Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[4nxi3ty]

.............................................................................................sigh

town is so naive.

a name claim doesn't reveal power roles.

*applauds ace for brilliant fishing*

[Crab Canon]

Vi, you can vote me all day long if you want. You can blame yourself for fluxuating reads because you have thrown a massive dose of confusion on this game. You are like a woman teasing sex. You flaunt yourself and say "oh, doesn't this look nice" and as soon as I finally say "ok, I can go with this" you rip it back and say "No!!!! I hate you.". You have done this TWICE now with us and it is getting REALLY annoying. I am getting a strong Vi-from-Dynasty-Warriors vibe from you. Where you are completely confused and leading town on wild goose chases (at least here you don't seem to have the ability to kill town). I don't know which way is up. I really wish VP would get back because I have a mound of thoughts piling up in the QT and I really would like his input but here are my thoughts/responses, plain as day. If VP doesn't agree with him, well he can sort that out when I get back.

First, we have NOT been " on the sidelines". Take a peak at the post counts, we are solidly here, #1 on the leaderboard. We have made 18 posts today, which returned Sunday. 18 posts in 4 days is hardly on the sidelines.
Second, I expressed suspicion of GNR yesterday. He is in my top 3 as I have stated very clearly. However, I was backing off of it a little bit given some of my suspicion of him was tied to Sotty. With Sotty being dead-town, it reduced some of the suspicion of him. I guess VP was convinced by my arguments in the QT but being that I was here most of yesterday and he was not I felt I had a better feel for the game and that is why I switched to ace. Which leads me to...
Third, Ace. I have a strong scum read on ace. Yesterday his vote hop on spring was Bad with a capital B. And today he comes in rolefishing for a vigilante. I am really disappointed that you are giving him a free pass because he is posting your messages and pushing Anxiety (against your wishes).
Fourth, the Saul post. Saulres has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game. But sometimes he shows these glimpses of a person who really knows what is going on. I know the newb card well. I played it very often until it got to the point where it wasn't going to fly anymore. Tell me, does a newbie

really

ask the question "do you know if your bulletproof vest is hit or not?". I don't think they do. I think a newbie doesn't even think about that. It reads as if someone has told them the details of their role and he is trying to ask a question that makes him look "confused" if and when GNR gets lynched. So, yes, now I have an excuse to get back on a GNR lynch which I wasn't at all opposed to. Wow, crazy, I know.
Fifth, Junpei. Really? Vi has a strong case on me? You are kidding right? When I get home from work I am seriously going to make a mixed tape of all of Junpei's buddying. THIS....IS...RI....DIC....ULOUS!

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 2.5

Guy_Named_Riggs (L-4) - ace5993, Crab Canon
ace5993 (L-4) - Locke Lamora, 4nxi3ty
4nxi3ty (L-4) – Junpei, Fishythefish
Crab Canon (L-5) - Vi

Not Voting (4) - Shift, Amrun, Guy_Named_Riggs, saulres

Deadline: Sunday October 16 @ 2:00 PM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-10-16 14:00:00)

[4nxi3ty]

town is so getting owned right now.

some advice: the more scum call someone a village idiot the riskier it is to night kill them leaving a mislynch as the only option.

[Vi]

You flaunt yourself and say "oh, doesn't this look nice" and as soon as I finally say "ok, I can go with this" you rip it back and say "No!!!! I hate you.".

*puzzled look*

I am getting a strong Vi-from-Dynasty-Warriors vibe from you.

*prints post out*
*turns it around*

Why are all of us who have strong scum reads on

ace

having to compromise for the much weaker

SL

wagon?!?!?!

Fifth,

Junpei

. Really?

Vi

has a strong case on me? You are kidding right? When I get home from work I am seriously going to make a mixed tape of all of Junpei's buddying. THIS....IS...RI....DIC....ULOUS!

Can someone point to a single rule that

F&F

HAVE been right about? They are blowing smoke up our asses and you guys are saying "thank you may I have another?"

