This suggests he's avoiding a real lurker. I know I've coasted for a bit due to exams and replacing into a large-paged game, but I was far from lurking; if Nobody Special thought I was lurking at my activity level, then the absence of Cross_Pollination or DonJosh should have been that much more striking. In fact, it probably was, which may be why he ignored Quilford shouting for a DonJosh counterwagon and Amrun shouting for a Cross_Pollination counterwagon. I'm more inclined toward it being DonJosh because DonJosh's voting behavior was outright odd, and I had no idea what was going through his mind for each of them.
In post 601, bvoigt wrote:I feel like this day is dragging. NS is clearly the day's lynch.
it is, we're just spinning wheels. NS isn't even doing anything and is clearly resigned to his faith, so it's not like we're gonna catch his buddies from his content.
In post 596, Twistedspoon wrote:if you want a quick answer as to why I demanded that slot, it's because
1) after a brief skim of the first 7 or so pages I felt he was difficult to read and would like to know his alignment myself so that I wouldn't need to work it out
Did you like the answer?
It was a brief moment of relief at the role before realising That I'd have to bouckle down and crack on with my work.
It's comaprable to say, receiving a free pair of tickets to see Phil collins. It's a pleasant surprise at first but then you realise there's going to be a lot of strain to endure before you can relax
now I must crack on with my ananlysis. If you wouldn't mind being patient. Only waiting moves can really be played whilst I finalise it and replacements are sought.
1 Thessalonians 5:21: Test everything, but hold fast onto what is good
"Murder is no better than cards if cards can do the trick"
~Screwtape
Been fast reading the thread for the past hour, first thing I noticed is that wow this is very different from the kind of mafia im used to. A lot more walls of texts and shit, also much more joking/joke phase from where i come from. People are being (semi?) seriousnsince page 1. Hopefully i will adapt well.
I chose to replace kondi because trekker does loos scummy from what i read. He was posting lots of unfounded suspicions and was generally being a little awkward. He is being replaced now though.
I will reread the thread and finish the parts i havent read, then i guess i can do a semi big post of what i feel about each player. This will have to wait a bit since i have a class in 15 mins though.
trekker is probably a crypto alt, he flaked around the same time as crypto replaced out of games. i thought they were in a game together earlier but can't seem to find it now
My apparent 'ignoring' of c_p and DJ for lurking over Equi is quite simple. I know her; I don't know them as well. They ping my radar less than she does. It's like confirmation bias, only not quite.
(When I say I "know her" I simply mean mafia-wise. In case that wasn't clear.)
Fruit Basket wrote:and mods shouldn't give replacements a choice as to who they replace but that's for MD.
And this is my grand return to mafia after a long long time. And what a fine playerlist it is
Let's Roll on then shall we?
Introductions
So, you guys are going to need my help as much as I'm going to need yours. I've never won a agame without co-operation and I doubt any town has, so even though we can't all trust each other, we've got to listen to each other here. I'll play to my strengths and I'll have you play to yours if you want to stay in my good books. This game is getting 110% of my effort now, so I expect to get 110% out of it, and if any players let the side down in contributions (such as the person who I demanded to replace after seeing his woeful contributions) then I know where I'll be cementing my vote.
so first things first. Let's have some analysis shall we?
before I get to character analysis I want to give my
first impressions of the setup
, a fundamental discussion for town in games with a different wincon for town. This was never discussed by you at the start of the game, instead you just dived in to one of the most questionable RVSs I've seen in a along time (I'll get to that later).
White Flag. Usually I refrain from this setup (along with most open setups. I dislike not having the pleasure of discovering the setup as I play. I frown upon the open queue usually, but playing again with some of my old friends and a personal request from the mod made me make this one exception) for a variety of reasons, but one of the most obvious is that it requires different playstyles for both town and scum. As scum you're the mouse rather than the cat for once. Two strikes and you're out.
Only one chance to slip up.
The constant pressure of letting the site down is much more prevalent in white flag. Bussing is driven to the very extremes of bussing. It's very high risk, very high reward. Bus and risk losing your only strike if not the game, for volatile town cred, or play safe and protect your buddies putting all your eggs in one basket. Neither option is safe for scum at all so it's only natural for scum to be ever more distant from each other than before in white flag. In this trilemma it's the easiest and safest option. Both bussing and white-knighting are extrememly risky in this game so scum have to be distant to the extremes.
