Prozacs Basic Theme 3 - GAME OVER

[Katsuki]

Myko you do realize that the only reason WHY you're still alive is because Fate chose to fake a mason claim on you, right?

[Katsuki]

No, no. Neither you nor I are conftown, Katsuki, Fate's opinion notwithstanding, because he is not infallible. I would put Mykonian as closer to conftown than either of us because Fate stuck with that particular town read for a really long time and because Fate is dead and scumMyko wouldn't have let that happen at the hands of scum. Even so, even Myko is not CONFIRMED town. He's just the closest we currently have.

Fate and I have played some 20something games together. We read each other with near total accuracy.

[Katsuki]

To clarify, Fate would NOT have pulled away from lynching me UNLESS he had a SOLID TOWN READ on me. He is never afraid of lynching me.

[mykonian]

Myko you do realize that the only reason WHY you're still alive is because Fate chose to fake a mason claim on you, right?

Fate has just proven to read you very badly after a claim in a game with you and me in it. (just finished @mod). Such a fun way to confirm your way town via Fate right at this moment.

Don't mistake me, I do enjoy the irony of that post.

[Katsuki]

The us reading each other with near accuracy is kind of a false statement, so ignore it. = =

Pretty much, #1352 is why I'm conf. town.

[Katsuki]

Myko you do realize that the only reason WHY you're still alive is because Fate chose to fake a mason claim on you, right?

Fate has just proven to read you very badly after a claim in a game with you and me in it. (just finished @mod). Such a fun way to confirm your way town via Fate right at this moment.

Don't mistake me, I do enjoy the irony of that post.

You don't think that Fate wouldn't love to lynch me? I can dig up a fair number of games where he savors lynching Katsuki if you want.

Speaking of which, MoS and I were talking earlier in the thread about how townFate mislynched me in LYLO. So him not lynching me here confirms me.

Me using this to call myself conf town is incredibly tacky, but there you have it.

[StrangerCoug]

I'm not suggesting we kill Bunny to find out your alignment.

Post where I was suggesting this either. All I wanted was your stance on Bunnylover. I understood that you think I am scum either way, so that's why I've been treating that as a constant.

[Banshee]

Me using this to call myself conf town is incredibly tacky, but there you have it.

This just makes me want to lynch you to find out if you're lying to me. :p

[Porochaz]

So you all decide that you should look at the videotapes of the casino before it closes. Initially on the first run through you don't spot anything. However on the second run through you watch Fraser Hope win pot after pot. You see him concentrate furiously between hands focusing on the dealers hands. He's a card-counter. A cheat. A liar. LYNCH ALL LIARS!!! Wait... the chandeliers gone... STUFF THE CARDS DOWN HIS THROAT. So that's what you did. Unfortunately, card-counting was his only illegal activity.

TheJakalope - Fraser Hope - Card Counter - Vanilla Townie - Lynched Day 5

Night will last 3 days.

[Porochaz]

Crap I forgot to open this thread when I meant to. Will update soon.

[Porochaz]

Kim Taylor was a student at the nearby university. She had come out after a party to end the night off and hopefully win big. She was offered a chance to win hundreds of thousands of pounds, if she just played a little game. £££ in her eyes she entered, not knowing that five days later her body would be discovered with a shot to the heart. She was found on the bar sofa where she usually slept every night. She hadn't suffered.

Banshee - Kim Taylor - Student - Vanilla Townie - Shot in the heart Night 5

In the morning, a head was found. The group looked round horrified and wondered who else was missing. Then you all realised, it was the head that went with the body the night before...

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

Deadline is in 16 days.

[Nocmen]

Very suspicious of Kat and chk from the end of yesterday.

Kat's using Fate WIFOM to be cleared, and chk's vote is such an obvious wagoning vote, especially when he said his initial and meta thoughts of Jak were town.

Vote: chkflip

. Nothing good in that slot all game.