*gives inquisitive glare*

today he comes in rolefishing for a vigilante.

*waves hi!*

Fourth, the Saul post. Saulres has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game. But sometimes he shows these glimpses of a person who really knows what is going on. I know the newb card well. I played it very often until it got to the point where it wasn't going to fly anymore. Tell me, does a newbie really ask the question "do you know if your bulletproof vest is hit or not?". I don't think they do. I think a newbie doesn't even think about that. It reads as if someone has told them the details of their role and he is trying to ask a question that makes him look "confused" if and when GNR gets lynched. So, yes, now I have an excuse to get back on a GNR lynch which I wasn't at all opposed to. Wow, crazy, I know.

Saulres

has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game.

So, yes, now I have an excuse to get back on a

GNR

lynch

If there is a second killer, perhaps it's saulres based on his first post of D2. This is just conjecture; right or wrong he's not worth pursuing atm.

*points to you*
*makes hand in shape of gun*
*points at saulres*
*bends thumb to first finger while pulling hand upward*


*taps 4nxi3ty on shoulder*
*points to Fishythefish*

[saulres]

Saulres has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game. But sometimes he shows these glimpses of a person who really knows what is going on. I know the newb card well. I played it very often until it got to the point where it wasn't going to fly anymore. Tell me, does a newbie really ask the question "do you know if your bulletproof vest is hit or not?". I don't think they do. I think a newbie doesn't even think about that. It reads as if someone has told them the details of their role and he is trying to ask a question that makes him look "confused" if and when GNR gets lynched.

I think I've been doing a damn good job of trying my hardest

not

to play the newbie card.

Case in point, I really didn't want to ask that question, but finally I broke down and had to because it was the last piece of the puzzle I'd been working on and I didn't know the answer.

Only one kill happened last night. Instead of trying to find scum, we got Vi and ace suddenly looking for a vig. I thought, "Gee that's odd. Going for a power role solely because only one person was killed? Every townie would be assuming a scum-hit. Doing something different is a sign of additional knowledge, and who would have that knowledge? Scum, who saw a hit go through they didn't place."

Realizing that there's likely at least one scum in Vi and Ace, and with me still not having a satisfactory answer to my Vi-rope question, when Ace suddenly posted QT words from Vi, I turned all my attention to trying to see where the scum is. If you look at my ISOs from my reaction to seeing what Ace posted (in my iso 69), you'll see I remained quite focussed on solving that problem.

Now I have the whole puzzle put together, and I've put it in this spoiler because it's very tl;dr. At this point I am inclined to believe their story, but I'm putting it out here along with my problems with the story in case of future developments (and because I typed the whole thing up).

Spoiler: The Vi/Ace story

The story they're telling:
Day one: Vi and GNR have day-talk capability as neighbors. Last night Ace used a one-shot ability to gain the same ability with Vi. GNR told Vi in their QT that he has bulletproof. Vi, realizing that she had bulletproof as well, got suspicious, so asked GNR to prove himself by posting her thoughts on springlullaby. He did so.

Night one: Ace, in order to understand Vi better, uses a one-shot neighborizing ability to start a QT with her, which doesn't seem to take effect until D2 started.

Day two: Vi tells Ace that she's very suspicious of GNR, but doesn't tell him why. He posts to that effect on her behalf, possibly now knowing the reason but agreeing it shouldn't be shared (this is based on Ace seemingly knowing the reason in his immediate following post). Ace asks for vig/sk claim, and soon thereafter rescinds the request.

After some time passes, Vi and Ace decide to share Vi's entire theory, because her town reads are putting pressure on them and she thinks it's a distraction.

That's the story as they're presenting it. And it's certainly plausible.

Now, here are the problems I see with this story.

First, in this closed setup, with only partial reveal, it's

completely unprovable

. No one else can be brought into either of the QTs. No townie can test the bulletproof claims.

