Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Llamarble]

I use meta mostly to check if player X can fake their degree of townness in the current game I'm playing.
Bvoigt can. Thomith can too.

[Banshee]

Why would ANYONE want to fake the degree of townness Thomith has demonstrated in this game?

[hiphop]

Why would ANYONE want to fake the degree of townness Thomith has demonstrated in this game?

I really do not see how you see the above.

Weird -I have never heard of an encryptor before, and had to wiki it, to even know what it was. Also, I do not think I am the most experienced, llama, and Elli have both played more games than I. To answer the question though, no, I don't know if the encryptor role is considered normal. This is only my third(fourth maybe) normal mini, and 6th normal overall.

[Rainbowdash]

unvote
Vote WV

Can we just lynch one of these ponies already?

Im going to re-side the the part of me that says im being paranoid about Thomith. This may also be the part of me that wants Thomith to flip town due to pride reasons.

[weirdvoigts]

Why would ANYONE want to fake the degree of townness Thomith has demonstrated in this game?

I really do not see how you see the above.

Weird -I have never heard of an encryptor before, and had to wiki it, to even know what it was. Also, I do not think I am the most experienced, llama, and Elli have both played more games than I. To answer the question though, no, I don't know if the encryptor role is considered normal. This is only my third(fourth maybe) normal mini, and 6th normal overall.

Dangit.

I'll explain my little gambit here.

There was no theory.
I knew that Mafia Encryptor was a non-normal role.
You thought that Rainbowdash was an Elite Bodyguard.
You knew that Elite Bodyguard was Non-Normal.
There's no reason to fake this as scum.
If you knew that Encryptor was non-normal, then you would have known that Elite Bodyguard was not possible, more or less confirming him as town.

Make sense?

Brings up one thing though. How did you know that Elite Bodyguard was non-normal if know so little about normal games?

~Wierdalexv

[hiphop]

Bodyguard

I read it so many times since I realized that Rainbow was a bodyguard(believing she was elite)

It says on the bottom of the first segment

This version of Bodyguard, and only this version of Bodyguard, is considered [[Normal]] on mafiascum.net.

talking about the normal version, which would mean the elite version is non-normal.

However in one of the mini's that I did play, there was an elite bodyguard, and Rainbow's comment that mafia would die with her, made me assume that she was too.

[Llamarble]

:ticktock:
I don't find Thomith scum unbelievable, but right now I just want WV to die.
I think if there is a PR scum then scum will shoot at VTs (assuming we protect Implosion) to avoid making it obvious which PR is scum.
So using one or two protections on VTs is an interesting option.

[Rainbowdash]

Llama, are you scum? You are making me think you are scum again. Protecting a VT is a horrible idea. Very horrible. I would be thrilled seeing anypony flip VT after a NK.

Plus my gut as been going "Hey! Hey Dash! Llama is town for reasons you can't put a good finger on. Look closely, his votes do line up with what scum might have done, especially near the end of the day. Why aren't you pushing him instead of TweedleDee and TweedleDerp? You should vote him. Do it. Do it now. Stop being suckered by WIFOM, do it."

[Evil Bullet]

unvote, vote: Llamarble

Suddenly I feel like I could get some support.

[Llamarble]

If there's a scum in the PRs, we want the scum shooting the other PRs to narrow it down / possibly get caught.
I therefore expect them to not do that.
My vote was on EB near the end of the day because YOU counterclaimed him AND he hammered a townread and other notable stuff I don't recall too well.
You probably think I'm town because I'm trying to figure out who scum are / stomping around pushing on things. This is a good reason.

[Banshee]

As I see it we have probably two and possibly three scum left.

I'm making these assumptions that are NOT proven to be facts but appear most likely:

• 1. There is only one scum group.
  2. Beck shot Sleuth.
  3. There is at least one scum powerrole remaining.

We have four claimed town powerroles, one of which is confirmed:

• Implosion: Innocent child
  Rainbowdash: Bodyguard
  Evil Bullet: Even-Night Jailkeeper
  Hiphop: Watcher

We have six claimed Vanilla townies:

• Ellibereth
  Banshee
  Neruz
  Llamarble
  Thomith
  Weirdvoigts
  

We can be sure that Implosion is being truthful. That leaves three powerroles, all of which are protective. We also had an odd-night vig.