Thus the change in the scum playstyle overspills into the town playstyle. A new scum metagame means new scumhunting must be employed. Once one mafioso is caught only the bravest scum will be able to resist protecting their buddy and their only hope of remaining in the game.
All the eggs in one basket. Alas we are not at this stage yet, and I look forwards to the cat and mouse game when we reach it should I be alive. Yes. There's nothing I find more thrilling than cornering a squealing mafioso. The feeling when the rabbit is caught in the headlights. When the owl finally swoops for the prey. There is little more savoury.
But I digress
What scum behaviour (and thus town tactics) can we expect now; in day 1?
Defensive or offensive? Bussing or distant?
This should have been discussed at the start of the game, the results and sharing of knowledge being both another weapon avaliable for every townie to use when judging players, and the discussion also has the beautiful effect of unnerving the huddling mafiosi cauding a fine compress of pressure, which when executed correctly, has the tantalising effect of causing all sorts of irrational play from the mafia as they try to dodge the mould they believe the town is hunting for. Once you crack how the mafia play or (force them to avert from the rational and make mistakes) it's only the simplest jigsaw in unmasking them.
So perhaps white flag does have a subtle beauty to it. At least to the town anyways, and that's all that matters now.
Now that the formalities are out of the way all that needs to be done is evaluate the candidates, and deduce the likelihood of the characters among us being mafiosi.
Occasionally it is is easier to identify towntells and dub people as town leaving the scum to be corned without any way out from the binding coil of process of elimination without attacking the town reads themselves and creating even more enemies themselves. This spiral is one of the most fascinating... and succulent aspects of process of elimination. If the correct methods are applied when deducing the townies it's both effective and delightful in watching the scum squirm and flail as you slowly close in...
For When you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains must be the truth.
in order of the playerlist
Spoiler: Equinox
Ah, A fine place to start. When I first read the playerlist your name stuck out. I felt that you would be the mafia guru here; the one to rally the troops if you will. What I have seen so far has been quite a tangent to this preconception though
within the first 50 posts you have changed your vote on 5 occasions.
This flip-flopping displeases me I must admit. How can pressure be applied in the RBS if you constantly fling votes around as if they're bread for the birds. If you're hoping for your vote to have any value at all and thus be an excellent tool for applying pressure to the mafioso then I don't see how your indecisiveness in the
Random
voting stage helps at all. It is a weak tell perhaps, but one that I personally find irritating and must get off of my chest.
You keep several things to yourself which is a reasonable thing to do in a game of mafia. Juts beware that it doesn't stop you limiting the town's great weapons of discussion and co-operation, both of which are needed to catch the mafiosi
#241 is sound enough with good (certainly compared to other posters) questioning and it is more than most of the other players had even posted up to that point. Perhaps my town leader misconception wasn't wrong.
Anyways there isn't much more to add. You're probtown and there is little to criticise. No need to analyse you any more; at the very least for now. I don't doubt you're a good player though and could pull off town, but there is no reason to assume this D1
Spoiler: Anyún
Your RVS vote still on me from the start looks bad. I dislike sticky votes remaining from RVS. Out of the plethora of other players posts you stick to the one with less than 10 whilst there are a myriad of those of other (active) players to criticise. Not very impressive. You do seem rather independent though and have very original thought and do go against the tide (when it would be easier to sheep as scum) such as in posts 74, 148 and 154.
Interestingly I also read you as quite aggressive this game such as 158 which I don't see as inherently scummy for you. You do protect NS quite a bit which might fall under my analysis of the set up were NS to flip scum. As a result I'm quite interested in NS's flip to see what this indicates about you.
You don't actually say why you find CP more newb-scum than newb-town but I guess it's unanimous his play was poor. How this is interepreted can be unreliable from 10 brief posts and I'm surprised you're not voting a more suitable target
the ratio of your pushes on CP to your explanations of why he is scummy are far unbalanced. I think you're worth keeping an eye on. probably not the lynch of today, and when you provide better explanations and consider targets other than myself (the nerve!) then your pressure may be an asset to the town
Spoiler: Quilford
Hey Quilford. You should've told me you needed a hydra buddy I could have paired up than replaced in
anyways, being the first player to produce a reads list always goes down well in my book. It's a townie thought usually to be the first.
I'm interested in how you arrived at your premise in #366 (as well as the continuations of your unexplained donjohn pushes in #400 and #411
If you're attributing it to fluff or little contribution then perhaps NS trekker, CP and kondi were also guilty of the same crime
a lot of your posts are brief and a big dissapointment from the razor sharp quilford I thought I'd be playing with when I replaced in.