[chkflip]

So you would've preferred I let the lazy ass town no lynch?

LOL K

[Nocmen]

Was there a rush to lynch? We were 2 weeks away from a deadline.

[chkflip]

So there was another person we were working into lynching? Oh, okay.

We're damn close to LYLO right now, I think lynching "dead weight" isn't really the way to go with ~3 non-town left.

inb4HOWUKNOWHOWMANYS??? 1:4 is the typical balance. We all know this.

[StrangerCoug]

...Yeah. I'm not liking how chkflip is reacting to Nocmen right now, especially with the flippant #1362.

VOTE: chkflip

[Mastermind of Sin]

chkflip, if you think lynching dead weight is a bad decision, why did you vote to lynch thejak? He was obviously VI, not scum. We should have been going after people like StrangerCoug.

Unfortunately, I have no idea why Banshee was killed. A quick look through his ISO shows that he had virtually no scumreads other than being on thejak's wagon, so it wasn't pressure that caused his death. Perhaps they had a power role read on him.

3. StrangerCoug - scum
8. Katsuki - neutral
9. chkflip - neutral leaning scum
11. Nocmen - neutral leaning scum
12. Dramonic - neutral leaning scum
17. Bunnylover - neutral leaning town
19. Mykonian - probably town

So not a lot of information to be had after a quick ISO of most players. You guys are all playing relatively shitty across the board, unfortunately. If I remember correctly, we have claims from Nocmen and Bunnylover, right? We should probably consider mass claim today.

Tactic #2, let's look at xvart:

Votes Bunnylover
Votes Nocmen
Votes Bogre
Votes Katsuki
Reads on people wagoning him:

Fate - running up wagons on people he doesn't think is scum just to get a claim
Reck - no reasons, no real contributions
Bunnylover - lol at this vote
jackalope - lol at this vote, too
katsuki - scum
ellibereth - only seems to care about getting people to claim

Not a lot of info here, so let's look at Ellibereth:

Votes no lynch
Calls for Bunny claim, then Stranger
Calls for Noc claim then votes
unvotes
Calls for Katsuki claim
Calls for Bogre claim
Votes stranger
Votes Bogre
Votes CSL/chkflip
Votes xvart
Votes bunny
Posts a VC "Analysis" with no conclusions
Votes David

Not a lot here either, although the "pressure" on Stranger without any real reasoning stands out as possible distancing, especially since Elli's vote was just kinda parked on Stranger until it was time for him to get on the lynch wagon for that day.

Even though I rarely resort to this as a scumhunting tactic, I don't feel like I have a good read on anyone especially as a replacement myself, so let's look at the voting patterns to see if anything important comes up (all replacements have been renamed to their current player for clarity):

Day 1

Nocmen - 8 -

Blackberry

,

Reck

, chkflip, myko,

Fate

,

TheJackalope

, Katsuki,

Banshee

Bogre

- 10 -

Flameaxe

,

Fate

,

TheJackalope

,

David

,

Blackberry

,

Elli

, myko,

Trekkers

,

xvart

, Bunnylover

Day 2

myko - 3 - nocmen, katsuki, MoS
Katsuki - 8 -

Fate

,

David

, chkflip, Stranger,

Reck

,

Oman

, Nocmen,

xvart

xvart

- 9 -

Fate

,

Reck

, Bunnylover,

TheJackalope

, katsuki,

Ellibereth

, MoS, dramonic, chkflip

Day 3

dramonic - 5 - MoS, Nocmen, mykonian,

TheJackalope

, StrangerCoug
Bunny - 7 -

Fate

, Katsuki, chkflip,

Oman

,

Elli

,

TheJackalope

,

David

Day 4

Bunny - 4 - Stranger, dram, nocmen, mos

Banshee

- 4 -

Fate

, myko, bunny,

TheJackalope

David

- 6 -

Fate

, Nocmen,

TheJackalope

, StrangerCoug, Bunnylover, mykonian

Day 5

Katsuki - 3 - Bunnylover, mykonian,

TheJackalope

TheJackalope

- 6 - Nocmen, StrangerCoug, Katsuki,

Banshee

, chkflp, mykonian

Let's focus more on the wagons of people who are dead:

