Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[Amrun]

ebwop: if you vote me nad you're right, you'll DEFINITELY have won the game.

That's what it comes down to: you're confirmed town, and your vote decides the game.

[saulres]

Seriously? You're accusing me of fencesitting when the entire game is on the line?

I'm not going to be intimidated into rushing a vote. And there

is

new information. We had three kills last night which revealed all sorts of new things, and Snake will presumably investigate you and return something (probably not useful but we'll see).

On top of that I've been brought to the final three, I need time to process why I think that is.

I'll vote when I'm ready. Not before, no matter how much pressure you put on me.

[Amrun]

I'm not trying to intimidate you; I'm just a little frustrated because you've played so tight fisted at times. This is not the time for tight-fistedness.

What I am trying to get out of you is WHAT YOU'RE WAITING FOR. You partially answered that question just now, but not until now. I wanted to know what information you felt you were lacking.

I don't necessarily want you to vote. I just want you to be open about your thoughts.

And also I'll be v/la this weekend and I wanted at least some idea of how you were leaning or it would drive me nuts.

[saulres]

If you and Snake both are v/la this weekend, that means I'll get the weekend off from this game! I could use that.

I play tight-fisted for a reason. Sometimes I have an idea and I ask questions to see if I can get someone to slip (see: me thinking Vi and Ace were in collusion on something scummy earlier in this game). I have some thoughts, but telling the scum what they are right now so they can tailor their conversation to me is a horrible idea.

[Amrun]

I get it; I play the same way sometimes, but I'm saying that now, at LyLo, the time for that is over, in my opinion.

My conversation is done. I have presented my cases, and my defenses. It is now up to you.

In summation:

-I sort of botched my claim but I don't care at all; that whole thing was stupid. Up to you though.
-I was riding Junpei from day 1 and tried to get him lynched every single day
-Junpei subsequently tried to kill me
-You know I thought Luxury was doctor, and yet scum never killed Luxury

Snake, on the other hand, has done NOTHING all game. He has an inherently scummy role (rolecop) which wouldn't have served town at all this game. Think about it. Junpei was scum, and yet his role was exactly as he said; he controlled the tiger with you. Snake has coasted and done nothing. Even in LyLo, he is fencesitting to the extreme. He's waiting for one of us to attack the other out of paranoia and leaving his options open.

[Amrun]

A don't like to read into night kills much as it is full of WIFOM as you said. He is certainly lurking a lot as we drift to the deadline though. I'd rather lynch someone who I think is scum though. Perhaps when he is replaced we could get a deadline extension? I think that would be best

8.) If a replacement is required within the second week of a deadline period, 24 hours per RL day it takes to find a replacement will be added to the deadline of the current day.

This rule suggests we won't have much time.

11.) If a player fails to pick up their prod within 48 hours they will be replaced.

This rule suggests that Snake has 41 more hours about until he is replaced. So I guess hoping for a replacement isn't going to help since due to the deadline, we'll get... at max 2 days extra? I don't see the replacement coming up with analysis/reads in that short of time and discussion and us deciding if it is town/scum. So I would rather pursue other leads (Anxiety) and hope we hit scum and give the replacement more time that way.

We have 65 hours left, so you will post tomorrow, Snake. No more "I'm busy". I was hoping that we'd be able to replace you and get an extension, but if you're going to prod dodge, then you will die.

Also, I am preferring an Anxiety lynch right now, and I don't see a comprehensive case on Amrun ANYWHERE. Can someone please point it out to me, because I would like to see it.

Saulres, I am not pointing out my issue with your case because I want Snake to respond to it. Any activity at all from snake would be nice actually.

Well the main reason I want Snake to answer is because I want content and interaction out of him. Tomorrow I will point out what I don't like about it if he hasn't, I don't know what time, but I will.

This series of quotes is obvious scum frustration.

Especially note 1548; "if you prod dodge, you will die," he says, even though he advocates not lynching snake. Obvious coaching. Also he never pointed out those flaws.


In interest of fairness, Junpei did also express that he preferred an anxiety lynch over mine that day, but was willing to hammer.

[SnakePlissken]

Im not, Im at work (Currently on lunchbreak), I was waiting on TripleD, but I decided to investigate you again Amrun. This is what I got:

(A) Murderers: You and your scum partners may choose to submit a kill on a player every night by PMing me the name of the player to be killed and the player doing the killing.

Thats all I need VOTE: Amrun

Oh and just in case

Mod - If the game isn't ended soon Im V/LA until Monday

[SnakePlissken]

Oh and Saulres. It's down to you now.

[saulres]

Gee what a surprise. Snake returns a scum role from investigating Amrun and then votes for her. I never saw that coming

Well actually, to some extent, I didn't. Since the purported role supposedly returns a random result, I didn't expect anything so definitive to come from DDD, I expected to see the Voter line. But, to keep the game fair and the mod's input balanced, the theory of "top-down" could certainly apply here, and that might be a legitimate result.

So much WIFOM, so little time.

I have several "This is a scum tell from Amrun" spots, and I have several "This is a scum tell from Snake" spots.

I have several "This is a town tell from Amrun" spots, and I have a couple of "This is a town tell from Locke" spots (but not really from Snake).

I have strong setup speculation which says Snake is scum. I don't have a parallel for Amrun.

So while I'm leaning voting Snake, I'm now working through the "Why are the three of us still alive?" possibilities, there's a lot to digest in there. I anticipate having a decision and a vote, for better or worse, sometime in the next 7 hours or so.

Meanwhile, Amrun? What's up with this?

Confised by the fact the game is still on....

You went back on that in your next post, but why did you have any confusion to begin with?

