Double Vote Mafia -Mini 1239- Over

[Whiskers]

Or, we could lynch scum. One? Two?

Friend, I push for it today because today is

THE LAST POSSIBLE DAY

to use it. If we don't use it today, we don't use it at all.

You're okay with that? Even if you are a townie, you'd rather we lynch a townie and go, tomorrow, into Mylo, than maybe lynch one townie and one scum today and Not go into Mylo?
Worst case scenario, we hit two townies and are in Lylo.

Friend Maresil, you're against using a Double-Lynch

at all?

[killerjester]

Whiskers, 898 was directed at you.

[Christine]

Oh Lord. This is becoming a mess.


Let's run this down a little bit. Enough people have said they don't see an FM NS Mafia team... What about an FM Voided Mafia team?

[bvoigt]

Soon.

[Whiskers]

You literally just said lynching one scum today would make finding the partner easier tomorrow. How can you have no idea?

I haven't yet gone a-caroling.

[Friend Mairsil]

early in the game i was for a double lynch cuz we had the numbers to stand a two town mislynch, but this late in the game its more of a risk than is necessary. you all think im scum so off'ing a single scum should be good enough without having to drop your numbers by possibly two more, right? but seeing as im town you risk losing three townies total.

@christine - you cant put me with anyone else because of my lack of posts, and cuz im not scum. its kinda a catch 22 kinda thing going on right now. seriously your trying to chump me with VM? i pushed for his lynch early in day 2 along with whiskers...or was it dash...it was one of the two. why would i do that if i was scum? bussing a team mate after one of our own just went down would be stupid. and while i am a noob here even i know that would be a beyond stupid play. come on give me more credit than that.

screw it i havent placed a vote today cuz i really thought it was gonna end quickly, but seeing as this is still breathing (i really dont know how it is, but it is)

VOTE : WHISKERS & CHRISTINE

[Whiskers]

(from the bottom)
Nice of you to fos. Now we just have to analyze if it's an fs of your teammate. (Why bus your last teammate if the day is going to end quickly?)

Then you say, "wifom, wifom, wifom."

And firstly, Early in the game we are more

likely

to double lynch town. Now that there is a more even ratio of town to scum, it is more likely, using MATH, to lynch scum.

That said, using probability is usually a scumtell. Is it okay to use probability in this way?
Here's the math, jsyk:
9 players (3 mafia). Lynch two:
3 out of 9 times, you will lynch at least one scum (right? I'm not using real math.)

8 players (2 mafia). Lynch two:
Nevermind. Probability using random lynches says that double lynching is a bad Idea.


However, I still wish to do it.

[killerjester]

Christine and FM are both L-2

And if you're using math, you have a 52.4% chance to hit at least one scum using a random double-lynch. Take it how you will, but I know at the very least my votes are not random in the slightest.

[Whiskers]

Christine and FM are both L-2

And if you're using math, you have a 52.4% chance to hit at least one scum using a random double-lynch. Take it how you will, but I know at the very least my votes are not random in the slightest.

When? I mean, at what point is there a 52.4% to hit one scum? At Game Start, or now?

Either way, Yeah, votes aren't random. I guess that's why using MATH is scummy.

[killerjester]

Right now.

I'm not going to lynch myself, so the odds of lynch town with BOTH votes is (5/7)*(4/6). That comes out to 47.6%, which means the opposite (not lynching town with both votes) is 100.0 - 47.6.

52.4% to hit

at least

one scum. The odds of lynching either one scum or two scum are all included in that number.

[Whiskers]

So, who are you picking for scum?

[killerjester]

Christine and VM.

[Whiskers]

Okay. Mine are christine and FM, but I"m also wary of our lurkers.

Do Christine and VM make a scumteam? I mean-- wasn't it you saying that we should only lynch viable scumteams?

[Christine]

How exactly do I look scum again? As far as I know, the only reason there was any reason to lynch me was because I screwed up yesterday...

[killerjester]

Yeah I can see them as a scumteam.

[Whiskers]

Whiskers, mind evening it up?

I want to vote for FM, but I don't want him so close to a lynch if we are doing a double lynch today...

Gah. This is just becoming annoying. Are we going to double lynch or no?!

In the rules it says that he will set a deadline if it takes too long, but right now, there is no deadline.

Look, I will shift my vote to FM gladly if we are going to not use our Double Lynch, but no one has really decided one way or the other.

Sounds good to me. Obviously FM is one of them. Who will the other be? You seem to have your heart set on KJ, but my suspicions are still on NS. If you really wanna push for KJ lynch then I am fine with it.

