Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[Junpei]

I think anxiety's point is that you did not give your reads from day 1, and so he just went through and marked everything day 1 that indicated a read so that you could make a day 1 reads list I think. Although reading it it looks like you felt Vi, Anxiety, Sotty were scum with suspicion on GNR and CC.

I'm not sure if there's more to this or not though, I mean, why make a huge post on this, I'd still like anxiety to announce is full point.

[Vi]

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unvotes Crab Canon

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*teases sex to other players on wagon*

First off, CC, your bit about those being raw notes and your interpretations therefore being suffice is wrong. When you do PBP you need links to the post so that we can cross reference every post with ease. The way you have it laid out makes it very hard to discern what you're talking about and forces us to open up more tabs and flip between them to read.

*rolls eyes*
*maintains interest*

What I'm trying to say is: Saulres has every right to be upset with your interpretation of the facts.

This post by fish is strange, I mean if Vi is telling the truth, two kills went off. Does Fish believe that he RB'd anxiety from shooting off a THIRD kill?

Lol what? Now I know there are a lot of possible variables to account for, but given that there are (X+1) players, and a RB and a bp (the assumption you are making),

the chances are equal. 1/X, to be exact.

*rereads claims*

[Junpei]

Don't understand your first 3 other than you don't agree with me, but as far as the last one goes, I see now what you mean I think. Since there is more than 1 scum, the odds of hitting you (if you were hit/are town) are actually higher than if scum being RB'd. So Saulres' point of "better chance of RB than BP" is worse than before.

[4nxi3ty]

the main point of that post was to show the holes in his flow of logic, to point out his attitude towards certain players(in particular ace and riggs), and to show his suspicion of sotty/vi/me.

the reads saulres gave me had no mention of sotty, had no reads on ace or riggs, and vi is now town while i am scum even though we were tied together based on sottyrulez flip. saul hasn't even discussed the flips today aside from "i was disappointed in springlullaby's lynch".

yesterday his attitude towards both riggs and ace- saul is not quite sure of their alignment yet their not scummy enough to pressure(looking at the posts you might even say he has townreads on them). today, according to saul, riggs is flailing scum. also, whenever i get into a discussion with ace he jumps in and decides to pressure me by calling me scum.

there are a few other interesting things going on in those quotes that i don't care to go into at this time.

[Crab Canon]

Crab Canon, this is a no reveal game, and a claim could potentially help town quite a lot. There is no harm in prolonging the lynch by a few hours when I'm around checking the thread constantly ready to hammer if someone wants to blitz day 1 for some reason. A claim would have been very helpful in the event that spring flips town (however unlikely). That was my logic, along with the fact that people indicated that they were going to post before the deadline and several hadn't.

I had no problem with prolonging the day. What I am asking you is why you were willing to hammer ace if he was a strong town read for you? Also, when did you develop this "strong scum read" on SL? I don't see much commenting on SL from you except to say that her reads were "cookie cutter".

[Junpei]

When did I express intent to hammer Ace? In this post (this is the only post I can see the misinterpretation happening) I meant that I'd insta-hammer on spring if someone voted Ace.

[Crab Canon]

Yes, that is how I interpreted it.

And the second part to my question?

[Junpei]

Also, saying "strong scum read" is a slight misquote, as I said "pretty good scum read". Regardless, I stated that I had just ISO'd spring, and then decided that I found her considerably scummier than Ace, the two lynch choices of the day.

[Junpei]

Yes, that is how I interpreted it.

Well then I'm a bit confused here, what exactly do you mean by "Why you were willing to hammer ace if he was a strong town read for you?"

[Crab Canon]

The way you implied I interpreted it is the way I interpreted. I thought you were saying you would insta-hammer ace.

Also, really? Are we going to get into semantics here? strong read / pretty good scum read has the same intent. What did you see in her iso that made you certain she was scum?

[Junpei]

The way you implied I interpreted it is the way I interpreted. I thought you were saying you would insta-hammer ace.

Also, really? Are we going to get into semantics here? strong read / pretty good scum read has the same intent. What did you see in her iso that made you certain she was scum?

I wasn't complaining about that, no need to get into semantics, I was simply stating for the record. Anyway, I will go through the ISO again and try to point out what made me sway into a spring hammer later when I get back. Also, for future reference, please link quotes in cases/arguments. This is a bit off topic but I just figured that since this conversation is stalling for some hours, that I"d throw this in there.

[Luxury]

Hello, Regfan side of the head here and I've read up on everything and had a good discussion with Shift. Nice to see a lot of you again and surprisingly I found this to be one of the more enjoyable catch-up reads that I've done in quite some time though I have to admit I've never seen Penn and Teller so I'm behind flavourish wise. I have strong town reads on Vi and Ace and I also have relatively strong town-reads on Crab Cannon, Saulres and Fishy at the moment too though the Fishy town read revolves primarily around his role and action claim. Explanations behind my other town-reads are available upon request.

Given the no reveal nature of the setup and it generally favoring scum greatly I find a three person scum team highly unlikely and can very much see this being two scum and a SK with Sotty being the SKs kill last night which essentially means that either Vi was shot at or scum were roleblocked, I lean towards the later. I'm very much considering the possibility of Riggs being a SK-BP right now, his avoidance of taking strong stances in the thread, his lurking to avoid being in the limelight and his suspicion of Sotty throughout most of yesterday match up with Sottys kill being from a SK and SK-BP seems balanced and likely setup-wise.

