Open 326: Pick Your Poison (Ende des Speils!)

[Cephrir]

If you thought it was obvious you knew there was a claimed roleblocker, why would you say thing like this?

How are you still keeping this up?
How do you know i`m not the roleblocker unless you`ve noticed the point (i attacked delta for 'assuming/knowing there was no roleblocker', if not this what gave you the 'he isn`t the roleblocker')

So either you have deduced i`m not the roleblocker by other means (if so please show me, using things prior to 1027 of course)
or you have read my motivation for the delta-slip argument and thus know the base for 'my slip' is incorrect. (in which case, why are you using it?)

[thunderwielder]

Exactly my point, Cephrir beat me to it. Quilford's claim is prior to 1027, so everything you've said is very moot, and quite scummy.

You were using the argument - oh, How do you know there's a roleblocker/I'm not the roleblocker - to discredit any case against you or any case going back to the potential slip which most people thought was a Delta slip and it turns out actually has a higher probability of being yours.

Let's review what happened.
In your own words this is the Delta slip situation

The case of 'my slip' is as follows:
- i point out delta assumes the roleblock will fail, conclude this may mean he knows there is no roleblocker
- then Quilford comes in and quotes the 'roleblock will fail' portion and concludes i`m talking about: the roleblocker will block the wrong person (how would i know there is a roleblocker)
- your #1013 notes this point and shelfs it due to the larger delta-case
- hoppster shows up and clears up quilford`s misread.
- after delta is lynched, you take this slip back from the shelf (even though the point is resolved)
in other words: why do you consider 'my slip' a valid point AFTER hoppster has already shattered the point

Right?
But Hoppster "shattering the point." goes as follows

Mr. Trow's "scumslip" is really not a scumslip at all - rather, HE is pointing out DELTAWAVE'S scumslip.

That's it.
That's all he says.

Which was fine, but now that Delta has flipped TOWN, it is very clear that you were not pointing out a scum slipping up like we initially most thought.

NOW
We know we HAVE a roleblocker, with 100% certainty.
Therefore any slips about us "knowing we Don't have a roleblocker" become invalid
and any potential slips about us "knowing we DO have a roleblocker" become valid again--especially since we're in Lylo and we need to mine any potential slips for all they're worth.
SO, this, combined with a 50% that you submitted the first kill (or your slot did anyway), gives me a high probability that you are perhaps the Droid we've been looking for.

What now

adds to this point,

is the fact that you were still trying to argue "how do you know I'm not the roleblocker" (when you're not the roleblocker) as your reasoning for making your "slip" rather than saying "I thought we had already established that the Mafia would be dumb to put in Doc/Cop" which is more of a townie thing to say. Instead, it seemed like you're leaving your options open, or maybe trying to strike delusion into some of the players (Tragedy, for example, apparently doesn't know someone came out and claimed, and could get confused--in a situation where you and her aren't partners).


[sincerity]PS Sorry for your bad day, I hope it gets better[/sincerity]

[thunderwielder]

@Quiford

POST MORE
A LOT MORE.

You're our only confirmo town. You need to be doing a lot more to help us decide who to lynch today, since we can all trust your opinion. I don't know who to trust anymore, and I want your feedback on the Mr. Trow and Tragedy situations. Which one of them do you envision to be more scum? Do you agree with me that one of them HAS to be a scum? If not, why do you have these reads? I know perhaps your internet is down, but we need your input.

[Cephrir]

I had a thought that I should be looking at which non-Trow and Tragedy players seem to be leaning towards which, because they're both so scummy I can hardly make head or tail of them. But thunderwielder and Amrun are waffling around just the way I am as our two suspects get scummier and scummier and seem to practically be competing for my vote. Quilford hasn't said much since he was cleared, and Hoppster is kind of fading into the background. The fact that no one except MAYBE me seems to have a strong preference one way or the other is making me suspect once again that thy're both scum and both pretty much giving up. I'm really close to just laying down a vote right now, but I suppose I'll hold off for input from Quilford and/or objections to me voting.