To be honest, I don't really. I think NS is scummier, but that opinion really has happened in the past day. However you seem to be dead set on KJ. You called it on FM being scum so I am willing to trust your judgement. My problem is, I can't decide on who would be his scum buddy.

Do you see buddying between FM and KJ?


This post brought to you from the commisarry line!

Oh Lord. This is becoming a mess.


Let's run this down a little bit. Enough people have said they don't see an FM NS Mafia team... What about an FM Voided Mafia team?

Well, for one thing, you're being

suuuper-cautious

not to turn any of us off or give yourself away. Your posts have become super short, and are all about, "Oh, well, gee, I don't know, but, maybe,

maybe

do you think that this might possibly be something that you are considering?" You're buddying me, practically beggin for towncred.

Idk why you decided that I was "dead set" on a kj lynch. I made a poor case against him, that's all. The only motivation I can see is that you slipped it in there on purpose-- which would be a scum motivation, strengthening my read against kj, or, more importantly, taking yours off the table entirely.

So, Christine, how

about

a FM / VM scumteam? Also, do

you

see buddying between FM and KJ?

Maybe you should make a

case,

and

convince me

that there is another, better candidate for scum.

[Whiskers]

Hey, bro, go ahead and base your reads on her previous play. Then, Tell me why you have a town read on her. Like I asked you several times before. If you don't answer this with something more substantial or at the very least more wordy than, "gut,"

Later. I just think that pony is town for some of her early play. It makes more sense.

FFFFFFFFFFFFFFFFUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK YOOOOOOOUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUU!!!

[Voidedmafia]

Christine and FM are both L-2

Yeah, but the votes on them aren't square--that is, it's set up so that someone off of BOTH wagons has to be the double-hammer, and likewise for L-1, most likely, because one vote on each wagon (yours for Christine and mine for FM) are not matched on the opposite wagon. Bv may or may not put them up to L-1 (at which point I might suggest that I unvote FM and request KJ to unvote Christine just to be safe), and then someone completely off the wagon will have to do the rest (might be myself, if I'm convinced to get back on the Christine wagon). Even if bv doesn't doublevote them, I still think it'd be prudent for KJ and I to unvote Christine and FM, respectively, to keep the votes "even". Thoughts?

Also, KJ, why Christine/me? Christine, why FM/me? Am I (using myself since I'm the common denominator for both teams) scummy independent of who I'm paired with, or is there some sort of interaction that's pegged us?

[bvoigt]

I think the best way to do this is to read through the game (right now, I'm through page 12), and then formulate my reads mainly on interactions with nintendo.

VOTE: Whiskers for the way nintendo voted NS after he insisted that Whiskers answer the question about English being her first language.

VOTE: Christine for this:

I don't like the so called case that hiphop supposedly has. His logic in his back and forth with Christine on the last page was weaksauce.

NS is town because of this opportunistic accusation:

Vote: nintendoaddict[/b]

OMGUSOMGUSOMGUS

[bvoigt]

VOTE: Christine is at L-1. Don't hammer her, though...I would be in favor of double lynching today.

[Whiskers]

Then unvote her, dumbass. We've been through this once already. Instead of fucking us all an you and your scumpartner passing it off as, "Oh man, I"m so sorry, I didn't read the votecount posted two posts above mine, as I was reading through" when you hammer. Okay? Thanks.

[Whiskers]

@AV , cuz both of you are playing the same game. for lack of a better way of saying it. in my experience when people get into the type of argument you and NIN did one tends to be scum. i voted whiskers because she was defending NIN. now if either of you flip scum, then i know exactly who im going after tomorrow. if neither of you flip scum then again i know who im gonna go after.

so i guess to answer your question a bit better, yes im useless today. tomorrow when more information is revealed will be the day that i can play with some certainty

Long before nin flipped scum.
Why is FM

not

mafia?

[bvoigt]

Then unvote her, dumbass. We've been through this once already. Instead of fucking us all an you and your scumpartner passing it off as, "Oh man, I"m so sorry, I didn't read the votecount posted two posts above mine, as I was reading through" when you hammer. Okay? Thanks.

Not gonna happen, and if it does, we have a free scum lynch tomorrow.

[bvoigt]

There's an interesting exchange on page 15 from #353 through #357. Friend, Christine, Whiskers, and Voided talk about the likelihood of there being a cop in the game, and none of them seem to be aware that this is a vanilla game. Friend in particular is pretty sure we have a cop in the game. This is a towntell because scum generally have more need to be aware of the setup, and they will talk about it at the beginning of the game (since, in this case, they have daytalk). 3 heads are more likely to know the setup than 1.

UNVOTE: Christine and Whiskers

[bvoigt]

VOTE: Robotnick2
VOTE: killerjester by PoE.