The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[SpyreX]

MoI I think you're missing what would be the best reason for scum flying to a third wagon D1:

This right here. A third wagon going through makes BOTH the D1 wagons still viable because of the situation we're running into right now. Theoretically you could power swing three mislynches in the right environment.

The flipside is that to do it right you'd either need a very competent scumteam across the boards OR daytalk OR we should be able to parse out obvious jumps.

The other thing (and I don't have the energy to do it especially to fight this): if KKB flips town which I STILL think he's going to - looking at who had definitive stances on those two D1; instinct says that a large part of why that went the way it did isn't the tech plan above but that scum positioned themselves in such a way that they COULDNT jump without it being hugely suspect.

That said, I just looked at KKB's activity and he was flat gone from the site and every post since he's got back is here. I'm, again, taking that stance that this ISNT a scum hiding in the bushes lurking and popping out (unlike WoW).

That also said I'm requesting that IF KKB does flip scum just do me a huge favor Feysal and kill me. I've invested enough in this read that if I'm wrong about it I'd want to lynch me if I wasn't me.

[Plum]

VOTE COUNT #2.7

Furcolow - 1 - Espeonage
Feysal - 1 - Dekes
VitaminR - 3 - Herodotus, Gut, Empking
Dekes - 1 - VitaminR
kanyeknowsbest -

7

- Wraith, ooba, Ellibereth, mockingjaye, Andrius, Will-o-wisp, MagnaofIllusion
Mastermind of Sin - 2 - Furcolow, gandalf5166
Ellibereth -1 - Mastermind of Sin
Will-o-wisp - 2 - SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest

Not Voting (2): Sun and Moon, Feysal

With 20 alive it will take 10 votes to lynch.

Deadline for Day 1 will be on October 13th; exact time will be determined soon but basically when I feel like it.

@gut: i dont have email notifications turned on. i actually didnt get a prod pm from plum at all, in fact.

My apologies; having checked, you accidentally got left off the send to list.

Dekes hasn't posted onsite since last Thursday. He's on the prod list but I'll also be searching for someone interested in replacing in case he's flown the coop. Espeonage, and Gut are being prodded.

Deadline for Day 2 will be (expired on 2011-10-13 11:59:59)

. I'll be V/LA Wednesday evening through Saturday evening, so if the Day ends while I'm away, expect Vi to close the thread. Once Vi tells you to stop talking, do so on pain of potential Modkill. Night will start when I have the chance to post the end-of-Day scene.

[Gut]

Still think Kanye is town.

I don't know what this town has against lynching scum. VitRwagon is the only halfway decent wagon.

[Ellibereth]

looking over Kanye
I kinda think people who didn't get all bug-eyed and wierded out by Ooba's statement on lurker's are scum.
Whoever those are.

[Empking]

Unvote, Vote: Kanye

[Mastermind of Sin]

Reading the thread is tek.

Ok, so your reasoning amounts to the following –

Elli has little reason to be on kayne’s wagon.

That’s it? You don’t have anything else? Because that’s a craptastic load to say that’s reasoning when kayne hasn’t even flipped yet. How do you know he’s a mislynch?

Ellibereth exhibited similarly lackluster reasoning when wagoning people in [REDACTED], where he was scum.

I don't

know

Kanye is a mislynch, but I suspect as much because he and his wagon give me the kind of vibes that I trust. As noted previously, see the Palisades mislynch in [REDACTED], which I called correctly based on the exact same vibes.

Because sadly, I have null or town reads on most of the PeregrineV wagon. I just have no idea why he was lynched.

There is clearly scum on the wagon. It’s a fact of Mafia. That you don’t even want to look at a completed Town flip wagon as opposed to a smaller wagon on a non-flipped player is suspect.

Here’s the wagon again … who are your Town reads and who are your Null reads?

Dekes

,

Feysal

,

Empking

,

SpyreX

,

Gut

,

kanyeknowsbest

,

Magister Ludi

, VitaminR[/color],

Furcolow

,

Andrius

,

Espeonage

,

gandalf5166

Color-coded the above list. Green in some degree of a null read, Red is anti-town, blue is some degree of a town read.

So basically you're saying that none of the following constitute me telling everyone that Gandalf needs to be killed?