[thunderwielder]

I don't have objections to you voting. As long as you're around periodically to see if anyone jumps on for really dumb reasons. 1 vote does not a lynch make. It would be pretty hard for the scum to organize a quick lynch anyway, considering there's three of them, and everybody are in different time zones.

Hypothetical question, Cephrir, who would you vote for, if you had to vote right now?

Actually, that hypothetical question can be extended to everyone.

I would probably vote for Mr.Trow. But it's really a freaking tossup.

But yeah, hypothetical vote: Trow.

[thunderwielder]

EBWODP

In terms of Trow and Tragedy connections, right now I'm seeing Hoppster. He tunnelled on NS/Mothrax/Delta for three days, and now has nothing else to say. He also finds Trow null, and is not taking a stance on much, leaving himself open to switching. I don't know, I could be very offbase with this, because I've found Hoppster town for the whole game, but, like I said before, he's gone back in the null running.
My hypothetical vote still stays on Trow, though.

[Xalxe]

Votecount 4.1: The "And Now a Word From our Sponsors" Votecount

Not Voting (7): Amrun, MrTrow, Cephrir, Hoppster, Quilford, Tragedy, thunderwielder

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline:

October 14, 4:54am ((expired on 2011-10-14 04:54:00))

Nobody is in prod range.

Xalxe sank onto the lush hotel bed, provided by Le Meridien Munich with a comfortable Serta memory foam mattress. He sighed and placed his head in his hands, nicely displaying his Timex watch.

What am I going to do?

he thought.

Five people dead! That's not normal...is it?

He raced to the desk from Ikea and opened up his MacBook Pro (13", available at a new low price!). He opened up Mozilla Firefox, his browser of choice, and used Bing to search for "five dead on tour." Sadly, none of the tour guides featured in the CNN stories that came up had happy endings.

Sighing, he closed the MacBook Pro and leaned back in his chair. I don't know where the hotel got the chair, but I'm sure it was a very nice chair.

What am I to do?

he thought hopelessly.

Just then, his iPhone 4 rang.

[MrTrow]

Lets see if i got this right.

- thunder knew i was not the roleblocker in #1027 (where he acknoledges the possibility of a counterclaim), while i hadn`t posted yet since the claim (had no chance to counterclaim yet)
- i am to be considered to have scumslipped by pointing to what i considered to be a possible slip, which other townies (right?) have also considered a possible slip just because it turned out to be wrong.
to be more direct on this matter:

Someone is assuming RB-will fail: why, do you know we don`t have one?

Please read the entire line and tell me, where is the slip?

Quilford seemed to have only read half of it (which can be defended):
- replace-list-mod sees need to replace in due to high number of replacements needed (not sure how many are normally required but at that time 22 i believe) while not really that interested in playing
- roleblocker being drawn a lot more to remarks regarding roleblocker.

If i had to vote now: probably cephrir but wouldn`t be surprised if post reread it would be thunder (most of my notes on him were written when i had him as town)

[sincerity]PS Sorry for your bad day, I hope it gets better[/sincerity]

Thanks, i have a day off tomorrow, everything(including the reread) should be alright around then

[Amrun]

My hypothetical vote goes to Trow.

I would LOVE to hear more from Hoppster and especially Quilford.

[thunderwielder]

Lets see if i got this right.

- thunder knew i was not the roleblocker in #1027 (where he acknoledges the possibility of a counterclaim), while i hadn`t posted yet since the claim (had no chance to counterclaim yet)
- i am to be considered to have scumslipped by pointing to what i considered to be a possible slip, which other townies (right?) have also considered a possible slip just because it turned out to be wrong.

1) I knew that there was no reason for a scum to claim roleblocker, certainly not off the top. Unless they were to No Kill and then pre-emptively claim roleblocker in order to force a quick lynch before the real roleblocker could state the case--but that's the only situation where it seems like it could be beneficial. (Really, what's the scenario here? Does a Quilford scum really need to make a false claim, only to draw a counter claim from the real roleblocker and out himself? I don't think so.)
IE, yes, me calling for someone to counter claim was me hoping that there was a scum out there silly enough to do so, so we could catch one easily.
2) I am only now considering the comment as a slip, since the other slip turned out to be wrong and

more importantly

there's a 50% chance that you are scum (just based upon night actions alone), so I'm following up every lead I can and trying to see if there's scum motivation. I am not completely disregarding the fact that we were wrong about the other slip, but looking in to see if there's any value to the other side of the story. The defensiveness that is starting to present itself is making me think that there is value to the other side of the story.

