Juls is either a bold faced LIAR, or I've been redirected. If it's the former it's a pretty stupid trade and I'm completely blown away if scum was prepared to trade 1-for-1 here. The only explanation I have for why Juls would even attempt such a gambit is if scum have the Redirector and claim that JULS was redirected to skew her Watcher result.
We haven't had the Role Cops outed just yet - maybe scum KNEW Juls was the Watcher through a Role-Cop investigation and KNEW she'd use it tonight because she already claimed to use her other actions on N1 and N2? That would be a really clever way to set someone up if scum have a Role-Cop/Redirector combo.
This is a shitty situation, and I don't expect to be believed at all, but something screwy is going on here. I'm town and even though I'm going to be lynched, at least let me post my final reads so you have something to work with when I'm gone. Give me a sec.
I wanted options to benefit the town if I'm targeted for the scum kill (Self doc, PGO), or if I'm not playing well enough to warrant the scum kill and there are other obv-townies (Bodyguard). I was realistic in the sense I wouldn't win all of my bids.
In post 608, Juls wrote:Tell me about your conversations with elli? Do you think she is town?
Elli was out town a lot, so we didn't get to talk much - we didn't even ever get around to claiming to each other. We shared mutual reads and discussed who we wanted to Neighbourise on N2 - we picked you obviously because we wanted to pick a mutual town read who wasn't too town they'd be killed, but would still be helpful to have a neighbourhood with. The value was kind of lost when Elli went away for a while.
I'm writing up my reads now, but I think Elli is in the neutralish section, which is by default scummy since we have so many obv-townies.
In post 611, Juls wrote:I have trouble figuring out why you thought I was town but went after me day one pretty hard. I never saw any indication that your read on me changed.
You explained yourself adequately after my early scumslip suspicion, but since then was very insightful - your call on Seraphim at the start of Day 3 was very good, and you offered a lot of well reasoned thoughts. Your role selections look pretty town too.
Okay, I've got some of my analysis out of the way. Will try and do more soon;
I suppose I shouldn't be surprised with the speed of the game given the playerlist - until this point I've just been rolling with it, trying to adapt as best as I can, rather than trying to fight it, but in all actuality, today is probably going to be another speedlynch. Once I'm gone, I'd at least like a few townies to step up and slow the game down and try to analyse the game in a deeper way. This game is rich with frantic, rushed lynches which is just dripping with information. Try and use it please.
We're getting to the point where we're developing a solid core of obvious and probable townies, so I think we can start doing PoE vote count analysis earlier than usual. For the sake of completeness, I'll give explanations for each of the players I've "cleared";
Reckoner
- Almost certainly town. His late entry into the game would have had to be a strange and creative scum gambit for it to be disbelieved. He's now been cleared by gandalf too, which even if gandalf is scum, it'd probably be wiser to claim an innocent on a townie than your buddy, as it's a greater risk of back-to-back lynches if one were to flip scum. I don't think scum would link themselves like this.
implosion
- Caught David, which although isn't conclusive evidence, you'd have to think he is highly likely town. The fact he picked two Trackers which is a largely useless scum role seems like a waste of points from that perspective.
gandalf
- Not town to the same degree as the other two, but the reasoning behind his role selection was pretty convincing. I also don't think scum would burn effectively half their points on Cop/Gunsmith when there is a whole slew of roles that can catch them.
Juls/Magister Ludi - probably town, but not to the same level as the other three, and for the sake of my vote count analysis, I won't green their name as there is still some slight doubt from my perspective. Still paranoid about a Juls-scum gambit.
~~
1) This was the Vote Count at the time when Maru used his Day-kill:
For the sake of completeness, I was on this wagon up until about 15 posts before this event happened. Knowing I am town though, it's striking to me that this entire wagon could only have one scum on it - I don't think that's a likely outcome. Maruchan served himself up on a silver platter, with what was effectively a "LYNCH ME" post. Although town was well within their rights, scum would have been licking their lips at such a cheap and easy vote.
We did have a lot of lurkers around at this point, which scum could easily fall within, but Parama and CES look very bad from this snapshot.