Actually they all basically look like you whining in general. But that’s just my read.

Perhaps I'm giving people too much credit to be able to decipher something so simple. Do you not think that Feysal and/or the other players in this game are smart enough to figure out that I think Gandalf needs to be vigged without me explicitly making the statement that you suggested previously?

Spyrex makes a lot of good points, except for #4. I don't think people should ever be admonished for calling out another player for not contributing, even if they themselves are not contributing much. It's a null tell at best.

No, it’s not a Null tell. Spyrex has already explained it well – Cognitive Dissonance is a strong scum-tell.

I disagree wholly. That sort of scumtell is only even remotely viable in a situation where you KNOW that everyone in the game is playing with the exact same degree of logical thinking. Are you really going to assert that everyone here is completely logical and understands things exactly the same way? If not, cognitive dissonance is not only a subjective conclusion but it's very weak given that many players play by gut as much as they play by logic. And some players are just plain bad/VI.

On that note, Spyrex makes a GREAT point on why Kanye is town, so thank you for coming at it from a more analytical standpoint. I pretty much cba to do that much research after the hour or so I spent prepping a post in [REDACTED]. Everyone on the Kanye wagon should read Spyrex's post and attempt to refute it. Otherwise they should GTFO and stop being scum/retarded. Anyone who opts to stay on the Kanye wagon without giving a reasonable response to Spyrex's post will become the direct focal point of ire for the rest of the game until they are dead.

[Ellibereth]

tbh I didn't even remember my vote was on kanye.
Did Andy do something earlygame that was really town because he's probably scum.
S/M actually posting stuff is wierd

But ooba probably IS town for his posting in general today and his putting us on the townlist when there is no real reason to put us there.

???
I think CSL meta runs against you with sometihng I saw Vi post before. In the CSL-town games he at least posted random crap.

[Ellibereth]

Unvote

[Mastermind of Sin]

Andy's seemed relatively sensible to me so far this game. I do realize that he supposedly didn't have a role yesterday, but I haven't seen any great change between the two days that would indicate to me that he's playing differently (and someone without a role has playing like town in their best interests imo). That being said, I don't know much about his meta so my town read on him is tenuous, probably the lightest of all my town reads. Although I can't for the life of me remember why I think Ludi is town. Maybe it's cuz he just feels different than when he was scum in [REDACTED].

[Ellibereth]

ludi's ooba now right

[Ellibereth]

I've only looked at people's recent stuff
did Andy ever saw whatever happened if he died when he had no role??

[Mastermind of Sin]

Oh right. Well, I've already explained why I think ooba is town, but the Ludi bit helps me feel better about that read.

[Andrius]

fyi agm is mostl likely the scum seraph
thor is MIA and has 0 posts in the seraph qt
agm's all like nooooooooo talking to normal people is baaaad

and yeah i can confirm what magna said throughout the day

about seraph stuff

p.s. hurin as a seraph makes no sense whatsoever as he spent his time strapped to a chair but whatever bastard game is bastard

[SpyreX]

Look at this...

When MoI and MoS aren't bickering at each other its almost like...

wait for it

They're both town. *gasp*

[MagnaofIllusion]

When I have more time in the AM I'll address why the following is happening ...

UNVOTE: Kayne
VOTE: Sun and Moon

But first a question

-

What do you do to a uber-lurking Hydra that has provided zero content all game long when one of the heads, whose excuse for said lack of content was "I have no time and am overloaded", turns around and signs up for a new game as a solo player?

Imaginary cookies to everyone who gets the right answer!!!!

[Mastermind of Sin]

Modkill?

[Mastermind of Sin]

Look at this...

When MoI and MoS aren't bickering at each other its almost like...

wait for it

They're both town. *gasp*

Also, touche. I'm satisfied with the Seraph thing being a null tell on MoI now that we have some confirmation from Andy. I don't see a good reason not to trust what they're saying at this time. (If one of them comes up scum, though, I'll reevaluate.)

[SpyreX]

(one of them will)
(its Andy)

[Will-o-wisp]

[Will-o-wisp]

Finally caught up.

[Andrius]

When I have more time in the AM I'll address why the following is happening ...

