The Children of Húrin Mafia (GREAT REVIVAL)

[Gut]

Actually when you get down to the heart of it before lylo when there's a guilty and then SURPRISE MILLER you lynch the miller.

That's kinda mafia 101.

Except for the part where they had claimed miller previously, albeit just to ML, so S&M aren't surprise millers in any relevant sense.

[MagnaofIllusion]

MOD – I’ll be LA from 4pm EST today until Monday morning for my usual weekend family duties.

More Sun and Moon Votes Please!!!!

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Magna should ask the mod whether that would prevent his death though, otherwise it's a waste of a good-seraph action.

Unsurprisingly the answer is non-commital.

--

Issues:
1) Would Magna rather die so that if he flips Town_Turin S&M will look scummy as hell.

2) Who he believes is scum a) if S&M is scum and b) if S&M is town.

3) Whether he wants S&M lynched today if the suicide is prevented.

1. Um, no. There is no way I support choosing to die as opposed to scum I have a Guilty on. When I get Nightkilled my flip produces the same exact result. And that put scum Sun and Moon in a quandary if I do get saved. Of course it may not matter given there is no guarantee that deactivating the ability saves me or that AGM / Thor will not reactivate it on their turn after you in hopes of scoring an easy Town death..

In any event I'm going to keep pushing my Guilty until my role changes.

3. Yes. What better lynch do we have? I’d support Dekes / Espeonage for certain but doesn’t look like any takers there. Empking flipping Town / 3rd Party would make me even more certain that Sun and Moon are scum.

2. This takes more space so I answered it last –

If Sun and Moon are Scum (which, again, they are ….)

–

At best one partner on the wagon at this stage – probably someone who is voting Sun and Moon but not actively suggesting they are scum and looking for any alternate explanation – Andy and Elli best fit this bill.

Partners are also likely found in players who either voted Sun and Moon early but jumped off quickly or who keep saying ‘hey, I’d vote for them but not yet” – In this pool I’d probably finger WoW, Dekes and maybe mockingjaye on gut without review.

At most one partner is strongly defending scum Sun and Moon – Gut looks to be that suspect for me. As said before, if Sun and Moon is scum I doubt Magister is.

If Sun and Moon are Town (yes, let’s indulge fantasy land here)

–

Multiple scum on the wagon during the day – I’d look between those players still there and the other side of the early jumpers so Mastermind, Empking and Spyrex would be the best bets.

At most one Scum strongly defending him since they know he isn’t aligned with them – Magister actually looks like a good candidate in this scenario as he reaps huge Cred benefits from his position. And if Magister is scum Kayne stands a good chance to for reasons elsewhere in this post.

Feysal and Furc are outside shots if Sun and Moon are Town. Odds of a Town Vig, Town Arsonist, 3rd Party killing Role and Mafia with a kill seems very, very low.

In that regard I wonder why there has been no talk about the chances of a Straight up Town Vig when we already have a flipped Town Arsonist. Curious, you might say.

--

I think Magna's town.

I think we should just not lynch Magna OR S&M, thereby letting Magna die tonight (sadly), which saves a lynch the one way. If he flips Town_Turin then SHENANIGANS and we reexamine S&M.

Insert face-palm pic here.

--

Magna, what are you reads on the four players I outlined several posts ago, those being Dekes, empking, kanye, and Heord.

I’ve said Dekes was scum from Day 2. That hasn’t changed.

Empking I’ve also called scum since Day 1. His claim of role enabler is Null and his play has been no-stellar. The only point going for him is that I don’t think he’s an ardent busser and he’s been on Sun and Moon all Day long. If Sun and Moon is scum (and hint – I think they are) he’s very unlikely a partner.

Kayne only makes sense as scum as a Sun and Moon partner or your partner. That he’s not been ‘killed’ by the ‘Vig’ despite escaping the wagon two Days in a row makes no sense from a Town oriented perspective for those shots.

Herod is dead null.

Holy cow Andrius I checked your wiki and you were a miller vigilante in Saint Kerrigans game. How come you didn't believe that here?

I don’t know what to say other than that is so bad.

