Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Neruz]

Actually after some more thought, Llama

did

push the hiphop lynch pretty damn hard and also announced that he was going to push a WV lynch if hiphop flipped scum. I could absolutely see scum wanting to take Llama out of the picture because he was fairly instrumental in the hiphop lynch, i'd much rather lynch WV than Llama right now in light of the current situation.

[Llamarble]

I actually just went through the calculation and it looks like scum make out pretty much the same way killing vs nokilling.

I don't think town can really justify leaving me alive until lylo, but if I could stick around for a day and help with one more lynch I'd like that. Definitely I at least get to do final reads.

[Neruz]

Considering that both lynches have nailed scum, were i scum i would want to ensure town get as few lynches as possible.

[implosion]

VOTE: Llama

If by some miracle he flips town, rainbowdash should guard evil bullet so that he lives to night four. Evil bullet should say who they're jailkeeping on night four before night four starts.

There is no way in *HELL* that the scum didn't try to kill me/RD/EB after the mafia watcher flip; either llama is scum or there was a no-kill.

[implosion]

hiphop(L-2) - Beck, Evil Bullet, Implosion, Rainbowdash, Voidedmafia
VoidedMafia (L-1) - EvilBullet, Beck, Ellibereth, Sleuth, RainbowDash, Tomith
Neruz (L-1) -Thomith, Beck, Llamarble, Weirdvoights, Rainbowdash, EvilBullet <------ likely contains the unflipped scum
EvilBullet (L-1) - Thomith, Ellibereth, Neruz, Llamarble, Weirdvoights, RainbowDash <----- probably contains the unflipped scum
VoidedMafia (LYNCHED) - Sleuth, Banshee, Thomith, RainbowDash, Beck, EvilBullet, Weirdvoights,
Thomith (L-1) - Weirdvoights, hiphop, RainbowDash, Neruz, Llamarble
hiphop(LYNCH) - implosion, Llamarble, Banshee, RainbowDash, Neruz, WeirdVoights

[Neruz]

There's no way in hell scum would try to kill you because

there are two claimed protection roles in play

.

[implosion]

...one of whom is also semiconfirmed town and would die in my place and the other who was going to roleblock someone.

[Neruz]

Exactly, so why would they try and kill you? It's not actually

possible

to kill you.

[Neruz]

EBWOP: To clarify, there's no point in killing either you or RD at this juncture. Killing you will just kill RD instead and the scum don't really gain a whole lot from killing RD as rolewise she is pretty much guaranteed to target you every night, they don't have any reason to try and kill you yet because it's not even remotely close to lylo. While scum definitely don't want you alive going into lylo, having you alive right now isn't a disadvantage at all, doubly so because you're riding on your confirmed-townness and not really contributing a whole lot, making you a fairly low threat target.

EB is a more likely target and is the ovbious choice, but he's not very strong; he can only interfere with the scum every second night (and to be honest i don't think the possibility of EB scum should be

completely

discounted). As EB already claimed that he was planning on using his jailkeep offensively rather than defensively the scum run pretty much the same amount of risk not killing him as they do killing him, since if he jailkeeps the scum then they're roleblocked so it doesn't matter who they targeted, and if EB is jailkeeping his scumreads all scum need to do is look somewhere else.

Does all of this mean that Llama is town? Absolutely not, but he's nothing like as 'confirmed' scum as you all seem to think. There are legitimate reasons why the scum might have chosen to kill him, there are also legitimate reasons why he might be scum. Personally i feel that right now Llama is not our best lynch choice and would instead look to the people that Llama was a clear threat too; namely WV.

[Banshee]

I would prefer to lynch Thomith, but I readily admit I could be wrong about this.

My reasoning is this:

• Thomith definitely would have felt threatened by Llamarble during the last day.
  There are numerous NUMEROUS linkages between Thomith and both of the known scum.
  Thomith's behaviour about trying to save hiphop is not something I would expect smart scum EVER to do, which is why it seems fairly likely that Thomith-scum would do it.
  There's no such thing as too scummy for scum.
  Llamarble pushed hiphop's lynch when implosion was the only one voting him and most people were looking elsewhere, which is not something I expect scum to do.

I'm willing to vote for Llamarble just to cut through the WIFOM, but I do not want us to ignore Thomith until LYLO because I really think he's the last scum.

[Evil Bullet]

Better idea: Llama, if you by some bizarre instance of terrifyingly bad luck flip town, we'll unequivocally lynch who you want tomorrow.

[Banshee]

I'm going to vote Llamarble in about ten minutes. By my count that puts Llamarble at L-1 so I don't want any "accidental" hammers before he can tell us who to lynch tomorrow in the event he flips town, please.

