Open 329: Mayo Clinic D3: Town WINS!

[whispersilk]

Man, you scum love trying to confuse shit, don't you?

[izakthegoomba]

It's just that you keep calling it random. If the vigs are choosing their targets from their pools, it IS NOT random.

I have no problem with that, but the use of the term just confuses things.

[GreyICE]

Here's the math:

Claims
2 Vigs
9 Doctors

D1>V1
D2>V2

D3>D4>D5>D6>D7>D8>D9

If vigs pick random non-self targets, they can shoot 10 targets. Of those 10, 2 will be protected by goons.

Scum shoot D1 or D2 (unless both are scum, unlikely).

Odds both Vigs shooting same player

:10%

(lets say we split players into two pools to avoid this nonsense)

Odds of Vig shooting player protected by goon:

20%
1.

Odds both vigs shoot town protected (with two pools):

62% -

One dead townie (D1 or D2)

, two confirmed doctors
2.

Odds vigs shoot one scum:

36% -

Two dead townies

, one goon, one doctor,
3.

Odds both vigs shoot a goon protect:

2% -

Three dead townies

, two conf goons

Scenario One

D1 dead,
D8+D9 conf DOCTOR.

Lynch D2.

Circle protect:
D8+D9 on vigs
D3 on D8
D4 on D9
D5>D6>D7>D5

Pools:

V1:

D8, D5, D6

V2:

D9, D7

2 goons in 5.
j. Two Goons in V1: 30%
k. Split Evenly: 60%
l. Two Goons in V2: 10%

1j Odds:

V1: 66% hit Scum, V2: 0% chance (66% 1 scum, 0% two)

1k Odds:

V1: 33% scum, V2: 50% scum, composite gives: {0 scum: 33%; 1 scum: 50% Two scum: 17% }

1l Odds:

V2: 100% chance to hit scum.

Composite
0 scum: p(j)*p(0)+p(k)*p(0)+p(l)*p(0) = 0.3*0.33+0.6*0.33+0.1*0 = 30% [

SCENARIO 1A

]
1 scum: p(j)*p(1)+p(k)*p(1)+p(l)*p(1) = 0.3*0.66+0.6*0.50+0.1*1.0= 60% [

SCENARIO 1B

]
2 scum: p(j)*p(1)+p(k)*p(1)+p(l)*p(1) = 0.3*0+0.6*0.17+0.1*0= 10% [

SCENARIO 1C

]

Scenario 1A (9 Living)

D8/D9 dies

D7,D6 conf town.

D3 OR D4 confirmed scum.
{D3,D4}/D5 one scum/one town

Lynch {D3,D4} (Conf. Scum)
Double kill {D3,D4} (Non-Conf)

{Goto 1Ai, 1Aii}

Scenario 1B (8 Living)

D3 dies
D7, D6, One confirmed scum, one town
D4,D5 One scum

Lynch D7
D6,D8,D9 Confirmed

At this point if Mafia doctor is in D6,D8,D9 he'll start covering for goons, so just do it:
D4>D6
D5>D8
D6>V2
D8>D9
D9>V1

Or somesuch.

D6 and D8 should be the scummiest doctors in the conf. doctors since scum can freely shoot them.

1Bi - D4 scum
1Bii - D4 town

Scenario 1C

Lynch D8, Vig D9.

Night action plan: Everyone protects vigs, split evenly, vigs clean up until Mafia doctor dies.

=============================================================================

1Ai (6 living)

{D3,D4} = Town
D5 = Confirmed scum Lynch D5

Living 3 doctors: D6, D7, D8/9, 2 Vigs


How to win:
V1: Kill D6
V2: Kill D7

D6: Protect V1
D7: Protect V2
D8/D9: Protect V1 or V2

Assumptions: Mafia doctor might protect town, but can't self protect,

so living means conf. town.

Vigs can't die unless D6 or D7 is scum, win.

1Aii (6 living)

{D3,D4} Died, flipped scum

Living: 1 MD, 3 doctor, 2 vigs

Answer: No Lynch.

Doctors double up on vigs, vigs kill 2 doctors per night. Guaranteed win.

1Bi (6 living)

1 Goon, 1 MD, 2 Doctors, 2 Vig

D5 = Confirmed Goon, lynch, see 1Ai endgame

1Bii (6 living)

See 1Aii (1 MD, 3 doctors, 2 vigs)

Okay, lemme check scenario 2 now. Three is autowin, it boils down to:

1) Kill all goons
2) All doctors protect vigs
3) Lynch if number of living players is odd
4) Vigs kill doctors 2 by 2 until they are last alive, town no lynches every time.

[whispersilk]

LOL, you soooooo badly don't want the town to follow the plan of win.

Again, there are only 7 max possible vig targets on night 1, NOT 10. This decreases the next two nights. What part of the math are you confused about now?

[GreyICE]

Scenario 2:

Possibility vig death now in the picture. Vig death makes shit complicated.

Suggestions: No vigging other vigs. Leave D3/D4 unprotected, that's bad enough. Let scum use their kill to out their own buddy.

Anyway, assuming doctor death:

Lynch confirmed goon.

4 doctors, 2 vigs, 1 goons, 1 MD.

3 Doctors on V1
3 Doctors on V2

Kill 2 players a night. Survivor = Goon
Loss highly unlikely.