Second, even if a townie suspects a vig/sk, why would their reaction be, "Scum didn't make the

single

night kill, someone else did?" But it would be pefectly natural for scum's reaction to be "Hey, that's not who we targetted, and our kill didn't go through. Let's find out what's going on!"

Third, the story isn't scum-hunting. It's PR-hunting. There's nothing in there designed to pull out scum from hiding, but there's stuff in there to pull out PRs.

I'll look at non-this stuff later, this took a lot of time to do.

[saulres]

Oh but one more thing, Vi, since we now have someone who can interpret for you:

I didn't understand this:

*ushers Debonair Danny DiPietro's supervisor on stage*
*gestures with proper hand motions how to vote*
*wordlessly encourages Debonair Danny DiPietro's supervisor to practice voting*
*votes ace5993 like a boss*

What do you mean by "DDD's supervisor"?

The "like a boss" comment also seems odd seeing as how it was followed almost immediately by SR and 4nxi3ty following that lead...

[4nxi3ty]

saul, who were your scum and town reads d1&2?

and what are you implying with those post?

[4nxi3ty]

fishy do you agree with vi or cc about saulres.

[saulres]

Aw crap. I knew there was something still bugging me.

Me and Vi have agreed that putting it out in the open is the best thing to do right now, so...

Riggs 5:

Hello
what exactly is your post restriction?

Riggs 7:

Also, I know who Teller is, just not a whole lot.

Vi 17:

Oh right, don't forget - Penn Jillette speaks for both himself and Teller. I suspect that was the intent of this role set. If it becomes a good idea at some time in the future, it's certainly possible for you to claim Penn and claim me as Teller and interpret for me. I don't think that anyone will doubt it, given that the mod is fairly well-known as a P&T fan.

Riggs 18:

Ah, okay. Your post restiriction makes much more sense now.

It takes from Riggs 5 to Riggs 18 for GNR to understand the post restriction and who teller is? I don't buy it takes 12 posts to explain that. So who the hell is posting between 7 and 17?

[ace5993]

@4nxi3ty - Explain your comment on springlullaby. DO THIS IN YOUR NEXT POST.

Unvote, Vote: 4nxi3ty

. This works better than the GNR theory right now.

Given Anxiety's behavior toward [a GNR lynch] (post 759), that's a good question. [question was me asking why jump off GNR]

However, did you see what Crab Canon did? A jump to Riggs (evidently trusting me), then a jump to ace (evidently NOT trusting me), then a jump back to Riggs. The reasoning all the way down doesn't make sense.

Reading back, is this really the same slot that had the reads shown in 359? :fauxshock:

Juls (of Crab Canon) 529: Why are all of us who have strong scum reads on ace having to compromise for the much weaker SL wagon?!?!?!

My first reaction to this sentence here is to lynch Crab Canon immediately, without hesitation, with fire if necessary.

---

Fishy's claim, on the other hand...
I know that scum CAN awesomely fakeclaim in situations like this, but so far, I've never actually seen it done. I'll have to reconsider the Anxious one based on it.

[4nxi3ty]

^pay attention folks

saulres ignores my questions and ace is suddenly not interested in riggs.

ace i was simply stating my read. why do you choose to pressure me about the springlullaby post and not the nameclaim?

[saulres]

saulres ignores my questions

I'll get to them. Locke's ahead of you. Neither of those are quick; I need time to review everything because I've been focused on the Vi-Act story and I do have a life outside this game.

[4nxi3ty]

^and now saulres makes an excuse for not answering two simple questions.

[ace5993]

^pay attention folks

saulres ignores my questions and ace is suddenly not interested in riggs.

ace i was simply stating my read. why do you choose to pressure me about the springlullaby post and not the nameclaim?

Oh I'm still interested in Riggs. What I'm more interested in is that it's probably true that scum wouldn't shoot a bulletproof so a RB is a more likely stop to a scum kill. If Riggs is scum, you're probably scum too, and you have a greater chance of being scum without Riggs than vice versa.

