Open 326: Pick Your Poison (Ende des Speils!)

[Tragedy]

In all likelihood, this isn't actually important since you're conftown. It just stood out.

Since when?

[Amrun]

Are you counterclaiming?

Come on now.

[Tragedy]

Are you counterclaiming?

Come on now.

I'm forgetting shit too, you know.

[thunderwielder]

Well, no one needs to counter claim since Mr. Trow hasn't claimed yet...

[Amrun]

What?

[thunderwielder]

What?

Just... trust me. I'm not crazy.

[Cephrir]

Given recent revelations, I'd say Mr. Trow is my top suspect

Cephrir gets scum points for sounding amazingly opportunistic here.

What? You claimed to have roleblocked him on a night there was no kill, and I was already suspicious of him...

Also, @everyone posting on page 44: Shut up.

[thunderwielder]

Okay, for the sake of talking (still waiting on a direct answer to my question, Mr. Trow--but until then)

I'm going to put out why I believe at least one of Tragedy and Mr. Trow are scum, if not both of them.

For one, they have never really looked at each other in a negative light, which could mean anything, but yeah.

If Mr. Trow and Tragedy are BOTH NOT scum this means that Amrun, Cephrir and Hoppster must be the three scummy people. I cannot believe this. There is no possible way that that is true.
If Mr. Trow and Tragedy are scum/town or town/scum, this means that out of Amrun, Cephrir and Hoppster, there are TWO scum there. Again, I have a really hard time believing this. I suppose it could be possible, but if it is, the scum certainly have me fooled right now.
If Mr. Trow and Tragedy are BOTH scum, it means that only one of Amrun, Cephrir and Hoppster are scum, which I can believe, but I can't figure out which one the scum would be yet. Other than if Tragedy is scum, there is no way for Amrun to be scum.

So my vote is going to go to one of Mr. Trow and Tragedy.
Now to consider a pros and cons list! (everyone cheers--How I met your mother reference)

With Mr. Trow,
we have 50% potential roleblock the first night.
Also, the "knowing there was a roleblocker" slip--which I will explain why that slip still matters after Mr. Trow answers my question

With Tragedy
we have the whole voting Amrun because her name came first alphabetically and now sticking obstinately to that vote
If Tragedy is our scum, and we lynch her, we can essentially clear Amrun and make things much easier for us.

This is my dilemma. Thoughts on these points? Which is a more compelling argument?

For me, I'm leaning towards Mr. Trow, regardless of the benefits of lynching Tragedy and getting a confirmo Amrun. I think the 50% chance is a good a chance as any we're going to get. I disagree with you Quilford--I agree that it's a possible scenario, but it's not necessarily the most likely scenario. I don't understand the decision to kill RoboThor, certainly not twice--unless they were determined to "finish what they started" so to speak. He was slowly not participating into nothingness. That being said, I think speculating on why the Mafia killed someone in the night is usually detrimental to the town's health. I'd rather go with a 50% roleblock rather than a "well, maybe this happened." We KNOW that Trow was roleblocked the first night. We have no idea who Saulres protected.

[thunderwielder]

More on Mr. Trow (after doing a brief ISO)

ISO #1 (post 378)
Points out a flaw in Maruchan’s playing, and then votes for Nobody Special for only inactivity. The votes were tied at that point, yet he chooses to vote for the player who is least likely to defend himself.

ISO 3 (post 669)
Makes a three point list of every player (as per request) and ends up voting Maruchan at the end. The largest wagon at that point as well.

In his first three posts, he jumps on the bandwagon twice, and lays down two opportunistic votes.

Okay, I’m simultaneously trying to do Tragedy and Mr. Trow

TRAGEDY point – the first post is really just bad. It really DOES seem like you were trying to lay down a vote just for the sake of “finding someone scummy”. But, then again, that could be just “try to find everyone scummy and see who’s the scummiest” sort of behaviour. I don’t know.

