TV Mafia Game Over - Scum Win

[ZeL1nK]

I totally wasn't paying any attention to the thread while it was happening,

What's the point of this line of questioning?

[Banshee]

What do you think the point of this line of questioning is?

[ZeL1nK]

You're trying to give the appearance that you're scum hunting, but you're not actually.

Those are shit questions.

[Banshee]

All right, so far I've derived that you weren't paying any attention during the last day ... or, for that matter, for a while.

I'm certain that Shotty is going to flip scum. If he doesn't, that's awesome, we have a whole bunch of confirmed town. If he doesn't, then I have to start looking at people I was assuming were town. I'm not likely to think MoI is scum at this point. Rainbowdash is confirmed town by death. You're the other VT Shotty "found", and you weren't even bothering to read or keep up with the thread for the last few days of the game. Since scum already know who the scum are, they don't need to read the thread to find out either. So yeah, I wanted a reaction from you and I got it.

It's POSSIBLE that all Shotty's reads were truthful even if he IS scum, but I kind of doubt it, don't you?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Here’s my quick VC analysis work. Confirmed Town (via Death) are blue. Confirmed scum are Red. Rodion is considered confirmed Town for these purposes.

All scum numbers are estimates based on site norms. This isn’t rocket science here … it is somewhat art so don’t bother trying to argue with me about how I approach the analysis. If you don’t like it …. do your own.

Day 4 has been omitted due to Rod’s Modkill.

Also I know in advance there are going to be some coloration issue with inconsistencies in the names used in the Vote-counts. The analysis should take these errors into account. Sue me.

End of Day 1 Vote Count

Day 1 Vote count 17

Zingerl

14 - Vezo,Mysterio,

Junpei

, FourseenC, Izak,

Pappum

,,

KillerJester

, DavidX,

Vollkanl

,

Rainbow

,Jakalope,

Pinky

, Banshee, Shotty. (Lynch)
Silver 6 -

Oversoul

, Nero, Mera ,

Zingerl

,

CHKBallin

,

Andrew

FourseenC 1 - PeregrineV
Izak 1 - ZeL1nk,

Andrew

1 -

THAdmiral

Nero 1 - Silver

Pappum

s 1 - MOI

Not Voting: 2 -

Castle

,

Rodion

.

Day 1 Analysis –

With 27 alive and an expected 8 total scum (average of expected amount at 25% and 33%) it is expected that 4 scum will be on the wagon and 4 scum off the wagon.

4 scum expected on the Wagon – Vezok, Mysterio, Fourseen, Izak, David, Jakalope, Banshee, Shotty

2 scum expected off the Wagon – Nero, Meran, Peregrine, Zelink, Silver

End of Day 2 Vote Count

Day 2 Vote Count 7

Andrew

13 -

THAdmiral

, Banshee, Killer, Izak, Shotty, Jackalope,

Rainbow

dash,

CHKBallin

,Castle,Nero,

Junpei

,ZeL1nk,Mera
Silver 3- , FourseenC, mysterio, ,MOI
Izak 3

Pinky

, Silver,

Pappum

s,

Rodion

1 - Vezo

Oversoul

1 -PeregrineV

Not Voting –

Rodion

,

Andrew

94,

Oversoul

, DavidX

Day 2 Analysis –

With 25 alive and an expected 8 total scum it is expected that at least 3 scum (either bussing or other faction) on the Andrew wagon and 5 scum off the wagon.

3 scum expect on the Wagon – Banshee, Izak, Shotty, Jakalope, Nero, Zel1nk, Meran

3 scum expected off the Wagon – Fourseen, mysterio, Silver, Vezo, Peregrine, David

End of Day 3 Vote Count

Day 3 Vote count 3

Oversoul

12 -

Rainbow

,

CHKBallin

,

THAdmiral

,

Pinky

,Shotty, Mysterio,TheJakalope, Meransiel,CastleB,Nero, FourseenCircumstance,

KillerJester

Castle

2 - vezokpiraka,

Rodion

Shotty 2 - MOI,

Oversoul

unforseen 1 -

Junpei

Not voting

PeregrineV,Banshee, ZeL1nK,izak ,silverbullet999,David Xanatos

Day 3 Analysis –

With 23 alive and an expected 7 total scum it is expected that at least 3 scum on the Oversoul wagon and 4 scum off the wagon