If i had to vote now: probably cephrir but wouldn`t be surprised if post reread it would be thunder (most of my notes on him were written when i had him as town)

Oh my goodness, I don't know how much more OMGUS I can handle.
I've now started attacking you and trying to trap you, and now I'm magically on your suspicions list. For what reasons, pray? Hopefully for reasons other than I am your largest attacker right now... yeah, I can't see any other reasons either.

[thunderwielder]

Hypothetical votecount

Trow (2): Thunderwielder, Amrun
Cephrir (1): Trow

Not hypothetically voting: Cephrir, Hoppster, Quilford, Tragedy

With 7 hypothetical votes, it takes a lot of "this doesn't make any sense" to lynch.

PS Xalxe, great votecount.
PPS this post may or may not have been made just so I could tell Xalxe how much I enjoyed his flavour.

[Cephrir]

First of all Trow, we all read the entire sentence, and it still sounds wrong, and you might have gotten off the hook if Delta was scum but he wasn't.

When I mentioned potentially voting, I was thinking Tragedy. But damn, post 1107 is awful. Since when am I one of your suspects, Trow? You know what bugs me so much about his play? He never says who he suspects except when asked! These me/thunder suspicions came totally out of left field as far as I can tell. The thing is, Trow just ISN'T SCUMHUNTING. EVER. Following this realization, I have to say I would vote Trow at this point. Because even though I think Tragedy's suspicions make no sense and I think his entry was totally opportunistic, at least he's effing trying.

Actually, you know what? Screw it.

Vote: MrTrow

.

[Cephrir]

I should be able to be fairly active today, so I will keep an eye on the thread (PS, I'm invisible), but I don't think it will prove relevant.

[Hoppster]

If you thought it was obvious you knew there was a claimed roleblocker, why would you say thing like this?

How are you still keeping this up?
How do you know i`m not the roleblocker unless you`ve noticed the point (i attacked delta for 'assuming/knowing there was no roleblocker', if not this what gave you the 'he isn`t the roleblocker')

So either you have deduced i`m not the roleblocker by other means (if so please show me, using things prior to 1027 of course)
or you have read my motivation for the delta-slip argument and thus know the base for 'my slip' is incorrect. (in which case, why are you using it?)

these things are again related to the DeltaWave shenanigans if I'm not mistaken

which everybody but me (and MrTrow) continues to be wrong about

Let's review what happened.
In your own words this is the Delta slip situation

The case of 'my slip' is as follows:
- i point out delta assumes the roleblock will fail, conclude this may mean he knows there is no roleblocker
- then Quilford comes in and quotes the 'roleblock will fail' portion and concludes i`m talking about: the roleblocker will block the wrong person (how would i know there is a roleblocker)
- your #1013 notes this point and shelfs it due to the larger delta-case
- hoppster shows up and clears up quilford`s misread.
- after delta is lynched, you take this slip back from the shelf (even though the point is resolved)
in other words: why do you consider 'my slip' a valid point AFTER hoppster has already shattered the point

Right?
But Hoppster "shattering the point." goes as follows

Mr. Trow's "scumslip" is really not a scumslip at all - rather, HE is pointing out DELTAWAVE'S scumslip.

That's it.
That's all he says.

Which was fine, but now that Delta has flipped TOWN, it is very clear that you were not pointing out a scum slipping up like we initially most thought.

NOW
We know we HAVE a roleblocker, with 100% certainty.
Therefore any slips about us "knowing we Don't have a roleblocker" become invalid
and any potential slips about us "knowing we DO have a roleblocker" become valid again--especially since we're in Lylo and we need to mine any potential slips for all they're worth.

uhhhhhhhh

no.

my point is still 100% valid and correct.

MrTrow's "slip" remains 0% of a slip.

I only made one sentence because I assumed that it was

FUCKING OBVIOUS

.


DeltaWave assumed there would be no roleblock-success.

