Flash mafia 3 (town wins)

[farside22]

Mastin: Your an idiot if you think Spring is scum based on N1 doctor result unless your scum. Your an idiot even more if you think we should lynch Porochaz when he was tracked night fucking 3 and didn't go anywhere according to the fucking tracker. Do you really fucking believe the scum would not submit a fucking kill?

The above goes to LM, not mastin. Obviously I put LM under the same category as Mastin.

[Regfan]

Again I read the flash and it said the ninja can also bypass a doctor and a roleblocker ability as well as not be tracked or watched. Why would the scum if they had that ability not use it? Don't tell me they would not use it either.

It says they *may be able to*, it doesn't' state that they guaranteed can, again I just think it makes sense in the setup (Not saying that Poro is mafia due to it) just that it's inclusion is possible and would remove the possibility of four scum if true. Honestly, I think the doctor *randoming* between you and me is the best move tonight, that way whoever it saves is guaranteed to live for another two nights and mafia won't know which one of us are able to be shot later down the line.

I'm perfectly fine with lynching Mastin at this point despite having a town-read on him previously, I think we have this game on lock down PoE wise and I still don't think Spring or Shafted are mafia leaving it having to be one of Mastin, Porochaz or Llarmable.

I honestly think Llarmable is the smarter roleblock than VPBaltar, if Mastin flips town and a kill goes through it would clear Llarmable if this is three scum and if it's four scum I *might* track the scum submitting the night-kill because I'll be *random* tracking between Porochaz, VPBaltar and Spring.

[farside22]

Regfan; Last time I'm pointing this out and then you can fucking stop being paranoid about a Ninja:

Mafia Ninja:

Per the flash:

The mafia ninja cannot be tracked by a tracker, nor detected by a watcher.

He may also be able to bypass doctors and roleblockers like a mafia hitman.

If you were scum and had the above ability and you had been blocked by the doctor night 2 (we know this one for sure was a doctor protect) then would you use this ability to guarantee a kill the next night?

[Llamarble]

Farside, I don't think Poro or Spring are scum.
They have a better chance of being scum than VP though.
I am quite confident scum is Mastin or Shafted.

[Regfan]

Farside, I'm reading that very differently than you are. I read the

may also be able to

as it stating potential for him to have that ability but not it being compulsory. Anyway this is a pointless argument, we're not lynching Porochaz today anyway and the plan that we have in place should put us in a guarenteed win position as long as you're willing to roleblock Llarmable tonight rather than VPBaltar.

Unvote, Vote: Mastin

[farside22]

@Regfan: Are you tracking Shaft.ed tonight?

[Regfan]

@Regfan: Are you tracking Shaft.ed tonight?

Oh, I forgot about him. Add him to that list that I had and I'll *roll a dice* and track one of them, that's all that needs to be said on the matter. So you're cool with roleblocking Llarmable tonight? If so we can get this lynch rolling.

[farside22]

Actually fuck this shit.

If Mastin flips town:

I will RB Shaft.ed since I'm more leaning scum on him then you are Regfan.
Regfan can track LM (he is the only other non-confirmed.)

When I turn out right (and I believe with every fiber of my being I'm correct about 2 scum team members). I want a fucking sheep vote from Regfan to VBP for being obvious fucking scum at this point.
If you don't see the obvious fucking scum point on that I will take your arm and beat the shit out of you with it and then feed you, your arm.

Are you getting what I'm putting down little boy?

Who else beside LM and Regfan are unconfirmed town?

[Regfan]

You have yourself a deal, you roleblock Shafted and I'll *randomly* track one of Llarmable, VPBaltar and Porochaz. Elibereth can *randomly* save one of us tonight and doesn't announce which one of us are saved at any point. Lets go.

[farside22]

Why are you tracking players that we have either RB'ed or tracked when you just got through telling me not to do that?

[Regfan]

Why are you tracking players that we have either RB'ed or tracked when you just got through telling me not to do that?