“Hey Andy, you were a Miller Vig (who started that way) in an unrelated game from a completely different Mod! Why don’t you believe Sun and Moon’s ridiculous claim on that basis alone? Ignore that the facts are COMPLETELY different”.

--

Yes.
I thought MOI was lying and I knew he couldn't give a reason for doing Gandalf first.

What exactly was I lying about? That I knew the Seraphs both said they didn’t enable Gandalf’s role?

[MagnaofIllusion]

Except for the part where they had claimed miller previously, albeit just to ML, so S&M aren't surprise millers in any relevant sense.

And again, no possible way he fabricated that Night 1 (after no-one claimed Miller Day 1 as is proper) to have an 'ally' to ward of Investigation result that they had to have expected.

Oh wait, that's exactly what happened ....

[Furcolow]

I'm here. I've been sort of busy in RL.

[Empking]

What exactly was I lying about? That I knew the Seraphs both said they didn%u2019t enable Gandalf%u2019s role?

I thought you were lying about the Seraph's ability to grant Gandalf's & Andy's roles.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Wait, whut?

You thought I was lying about the Seraph's abilities when I said they both said they didn't have said ability and you knew this to be true since you did?

I'm confused ...

[Empking]

Wait, whut?

You thought I was lying about the Seraph's abilities when I said they both said they didn't have said ability and you knew this to be true since you did?

I'm confused ...

I suppose I misunderstood what you meant by "granting latent abilities". Why did Mina object to Gandalf's claim of recovering his role, did she think that he'd be alignmentless with nothing to fix it?

[Gut]

Except for the part where they had claimed miller previously, albeit just to ML, so S&M aren't surprise millers in any relevant sense.

And again, no possible way he fabricated that Night 1 (after no-one claimed Miller Day 1 as is proper) to have an 'ally' to ward of Investigation result that they had to have expected.

Oh wait, that's exactly what happened ....

I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret this but let me try to get through to you one more time.

I've never thought or said S&M is 100% confirmed anything. Your stated possability is just that, a possability. Because of the miller claim that came prior to your cop investigation your investigation is completely meaningless unless you think amrun and ludi are scum together, and you don't seem to think this. Because your objective cop investigation is meaningless you instead have to use subjective means to determine S&M's alignment, which I admit you've done, but I respectfully disagree with your conclusions. The issue is that you continue to frame your subjective reads as objective facts, which they simply aren't.

[MagnaofIllusion]

I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret this but let me try to get through to you one more time.

I've never thought or said S&M is 100% confirmed anything. Your stated possability is just that, a possability. Because of the miller claim that came prior to your cop investigation your investigation is completely meaningless unless you think amrun and ludi are scum together, and you don't seem to think this. Because your objective cop investigation is meaningless you instead have to use subjective means to determine S&M's alignment, which I admit you've done, but I respectfully disagree with your conclusions.

The issue is that you continue to frame your subjective reads as objective facts, which they simply aren't.

I'm sure you are going to regret it since it is you spewing the same crap over again.

1. My guilty is not meaningless based on Sun and Moon's claim to Magister. You keep repeating it as if his status is confirmed fact when it isn't. Even if they aren't partners Sun and Moon can just as easily be Scum 'lying' about becoming a Miller just as easily as he could actually becoming a Miller. Even more so given that both Seraphs have confirmed that they can grant Miller status. How many Miller mechanisms do you think exist in the game? At this stage of the game the only known Cop roles look to be Latent Abilities - Wraith's 1 Shot Cop / Doc and my Suicide Cop. Proliferating the game with 'Surprise Miller' abilities makes little sense in that regard.

In summary - your stance that my objective result is meaningless isn't valid as it works from the premise that Sun and Moon didn't lie to Magister. Which scum will do.

2. Actually the bolded line is your issue also. You are framing your stance as fact when it's only your opinion. I can't really blame you trying this repeatedly as you are very likely their scum partner and thus want to get them off any way you can. So you can't exactly decry what I am doing when you are using the exact same tactics.

MORE SUN AND MOON VOTES PLEASE!!!

[Empking]

I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret this but let me try to get through to you one more time.

