Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[4nxi3ty]

Anxiety, Luxury isn't getting lynched today.
What are your feelings on Amrun?

i have a town read on amrun so i would prefer a no-lynch over a mislynch, especially when considering that we could be in mylo.

[Crab Canon]

Look, bellyaching about Snake isn't going to make a lynch happen at this point. Amrun has connections to GNR, wasn't completely forthcoming about her role PM and at this point looks like the only viable lynch. All this hemming and hawing that is stalling this game down to deadline and possibly going to lose the game with a no lynch is pissing me off.

Everyone needs to be voting someone they think is lynchable and they need to do it now. If your vote is just hanging on a wagon that's not going to happen, then move it and make something happen. Anyone dawdling is much more likely to be scum.

Why is luxury so much in the background when they have two heads to post with?

Junpei, this sums up our suspicions of Amrun.

[Junpei]

Well I get the role PM aspect, and Amrun is not the only viable lynch, so why don't you elaborate on "connections to GNR"?

[Crab Canon]

From our hydra QT (it's probably in our iso too somewhere but I found it faster in the QT):

Wasn't Amrun actively defending him

[GNR]

earlier though? Saying we weren't going to lynch GNR today and stuff? I don't like the way she came in to hop on the yay-scumhanging wagon, but who knows.

[saulres]

wasn't completely forthcoming about her role PM

What, that she said "I'm a VT" but didn't say "and I'm Amazing"? That's such a null tell it's not even funny.

I played in another game where Whiskers thought she was a VT until she double-checked her role PM. She then said she was a bodyguard. She didn't say it the first time because it wasn't a role she'd use. I see Amrun's "Amazing" here exactly the same. Only less useful.

And Whiskers was the town bodyguard that game.

In this game, Snake didn't realize he had day-cop abilities after replacing in, and he could be town but is likely scum.

So, null-tell.

pedit: Gah. Seriously? Amrun's defense of the whole GNR connection, which is backed by actually reading what she posted during that time, is that she was arguing against Vi's theory that GNR had to be scum because he claimed bulletproof. That wasn't the convincing factor for my vote on GNR (well, what would have been my vote if he didn't take it away from me) and, I believe, for other people's as well. I said as much here.

[4nxi3ty]

saying amrun is scum for defending riggs is the same line of logic that got fishy lynched, the only applicable reason to lynch her is the vt claim miscommunication.

[Luxury]

Apologies for my absence, I'm very very busy during the week and I've gotten pretty bored with the game since my reads haven't been changing at all recently. Plus, every time I was about to post I scrolled down to see Regfan had beat me to it. Time zones don't help anything either.

Regfan and I are both pretty set on Amrun+Anxiety and as such I'll be hammering. Crab/Saul are 100% town, me and Regfan agree on every read so far. We briefly discussed a chance of a third party but it's not important, right now we're focusing on lynching a scumread.

VOTE: Anxiety

If that ends the game, I won't feel bad. Scum have had so many chances to hammer one of Amrun/Anxiety if they're town it's ridiculous, and this strengthens our read.

Should go without saying that in our opinion Amrun needs to die tonight if Anxiety flips scum.

-Shift

[saulres]

Having said that, Amrun may be scum. But I don't think it's as likely as 4nxi3ty, who still was blocked on a night with no gun-kill, and who's had strange statements like this one about SL which was never explained.

pedit: Well that's that. Let's see what the flip brings and what the night holds.

[4nxi3ty]

there better be scum in the dead qt when daybreaks.

[saulres]

Well Riggs is in it

And hopefully you'll be another one, just waiting on the flip.

And then -- well, I can only hope to put more in tonight. Because really, if we don't, then I think game's over

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 4.12

4nxi3ty (Lynched) - Junpei, saulres, Amrun, Luxury
Amrun (L-2) - SnakePlissken, Crab Canon
Luxury (L-3) - 4nxi3ty

Not Voting (0)

Deadline: Wednesday November 2 @ 11:00 AM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-02 11:00:00)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

A majority of you decide that 4nxi3ty must be one of the people responsible for this attack on the principles of magic. You decide to freeze him in a block of ice and… GODDAMMIT Blaine, that’s not a magic trick, that’s just a stupid stunt you pulled once. But it doesn’t matter as 4nxi3ty is no David Blaine and he can’t survive the harsh conditions, eventually you crack open the ice to reveal…

4nxi3ty –

Cyril Takayama froze D4

It is now Night 4. Any and all night actions are due 48 hours (Thursday November 3rd @ 10:00 pm Eastern) from now.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Holy shit, you wake up and check outside and there appear to be three dead bodies on the ground. Three! How could this happen? And when will it end. You turn over the first body and it's that of Crab Canon and they've got a bullet wound right in the middle of their forehead. The three of you left then move over to the next body and find that Junpei has had his chest scooped into and his heart missing. And then you find the body of Luxury who appears to be covered in a set of large claw and bite marks. Good Lord! In the end you conclude...