If there's three scum it's automatic win no matter what our role actions are therefore optimal play is to use our role actions to guarantee a win in worst case scenario being four scum, randomly tracking in all of the people who would be *unclear* if there's four scum is the best play I can see.

Essentially if Mastin flips town and there's a kill tonight and I haven't tracked Llarmable we would lynch him. If he flips town then there's a guarantee that there is either two scum remaining or a mafia ninja around. If it's two scum remaining my track tonight would be useful and if there's a mafia ninja around none of my trackers would be useful anyway.

[farside22]

Why are you tracking players that we have either RB'ed or tracked when you just got through telling me not to do that?

If there's three scum it's automatic win no matter what our role actions are therefore optimal play is to use our role actions to guarantee a win in worst case scenario being four scum, randomly tracking in all of the people who would be *unclear* if there's four scum is the best play I can see.

Essentially if Mastin flips town and there's a kill tonight and I haven't tracked Llarmable we would lynch him. If he flips town then there's a guarantee that there is either two scum remaining or a mafia ninja around. If it's two scum remaining my track tonight would be useful and if there's a mafia ninja around none of my trackers would be useful anyway.

I really, really want to hit you right about now. I have been arguing about that with LM for the past fucking hour!

*fucking piece of shit, god damn mother fuckers*

I'm going to wait for Elli to finish his thoughts before he lynch anyone right now. Spring needs to do a catch up too, then well do this things.

[Regfan]

I really, really want to hit you right about now. I have been arguing about that with LM for the past fucking hour!

The major difference between what you and Llarmable were arguing about and this is that the use of a tracker is different to that of a roleblocker. Anyway I'm not in the mood to get into a massive theoretical discussion about it.

[shaft.ed]

I'd put Elli towards the bottom of the unknown pile off of read. But from various tracking/RBing info Elli moves up some by default

right now I'd rather have a Llamarble lynch

What did you mean by the above?

Of the pile of players that we had no role related confirms on (you + Regfan) I had a town read of Elli. I'd say I'm reading SL/Ythill and Elli as pretty likely town. But since VPB and poro are partially cleared they bump up to more likely town based on pure odds. Bottom refers to how much I wanted to lynch them.

I was just arguing that what you were providing wasn't a reason for Elli to be town

I disagree with this. Lets look at what you said again:

That's a really piss poor example of Elli town. That's definitely something a scumbuddy would point out because it's ridiculously obvious that it is a blown fakeclaim. Someone is going to notice that, might as well get town points.

This sounds to me like someone whom is thinks Elli's behavior is more scummy. Why would you point out that what I call a town tell is something that is more likely coming from scum if you found Elli obvious town?

I have a bad habit of arguing for the sake of arguing. What I was trying to say is that isn't a strong town tell like you are making it out to be. Elli essentially drove the final nail into a coffin that was already buried 6 feet under, had a big heavy headstone, pristine green grass growing above it and a bunch of people dancing ontop of it. I don't think it shows likelihood of being town or scum because it could be a townsided player pointing it out to pile onto the lynch or it could be scum going for bus points, but you were stating it was an ubertown tell.

[shaft.ed]

I think at this point I'm pretty happy with a mastin lynch. Town in this situation should be involved and setting up strategies. He's pretty disinterested.

Night plan looks solid enough

[VP Baltar]

Is Mastin dead yet?

In terms of everything that farside just said, I shall reply, 'there, there'

[springlullaby]

I'm still feeling slightly embarrassed about having the doc-read off :/.

Oww, don't be. Ythill softclaimed pretty hard, and I'm good at fake crumbing too. I found it hilarious when you wrote a line about not wanting to lynch me because of "reasons you'd rather not go into yet". Anyway, it's a shame my effort were in vain since Ythill was N1 target.

Personally I'm going with Occam's Razzor's here. Fourscum is unlikely.

@Farside

Why are you paranoiac about this? I'd like to negotiate a Mastin vote from you today. He is scummy, and has a good chance of being scum due both behaviour and probabilities. Would you agree? Please, please, please.