Bogre wagon was 6 town, 2 scum, plus myko and Bunny.
xvart wagon was 3 town, 1 scum, plus Bunny, katsuki, MoS, dram, and chkflip.
Banshee wagon was 2 town plus myko and Bunny
David wagon was 2 town plus Nocmen, Stranger, Bunny, and myko
TheJackalope wagon was 1 town plus Nocmen, Stranger, Katsuki, chkflip, and myko

For reference, here's the wagons on living players:

Nocmen wagon was 5 town plus chkflip, myko, and Katsuki.
myko wagon was Nocmen, Katsuki, and MoS
Katsuki wagon #1 was 4 town, 1 scum, plus chkflip, Stranger, and Nocmen.
dram wagon was 1 town plus MoS, Nocmen, myko, and Stranger
Bunny wagon #1 was 4 town, 1 scum, plus Katsuki and chkflip
Bunny wagon #2 was Stranger, dram, nocmen, and MoS (ouch I feel bad being in the company of those 3)
Katsuki wagon #2 was 1 town plus myko and Bunny

So now let's look at the living player's voting patterns:

Disclaimer: I'm not doing wagon analysis on myself, but someone else is more than willing to use the data above to look at my/scooby's patterns if they aren't yet convinced that I'm town. I'm putting this disclaimer here in good faith so that you know I'm not maliciously omitting myself from the results. Some of my conclusions may also apply to scooby's voting pattern, but since I know his/my alignment, that narrows the field for me to figure out which people exhibiting such behavior were actually possible scum.

3. StrangerCoug - On the David and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Katsuki #1, dram, and Bunny #2 wagons. Voted 4th, 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 1st positions, respectively.
8. Katsuki - On the xvart and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Nocmen, myko, and Bunny #1 wagons. Voted 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 7th, and 2nd positions, respectively.
9. chkflip - On the xvart and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Nocmen, Katsuki #1, and Bunny #1 wagons. Voted 9th (Hammer), 5th, 3rd, 3rd, and 3rd positions, respectively.
11. Nocmen - On the David and Jackalope lynches, as well as the myko, dram, and Bunny #2 wagons. Voted 2nd, 1st, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd positions, respectively.
12. Dramonic - On the xvart lynch, as well as the Bunny #2 wagon. Voted 8th and 2nd positions, respectively.
17. Bunnylover - On the Bogre, xvart, and David lynches, as well as the Banshee and Katsuki #2 wagons. Voted 10th (Hammer), 3rd, 5th, 3rd, and 1st positions, respectively.
19. Mykonian - On the Bogre, David, and Jackalope lynches, as well as the Banshee, Nocmen, dram, and Katsuki #2 wagons. Voted 7th, 6th (Hammer), 6th (Hammer), 2nd, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd positions, respectively.

So let's try to draw some notable patterns and conclusions from this analysis:

3. Strangercoug was completely uninvolved in most of the early wagons throughout the game. Also did not take part in the xvart lynch.
8. Katsuki's voting patterns don't give me any real insight at this time.
9. chkflip was VERY late on the xvart lynch, but voted early and in an aggressive position on all the wagons that failed (3rd on all of them). Perfect positioning for scum not wanting to take responsibility for a mislynch (that would ideally go to the people who started the wagon).
11. Nocmen has voted aggressively on all of his wagons, and was not on the xvart lynch.
12. Dramonic has stayed off pretty much all of the wagons so far this game, except for being late to the xvart wagon and early to the Bunny wagon (understandable before Fate was revealed as governor).
17. Bunny has been on a lot of wagons, as also has been seen voting very similarly to myko this game. The early positioning on the xvart wagon (given that the other 3 came up town) suggests a possible bussing attempt, distancing by getting in on the wagon early and sheeping Fate.
19. mykonian has been wagoning almost indiscriminately this game, which begs the question of why he wasn't on the xvart lynch. Also conspicuously late voting on all the lynches, but early and aggressive voting on the other wagons.