TRAGEDY – The Auckmind thing is null. It’s not telling in itself. If she had put him as scum, it would be weird, and if she had put him as town, it would be probably scummy, but the null aspect just indicates she didn’t know who she was replacing. Also, the QT point is invalid to support an automatic Tragedy point, because I was just reading through a game, and looking at the QT at the end some people didn’t use their forum names, but used nicknames. I think it might have actually been the game Tragedy just posted the link to, now that I think about it.

Oh, in other news, a MR. TROW point – Mr. Trow pushes a case on Maruchan, until Maruchan is no longer the leading wagon. Then he drops from the face of the earth again.
YUP. And doesn’t say a single thing until Lane is dead.

Then pops back up the next day and continues his tunnelling of Maruchan.
Strike that Tragedy vs Amrun business. I think we can safely say that we could almost clear Cephrir if Mr. Trow pops up scum. So there’s a trade off for either slot now.


Post 853 (TRAGEDY) is interesting because it’s her catchup on Trow – where she says “Trow, nice to see you again. I hate my role because it’s the same as ever.” I think this comment will be important later on down the line for drawing connections. It just sticks out to me, and I don’t know why. This is one of the only comments she made—but even saying that now, I understand the urge to connect with people you’ve played with before, hence my first three posts towards RoboThor.

Post 856 TRAGEDY POINT – This is something I didn’t catch before. When Hoppster asks her “why don’t you throw your vote down for Mothrax?” She responds with that she doesn’t want him quicklynched and that there are already two town players on the wagon (Hoppster, myselft). BUT, she hadn’t yet done her ISO analysis on me at that time, so how would she know I was a town unless she knew who all her scumpartners were?!

this is the biggest thing I’ve found against Tragedy thus far, in my opinion

now she’s back in the running against Trow for my vote.

Post 867 MR TROW – This is the first time he deviates from Maruchan. ISO #21. Just thought I’d note it.

There was the TRAGEDY point brought up about the “prodding Mothrax” right after the Mod had just said “prodding Mothrax.” Just thought I should write this down in summation.

Post 953 MR TROW AND TRAGEDY LINKAGE – Here Mr. Trow announces another L-1 unnanounced thing. But then says he’s not going to move his vote just on that alone, like he did the other time. Why move it for Maruchan, and then not move it for Tragedy?

Tragedy’s catcups near the end are pretty comprehensive, and she’s starting to look townie again. Or townier than Trow, really.


Oh, and I think I just found out why RoboThor was killed last night

I consider a mothrax (now deltaware)-flip as info on robothor because of these 2 instances of 'need to step in to save'.

This was about the link between RoboThor constantly saving Mothrax. A good point. But it means when Delta flipped town, there were more townie points for RoboThor. Interestingly enough, it was Mr. Trow who pointed this out.


And then, the only stuff left to add is the recent stuff. Where I find myself inclined for a Trow lynch over a Tragedy lynch.

In all likelihood, I think they are both Scum, but on the off chance that I’m wrong with that, I think Trow is more scum than Tragedy.

[Amrun]

Post 856 TRAGEDY POINT - This is something I didn't catch before. When Hoppster asks her "why don't you throw your vote down for Mothrax?" She responds with that she doesn't want him quicklynched and that there are already two town players on the wagon (Hoppster, myselft). BUT, she hadn't yet done her ISO analysis on me at that time, so how would she know I was a town unless she knew who all her scumpartners were?! this is the biggest thing I've found against Tragedy thus far, in my opinion now she's back in the running against Trow for my vote

Wow that's actually an excellent point.

I think I might be back on the lynchtragedy wagon for this.

What do you have to say about this, Tragedy?

Fixed clusterfuck of punctuation disappearing because it bugs me -- Mod

[Tragedy]

Post 856 TRAGEDY POINT - This is something I didn't catch before. When Hoppster asks her "why don't you throw your vote down for Mothrax?" She responds with that she doesn't want him quicklynched and that there are already two town players on the wagon (Hoppster, myselft). BUT, she hadn't yet done her ISO analysis on me at that time, so how would she know I was a town unless she knew who all her scumpartners were?! this is the biggest thing I've found against Tragedy thus far, in my opinion now she's back in the running against Trow for my vote

What do you have to say about this, Tragedy?