I do not believe Rainbowdash is scum. I could be wrong, but that just doesn't seem likely to me. So if scum is hiding in the powerroles, it's between Evil Bullet and Hiphop in my opinion. If Evil Bullet is scum, he is an even-night role and will be able to do something to someone tonight. I suspect if he is scum he's a scum roleblocker; scum jailkeeper doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

If Hiphop is a scum Watcher then there's a third scum power role. Encryptor and watcher isn't enough power to counter the town's level of power in my opinion. I don't see any way both of those could be town given the confirmed odd night vig and innocent child.

So, we can take a chance and lynch between Hiphop and Evil Bullet and have roughly a fifty-fifty chance (in my opinion) and much better info for tomorrow.

The other alternative is to lynch one of the claimed VTs, and it's likely that at least one scum and possibly two are there. I am going to leave myself in this analysis even though I know my alignment because it's not been confirmed to the rest of the town and it's harder to read if I don't include us all.

Ellibereth - I think Elli is town based on his reactions after VoidedMafia was lynched but before his cardflip. Elli kept pushing that VM was town even when it was too late; I don't think scum does that.

Banshee - I'm not objective on myself, so not making a case here.

Thomith - When people were discussing lynching WeirdVoigts instead of Thomith, smart scum would have shut up and let the attention die down. Llamarble argues that Thomith is smart enough to play horribly badly, to demonstrate numerous scumtells, and ... why would this be a good idea for scum OR town? On the other side, Thomith tried to reframe arguments from both Llamarble and me and to twist words in a way that seems outrageously scummy. Smart scum wouldn't do that, since it's one of the most obvious scummy things you can do. So no, Llamarble, you can't have it both ways; regardless of his alignment, Thomith has consistently been under suspicion and that's not a hallmark of clever scum.

Llamarble - I don't know. I was pretty sure he was scum earlier. Then he started arguing with me in a way I definitely associate with town. I dunno. I'm going to put this at null. I don't like the sudden recent backhanded suspicion at Rainbow given his past play; that, to me, is the scummiest thing he's done lately since the reasoning he gave was reasoning that should have existed throughout the game, not just suddenly when he decided to bring it up.

WeirdVoigts - I could vote WV; he seems to be pretty conciliatory, pretty much only responding when he's being pressured. THIS is how I would think smart scum would play.

Neruz - Some hypocrisy but I'm really going to say I think that the not knowing Beck was dead thing is pretty compelling evidence that he's town. Unfortunately the "I'm so stupid" thing he did after that made me think it was a gambit. "Notice, please, that I was too dumb to even know Beck was dead!" Trying too hard to ensure full cred for something I would have tried to pretend didn't happen. Meh, I don't like this.

For me, I could vote Evil Bullet or Hiphop (with preference to lynching EB who makes a lot of statements and rarely supports them, and who flies under the radar as much as possible without earning a prod). The recent "I'm not going to go along with anyone else's plan for my jailkeeping" seems to me to be a preemptive explanation for a town power role death tomorrow.

If we go the other way, I could vote Neruz or WeirdVoigts.

So, for now I'm going to:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Evil Bullet

But I'm willing to move that vote to Hiphop, WeirdVoigts or Neruz in order to come to a consensus.

[Thomith]

You don't think that was enough time to change his mind, or simply forget about it as town?

Last time someone contradicted themselves like that they were scum, and that was just the most recent time i have seen it, i have seen it in other games (off site) before.
If you don't want someone lynch you don't in the same post say they are the best lynch for today.

What EB just did seems to be searching for a wagon without making it obvious, voting llama which many people have voiced suspicion on then the vote seems like he is voting before the wagon forms so he can blame someone else if the lynch is town/ take credit if the lynch is scum.

[Llamarble]

My recent Rainbow suspicion came up when I was looking at Beck to see who might've killed him and Rainbow made some sense because of their interaction.
I do think Rainbow is town though.
If anything suddenly bringing up old things should show I'm still looking through the whole game trying to figure stuff out.