I've never thought or said S&M is 100% confirmed anything. Your stated possability is just that, a possability. Because of the miller claim that came prior to your cop investigation your investigation is completely meaningless unless you think amrun and ludi are scum together, and you don't seem to think this. Because your objective cop investigation is meaningless you instead have to use subjective means to determine S&M's alignment, which I admit you've done, but I respectfully disagree with your conclusions.

The issue is that you continue to frame your subjective reads as objective facts, which they simply aren't.

I'm sure you are going to regret it since it is you spewing the same crap over again.

1. My guilty is not meaningless based on Sun and Moon's claim to Magister. You keep repeating it as if his status is confirmed fact when it isn't. Even if they aren't partners Sun and Moon can just as easily be Scum 'lying' about becoming a Miller just as easily as he could actually becoming a Miller. Even more so given that both Seraphs have confirmed that they can grant Miller status. How many Miller mechanisms do you think exist in the game? At this stage of the game the only known Cop roles look to be Latent Abilities - Wraith's 1 Shot Cop / Doc and my Suicide Cop. Proliferating the game with 'Surprise Miller' abilities makes little sense in that regard.

In summary - your stance that my objective result is meaningless isn't valid as it works from the premise that Sun and Moon didn't lie to Magister. Which scum will do.

2. Actually the bolded line is your issue also. You are framing your stance as fact when it's only your opinion. I can't really blame you trying this repeatedly as you are very likely their scum partner and thus want to get them off any way you can. So you can't exactly decry what I am doing when you are using the exact same tactics.

MORE SUN AND MOON VOTES PLEASE!!!

Not a quote from me if anyone is skimming.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Yeah, that should be from Gut ... not sure how that happened ...

[Gut]

I'm pretty sure I'm going to regret this but let me try to get through to you one more time.

I've never thought or said S&M is 100% confirmed anything. Your stated possability is just that, a possability. Because of the miller claim that came prior to your cop investigation your investigation is completely meaningless unless you think amrun and ludi are scum together, and you don't seem to think this. Because your objective cop investigation is meaningless you instead have to use subjective means to determine S&M's alignment, which I admit you've done, but I respectfully disagree with your conclusions.

The issue is that you continue to frame your subjective reads as objective facts, which they simply aren't.

I'm sure you are going to regret it since it is you spewing the same crap over again.

1. My guilty is not meaningless based on Sun and Moon's claim to Magister. You keep repeating it as if his status is confirmed fact when it isn't. Even if they aren't partners Sun and Moon can just as easily be Scum 'lying' about becoming a Miller just as easily as he could actually becoming a Miller. Even more so given that both Seraphs have confirmed that they can grant Miller status. How many Miller mechanisms do you think exist in the game? At this stage of the game the only known Cop roles look to be Latent Abilities - Wraith's 1 Shot Cop / Doc and my Suicide Cop. Proliferating the game with 'Surprise Miller' abilities makes little sense in that regard.

In summary - your stance that my objective result is meaningless isn't valid as it works from the premise that Sun and Moon didn't lie to Magister. Which scum will do.

2. Actually the bolded line is your issue also. You are framing your stance as fact when it's only your opinion. I can't really blame you trying this repeatedly as you are very likely their scum partner and thus want to get them off any way you can. So you can't exactly decry what I am doing when you are using the exact same tactics.

MORE SUN AND MOON VOTES PLEASE!!!

It doesn't require a presumption that Sun and Moon didn't lie. Based on the fact that they claimed miller, lying or not, its a given that they would return guilty to a cop, this means the fact that you got a guilty is entirely meaningless (with the exception being if S&M and ludi are scum together and are fabricating the preexisting miller claim). You instead have to weigh whether you think they lied or not. You think they lied, I don't think they lied, neither of us conclusively know and can only look at what's been said in thread as evidence, its all subjective.

On a not game related note, did you fuck up those quote tags or did it do that automatically?

[Furcolow]

im not liking a lot of the people who have hopped onto s&m, but i also dislike how the votes are all strewn about
this should be pretty much between moi and s&m, should it not?

[Magister Ludi]

No, not at all.