I'd like the old quilford back please so that he can help me catch some scum rather than leaving it to the others. I have yet to see real analysis from you
Spoiler: SleepyKrew
SK, if you're town in this game you're going to have to give me some divine signal as I always have trouble reading you. You are consisitent as both alignments and bold as both town and scum. My read on you may be shaky at best but I'll try
the main Irk I have is that you sometimes don't explain yourself when you make assertions. let's hope I can overlook this. (for example why in post 19 do you say I am town sans explanation, and how do you reach your conclusions in the following post. However i think this may just be your style.
the immediately obvious is that you have the most posts this game which is fine and certainly better than others. I also find you thining along my wavelength in some posts such as 180 which gives me a good feel about you. I think this may be your time to shine and catch the scum.
Spoiler: Nobody Special
NS, man, why are you playing like this?
what contribution have you possible made to catch the scum. Imho you aren't really a D1 player at all but to provide so little is quite irksome to say the least. Having seen you play with an uncaring playstyle as both alignments in open games (double day as scum with myself and by nomination only as an uncaring townie) I don't find your playstyle conclusive, but I certainly wouldn't object to your lynch atm.
In your iso there isn't much to analyse. You do make some brave and bold assertions such as in #403 where you dub two influential players as "obvscum" in a move which I don't see many scum taking as they certainly wouldn't want 2 extra enemies in a setup like this. That does give me a good feel about you I must admit, and perhaps I can see where amrun is coming from.
You certainly haven't made it easy for you to be analysed have you here?
Spoiler: bvoigt
1) why did you self-vote in post 30? what town motivation did you
The rest of your play is very consistent and fine I must admit. You reinforce your assertions where necessary (such as when you requested fruit revealed his heads) and #295 shows good townie thought volatility and rationality for that stage of the game.
There isn't much more to add and you follow the logical path through your posts which is good to see. I find you difficult to pair up with other players too which reduced the likelihood of being mafiosi
Spoiler: DonJosh
not much to say here from his Iso. He needs replacing.
The only judgement I could make here would be through occam's razor and that can be questionable
Spoiler: Fruit Basket
Ah, the magician among us. I am always intrigued by mysteries and your identity is one. Let's hope you at least reveal the scum to us if you wont do so with your heads
~~~~~
anyways, you're a very strong townread of mine. I could make points and written analysis but for the sake of time and the fact that you're hardly in danger of a lynch I don't want to when there are more suspicious players to grill (at least right now)
I hope we can co-operate to catch the mafiosi this game
Spoiler: trekker
I've played with this maverick before. I genuinely feel sorry for the scum if they landed him on their team. He has no benefit to the town. 99% of his posts are baseless assertions and no analysis. This player will be forever a liability and potential mafiosi until he flips and the scum won't do this for us. Unless he replaces out soon he needs to go.
oh, and after reading one particular part of your iso again I think I've deduced the identity of one of your heads, but I don't think I need to reveal this now aty the very least. It certainly doesn't change my opinion
Spoiler: fatlikepig
At the start you are incredibly volatile. Perhaps I should be blaming you for the lack of direction and objectives in the RVS. Perhaps not. You pushed the player I replaced quite often which does make me slightly prejudiced but I must admit his play was sub-optimal. Your conclusion of C_P in #194 (and #326) is the one I came up with though before i replaced him and that does give me a good feel about your stance on him.
There was another post of yours that I liked in your iso that gave me a good gut feel. I can't seem to find it now...
hmm
What would you say your area of expertise is in mafia pig? VCA? NK analysis?
overall I do see some good questions from you which looks promising but I think i may have to review you againlater as I have left your Iso to last and the motivation to finish might have skewed my read slightly.
Spoiler: ScreamingHawk
Why did you say this? It was clear this setup was mountainous and if not then it only reinforces my argument as to why setup discussion is beneficial in RVS.
Explain what you mean here when you say nothing bad could arise
The most bothersome thing for me about your Iso is that you constantly push NS but you never say why NS is actually suspcious or lynchworthy to you. The only reason you give for your vote on him is
and this lack of reasoning doesn't justify the constant pushing you have for NS's lynch
If you could explain this that'd be nice
also
In post 327, ScreamingHawk wrote:Initially thought I had. Sorry. Should start writing all my thoughts for this game down.
Going to have a read through NS past games. Good to join DJ wagon in sec.
why did you never present your findings from this research?
