Mini 1260 - Last Will Mafia III (Over)

[LlamaFluff]

Vote Count

StrangerCoug (2) - Shattered Viewpoint, Amrun
Shattered Viewpoint (1) - StrangerCoug
Darox (1) - CooLDoG

Not Voting (5) - Fishythefish, Darox, Rhinox

With 9 votes it takes 5 to lynch

[StrangerCoug]

Rhinox still has to write up a case on me if he wants to make friends by hammering me.

For now, VOTE: Shattered Viewpoint for the same reason I voted him on Day 1, but that may change based on how Rhinox answers Darox's question and Darox answers CooLDoG's question. Amrun should still consider herself safe from me at the moment.

What do you mean by make friends by hammering you?

It's going to look suspicious if you just plop all three of your votes on me arbitrarily as that denies town a lot of information. The mechanics may work a bit differently, but scumhunting is still the main way to do this—the mechanics, in fact, make this very important. I have very good reason to believe you know what makes a good case, what makes a bad case, and what makes just plain laziness. You have a lot of sway here!

I feel Rhinox's reaction to Darox's question as sensible, so I'm going to look at how Darox responds to the same thing.

[Darox]

I'd quote my original post but chamber is dead and it just wouldn't be the same.
I'd like to vote StrangerCoug too but Rhinox controlling 3/5 votes needed for a lynch makes me uneasy on principle.

What I can do is update my will.

[StrangerCoug]

A case would be nice. I can't defend against what I can't see.

[CooLDoG]

I'd quote my original post but chamber is dead and it just wouldn't be the same.
I'd like to vote StrangerCoug too but Rhinox controlling 3/5 votes needed for a lynch makes me uneasy on principle.

What I can do is update my will.

DIDN't Answer my question. Doesn't hunt scum. new question: Why are you not scum hunting?

[Fishythefish]

Just checking in/avoiding prod. I'll post properly tomorrow.

[Fishythefish]

@SC: why did you hammer whisper so early?

[StrangerCoug]

She had claimed, for one. For another, if you're voting someone after the RVS ends, you had better be fine with a rope around that person's neck. I saw her argument with chamber and I saw very little content come out of her side. From what I get, Darox is scummy and there's nothing else of use by the town. There's

PLENTY

of other things of use by other players.

[CooLDoG]

hmmm... I might do an SK read today or tomorrow.

[Rhinox]

^I knew who I was talking about when I was talking about you. I just mixed the D with the R. Yeah, go ahead, don't put too much time into it though.

ok

@rhinox, What were you basing the fishy thing on? Was it completely meta that led you to give your vote to him? Or was it his town win/loss record?

It was meta only. I don't even pay attention to W/L records. Everytime I've played with fishy as town, he's been solidly obv-town and made smart cases, exactly who as town I'd want to have my vote.

Fishy hasn't given me as strong of a town vibe in this game as he has in past games though.

[Rhinox]

coug did you know you were hammering whisper yesterday when you voted him/her?

[Shattered Viewpoint]

I'm not. Pay attention.

You're not what? Please be clearer next time.

In other news, this game is stalling. More SC votes, please.

[Fishythefish]

I really dislike SC's hammer here. It was early in the day, and the wagon on whisper was very much active - it's hard to believe anyone

wouldn't

want to see more of that slot before the end of the day. Particularly since SC never exchanged so much as a word with whisper. whisper just wasn't scummy enough to warrant that early a lynch, and SC being a serious lynch contender gives him a solid scum motivation. I also didn't like his early game play, where he just didn't look interested in determining whether his reads were right. He looks like scum to me.

VOTE: SC

Darox has done bugger all here. His vote on whisper is unexplained, and he's not voting SC because Rhinox controlling three votes "makes him uneasy on principle". What does this mean? Does he want to lynch Rhinox? Why does this stop him voting SC? Nobody knows - this sort of fence-sitting would sit very well with Darox being SC's partner. On the other hand, his commentary on his will makes me think he's town - it's something town have much more reason to think about than scum, and it would be a pretty sharp scumbag who thought to fake that.

CoolDog reads like town to me. He responded well to my early accusations, and just seems to be scumhunting.

SV gives me a carefree vibe, which I tend to think of as town.