MrTrow goes "AHA, WHY DO YOU ASSUME THAT - PERHAPS YOU KNOW THERE IS NO ROLEBLOCKER?"

Everybody goes "LOL SCUMSLIP TROW YOU JUST ADMITTED WE HAVE A ROLEBLOCKER, DIE SCUM"


MrTrow is

not

scumslipping in any shape or form there. He is commenting on the hypothetical scenario in which there is no roleblocker - a hypothetical scenario alluded to by DeltaWave. MrTrow called out DeltaWave on this. That is NOT confirming the prescence of a roleblocker. It's anything BUT confirming the prescence of a roleblocker. If ANYTHING, it's a scumslip about NOT being a roleblocker (and it's not that either, it's not a scumslip, fullstop).

It turns out that, fine, DeltaWave wasn't scumslipping.

MrTrow's post is STILL NOT A SCUMSLIP.

My hypothetical vote goes to Trow.

I would LOVE to hear more from Hoppster and especially Quilford.

ohai?

Lets see if i got this right.

- thunder knew i was not the roleblocker in #1027 (where he acknoledges the possibility of a counterclaim), while i hadn`t posted yet since the claim (had no chance to counterclaim yet)
- i am to be considered to have scumslipped by pointing to what i considered to be a possible slip, which other townies (right?) have also considered a possible slip just because it turned out to be wrong.

1) I knew that there was no reason for a scum to claim roleblocker, certainly not off the top. Unless they were to No Kill and then pre-emptively claim roleblocker in order to force a quick lynch before the real roleblocker could state the case--but that's the only situation where it seems like it could be beneficial. (Really, what's the scenario here? Does a Quilford scum really need to make a false claim, only to draw a counter claim from the real roleblocker and out himself? I don't think so.)
IE, yes, me calling for someone to counter claim was me hoping that there was a scum out there silly enough to do so, so we could catch one easily.
2) I am only now considering the comment as a slip, since the other slip turned out to be wrong and

more importantly

there's a 50% chance that you are scum (just based upon night actions alone), so I'm following up every lead I can and trying to see if there's scum motivation. I am not completely disregarding the fact that we were wrong about the other slip, but looking in to see if there's any value to the other side of the story. The defensiveness that is starting to present itself is making me think that there is value to the other side of the story.

1) This isn't half as ridiculous as you're making it seem. Trading a non-contributing scum for a confirmed-town Roleblocker is a decent trade for scum at 4:3 lylo, as town remain in lylo the next day with the two stronger scum-members alive and no confirmed town alive. I'd do that.


2) Two attacks. One being incorrect does not make the other correct.



Cephrir, unvote. There is nothing pro-town that I can see coming off that. Not before we 'hypo-lynch' where we can lynch in a calm co-ordinated manner without fear of quickhammers.

FoS: Cephrir

Don't know who I would vote yet, still a bit clueless about that. Cephrir's vote isn't vote-able on that basis alone.

[Cephrir]

Oh, fine. I was getting impatient and was pissed off by Trow being dense, I suppose I wasn't being rational. There's no reason not to wait for a consensus except for my frustration. I don't agree with anything Trow-related you just said, but I don't have time to explain it right now, and since I have to rush off I should probably be unvoting anyways.

Unvote

, but I'm not happy about it. You really need to get a clue about this game though, you aren't helping and are totally wrong.

[Cephrir]

Someone is assuming RB-will fail: why, do you know we don`t have one?

Yes, obviously Trow's intent is to point out that he thinks DeltaWave has scumslipped. What I'm saying is that he may also have scumslipped in the process. Read the first part. "Someone is assuming RB will fail". This implies that he knows there IS one. A townie would have said 'Someone is assuming we don't have a roleblocker", not "someone is assuming the roleblocker will miss". The latter suggests the existence of a roleblocker, and when he said it yesterday, it could also have been a roleblocker-slip, which is sort of what thunder is saying- but now we know he isn't, so it's suspicious.