[saulres]

Also, Amrun:

CC was trickier, but def gave me weirdvibes as noted.

As noted where, exactly?

[saulres]

Also, Amrun:

CC was trickier, but def gave me weirdvibes as noted.

As noted where, exactly?

nm, found it (you spelled out the name instead of using "CC").

Still want to know why you were surprised the game was still going.

[saulres]

Snake,

I'm fully expecting you to send the tiger after me tonight when we get to the end of this day, as much that if I survive the night, your top of my investigate list.

What changed that you chose to investigate Amrun instead?

[saulres]

Another question for both of you:

Without quoting, could you please paraphrase what it says in your role PM about who The Amazing Kreskin and The Amazing Randi are?

I take back what I said about having a vote in the timeframe I specified earlier, there are still too many things I need to find out and differentiate between. Sorry, people in the dead QT. I hope the rest of you townies appreciate what I'm doing.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 5.1

SnakePlissken (L-1) - Amrun
Amrun (L-1) - SnakePlissken

Not Voting (1) - saulres

Deadline: Thursday November 17 @ 11:00 PM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-17 23:00:00)

[Amrun]

Tbh, I mixed up games and was thinking 2 scum. That obviously makes no sense. My thoughts were just a little jumbled.

*rolls eyes at snake*

[saulres]

And my other question?

could you please paraphrase what it says in your role PM about who The Amazing Kreskin and The Amazing Randi are?

Obviously you for Kreskin and Snake for Randi.

[Amrun]

Missed that. I'm a mentalist who became popular in the 1970s from tv.

[saulres]

k thanks.

Just waiting on Snake now. I hope he can quickly pop in here and answer that.

I'm sorry this is taking so long, I've been quite a bit hampered by the fact that everyone who's been alive since Vi and Ace have been killed are either confirmed anti-town, or extremely infrequent posters, with the exception of 4nxi3ty who basically tunneled me and CC. So quite a lot of what's been said over D3, I'm not finding particularly useful for scum-hunting. Setup speculation, yes, but not so much determining the scum.

[Amrun]

Btw, saul, the reason you were kept alive is obvious in this one case. I agree that at times, this can be the key to the game, but not here.

You were kept alive because once you were dead, it raised the chances of Junpei being scum (since everyone seemed to already suspect him, plus the speculation of one scum in the vigs).

I was kept alive because after the "amazing" thing, scum has been trying to mislynch me ever since and I was the clear bet to be left alive seeing what remained.

[saulres]

I appreciate your input, Amrun, but even though I'm a retiring newbie, I completely grasp the concept of WIFOM. I've been over the various permutations multiple times today and each one is "Well, yes, that could be the reason -- or it could be WIFOM." There are

many

possible reasons I can come up with, and they all end in those five letters.

Meanwhile, it looks like we may have to wait for Snake again. I swear if he's town he's doing his best job of failing to argue for himself. There are two questions waiting for him, one of which is here and the other right below it. That second one takes all of, what, ten seconds to answer? And he was online earlier, looking at this forum, but didn't. It's been frustrating, and isn't getting any less so.

I doubt the answer will help, but I'm really trying my hardest to win this game, and so I'm trying to give him a fair shake. Although at this point I don't think anyone would blame me for just voting him, given the logic behind putting a vote there and his continual reticence.

@SNAKE: Please answer the two questions referred to above as soon as possible so I can end this thing. Thanks.

[Amrun]

That's always the case, though. Everything is WIFOM. Just telling you what I think so it is considered. I'm trying MY hardest to win this game, too, and speaking your mind never hurts.

[saulres]

You know what? Enough's enough, and I need to get this game out of my head. I can't go another weekend.

Logic and gut have both done me well this game, and have screwed me this game. But when they come together I have to trust them.

If Amrun and Junpei have been planning this since the beginning of the game, more power to them. Junpei played a great bluff game, imo, since he doesn't have any tiger ability whatsoever -- it's clear from last night that CC's been doing all the heart removals, and the only successful tiger shot was last night. I'm even nights only, and was blocked N2. Junpei had no nights.

That means that scum had one neighbor (possibly bulletproof) and one powerless goon, and one other. Versus a SK and a town with a part-time vig, a bulletproof neighbor, a neighborizor, and a role-blocker. To put the rolecop on the town side seems heavily balanced against the scum. To put the rolecop on the scum side seems to present more balance, at least to my untrained eyes.

Plus, there's the whole "Look where his votes went" thing which I argued against yesterday.

The real kicker for me is, I don't believe scum knew that Luxury was going to be vigged. I think they thought either Amrun or Junpei would be, most likely Junpei. (And I actually had PMed DDD to vig Junpei even before the day ended. I just changed it after second-guessing myself.) Luxury would be anti-Amrun and pro-Snake. It's WIFOM, but if you believe, as I do, that they had

no reason at all

to think Luxury wouldn't be around today, then it's much less so.

So that's it then.

Vote: Snake

.

I hope I've done right by the rest of the town.

[Amrun]

yaaaaay town wins

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

Vote Count 5.2

SnakePlissken (Lynched) - Amrun, saulres
Amrun (L-1) - SnakePlissken

Not Voting (0)

Deadline: Thursday November 17 @ 11:00 PM Eastern
Countdown: (expired on 2011-11-17 23:00:00)

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

And the two of you decide that Snake must be the last scum; you ask him to do a simple card trick to prove he is who he says he is, but he fumbles through it. The two of you frog march him to the top of the house and tie a rope around his neck and one of the weather vanes and push him off the roof to find…

SnakePlissken –

James Van Praagh lynched D5

Town wins!