Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[Junpei]

1) Why is Anxiety voting Crab Canon, I don't understand?

2) I agree that there is a decent case on Amrun, but I believe that given what we can hypothesise about the setup, and given what Anxiety has said/done, he is a more viable lynch.

Snake, you need to take take and post content period.

[saulres]

1) Why is Anxiety voting Crab Canon, I don't understand?

GNR was newbie scum. The two quotes 4nxi3ty have show GNR claiming (from 4nxi3ty-being-town-POV) that confirmed town were scum but CC wasn't.

I've also noted this:

Can someone explain this bandwagon on Junpei to me? I'm a little confused on it.

That feels like the same false confusion he used in this:

I'm kinda confused on this. Do we know how many mafia members there? I didn't see it in the opening post?

So GNR-CC-Junpei scum team?

I'm rereading the entire thread now, slowly, and have found some other things, but want to get all my thoughts together (or enough tells found) before I place another vote.

[Crab Canon]

You guys do realize that we were the ones that helped turn the tables on GNR after things started to swing away from him, right?

[saulres]

I'm rereading the entire thread now, slowly, and have found some other things, but want to get all my thoughts together (or enough tells found) before I place another vote.

And yes, I'm not going to base my votes now exclusively on what GNR said.

[Crab Canon]

We could have easily hopped on the Anxiety bandwagon at that point and pushed it through on confirmed scum GNR. Feel free to look at it yourself. Also looking at that is a point in Anxiety's favor as town, unless you think there were two scum run up there.

[Junpei]

Why should we not think that two scum were premiere wagons of a given day? Coincidence or is there a good reason?

[4nxi3ty]

You guys do realize that we were the ones that helped turn the tables on GNR after things started to swing away from him, right?

actually you voted for gnr after ace had already unvoted my wagon and changed to gnr(see post 907). things were starting to swing towards gnr.

[Crab Canon]

Why should we not think that two scum were premiere wagons of a given day? Coincidence or is there a good reason?

I've played probably well over 100 games of mafia, and this almost never happens. It's not impossible, but town's are not that good. Running up two scum simultaneously would probably be more a matter of luck than reality.

@Anxiety - that wagon would not have turned without the momentum of our vote and persistence. Our vote was the lynch pin that greatly shifted the momentum. Additionally, you can see I was after him straight out of the gate. While we left the wagon momentarily, it was mostly because Juls and I needed to come to an agreement about it internally.

[Junpei]

Setal Speed Mafia is where town said "no way could all 3 mafia of hardlurked and not voted the days' main and pretty much only premier wagon day 1. Yet that's exactly what happened.

Also, scum never bus, right Crab Canon?

[4nxi3ty]

your right about helping lynch him but i am not gonna rule out the possibility of bussing.

also you lied about pushing the lynch after things swayed away from gnr:

You guys do realize that we were the ones that helped turn the tables on GNR after things started to swing away from him

you pushed the lynch after my wagon died, evidence by ace's 907 post.

[Crab Canon]

Setal Speed Mafia is where town said "no way could all 3 mafia of hardlurked and not voted the days' main and pretty much only premier wagon day 1. Yet that's exactly what happened.

Also, scum never bus, right Crab Canon?

You're not even comparing similar things. Of course scum can lurk. That happens all the time. The odds of town being efficient and well tuned in enough to run up two scum simultaneously is extremely unlikely. The reason it's unlikely is that you basically need the scum players to assist you in doing this. That is against their win condition and not likely to happen unless they are completely aloof. Not impossible, but improbable.

In terms of bussing, yes that can happen. I'm not saying we're clear by any means, and I dont' expect anyone to believe that. What I am saying is, look at it and use your best judgement to tell if I was being genuine in my desire to lynch GNR or not. Personally, I think it's pretty obvious given the circumstances surrounding that lynch that I was actively scumhunting GNR rather than faking my way onto a buss.

your right about helping lynch him but i am not gonna rule out the possibility of bussing.

also you lied about pushing the lynch after things swayed away from gnr:

You guys do realize that we were the ones that helped turn the tables on GNR after things started to swing away from him

you pushed the lynch after my wagon died, evidence by ace's 907 post.

I didn't lie about shit. Ace did not dismantle the wagon on you.

Here is Ace's post switching votes:

I'd rather go with Riggs today since 4nxi3ty's claim doesn't read scum to me.