3 scum expected on the wagon – Shotty, Mysterio, Jakalope, Meran, Nero, Fourseen

3 scum expected off the wagon – Vezok, Peregrine, Banshee, Zel1nk, Silver, Izak, David

End of Day 5 Vote Count

Day 5 vote count 1

Castle 9 - Vezo,Fourseen, MOI, Banshee, ,Mysterio,DavidX,

THAdmiral

,Izak TheJakalope (Lynch)
Shotty 3 -

Rainbow

,PerigrineV, ZeL1nk
PerigrineV 1 - Castle

Not Voting

Meransiel
Nero Cain
drmyshottyizsik
silverbullet999

Day 5 Analysis –

With 17 alive and an expected 6 total scum it is expected that 3 scum will be on the wagon and 3 scum off the wagon.

3 scum expected on the wagon – Vezok, Fourseen, Banshee, Mysterio, David, Izak, Jakalope

3 scum expected off the wagon – Peregrine, Zel1nk, Meran, Nero, Shotty, Silver

[MagnaofIllusion]

Qualitative Analysis of Wagons –

4 scum in 8 players (.5 points each) – Vezok, Mysterio, Fourseen, Izak, David, Jakalope, Banshee, Shotty

2 scum in 5 players (.4 points each) – Nero, Meran, Peregrine, Zel1nk, Silver

3 scum in 7 players (.425 points each) – Banshee, Izak, Shotty, Jakalope, Nero, Zel1nk, Meran

3 scum in 6 players (.5 points each) – Fourseen, Mysterio, Silver, Vezok, Peregrine, David

3 scum in 6 players (.5 points each) – Shotty, Mysterio, Jakalope, Meran, Nero, Fourseen

3 scum in 7 players (.425 points each) – Vezok, Peregrine, Banshee, Zel1nk, Silver, Izak, David

3 scum in 7 players (.425 points each) – Vezok, Fourseen, Mysterio, David, Izak, Jakalope

3 scum in 6 players (.5 points each) – Peregrine, Zel1nk, Meran, Nero, Shotty, Silver

Complied Results –

Vezok – 1.85
Mysterio – 1.925
Fourseen – 1.925
Izak – 1.725
David – 1.85
Jakalope – 1.85
Banshee – 1.35
Shotty – 1.925
Nero - 1.825
Meran – 1.825
Peregrine – 1.825
Zel1nk – 1.75
Silver – 1.825

[ZeL1nK]

That's one of the most useless VCAs I've ever seen, and Banshee is 1.775, not 1.35.

All right, so far I've derived that you weren't paying any attention during the last day ... or, for that matter, for a while.

You know how I know you're scum. Because if you were town, scum would have killed you already; you're that smart.

[ZeL1nK]

And Izak is 1.775, too.

Fuck yeah, I have the lowest score. Do I get a prize?

[Banshee]

That's one of the most useless VCAs I've ever seen, and Banshee is 1.775, not 1.35.

This is correct, you missed me off the last wagon, MoI.

You know how I know you're scum. Because if you were town, scum would have killed you already; you're that smart.

You're wrong, but I kind of want to sig that anyway.

[MagnaofIllusion]

But Magna, what does it all mean?

First let’s Tier the suspects by their Compiled results

Top Tier (aka most scummy) of 1.925 – Mysterio, Fourseen, Shotty
Second Tier (in the 1.8s) – Vezok, David, Jakalope, Nero, Meran, Peregrine, Silver
Low Tier (below 1.8) – Izak, Zel1nk

Um, whut Tier (Banshee apparently disappeared from my last Day 5 Vote Count … to be corrected next time around if I live) – Banshee (expected in Second Tier looking at the Raw data again)

The MoIputer results here look pretty flat. That’s to be expected when there are so many expected scum floating around.

