Mini 1219 - Bedtime Stories Mafia - Game Over!

[Banshee]

I don't mind waiting if you guys are working on things.

If anyone wants something from me (a case on someone, or a defense of why I'm town, even) I can go ahead and do that. Just let me know what you want and I'll start working on it ASAP.

[implosion]

Certain things Banshee has said fall into a category of statements where either Banshee is "blatantly lying" or Banshee is town. Two examples: Banshee's supposed willingness to be lynched today and Banshee's saying that she will "haunt us" if we don't lynch Thomith if she dies. The question with regards to such statements is, does Banshee say them as scum?

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... er_sort=Go

Banshee scum meta. I don't see anything like the above statements, but i might have skimmed too much, and it

could

be because banshee (as far as i can tell) was never under really strong pressure. But something about her play in that game feels a bit different from her play here, too.

[Ellibereth]

yeah I'm still figuring shit out too
as a general reference on meta
use more games than 1
sample sizes too small different styles etc.

[implosion]

That was banshee's only completed, non-archived game, except for a game where she died before posting (i think).

[Banshee]

Sorry to be slow to comment on this, I was catching up on some much-needed sleep.

I'm an alt of a player who was active about two years ago, so Implosion is correct about that being my only completed game. Silverbullet (one of the players behind the Evil Bullet hydra) played that game with me and would be a better objective source of information on it. His vote is on me, I think, so he may not think there is a difference. I can't be objective, but I do think I demonstrated less willingness to put my own opinions on the line, a greater propensity to "allow myself to be persuaded" to lynch people other than my main target, and overall just a less honest attempt to figure out the game. But I can't be sure that anyone but me would be able to tell those differences.

I can answer questions about that game if you want, but I don't really know what they would be.

[Thomith]

Elli can you answer my previous question please, thanks.

[Ellibereth]

no

[Thomith]

Why?

[Ellibereth]

don't feel like it
not stop making me spam the thread up
aka I won't be replying to your crap anymore.
we have a while
work on your own shit instead of asking these stupid questions

[Banshee]

Ellibereth:

Do you consider Thomith a viable suspect?

I'm not considering EB as possible scum. Should I be, and why or why not?

(No hurry on these answers, I know that you're in the middle of things. Just, if you can get to them I'd be grateful.)

[Ellibereth]

yes
--------
I dunno yet, been considering him confirmed town since him being scum would be a baller gambit and all that.
probability etc.
if he's scum we're fucked.

[Neruz]

EB being scum wouldn't really make sense from a setup perspective either.

[Thomith]

EB being scum doesnt make sence as really there is no use and it would make scum overpowered giving them 3 powers.

[Banshee]

@Thomith:

What was the advantage of a no-kill last night from a scum perspective?

[Thomith]

tbh i dont see one other than to make the jailed look guilty, or to WIFOM us to make us think that.
(although most likely the former)

[Banshee]

@Thomith: Can you think of any other reason scum might not have killed last night?

[Thomith]

from the top of my head no, although if i think of any i will say them.

[Banshee]

This is why I don't think Thomith can be scum.

Why would scum have no-killed last night? Because they wanted to frame me, or

because I am the scum and I couldn't kill.

EB knows this second part, it's why he's got a vote on me. Elli and Neruz both know it, because they're considering me as a suspect. However, Thomith doesn't seem to consider that I could be scum.

As it happens, he's right, but he's not going about things right from a scum standpoint. Scum would ALWAYS allow for the possibility that I am scum and that's why there was a no-kill. Otherwise they would have lost a NK for almost no reason.

I was very certain Thomith was scum before. But I don't think that now. And I won't support his lynch because I simply don't believe scum would behave like that in regards to me.

[implosion]

EB being scum wouldn't really make sense from a setup perspective either.

Good job, you've just figured out what I've probably said about 5-10 different ways since day two .

With regards to who the scum is: still ellibereth. I don't see banshee as scum right now, and neruz is

probably

my second suspect.

[Banshee]

Why Neruz is scum and Ellibereth is town:

Early in the game, Neruz came under pressure because he showed confusion of motives by identifying someone as scummy while continuing to vote in the RVS phase. The reason this is scummy is not because random voting is scummy, but because town is paranoid. It's just a usual fact that town is paranoid and that if they see a scumtell they want to pressure it. Neruz argues that Thomith was already under enough pressure, but that's not the case at the time that Neruz identifies the scumtell, so he's confused either the facts or his own motives by looking back on them.

Neruz responded to that pressure by becoming insulting and rude to numerous people in the game. When the pressure let up, his playstyle changed. Throughout the game, when Neruz has been pressured he has responded with vitriol out of proportion to the offense, especially by calling others names (I did a funny post of all the names he called people) and basically shrieking until people stopped pressuring him. This seems like a scum tactic; town wouldn't be so committed to individual survival and certainly wouldn't attack more than half the town in this hysterical way when in fact town was doing very well for itself with two scum lynches in a row.

During endgame, where it's obvious you don't want to make anyone really mad because they might vote you (and this is doubly true for the one remaining scum) Neruz has once again changed his playstyle, behaving in a conciliatory manner, admitting to hypocrisy, and generally acting humble. He puts me and Elli on the same level but votes Elli since there's already a vote on Ellibereth while lining up a lynch on me with EB for tomorrow (and probably guaranteeing implosion's death tonight). His case on Elli is lurking; that's valid, but he's pushing a LURKER lynch tonight? He couches it almost like a policy lynch during the ending phases of the game: "i just cannot in good conscience let someone who's active lurked as hard as Elli make it to lylo". Why would town think a policy lynch was a good idea now?

Elli has lurked throughout the game and behaved in a generally unhelpful manner. He continues to behave exactly the same or even more abrasively now than he did earlier in the game. His explanation about how he sure does wish we wouldn't suspect him because it would be so much easier for him? WHY would scum EVER say something so ridiculous? How would that make it easier to lurk to victory?

Meh, I have read this game ENOUGH now and I've made my decision and I'm sticking with it and not second-guessing myself anymore. I may be wrong but I'm tired of being indecisive.

VOTE: Neruz

[Neruz]

Since when is town paranoid?

Scum

are paranoid.

[Thomith]

So you are paranoid and scum for thinking there are 3 CL's in the game then?

[Banshee]

I disagree. Why would scum be paranoid? They KNOW the town is out to get them, and they know who all the town are. TOWN don't know where the attack is coming from and are more likely to jump on a small scumtell as evidence for someone being scum. In my experience town is more likely to suspect others on less serious grounds, while scum are more likely to freak out under pressure on themselves.

It's possible we're defining paranoid differently. I define it as "seeing enemies everywhere, even where they do not actually exist." What is your definition?

[Banshee]

Obviously Neruz isn't going to agree with my above assessment whether it's right or wrong. But I would really welcome any criticism or corrections from anyone else, please. If I'm wrong I want to know it now, not after the game is over

[Thomith]

Scum can be more paranoid than you seem to think, although for different reasons to town, my first game as scum i was always paranoid that everyone who voted me had some kind of report on me though as scum i get paranoid that my town reads that are "obvtown" are scum.