[Ellibereth]

My college apps are all due on Monday so if I still can't get into the game by Tuesday I'll be replacing out...Sorry, I suck once I fall behind.

[Herodotus]

From the votecount...
Furcolow desperately needs to be vigged, this time permanently. For the reason why I voted him.
Sunandmoon is more likely town than scum.
Either Empking is town, or he's a role that prevents Andrius from learning who he is, OR Andrius found out Night 2 that he's scum and has been faking the no-role thing since then. Most likely, town.
Espeonage/smargaret is the most likely scum of all viable wagons.

VOTE: smargaret

Re: the wagon, I've been unsure about Gut since VitaminR flipped town, and Feysal isn't town, so the wagon is - ... but there are other possible voters.

[Plum]

Now Beleg and Túrin turned to other matters, debating where they should dwell. 'Let us return to Dimbar, on the north-marches, where once we walked together!' said Beleg eagerly. 'We are needed there. For of late the Orcs have found a way down out of Taur-nu-Fuin, making a road through the pass of Anach.'

I do not remember it,' said Túrin.

'No, we never went so far from the borders,' said Beleg. 'But you have seen the peaks of the Crissaegrm far off, and to their east the dark walls of the Gorgoroth. Anach lies between them, above the high springs of Mindeb. A hard and dangerous way; and yet many come by it now, and Dimbar which used to lie in peace is now falling under the Dark Hand, and the Men of Brethil are troubled. To Dimbar I call you!'

'Nay, I will not walk backward in life,' said Túrin. 'Nor can I come easily to Dimbar now. Sirion lies between, unbridged and unforded below the Brithiach far northward; it is perilous to cross. Save in Doriath. But I will not pass into Doriath, and make use of Thingol's pardon.'

The Children of Húrin (118)

VOTE COUNT #3.7

Sun and Moon -

6

- Empking, MagnaofIllusion, Ellibereth, Andrius, SpyreX, kanyeknowsbest
Empking - 3 - Sun and Moon, Furcolow, Will-o-wisp
smargaret - 3 - Feysal, Gut, Herodotus
Ellibereth - 1 - Mastermind of Sin

Not Voting (4): Dekes, mockingjaye, smargaret, Magister Ludi

With 17 alive it will take 9 votes to lynch.

Please get the posting rate up. Thanks.

Deadline will be (expired on 2011-11-01 23:59:59)

No one needs prodding (!) . . . but we're still looking for a Dekes replacement. I'll consider Ellibereth V/LA.

[kanyeknowsbest]

It doesn't require a presumption that Sun and Moon didn't lie. Based on the fact that they claimed miller, lying or not, its a given that they would return guilty to a cop, this means the fact that you got a guilty is entirely meaningless (with the exception being if S&M and ludi are scum together and are fabricating the preexisting miller claim). You instead have to weigh whether you think they lied or not. You think they lied, I don't think they lied, neither of us conclusively know and can only look at what's been said in thread as evidence, its all subjective.

no this is wrong. whos to say that scum amrun couldnt claim to town ludi (her neighbor) that she was a miller. ludi has no way to act on this so there is no danger in amrun doing so. it has the benefit of her being able say "look, i claimed miller BEFORE the guilty" while not inviting any attention onto her or having to explain why she wasnt nked for it. imho the miller claim at this juncture is worthless. ludi does not have to be scum for the miller claim to be a lie.

this should be pretty much between moi and s&m, should it not?

no its between whether we want to lynch s&m or lynch someone else and let moi die.

[Herodotus]

I just thought of something, and I feel stupid for not considering it earlier.
How often does a mafia mason claim to their mason partner that they are also a vig?
I would guess that this has never happened in any previous game.
It would limit their options too much. A PR claims? Can't tell your partner that you're going to kill it; so your team will be forced to either not kill that PR (yet), or pretend you tried to kill the person you agreed on and it failed, which should damage your credibility enough to make the whole gambit backfire.
So I don't see Sunandmoon as a mafia member with Magister as a townie. That doesn't rule out other possibilities, but it was previously what I saw as the most likely Sun-scum scenario.

[Herodotus]

Willow, how are you feeling about Empking's claim?