How did you come to the read that spring is a potential third party, but couldn't be scum?

[4nxi3ty]

^and ace still doesn't want talk about why asked for a nameclaim

[saulres]

^ and 4nxi3ty doesn't answer a simple question

Enough of your bullshit.

Vote: 4nxi3ty

[4nxi3ty]

^and now saulres thinks using the same tactic will work for him.
^and now he suddenly has time to reply to me

[4nxi3ty]

^and now their both having trouble manufacturing a response

goodbye folks any questions you have i'll answer them tommorow

[Vi]

*taps 4nxi3ty on shoulder*
*points to Fishythefish*

I know that scum CAN awesomely fakeclaim in situations like this, but so far, I've never actually seen it done.

/sigh. I suck at subtlety. Alright, one part of my role is roleblocker. I used it on F&F last night. Since they claim to receive information they couldn't have been role blocked. To the best of my knowledge, and in every game I have ever played, roleblocking resolves first. So unless someone can tell me of something that would block my roleblock then F&F is lying. My guess is she is probably sharing information from another scum partner to build town cred.

*slaps own forehead*

It takes from Riggs 5 to Riggs 18 for GNR to understand the post restriction and who teller is? I don't buy it takes 12 posts to explain that. So who the hell is posting between 7 and 17?

*points to Debonair Danny DiPietro*
*points to Debonair Danny DiPietro*
*points to self*
*points to self*

*sets watch*

*points to Riggs*
*points to self*
*points to Riggs*
*points to self*
*points to Riggs*
*points to self*
*points to self*
*taps watch*
*points to self*
*points to self*
*taps watch*
*points to Riggs*
*points to self*
*points to Riggs*
*points to self*
*taps watch*
*points to Riggs*
*points to Riggs*

Second, even if a townie suspects a vig/sk, why would their reaction be, "Scum didn't make the single night kill, someone else did?"

And THAT is why I'm wondering if sottyrulez was vigged. There are clandestine ways of blocking kills running around.

What do you mean by "DDD's supervisor"?

*writes joke on paper*
*holds joke over your head*

The "like a boss" comment also seems odd seeing as how it was followed almost immediately by

SR

and 4nxi3ty following that lead...

*puzzled look*

Realizing that there's likely at least one scum in Vi and Ace

^ and 4nxi3ty doesn't answer a simple question

Enough of your bullshit.

Vote: 4nxi3ty

[Vi]

...

*produces roll of masking tape from hat*
*tapes saulres' mouth shut*
*tapes 4nxi3ty's mouth shut*

...

*tapes own mouth shut*

*allows gaze to wander toward others*

[Amrun]

Okay, can we just ignore this and lynch junpei, please?

Vote: Junpei

[Crab Canon]

You flaunt yourself and say "oh, doesn't this look nice" and as soon as I finally say "ok, I can go with this" you rip it back and say "No!!!! I hate you.".

*puzzled look*

Day 1, you were pushing an ace lynch. When I came around to it, he was no longer scummy to you. Day 2, you are pushing a GNR lynch, when I came around to it, he isn't your choice anymore. It's like you are toying with me and it is making very nervous about you.

I am getting a strong Vi-from-Dynasty-Warriors vibe from you.

*prints post out*
*turns it around*

Why are all of us who have strong scum reads on

ace

having to compromise for the much weaker

SL

wagon?!?!?!

Fifth,

Junpei

. Really?

Vi

has a strong case on me? You are kidding right? When I get home from work I am seriously going to make a mixed tape of all of Junpei's buddying. THIS....IS...RI....DIC....ULOUS!

Can someone point to a single rule that

F&F

HAVE been right about? They are blowing smoke up our asses and you guys are saying "thank you may I have another?"