UNVOTE: Kayne
VOTE: Sun and Moon

But first a question

-

What do you do to a uber-lurking Hydra that has provided zero content all game long when one of the heads, whose excuse for said lack of content was "I have no time and am overloaded", turns around and signs up for a new game as a solo player?

Imaginary cookies to everyone who gets the right answer!!!!

Yeah.
They deserve death.
But we are strapped for TIME and although I'd be fine swinging over that-a-way I don't think we can coordinate a massive shift in time.
Though you made it sound, in-QT, that it was the HYDRA signing up for new games, not just one head of the hydra.

(one of them will)
(its Andy)

(hey spy remember i dont have a role)
(you should pray to whoever has powerz to help a brother out)

[ooba]

Re-reading end of D1 and today's posts again ..

@WoW: What's that picture supposed to mean?

[Feysal]

Caught up. Time for replies.

Well if we aren’t killing Feysal I’m laying down two lists. Any shots outside this group result in me begging Minaday for a Daykill tomorrow morning –

Actively scummy

– Dekes, Espeonage, Empking

Lurkers / Active lurkers

– Wraith, Sun and Moon

Quoting this mostly to acknowledge that I've seen it. And the inclusion of MoS and Wraith within a few posts.

Feysal clearly doesn't have the interests of the town at heart, since he did NOT kill Gandalf last night and instead (supposedly) tried to kill Furcolow just because Furc asked him to. He's scum, and there's no way I trust him to kill who he's supposed to.

Disagree with your conclusion and reasoning both. Furcolow claimed that vigging him would have pro-town consequences, and so I targeted him. Even if he had not asked for it, I did not consider Gandalf, and I don't understand why I should necessarily have targeted him if I wanted to be pro-town. Even actual town can disagree on reads, and for the record, I don't think Gandalf is either a jester or scum.

But if you were both not Mafia why would neither wagon have gone through in the first place? This is the part of the argument you don't have an answer for.

I don't know either, and I can't know. However, it pays to remember that there was necessarily town on the PeregrineV wagon, probably the majority of it. I would venture a guess that many of those townies felt dissatisfied with the wagons on me and kanye, they may have genuinely believed PeregrineV to be more likely to be scum, or they were simply tired of the long day and when something happened that looked likely to bring the day to a close, they joined in. It was probably all of that, combined with scum joining in the mislynch. I would imagine that the scum were surprised by the sudden momentum, in which case the early voters on the wagon would be less likely to be scum.

I think that in the end, arguments like these overestimate the influence of the mafia on the lynch choice. Scum don't want to be seen leading town into mislynches after all, and if they tried, they may simply have been unable to persuade townies to join in lynching either me or kanye. Now that I think of it, it may have been in the best interest of the scum team to wait for town to make the final move to decide who to lynch, and then pile on to avoid a no lynch, thus dodging most of the blame. So yes, I can see both of us being non-mafia. Indifference from the scum about who is lynched can indicate that neither choice is scum.

I do remember that Andrius was pushing for my lynch quite strongly at the time. That is the only thing that gives me any serious doubt about whether kanye is town, since Andrius could have been scum trying to save his partner.

What do you do to a uber-lurking Hydra that has provided zero content all game long when one of the heads, whose excuse for said lack of content was "I have no time and am overloaded", turns around and signs up for a new game as a solo player?

???

Okay, on one hand I completely agree on that being scummy, and reason to lynch. But on the other hand...

Having noted PeregrineV's absence, I had a look at the activity overview, and discovered he had been gone for five days, longer by far than any other player. I next looked at his sitewide activity, to see if perhaps he was on an unannounced V/LA. Turns out that after his last post in this game, PeregrineV has posted over 60 times in other games, and signed up for one more.

Deja vu? That sounds almost exactly like my reason for suspecting PeregrineV. The only difference is that he was a solo player, and did not claim to be overloaded. Otherwise, the behaviors match. So I have to ask, why was the case on PeregrineV bad, and how is the case on Sun and Moon any better?

[Andrius]

AGM just claimed scum seraph in QT.

[Andrius]

WELL FUCK
I HAD A POST AND IT DECIDED TO EAT ITSELF
OK WELL BASICALLY

fuck
this
shit