Unvote: Vote:Guy_Named_Riggs

Still haven't done any indepth stuff on players not named 4nxi3ty or GNR, but nothing has caught my eye recently either.

My post immediately after this is my wall post with indepth reads on everyone in the game, including GNR. I clearly laid out the most logical explanation for why GNR needed to die more than anyone else, and it was a domino effect on him from there. So, you're being more than disingenuous when you say I had nothing to do with it. I had pretty much everything to do with it. I articulated the clearest case against him.

[Junpei]

Okay, sure, it is improbable but not impossible. However the weight of the validity of "there were two main scum wagons day X(i forget the day it was)" appears to have the same truth value as "Anxiety is scum". And placing (on a scale of 0 to 10) a value of 2 or so on the former, is doing the same to the latter, which I can not agree with(I'd put something like 8 to the truth value of the latter statement). So, it would stand to reason that either it is possible for a statement to have two conflicting truth values (hint: it's not) or your reasoning is flawed.

Re: Bussing; fair enough.

As far as Ace dismantling the wagon; Crab Canon is obviously right, it was much more of an effort by them rather than Ace that got the wagon started.

[4nxi3ty]

lie #2:

Our vote was the lynch pin that greatly shifted the momentum.

evidence:

I don't like this Anxiety lynch at all to be honest, his attitude and early claim both read as town-tells.

Vi, I'm more than happy with a Riggs lynch but there seems to be a lack of support for it

Crab, I would love an explanation behind your Locke town read along with the rest of your reads when you're done sorting out your disagreement.

I would ask if you can give Ace a note/post about your thoughts on our Riggs

*nods!*

-SK

*throws both hands up*
*gets rope*

LOL 853.

I don't know about you but I'd rather take my chances with Riggs than Anxiety. I know I've said I wave a white flag and cry when I draw scum, but this is Riggs almost literally doing so inthread.

I'd rather go with Riggs today since 4nxi3ty's claim doesn't read scum to me.

Unvote: Vote:Guy_Named_Riggs

GNR - This is another slot we are having a hard time getting on the same page about. D1, Baltar thought he was mostly noob town and Juls thought he was scum. Juls lost some interest in GNR today, finding him noob town. Have to say he's a tough read. There are times when he looks pretty competent and is pressuring people. Other times he is completely lost and gets emotional (voting himself). It is possible that GNR is just floundering this game. Vi having a scum read on him in close quarters still weighs heavy, and he made excuses for not posting everything when clearly asked to do so. That seemed likely intentional. Overall he falls on the scummy and would be a good lynch to sort things out as well.

unvote, vote: guy name riggs

momentum had already shifted from me to riggs.

[Crab Canon]

no, it fucking had not shifted. everything shifted after my case and vote. you can post whatever snippets you like. look at the reactions after my vote.

[4nxi3ty]

scummy evidence #3(parts edited for emphasis):

*

points fist of imminent death at Guy_Named_Riggs

*

If Sotty were to flip scum GNR would be my number one target.

I would be willing to get on a ace, sotty, or Junpei wagon today. I might consider a saulres wagon but it's awful late to start that up.

-d1

*eyebrow lower*
*

votes for Guy_Named_Riggs

*

Vote: GNR

@Vi - my biggest hangup with GNR*edit* Why would he do that as scum? Why would he malign his name with your words if he's scum?

Anxiety is scum too, imo.

-d2

vi clearly was going to push gnr's lynch so you vote too but than imply he could be town cause "why would scum do that?"

also, gnr is still your number one target despite sottyrulez flipping town?

confirm vote: cc

[Crab Canon]

the thing you're missing there is that Juls was wary of the GNR lynch. She had the stronger feelings of his towniness on D1. I (VP) thought he was scum and placed that initial vote. We had to internally reconcile our feelings, which we did and I was clear about.

No matter what you say here, you cannot refute I had the biggest case on him apart from Vi and my vote lead to the domino effect that resulted in his lynch. You can argue semantics about it all day, not gonna change those facts.

[Crab Canon]

Honestly, I don't even get what you're trying to argue. my case was perfectly clear on GNR. you're acting like it wasn't. Reads can waver, but I couldn't have been more clear from my lynching vote about my feelings on everyone in the game and why GNR was the best choice.