*gives inquisitive glare*

I am not saying you are blowing smoke, I just think you are off this game with your scum hunting. Spring Lullaby was not a good lynch. But you were stubborn about it and several people who I believe to be town were forced to compromise on it despite not really wanting that lynch. Now you are going to start pushing me and we are going to lather, rinse, repeat. You don't have a strong case on me. You are saying that because I had an "excuse" to get back on the GNR lynch I am scum. And now you have ace's name in green as if he is confirmed town? Penn & Teller: Bullshit!

today he comes in rolefishing for a vigilante.

*waves hi!*

That's not how he presented it at all and now this is revisionism. He came out rolefishing on the basis that he didn't trust you. Now you are saying that you were pushing him to get the vigilante to claim?

Fourth, the Saul post. Saulres has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game. But sometimes he shows these glimpses of a person who really knows what is going on. I know the newb card well. I played it very often until it got to the point where it wasn't going to fly anymore. Tell me, does a newbie really ask the question "do you know if your bulletproof vest is hit or not?". I don't think they do. I think a newbie doesn't even think about that. It reads as if someone has told them the details of their role and he is trying to ask a question that makes him look "confused" if and when GNR gets lynched. So, yes, now I have an excuse to get back on a GNR lynch which I wasn't at all opposed to. Wow, crazy, I know.

Saulres

has played the newbie card consistently throughout this game.

So, yes, now I have an excuse to get back on a

GNR

lynch

If there is a second killer, perhaps it's saulres based on his first post of D2. This is just conjecture; right or wrong he's not worth pursuing atm.

*points to you*
*makes hand in shape of gun*
*points at saulres*
*bends thumb to first finger while pulling hand upward*

I assume this is you saying that I should be lynching saulres and not GNR? If I believe that GNR/saulres *could* be scum together which one is the most informative lynch? I think the GNR lynch is way more informative because we learn about you and potentially ace. We lynch saulres, we don't get the extra info.

Next up:
1. dig up my list of saulres playing the newb card
2. make my Junpei buddying list

[Crab Canon]

I'm just going to do this raw from our hydra QT from where I caught up during day 1. I will see if there are any additions for this day. (Apologies in advance for multiposting)

Saulres:
Post 5 - "Why lurk" to springlullabye. Probably a newb thing and not realizing that spring is garnering reaction/telling the truth.
Post 37 - Upset about being voted, kinda a jokey post (followed by 38, another jokey post).
Post 62 - suggests vi signaled her scumbuddies to vote
Post 127 - Seems to be playing the newb card.
Post 129 - Chastising for insignificant things (quoting whole posts), says anxiety has info that there are no cults, stupid case all around
Post 177 - Another newb card.
Post 182 - I don't like this buddying here by Saulres especially after anxiety just talked about "fluffy interaction" It feels like he is trying to solidify a tie to us.
Post 192 - insinuating that we are masons with Vi is stupid. If we were masons, Vi wouldn't be suspicious of us.
Post 199 - Did he ever reread our interactions with sottyrulez?
Post 240 - This is a self meta tell but "trying to figure things out" is how I tried to blend in during mind screw.
Post 275 - Thanks for the update on the state of the game. *rolls eyes* I just think this guy is fluff posting.
Post 288 - Another game recap. Gawd this guy!
Post 293 - Fucking A, this guy gave another recap...wth?!?!?!
Post 322 - asks questions about what's going on...
Post 324 - stupid vote on anxiety.
Post 342 - More "I don't understand"

[Crab Canon]

We can add these to the list as well in a quick iso:

Post 348 - Fluff post
Post 479 - Fluff post
Post 591 - Disappointment over the SL lynch
Post 595 - Pursuing a stupid line of questioning about Vi using a rope in her post. Seriously, this is dumb.
Post 596 - Newb card about how the vote tags are formatted
Post 599 - More pursuing the rope questioning
Post 603 - Fluff post
Post 688 - Fluff post
Post 750 - Manufactured question
Post 765 - Newb card