Disregarding setup speculation I have scum-reads of various strengths on Jumpei, Riggs, Amrum, Locke and Anxiety and would be content with nearly any of their lynches today though my preference right now would be Riggs since my Anxiety scum-read is boosted and based around his role blocking rather than anything else. I do want to read more into Locke/Anxiety tomorrow though because between the five of [Amrum, Jumpei, Anxiety, Riggs, Locke] I'm positive Amrum and Jumpei aren't partners forcing at least one of Locke/Anxiety/Riggs to be scum and considering I think Riggs is SK one of Locke/Anxiety have to be scum.

Vote: Riggs

[Amrun]

So you think Riggs is Sk, and you vote him over your scum candidates? why?

[Junpei]

I concur, if Riggs is indeed SK, then by your logic we should know that through the Night Kills, as there will be more than as if there was just the factional kill of scum. Also... it is "Amrun" and "Junpei", but that aside, you think that an SK is paired with a (by your reads) town person in a private QT? I find that to be a bit stacked against the SK, as long as we are speculating.

Also, are you an open, semi-open, or closed hydra?

[Luxury]

So you think Riggs is Sk, and you vote him over your scum candidates? why?

Disregarding setup speculation I have scum-reads of various strengths on Jumpei, Riggs, Amrum, Locke and Anxiety and

would be content with nearly any of their lynches today though my preference right now would be Riggs since my Anxiety scum-read is boosted and based around his role blocking

rather than anything else

-Shift

PEdit: If by open you mean our heads, this is currently a hydra of Shift and Regfan alone.

And yes, for some reason Regfan likes to spell your names with "m"s despite me pointing it out multiple times. Deal with it.

As for how having a town neighbor as SK is stacked against the SK, you honestly think it's not a little too OP for town to have two bulletproof neighbors?

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 2.7

4nxi3ty (L-2) – Junpei, Fishythefish, ace5993, saulres
saulres (L-4) - Crab Canon, 4nxi3ty
ace5993 (L-5) - Locke Lamora
Junpei (L-5) – Amrun
Guy_Named_Riggs (L-5) - Luxury

Not Voting (2) - Guy_Named_Riggs, Vi

Deadline: Sunday October 16 @ 2:00 PM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-10-16 14:00:00)

Locke Lamora has been prodded.

[Crab Canon]

Unvote

VP said he is going to catchup tonight/tomorrow. We will vote after we talk.

[Junpei]

Shift, I was referring to will each post have the identity of a separate head, or will you post as one brain?

I do not find two BP town neighbors to be inherently OP, as the setup really dictates how much that is powerful. I do believe an SK trapped in a neighbor QT with a townie like that is a bit disadvantaged as it forces him into the spotlight. As you can see, this is all speculation with no basis or evidence, and it happens to be the reasoning behind you wanting Riggs dead. Although it's hard to tell to what degree that is by your post.

[Luxury]

I won't be signing my posts however Shift will probably sign his.

Our read on Riggs although partially based around setup speculation also involves his avoidance of strong stances, continued lurking and his suspicions yesterday fitting the Sotty death and yes I do believe the likelihood of a SK and townie BPs being inside a neighborhood being more likely than two townie BPs.

[Fishythefish]

Also, I don't interpret that post by fishy that way at all. I think he is offering multiple scenarios, one of which is that he blocked anxiety from shooting player X. Another is that Vi was shot. I don't get how you think he is saying BOTH occurred.

This.

[ace5993]

4nxi3ty if you want to explain why you asked me for a nameclaim go ahead. You shouldn't need to be asked to elaborate on something.

I see nothing to change my reads at all, though I'm eagerly awaiting what CrabCanon comes up with now that both it's heads are back.

[Vi]

*searches for Riggs' posts onsite*

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votes for Guy_Named_Riggs

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[4nxi3ty]

XD this day just got better.

luxury needs to go into detail about why an sk lynch is more profitable than a scum lynch( silly rabbit).

ace, do you want to know why i asked for a name claim or why i thought spring was a vt, i will only answer one question from you.

[Junpei]

First show of scumhunting is a bit odd. Showing distaste for RQS + having a 2010 join date = town? His reasoning is generic to players as a whole, not to alignment at all, and leaves me scratching my head. Basically, looks like fake scumhunting.

Questions Vi about her post restriction; which would be fine if it hadn't been the case that on the last page, I did the same thing, and was faced with "modkill lazers!!". Scum trying to fit in, perhaps?

Town reads on me and Saulres? How? I'm not saying that it is crazy to think she does, but there is no explanation whatsoever in this post. Fake scumhunting.

Votes GNR, which is okay I suppose, just page 7 and putting pressure on those with less content is good. But the rest of the post is kind of meaningless and tries to express reads. Given the stamp on this post (3 days since) I am thinking that this was just a prod dodge post to stay in the game.

After 3 prod dodge posts, we get content again (it has been a full week) and I like it aside from the "reversed chainsaw defense", which makes no sense. But a good post.

He has kept his vote on GNR throughout the game with "scummiest lurker" and has not had to comment on much else as a result.

PBP is bad for reasons stated. Essentially no links, highly interpretative, and stops when he thinks someone is town. Also if he had been taking those notes, like the first sentence implied, then why hadn't it influenced his vote at all?

That's it, I believe. Also sorry for not posting this some hours ago, I fell asleep while I was starting. I could do one on Ace too I suppose if you want, although it is pretty cut and dry. He's just been scumhunting throughout the whole game, and the only thing that brings real question to that read is the shenanigans with Vi and GNR, but at the end of the day, he is still a strong town read.

[4nxi3ty]

huh? is this^ in response to cc or ace vs me?