@Gut: Is Ellibereth scum?

@Spyrex: Same question.

[Gut]

It doesn't require a presumption that Sun and Moon didn't lie. Based on the fact that they claimed miller, lying or not, its a given that they would return guilty to a cop, this means the fact that you got a guilty is entirely meaningless (with the exception being if S&M and ludi are scum together and are fabricating the preexisting miller claim). You instead have to weigh whether you think they lied or not. You think they lied, I don't think they lied, neither of us conclusively know and can only look at what's been said in thread as evidence, its all subjective.

no this is wrong. whos to say that scum amrun couldnt claim to town ludi (her neighbor) that she was a miller. ludi has no way to act on this so there is no danger in amrun doing so. it has the benefit of her being able say "look, i claimed miller BEFORE the guilty" while not inviting any attention onto her or having to explain why she wasnt nked for it. imho the miller claim at this juncture is worthless. ludi does not have to be scum for the miller claim to be a lie.

sigh. I didn't say ludi needed to be scum for the miller claim to be a lie. She claims to have claimed miller to ludi a day before the cop investigation. This is true unless they are scum together. If this is true she would show guilty to a cop investigation regardless of whether she was scum that lied to ludi or town that was telling the truth. Therefore the only scenario in which the cop investigation means anything is the one where ludi and S&M are scum together. QED.

Yes she could still be scum, but there is no hard evidence towards that fact, if anything the only hard evidence is that shes a killing role, and thats highly suggestive of her not being mafia.

To put it another way; If MoI hadn't claimed a guilty on S&M today would you still be voting for them? If the answer is yes I have no issue with you still voting them, if the answer is no, then you should really be voting for that other person instead.

[Gut]

@Gut: Is Ellibereth scum?

Maybe? I don't really like him much but I also haven't talked to the other head about his slot in quite some time.

[smargaret]

I'm here and catching up, albeit slowly. I've read all of day 3 and most of day 1. Barring power outage due to

snow

in

October

, I'll be caught up tomorrow.

I don't see any way we can justify lynching anyone other than S&M or MoI - regardless of whether you believe the mason/miller/vig claim or not, we have two Turins. I don't see that being possible barring one of them being scum.

MoS, why the Elli vote? Why are you placing a lurkervote when we have a 1-1? The same goes for people voting me and Empking, but those are at least *wagons*. One vote doesn't get to call itself a pressure vote.

I'm inclined to believe MoI over S&M, just because the millermasonvig claim is just so over the top. Also, it seems like we'd be better off being wrong and killing S&M than being wrong and killing MoI.

S&M, did the millerization happen at the same time as the vig shot or because of the vig shot? Please clarify with the mod if you don't know this.

VOTE: S&M

[Gut]

I'm here and catching up, albeit slowly. I've read all of day 3 and most of day 1. Barring power outage due to

snow

in

October

, I'll be caught up tomorrow.

I don't see any way we can justify lynching anyone other than S&M or MoI - regardless of whether you believe the mason/miller/vig claim or not, we have two Turins. I don't see that being possible barring one of them being scum.

MoS, why the Elli vote? Why are you placing a lurkervote when we have a 1-1? The same goes for people voting me and Empking, but those are at least *wagons*. One vote doesn't get to call itself a pressure vote.

I'm inclined to believe MoI over S&M, just because the millermasonvig claim is just so over the top. Also, it seems like we'd be better off being wrong and killing S&M than being wrong and killing MoI.

S&M, did the millerization happen at the same time as the vig shot or because of the vig shot? Please clarify with the mod if you don't know this.

VOTE: S&M

So your reason for very wrongly narrowing the lynch to between S&M and MoI is because they both claimed turin, but then you vote the one whos name is confirmed to be turin?

Pretty happy with my vote.

[Magister Ludi]

Changed my mind regarding the four people I outlined earlier. For various reasons lynching any off them makes little sense now. empkings claim seems town, for now. Herod is acting town, and I want dekes replacement before speedlynching him. Kanye is for the vig.

I want to lynch smargaret. As Gut pointed out, that post was simply terrible

Vote: smargaret