[Banshee]

Rainbow - I need to not let this one coast because

the ponies are all very good at playing scum

. Also would explain the Beckkill well.

This bolded portion specifically is what I mean; you commented it once before on the same page. If this is meta knowledge for you in general, you should have been aware of it throughout the game yet during Day One there's no hint of this awareness and you basically follow Rainbow as does most everyone else.

When did you determine that the ponies are all very good at playing scum? Why didn't that occur to you previously?

[Llamarble]

I've certainly been aware that ponies are good scum throughout; it was relevant at this time because I was reminding myself to be wary / periodically reread them.

[Banshee]

Okay. Did a quick reread; I'm acknowledging that I have read Llamarble's explanation and it has not made him towner to me but it has not made him scummier either.

However, I need to add that I am willing to vote Thomith as well. I'm less certain he's scum (but he very well could be -- there's no such thing as too scummy to be scum) but I think it would give a lot of information either way he flips.

[Banshee]

guys just lynch voided. Like really. I know I've got this one. Tomorrow we can bother with all the potential partners but like this is a free easy scum lynch being presented to us and nobody wants to join.

I mean just look at the deselby wagon for instance. Got to L-2 in like a couple hours. Thom lynch went up just as quickly. Hiphop lynch went up in votes real quick. We clearly have a scum team that's ready and willing to push for mislynches.

(which reminds me, I'll have to do my own VCA) and yet I've been pushing for Voided for a while now and there's not a single opportunistic vote on him. Can I get some Elements of Harmony back up please? Even trial members, I'll put in a good word for you up top if you want in, just get Voided lynched for me.

@EB: You posted this earlier in the game. Have your impressions of those wagons changed? Do you still feel they were mislynches as indicated in the bolded portion?

[Thomith]

Aren't scum wagons more likely to be harder to get the hammer on than town wagons?

[Banshee]

Aren't scum wagons more likely to be harder to get the hammer on than town wagons?

It varies. What are you trying to figure out with this question?

[Ellibereth]

why the fuck is this still going on...
Okay
I'll start reading from where I left off after I finish this writing thing, school starts etc. and we really just need to agree on someone to kill..

Just to make it easy and clear, screw discussion, who is everybody willing to lynch?

[Ellibereth]

Clear for me:

TOWN
Banshee
Rainbow
Imp
Llama
Elli
bullet* (This one I'm nervous about...but still up here so yeah)

PEOPLE LEFT
hip
neruz
thom
wierd

[Banshee]

I am willing to lynch:

Evil Bullet
Hiphop
Neruz
WeirdVoigts
Thomith

(in rough order of preference)

[implosion]

Banshee.

Suppose that all PRs claimed are real, except one of hiphop/EB is a scum version of that power role.
Hiphop fake: scum watcher+encryptor VS IC+BG+even-JK+odd-vig. Doesn't that seem balanced? scum can find the bodyguard or jailkeeper by watching the innocent child, the bodyguard can only stop one kill, the JK can only work on one night. The town has almost no investigative power.
EB fake: scum even-JK+encryptor VS IC+BG+odd-vig+watcher. Doesn't this, if anything, seem town-favored? The scum get almost zero utility from their jailkeeper. It's only useful against the watcher and can be caught by the watcher, and to a lesser extent the bodyguard. Meanwhile, to kill the innocent child if nothing else has claimed, scum essentially have to sack a member without knowing it. I mean, a scum roleblocker would make slightly more sense, but still, putting it in in such a way that it can do nothing against the vigilante is kind of mean.

[Llamarble]

Yeah, if IC claims D1 with a town watcher and BG, and scum try to kill the IC they will fail and lose a guy, then potentially fail again and lose another guy if the watcher played well & lynched the NKing scum without claiming.

[Llamarble]

Er they wouldn't fail a second time, but they'd lose 2 scum killing off the IC + BG.
Not to mention the odd night vig may be our strongest PR overall.

Maybe we should just lynch hiphop today...