochaz]

vote Llamarble

farside Ill get to your question later.

[Regfan]

Okay. Now I'm confused as fuck and going to bed, I'll get to this in the morning, no quick-lol-lynches while I'm asleep please.

[shaft.ed]

OK only ways to explain no kills

Farside RB successful
Scum flaked and forgot
Saulus recruitment

If we exclude forgetting the only setup I can see is
N1-Llamarble gets blocked by farside = no kill
N2-Mafia recruits VPB = no kill
N3 - VPB gets blocked by farside = no kill
N4 - Llamarble submits the kill = Fate dead

[Regfan]

Three scum and a Saulus with the only town PRs being a tracker and a roleblocker? Nah, not happening, someone has claimed VT as doc. Only logical explanation that I can think of.

[springlullaby]

4 scums vs RB+tracker?

Why do you need four scum?

[shaft.ed]

Three scum and a Saulus with the only town PRs being a tracker and a roleblocker? Nah, not happening, someone has claimed VT as doc. Only logical explanation that I can think of.

i dont see the point of that

[springlullaby]

Or the scum team is choosing to no kill to fuck stuff up. Or scum didn't send in kills due to being replaced/VLA.

[Regfan]

I don't see the point of it either but it's possible the doctors scared of claiming due to it leading towards their inevitable death. I'm struggling to think of an alternate possibility. Also Shafted, Farside is clear unless you think she's a third party survivor that can roleblock.

[shaft.ed]

I really dont know exactly
but with no Doc claimed and a ton of missing kills, it'd be pretty stupid not to start with the people that were roleblocked

given of the claimed roleblocks
-1 is a proven town aligned only power role
-1 was blocked on a night when a kill went through
-1 was only blocked on a night with a no kill

It seems pretty obvious where to start


The Doc not claiming now would be very very stupid. Scum can now use the "oh I didn't want to out myself" approach to fake claiming doc since we have a swath of VTs.

VOTE: Llamarble

[Regfan]

The Doc not claiming now would be very very stupid. Scum can now use the "oh I didn't want to out myself" approach to fake claiming doc since we have a swath of VTs.

Easily preventable. Doctor on me, I track doctor. I either clear or confirm doctor. Meaning if there is a doctor they

need

to claim now. Are you suggesting that Llarmable no killed N2/N3? He knows better than that to be honest. Sigh this really isn't adding up.

[VP Baltar]

I agree that the doc should claim now. If you're trying to keep something back for tonight, you're not being helpful, as everyone is now royally confused. If scums were just foregoing NKs to fuck things up, then kudos.

Mastin is probably scum here given the way he's reacting to Reg today.

[VP Baltar]

Also, your theory is beyond bad shaft.ed. The idea of four scum vs a RB + Tracker for town as the only power is something that no mod would consider and no reviewer would approve.

[shaft.ed]

Also, your theory is beyond bad shaft.ed. The idea of four scum vs a RB + Tracker for town as the only power is something that no mod would consider and no reviewer would approve.

well Saulus isn't guaranteed member for the scumteam
I guess the more likely could still be just a missed/deliberate no kill by mafia, but bein that effed up why keep digging the whole deeper?

Assuming a flaked kill: mastin and SL should be at the upper end of a lynch list
Assuming a planned no kill: I have no idea Llamarble maybe so he wasn't the only RB'd player to line up with a no kill? Having to do it again after a confirmable role was blocked?

Still multipe theories point to Llamarble. I dont really see a better lynch for today. Maybe mastin?

[Regfan]

If we legit get no doctor claim this is confirmed three mafia setup and it means that there's a guarenteed no kill occuring on N2 and N3. This means we have:

Clears

: Farside, Regfan, VPBaltar

Unclears

(1) Elibereth
(2) SpringLullaby
(3) Shafted
(4) Llarmable
(5) Porochaz
(6) Mastin

We lynch (1) Farside roleblocks (2), I track (3). Mafia are forced to shoot Farside to prevent no kills and more clears occurring in future days. If Farside dies and (3) no visits both (2) and (3) become clear leaving us with three unclears (4, 5 and 6) and three lynches (7 alive tomorrow, lynch, kill 5 alive, lynch, kill 3 alive). If mafia no kill then we lynch (2). Farside roleblocks (3) and I track (4). Same situation occurs again. Following this plan exactly puts us in autowin but to speed it up we can vote on the order of the six unclears.

Now I can sleep.

[Regfan]

Oh and I want Shafted and Spring to be (5) and (6). The order of the other four I don't care for that much.

[shaft.ed]

Since we already have a block on Llamarble he should be 1
just sayin

unless you really want to take the Rube Goldberg approach to this


I'm still not buying back to back no kills by scum. If that is the preferred theory, it does drop Llamarble down on the chain of possible scum since he's been active throughout