Based on the above conclusions, I'd reevaluate my reads as follows:

3. Stranger - probably scum
8. Katsuki - neutral leaning town
9. chkflip - probably scum
11. Nocmen - neutral leaning scum
12. Dramonic - neutral
17. Bunny - probably scum
19. Mykonian - neutral leaning scum

Obviously some of these people are just bad town players rather than scum, so I'm going to try to further look into possible scumgroups. With 20 players, we probably have 4-5 scum total, which means 2-3 remaining scum. Given that we had 2 kills on Nights 1, 2, and 4, we either have an SK or a Vig as the second killing element, or 2 mafias (unlikely, given the generic scum reveals so far). This means we're likely looking for 2 mafia and 1 SK, or 3 mafia (with a vig on the town side as a counter). The lack of kills on nights 3 and 5 makes me believe we might have a vig with a conscience, since an SK doesn't really have any reason to stop killing. That's not a hard conclusion, however.

Scumgroup 1: xvart, Elli, Stranger, chkflip, Nocmen

I like this group because Elli distanced from all four of them, and both Stranger/Nocmen did not take part in the xvart lynch, whereas Elli and chkflip were both late.

Scumgroup 2: xvart, Elli, Bunny, Mykonian, Dramonic

Elli also distanced from Bunny, and was in similar position on the governed lynch when compared to the xvart lynch. The Bogre lynch shows these 4 players as 4 of the last 5 votes, which is where scum want to be when they don't want to take credit for a lynch. Bunny's positioning on the xvart wagon also smells of distancing, and it's telling that myko did not sheep her "mason buddy" Fate on the Bunny wagon. Add to that the similar voting patterns between Bunny and myko this game. Dramonic has also worked very hard to stay off most of the wagons in this game, except for showing up just in time to be on the xvart lynch, so you could plug him in here. Not sure if he is the fifth person in this group, but you could probably plug in any one of the people from scumgroup 1 or put Dramonic up in group 1 somewhere.

Right now I don't see a lot of good scenarios where Katsuki is scum. That doesn't make Katsuki cleared, but he's doing a good job of changing up his play if he *is* scum. Possible SK? Maybe, but I'm not yet convinced we have one.

Sadly, this means that pretty much anyone alive right now could easily be scum with xvart and Elli. I'd like people to answer a few questions that will help clear the air:

1) Stranger, Nocmen, and myko: Why weren't you on the xvart wagon?
2) Stranger, Dramonic: Why have you been avoiding most of the wagons in this game? (For Stranger, the question applies more to the early days, rather than the last 2 or so)
3) chkflip: Explain the discrepancy between your xvart vote and your other wagoning.
4) Katsuki: Who do you believe the remaining scumgroup is?
5) Bunny, Myko: What are your reads on each other?
6) Bunny: Why did you believe xvart was scum?

[Nocmen]

MoS: If we look at xvart initially, I felt that he was less scummy at first because he actually gave a reason for the Bogre wagon, as opposed to others on the wagon. When this went into Day 2, I had questions to ask of other players for their votes much more than xvart. And for the first part of D2, he barely posted anything. I forgot he was even in the game, definitely having gone under the radar. Now if we look at the xvart wagon at the end of D2, it started after Katsuki's claim. A claim which I still don't fully believe. And it was another Fate wagon, one where I started to get annoyed with him as well as Jakalope, and I dedicated the rest of D2 trying to start a full wagon on him. I had priorites of who I would want to lynch then, and it wasn't xvart.