[springlullaby]

My lynch order:
mastin
porochaz
shafted
marbles

[springlullaby]

Btw, I totally knew ellibereth was doc (missed run deer? that has to be the dorkiest breadcrumb ever), with a small chance of it being shafted.

Also, I'm getting a survivor read on porochaz. but maybe that's because youtube is GreatFireWalled in china (as is imageshack).

Plus I find it funny that the tracker and the RB are both running wild with each a different pet paranoia catastrophe scenario which exactly correspond to what must be their insecurity about the usefulness or their own role.

Tracker--------------> OMG there must be a NINJA in this game that I CAN'T TRACK and WE ARE GOING TO LOSE, WAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
RoleBlocker --------> OMG there must be 4 MANNED SCUMTEAM WITH A JANITOR IN A 14 PLAYERS GAME WITH NO COP, it means I CAN'T RB THEM and WE ARE GOING TO LOOSE, WAHHHHHHHH

[farside22]

@Farside Why are you paranoiac about this? I'd like to negotiate a Mastin vote from you today. He is scummy, and has a good chance of being scum due both behaviour and probabilities. Would you agree? Please, please, please.

I agree that Mastin is scummy enough for a lynch.

As for the paranoia lets say I find it just.

Also if you think there is only 1 scum left why, oh why is Porochaz on your lynch list if he didn't go anywhere night 3 and no one was found dead that morning? Do you really think scum would not submit a kill?

I'm going to keep asking the above question to people who keep telling me there is one scum left, but have Poro on there list of to be lynched by the way.

[farside22]

Personally I find VB and Shaft scummier then Mastin, but I think after my comments, tunneling and views on AGOTI no one is going to listen to my view in this any more.

So whatever people want to believe is more then up to them.

@Spring and Regfan: Since you 2 are confirmed town to me more then anyone else here, this is the deal. You 2 are of the belief that there is one scum left in this game.
If we lynch Mastin today and he flips town.
Then I RB Shaft and Regfan should track LM. That way if Regfan comes back with no results and there is still a kill tonight I want to laugh my ass off, and do what comes down to giving a big fat I told you so tomorrow.

[springlullaby]

Also if you think there is only 1 scum left why, oh why is Porochaz on your lynch list if he didn't go anywhere night 3 and no one was found dead that morning? Do you really think scum would not submit a kill?

My mistake, in my head he was tracked N2.

My new lynch list(s):

List 1 (3 scumz scenario):
Mastin
Shafted
Lammarble



List 2 (4 scumz scenario, ninja scenario, if the game doesn't end when mastin-shafted-lammarbe have been flipped/tracked/rb):
porochaz
VPB

There.

[farside22]

Fine, fine. I think LM is more town then either VPB or porchaz, but I'm getting off my soap box.

Still waiting on Elli to finish his thoughts.

@Regfan: If you are not tracking the unconfirmed player. Please let me know now.
I will be switching to blocking LM with some people's belief that there is only one scum left in this game.

[springlullaby]

@Spring and Regfan: Since you 2 are confirmed town to me more then anyone else here, this is the deal. You 2 are of the belief that there is one scum left in this game.
If we lynch Mastin today and he flips town.
Then I RB Shaft and Regfan should track LM. That way if Regfan comes back with no results and there is still a kill tonight I want to laugh my ass off, and do what comes down to giving a big fat I told you so tomorrow.

I think it is an ok plan as it confirm/contradict whether this is a 3 scum game in one night.

Well I can't talk for Reg but no probs with me
Seriously though, farside, I think you've been protown and obtown all game but letting the paranoia get to you on this. And look at who's feeding it --->Mastin

[springlullaby]

Fine, fine. I think LM is more town then either VPB or porchaz, but I'm getting off my soap box.

Well, if I had to go on reads alone, I would find porochaz to be scummier than Lammarbles today too. I still don't think DGB would have ragequit as scum.

But I think it is wiser and safer to proceed methodically right now.