I don't see anything much in Amrun's play that lets me get a read on him.

I'm wondering about a "everyone leave your vote to Rhinox" strategy. Frankly, if he's scum I can't see us winning this game - there's no real way we could stop him getting a town lynch today, and tomorrow will be LYLO with the odds stacked against us at best. Leaving votes to him cements that, but things are so bad anyway that that's no big deal. If he's town, leaving votes to him really forces the scum to shoot at him, and that's a good thing if we have a doc/watcher/BG/etc., or if there's any obvtown for him to leave his votes to. Thoughts, anyone?

[Amrun]

If you think Rhinox is scum, then why are you not voting for him? I'm confused here.

[Fishythefish]

My post doesn't say Rhinox is scum at all. In fact, I don't think Rhinox is scum.

I'm saying that IF Rhinox is scum, we've pretty well lost. Because in that case we need to lynch really well, and the scum have far too much control over the lynch for that to be likely. So we might as well put him at the top of our wills - if he's town, that's a strong move, and if he's scum it doesn't really matter.

[StrangerCoug]

coug did you know you were hammering whisper yesterday when you voted him/her?

Yes I did.

I'm not. Pay attention.

You're not what? Please be clearer next time.

I'm not heavily into the notion that you and Amrun are scum together. It should have been clear in context that I was denying what you claimed I was doing.

I really dislike SC's hammer here. It was early in the day, and the wagon on whisper was very much active - it's hard to believe anyone

wouldn't

want to see more of that slot before the end of the day. Particularly since SC never exchanged so much as a word with whisper. whisper just wasn't scummy enough to warrant that early a lynch, and SC being a serious lynch contender gives him a solid scum motivation.

If a person is scummy enough to warrant an early lynch, then a person is scummy enough to warrant an early lynch. It was crystal-clear to me that whispersilk was not going to scumhunt properly, and I do not regret what I have done, especially since I have modded a game where scum was quicklynched on Day 1.

I also didn't like his early game play, where he just didn't look interested in determining whether his reads were right.

Could you provide examples please?

I'm wondering about a "everyone leave your vote to Rhinox" strategy. Frankly, if he's scum I can't see us winning this game - there's no real way we could stop him getting a town lynch today, and tomorrow will be LYLO with the odds stacked against us at best. Leaving votes to him cements that, but things are so bad anyway that that's no big deal. If he's town, leaving votes to him really forces the scum to shoot at him, and that's a good thing if we have a doc/watcher/BG/etc., or if there's any obvtown for him to leave his votes to. Thoughts, anyone?

I'm leaning toward Rhinox-town, so I see no big concern here.

If you think Rhinox is scum, then why are you not voting for him? I'm confused here.

I don't see where Fishythefish takes a stance either way in his last post. He is placing both options into consideration and discussing the consequences of Rhinox being each alignment.

[Fishythefish]

Did you hammer whisper because he wasn't going to scumhunt properly, or because you thought he was scum? I'm surprised if your read on him was strong enough that you wanted him dead without seeing more.

By your early game play, I mean your fight with Amrun and SV. I didn't feel you were trying to read two players you thought were scum. We discussed this at the time - see 112, 125 and 129. Similar theme, actually - you seem far more confident in your reads than I'd expect given the actual information in the game.

[StrangerCoug]

Did you hammer whisper because he wasn't going to scumhunt properly, or because you thought he was scum?

Both. My scum read on him stemmed from the lack of proper scumhunting out of whispersilk.

By your early game play, I mean your fight with Amrun and SV. I didn't feel you were trying to read two players you thought were scum. We discussed this at the time - see 112, 125 and 129. Similar theme, actually - you seem far more confident in your reads than I'd expect given the actual information in the game.

Confidence is not a bad thing, Fishythefish.

[Fishythefish]

It is if it leads you to ignore or not look for information that would tell you more. Here, I'm struggling to believe you can really have had the level of confidence your actions suggest. And your confidence gave you an easy way to argue with Amrun and SV, and let you hammer a wagon which was a rival to your own, so faking that confidence has strong scum motivation.