[4nxi3ty]

lie #4:

D1, Baltar thought he was mostly noob town and Juls thought he was scum.

the thing you're missing there is that Juls was wary of the GNR lynch. She had the stronger feelings of his towniness on D1. I (VP) thought he was scum and placed that initial vote.

[saulres]

lie #4:

D1, Baltar thought he was mostly noob town and Juls thought he was scum.

the thing you're missing there is that Juls was wary of the GNR lynch. She had the stronger feelings of his towniness on D1. I (VP) thought he was scum and placed that initial vote.

GREAT catch, 4nxi3ty! That's the kind of scumslip I like to see, when they know enough about their story to remember the gist, but get a key detail wrong.

Vote: CC

[Crab Canon]

that was in reference to early D1.

Here is the order of things from our QT:

Early D1 - both juls and VP are present. VP initially thinks GNR is bumbling idiot town, Juls thinks he's scummy.
Late D1 - VP is persuaded by the arguments Juls makes against GNR and agrees with her he is scummy. Juls has a change of heart and begins to think he's town. VP leaves to drive 3000 miles, juls takes over the hydra alone.

Early D2 - VP comes in and says he believes GNR to be the best lynch choice after having his reads swayed by Juls' arguments, votes. Juls, still hydraing alone basically because I was on the road, decides to pursue other avenues because she's not certain on GNR.
Late D2 - VP returns as Juls is leaving on her vacation. VP comes back and reviews the entire game, compiles reads, talks to Juls before she leaves. We reconcile all of our reads so there are no disagreements in thread. Wall post happens with clear reasoning on GNR.

All of this was made clear throughout the thread, but I understand you're slow and probably can't keep up with the timeline. I hope this clarifies your "lies" for you, so you can stop making idiotic accusations that make zero sense. kthx

p.edit - I really got to stop playing with noobs. I'm sorry, I like you guys, but you're not making any effort to actually follow this game and it's quite irritating.

[saulres]

You won't have to worry about playing with me again after this game ends. It's going to be my last one. But I'm going to make my best effort to win this.

And I could say the same about never wanting to play with hydras again (I have already). You're posting now things that happened in your QT which we have no access to. So all we can go on is what's posted in this thread.

Late D1 - VP is persuaded by the arguments Juls makes against GNR and agrees with her he is scummy. Juls has a change of heart and begins to think he's town. VP leaves to drive 3000 miles, juls takes over the hydra alone.

Here's Juls' take on it:

Second, I expressed suspicion of GNR yesterday. He is in my top 3 as I have stated very clearly. However, I was backing off of it a little bit given some of my suspicion of him was tied to Sotty. With Sotty being dead-town, it reduced some of the suspicion of him. I guess VP was convinced by my arguments in the QT

There she indicates she had GNR as scum

until

SR flipped. The last thing she said about GNR before Day 2 ended was this:

GNR, while I do feel is scummy, I want to discuss him more with my other half when he returns.

When you returned this is what you posted:

I'm back suckas.

Vote: GNR

Juls had somewhat convinced me of her thoughts on him from what she left me in our QT

So the following statement is not backed up

at all

in this thread:

She had the stronger feelings of his towniness on D1

[saulres]

EBWOP:

The last thing she said about GNR before Day 2 ended was this:

That should read "before Day 1 ended"

[Junpei]

Oh god, hydra dissonance is confusing.

I'm engulfed in another game right now, but I'm going to check out this dissonance myself to ensure its validity, this would certainly be a nice slip if it is true, but it is confusing so I'll wait till I analyze it more.

[4nxi3ty]

lie #5:

Here is the order of things from our QT:

Early D1 - both juls and VP are present. VP initially thinks GNR is bumbling idiot town, Juls thinks he's scummy.
Late D1 - VP is persuaded by the arguments Juls makes against GNR and agrees with her he is scummy. Juls has a change of heart and begins to think he's town. VP leaves to drive 3000 miles, juls takes over the hydra alone.

-this implies you and juls were talking about gnr early d1.

GNR did not come up in any of our conversations (probably because VP didn't notice him).

-this quote happened in the middle of d1 after vp leaves to move and juls takes over.

[Junpei]

Okay, wow. Uh, I don't know what to say, these are contradictory statements regarding the thought process of the hydra.

I guess the reason I'm so surprised is that Juls and VP are considered good players, and these are huge slips.

vote CC

This is L-1, so everyone now is aware of that.