Scenario 3

Lynch 1, vig 1, 50/50 on vigs, kill all doctors 2 by 2.


Thoughts: NO VIG TARGETS ON NIGHT 1. PERIOD.

After that, target vigs if needed. 2 vigs are needed for so many endgame scenarios. After N1, mafia has to play suboptimally to kill a vig. With no vig shots into vigs N1 they have to out their own scumbuddy and use a kill on a vig, which is pretty powerful.


Assume: V1 dies
V2 has confirmed doctor (or confirmed goon)

Lynch confirmed scum (or 2)
Scenario now is:
5 doctors, 1 goon, 1 MD, 1 Vig
(one confirmed doctor)

Confirmed doctor protects vig (vig death = mafia doctor).

If goon, put 2 doctors on Vig, but that's easier since there's going to be less scum.

If mafia doctor, you have to legit scumhunt, this thing breaks down, but if Mafia doctor is dead, then we're good.


Thoughts: dead vig is only scenario where scumhunting gets involved, so it's fairly mechanical if neil is SK from here on forward.

Whispersilk's plan is fine, I volunteer to be unprotected.

It's fairly straightforward from here.

[GreyICE]

LOL, you soooooo badly don't want the town to follow the plan of win.

Again, there are only 7 max possible vig targets on night 1, NOT 10. This decreases the next two nights. What part of the math are you confused about now?

You suck at math in general.

Odds are for individual players being scum. Obviously being outside vig targets does not remove possibility of player being scum. DUH. Fucking dumbass.

[whispersilk]

The only two players outside of vig targets are me, and now you apparently, although I wanted another player that I thought was town, and you sure as hell don't come off as town. This leaves 7 in the pool, not 10. Confirmed docs are treated as confirmed town until both goons are found. Then the vigs kill everyone else. Winwin.

One of us is really confused here, and I don't think it's me. Although math is my worst subject, I do think I can count to ten.

[glowball]

NO. WHISPER AND MYSELF(GLOWBALL) ARE BEING LEFT UNPROTECTED. GREYICE YOUR IN SERIOUS QUESTION AND WORKED HEAVILY AGAINST THIS PLAN-- YOU WILL BE IN THE DOC POOL, DEAL WITH THAT. Now that you have agreed with the plan there is no reason to go against it, putting yourself in charge of the vigs is suspect the plan will go forward as originally intended.

WHISPER--- Stop posting here and work on a plan for if Neil flips Goon. Seriously. You've obviously had time.

[whispersilk]

kk, I'm working on it.

Also, we really need both vigs and everyone else to agree to this. Most of the town haven't even read the plan yet.

[Maruchan]

I haven't read it.

I read the name I am supposed to protect

I said OK

I am an Indian not a chief so idgaf

[glowball]

The world needs followers, the world needs Maruchan. <3

[Maruchan]

If I was a vig, I would actually be reading these plans and commenting. Or if I was neil.

but im a doc so it really doesn't matter much to me. ell me if I am supposed to doc randomly or doc someone specific and I will be happy.

[Maruchan]

WAIT one input from me

@Whoever said the vigs shout NOT vig their scummiest read to confirm doctors, they still should.

Because unless the person DOCCING your target is a scum-read, you should be safe. Interesting piece of strategy.


So yeah.

[Maruchan]

owait I think I just saw a failure in my idea.

SEE THIS IS WHY I FOLLOW!!!!

[PiggyGal15]

If the vigs really want to confirm Grey as scum, hit his target one random night, and if that goes through, bam, Grey is now confirmed scum. If not, he's just a doctor. Or he's the mafia doc, and we'll deal with that... or, wait, if we really all want him dead, instead of two vigs on him tonight, why can't we just lynch him tomorrow? Then we'll know for sure. (of course, that's all if Niel is the SK)

[GreyICE]

Meh, the night action plan above gives probably 80%+ odds of town success. Whispersilk is pretty dead on. I thought there were a few hangups, but that plan, if Neil is the SK, wins us the game.

If Neils is scum, well, we're actually worse off, but only slightly.

[BBmolla]

Okay just read Whisper's plan all the way through.

Liking it. Let's do it.

Is Neil at L-1? And are we ready to go into the night phase?

[whispersilk]

Nooooooo. Let me finish typing up the alternate plan in case he is not the SK.

[BBmolla]

Nooooooo. Let me finish typing up the alternate plan in case he is not the SK.

k

[Quaroath]

For what it's worth I'm gung ho plan ho, and ready to rock someones world.

[Thomith]

The only thing i am worried about targeting greys protect is that the mafia could easily target greys protect every night untill they die, (assuming grey is town) to frame grey.
If grey is scum the scum doc could protect greys target in hopes the vigs will get a "clear" out of grey (assuming grey is scum)

[Maruchan]

And if they do doc his target and then the mafia shoot the mafia doctor's target, we think we have a confirmTown goon, we rid ourselves of Mafia Doctor, and the vigs still have free reign to shoot each other to see if the person on them is really on the,

[Thomith]

so your saying the mafia would sacrifice their doctor?

[Maruchan]

No I am saying the mafia doctor will be on the mafia doctor's assigned target to save his own ass, and tell the mafia goon's they are SOL if the Vig targets their assigned target.

[GreyICE]

Clears don't matter because we're just hunting for goons.

If mafia decides to 'clear' goon over 'clearing' doctor and loses doctor game becomes SUPER easy super quickly