Heeehahaa.
I did read you, but didn't ISO you at the time.
Pretty time I did think you were town before I ISO'd you.
But lame role is still lame.

[Amrun]

What? That doesn't make sense.

[Tragedy]

What? That doesn't make sense.

Makes sense when I took forever to post everything.

[Amrun]

No, I mean that your post literally did not make sense and I don't know what you were trying to say.

[Tragedy]

No, I mean that your post literally did not make sense and I don't know what you were trying to say.

As in I skimmed thunder's posts and thought he was town before I actually went through posting and fully reading every single stuff he's been posting.
But if he's scum, well, we lost the game.

[Amrun]

So from an ISO skim, you were confident enough to base other reads off of thunder being town?

If thunder is scum, how have we lost the game?

[Tragedy]

So from an ISO skim, you were confident enough to base other reads off of thunder being town?

Other reads weren't based off of thunder being town. My judgements, you see.

If thunder is scum, how have we lost the game?

Since everyone thinks he's town by far, then you won't expect him to be lynched by the others anytime.

Lame.

[Amrun]

Your judgments?

[Tragedy]

Your judgments?

My reads.

[Amrun]

Right, you made judgments that other people were town or scum using thunder being town as a starting off point. That's exactly my point.

[Hoppster]

Was he?

Yes, he freaking was, from day 1, and that never changed.


Cephrir is town town town.

Tragedy... I'm wavering on. I can totally see scum motivation there - really, really can - scum worried about consistency, etc, but at the same time, something in my gut is twinging in the opposite direction.

I see nothing of Mr Trow to convince me he's not scum. Still will see blood there.

Hoppster is being useless and that's weird for him.

Quilford, why do you think you didn't block Trow successfully? Not really following.

you forgot to mention Thunderwielder?

Useless? :'(

So from an ISO skim, you were confident enough to base other reads off of thunder being town?

Other reads weren't based off of thunder being town. My judgements, you see.

Your judgments?

My reads.

You can't make this stuff up.

If Tragedy is our scum, and we lynch her, we can essentially clear Amrun and make things much easier for us.

I COULD NOT DISAGREE WITH THIS MORE VEHEMENTLY.

Amrun is looking pretty town in recent posts, but that play by Tragedy upon entering just SMACKS of scum-overeager-busbusbus "ohhey my scumbuddy is first up in ISOs what a great chance to distanceeeeee".

[Amrun]

oh, thunderweilder is probably town.

And you ARE kind of being useless right now. You're adrift, not knowing what to do after your tunnel target is no more.

[Cephrir]

Tragedy is still scum. Waiting on MrTrow with minimal patience.

[thunderwielder]

After the recent interactions, I'm leaning towards Tragedy now (again). But this might just be because Mr. Trow is AGAIN avoiding the thread.

But THIS

So from an ISO skim, you were confident enough to base other reads off of thunder being town?

Other reads weren't based off of thunder being town. My judgements, you see.

Your judgments?

My reads.

You can't make this stuff up.

Makes me laugh.
And I am drawing the same conclusions as Amrun right now.

If Tragedy is our scum, and we lynch her, we can essentially clear Amrun and make things much easier for us.

I COULD NOT DISAGREE WITH THIS MORE VEHEMENTLY.

Amrun is looking pretty town in recent posts, but that play by Tragedy upon entering just SMACKS of scum-overeager-busbusbus "ohhey my scumbuddy is first up in ISOs what a great chance to distanceeeeee".

I'll give you this for now. But you're being kind of useless--and perhaps this is making sure that an Amrun lynch can still happen if the scum team is Trow/Tragedy/Hoppster.
It MAY be a valid point, but now that your tunnel target is gone, you need to start pulling your weight and give me more reasons to believe you're townie--because my views on that are wavering from today. I wouldn't say you're scum yet, but I'd say you're working your way down to null.

[MrTrow]

sorry just had kind of a bad day (reread not yet finished, working on that)

But for sake of keeping things going:
@Thunderwielder, i thought i saw your 'answer',but seriously beginning to doubt it (by skimming last 2 pages)

Apearantly

@Quilford: no counter from me.

this wasn`t explicit enough.
So more explicitly: VT here.