Surely if you had read his past games you'd see that even as town NS hardly ever provides real content.
anyways, I'm unsure about you. You do read as a very genuine player which does make me thing you're town, but a few of your thoughts don't seem rational enough to me. I'd guess you were town because your overall iso and style does seem like very genuine town. If you could link me to a past scum game of yours on this site if possible that would be useful.
Spoiler: Cross_Pollination
This is the mortal I replaced
His >10 posts left much to be desired...
As a result I requested to replace this character as I felt he would be hardest to get a read on so I had to find out his alignment by making it my own.
SI hope to improve this playerslot. It needed it to say the least. If I am made to vouch for this players actions then I won't be a happy camper at all. But seriously, if there is any compelling evidence for this player's d1 lynch from <10 posts then...
The point being that this player smells freshly of myslynch fodder in a game when scum need myslynch fodder the most to compensate for their "white flag" frailties as mentioned in my setup analysis above.
I don't want to discuss this player any further. The overall impact of his 10 posts is beyond negligible.
Spoiler: kondi2424
little to say here. Slight town read for a few small reasons but I think gut is the best way of expressing this one.
so those are my reads They're qualitative, not quantative so i won't be putting them in a list for you. All you need to know is who I'm voting and that will be. I hope trekker is replaced soon. Until then VOTE: Trekker
ninja: I'm not sure what you're saying in #608 Anyún
ninja #2: I think it's actually the smart move to let the replacements choose who they replace as the mod may be more biased to having a scum or town slot replaced first if one side is being let down badly whereas the player who is replacing in is ignorant of alignment..
1 Thessalonians 5:21: Test everything, but hold fast onto what is good
"Murder is no better than cards if cards can do the trick"
~Screwtape
I've played with this maverick before. I genuinely feel sorry for the scum if they landed him on their team. He has no benefit to the town. 99% of his posts are baseless assertions and no analysis. This player will be forever a liability and potential mafiosi until he flips and the scum won't do this for us. Unless he replaces out soon he needs to go.
oh, and after reading one particular part of your iso again I think I've deduced the identity of one of your heads, but I don't think I need to reveal this now aty the very least. It certainly doesn't change my opinion
Can you comment on the bolded part, then?
Unrelated, but if you EVER post that huge of a wall again, I will personally travel to your house and defile you. Publicly. Break it up next time. [/cranky]
sorry, that bolded part was meant to be for fruit basket
and thankyou very much, but that wall could have been even larger had I not taken the liberty of using spoiler tags. would you rather I didn't?
Or would you rather C_P was here?
After the time i put into that catchup posts (and you can only expect catchup posts to be that size for a 25 page recap) methinks you could've shown a bit more respect to my wall. It's more than some have contributed thus far.
1 Thessalonians 5:21: Test everything, but hold fast onto what is good
"Murder is no better than cards if cards can do the trick"
~Screwtape
Having internet issues so not looking back to past quotes. Will answer those later.
I haven't any completed games on forum before. So no sorry I can't point you to a previous game of mine.
A note. Why not voting NS? No call for him to claim? Why not even putting some pressure on NS? Especially after your entire intro on the game and how scum cannot afford any slips or lost players. Makes your lack of pressure on NS suspicious as a scum buddy.
Also Trekker has just been/requested replacement. Your vote on him here seems like a cop out. And so enforces my feelings on above.
Other then that I'm incredibly impressed with your reads. Here's hoping the other replacements do as good a job.
I'm not voting NS for the reason i covered in the reads list of mine.
As scum you must accept that NS was incredibly bold to call 2 players obvscum (here specifically but also here) and therefore get 2 enemies which scum would certainly not want in this setup. Surely you can see that. It's not a great scum tactic to make enemies and if you have to you should at least provide a reason or two as to why a person is scummy or not a scum.
If you can show my why a scum NS would needlessly give himself 2 or 3 players who want his blood and his lynch then I'd happily vote him as he has done precious little else to convince me that he's town
In post 622, ScreamingHawk wrote:
Also Trekker has just been/requested replacement. Your vote on him here seems like a cop out. And so enforces my feelings on above.
trekker has indeed requested replacement. The day won't end until he returns anyways and I certainly see him more suspect than NS so my vote will be pressure on whoever replaces him to get his act together lest i call for his lynch.
Other than Trekker I sadly find no compelling lynch for today
![:]](./images/smilies/icon_smiling.png "Cheerful Smile"){kind=icon}