I’m not surprised at all that Shotty clocks in at the top of the list given his play.

I’d be looking at Mysterio and Fourseen’s slots heavily given their location in the tiers. I expect at least one is probably scum with Shotty.

Izak and Zel1nk look pretty solidly not likely to be scum at this stage.

Of course as more scum flips happen this analysis will have a greater spread.

--

Other, nonqualitative observations –

The Day 1 Silver wagon (Oversoul, Nero, Mera , Zingerl, CHKBallin, Andrew) pretty solidly clears both Meran and Nero of being Mafia. With two already on the wagon I doubt highly the Silver has more than 2 scum, especially given their cluster at the start of the wagon (Over, Nero, Meran)

The Day 2 Not Voting area pretty solidly clears DavidX of being Mafia. Again, with 2 Mafia already there clustering their votes like that isn’t likely to happen.

So looking at my tiers and the nonqualitiative observations my current pool of Most Likely Suspects (before looking at actual dayplay) is

Shotty, Mysterio, Fourseen, Vezok, Jakalope, Peregrine, Silver, Banshee

VOTE: Shotty. No need to wait any longer, IMO.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's one of the most useless VCAs I've ever seen, and Banshee is 1.775, not 1.35.

Thanks, given your general play this game I'll take that as a compliment.

[David Xanatos]

Is he sitting at L-1 now then, or was that a hammer?

Got contacts in, hurting my eyes to watch the screen but been trying to follow. Not sure what to make of Shotty's claim that Silver's a JK, play doesn't fit, JK wouldn't offer himself as known Town JK for someone who was claiming 3rd party JK. Doesn't make sense.

Willing to hammer if there's nothing else we need today. Won't be around for next half hour, taking these blasted things out.

[MagnaofIllusion]

That's L-1. I don't see any big objections to the hammer but maybe it would be best to let everyone still alive check in.

[ZeL1nK]

So I take it that means you think there's 6 scum alive in 14 players?

Who were your suspects before doing that VCA?

[MagnaofIllusion]

So I take it that means you think there's 6 scum alive in 14 players?

Who were your suspects before doing that VCA?

That's an educated guess based on site standards and the PRs we have seen turn up so far.

I'd have to dig through the QT I had with Thad to see who I suspected before the whole Castle / Shotty / Rodion debacle. Fourseen was on my radar I do remember.

Who are your suspects? I've scanned your ISO and see a whole lot of not much in that department.

[Banshee]

If there are six scum remaining aren't we at LYLO?

[ZeL1nK]

btw. here's what's obviously wrong with your VCA:

You're assuming a 50/50 split all the time, even on scum lynches.
You're not taking into account the "cop" result that led to andrew's lynch D2.
Your VCA is based on 8 players all knowing they're scum together - essentially you're suggesting a single 8-man scum team

And, well, it's not actually an analysis of any sort.

Who are your suspects?

If we're both alive tomorrow, ask me again. I've read maybe 2% of the last 50 pages. Might do some sort of catchup tomorrow.

VOTE: Shotty

If there are six scum remaining aren't we at LYLO?

Presumably there's an SK or something. I highly doubt there's 6 scum from a single faction that began with 8

[MagnaofIllusion]

btw. here's what's obviously wrong with your VCA:

You're assuming a 50/50 split all the time, even on scum lynches.
You're not taking into account the "cop" result that led to andrew's lynch D2.
Your VCA is based on 8 players all knowing they're scum together - essentially you're suggesting a single 8-man scum team

And, well, it's not actually an analysis of any sort.

1. Actually the number expected wagons is based on a raw percentage of scum expect left multiplied by the number of players on the wagon. Actually I did adjust that for both the Oversoul and Andrew lynches down from where the numbers came in.
2. The Cop result isn't relevant. Scum are going to 'hop' on a Cop result to position themselves on the wagon when they know their partner is busted.
3. No, my VCA is based on 8 total scum. I expect that their is a Non-Mafia scumbag or two of some flavor out there.
4. Yes, making assessments and judgements that lead to a pool of suspects isn't Analysis at all

Any other incorrect points you want to lob my way?