[Darox]

5 votes to win, if Rhinox is scum they have 4/5 of the votes required. Not a pretty scene. I don't know if I like Fishy's idea of handing him all the votes and saying 'well shit' if he's scum though. It's not quite as bad as L-1. We don't need to lynch perfectly, we just need to hand off votes correctly if we do mislynch.

I mean, if he does get 4 votes we know he's confirmed town, but that's like leaving someone at L-1 in LYLO. Either we confirm them as town or we LOSE THE GAME.

The hesitation to vote came from the idea that 2 votes is in hammer range. Even though this only applies to Rhinox, it still sets me on edge, especially with the premature hammer D1.

[Amrun]

I do not regret what I have done, especially since I have modded a game where scum was quicklynched on Day 1.

You do realize that quicklynch in your game was entirely scumdriven, right? Did you have any reason to think it was similar with whispersilk?


I agree with fishy on this one. Coug's explanations just don't hold water.

Perhaps we should talk about where we are going to leave our votes before anyone at all is hammered, in order to prevent yesterday's issue from reoccuring.

[Fishythefish]

@Darox: the way I look at it, if Rhinox is scum here the scum have a ridiculous amount of influence over the lynch. Imagine trying to lynch scum in 5-4 lylo. If scumRhinox wants to he can let us win, but practically it's just not going to happen. So the fact that leaving votes to Rhinox throws the game if he's scum is giving up only a tiny, tiny chance of victory. The boost our chances get if he's town outweighs that; forcing scum to shoot at Rhinox seems like a great idea to me. It means they can't target their kill, and protective PRs are in a good position.

[Rhinox]

No matter what we do with the votes we still need to lynch scum. If we don't hit scum today tomorrow is actually MYLO regardless of the vote distribution - kinda backwards compared to normal games, 3-2 or 2-1 at the start of a day equals mylo, 2-2 at the start of a day equals lylo (as long as votes get passed to townies) (1-1 at start of the day winner is whoever controls the vote, obv), 1-2 at the start of the day equals a loss even if that lone townie controlls the vote due to being nightkilled. Not sure if that changes anyone's thinking.

I think that because I already have 3 votes, fishy's plan is probably the best. It probably would have been better to spread the votes around so that the game couldn't be lost on account of one wrong will choice, but there's no way around that at this point, even if we lynch scum today. The upside of the plan at this point is that we'll always have 1 confirmed town for the rest of the game after today. Of course there is a leap of faith required that I am actually town, but once you get past that my will choice is like a cop investigation if I'm nked - a cop that either confirms innocents or loses the game >.> Another upside is that it takes scum influence out of the lynch, but the townie with all the votes still has to make good decisions.

Choosing to not stack votes on me isn't really going to change how the course of the game will play out. If we lynch scum today, there is still a scenario where 1 player will end up with 5 votes tomorrow and everyone else with 1. If we mislynch today and the lynched townie sends his vote elsewhere, it doesn't really matter because I can still be nked leaving the vote distribution as 4-2-1-1-1 - still the same scenario with the downside of leaving scum with more control over the vote. There are also possibilities that lead to a vote distribution of 3-2-2-1-1 tomorrow regardless of who gets lynched today but we have no say if the distribution ends up like that, only the scum would have the option to get us there depending on their choices, and I'm not comfortably giving scum the option to set the distribution - I'd rather force the decision right now from the town's end by making the decision to stack votes from here on out.

Thoughts?

All that aside, this game hasn't been that long and their aren't many players so I'll look through some iso's later to see if anything stands out. should be more manageable and helpful in a game this size.

[Fishythefish]

Good point about MYLO/LYLO. That means that at some point we

could

no lynch at 3:2 or 2:1 - similarly to how you can no lynch at 4:2 or 3:1 in a normal game. Depends heavily on circumstances, but it's an option to consider.

@Rhinox: you should consider not giving your townreads here, or if you do consider shaking up your will a little compared to what you say in the thread. Don't tell the scum whether they can secure a big vote stack by killing you, in other words.

[Rhinox]

Correct on both points

I expect any competant player to be able to guess who I'm leaning town and scum on just based on my reads and who I'm suspecting but I'll avoid posting lists or anything like that and stick mostly to pointing out my scum reads. I feel its important for me to get some thorough reads today though since any lynch that may happen that I'm not a part of will be guarenteed to have at least 1 scum on it.