Also, This is the full extent of the myko wagon:

myko - 7 - dram, reck, nocmen csl, jackalope, katsuki, scooby
strangercoug - 1 - mykonian
Katsuki - 1 - Fate

[Mastermind of Sin]

Damn, just realized that chkflip is basically "in the clear" because he can't answer for CSL's voting patterns. That doesn't make his actions any less scummy, but it makes my question to him rather pointless.

[Bunnylover]

@MoS:
Before my investigation of Fate, my read on Noc was scum just on the sole purpose that I believed Fate was claiming mason with a scumbuddy.
Currently, I am leaning scum on Myko. The way he attacked Reck and Dram, was not in a town motion for me. I haven't forgotten about that, especially since I have a confirm town on Dram. But, Myko seems to be doing a lot more work then a lot of our town flips.

Its a stupid reason, but I believed that Fate was scum claiming mason. Just like in the last game, Fate bussed his other partner. So in this game, I believed that Fate was going to bus another one of his partners, and therefore I was confident that Xvart was going to flip scum.
I thought I had explained that a little after my vote :<.

[dramonic]

Did you not get an investigation during the night?
You're odd-days no?

@MoS: I've been busy being skeptical of Myko trying to confirm himself.

[Mastermind of Sin]

@MoS:
Before my investigation of Fate, my read on Noc was scum just on the sole purpose that I believed Fate was claiming mason with a scumbuddy.

??? Does Not Compute. Fate claimed mason with myko, not Nocmen.

Currently, I am leaning scum on Myko. The way he attacked Reck and Dram, was not in a town motion for me. I haven't forgotten about that, especially since I have a confirm town on Dram. But, Myko seems to be doing a lot more work then a lot of our town flips.

Effort doesn't equal towniness. In fact, scum often put in more effort than town BECAUSE they are scum and are trying to look as townie as possible, whereas town don't usually worry about it. That's why it's a null tell. You have to read into the motivations of a player's actions rather than just stopping at "are they putting in effort?"

Its a stupid reason, but I believed that Fate was scum claiming mason. Just like in the last game, Fate bussed his other partner. So in this game, I believed that Fate was going to bus another one of his partners, and therefore I was confident that Xvart was going to flip scum.
I thought I had explained that a little after my vote :<.

I actually agreed that Fate's claim was suspect, which is why I not only refused to lynch you when I first replaced in but I also suggested lynching one of you/Fate/Myko the next day because that trio of claims didn't seem right to me.

Also, I wasn't in the game when the xvart happened, so I didn't know what reasons you had. I didn't have time to read that in-depth. That post took me about an hour as-is...

[Bunnylover]

Did you not get an investigation during the night?
You're odd-days no?

@MoS: I've been busy being skeptical of Myko trying to confirm himself.

I am odd-day.
I received no result.
Don't mind confession this, but I didn't receive a result Night 3 either.
My read on Fate as town was due to how he reacted after I claimed.
He roared that he was town. I've never seen someone roar they are town unless:
1) They are town
2) They are scum-godfather which probably means investigation immune.
3) They are gambitting scum.
2/3 possibility say my result would be town, and went with it, hoping that I was right.

On the same note, I don't believe I was roleblocked solely. I think I was jailkeeped, as their is no night kill 3 and only 1 kill last night (assuming no vig).
Not sure why someone would Jailkeep me (assuming town) and prevent my result, but having two missing kills (assuming no vigs) lead me to this conclusion.

@MoS: lol, my bad. While doing my response, I was reading Noc response to you as I typed my response. Noc should = Myko.
And yeah, I forgot you had replaced in.

[Mastermind of Sin]

Chance of protown roleblocker + protown jailkeeper? Doubtful.

[Bunnylover]

Chance of protown roleblocker + protown jailkeeper? Doubtful.

Yeah, but I don't understand why I am still alive + no results other then Night 1.
Then the missing kills on Night 3.
Unless we have bulletproof people, but I don't think so.