2) Final Vote Count of Day 1:
The vote count refreshed after Maruchan took his shot, and without individually analysing each vote in isolation, it's easy to lose context of what happened here. It would have been very easy to find reason to lynch Maruchan, and I think the majority of the people on his wagon are those who were just online, as opposed to a real representation of who wanted the lynch to happen. I wouldn't have been surprised if any of the other non-voters wanted to lynch Maruchan if they had been around. What's more interesting here is the small group of people who actively chose to defect. Knowing a town flip was on it's way, it would have been very tempting as scum to sit this one out knowing the lynch would go through anyhow.
Nocmen and Magister Ludi are both the standouts here, obviously with a preference for Nocmen. I'll try and talk more about the Maruchan wagon fallout later if I'm granted enough time.
3) Nocmen wagon early on Day 2:
This is an important wagon to look at, mostly because David was
opposed
to this one. Given the speed at which this wagon took off, it seems unrealistic that any other scum would defect from the Nocmen wagon. Note: Seraphim AND Katsuki were threatening hammers here. The key players here who skipped the reasonless Nocmen wagon were Magister Ludi and Vifam. Both of these players appear to fare quite well from this picture, however;
If Nocmen is town, there is at least two scum on the wagon, with a good chance of three since Elli was the only unconfirmed player not voting or threatening to vote Nocmen. So, for Nocmen to be town, three scum are here: CES, Zdenek, Juls, Parama, Katsuki, Ellibereth. For the sake of this exercise I'm not including me, but feel free to filter me in as a possibility for your own equation.
Now, if Nocmen is scum, we need two scum from same group of people; CES, Zdenek, Juls, Parama, Katsuki, Ellibereth.
This would be an important equation to consider - I have solid town reads on Zdenek and Juls, though I'm not ruling out the possibility of this being a Juls-scum gambit. It seems like we're cutting out a lot of possibilities if Nocmen is town. There aren't many possible 3-player scumteams from those set of players as far as I'm concerned. Nocmen being scum solves a lot of problems here.
There is a chance I'm wrong on Magister Ludi or Vifam, as both votes were earliest in the day when there wasn't the binary choice of choosing Nocmen/not choosing Nocmen, but I think Nocmen being scum is a likelier explanation than this one.
4) Seraphim wagon on Day 3.
The Sera wagon was powered through and I wouldn't be surprised if scum was off this wagon - there is no way all three would be on this wagon to its completion. CES, Vifam, Elli, Nocmen are these possible players, and I'm sure at least one is scum here, again with a preference for Nocmen. His connection with the other wagons just makes too much sense and connects too many pieces of the puzzle.
~~
Here are my reads in a sliding scale sort of order;
Town:
Reck
implosion
gandalf
Zdenek
(I agree with Seraphim here, that Zdenek/David interaction early looks too natural for it to be a scum/scum conversation. Scum would have to have been very canny to plan such a maneuver.
Magister Ludi
(Neighbouriser/White Mage pick looks like a pretty solid combination. If Juls is scum, then Ludi isn't, but if Juls is town then their partnership together is probably town/town)
Neutral:
Juls
(Thought she was pretty town, but I can't shake the possibility this is some epic scum gambit that's playing out that I can figure out)
Parama
(Strongman pick is kinda town the way he claimed it, but I'm not 100% sold)
Elli
(I want to believe he is town since he picked 3 neighbourisers, but he's done this before as scum, and I'm still paranoid about him. At times he gives me good vibes though)
Vifam
(hasn't done much, but is scummier than everyone above him and by PoE slightly scummy - it's what happens when everyone else is town)
CES
(same as above, though slightly scummier since chamber died with suspicion on CES)
Scummy:
Katsuki
(Done nothing, scummy opening post Day 2, PoE)
Nocmen
(explained mostly in my wagon analysis post. It makes too much sense)
In post 177, Parama wrote:FTR Nocmen: I am confirmed town because I have the strongman and I claimed it which means scum don't have the strongman. Now cease and desist.
This is why I am vooting Nocmen. Dunno about you guys but.