[ZeL1nK]

1. Actually the number expected wagons is based on a raw percentage of scum expect left multiplied by the number of players on the wagon.

This is a complicated way of saying "I assumed a 50/50 split".

2. The Cop result isn't relevant. Scum are going to 'hop' on a Cop result to position themselves on the wagon when they know their partner is busted.

This is exactly why a cop result skews things. You can't assume any sort of split when scum is 'busted'.

The same thing happened with Oversoul's fake-claim actually.

3. No, my VCA is based on 8 total scum. I expect that their is a Non-Mafia scumbag or two of some flavor out there.

Then, presumably, you've factored this into your VCA, because those 1 or 2 non-mafia scumbags would not know who the other scum are, right? Therefore a predicted 50/50 split makes no sense.

4. Yes, making assessments and judgements that lead to a pool of suspects isn't Analysis at all

...

Yeah....

You know exactly what my problems with your "analysis" are. You're not stupid enough to believe that this "raw data" has more meaning than, say, analysing the Vifam-Junpei wagon that popped up D1, or analysing the reasons people were voting or analysing the differences in votecounts from the same day, or like... you know... doing a real VCA.

If I wasn't extremely lazy, I'd do my own. But I am. So I won't.

[David Xanatos]

So you've done no analysis, admit to not reading, and yet hammered.. depriving us of more information, reads and opinions..

Smart. -_-

[ZeL1nK]

Yes.

[ZeL1nK]

Hey David.

There's 111 pages.

If you don't already have enough information, then there's something wrong with you.

If you need more information, we can continue this discussion tomorrow if you promise not to NK me.

[MagnaofIllusion]

This is exactly why a cop result skews things. You can't assume any sort of split when scum is 'busted'.

The same thing happened with Oversoul's fake-claim actually.

Actually you can. Unless you are in a lynch or lose scenario scum are going to place their votes in a way that spreads them around to generally conform to the relative population as a whole. It's human nature. Can scum specifically go out of their way to vote in a manner to fluster this kind of distribution? Yes its possible. But I don't think most scum players spend their time going "Hmmmm ... how can I vote to best screw with VCAs that may or may not happen".

This sort of VCA has worked and worked well many prior times. You don't buy it? Ok.

Then, presumably, you've factored this into your VCA, because those 1 or 2 non-mafia scumbags would not know who the other scum are, right? Therefore a predicted 50/50 split makes no sense.

Actually it does. That's the point. It isn't about coordinated behavior in general. It's about the psychology of people and their propensity to act in predictable manners.

You know exactly what my problems with your "analysis" are. You're not stupid enough to believe that this "raw data" has more meaning than, say, analysing the Vifam-Junpei wagon that popped up D1, or analysing the reasons people were voting or analysing the differences in votecounts from the same day, or like... you know... doing a real VCA.

If I wasn't extremely lazy, I'd do my own. But I am. So I won't.

Yeah I know your 'problems'. I just don't really care whether you have them or not. This has worked and will continue to work for me.

Regarding the Junpei-Vifam wagon? That's relational scum-hunting. If I wanted to do that I would.

Yes ... please continue to do nothing to actually hunt scum ... it's like you are Parama or a weak Parama clone.

[David Xanatos]

Oh? 111 pages of people's stances/thoughtsreads now that CB's exploded and Shotty's degraded into vague babble of about forty gambits imploding?

Preventing people from giving reads only helps Scum. Hell, Shotty's claimed JK on Silver, which I'd like to see his reaction to. I personally don't believe it, but a reaction would have been useful as an indicator of Silver's stance.

[Banshee]

-Nero

We lynch scumShotty today and tomorrow we lynch scumSilver.

vote:Shotty

You are really going to forget about peregrine?

---
I'm willing for either of the two.

Putting aside the whole thing with the VCA and whatever weird OMGUS in both directions is going on with Nero and Silver, I want to remember this deflection and point it out for the morning just in case.

Also, I don't think ZeL1nK can be scum since he's disputing a VCA that more or less clears him. I don't see why scum would do that.