[Banshee]

As promised:

VOTE: Llamarble

Should be L-1.

I notice that Thomith hasn't posted in this day yet. Please remember this if he shows up just to hammer and Llama flips town.

[Thomith]

well flip me my read was completely off on hiphop so i dont know how true my read on WV or EB is.

I MADE STUFF HAPPEN

making stuff happen doesn't make you town, i still dont see a reason scum would kill someone other than a PR unless all PR claims were scum, which i doubt.

However.

I am not hammering llama yet, i am not stupid enough just to come in go "OH HAI GUYS HAMMERVOTE: BAI" even if i am not that good at this game. Of course llama is not confirmed scum but it certainly makes him look bad, although i guess Neruz is right that there are legitimate reasons either way.

[Llamarble]

A reason for scum to nokill last night is:
A townie will probably get lynched today (unless they were the roleblock target in which case they were going down anyway)
Scum can take out rainbow, then nokill again the next night. Town will have to no-lynch, and then scum can kill EB in peace without generating any conftowns.

I think it works out the same as killing though; town gets to check on or lynch 4 people either way.

[Thomith]

Town will have to no-lynch,

Why would the town need to no lynch? if there are 2 scum left we can mislynch twice before lylo, or is there something i am missing

[Rainbowdash]

You ponies can't be this Derpy can you?

Either llama got blocked or scum no killed.

Llama did not get 'saved', no scum is going to kill a VT like that. There are three CONFIRMED town, kill going through creates another. That would end the game. Stop being derpy.

Llama is probably scum, as scum would have killed last night 100%. I cannot believe that any scum would have tried to start running this down all the way, since EB is a massive threat, and if he died last night they are in a good position where its about a 50% chance to win randomly.

Put yourselves in his hooves. You would have had to take the risk killing EB as either

1) EB died, no pony completely clear
2) I die, somepony clear, EB dies next night

Either situation, they reach a three player designer endgame likely with Elli and Banshee. In such a situation anypony would probably be behind, except somepony who was able to get massive town credit for taking out hiphop. Hiphop was dead as soon as we decided to lynch a PR, that was obvious, and the watcher is useless once massclaim happened. I would have done the exact same thing hiphop did here. Take down hiphop, try to kill EB, lynch out of the neruz/WV/thomith pool twice while killing the clear and implosion, hope the hiphop stuff takes him all the way in the endgame.

Its Llama probably, he made the right move yesterday but got unlucky.

D1 points to it
My gut on VM and the lurkers point to it
Putting myself in his hooves points to it
The JK points to it
Occamz Razor screams it

Somepony end the game.

[Thomith]

I want to hammer llama right now.

But my gut is stopping me.

I was so dang wrong about hiphop i am worried this is wrong again so i really don't want to hammer yet.

Also we ony have one confirmed town, you two are very likely town but not confirmed.

[Banshee]

I was waiting for Llamarble to have a chance to point at his suspicions as he said he wanted to do. Instead he made a plea for his life.

In his place I would not be doing that. I would be pointing out who I think is scum. Town wins even if they die, so his weird "Let me have one more day" thing is not townie. Town welcomes the chance to die if it helps town win, imo anyway.

Rainbow is right. Go ahead and hammer, Thomith.

[Llamarble]

Not wanting to be lynched today is more a pride thing than anything else.
I suppose I trust you guys not to screw up 1v6 with 2 conftowns.
I am pretty confident the last scum is Neruz or WV.
Elli and Banshee both read very town to me.
Thomith could be scum.

[Llamarble]

Weirdvoigts last posted on September 9th. How's THAT for an explanation of the nokill.

[Banshee]

UNVOTE:

Checking this WV thing for myself. BRB.

[Llamarble]

Actually Bvoigt was on during that time even if WV wasn't.

[Banshee]

bvoigt last posted Tuesday, September 13

wierdalexv last posted Tuesday, September 13

Llamarble is correct about weirdvoigts and September 9.

I'm not voting until I figure out what I think this means.

[Banshee]

Actually after some more thought, Llama

did

push the hiphop lynch pretty damn hard and also announced that he was going to push a WV lynch if hiphop flipped scum. I could absolutely see scum wanting to take Llama out of the picture because he was fairly instrumental in the hiphop lynch, i'd much rather lynch WV than Llama right now in light of the current situation.

I think this is where I am right now too. I don't trust my own scumdar (I sheeped Implosion yesterday because I am stuck on thinking Thomith is scum) but I really don't think Llamarble would have aggressively bussed his buddy yesterday when he didn't have to.

VOTE: weirdvoigts

Is it too soon to ask for a prod on WV?