1) I knew that there was no reason for a scum to claim roleblocker, certainly not off the top. Unless they were to No Kill and then pre-emptively claim roleblocker in order to force a quick lynch before the real roleblocker could state the case--but that's the only situation where it seems like it could be beneficial. (Really, what's the scenario here? Does a Quilford scum really need to make a false claim, only to draw a counter claim from the real roleblocker and out himself? I don't think so.)
IE, yes, me calling for someone to counter claim was me hoping that there was a scum out there silly enough to do so, so we could catch one easily.
2) I am only now considering the comment as a slip, since the other slip turned out to be wrong and more importantly there's a 50% chance that you are scum (just based upon night actions alone), so I'm following up every lead I can and trying to see if there's scum motivation. I am not completely disregarding the fact that we were wrong about the other slip, but looking in to see if there's any value to the other side of the story. The defensiveness that is starting to present itself is making me think that there is value to the other side of the story.

1) This isn't half as ridiculous as you're making it seem. Trading a non-contributing scum for a confirmed-town Roleblocker is a decent trade for scum at 4:3 lylo, as town remain in lylo the next day with the two stronger scum-members alive and no confirmed town alive. I'd do that.

I think not. It makes sense when you talk about it as a general scenario but it would not happen in this game. So, you create a hypothetical scumteam here where Quilford is the least-townie member. But there were multiple players in way way way more danger of getting lynched than Quilford, who was nowhere near anyone's radar. If this was the case, Quilford wouldn't need to claim roleblocker, as scum would have won already. So yes, it isn't ridiculous when simplified the way you simplified it, but in context it is completely ridiculous.
Given this I no longer need to respond to point 2.

I really don't like the way you presented that post. Taking the situation out of context in order to defend Trow rubs me the wrong way. And also, you say I accomplished nothing pro-town by voting, but I didn't accomplish anything anti-town either. Trow already has three hypo-votes and Tragedy hadn't hypo-voted- do you think he's going to waste his vote on Amrun? Obviously, whether he's town or not, he's going to vote Trow. Plus, I'm town and I'm absolutely certain at least one of thunder and Amrun is town and quite likely both of them, so that's at least two town votes for Trow. I think you saw your scumteam going down in flames and thought attacking me was your only chance to save them.

I'm not revoting yet, but I'm doing it purely to give Quilford and, I guess, Tragedy a chance to lay down their hypovotes, which I'll let happen just for the information it might give us tomorrow. Congrats, though, you just became my third suspect.

[Quilford]

Scummiest to least scummy:
Cephrir
MrTrow
Amrun/Thunderwielder
Tragedy
Hoppster


Pretty sure Cephrir is bussing MrTrow after his "oh I wouldn't have voted otherwise but this just pushed me over the line" obligatory lylo vote:
"Actually, you know what? Screw it.

Vote: MrTrow."
and then his obligatory lylo "oh I know that was bad of me, sorry" unvote:
"Oh, fine. I was getting impatient and was pissed off by Trow being dense, I suppose I wasn't being rational. There's no reason not to wait for a consensus except for my frustration. [...]

Unvote, but I'm not happy about it."

and then his nice little slip about how he knows MrTrow is scum and is bussing him:
"I'm not revoting yet, but I'm doing it purely to give Quilford and, I guess, Tragedy a chance to lay down their hypovotes, which I'll let happen just for the information it might give us tomorrow."
Y'see that 'tomorrow' at the end of that sentence. Yep, someone knows how this day'll end.

[Cephrir]

I said 'might give us tomorrow'; as in 'will give us if there is a tomorrow'. That isn't a slip, bro. Excuse me for being a little fed up with the slow pace of this game, it feels like no one's trying except me.

[Quilford]

You were clearly talking about how we might gain information from it tomorrow.

[Cephrir]

Yes, if there is one. There's no way we can not gain information from it. Everything gives us information.

[Quilford]

You never said anything to indicate your uncertainty about the existence of tomorrow.

[Cephrir]

Do I need to? It's lylo.

[Quilford]

Yes; you're implying you know MrTrow is scum.

[Cephrir]

I am very certain that he's scum, but I never claimed to be 100% sure. Even if I was assuming there was a tomorrow, I might as well assume that, because otherwise we've lost... I really don't understand what the problem is.

[Amrun]

okay can we discuss this after trow is dead