Crab Canon –

Uri Gellar shot N4

and

Junpei –

John Edward had his heart removed N4

and

Luxury –

Val Valentino mauled by a big cat N4

This ends today, one way or another.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Not Voting (3) - SnakePlissken, saulres, Amrun

Deadline: Thursday November 17 @ 11:00 PM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-17 23:00:00)

[Amrun]

I fucking knew Junpei was scum since day 1.

CC was trickier, but def gave me weirdvibes as noted.

Confised by the fact the game is still on....

My bet for last scum is snake.

Claim action, saulres?

[Amrun]

Wait, I'm not actually confused the game is still on, nvm.

Last night was awesome, though.

[Amrun]

Wait, saulres, did you really go after luxury? :/

[saulres]

Great, LyLo. I've been in that situation twice. Once I won, once I lost. Let's see which it is this time.

Last night I was using my logic to send Montecore after Junpei, but then I changed my mind to go with my gut and sent him after Luxury. Clearly that was a bad call. There's mojo going on here which I don't understand. Maybe the N2 kill was delayed? No, I still don't understand, Junpei certainly didn't self-target. Whatever, it doesn't matter any more.

I did call CC as the SB (DDD can confirm after game end) so I have that going for me I guess (depending on what yellow means). And boy, if Amrun's the last scum she certainly chose the right person to bring along to put me in a horrible position.

Snake better friggin' post this day.

pedit: Let me finish my writing

Yes, I really did. I'll quote my final PM to DDD in just a sec.

[saulres]

your logic is getting in the way of your instincts. both logic and instinct needs to be used in tandem with one another. follow both of them and if they conflict you may need to adapt a new perspective.

For all his faults, I think this makes a lot of sense. My logic keeps failing me this game. So instead of doing anything based on setup speculation, I'm going back to my notes from my full reread-through, which is basically a PBPA with my summary thoughts, including only those posts I thought relevant. In those notes I have 4nxi3ty as town, and since my logic told me otherwise and failed, I'm looking at my scum reads. There were two: Snake and Luxury/Shift.

I've made a lot of noise about Snake, so I do want to stay away in case there's a redirect based on the target. But I don't think I've said anything about Luxury. So...

Send the tiger after Luxury

.

I do still think that I have even nights and Junpei has odds, so I expect this to go through. That will leave open for tomorrow (if I'm still alive) if there was a redirect or if Junpei targeted Vi.

[saulres]

Amrun, what it is you saw about Luxury's posts that you couldn't reveal because it wasn't pro-town?

[Amrun]

I thought Luxury might be a doctor. When discussing what might have stopped shots, they totally missed that possibility. I thought it might have been a docslip.

[saulres]

I thought about that possibility after you posted that you saw something, but obviously didn't say anything for the same reasons. I scoured his posts for breadcrumbs indicating that. Didn't find any.

Things that are going to keep me up at night

Everyone who flipped green, as well as my role PM, has an actual magician as their name.

Everyone who flipped red or yellow had a psychic as their real name.

Snake's claimed name is a magician. Amrun's claimed name is a psychic.

Intentional screwing-around with us by DDD? Or poor choice of "Amazing" name claim after Snake said Amrun was "Amazing"?

This is going to bother me until the game is over.

[Amrun]

This game was never breakable by flavor. Ever. If it was, I'd have a magician fakeclaim as scum. Instead I have only my actual role. Idk if he is a psychic or not but I guess he is if you say so.

Don't let that bother you; DDD would never do that. He's an experienced layer and mod and that's a really dumb mistake it would be hard to make.

Base your decision off of play.

[Amrun]

Wait, if you thought Lux was doctor, why did you shoot them?

[saulres]

Heh. That's why I said it's going to keep me up at nights. There's no way to figure that out, but my mind's going to try.

Other things like that include "How did 3 kills happen last night, 2 seemingly by tiger?" There's flavor in there (Siegfried and Roy's show ended after Roy was attacked by Montecore) which I'm thrilled to see DDD incorporated, somehow. Can't wait to find out how.

And that's my biggest frustration -- waiting. I really hope Snake posts more frequently, so this game can end sooner rather than later. I shudder to think we'll still be doing this 2 weeks from tonight.

pedit: I didn't think Luxury was a doc, I thought that

might

have been what you saw and were hinting at, so I looked for signs of it. I didn't find any, so I dismissed the idea, and then went back to my notes from my re-read-through.

And I didn't shoot him, I sent the tiger after him. I don't have a gun.